Fat Lady Still Humming A Few Bars In Horse of the Year Race

I, and many in racing for that matter, expect history tonight at the Eclipse Awards. When they get down to giving out the golden Eclipse trophy for Horse of the Year, Havre de Grace may become the third consecutive female to be so named. Not since Hanover won the first North American Horse of the year title in 1887, has the title gone to females in three consecutive years.

Only once have females been named Horse of the Year in two consecutive years. Twilight Tear in 1944 and Busher in 1945 pulled the Horse of the Year double so-to-speak nearly 70 years ago. Havre de Grace would also be the fourth female in ten years to be Horse of the Year with Azeri getting the title in 2002. So there is certainly no female bias among the Eclipse Award voters.

Rachel Alexandra was Horse of the Year in 2010 after what many consider to be the greatest campaign ever by an American 3-year-old filly. The record setting Zenyatta was Horse of the Year last year. Both were substantially more popular and accomplished than Havre de Grace, but the now 5-year-old daughter of St. Liam (Horse of the Year himself in 2005) is still the favorite this year.

Of course this could all be for not if Acclamation is named Horse of the Year tonight by the voters at Daily Racing Form, the National Turf Writers Association and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. And that upset could very well happen. At the very least, the race may be closer than some assume.

Like Havre de Grace, Acclamation, who will likely be named champion grass horse and possibly champion handicap horse at the ceremony at the Beverly Wilshire Hotel in Beverly Hills, Ca., won five graded races during the year. Havre de Grace is the heavy favorite to also take home an Eclipse for Handicap Mare.

Both won a major grade 1 race around two turns, against older horses on the main track. Acclamation won the Pacific Classic at Del Mar and Havre de Grace won the Woodward at Saratoga.

Acclamation’s four other wins included the Jim Murray Handicap (gr. IIT) at Hollywood Park, the Charles Whittingham Handicap (gr. IT) at Hollywood Park, the Eddie Read (gr. IT) at Del Mar and the Clement L. Hirsch (gr. IIT) at Santa Anita.

In addition to the Woodward, Havre de Grace won the Azeri (gr. III) and Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. I) at Oaklawn Park, the Obeah Stakes (gr. III) at Delaware Park, the Beldame (gr. I) at Belmont Park.

Havre de Grace had two losses last year: losing in July by a nose in the grade 2 Delaware Handicap to finish second to her nemesis Blind Luck. She ended the year finishing sixth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Acclamation lost twice to start the year before rattling off his five wins in consecutive order. The then 5-year-old horse finished fifth in the Frank E. Kilroe Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita in March, then finished and last of ten in the sloppy Charles Town Classic (gr. III) in West Virginia in February before the Jim Murray.

The Charles Town trip was Acclamation’s only foray away from his base in Southern California running all of his other races at Santa Anita, Hollywood Park and Del Mar. Havre de Grace raced in four different states including Arkansas, Delaware, New York and Kentucky.

Havre de Grace ran up a 2011 bankroll of more than $1.3 million while Acclamation was also a millionaire last year with $1,126,000 in earnings.

So despite the popular notion that Havre de Grace will be named Horse of the Year tonight, it is not a certainty. Looking at the actual 2011 race records and statistics of the two horses, there are actually few things that separate them. Havre de Grace will probably get points from certain voters for her travel schedule and for continuing her rivalry with Blind Luck during the year. (The two met for the fifth and sixth time this year: each winning one while the other was second.) Acclamation may be more popular among west coast voters.

No matter where the votes come from or why, tonight's Eclispe Award announcement for Horse of the Year, may be just a little more dramatic than some assume. If not dramatic, at least the Fat Lady has not completely ended her performance.

Havre de Grace Was Tops In A Difficult Year

It has been a rough year for the Horse of the Year award. So troubled has the year been for those horses pursuing the golden Eclipse award, that I have pondered the dilemma for more than a week since the completion of the Breeders’ Cup, and still, I am not adamant about my selection.

For disclosure, I do not vote for Horse of the Year. That honor has been bestowed upon the folks at Daily Racing Form and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. But if I did have a vote this year, I would approach it the following way.

It would be difficult to give the award to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer (photo right). His only victory this year other than the Classic came in the $60,000 One Count Stakes at Belmont Park in May. No matter the significance of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it needs a little more help than the One Count Stakes to confirm a Horse of the Year.

Others under consideration had difficult days at the Breeders’ Cup that may have eliminated them from Horse of the Year. The Breeders' Cup is billed as the World Championship after all.

Goldikova was attempting an unprecedented fourth consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile hoping to add to her record three straight, but was unable to overcome a trip filled with traffic difficulties this and finished third. And one third place finish in American does not a Horse of the Year make.

