Mucho Reasons To Like The Macho Man

For all intents and purposes, six horses qualified for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) by earning enough graded stakes money in the three stakes considered serious prep races this past weekend.

Animal Kingdom, Pants on Fire and Twice the Appeal won the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3), Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) and Sunland Derby (gr. 3) respectively. Decisive Moment added $95,000 to his previous bankroll of $206,000 with his runner-up finish in the Spiral Stakes and now looks to have enough to enter the Kentucky Derby. In fact, Decisive Moment was the first Kentucky Derby contnender to arrive at Churchill Downs today. (photo) Mucho Macho Man likely had enough graded earnings before the Louisiana Derby but the $100,000 third-place check out of the Louisiana Derby pretty much solidifies his Kentucky qualifications. Similarly, Sunland Derby second-place finisher Astrology added enough to his existing earnings to likely get a spot in the starting gate in the Run for the Roses.

Although the Louisiana Derby has produced some Kentucky Derby starters that have gone to the gate at Churchill Downs among the favorites, the past winners of the Sunland Derby and Spiral Stakes are often among the less popular on the first Saturday in May, (If they make it to the Kentucky Derby at all.)

That is not to say that we did not see the future Kentucky Derby winner run this weekend. All three of these prep races have produced winners of the first leg of the Triple Crown. Horses that have won both the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby include Grindstone (1996) and Black Gold (1924) while Lil E. Tee won in Kentucky in 1992 after winning the Spiral Stakes that year. Two years ago, Mine That Bird won the Derby at odds of 50-1, coming to Kentucky from the 2009 Sunland Derby where he finished third.

Interestingly, among the starters this weekend, the horse with the best chance of attracting wagers at the Kentucky Derby, finished third this weekend. Mucho Macho Man looked as though we was set to challenge leader Pants on Fire at the top of the stretch in the Louisiana Derby, the eventual winner pulled away and held off late charging and eventual runner-up Nehro. At first glance, it appeared as if Mucho Macho Man had run the second disappointing race in his last three starts.

Following the race, however, it was discovered that Mucho Macho Man had lost a shoe at some point very near the start of the race. That completely changes how the Louisiana Derby performance of Mucho Macho Man is evaluated. Instead of looking at Mucho Macho Man with doubt as to if he belongs in the Kentucky Derby, he instead retains his place among those likely to have a chance to win.

The thrown shoe by Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana will also be something lost among a great many of those betting the Kentucky Derby. So should Mucho Macho Man make it to Kentucky, there is a good chance he will be a bit of a wagering overlay. That is to say his odds will be artificially higher than they perhaps they should be.

Mucho Macho Man may not be the fastest or most talented of this group of 3-year-olds in 2011, but he oozes with determination. The son of Macho Uno started the year as the favorite in the grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park but finished fourth behind eventual winner Dialed In. After the race, jockey Eibar Coa said he had a difficult time getting Mucho Macho Man to relax during the early part of the Holy Bull and therefore spent too much energy too early in the race.

But Mucho Macho Man came back strong to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 3) at Fairgrounds in his next start showing that he had the determination to win and the character to rebound from a loss. Trainer Kathy Ritvo also took the blinkers off of Mucho Macho Man, which may have allowed him to settle a little easier for jockey Rajiv Maragh. Despite any lack of talent or pedigree, determination and character can be extremely valuable in a race with 19 other horses at a distance of 1-1/4 miles. Having the ability to rate and settle behind the always fast fractions in the Kentucky Derby will also be an asset.

Of course the Mucho Macho Man story can tug at one’s heart in other ways as well. Three years ago Ritvo was hospitalized and in very serious condition as she lay waiting for a heart transplant that had no guarantee of arrival. The donated heart eventually arrived and Ritvo has not only recovered, but now has a Kentucky Derby contender in her stable.

What the stable is missing however is jockey Eibar Coa, the regular rider aboard Mucho Macho Man before breaking a vertebrae in a spill at Gulfstream Park in February. Although Maragh has taken over riding Mucho Macho Man, the ownership team of Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Dream Team One Thoroughbred Racing have insisted the recovering Coa is still very much a part of the team. In fact majority owner Dan Reeves visited Coa in the hospital following the Risen Star victory and presented him a check for $18,000, equal to the compensation paid Maragh for the win.

So there are plenty of reason to pull for Mucho Macho Man to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. Not the least of which is your knowledge of the lost shoe in New Orleans.

Spiral Stakes History Dotted With Popular Stars

Although the $500,000 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes took a hit from the North American Graded Stakes Committee this year by being dropped a class down to grade 3, the marquee event for Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky has featured some significant stars preparing for the first Saturday in May.

Although the race had attracted several good horses since the first running in 1972, it wasn’t until D. Wayne Lukas brought Marfa to Turfway Park to win the 1983 Jim Beam Spiral Stakes when the race began to garner national attention. Marfa went on to finish fifth in the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) that year behind winner Sunny’s Halo and fourth in the Preakness behind Deputed Testamony. A year later the race was given grade 3 status and was quickly becoming the new race on the block for those preparing for the Kentucky Derby.

Three years later Broad Brush was shipped to Turfway from his home base in Maryland to win the Jim Beam Spiral Stakes before finishing third in both the 1986 Kentucky Derby and Preakness.

The Spiral Stakes then hit it’s golden years in the 1990s starting with 1990 winner Summer Squall and 1991 winner Hansel, both of which would go on to win the Preakness. Hansel also set the track record for a 1-1/8 miles, stopping the clock in 1:46.60. A year later the Spiral Stakes was won by Lil E. Tee and few weeks later the race had produced its first Kentucky Derby winner as Lil E. Tee won also won the 1992 Run for the Roses. The roll through the decade continued as 1993 winner Prairie Bayou would become the third future Preakness winner in four years to have gone through the Turfway Park winner’s circle.

