Kentucky Derby Bubble At $120,000

This week Churchill Downs released the current rankings of 3-year-olds by graded earnings, which determines which horses may enter the $2 million Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) to be run May 5.

No surprise that last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male Hansen sits atop the list with $1,160,000, of which $1,080,000 was earned when he captured the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs last November. In his first start of 2012 Hansen was second to Algorithms in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulfstream Park Jan. 29.

Second to Hansen in both the Juvenile and on the graded earnings list is Union Rags with $830,000 of which $360,000 was earned in the Juvenile and all earned last year as a 2-year-old. Sabercat is third on the list with the $600,000 he earned in the grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot run at Delta Downs in Louisiana, also run last November.

However, the most important slots on the graded earnings list are much further down where Battle Hardened, Brother Francis and the filly Disposablepleasure sit tied for 18th with $120,000 each in graded earnings. For it is those three horses and their respective earnings that currently define the amount needed to make the top 20. Twenty is the maximum number of starters allowed in the Run for the Roses.

The owners, trainers, jockeys and fans of all the 3-year-olds currently below the $120,000 mark should not fret too much however, as that number will change many times in the next 77 days before the Derby. Some of the horses currently in the top 20 will be forced out of contention due to injury while others may just not have the Kentucky Derby in their plans. Both instances would lower the $120,000 mark.

Two fillies, On Fire Baby and Disposablepleasure, are on the list and they have the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) as an option. There are also two foriegn-based horses on the list in Wrote and Genten. Wrote, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) at Churchill Downs, is based in Ireland with trainer Aidan O'Brien. O'Brien crossed the Atlantic many times last year with Cape Blanco and won the Eclipse Award for Champion Turf Horse in North America. O'Brien has started two horses in the Kentucky Derby. Johannesburg and Castle Gondolfo finished eighth and 12th respectively in the 2002 Derby. O'Brien has won six Breeders' Cup races over the years from more than 70 starters.

Trainer Yoshito Yahagi has Genten at his base in Japan and has never started a horse in either the Derby nor the Breeders' Cup.

There are some 31 graded races for 3-year-olds remaining before the Derby. That equates to some 150 opportunities to earn graded money, which of course, could drive up the $120,000 number.

Twenty horses have entered the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 and in 11 of the past 13 years. Interestingly, last year Derby Kitten was the last to qualify for the Derby with $120,000 but it took a record $218,750 for Make Music For Me to get into the Run for Roses two years ago. Over the last five years, the final horse to make the Derby field has averaged $132,750 in graded earnings.

Graded stakes are considered graded or group status as assigned to the race by the International Cataloguing Standards Committee in Part I of the International Cataloguing Standards as published by The Jockey Club Information Systems, Inc. each year.

In the case of a tie for the final entry position or the determination of all remaining starters, preference is given to horses that accumulated the highest earnings in non-restricted stakes races. If a tie still remains, the final spots in the starting gate will be determined by lot or a “shake.”

For the first time since 1984, there will be an “also eligible” list with as many as four horses eligible to draw into the field until scratch time on Friday, May 4 at 9 a.m. ET.

Top 32 Graded Stakes Earners
Rank, Horse, Graded Earnings, Trainer
Thru Sunday, Feb. 12, 2012
1. Hansen, $1,160,000, Mike Maker
2. Union Rags, $830,000, Michael Matz
3. Sabercat $600,000, Steve Asmussen
4. Wrote-IRE $556,630, Aidan O’Brien
5. Creative Cause $488,000, Mike Harrington
6. Liaison $375,000, Bob Baffert
7. Dullahan $375,000, Dale Romans
8. Excaper $240,736, Ian Black
9. Algorithms $240,000, Todd Pletcher
10. On Fire Baby (f) $211,729, Gary Hartlage
11. Drill $210,000, Bob Baffert
12. Alpha $180,000, Kiaran McLaughlin
13. Rousing Sermon $164,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
14. Prospective $155,452, Mark Casse
15. I’ll Have Another $151,000, Doug O’Neill
16. Currency Swap $150,000, Teresa Pompay
17. Genten $123,826, Yoshito Yahagi
t-18. Battle Hardened $120,000, Eddie Kenneally
t-18. Brother Francis $120,000, Jim Cassidy
t-18. Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000, Todd Pletcher
21. Mr. Bowling $115,848, Larry Jones
22. Jack’s in the Deck $105,000, Robin Graham
23. Gemologist $103,855, Todd Pletcher
24. Longview Drive $102,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
25. Fly Lexis Fly $99,481, Neil Drysdale
26. Take Charge Indy $98,400, Pat Byrne
27. Daddy Long Legs $94,030, Aidan O’Brien
28. Red Duke $90,823 Maxilead Ltd. John Quinn
t-29. Overdriven $90,000, Todd Pletcher
t-29. Reneesgotzip (f) $90,000, Peter Miller
t-29. State of Play $90,000, Graham Motion
t-29. Thunder Moccasin $90,000, Todd Pletcher

Three Saturday Stakes Have Kentucky Derby Implications

Tampa Bay Downs, Santa Anita Park and Aqueduct Racetrack may be where the next winner of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) may be found Saturday as the three tracks each feature prep races for the American classic. Although the May 5 Derby is still more than three months away, several 3-year-old thoroughbreds will be running in three races and their connections are likely thinking roses.

All three stakes are graded, which means the top finishers in each race will be credited with their corresponding earnings in the quest to qualify for the Derby.

The Kentucky Derby is limited to 20 starters and gives preference to those entrants with the most earnings in graded races. Last year Derby Kitten was the last to qualify for the Kentucky Derby with $120,000 in graded earnings while the year before, eventual fourth-place finisher Make Music For Me needed a record $218,750 to earn a place in the Derby starting gate. In 2009, it took a record low $55,500 for Nowhere to Hide to complete the Kentucky Derby field.

Aqueduct will host the $200,000 Withers Stakes (gr. III), Santa Anita features the $200,000 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. II) and Tampa Bay Downs presents the $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes. All three races will be run over 1-1/16 miles.

It has been nearly 70 years since Count Fleet won both the Withers and Kentucky Derby, but the Withers used to be run in late April. The late Count Fleet was usually just one week before the Kentucky Derby and much too close to the Derby for most Withers winners. The race was not run last year, but the Withers has returned and is now part of Aqueduct’s lead-up to the Triple Crown. After the Withers, Aqueduct will offer the $400,000 Gotham in March and the $1 million Wood Memorial in April.

Named for the late California owner who won the Kentucky Derby with Silver Charm in 1997 and Charismatic in 1999, the Robert B. Lewis will be run for the 74th time at Santa Anita. Formerly the Santa Catalina Stakes, the last winner of this race to go on to take the Run for the Roses was Ferdinand in 1986. Although 2009 Robert Lewis winner Pioneerof the Nile was second to long shot Mine That Bird in the Kentucky Derby that year.

After the Lewis, the natural progression to the Triple Crown races for California-based horses is the Mar. 10 San Felipe Stakes (gr. II) and the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) April 7. There is also the seven furlong San Vicente Stakes (gr. II) at Santa Anita Feb. 19 for Derby and/or Triple Crown hopefuls.

First run in 1991, the much younger Sam F. Davis Stakes has never had its winner also take the Kentucky Derby. General Quarters is the most recent Davis winner to start in the Kentucky Derby, finishing 10th in 2009. The Sam F. Davis is the main local prep race for the Mar. 10 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. II) which produced 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver.

Two contenders this weekend are on most “Derby Watch” lists including Alpha, the even money morning line favorite in the Withers; and Liason, the 9-to-5 morning line top choice in the Robert Lewis.

In his most recent start, Alpha won the $150,000 Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct Jan. 7 but trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is cautious when talking about the Kentucky Derby. “The Withers is an important race because it’s graded and you don’t get to run in the Derby unless you have those graded stakes earnings,” McLaughlin said. “When you look at the schedule, you start with the first Saturday in May (the traditional day of the Kentucky Derby), and work back from there. We are taking the Withers as an important step, and maybe, maybe, afterward we’ll talk about what we’re going to do.” Currently Alpha has $60,000 in graded earnings from finishing second to Union Rags in last year’s Champagne Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park.

Three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert (photo left) will saddle the Liason and Sky Kingdom in an attempt to win his record fourth Robert B. Lewis Stakes which would tie him with Ron McAnally (1976, 1980, 1982, 1997) and Charlie Whittingham (1964, 1970, 1986, 1988) for the most victories in this race. Liason has won three consecutive races since finishing third in his first start last fall at Del Mar near San Diego. Since then, the son of Indian Charlie has won a maiden race at Santa Anita, the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes and CashCall Futurity (gr. I) at Hollywood Park. Should he make it to the Kentucky Derby, Liason should be eligible with is $450,000 in graded earnings from winning the CashCall Futurity.