Classic favorite Flat Out went into the Breeders’ Cup off of a win in the grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, two seconds in the Woodward and Whitney, Saratoga’s two main events for older horses, and third in the grade 2 Suburban Handicap at Belmont in July. Flat Out also had one of the better human interest stories this year in 70-year-old trainer Charles “Scooter” Dickey, but a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic compromised the Horse of the Year chances for Flat Out.

Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom should also be considered. Although Animal Kingdom has not run since finishing sixth in the Belmont Stakes June 11, the Kentucky is certainly the most noteworthy race in America and its winner she be duly noted.

There is also some precedent for Animal Kingdom being named Horse of the Year – at least from a chronological standpoint. In 1999, Cat Thief won the Breeders’ Cup Classic at nearly 20-to-1 odds over favored Behrens in seventh. That year Charismatic was named Horse of the Year after being injured in the Belmont Stakes and not running thereafter. Like Animal Kingdom, Charismatic won the Kentucky Derby but unlike Animal Kingdom, also had a victory in the Preakness and in the grade 2 Lexington. Animal Kingdom has the grade 2 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes win to match Charasmatic's Lexington and of course the Kentucky Derby, but no Preakness.

Stay Thirsty is another from the 3-year-old ranks that should get some attention from the Horse of the Year voters. He has three graded stakes wins this year in the Travers (gr. 1), Jim Dandy (gr. 2) and Gotham Stakes (gr. 3). Hurting him, however, was his performance in the Kentucky Derby (12th) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (11th).

Game On Dude deserves consideration from Horse of the Year voters based on his two grade 1 victories this year in the Santa Anita Handicap in March and the Goodwood Stakes, again at Santa Anita, in October. He was also second in the grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup this summer but probably still needed to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic to solidify the Horse of the Year award. Zenyatta can run second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and be named Horse of the Year. But can Game On Dude do it? I’m not so sure.

Having the best record in the most graded stakes this year was the filly Havre de Grace (photo left). She won five of seven starts in 2012, three of which were grade 1 including a win over older males in the Woodward. Her fourth-place finish in the Classic and the fact that four of her five wins came against fillies and mares will be her Achilles heel among Eclipse voters.

Unlike Favorite Trick in 1997 and Secretariat in 1972, the 2012 Horse of the Year is not likely to come from the 2-year-old ranks. Like Favorite Trick, Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Hansen finished the year undefeated, but that was only Hansen’s third start of the year and first in graded stakes company. Hansen’s other victories, while impressive with 12-1/4 and 12-1/4 winning margins, came in the $95,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile and a maiden race, both at Turfway Park.

Juvenile Favorite Union Rags has wins in the grade 2 Saratoga Special and grade 1 Champagne Stakes but very much needed to win the Juvenile in order to be considered for Horse of the Year. Instead, a second place keeps him in contention for divisional honors, but probably not for Horse of the Year.

Maybe the Horse of the Year title will go to a horse that did not run in the Breeders’ Cup. Acclamation finished 2012 with five consecutive wins in graded stakes including three grade 1 wins – something only he has accomplished this year. His grade 1 victories came in the Charlie Whittingham Stakes at Hollywood Park and the Eddie Read and Pacific Classic at Del Mar. A tenth-place finish in the grade 3 Charles Town Classic and no appearance in the Breeders’ Cup will be the hurdles facing Acclamation with voters. They will just have to decide what is the biggest detriment to a Horse of the Year - losing in the Breeders’ Cup or not running at all.

It has been a difficult year for racing stars. Again the Kentucky Derby has failed to win another race after the Run for the Roses and a long shot takes the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont winner Ruler On Ice also finished the year with no victories after their trips to the winners’ circle in their respective Triple Crown races.

I don’t have a vote in the Eclipse Awards, but for records’ sake, Havre de Grace deserves to become the third consecutive female to be named Horse of the Year in a close call over Acclamation. Helping Havre de Grace is her appearance at five different tracks this year in four different states. Acclamation raced at four tracks in two states. Havre de Grace raced primarily against females while Acclamation won most of his races on the grass. However, both have grade 1 wins against older male horses on dirt around two turns. Neither Acclamation nor Havre de Grace won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but it has been four years since Curlin won the Classic and the Horse of the year.

It is not an easy year to vote for Horse of the Year, but it should again go to another female. She may not be as accomplished at her most recent predecessors, but seldom ever have been. What matters is that Havre de Grace had the best year of any thoroughbred this year.

And for that, Havre de Grace should be honored with golden Eclipse Award for a rich and accomplished year.

Breeders' Cup Picture Comes Into Focus

Three impressive winners of grade 1 races Saturday are heading for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic according to their connections, and the trio will likely make up the top three favorites when they go to the post beneath the twin spires of Churchill Downs. One female superstar is among them while another won’t be going to Kentucky to renew the best rivalry in Thoroughbred racing in recent years. A $3 million showdown in the Breeders’ Cup Turf was highly anticipated Sunday evening, but will not materialize as we know now. And then there was that crazy uncle.

