Vale May Be Lifted Off Derby Trail

The Derby trail has never run through Dubai as we have illustrated before, but Vale of York's journey may have ended a bit more abruptly than expected.

The win in the Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) over future champion Lookin' at Lucky in November, placed Vale of York (photo) among the early Kentucky Derby contenders. But that dream appears to be side-tracked - if not off track - after a dull fifth-place performance in the 1-3/16 mile Al Bastakiya Stakes at Meydan Racecourse in Dubai Mar. 4.

It wasn't so much the fifth place finish that was troubling as the way in which Vale of York seemed uncomfortable from start to finish in the Al Bastakiya. Jockey Ahmed Ajtebi was forced to battle Vale of York early in the race as the horse threw his head and not finding a comfortable stride. Once settled, Vale of York appearded to make a mild move around the far turn, but flattened out late.

Should Vale of York remain pointed for Kentucky, the logical next race would be the $2 million UAE Derby (gr. 2) Mar. 27 where he will likely again face Mendip, the easy 6 1/4-length winner of the Al Bastakiya and a possible Derby horse for the powerful Goldophin Racing.

Add Wow Wow Wow To My Derby Hopefuls
You don't have to think a horse is going to win the Kentucky Derby to say you "like" him. Part of the fun of the pre-Kentucky Derby season is following the apparent not-so-obviously-great and see if they may blossom by the time the first Saturday in May rolls around.

Backtalk, recent winner of the Sportsman's Paradise Stakes at Delta Downs is such a horse for me. So is Wow Wow Wow.

My fondness for Wow Wow Wow has less to do with the horse, really, and more to do with trainer D. Wayne Lukas. With Wow Wow Wow shipping from his base at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas to New York for the grade 3 Gotham Stakes, it means Lukas has multiple chances at winning his fifth Kentucky Derby with Southwest Stakes runner-up Dublin also coming from the his barn.

Should Lukas somehow take his fifth Derby, it will break the current tie with H.J. "Dick" Thompson, who won his four Derbies with Behave Yourself (1921), Bubbling Over (1926), Burgoo King (1932), Brokers Tip (1933) and leave him one shy of Ben A. Jones' six. Jones won with Lawrin (1938), Whirlaway (1941), Pensive (1944), Citation (1948), Ponder (1949) and Hill Gail (1952) with Citation and Whirlaway both taking the Triple Crown.

Lukas won his Kentucky Derbies with Winning Colors (1988), Thunder Gulch (1995),
Grindstone (1996) and Charismatic in 1999. But his Derby wins tell only a fraction of the story of his Hall of Fame career. Lukas was the first trainer to hit the $100 million mark in earnings and has five Preakness and four Belmont wins on his resume as well. Only Lukas and Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons have 13 wins in Triple Crown races.

Lukas, a former school teacher and Quarter Horse trainer, has a record 42 starters in the Kentucky Derby, the most recent was Flying Private finishing last a year ago. Before that, Going Wild finished 18th in 2005. He started eight Derby horses in the '00 decade with only Proud Citizen lighting the board with his second place finish behind War Emblem in 2002.

Wow Wow Wow will have to improve off of his eighth-place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Jan. 18, and appeared to get better while coming back to win an allowance race at Oaklawn in February.

Given that, the Gotham seems to makes sense on two fronts for Wow Wow Wow. Back home in Arkansas, Lukas will send Dublin to the Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) on March 13 where he will likely face Lookin at Lucky and Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) winner Conveyance which may prove to difficult a test for a horse like Wow Wow Wow looking to gain confidence.

The Gotham Stakes is headed by lukewarm morning line favorite Awesome Act, a British import with only a maiden victory in his win column who made his first trip to the new world last November to finish fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. While the other main contenders are Peppi Knows, winner of the Whirlaway Stakes at Aqueduct Feb. 6; and Nacho Friend, making his first start since finishing a traffic riddled fourth behind Balktalk in the Sanford Stakes (gr. 2) at Saratoga last summer.

Like most stakes for 3-year-olds run this time of year, the Gotham's link to the Kentucky Derby is sporadic at best, but still has a rich history. Last year I Want Revenge went on to take the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) and was among the Derby favorites before an injury forced him off the track.