Sky Kingdom was fourth in the CashCall but was an impressive allowance winner at Santa Anita on Jan. 12, winning a mile and one-sixteenth test by 4 ½ lengths, “easily.”

“I just want them to have a good race,” Baffert said. “They’ve had a few starts now where they’ve got enough foundation and they’ve done well. You just want them to stay healthy.”

Gulfstream Park Derby winner Reveron is the 3-to-1 morning line favorite in the Sam Davis and is making his first start in a graded race. Trained by Agustin Bezra, Reveron too has won three straight including victories over maidens and against allowance company at Calder Race Course near Miami in November before winning the Gulfstream Park Derby on New Year’s Day.

Horse of the Year Defense Starts Early for Havre de Grace

It will be very easy to cheer for 2011 Horse of the Year Havre de Grace (photo right) this year. After all, owner Rick Porter and trainer Larry Jones are the popular sort with fans who are beginning to especially appreciate those keeping their equine stars around the track a bit longer. For that reason alone, there will be just a few more cheering on those red and white silks of Fox Hill Farms worn by jockey Gabriel Saez aboard Havre de Grace in 2012.

Havre de Grace may also pick up some fans from her rival, the recently retired Blind Luck. Why would a fan begrudge Blind Luck for retiring earlier than Havre de Grace? No matter the reason for her retirement, Blind Luck was an equine version of Winston Wolfe. She was the sort who would take the call, write down the address and then travel anywhere, anytime and take care of business.

One may also assume any further accolades accomplished by Havre de Grace on the track, really just add to the racing legacy of Blind Luck. Point being, Havre de Grace should have plenty of fans this year. But from the looks of things early this year, while training well at Oaklawn Park, Havre de will not have a monopoly on popularity among racing fans.

The Florida Sunshine Millions gave affirmation to fans of Mucho Macho Man as he won the $400,000 Sunshine Millions Classic and Awesome Feather, winner of the $300,000 Sunshine Millions Distaff.

Mucho Macho Man continues his wave of acclaim that started during his 3-year-old old season. The Kathy Ritvo-trainee joined only Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness (gr. 1) winner Shackleford as the only three horses to start in every Triple Crown race last year. The Florida-bred son of Macho Uno was third in the Derby but disappointed with off-the-board finishes in the Preakness and Belmont.

Mucho Macho Man was given a break after the Belmont but returned with vigor easily winning an allowance race at Aqueduct in November before making his 2012 debut in the Sunshine Millions Classic.

Awesome Feather also returned to the races in New York last Fall after tendon injuries sidelined her for most of her sophomore year. After an undefeated and championship season as a 2-year-old, Awesome Feather came back from her lay-off last year and won the Le Slew Stakes at Belmont in October and the Gazelle Stakes (gr. 1) at Aqueduct in November. Although many of her wins have come against fellow Florida-breds, Awesome Feather has had little trouble when stepping up to open, grade I races. And as long as she keeps that race record unblemished, her fame will continue to grow along with the streak.

Few horses in North America carry the esteem of a Kentucky Derby winner, and it seems all systems are go for Animal Kingdom’s return in 2012. After his sixth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) won by Ruler on Ice last year, a hairline fracture in the left hock of Animal Kingdom was discovered and ended his year. But the now 4-year-old son of Leroidesanimaux has been doing well for trainer Graham Motion who saw Animal Kingdom put in a bullet work Jan. 25 at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, going five furlongs on grass in :59 4/5.

According to reports, owner Team Valor International manager Barry Irwin says Animal Kingdom is scheduled to race again in the grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes Feb. 25. Irwin said the 1-1/16 mile race on the Tampa Bay Downs turf will act as preparation for the $10 million, group 1 Dubai World Cup Mar. 31 at Meydan Race Course in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Shackleford (photo left) is also working toward his return to the races at Palm Meadows for trainer Dale Romans who says the Donn Handicap (gr. I) at Gulfstream Park Feb. 11. Last seen finishing second to Caleb’s Posse in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs, Shackleford also had runner-up finishes last year in the Florida Derby (gr. I), Haskell Invitational (gr. I) and Indiana Derby (gr. 2). His “catch me if you can” running style also keeps Shackleford popular among his fans.

Don’t under estimate Game On Dude and his fans either. The runner-up to Drosselmeyer in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) and winner of the two Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) and Goodwood Stakes (gr. I) also has jockey Chantal Sutherland and trainer Bob Baffert on her team. Both world-class in their trades, they are equally charismatic and media savey.

And then of course there is the possibility of an ultra popular 3-year-old. It has been since Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown in 2008 when we last saw a horse go to the Belmont Stakes for a chance at the Triple Crown and since Affirmed in 1978 when had our last Triple Crown winner. Big Brown was pulled up and finished last in the Belmont Stakes, but as chronicled many times on this blog, not since Big Brown won the 2008 Monmouth Stakes have seen a Kentucky Derby champ even win a subsequent race.

Horse racing is not only due for a popular and post Kentucky Derby successful 3-year-old, but 33 years is long enough to wait for a Triple Crown winner too.

Yes Havre de Grace, unless she repeats as Horse of the Year in 2012, will probably go down in Thoroughbred history as the difficult part of the answer to a trivia question. No doubt her 2011 can not compare to Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta before her.

Looking at some of the horses that are expected to compete in for the 2012 golden Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year, things are not going to be any easier for Havre de Grace this year. After all, we now know that Jones and Porter are not afraid to take their champion mare and run against older horses at the highest of levels.

Any way one looks at it however, the race for 2012 Horse of the Year is already interesting. And we have barely started.

Despite Training Trends, Holy Bull Remains Important Step On Kentucky Derby Trail

A couple of things about the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) from an historical point of view may help put this weekend’s early Derby prep into perspective. The $400,000 Holy Bull will be run Sunday at Gulfstream Park with a field of six going the one-turn mile. The lead story line for this year’s Holy Bull Stakes is the 2012 debut of Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) winner and champion 2-year-old male Hansen (photo right).

Even if Hansen is successful in his debut, there have been few Holy Bull winners who also went on to don the blanket of roses in the winners’ circle of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1). The only Holy Bull winners to also win the Kentucky Derby later were Barbaro in 2006 (photo below left) and Go For Gin in 1994 but others have faired well enough at Churchill Downs.

First run in 1990 as The Preview Stakes, the Holy Bull was created to replace the Flamingo Stakes that had been run at then closed Hialeah race track. The Holy Bull has been run at three different distances in its more than 20-year history, going as far as 1-1/8 miles, to 1-1/16 miles, to its current distance of one mile in various orders and years.

The shortened distance makes the Holy Bull perhaps a more attractive prep race for horses that are considering the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown and need or want at least three starts to prepare for and attempt to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The Holy Bull is part of a series of graded races at Gulfstream Park for 3-year-olds that also includes the Feb. 26 Fountain of Youth (gr. II) at 1-1/16 miles and the 1-1/8 mile Florida Derby (gr. 1) on Mar. 31. This year the Kentucky Derby will be run May 5.

The 2011 Holy Bull Stakes produced two eventual Kentucky Derby starters in Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Dialed In gave trainer Nick Zito his record third victory in the Holy Bull Stakes last year (along with Go For Gin and Suave Prospect in 1995). Dialed In later won the Florida Derby last year before finishing a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby.

Third in last year’s Holy Bull, Mucho Macho Man would go on to also run third in the Kentucky Derby and join Animal Kingdom and Shackleford as the only horses to start in all three Triple Crown races last year. Mucho Macho Man was sixth in the Preakness (gr. I) and seventh in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).

West Side Bernie, third in the 2009 Holy Bull Stakes; and Homeboy Kris, third a year later in the Holy Bull, would both make the Kentucky Derby but neither fared well in their Run for the Roses. West Side Bernie was ninth behind Mine That Bird and Homeboy Kris was 16th in the Derby won by Super Saver.

Until last year when two Holy Bull starters made it the Kentucky Derby, the Holy Bull has not had a strong connection to the Derby. Recent Derby winning horsemen have leaned toward starting their promising sophomores only twice before the Kentucky Derby and closer to the race than the late January Holy Bull. Of the last five Kentucky Derby winners since Barbaro, all started in only two Kentucky Derby prep races with only Mine That Bird starting as early as February. The 2009 Derby winner began his 3-year-old year running second in the $100,000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park on Feb. 28.

Animal Kingdom last year, Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008) and Street Sense (2007) all made their first starts of their respective years in March preceding their Kentucky Derby wins.

