Dear Santa

Dear Santa,

First let me again say thank you for coming through so well last year. Havre de Grace and Blind Luck continued their rivalry, the new Santa Anita surface seems to be working, New York has their racinos up and running and Hollywood Park is still open.

This year, I’m toning it down a little bit. Asking for less and hoping that less strain helps you again deliver the items on my wish list and I see them under the tree on Christmas morning – and throughout the entire new year.

I know you’re busy St. Nick, so without further ado:

1 - You keep delivering – and I’ll keep asking. Santa, do what you can to keep Hollywood Park open for another year.

2 - Good TV Ratings for all horse racing telecasts this year. While television ratings for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands remains solid and competitive with major sports such as NBA basketball and major league baseball, it attracts far more viewers than other horse racing telecasts, network or cable. Even the Breeders' Cup can't compete with Kentucky Derby ratings.

So let's ride the coat tails of the Kentucky Derby itself.

This year NBC will provide live coverage of six major Derby prep races over four weeks leading up to the Run for the Roses on the first Saturday in May. Good ratings will not only help - and further validate horse racing as a big time sport. A solid amount of viewers watching the Arkansas Derby, for instance, should translate to even better Kentucky Derby television ratings. Wouldn't that be nice?

The series will be highlighted by an NBC telecast of the Santa Anita Derby and the Wood Memorial April 7. The 90-minute live telecast will originate from Aqueduct Race Track in New York and Santa Anita near Los Angeles and is the third telecast of the series following the Spiral Stakes from Turfway Park in Kentucky Mar. 24 and the Florida Derby from Gulfstream Park Mar. 31. The Spiral Stakes and Florida Derby will be on NBC Sports Network (formerly Versus) while the Blue Grass Stakes and Arkansas Derby will be on CNBC on April 14.



3 - I’m not going to ask for a Triple Crown winner again. Since Affirmed won the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont Stakes back in 1978, American racing has gone without a Triple Crown winner the past 33 years. Each year I ask for a Triple Crown winner and each year, I am rejected. Since Big Brown won the Derby and Preakness in 2008, we haven’t even had hope for a Triple Crown winner going into the Belmont.

So maybe Triple Crown winner is too much to put on a Christmas list. All I ask: Don’t take away our hope even before the Derby because of something silly like an equine liver disease. Not silly as in not sereious. Silly as in "What the dog gone it was that all about?" (See Union Rags)

4 - How about if Tim Tebow were to buy a race horse. We’ll take his winning magic as part of the package but you can keep his passing game. Give that to some Pop Warner team.

5 - Bring Frankel the horse to the United States. Although he is the 2011 European Horse of the Year and Champion 3-year-old, he is named after one of the great American horsemen of our time. Frankel the horse is named for the late Hall of Fame trainer Bobby Frankel. A five-time Eclipse Award winner as champion trainer, Bobby Frankel trained many great horses for Frankel’s owner Juddmonte Farm.

6 - I still haven’t seen trainer Dale Romans and Huckleberry Hound in the same place. Coincidence?

7 - I’ve know you to sneak down to races a time or two each year Santa. I’ve see you and Prancer at Silks lounge at Arlington Park betting Saratoga and Del Mar. But let’s face it – neither of you have time to get to the track in the winter. In fact, I’d like to wish for a winter break on all-tracks after the Breeders’ Cup. Tha’t right Santa – no racing from early November through January. I’ve thought this through Santa and know that it will leave money on the table and create holiday hardships for many people who sell mutual tickets, clean stalls or sell hot dogs and maybe we should wait for the economy to get rolling again before we jump into this. But every sport needs some resemblance of a season.

Most major sports in America need some form of contraction to increase interest and eventually profits in the long run. We know pro football doesn’t work in Los Angeles and baseball is a flop in Tampa Bay. Why there is hockey in Dallas and Phoenix is beyond me. The two lowest attended teams in the NHL, neither Dallas or Phoenix average less than 11,500. That is 2,000 less fans per night than the Columbus Blue Jackets. (I played hockey and had to look up the mascot for Columbus.)

Horse racing also needs to get smaller. And I’d start with no winter racing. Sorry Hollywood Park, Santa Anita, Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Churchill Downs, Fair Grounds et. al. Your over supplying the market.

8 - And finally Santa, keep all of the jockeys, exercise riders, trainers, stable hands and of course the horses, safe throughout the year.

Sincerely,

Brock Sheridan

Summer At Saratoga Extended Thru 2014

The National Broadcasting Company Sports Group and the New York Racing Association have agreed to terms to extend the Summer at Saratoga live series through 2014.

During it's first season this Summer, three of the hour-long programs were telecast were on NBC, with five others on the NBC Sports affiliate network Versus. Versus will become the NBC Sports Network on Jan. 2, 2012. The eight programs were telecast during a seven week span.

Extending the series another two years is a further indication of the commitment to horse racing by NBC Sports. The eight Saratoga telecasts over seven weeks were the most extensive live national broadcasts of horse racing ever.

