Brock Belmont Bet Swings Hard

To those who believe Ice Box was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby and that he will benefit from the additional quarter-mile distance of the “Big Sandy,” the Belmont must be an easy race to handicap. And that of course, is the reason he is the 3-1 favorite. Coming from the popular barn of Nick Zito doesn’t hurt the colt’s popularity either.

But Ice Box won’t get the fast Derby pace in the Belmont. In fact, I predict quite the opposite. The first half-mile of the Belmont is often a gallop. And sometimes the pace remains slow during the first mile. That puts a lot of pressure on a closer and his jockey and gives me enough ammunition to eliminate Ice Box.

So pace makes the race right? And First Dude will get to that easy, uncontested lead (even from the #11 post position) and gallop to the finish line.

Nope. I’m not betting that either. To beat First Dude, I’m incorporating the “bounce” handicapping theory. That is, I’m betting that he won’t repeat the Preakness performance in which he almost wired the field to run a gallant second to Lookin at Lucky. I’m not usually a “bounce” advocate, but First Dude ran a race that is significantly better than anything he produced prior to that Preakness. I have to believe he will regress at least somewhat off of that giant performance.

How do I beat Dwyer winner Fly Down then? I can’t. I think this Nick Zito trainee looks primed for a big performance in the Belmont. He has all of the home field advantage, which can sometimes be very important in the Belmont Stakes. He has a win over the track, New York top jockey John Velazquez and Zito.

So how I am going to justify betting against Fly Down? On value alone. With all of the New York support, he is likely to be over bet. And with an evenly matched field like this Belmont, value is my prime directive.

So that leads me to my top choice: Uptowncharlybrown. This horse has been pointed toward the Belmont Stakes since early this year by late trainer Alan Seewald and he is in able Belmont hands now in the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin. McLaughlin is a former D. Wayne Lukas assistant who won the 2006 Belmont with Jazil and I’m betting he will do it again here with Uptowncharlybrown.

His third-place finish in the Lexington was against a speed favoring racetrack that compromised his chances and the winner of that race, Exhi, came back to impressively win the Marine Stakes at Woodbine. Uptowncharlybrown also gets jockey Rajiv Maragh and all of his Belmont Park success and experience to negotiate the dynamics of the largest oval in North American racing. McLaughlin has also taken the blinkers off of Uptowncharlybrown, which should allow him to be much closer to the pace and within striking distance at the top of the stretch.

My other key horse – again swinging for the IRS window fences here a little bit – is Interactif, from the Kentucky Derby winning connections of trainer Todd Pletcher and WinStar Farm. No horse has ever won the Belmont Stakes from the number 12 post position, but I don’t think Interactif and jockey Javier Castellano will have any problem settling into a stalking position.

If he takes to the Belmont Park surface during the last half of the Belmont the way he has for the last two weeks of training, he is a prime candidate to win the Test of Champions at a decent price.
Because I’m looking for some bigger prices in the Belmont, I’m going to reduce my investments by playing exactas only. So I’m going to key my two upset contenders to run first or second with the three logical winners and betting favorites.

$2 Exacta (8 Bets. Total Cost = $16)
1st - 3-12
2nd – 3-5-6-11-12

$2 Exacta (8 Bets. Total Cost = $16)
1st – 3-5-6-11-12
2nd – 3-12

Total cost is $32.

We need #3 Uptowncharlybrown or #12 Interactif to finish first or second along with #5 Fly Down, #6 Ice Box or #11 First Dude completing the exacta. Note however, that if Uptowncharlybrown and Interactif finish first and second in any order, we hit the exacta twice.

Good luck Belmont fans.

Belmont Stakes Takes Shape With Large Field

The field for Saturday's Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) continues to take shape as trainer Todd Pletcher has indicated Interactif is now on schedule for the Belmont after his two most recent morning works convinced the trainer "to take a shot."

Having not started since a fourth-place finish in the grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland April 10, Pletcher told Daily Racing Form "He's been training really well on the dirt here. His work two back was really good and then he came back with another big work," he said, referring to the Saturday 1:00.41 clocking over five-eighths of a mile.

That brings the field size for the third leg of the Triple Crown to 12 with Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) runner-up Ice Box as the probable favorite. Ice Box will inherit the betting window popularity with the absence of Derby and Preakness winners Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky respectively. But the son of Pulpit also has several other factors in his favor coming into the Belmont.

Ice Box, who won the grade 1 Florida Derby just prior to the Derby, is trained by Nick Zito (top photo). The popular New Yorker who is looking for his third Belmont stakes after winning with Birdstone in 2004 and Da'Tara in 2008. Ice Box also has a furious late rally in his armament that many feel will be conducive to the long 1-1/2 mile Belmont.

Zito will take the home field advantage one step further with his other Belmont entry, Fly Down. In his last race, the son of Mineshaft roared to a six-length victory over fellow Belmont contender Drosselmeyer in the 1-1/8 mile Dwyer Stakes (gr. 2) at Belmont Park May 8. Fly Down has since looked good in two solid four furlong (1/2 mile) works at Belmont Park including a bullet work (fastest work at that distance that morning) Sunday in 47 2/5 seconds.

Monday morning at Belmont, Drosselmeyer put in a sparkling morning effort working five furlongs in :59 3/5 seconds. Last week Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott had indicated the promising young son of Distorted Humor had perhaps bruised his front "frogs" (the shock absorbers located on the sole of a horse's feet) and Daily Racing Form reported Drosselmeyer had worked in a protective bar shoe Monday. Mott has also indicated, however, that they do not intend to run Drosselmeyer with the bar shoe in the Belmont.