Despite being the expected heavy favorite, a victory in Sunday’s Holy Bull is certainly not a necessity for Hansen. His winner’s check of $600,000 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile insures him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate if he can stay sound and competitive. The Derby is limited to 20 starters with earnings in graded races used to determine the eligible entrants. But the competition only gets tougher as the Derby draws near and it is doubtful that trainer Mike Maker and owners Dr. Hansen Kendall and Sky Chai Racing want to go to Louisville based only on last year’s accomplishments.

A victory in the Holy Bull would be much more impactful for any of the other five starters, of which none have any graded earnings. The $240,000 first-place check in the Holy Bull would place any of the other five in the top ten on the current list of 3-year-olds with graded earnings and likely enough to eventually qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Currently $105,000 in graded earnings makes the top 20, but that is likely to be a very fluid number during the next three months before those Derby slots are awarded.

Second and third-place checks of $80,000 and $40,000 in the Holy Bull respectively will leave plenty of work for those starting this race with a zero balance in their graded stakes bankrolls – but every little bit may help. West Side Bernie, Homeboy Kris and Mucho Macho Man have proven that a third in the late January Holy Bull does not qualify nor disqualify one from making it to Kentucky for the first Saturday in May.

If nothing else, a good performance in the Holy Bull Sunday remains important in creative rose colored hopeds for these six 3-year-olds, their connections and their quest to make it the prestigious Kentucky Derby.

Lecomte Has Kentucky Derby Opportunites For Horses and Fans

The trail to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) passes through New Orleans Saturday as 13 aspiring young thoroughbred line up in the $175,000 Lecomte Stakes (gr. III) at Fair Grounds. The 1-mile and 70 yards Lecomte is the first serious prep race for the $1 million Louisiana Derby (gr. II) April 1, itself a major prep for the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

While some may discount races this early in the year as not having much of an impact on the Derby compared to races in March and April (tell us some more fascinating and useful information there Captain Obvious), it should be noted that the 2009 Lecomte was won by future Kentucky Derby favorite Freisan Fire and Kentucky Derby runner-up Hard Spun in 2007. Between those two, Z Fortune won the Lecomte on his way to starting in the Derby.

Last year 13 of the 20 starters in the Run for the Roses had a January race in their past performances. It should also be noted that 2011 Champion and Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Hansen makes a start next weekend at Gulfstream Park and as recent as Barbaro in 2006, the winner of America’s most prestigious horse race ran in the preceding January.

According to Daily Racing Form, Wynn Casino and Sports Book Las Vegas has given future win odds to some 320 potential Kentucky Derby starters with only 42 (13%) of those having odds of 85-1 or less. Two Lecomte starters make that group of 42. Exfactor at 5-1 in the Lecomte morning line and Hammers Terror (6-1) are both 75-1 to win the Kentucky Derby according to Watchmaker.

Interestingly, Lecomte favorite Shared Property is 4-1 to win Saturday, but has much higher Kentucky odds at 175-1 than Exfactor and Hammers Terror. If one likes to place future book wagers, there might be added value there.

Shared Property is trained by Tom Amoss (photo left) who has won two of the twelve runnings of the Lecomte. Amoss won the first Lecomte in 1999 with Some Actor and won again with Ron the Greek in 2010. Shared Property makes his third career start in the Lecomte after breaking his maiden at Ellis Park in July, winning the Arlington Washington Futurity (gr. III) in September before finishing sixth in the grade 1 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity in his last race Oct. 8. The son of the young stallion Scat Daddy breaks from the far outside in the field of 13 but jockey Leanardo Goncalves should have less trouble getting further inside because Shared Property has preferred to win from the back of the pack in previous races.

Exfactor has won four of five career starts including the grade 3 Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) at Churchill Downs and more recently the $158,000 Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fairgrounds in December. Trained by Bernie Flint, Exfactor breaks from the more favorable four post with jockey Shaun Bridgmohan. Exfactor will be making his first trip around two turns in the Lecomte, so distance may still be a question for the son of Exchange Rate, himself a winner of the Risen Star Stakes (gr. III) at Fairgrounds in 2000.

Hammers Terror has already won at the mile and 70 yard distance at Fairgrounds, but that was against allowance/optional claiming company. The Michael Stidham trainee makes his stakes debut in the Lecomte after also breaking his maiden at Keeneland in his second try last year.

Seven Lively Sins is the second choice in the Lecomte morning line at 9-2 and makes his third try in stakes company after finishing second in the grade 3 Iroquois at Churchill in October and fourth Delta Downs Jackpot (gr. III) in November. Seven Lively Sins is 175-1 in the Daily Racing Form line to win the Kentucky Derby.

Of the others in the Lecomte, only Alexander Thegreat (30-1 in the Lecomte morning line) and Adena’s Chance are not listed in Watchmaker’s Daily Racing Form Derby possibilities.

The Lecomte is a solid race on its own merit, but it could easily produce a Kentucky Derby contender to follow for the next three and a-half months. It has some apparent opportunities for those who like to bet Kentucky Derby future books too.

Hansen Gets Rodney Treatment For An Eclipse Champion

Despite his victory in the prestigious Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Monday night being honored with an Eclipse Award as Champion Two-Year-Old Male, one would think Hansen (photo right) returns to training this year among a wave of popularity. After all, his eventual task now is to carry that success to Churchill Downs in May and win America’s most prestigious race, the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). Nothing in January insures victory in May of course, but with all of the accolades, one would think the reigning champ would at least be the favorite for the Derby.

Not so fast say the future book odds-makers.

Despite his last two significant accomplishments, the son of the successful young sire Tapit is not among the top three choices to the Kentucky Derby according to the Derby future book on gohorsebetting.com. The on-line betting service has Breeders’ Cup runner-up Union Rags as the favorite at 10-1 with Algorithms and Liason both second choice at 12-1. Hansen is co-fourth choice at 15-1 with Alpha. That’s right: Hansen can’t even eek out solo position for fourth choice in the wagering circles.

After a brief break, Hansen has returned to trainer Mike Maker’s barn at Gulfstream Park in Florida where he is expected to make his 2012 debut in a stake race there according to reports.

However, owner Dr. Kendall Hansen has indicated that the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) in late March at Turfway Park in northern Kentucky is the eventual planned Kentucky Derby prep race. Hansen broke his maiden and won the $95,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway in 2011 before winning the prestigious Juvenile. Last year, Animal Kingdom used his victory in the Spiral Stakes as his final race before also winning the Kentucky Derby.

Union Rags was also the heavy post time favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with near even odds and an undefeated record at the time from three starts. Trained by Michael Matz who won the 2006 Kentucky Derby with the ill-fated Barbaro, Union Rags won the Saratoga Special and one mile Champagne Stakes as a 2-year-old but will need to prove he can handle the longer races leading up to and including the Triple Crown. A son of Dixie Union and out of the Gone West mare Tempo, Union Rags is currently the 10-1 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

Algorithms is from the large group of potential Derby horses trained by 2011 Eclipse Award nominee Todd Pletcher and is also one of many sons of the popular and productive young sire Bernardini. Although he has no stakes wins to his credit, Algorithms is undefeated in two races including a maiden win in June and then an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park in December, defeating fellow Bernardini son and Derby hopeful Consortium trained by Kairan McLaughlin.


Liason is another in a line of Indian Charlie sons trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. After losing his first start in a one mile allowance race at Del Mar in early September, Liason has won three straight including the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes and grade 1 CashCall Futurity, both 1-1/16 mile races at Hollywood Park in the late Fall.


Along with Hansen at 15-1 in the gohorsebetting future line is Alpha, also by Bernardini. Another trained by McLaughlin, Alpha is one of the first winners on this year’s trail to the Kentucky Derby, taking Aqueduct’s Count Fleet Stakes Jan. 7.

As a 2-year-old, Alpha garnered some attention finishing second to Union Rags in the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. While not among the favorites in the Juvenile, Alpha compromised his chances before the start of the Juvenile by being fractious in the gate. Alpha still broke well and raced into early competition down the backstretch in the Juvenile, but when the serious running started, Alpha didn’t and eventually finished 11th.


It is still 108 days before the Kentucky Derby which is an eternity for trainers trying to get their horses to the Run for the Roses. And the odds-makers nor their probabilities have any influence as to who will be wearing the blanket of roses at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Like a college football coach ranked number one in preseason polls, Maker and Dr. Hansen will probably tell you they prefer not to wear that extra target on their back as Hansen the thoroughbred begins his sophomore campaign and trip down the trail to Kentucky and beyond.

But for a champion, they they must feel a little too much like a Rodney for a Hansen.

Back and Better Than Ever

Happy New Year and my apologies for the late start. My wife and I got hit with some kind of cold/flu “this, that and the otheritis” and have been totally out of commission since Christmas. But now it's time to get started and return to the world of blogging about Thoroughbred racing and breeding.