That's how the 2011 Breeders’ Cup, to be run Nov. 5,6 at Churchill Downs, is coming into focus.

The three big winners headed for the Classic are Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) winner Flat Out, Goodwood Stakes (gr. 1) winner Game On Dude and the filly who won the Beldame (gr. 1) with ease, Havre de Grace.

Flat Out may have taken the lead away from the absent Tizway in the older horse division with a convincing win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over 2010 Belmont (gr. 1) winner Drosselmeyer and this year's Travers (gr. 1) winner Stay Thirsty. After winning the grade 2 Suburban at Belmont in July, Flat Out finished the summer running second to Tizway in the Whitney and second to the filly Havre de Grace in the Woodward. With neither in the Gold Cup, Flat Out capitalized and provided an emotional victory for midwest journeyman trainer Charles Dickey.

As impressive as Havre de Grace was in New York however, her nemesis Blind Luck was equally puzzling in California Saturday. Before finishing last by 18 lengths behind winner Zazu in the Ladies Secret Stakes (gr. 1), Blind Luck and never finished worse than second in 21 previous races. According to reports as recent as today, trainer and part owner Jerry Hollendorfer has said they have found no problems but Blind Luck will be heading toward a vacation and will miss the Breeders’ Cup. Blind Luck and Havre de Grace have raced against each other six times in the last two years with Blind Luck winning three and Havre de Grace two. In the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic last year won by Unrivaled Belle, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace finished second and third respectively as 3-year-olds.

As Jay Privman mentioned in his Blind Luck update today in Daily Racing Form, “With Blind Luck out of the Ladies’ Classic, and Havre de Grace headed to the BC Classic against males, the top two females in the country are both now bypassing that race, leaving 3-year-olds such as Zazu, Beldame runner-up Royal Delta, and Cotillion Stakes winner Plum Pretty among the leading contenders.”

Zazu iz zertainly, no Zenyata, but zhe doez have the zame Jerry and Ann Moss teal and pink colorz and runz with a zimilar, clozing running ztyle.

Many consider Acclamation, with his four consecutive grade 1 victories, a Horse of the Year candidate and the same can almost can be said of Cape Blanco. This weekend Acclamation won the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. 2) at Santa Anita on the turf for his fifth straight graded stakes win, while Cape Blanco won his third consecutive grade 1 turf stake by taking the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. 1) at Belmont Saturday. Acclamation may still go to the Breeders’ Cup Classic instead of the Turf Classic, but any chance of a showdown between the two was dashed when Anne Marie O’Brien (wife of trainer Aidan O'Brien) tweeted Monday as @aobballydoyle, “Cape Blanco has been retired to stud following an injury he sustained when winning the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont”.

Uncle Mo fans (led by owner Mike Repole I might add) have certainly been on a roller coaster year in 2011. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Champion Two-Year-Old Male cruised in his first win of the year in an ungraded stake in Florida before expecting to take the Resorts World Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) waltz into the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) as the favorite. But at some point, a liver infliction hit Uncle Mo and he not only finished third in the Wood, but also missed the Derby and much of the year before making a return four months later in the King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga last month. He finished second, but it was only by a nose to Caleb's Posse and as learned later, with front shoe nearly twisted off in the final sixteenth of a mile.

If some thought that the big return may have drained Uncle Mo, few put money in the mutuel machines to back their belief as Uncle Mo went to the gate as odds on favorite in the Kelso at 6-to-10. Off of a very nice win in the Forego Stakes (gr. 1), Jackson Bend figured to threaten Uncle Mo on paper in the Kelso, and actually tried to do so in the race.

As the short Kelso field raced around the big Belmont Park turn, Uncle Mo lead but Jackson Bend and jockey Corey Nakatani had him in their sights. And as Jackson Bend got closer to Uncle Mo, it seemed he got faster with every stride and passing the leader looked near certain. But as Jackson Ben raced up on the inside of Uncle Mo just as they straightened away for home, John Valenzuela on Uncle Mo would not allow Jackson Bend through along the rail. Suddenly, Uncle Mo was an Italian jail and Jackson Bend was Amanda Knox – trapped and no way to get out.

By the time Nakatani emphatically steered Jackson Bend to the outside to pass, Valenzuela gave an acceleration signal of some type to Uncle Mo and he blasted away from Jackson Bend and won the Kelso by three lengths.

So impressive was the win, that despite receiving free entry fees into the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Repole told reporters that Uncle Mo was Classic bound. There he is expected to meet Havre de Grace, Flat Out and Game on Dude.

What was I said about the favorites in the Classic again?

Stars Casting Healthy Glow Over Big Thoroughbred Racing Weekend

Breeders’ Cup fever will reach new heights this Saturday as Belmont Park features their Super Saturday card and Santa Anita offers five stakes with Breeders’ Cup implications during their opening weekend.