In 1995, Serena’s Song (photo above) became the first filly to win the Jim Beam Spiral Stakes, and while she had little impact on the Triple Crown, the D. Wayne Lukas-trainee would defeat colts in the Haskell Invitational (gr. 1). The future Hall of Fame filly also won the grade 1 Beldame Stakes over older mares in New York that year and was eventually named the Champion 3-Year-Old Filly of 1995.

Jockey Pat Day has the record for the most Spiral Stakes victories with five, but trainer William E. Adams has the most impressive streak in the races history. From 1977-80, Adams trained seven consecutive winners of the Spiral Stakes as the race was split into two divisions in three of those four years.

The Spiral Stakes may have lost a bit of its luster over the last few years, but it has still produced some popular Derby contenders in Hard Spun and Perfect Drift.

Hard Spun won the 2007 Spiral (Then named the Lane’s End Stakes), before finishing in the money in all three Triple Crown races. He finished second in the Kentucky Derby behind Street Sense then finished third in the Preakness and fourth in the Belmont.

Perfect Drift was third in the Kentucky Derby behind winner War Emblem, but his 3-year-old year was just the start of a long career. He would go on to run at age seven and appeared in five consecutive Breeders’ Cup Classics (gr. ) from 2002-2006, finishing third in 2005 and fourth in 2004. Perhaps his best year was 2003 when Perfect Drift won the Stephen Foster Handicap (gr. 1), the Hawthorne Gold Cup (gr. 2), the Kentucky Jockey Club Handicap (gr. 2), and the Washington Park Handicap (gr. 3). Two years later, he would win his second Washington Park Handicap in track record time and finish second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

While this year’s Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes does not an Uncle Mo, Dialed In or any of the other leading 3-year-olds this year, the field is again solid. And if history tells us anything, there’s probably a star somewhere in the field.

The Race Within Derby Preps This Weekend

This weekend, 30 or so 3-year-olds will be running in three races, all with hopes of getting to the May 7 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. And the pressure is beginning to come from all directions. In order to take the next step to Kentucky, they must perform well on the track in order to establish respect among the sophomore group on the Derby trail. But no matter how good they look in winning or how good the excuse is in losing, nearly every horse needs to add to their graded earnings bankroll in order to make it into the available 20 starting gate slots in the Kentucky Derby.

The three major Derby prep races this weekend are the $1 million Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) at Fairgrounds in New Orleans and the $500,000 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky on Saturday and the $800,000 Sunland Derby (gr. 3) from Sunland Park, New Mexico on Sunday. The $100,000 Rushaway Stakes, also at Turfway on Saturday, could technically be a Derby prep, but with no grade on the one mile stake, the horses must follow the graded money and run elsewhere if Derby hopes exist.

Currently the cut-off for qualifying for the Kentucky Derby sits with Sweet Ducky with $120,000 in graded earnings. Last year, it took $218,750 in graded earnings for Make Mine For Me to qualify for the Derby. Assuming it will take at least $215,000 to again qualify for the Run for the Roses, the horses that are currently on the Derby bubble, are found further up the current rankings. San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) winner Premier Pegasus sits just above that level ranked 12th with $228,000 on the current list.

The only two horses scheduled to start this weekend with graded earnings above that $215k mark are both Louisiana Derby contenders. Mucho Macho Man (photo above) is the seventh leading earner of graded earnings among 3-year-olds with $270,000. Among the horses running this weekend, Spiral Stakes probable Decisive Moment has $206,000, ranking him 13th on the current list.

The only other 3-year-old set to start this weekend with six figure graded earnings is Sunland Derby favorite Astrology with $105,893. Louisiana Derby entrant Wilkinson has $66,000 in graded earning while seven others have $25,000 or less in graded earnings.

Of the big three Derby preps this weekend, the Louisiana Derby with its $1 million purse appears primed to have the most influence on Derby qualifications. The $600,000 first prize in the Louisiana Derby assures the winner enough graded earnings to make it to Churchill. But only Mucho Macho Man and Wilkinson have a chance of earning enough to qualify without hitting the winner’s circle in New Orleans and starting again in graded company before May 7.

The $100,000 Louisiana Derby third-place check would push Mucho Macho Man to $370,000, very likely to be enough to qualify. A $200,000 second-place check would push Wilkinson to $266,000 in graded earnings and Elite Alex to $225,000 which looks to be bubble territory for now.

In the Spiral Stakes, only Decisive Moment has enough graded earnings to qualify for the Derby Saturday without winning. A Spiral Stakes runner-up earns $100,000, which would push Decisive Moment above the $300,000 which should at least be at the very top of the Derby bubble. Every other Spiral starter needs to earn the $300,000 first-place check to give them a chance of qualifying with the pressure of another race before the Derby.

The story is much the same with the Sunland Derby, but the $800,000 purse helps. Astrology is the favorite in New Mexico with just more than $105,000 in graded earnings. A Sunland second-place check of $160,000 might qualify him for the Derby, but the $480,000 first prize would be much more comforting in terms of getting into the Run for the Roses – for Astrology or any other Sunland Derby starter.

Again, everybody can come back and try again in the final grade 1 races before the Derby, but the competition will be considerably stiffer, making it more difficult to earn those last second dollars. Practically speaking, most connections are looking for wins this weekend with most of their 3-year-olds in order to deflate the added pressure of having to run in those later Derby preps to qualify for the Derby.

Twelve probable competitors this weekend have graded earnings. Mucho Macho Man may have enough to be Derby bound already with his $270k bankroll, but even that is an estimate. It may take as much as $300,000 to punch a ticket to Churchill. That puts a lot of pressure on and uncertainty around the thirty or so others set for graded competition this weekend on the Derby trail.