I’m predicting a good year for horse racing with the return of many stars and a sophomore class that has yet to define their leading Kentucky Derby candidates. Five-year-old Caracortado, last seen finishing fifth to Regally Ready in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs in November, has been one of the first stars of previous years to debut the year successfully, winning the grade 3 (Turf) Daytona Stakes at Santa Anita over the weekend, defeating Really Ready (DH for third) and Victory Pete (second) in the process. Mr. Gruff was the other in the dead heat for show.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Hansen and runner-up Union Rags are the probably the two leaders of those trying to get to Kentucky for the Derby presented by Yum! Brands, but like recent years, I’m sure there are many more anonymous stars in the class in weighting who will try to knock them off.

The Eclipse Awards nominations have been announced and I’m hoping Havre de Grace becomes the third consecutive female Horse of the Year, something that has never happened in North American racing history.

As Mike Greenburg of ESPN likes to stay, “We’re back and better than ever” and ready to hit the horse racing blogosphere again.

CashCall Stars Can Emerge From Long Shadows Cast by Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Our last look into the 2011 chrystal ball that is next year’s road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands presents itself Saturday in the $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park. Run in the shadow of the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the CashCall Futurity has neither the $1 million purse nor history of producing divisional champions like the more prestigious Juvenile, but they are both grade 1 and their winners have donned an equal number of rose blankets – one each. Street Sense is the only horse to win both Juvenile (2006) and Kentucky Derby (’07) while Real Quiet won the 1997 CashCall and the Derby the following year.

Both races are also run at distance of 1-1/16 miles.

Championship voters don’t seem to emphasized the similarities between the two races however, and have given the Juvenile significantly more weight in determining their selections. For disclosure, I agree the Juvenile should have greater importance than other grade 1 races in determining the year-end champion. If the industry is going to call the Breeders’ Cup a World Championship, they (we) need to treat it like one. The Eclipse Award voters have that well since the Breedeer Cup first ran some 27 years ago.

Since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was first won by Chief’s Crown in 1984, 20 winners have been named Champion Two-Year-Old Colt or Gelding for that year. Since Roving Boy won the CashCall (then Hollywood Futurity) in 1982 and the corresponding divisional championship, only CashCall winners Declan’s Moon and Looking at Lucky have been honored with Eclipse Awards. The four others named divisional champions during that 27-year span without winning either the CashCall nor the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were Forty Niner (1987), Easy Goer (1988), Dehere (1993) and Maria’s Mon (1995). All four were named 2-year-old male champions after winning their respective Champagne Stakes in New York but losing or not running in the Juvenile.

Forty Niner, Maria Mon’s and Declan’s Moon were champions that did not start in the Breeders’ Cup while Looking at Lucky, Dehere and Easy Goer won the divisional honor after losing in the Breeders’ Cup. Looking at Lucky and Easy Goer were second to long shot Vale of York and Is It True in 1988 and 2009 Juveniles respectively. Dehere was eighth as the odds-on favorite in the 1987 Juvenile won by Success Express before winning his 2-year-old male championship.

What makes the CashCall of more interest is the annual participation and sometimes domination by three-time Derby winning trainer and Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. Baffert has won two of the last three CashCall Futurities and a record five total. Known as the other silver-haired fox from

Arizona (former University of Arizona basketball coach Lute Olsen being the first white-haired legend from the Grand Canyon State), Baffert has won the CashCall with Real Quiet, Captain Steve (1999), Point Given (2000) (photo left), Poineerof the Nile (‘08) and Looking at Lucky.

Also adding to the uniqueness of the CashCall is the artificial Cushion Track material that makes up the main track at Hollywood Park. Last year, Comma to the Top made the CashCall his fifth-straight win, but all were on artificial main tracks or grass. In his first race on natural dirt, Comma to the Top came back to run second in the Santa Anita Derby and then last in the Kentucky Derby, also on dirt. Looking at Lucky would eventually win the Preakness and then repeat as the division champion and show he could run on natural dir and Pioneerof the Nile was second on natural dirt in the Kentucky Derby.

Now, Santa Anita will have their natural dirt for the second time for their winter prep races leading up to the Derby, so any natural dirt-challenged winner of the CashCall will now likely be exposed sooner or prepare the Kentucky Derby over the PolyTrack surfaces at Turfway Park and/ or Keeneland. (see 2010 Derby winner Animal Kingdom.) Any plans to take the Southern California, New York, Arkansas, Florida or Louisiana roads to Kentucky, mean running on natural dirt.

According to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen, Baffert will again be loaded for the CashCall with three 2-year-olds set for the 1-1/16-mile race. Del Mar Futurity winner Drill will try to return to the winners’ circle after graded stakes loses in the Norfolk, Juvenile and Delta Jackpot. Maiden winner Sky Kingdom and Real Quiet Stakes winner Liason will also be saddled by Baffert in this CashCall Futurity.

Not sure other CashCall contenders Basmati and Longview Drive, the place and show horses in the Delta Jackpot in their last start, don’t appear to have enough credentials for the championship, even with a big performance in the CashCall.

No matter, the CashCall winner is sure to move up near the top of many Kentucky Derby 2012 lists of contenders. Winter Future Books will be adjusted and for some, rosy dreams will begin to bloom for others. Regardless of who gets honored with the 2-year-old male title, it will be the Derby that holds all the glamour and history and the CashCall Futurity is more than a month closer than its Breeders’ Cup brother-race. The CashCall Futurity now crawls from beneath the long shadow cast by the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and at least one shining star will emerge and walk into the Hollywood Park winners’ circle Saturday.

Then on to the road that may lead to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Dear Santa

Dear Santa,

First let me again say thank you for coming through so well last year. Havre de Grace and Blind Luck continued their rivalry, the new Santa Anita surface seems to be working, New York has their racinos up and running and Hollywood Park is still open.

This year, I’m toning it down a little bit. Asking for less and hoping that less strain helps you again deliver the items on my wish list and I see them under the tree on Christmas morning – and throughout the entire new year.

I know you’re busy St. Nick, so without further ado:

1 - You keep delivering – and I’ll keep asking. Santa, do what you can to keep Hollywood Park open for another year.

2 - Good TV Ratings for all horse racing telecasts this year. While television ratings for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands remains solid and competitive with major sports such as NBA basketball and major league baseball, it attracts far more viewers than other horse racing telecasts, network or cable. Even the Breeders' Cup can't compete with Kentucky Derby ratings.

So let's ride the coat tails of the Kentucky Derby itself.

This year NBC will provide live coverage of six major Derby prep races over four weeks leading up to the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in May. Good ratings will not only help - and further validate horse racing as a big time sport. A solid amount of viewers watching the Arkansas Derby, for instance, should translate to even better Kentucky Derby television ratings. Wouldn't that be nice?

The series will be highlighted by an NBC telecast of the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial April 7. The 90-minute live telecast will originate from Aqueduct Race Track in New York and Santa Anita near Los Angeles and is the third telecast of the series following the Spiral Stakes from Turfway Park in Kentucky Mar. 24 and the Florida Derby from Gulfstream Park Mar. 31. The Spiral Stakes and Florida Derby will be on NBC Sports Network (formerly Versus) while the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby will be on CNBC on April 14.



3 - I’m not going to ask for a Triple Crown winner again. Since Affirmed won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes back in 1978, American racing has gone without a Triple Crown winner the past 33 years. Each year I ask for a Triple Crown winner and each year, I am rejected. Since Big Brown won the Derby and Preakness in 2008, we haven’t even had hope for a Triple Crown winner going into the Belmont.

So maybe Triple Crown winner is too much to put on a Christmas list. All I ask: Don’t take away our hope even before the Derby because of something silly like an equine liver disease. Not silly as in not sereious. Silly as in "What the dog gone it was that all about?" (See Union Rags)

4 - How about if Tim Tebow were to buy a race horse. We’ll take his winning magic as part of the package but you can keep his passing game. Give that to some Pop Warner team.

5 - Bring Frankel the horse to the United States. Although he is the 2011 European Horse of the Year and Champion 3-year-old, he is named after one of the great American horsemen of our time. Frankel the horse is named for the late Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel. A five-time Eclipse Award winner as champion trainer, Bobby Frankel trained many great horses for Frankel’s owner Juddmonte Farm.

6 - I still haven’t seen trainer Dale Romans and Huckleberry Hound in the same place. Coincidence?

7 - I’ve know you to sneak down to races a time or two each year Santa. I’ve see you and Prancer at Silks lounge at Arlington Park betting Saratoga and Del Mar. But let’s face it – neither of you have time to get to the track in the winter. In fact, I’d like to wish for a winter break on all-tracks after the Breeders’ Cup. Tha’t right Santa – no racing from early November through January. I’ve thought this through Santa and know that it will leave money on the table and create holiday hardships for many people who sell mutual tickets, clean stalls or sell hot dogs and maybe we should wait for the economy to get rolling again before we jump into this. But every sport needs some resemblance of a season.