Super Saturday offers six graded stakes – five of them grade 1 – worth $2.7 million. All six of the races are “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs and will be telecast on ESPN Classic and ESPN3 from 4:30 – 7:30 pm EDT. The five grade 1s are the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup for older horses at a 1-1/4 miles, the $350,000 Beldame at 1-1/8 miles for fillies and mares, and the $350,000 Vosburg at six furlongs; all on the main track; and the $500,000 Joe Hirsch and $500,000 Flower Bowl on grass. The $200,000 Kelso at one mile is grade 2.

Saturday Santa Anita offers the $250,000 Norfolk Stakes for 2-year-olds, the $250,000 Goodwood Stakes for older horses at 1-1/8 miles; fillies and mares at 1-1/4 miles on grass in the $250,000 Yellow Ribbon presented by Emirates Airline and the $250,000 Lady’s Secret, fillies and mares at 1-1/8 miles. The $250,000 Oak Leaf (gr. 1) for 2-year-old fillies on Sunday will round out the grade 1 action at Santa Anita. All are also “Win and You’re In” races for the Breeders’ Cup.

Typically, the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita and the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont are the spot light races, even during this annually star-studded weekend. Both races are in the heavy weight division of horses racing - older horses going around two turns on the main track. It is also a division that has grown to include the sophomore males, some with Triple Crown race titles, others with credentials from other major derbies and stakes this summer.

But this weekend, both tracks need to toss their spot lights and rely on the glow that will be coming off of all the stars in these races.

The Goodwood looks to be shaping up as a bit of a West Coast championship with the likes of Haskell winner Coil and Santa Anita Handicap winner Game On Dude coming from the Bob Baffert Barn. Twirling Candy, a multiple graded stakes winner that has danced all the marquee dances in Southern California this year is also set to go at it again. Pacific Classic (gr. 1) winner Acclamation, who would be favored if he runs, is also entered Sunday in the Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita Sunday. Trainer Don Warren and part owner Bud Johnston are still deciding whether Acclamation will run in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic or the $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Although the Goodwood boys have their Horse of the Year aspirations, perhaps the horse running at Santa Anita with the best chance at the 2011 golden Eclipse Award is a filly. Blind Luck has won three consecutive graded stakes this year including the July 16 Delaware Handicap (gr. 1) over nemesis Havre de Grace. (More on her later) Blind Luck trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has elected to keep his accomplished filly closer to home to prepare for the Breeder’s Cup and has also decided to run against fellow females in the Lady’s Secret. Although Hollendorfer has said he never considered the Goodwood, he had earlier thought of running Blind Luck against older males in the Pacific Classic.

Similar circumstances exist in New York where Travers Stakes winner Stay Thirsty is the expected favorite in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Although the race has been hit by the defection of Whitney winner Tizway, there remains and interesting and accomplished group.

Flat Out is now the most popular older horse in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, having won the Suburban (gr. 1) at Belmont Park this summer before finishing second in both the Whitney and Woodward (gr. 1) at Saratoga. There are also two stars from last year’s Triple Crown races making grade 1 comebacks in the Gold Cup. Ice Box, the Nick Zito trainee who won the Florida Derby (gr. 1) and was second in the Kentucky Derby behind winner Super Saver last year; and 2010 Belmont winner Drosselmeyer, are both entered.

Just as in California, however, the leading contender for Horse of the Year in New York, is a 4-year-old filly. Havre de Grace, who defeated the boys in the grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga in her last race, now has four wins from five starts this year, two of which are grade 1. Havre de Grace also takes her victory in the Apple Blossom (over Blind Luck BTW) into the Beldame at Belmont.

If ever there was a horse road warrior or an equine frequent flyer, Cape Blanco could easily fit the bill. Based at trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Europe, the son of Galileo has come to the United States and won the Man O’ War at Belmont and the Arlington Million at Arlington Park near Chicago, two races beyond their grade 1 status in significance.

Saturday Cape Blanco will try for his American hat trick in the Joe Hirsch Memorial, where he should be favored over the five challengers that include solid stakes winners Mission Approved and Dean’s Kitten.

Uncle Mo, the brilliant champion 2-year-old last year who nearly went to the Kentucky Derby as the favorite this year before liver problems sidelined him, also makes the second start of his comeback. Last month, Uncle Mo came just a nose short of winning the King’s Bishop Stakes over eventual winner Caleb’s Posse. Despite missing the Triple Crown and all of the summer derbies, Uncle Mo will take plenty of support into the one mile Kelso, perhaps training for the $1 million Breeders Cup Dirt Mile – although the Breeders’ Cup Classic is still under consideration by trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole.

There are more stars to ponder and more races to handicap from Saturday; plenty to keep fans happy and players a playin’.

And to think this is only a precursor…