The Brock Talk

Wednesday, June 3, 2009

Belmonts Stakes Trifecta

For those of you who have less tolerance for risk but would still like to take a chance at an inexpensive trifecta, we have built what I would call a "trifecta of favorites." With Mine That Bird as the solid 8-5 favorite in the Daily Racing Form, we will key him on top of this trifecta wheel with a total cost of $4.

It is actually four $1 trifectas. Don't expect a big pay-off if this trifecta hits, but a small win is sometimes better than no win at all.

7 - Mine That Bird must finish first
2,6 - Dunkirk or Charitable man must finish second
1,2,6 - Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk or Charitable Man must finish third.

To Place This Bet:
Amount of Wager: $1
Type of Wager: Trifecta Wheel
"Belmont Stakes, $1 Trifecta. May I have the 7 WITH the 2,6 WITH the 1,2,6."
Total Cost = $4

Beat The Favorite Ticket
If you've read any of my previous similar postings, you know that I like to try to beat the favorite. Many things can happen to create an upset of Mine That Bird but the reality is that if that if he fires like he did in the Derby and Preakness, he will be very, very difficult to beat.

But if he must be within striking distance of a slow pace, I think that means jockey Calvin Borel may have to try to place him slightly closer to the early leaders which should be Chocolate Candy, Miner's Escape and perhaps Charitable Man. By closer, I mean maybe ten lengths back instead of 15 lengths behind the leaders when they come out of the first turn.

Based on a very simple Progressive Handicapping statistic, we know that Calvin Borel doesn't have a lot of experience at the giant 1-1/2 Belmont Park oval having ridden only three races there in the last three years with a second and a third. That combined with a tricky slow pace could be trouble for Mine That Bird.

Combine that with the wear and tear of the Triple Crown and we think he's beatable. So here's our ticket:

2,6 - Dunkirk or Charitable Man must win
2,6,8 - Dunkirk, Charitable Man or Flying Private must finish second.
2,6,7,8 - Dunkirk, Charitable Man, Mine That Bird or Flying Private must finish third.

To Place This Bet:
Amount of Wager: $1
Type of Wager: Trifecta Wheel
"Belmont Stakes, $1 Trifecta. May I have the 2,6 WITH the 2,6,8 WITH the 2,6,7,8."
Total Cost = $8

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