Most major sports in America need some form of contraction to increase interest and eventually profits in the long run. We know pro football doesn’t work in Los Angeles and baseball is a flop in Tampa Bay. Why there is hockey in Dallas and Phoenix is beyond me. The two lowest attended teams in the NHL, neither Dallas or Phoenix average less than 11,500. That is 2,000 less fans per night than the Columbus Blue Jackets. (I played hockey and had to look up the mascot for Columbus.)

Horse racing also needs to get smaller. And I’d start with no winter racing. Sorry Hollywood Park, Santa Anita, Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds et. al. Your over supplying the market.

8 - And finally Santa, keep all of the jockeys, exercise riders, trainers, stable hands and of course the horses, safe throughout the year.

Sincerely,

Brock Sheridan

Kentucky Derby Musings With My Friend Captain Obvious

I ran into Captain Obvious the other day at the track and as happens between many horse racing enthusiasts this time of year, 2-year-olds became the topic of discussion – specifically as they relate to the 2012 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands.

As is the case most of the time with Obvious, I was not surprised which horses he was going to follow this winter, through the spring Derby prep races and into the Run for the Roses.

“Hansen is my Derby horse,” the Captain proclaimed as if bestowing knowledge and insight into the conversation. “He’s had three races and not only has he won all three, but he’s been in front from the first jump to the wire in every one of ‘em. Never even been headed yet. He won the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvey at a mile and a-sixteenth, so he’s the Derby horse to watch, that’s for sure.”

Why was I then surprised to hear him say Union Rags was also on his Derby radar. Radar? I thought. You don’t need radar to find Union Rags on a list of Derby contenders. You need glasses and maybe even a new hearing aid if you hadn’t heard of Union Rags. He was a head off of being the undefeated champion of the class when the favorite in the Juvenile, he just missed catching Hansen to finish second. It was on TV and everything.

I won’t continue to bore you like Captain Obvious can me with his plebian prognostications, only to say that he list Juvenile third and fourth-place finishers Creative Cause and Dullahan respectively as the others he is watching along with the winners of the Delta Jackpot this Saturday and the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park December 17.

“Really?” I asked. And just before I had a chance to get too agitated, Captain Obvious turned and trotted toward the betting windows, disappearing into the simulcasting crowd on his way to betting another 6-to-5 shot to show.

Two of the horses that Captain Obvious may be looking at are Liaison and Arousing Sermon, the first two finishers I the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood Park Saturday. The Real Quiet is the local prep race for the CashCall Futurity.

His other Derby horse runs Saturday, when the $1 million Delta Jackpot features by far the most accomplished field in the eight times the race has been run during its nine year history. The Delta Jackpot did not run in 2006 due to hurricane Rita. Because of the large purse and graded status, the winner of the Delta Jackpot will have plenty of graded earnings to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Entry eligibility for the Derby is based on earnings in graded races. No preference is given to grade 1 races over grade 2 or 3. Management at Delta Downs in tiny Vinton, Louisiana have taken advantage of the clause and are now bringing top 2-year-olds to Cajun country each December.

Run as a grade 3 since 2006, the Delta Jackpot has attracted its first grade 1 winner in Del Mar Futurity winner Drill. Since Del Mar, Drill was second to Creative Cause in the Norfolk and a disappointing 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Although listed as the 2-to-1 favorite in the Delta Jackpot, the Bob Baffert trainee will have plenty of competition in Vinton. Norfolk fourth-place finisher Basmatie and the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Longview Drive are also heading to Louisiana from California. From Churchill Downs comes Seven Lively Sins off a second in the grade 3 Iroquios Stakes and allowance winners Jake Mo and Laurie’s Rocket.

There are others 2-year-olds to keep an eye on so far, outside of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, CashCall Futurityand Delta Jackpot.

For those not in the Captain Obvious camp, Sheihk Mohammed al Maktoum’s Darley Stables and trainer Kiarin McLaughlin unleashed a good looking son of Bernardini on a field of maidens at Aqueduct over the weekend. A bit of a surprise winning at 13-to-1 odds, Consortium stalked the leaders after breaking well before jockey Alan Garcia let him roll 3-wide around the field and win confidently by nearly five lengths.


After the race, McLaughlin told the Aqueduct public relations staff, “[Consortium] broke sharply and was able to sit and wait. It’s another nice win for Bernardini, he is a great sire.” The stallion fee for second crop sire Bernardini, who stands at Darley Stud, has been doubled to $150,000 for the 2012 breeding season due to his great success in the breeding shed. Consortium is also the first foal out of the Machiavellian mare Marietta, a grade 3 winner of both the Iowa and Arlington Oaks during her racing career. McLaughlin also said they were undecided as to his next start or as to whether he will stay at Aqueduct or move to Gulfstream Park for the winter.

On the west coast, the Empire Maker colt Empire Way has garnered some attention after winning a maiden race at Hollywood Park Sunday. Empire Way is out of the A.P. Indy mare Delta Princess, making him a full brother to Alabama Stakes (gr. 1) and Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic (gr. 1) winner Royal Delta. Empire Way is trained by Mike Harrington and was ridden by Joel Rosario.

Who knows. Maybe for the first time since Street Since in 2006-’07 Hansen will win the Kentucky Derby after taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Then Captain Obvious and probably a whole bunch more can say on the first Sunday of May next year, they picked the Derby winner six months earlier. No matter how you look at it, it would be impressive.

It would just be a little more impressive if we can find the Derby winner coming out of a rather anonymous maiden race. But that won’t change my friend Captain Obvious. He’ll still be betting show tickets on favorites.

A few others of Note:
Hierro - A winner in his third try at Churchill Downs Nov. 9 against maidens he his by Hard Spun, second in the Derby himself and currently the second leading first-crop sire.
Common Bond - A half brother to To Honor and Serve who had some trouble while finishing sixth to Consortium in the bump and run seventh race on Saturday, Nov. 13.
Motor City - A son of Street Sense who won the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on opening day Oct. 30. Motor City is trained by Ian Wilkes and is ridden by three-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel.

Kentucky Derby Conditions Help Wrong Horses Qualify

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is in the books and with it, the $1,080,000 in graded earnings that went to the winner, Hansen (inside horse photo right). Favorite Union Rags missed catching Hansen by just a head in the Juvenile, but still pulled down $360,000 for finishing second and pushing him over $800,000 in graded earnings - or money won in America’s most significant races for 2-year-olds. Graded earnings are not so significant now; for Hansen and Union Rags the differences are small anyway. For horses at this level in their 2-year-old career, graded earnings often only eliminate the $30,000 or so made in the maiden ranks.

Graded earnings become more important when planning for the 2012 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. And when a horse has enough graded earnings to qualify for the Derby by the preceding new year, it makes those plans much, much less stressful.

In the case that more than 20 horses want to enter the Kentucky Derby, the conditions of the race give preference to those with the most earnings in graded races. At least twenty horses have entered the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 with it taking an average of $128,708 to make the entry box over the last six years.

Six months ago, Derby Kitten was the last “bubble” horse to get into the Derby with $120,000. Eventual Preakness winner Shackleford was also one of the final qualifiers for the 2011 Kentucky Derby with $212,000 in graded earnings at entry time. Nowhere to Hide made it into the Derby starting gate with the least graded earnings ($55,500 in 2009) while it took Make Music For Me a record $218,750 to enter in 2010. The Kentucky Derby has been limited to 20 starters since 1975.


Granted, the Derby is still seven months away and the graded earnings list may not be as popular in the water cooler circles as March Madness Basketball brackets or Super Bowl office pools that feature the over/under on how long it takes to sing the National Anthem; but the graded earnings list will be widely followed by racing fans before the first Saturday in May of 2012 arrives.

Whether graded earnings is the best qualifier for a Kentucky Derby field has been the topic of much debate since they were first used to determine the Derby field in 1986. Under particular fire is the rationale behind using performances from horse’s 2-year-old seasons to determine who qualifies for the Derby, run one-third of the way into a horse's 3-year-old campaign.

It is puzzling that the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is so influential on Derby qualifiers when it has only produced one Kentucky Derby winner in 27 years. Street Sense won the 2006 Juvenile and 2007 Kentucky Derby. However, Street Sense was also the last Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to even start in the Kentucky Derby. Among the 2011 Derby field, only 12th-place finisher Stay Thirsty had started in the Juvenile.