A $600,000 yearling purchase by owner WinStar Farm, Drosselmeyer missed qualifying for the Kentucky Derby after a fourth in the grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and a third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2), both at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. WinStar Farm would go on to win the Kentucky Derby with Super Saver and Drosslemeyer was pointed to the Belmont via the Dwyer.

While the Derby bridesmaid Ice Box will be getting much attention in the Belmont, the other Triple Crown race runner-up is sure to get some winning bets as well. First Dude almost went wire-to-wire in the Preakness and only lost to Lookin at Lucky by three-quarters of a length after a stretch-long battle. The Preakness by most handicapping standards, was a more impressive race than the Derby which seems to work in First Dude's favor. Those that favor speed horses in the long Belmont will also like First Dude, but he will likely have to run back to that career-best Preakness form to be a contender in the Belmont. So the handicapping "bounce" theory will be working against him Saturday.

Trainer Bob Baffert, who won the Preakness with Lookin at Lucky, will bring the "other" Dude in the Belmont Saturday when he leads Lone Star Derby (gr. 3) winner Game On Dude (left photo) to the paddock. While the Lone Star Derby was light on competition, the stalking four-length victory in Texas may be the right preparation for a horse that is perhaps improving this time of year.

Baffert won the 2001 Belmont with Preakness winner Point Given but has also experienced some of his most heartbreaking moments in racing in the Test of Champions. He narrowly lost the Triple Crown in 1987 with Silver Charm and again the next year when Real Quiet lost by a scant nose in New York after winning the Derby and Preakness. Four years later, the front running War Emblem stumbled at the start of the Belmont after winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown and finished a well beaten eighth in New York.

While the 2010 3-year-old crop has come under deserved scrutiny for their mediocrity compared to other classes, the Belmont continues to be an American classic based on it's Triple Crown status and more importantly the long distance. There have been plenty of late developing sophomore thoroughbreds that have had their coming out party in the Belmont including horses such as Summer Bird, Lemon Drop Kid, Tabasco Cat and Easy Goer to a certain degree.

At the very least, it is an intriguing betting race with a large field and many capable winners. Whether it is again a Test of Champions remains to be seen Saturday and during the remaining months of the 2010 season.

Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass are Open Affairs

After watching Eskendereya's magnificent Wood Memorial (gr. 1) performance last week, one may wonder about the significance of this weekend's two grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands prep races. Of the 18 3-year-olds entered in the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, only Uh Oh Bango has a race with a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure. And that was a 102 Beyer last September in the $53,000 Prairie Meadows Juvenile.

Eskendereya has done so in his last two races with a 106 Beyer in the Wood and a 102 in the Fountain of Youth. Not since Point Given in 2001 has a 3-year-old come into the Kentucky Derby looking so dominant. In fact, Point Given is the only horse during the last decade to go to the post with less than 2-1 odds.

Point Given finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Ironically, that is the average finish of the last ten Kentucky Derby favorites. Only Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Street Sense in 2007 and Big Brown the following year have won the Run for the Roses as the most popular betting choice.

The Arkansas Derby has produced two Derby winners during that time and seems to have the stronger cast on Saturday.

Todd Pletcher continues to unleash his 2010 armament on Derby contenders by bringing Super Saver to Arkansas and has been tabbed the 9-5 morning line favorite. Owned by WinStar Farm, Super Saver was third behind Odysseus and Schoolyard dreams as the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby March 13 in his first start of the year.

But Noble's Promise may wind up as the fan's betting choice in Arkansas as well as the winner of the race if he can continue to improve off of his only start of the year. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, Nobel's Promise just missed hanging on against the highly regarded Lookin' at Lucky in the grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, also March 13. Although Lookin' at Lucky was rattled with trouble that day, Noble's Promise was forced three-wide on the turn in the Rebel and still produced a field best 98 Beyer.

Four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas still has Dublin on the Derby trail after his third place finish in the Rebel. He also was plagued by bad luck as he was forced four and five wide on both turns and appeared to bump Lookin at Lucky down the backstretch as well. Oaklawn Park veteran Terry Thompson gets the return mount on the son of Afleet Alex and may be looking for a slow and relaxing early trip Saturday.



In Lexington, Kentucky Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince has been installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite, just ahead of Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus at 7-2. Just behind them are the Pletcher duo of Aikenite and Interactif at 4-1.

Again, we have a wide open race in which I'm most interested to see Odysseus run again. His victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, while not overly impressive on paper, was about as much as one would want to see in terms of determination and late acceleration.

After appearing as if finished coming out of the far turn (even track announcer Richard Gunter called Odysseus as done for the day), jockey Rajiv Maragh suddenly found more inside the final eighth of a mile. By that time, they were behind a wall of horses and as if suddenly being recharged, began to run again and somehow got for the win. That made it 3 consecutive for the Tom Albertrani trainee and with any improvement in maturity, should be the one to beat at Keeneland.



Personal Ensign Dies

Personal Ensign, the Zenyatta of the late 1980s passed away at her home at Claiborne Farmin Paris, Kentucky. She was 26.

Ranked among the greatest racing mares of all time with an undefeated record in 13 career starts. Her two most memorable races included the 1988 Whitney Stakes (gr. 1) when she defeated Gulch and King's Swan as the odds-on favorite and the thrilling Breeders' Cup Distaff later that year. In her final race, Personal Ensign appeared to be defeated by Kentucky Derby winning filly Winning Colors only to get up to win a nose to cap her perfect career.