The Brock Talk

Friday, May 14, 2010

Preakness Betting Strategy: Bet The Obvious

The odds of any horse having significant trouble in four consecutive races have got be something famous mathematician Steven Hawking would calculate. In other words, they have to be very high. And that's what I'm banking on by staying on the Lookin at Lucky band wagon and making him my top pick in the 135th running of the Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) Saturday at Pimlico Race Course. How much of a detrimental effect all of that bumping has had on Lookin at Lucky, plus the rider change from future Hall of Famer Garrett Gomez to the 20-year-old Martin Garcia, are all legitimate questions, but I'm still all aboard the Baffert express for at least one more race.

Super Saver appeared to fall in line with what is widely considered to be a sub-par 3-year-old crop of 2010 until his victory in the biggest dance of all the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1). Yes, he had the benefit of one of the few to have a good trip around the Churchill Downs oval in the Derby, but I'm going to have to trust trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Calvin Borel in their profession that Super Saver has greatly improved since his previous losses in the Tampa Bay (gr. 3) and Arkansas (gr. 1) Derbies. Super Saver's 104 Beyer Speed figure in the Derby also lends credibility to their statements.

Simplistic as it may seem, I see this as two-horse race and I'll have a good old fashioned $10 7-8 exacta box in the Preakness.

I'm going to run a few $1 trifectas to back up my exacta with a 7-All-8 and a 8-All-7 for $20 and hope I get a longshot to get up and split my exacta should that happen.

It's not the most adventurous betting strategy in the world, and quite frankly one in which I've left my favorite adverse comfort zone. But sometimes one just has to bet what looks to be the obvious.

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