Other grade 1 races for 2-year-olds have had been even less productive in producing Kentucky Derby winners, yet graded money earned by running in these races in 2011, will help qualify horses for America’s most important race in 2012.

The last Kentucky Derby winner that also won the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at two was Sea Hero in 1992 and 1993. The last Champagne winner to start in the Derby was Scat Daddy, 18th in the 2007 Derby. By the time the Derby comes around again on May 5, 2012, it will have been two years since a Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) winner made to Kentucky for the Derby when Lookin at Lucky was sixth in the 2010. No winner of the Norfolk Stakes has ever won the Kentucky Derby the following year. It has been since 1984 when Swale won the Kentucky Derby after winning what is now the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, Keeneland’s Fall grade 1 event for 2-year-old colts and geldings.

Yet Dullahan, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity and third in the Juvenile, and Creative Cause, the Norfolk winner and fourth in the Juvenile, join Hansen and Union Rags with enough money already to qualify for the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

There is still the grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park with its $750,000 purse and the $1 million Delta Jackpot (gr. 3) at Delta Downs yet to be run before year’s end.

Previously known as the Hollywood Futurity, the CashCall Futurity has had plenty of prestige in its 31-year history with its winners including Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet, Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given, Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy, Best Pal and Snow Chief.

But the Delta Downs Jackpot was designed to be affiliated with the Kentucky Derby. Sponsored by Boyd Gaming, the Delta Downs Jackpot was first run in 2002 at one mile. The next year, the race was increased to 1-1/16 miles in distance and given a $1 million money with hopes of attracting top horses. The plan worked and in 2006 the Delta Jackpot ran as a grade 3 race.

Once the graded status came, the major horsemen followed. Delta Downs Jackpot winners included Birdbirdistheword (2006), Z Humor (2007-DH), Turf War (2007-DH) Big Drama (2008), Rule (2009), and Gourment Dinner last year. Only Z Humor has made it to the Derby, finishing 14th, but Rule and Big Drama went on to productive careers. Rule stayed on the Kentucky Derby trail winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) and finished third in the Florida Derby before being sidelined by injury. Big Drama just retired as the winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint and earnings of more than $2.7 million.

Pre-entries for the November 19, Delta Jackpot include Drill, the Bob Baffert-trained winner of the grade 1 Del Mar Futurity but a disappointing tenth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; and Jake Mo, fifth in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. The day at Delta Downs also includes the $500,000 Delta Downs Princess among the eight stakes and $2.2 million in purses that night.

There are no rooms available at the Delta Downs Casino and Hotel for Friday or Saturday night next week, so the Delta Downs Jackpot has put “butts in seats” as they say in sports marketing. It has also promoted the racing instituted by Director of Racing Chris Warren who has channeled the casino money effectively into his racing program. As a further indication of the Jackpot quality, trainers Steve Asmussen, Kelly Breem, Al Stall Jr., Bret Calhoun and Jerry Hollendorfer also have horses pre-entered in the Jackpot.

The Delta Downs Jackpot will also create another 2-year-old qualified for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Along with the CashCall Futurity winner, the top four finishers from the Juvenile; Wrote, winner of the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle, at least eight 2-year-olds will have more than the $300,000 In graded earnings, more than what is expected to be needed to enter the Kentucky Derby.

By no means does that mean that all eight will make it to the Kentucky Derby. But it does mean that these eight will have less pressure put on them in February, March and April when other 3-year-olds are trying to accumulate graded earnings. Logic and history tell us the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial and such have the greatest impact on the Kentucky Derby.

Horses in those races are making their final preparations for Kentucky and have already overcome many of the obstacles that will stop a great many of the top 2-year-olds from the year before. And it would be a shame to see an close third-place finisher in the grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes get excluded because a horse earned money in the grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs nearly a year ago.

But that is the way the Kentucky Derby conditions read. And until they are changed, I hope the south Louisiana fans get to see a future Kentucky Derby winner. And I congratulate Delta Downs management for taking advantage.

Summer At Saratoga Extended Thru 2014

The National Broadcasting Company Sports Group and the New York Racing Association have agreed to terms to extend the Summer at Saratoga live series through 2014.

During it's first season this Summer, three of the hour-long programs were telecast were on NBC, with five others on the NBC Sports affiliate network Versus. Versus will become the NBC Sports Network on Jan. 2, 2012. The eight programs were telecast during a seven week span.

Extending the series another two years is a further indication of the commitment to horse racing by NBC Sports. The eight Saratoga telecasts over seven weeks were the most extensive live national broadcasts of horse racing ever.

NBC Sports is quickly becoming the home of live horse racing on network television. This year NBC became the first network since 2005 to telecast all three Triple Crown races in the same year. NBC was also the last to air all three Triple Crown races having aired the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) in 2005.

NBC Sports will also air a similar series from Keeneland during their 2011 Fall meeting in October.

While NBC Sports has significantly increased their coverage of live horse racing during this year, it’s not because some vice president at NBC headquarters in New York has a daughter that likes “horseys” or because The Today Show’s Matt Lauer is a big fan of the game.

Horse racing has again generated good ratings. Coverage of the Travers and King’s Bishop Stakes earned a .7 rating according to Sports Media Watch’s web site. That equates to roughly 1.054 million viewers. By comparison the U.S. Open Series Winston Salem Open Men’s Tennis final between John Isner and Julien Benneteau drew a .04 final rating on CBS the same day. Also that afternoon, the first weekend of the 2011 World Track and Field Championships earned a 1.2 final rating.

For comparison, the 2011 Kentucky Derby drew an 8.5 rating while the Preakness and Belmont earned 6.0 and 4.3 ratings this year respectively. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic earned a 2.5 final rating. Ratings for the live coverage of Zenyatta's only career loss in the 2010 Classic was the highest rating for a Breeders' Cup in four years and was higher than any Major League Baseball game telecast on ESPN during the 2010 season. NBC earned a 14.3 final rating Sunday for the National Football League game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons.


Brock The Horse Still Winless

Brock the horse looked like a million dollars in the post parade of Belmont's third race Wednesday and the players agreed. Going off as the 6-to-5 favorite in the field of six, the $2.3 million auction purchase again failed to break his maiden is his sixth try, finishing second to winner Steele Bridge. Even less unfortunate is that Brock almost doubled his career earnings Wednesday with the $10,200 check that boosted his career earnings to $25,920.

Triple Crown Could Benefit From Dog Days of Summer

Just about this time every year the dog days of summer begin as daily triple digit temperatures become the baking norm for some while humidity joins heat to beat down others. If you not just closing your umbrella and taking off you sweater in Seattle, bouncing on a boat in Lake Superior or hiking around Colorado at about 6,000 feet elevation, these are the days when weather is no longer a topic but a concern. It can be dangerously hot.

The dog days of summer are also a miserable time for sports fans with apologies to major league baseball who consider July Fourth the unofficial start of the “things are getting serious in the standings now” season. So by their own definition, many of fans of the boys of summer are just now cranking up their enthusiasm while reading box scores and checking the standings more often.

Fans of the National Football League (in non-lock out years) are still weeks away from training camp and pre-season games; while college football fans are still counting down to the start of their season in months. The National Basketball Association crowned their champions weeks ago, as did the National Hockey League. Women’s World Cup Soccer, Wimbleton Tennis and Derek Jeter’s awkward march toward 3,000 hits are among the major sports stories now and over the July Fourth weekend.

I say this not to sound like the 11-year-old children who repeatedly whine to their mothers, “I’m board!” in every U.S. town and city this time of year. I bring this up to illustrate perhaps a lost opportunity for thoroughbred racing. Let me be clear, however. This is no criticism of racing departments throughout America. They put on a great weekend of racing nationally with Flat Out continuing the trend of upset winners in the older horse division by winning the Suburban (gr. 2); and Smiling Tiger served notice to male sprinters on the West Coast by winning the Triple Bend (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park. Cross country, Teaks North gave similar warning to turf horses with his win the United Nations (gr. 1) at Monmouth Park. The Dwyer (gr. 2) at Belmont Park, the Shoemaker Mile (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park and the Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs are just a small sampling of great races this past weekend.

None of those races, however, were nationally televised by a network. They probably never will be. In order for racing to guarantee a network telecast, it has to fire one of their four big bullets – the Triple Crown races and the Breeders’ Cup. And the most logical race to move to July 4 weekend – the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) - third leg of the Triple Crown.

Moving the Belmont Stakes may seem a bit radical, but there has been a large contingent of trainers, owners and media who have criticized the current Triple Crown schedule as to rigid. After the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) is run on the first Saturday in May, the Preakness is just two weeks later with three between the second leg and the Belmont Stakes. It has, after all, been 33 years since Affirmed won the last Triple Crown in 1978.