Other Gotham winners include 1995 Preakness winner Red Bullet, 1989 Belmont Stakes winner Easy Goer, future multiple champion Lure won the 1992 Gotham and Secretariat won the 1973 Gotham on his way to immortality.

According to Daily Racing Form, Lukas is 0-for-10 in the Gotham going back to 1985. but a good race by Wow Wow Wow could change that, and perhaps a chance at little more.

The Humility of Derby Futures

Churchill Downs will open the wagering windows for the 2010 Kentucky Derby when they begin taking bets on Pool 1 of their Kentucky Derby Future Wager Friday, Feb 12. Fans and players will have three days to wager on the first pool of the Future Wager which closes Sunday night and for a period of time they may also have the notion, confidence and thrill of having a possible Derby winner.

It may not be the best investment, but it's one of the things that makes the game fun. Let's face it, the invention of an ego pill would do a lot toward world peace but it would not be the best thing for horse racing.

There are few surprises in Churchill Downs' odds as the 5-2 favorite is "All Other 3-Year Olds" and Champion 2-Year-Old Colt Lookin at Lucky is the 8-1 favorite among the 23 individual horses listed. Buddy's Saint, Conveyance, Jackson Bend and Rule are all next at 12-1.

The surprise for some may come looking towards the other end of mutuel spectrum as notables Vale of York (photo) and Ron the Greek are toting longshot odds of 30-1. Vale of York won the prestigious Breeders' Cup Juvenile over Lookin at Lucky in November and Ron the Greek was an impressive winner of the recent Lecomte Stakes at Fairgrounds. So there is value there if you're a fan and history may not be as much against you as you might think.

A quick look at the last three Lecomte winners justifies the long odds as none of them went on to win the Derby. However, all of them at least made it into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Friesan Fire, the Larry Jones-trained Lecomte winner last year, even went into the gate in Kentucky as the post time favorite at 7-2 odds. Despite the popularity however, Friesan Fire did not enjoy the most exciting two minutes in sports and finished 18th behind winner Mine That Bird.

Two years earlier in 2007, Jones took Lecomte winner Hard Spun to Kentucky. The circumstances were similar but the results quite different as 10-1 shot Hard Spun finished second to Street Sense in the Derby. In 2008, Steve Asmussen won the Lecomte with Z Fortune who went on to finish 10th in the Derby.

Street Sense, by the way, was the first and last horse to pull off the Breeders' Cup Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double - which is what Vale of York will be trying for should he make it to Louisville on the first Saturday in May.

In fact, Street Sense is one of only five this century to win the Juvenile and come back to start in the Derby the following year. Of the previous four Breeders' Cup Juvenile winners to start in the Derby since 2000, Anees finished 13th in the '00 Derby, Johannesburg finished 8th in '02, and Action This Day and Wilko both finished sixth in their respective Kentucky Derbies in '04 and '05.

Vale of York will also apparently be battling the Dubai curse having been shipped to the United Arab Emirates to prepare for the Derby by owner Sheik Maktoum's Goldphin Racing.

Since it's inception in 2000, only four of the ten UAE winners have made it the Kentucky Derby including inaugural UAE victor China Visit who finished sixth in the Run for the Roses. UAE Derby winner Express Tour was eighth in the 2001 Kentucky Derby while Essence of Dubai was ninth in his run for the roses. Last year, UAE Derby winner Regal Ransom finished eighth behind Mine That Bird while UAE runner-up and stablemate Desert Party was 14th.

Sheik Maktoum and his Godolphin Racing also failed in the Kentucky Derby with Worldly Manner and Curule, who both finished seventh in 1999 and 2000 respectively after they also prepared for the Derby in the Middle East.

So even with impressive credentials - be it in December, February or May, in Louisiana, California or Dubai - the Kentucky Derby has a way of monitoring humility.