Grade 1 horses are not used racing three times in five weeks say these critics. Today’s top thoroughbreds typically race no more frequent than every four to six weeks. Why then, is the sport’s most important series of races substantially different? The answers are as old as they can be annoying.

Because that’s the way it’s always been. You can’t change the way the game is played. It won’t be fair to compare the new Triple Crown winners to the old ones. How do we compare the records?


These are many of the same arguments professional baseball heard when they expanded the schedule from 162 regular season games to 182 games. When the NFL merged with the All-American Football Conference in 1950, they played 12 regular season games. Last year the league played 16 regular season games and are considering 18. Baseball’s American League plays with a designated hitter. It would be difficult to change the game of baseball more that in one fell swoop again. And the NFL has been changing tackling rules going back to when they outlawed clothes line tackles and grabbing face masking.

So you can change the way the game is played as exemplified by the most successful professional North American sports over the last 50 years – baseball and football.


The new Triple Crown would obviously start on the first Saturday in May with the Kentucky Derby. The Preakness could be run four weeks later with the Belmont coming after five more weeks, concluding the Triple Crown each year on the Saturday of the July 4 weekend.

As mentioned above, moving the Belmont Stakes to July 4 weekend would take advantage of the very slow time in American sports. A patriotic Belmont would not likely attract more television viewers than the Coke Zero 400 NASCAR race from Daytona (also run this past weekend), but should have little problem with regular season baseball in early July, Wimbleton Tennis or the Professional Golfers’ Association tournament that week. In years when a potential Triple Crown winner races in the Belmont, horse racing will knock most of these sports out of the proverbial television ratings park.

Stringing out the Triple Crown may also reverse a troubling trend in the races leading up to the Triple Crown. Because of the grueling five week test of the Triple Crown schedule, trainers are running in fewer races preparing for the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown schedule. They want fresh horses going into those races so they are running in few races in the months leading up to the Derby. The last five Kentucky Derby winners had only two prep races in the months before their respective Kentucky Derbies.

That trend hasn’t seemed to impact the major grade 1 Derby preps such as the Florida, Arkansas and Santa Anita Derbies, nor the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes or Resort World New York Casino Wood Memorial. But early graded preps like the Robert Lewis Stakes, Risen Star Stakes and Holy Bull Stakes are becoming less and less significant. At the very least, they are currently less attractive to the trainers with Kentucky Derby aspirations than in years past.

In the modern sports arena horse racing has been relegated to a position far below the NFL, college football and NASCAAR in their popularity and ability to draw television viewers. Major league baseball and the National Basketball Association may have challenges in the televisions ratings for given games, but their popularity is unquestionably above that of horse racing. Trainers, like football coaches and baseball managers, have a strong tendencies to copy what the champions are doing.

In such a competitive environment for the attention and dollars of American sports fans, there are very few opportunities to acquire a bigger piece of the sports pie. It would take more than a few tweaks to change the schedule of the Triple Crown, and it would no doubt create long debates comparing Triple Crown winners of yore with any future horse who may win the three races in the classic series.

Sometimes big change can also result in big pay-offs. To be fair they can end with big failures too. But horse racing may have an opportunity. It is an opportunity to capitalize on a slow time on our nation’s sports calendar. It is an opportunity to align one of our premier events with a big national holiday. And an opportunity to excel in when others are melting in the dog days of summer.

Horse of the Year Race Slow After Six Months

Approaching the six-month mark in 2011 and nobody has a hint as to who might be Horse of the Year. There are plenty of possibilities with perhaps even more predictions, but at the half-way mark of this second or third year of the decade depending on how you look at it - nobody has come to the forefront in the run for the golden Eclipse Award.

Three different horses won the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) for the second consecutive year and Derby winner Animal Kingdom is now out for the year with a slab fracture. There are no stars in the older horse ranks and for the first time in North American history, there are rumblings of three consecutive female Horse of the Year titles. Zenyatta was Horse of the Year last year and Rachel Alexandra took home the golden statue in 2009.

Preakness winners in recent years at least have some bling in their trophy cases giving Shackleford fans some hope. Since Derby winner Charismatic won Horse of the Year in 1999, (he also won the Preakness that year) three Preakness winners have been honored with the golden Eclipse Award. Preakness winners Point Given (2001), Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra were all so honored without Kentucky Derby victories. The last Derby winner to garner Horse of the Year without a Preakness win was Spend A Buck in 1985.

Belmont winner Ruler on Ice also might have something going for him depending on your definition of asset. Although the Test of Champions has not produced the number of Horse of the Year winners in recent years, the three most contemporary Belmont winners to be named HOY were Point Given 10 years ago, A.P. Indy in 1992 and Conquistador Cielo 10 years before that. So if the Belmont Stakes continues its recent trend of producing a Horse of the Year every ten years or so, Ruler on Ice may be right on schedule. Which brings us back to the definition of asset.

Adding further optimism to the Shackleford and Ruler on Ice camps, Rachel Alexandra and Curlin also won only one Triple Crown race. Both won the Preakness and then showed what it takes for a 3-year-old to get Horse of the Year post Triple Crown.

Rachel Alexandra won the Mother Goose against fillies, the Haskell Invitational against colts again, and the Woodward against older horses to finish her 2009 campaign. All three of her year-end races were grade 1, at three different tracks and Rachel had zero losses on the year to boot.

Curlin wasn’t so accomplished losing the Belmont to Rags to Riches after his Preakness win. He was then third behind Any Given Sunday and Hard Spun in the Haskell. But Curlin hit his stride in his last two races defeating older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1).

Not that any of the current 3-year-old males can’t make a late season run, but Curlin and Rachel Alexandra illustrate just how high that Horse of the Year bar has been set.

As in most years, the older horse division is most likely to produce the HOY but they too have struggled to produce a favorite. Donn Handicap winner Giant Oak has lost three straight since taking the division's first grade 1 race in January and Game On Dude, upset winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. 1) in more ways than one, lost the grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap to Awesome Gem in his next start. The other grade 1 race for older horses at a mile or more, the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs, produced long shot winner Pool Play, who returned $75.20 to his supporters that day.

Perhaps the front runners for Horse of the Year as June turns to July come from the ranks of the older fillies and mares. Havre de Grace may have the slight advantage in that division as the winner of three graded races this year including the prestigious Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. 1) at Oaklawn Park. A recent winner of the grade 3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park, Havre de Grace is on target for the grade 1 Delaware Handicap July 16.

Although a slow starter this year with three consecutive seconds in graded stakes, Blind Luck (photo above) remains the longtime nemesis of Havre de Grace in a rivalry that goes back to the Delaware Oaks (gr. 2) last year won by former. Havre de Grace has the edge this year, however, defeating Blind Luck in the Azeri Stakes (gr. 3) in March at Oaklawn. Blind Luck then came back to win the grade 2 La Troinne at Churchill Downs before recently defeating an accomplished group of fillies and mares in the grade I Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park.

Meanwhile, Awesome Maria has gone undefeated in four races this year including winning the grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park. Trainer Todd Pletcher has indicated that the grade I Ruffian at Saratoga may be the next start for Awesome Maria who was among the top 2-year-old fillies on the East coast last year.

Should a female win the Horse of the Year again this year after Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and Zenyatta last year, it will be the first time in the history of North American thoroughbred racing that females will have been named Horse of the Year in three consecutive years. Since the Horse of the Year was established in 1887, Twilight Tear and Busher in 1944-’45 respectively, were the only other females to win Horse of the Year in consecutive years, so the odds seem a little stacked against the ladies. There may not be another Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta in this group of older fillies and mares, but they do bring enough name recognition and industry credentials to be respected.

Perhaps todays male have some respect, but none of the colts, horses and geldings racing today have quite yet obtained the credentials of some of their female counterparts. This may not quite be Tea Leoni and David Duchonvy splitting up, but it is soon time for all to step up make some Horse of the Year waves.

Championship Path Can Skip Triple Crown Wins

With the less than star power talent of the thoroughbred colts and geldings class of 2011, it seems the times are ripe for perhaps a late season run by a non-winner of a Triple Crown race for year-end championship honors.

Three horses have been named the champion 3-year-old male in the last 30 years without winning the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1), Preakness (gr. 1) or Belmont Stakes (gr. 1). Tiznow was the most recent to take home the divisional eclipse award after going 0-for-triple crown in 2000 while Skip Away (photo left) in 1996 and Holy Bull two years earlier, also share the distinction.

Holy Bull was one of the early stars of the 1994 class chasing after the Kentucky Derby after going undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old including a victory in the grade 1 Futurity. The big grey colt started 1994 just as hot, winning the grade 2 Hutchinson Stakes at Gulfstream Park keeping his record unblemished. The son of Great Above then had his first bad race in the Fountain of Youth, tiring badly to finish sixth, more than 24 lengths behind winner Dehere. But trainer Warren Croll bounced right back with Holy Bull, and won both the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Blue Grass (gr. 2) Stakes as they headed to Kentucky with jockey Mike Smith as the favorite.

But Holy Bull broke slow in the Kentucky Derby and he was never able to completely recover, finishing a well beaten twelfth behind Go For Gin. Croll then decided to rest Holy Bull and skipped they both the Preakness and Belmont.

But Holy Bull came back stronger than ever, winning the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. 1), Dwyer Stakes (gr. 2), Haskell Invitational (gr. 1), Travers (gr. 1) and Woodward (gr. 1) to end the year with a five-race winning streak and eight wins in ten starts. He also accumulated more than $2 million in earnings that year and was also named Horse of the Year for 1994.

Tiznow and Skip Away both started their championship years much more inconspicuously than Holy Bull. It took Tiznow three races to break his maiden as a 3-year-old in Southern California and Skip Away bled and was distanced in his first race as sophomore at Gulfstream Park.

Also unlike Holy Bull, Skip Away started in all three Triple Crown events after finishing third in the Florida Derby and winning the Blue Grass that year. He would go winless in the three races, however, finishing 12th in the Derby and second to both Louis Quartorze in the Preakness and Editor’s Note in the Belmont.

There would be no rest for Skip Away though, as he went to win the Ohio Derby (gr. 2) three weeks later before winning the Haskell Invitational and finishing third in the Travers behind Will's Way and Louis Quartorze. The son of Skip Trial then finished the year winning the Woodbine Million (gr. 1) and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) over the great Cigar.

After breaking his maiden at Hollywood Park May 31, it was already post Kentucky Derby and Preakness for Tiznow in 2000. But he would win the grade 2 Affirmed in his next race before a string of seconds against grade 1 company hit him in the Swaps and Pacific Classic against older horses. But Tiznow was not deterred and kept on rolling while winning the Super Derby (gr. 1) at Louisiana Downs and the Goodwood Handicap (gr. 1) back in Southern California. Trainer Jay Robbins put the son of Cee's Tizzy back on a plane and he soon at Churchill Downs defeating Giant’s Causeway to win his first Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) (photo right). Like Holy Bull in 1994, Tiznow concluded his year with the Championship 3-Year-Old Male trophy but the golden Horse of the Year Ecplise as well.

There are candidates for such a run in 2011 with Mucho Macho Man among the possibilities. Celebrating his real birthday (official birthday for thoroughbreds is Jan. 1) just this month, he is likely to continue to grow into his large frame and may excel on the track at the same time. He is the only non-winner of any of the Triple Crown races to start in all three this year finishing third in the Derby, sixth in the Preakness and seventh in the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont second and third-place finishers Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed respectively should be late season contenders with their late running styles that may have compromised them in the Belmont. Santiva, eighth in the Belmont Stakes, may be another late bloomer who will benefit running in races at much more conventional distances than the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes.

There are some other possibilities for some earlier stars to return to racing after not making the Triple Crown. Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor and pre-Derby favorite Uncle Mo are considered likely to return. The Factor has been recovering from minor throat surgery and may start in the Aug. 27 King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga while Uncle Mo continues to recover from a liver ailment that forced to be withdrawn from the Derby at the last hour. There may be another Tiznow out there as well that remains virtually anonymous for the first six months before exploding to success in the later part of 2011. One-time Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) favorite Jaycito may not be so under the radar, but certainly has the potential for late season success.

There are certainly plenty of big races left on the racing calendar dispite with the less informed racing fan might think. The Jim Dandy (gr. 2) and Travers are the big races for 3-year-olds at Saratoga and the Haskell Invitational likewise at Monmouth Park. There will be plenty of opportunities for sophomores to take on their older brethren in the Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup in the East and the Hollywood Gold Cup, Pacific Classic and Goodwood on the West Coast to name but a few.

There is no doubt that Derby winner Animal Kingdom, Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont champion Ruler On Ice all have a jump on the field in pursuing the Eclipse Award over all other 3-year-old colts and geldings. But they will likely have to win more than their respective Triple Crown jewels to remain in the race for the championship.

Belmont Trends Say Stay Close Early

With the post positions now set and the morning line made for the 143rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I) Saturday, handicappers and prognosticators can now get underway. But before speed figures are studied and past performances perused, perhaps defining what it takes to win the Belmont Stakes is in order. After all, with the 1-1/2 mile distance, the sandy Belmont main track, the wide sweeping turns and it place as the third leg of the grueling Triple Crown to name a few of the races nuances, the Belmont Stakes is among the most unique in North America.

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) winner Animal Kingdom has been installed as the morning line favorite with 5-to-2 odds. Unfortunately, being either the Derby winner or the favorite have not been so prosperous in the concrete jungle where dreams are made of.

In the last 30 years, only Swale in 1984 and Thunder Gulch 11 years later, have won both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. During that same span, seven others who won the Run for the Roses finished second – sometimes heartbreaking seconds – in the Belmont. Smarty Jones (2004), Real Quiet (1999), Silver Charm (’97) and Sunday Silence all finished second in the Belmont to end their bid for the Triple Crown. Pleasant Colony (’81), Alysheba (’87), Charismatic (’99),War Emblem ('02)and Big Brown (’08) were less dramatic in losing their Triple Crowns in the Belmont.

Favorites have not fared so well in the last three decades either. Only six favorites have won the last 30 runnings (20%) of the Belmont Stakes with the last being Afleet Alex in 2005. Other favorites to don the white carnations in the Belmont winners’ circle were Point Given (’01), Thunder Gulch, A.P. Indy (’92), Risen Star (’88) and Swale.

Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro has been assigned the role as second favorite in the morning line at 4-to-1. If Nehro goes to the gate in the Belmont as the second most popular among punters, he will have a considerable advantage, at least from a historical perspective, over the favorite. In the last 30 years, ten Belmont winners (30%) have gone off as the second choice In the wagering.

Although many wrongly assume that the 12 furlong Belmont plays into an advantage for closers, trainer Steve Asmussen may want jockey Corey Nakatani to repeat his strategy in the Kentucky Derby with Nehro. Previously a closer from as far back as tenth-place in earlier races, Nehro was sixth after the first half-mile of the Derby, but was just more than 3 lengths from the lead.

That seems to be the cat bird seat in the Belmont Stakes, or near that margin anyway. Looking back 30 years again, only five horses have won the Belmont virtually from gate to wire and seven others have won the race from 6-1/2 lengths off the lead or more after the first four furlongs. The other 18 winners raced from between a half-length to 3-1/2 lengths off the lead early in their victorious romps in New York.

It would not be smart to totally discount a front runner like Shackleford, however. With little competition for the front-runner position, Shackleford is likely to try to join the likes of Da’ Tara (2008), Touch Gold, Swale and Conquistador Cielo in 1982 as those who won after leading early in the Belmont. Touch Gold throws a bit of a monkey wrench into this analysis after his quirky 1997 victory in which he lead after a half-mile, then dropped back to fourth, before making another run to catch Silver Charm at the wire.

And not all speedsters are completely defeated by the long Belmont distance. Nine other front runners have held on to finish second or third in the last 30 years. In fact, in the last three years, the pace-setter has finished in the top two with First Dude and Dunkirk both finishing second last year and 2009 respectively; and Da’ Tara winning.

Preakness winners have had their challenges in the Belmont with only five winning the second and third jewels of the Triple Crown in the last 30 years including Afleet Alex (’05), Point Given (’01), Tobasco Cat (’94), Hansel (’91) and Risen Star.

Master of Hounds returns to the United States from his base in trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Britain after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby and returning to Europe. In the last 30 years, he will be the 11th invader to start in the Belmont Stakes after traveling to New York from abroad with only Go And Go winning in 1990. Others of note were Le Voyageur, third in the 1989 Belmont behind Easy Goer and Sunday Silence; and My Memoirs, second to A.P. Indy in 1992.

The history of the Belmont is as interesting and unique as the race itself and over the last 30 years some trends seem to have developed. Speed horses, obviously, do not win the Belmont with any regularity, but they stay in the top three more often than some might think. Closers seem to have their challenges as well while staying close to the pace seems to be the winning formula.

The race has certainly measured up to its moniker as the Test of Champions as ten of the last 30 winner’s have been recognized as the divisional champion at year’s end and 59 in all. It is a large field that has entered to run in the 2011 Belmont with 12 slated to start in one of the oldest races in North America. Whether this Belmont is to be won by Derby champion Animal Kingdom, invader Master of Hounds, Preakness winner Shackleford or any other, after the race, somebody will be under the bright lights of New York and all its fame and history.