Kentucky Derby Future Wager
Pool 1
1. Aikenite (30-1)
2. American Lion (20-1)
3. Buddy’s Saint (12-1)
4. Concord Point (30-1)
5. Conveyance (12-1)
6. Dave In Dixie (20-1)
7. Drosselmeyer (20-1)
8. Dryfly (20-1)
9. Dublin (15-1)
10. Eskendereya (20-1)
11. Jackson Bend (12-1)
12. Lookin At Lucky (8-1)
13. Make Music For Me (50-1)
14. Maximus Ruler (50-1)
15. Noble’s Promise (15-1)
16. Ron the Greek (30-1)
17. Rule (12-1)
18. Stay Put (50-1)
19. Super Saver (15-1)
20. Tiz Chrome (20-1)
21. Uptowncharlybrown (50-1)
22. Vale of York (30-1)
23. William’s Kitten (30-1)
24. All Other 3YOs (5-2)

A Closer Look At The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Jinx

The psychiatric condition commonly referred to a PBCS (Post Breeders' Cup Syndrome) aflects thousands of racing fans each year at this time with anxiety and mild depression caused by a sudden decrease in handicapping and the placing of losing trifecta and Pick-4 tickets into a tax records shoe box.

Researchers believe the side effects of this affliction may be reduced this year due to the embattled debate over Horse of the Year, but recommend that persons suffering from PBCS be prepared for a reoccurance of symptoms once the annoncement is made as to who gets the golden Eclipse Award.

Little is know about this disease other than early handicapping of the Kentucky Derby and perscribed daily plays on Gulfstream, Hollywood Park, Santa Anita and Aqueduct winter racing have been known to ease the suffering.

I'm not a psychiatrist... I just play one on this blog.

I must warn you that my therapy begins by taking you to a very dark, dark place that many of you may have already erased from your memory due to the shock and pain you may have felt when you first experienced the event.

I'm sorry. But I think it's important that we talk about the Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile now. I know Lookin at Lucky may have been your key horse. Or if he wasn't, I doubt Vale of York was. It's painful. I know. But let's push through this together.

History tells us that Vale of York has little chance of pulling off the Breeders' Cup Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double. Only Street Sense in 2006-07 has been able to accomplish the feat of taking the Juvenile and repeating in the Kentucky Derby winner's circle some six months later.

His connections of trainer Saeed bin Suroor and Goldophin Racing certainly have a good record of getting horses to the Kentucky Derby - having been to the run for the roses with seven horses going back to Worldly Manner in 1999 who finished seventh. The problem lies in looking at their results after each respective Derby. As a team their best finish came in 2000 when China Visit finished sixth and Curule was seventh. They have also finished eighth twice with Express Tour in 2001 and Regal Ransom last year; ninth with Essence of Dubai in 2002 and 14th with Desert Party, also in 2009.

The news doesn't get much better for Juvenile runner-up Lookin at Lucky, although he races from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert who has won three Kentucky Derbies with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem.

The historical bad news is two-fold for Lookin at Lucky however. First, none of those Baffert-trained Derby winners even started in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and never has a Juvenile runner-up come back to win the Derby. Although 10 of the Juvenile bride's maids have made to the Derby the following year, the best Derby finish by a Juvey second-place finisher goes to Easy Goer who pulled off a Juvenile-Derby runner-up/runner-up double in 1988-89.

Interestingly though, three Juvenile place horses have come back to win the Preakness. Point Given, 2nd in the 2000 Juvenile behind Macho Uno, won the 2001 Preakness and Belmont; and Afleet Alex, second behind Wilko in the 2004 Juvenile, won the Preakness in 2005. Tank's Prospect, second in the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile in 1984, got it all started when he came back to win the Preakness the following year.

Also interesting is the fact that Juvenile third-place finishers have had more success in the Derby than any of their top two finishing counterparts. Good news for Noble's Promise, but don't go racing to the future book location near you just yet.

Success for Juvy third-place finishers started with the first Breeders' Cup winner when Spend a Buck finished third in 1984 behind Chief's Crown and Tank's Prospect, then came back to win the 1985 Derby. Alysheba did the same thing two years later finishing third behind Capote and Qualify in the Juvenile, before taking the 1987 Derby.

Since then, things have been a little dry for the Juvenile bronze medalists so-to-speak. Tejano Run finished third in the 1994 Juvenile behind Timber Country and Eltish before finishing second in the Derby behind Grindstone; and Cat Thief finished third in both the 1998 Juvenile and 1999 Kentucky Derby.

Now I don't know if I've given you the winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby or if any of this will be of much five months from now. But we've helped create an awareness for those suffering from PBCS... and I hope our time together has helped.