NBC Sports is quickly becoming the home of live horse racing on network television. This year NBC became the first network since 2005 to telecast all three Triple Crown races in the same year. NBC was also the last to air all three Triple Crown races having aired the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) in 2005.

NBC Sports will also air a similar series from Keeneland during their 2011 Fall meeting in October.

While NBC Sports has significantly increased their coverage of live horse racing during this year, it’s not because some vice president at NBC headquarters in New York has a daughter that likes “horseys” or because The Today Show’s Matt Lauer is a big fan of the game.

Horse racing has again generated good ratings. Coverage of the Travers and King’s Bishop Stakes earned a .7 rating according to Sports Media Watch’s web site. That equates to roughly 1.054 million viewers. By comparison the U.S. Open Series Winston Salem Open Men’s Tennis final between John Isner and Julien Benneteau drew a .04 final rating on CBS the same day. Also that afternoon, the first weekend of the 2011 World Track and Field Championships earned a 1.2 final rating.

For comparison, the 2011 Kentucky Derby drew an 8.5 rating while the Preakness and Belmont earned 6.0 and 4.3 ratings this year respectively. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic earned a 2.5 final rating. Ratings for the live coverage of Zenyatta's only career loss in the 2010 Classic was the highest rating for a Breeders' Cup in four years and was higher than any Major League Baseball game telecast on ESPN during the 2010 season. NBC earned a 14.3 final rating Sunday for the National Football League game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons.


Brock The Horse Still Winless

Brock the horse looked like a million dollars in the post parade of Belmont's third race Wednesday and the players agreed. Going off as the 6-to-5 favorite in the field of six, the $2.3 million auction purchase again failed to break his maiden is his sixth try, finishing second to winner Steele Bridge. Even less unfortunate is that Brock almost doubled his career earnings Wednesday with the $10,200 check that boosted his career earnings to $25,920.

Horse of the Year Race Slow After Six Months

Approaching the six-month mark in 2011 and nobody has a hint as to who might be Horse of the Year. There are plenty of possibilities with perhaps even more predictions, but at the half-way mark of this second or third year of the decade depending on how you look at it - nobody has come to the forefront in the run for the golden Eclipse Award.

Three different horses won the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) for the second consecutive year and Derby winner Animal Kingdom is now out for the year with a slab fracture. There are no stars in the older horse ranks and for the first time in North American history, there are rumblings of three consecutive female Horse of the Year titles. Zenyatta was Horse of the Year last year and Rachel Alexandra took home the golden statue in 2009.

Preakness winners in recent years at least have some bling in their trophy cases giving Shackleford fans some hope. Since Derby winner Charismatic won Horse of the Year in 1999, (he also won the Preakness that year) three Preakness winners have been honored with the golden Eclipse Award. Preakness winners Point Given (2001), Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra were all so honored without Kentucky Derby victories. The last Derby winner to garner Horse of the Year without a Preakness win was Spend A Buck in 1985.

Belmont winner Ruler on Ice also might have something going for him depending on your definition of asset. Although the Test of Champions has not produced the number of Horse of the Year winners in recent years, the three most contemporary Belmont winners to be named HOY were Point Given 10 years ago, A.P. Indy in 1992 and Conquistador Cielo 10 years before that. So if the Belmont Stakes continues its recent trend of producing a Horse of the Year every ten years or so, Ruler on Ice may be right on schedule. Which brings us back to the definition of asset.

Adding further optimism to the Shackleford and Ruler on Ice camps, Rachel Alexandra and Curlin also won only one Triple Crown race. Both won the Preakness and then showed what it takes for a 3-year-old to get Horse of the Year post Triple Crown.

Rachel Alexandra won the Mother Goose against fillies, the Haskell Invitational against colts again, and the Woodward against older horses to finish her 2009 campaign. All three of her year-end races were grade 1, at three different tracks and Rachel had zero losses on the year to boot.

Curlin wasn’t so accomplished losing the Belmont to Rags to Riches after his Preakness win. He was then third behind Any Given Sunday and Hard Spun in the Haskell. But Curlin hit his stride in his last two races defeating older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1).

Not that any of the current 3-year-old males can’t make a late season run, but Curlin and Rachel Alexandra illustrate just how high that Horse of the Year bar has been set.

As in most years, the older horse division is most likely to produce the HOY but they too have struggled to produce a favorite. Donn Handicap winner Giant Oak has lost three straight since taking the division's first grade 1 race in January and Game On Dude, upset winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. 1) in more ways than one, lost the grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap to Awesome Gem in his next start. The other grade 1 race for older horses at a mile or more, the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs, produced long shot winner Pool Play, who returned $75.20 to his supporters that day.

Perhaps the front runners for Horse of the Year as June turns to July come from the ranks of the older fillies and mares. Havre de Grace may have the slight advantage in that division as the winner of three graded races this year including the prestigious Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. 1) at Oaklawn Park. A recent winner of the grade 3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park, Havre de Grace is on target for the grade 1 Delaware Handicap July 16.

Although a slow starter this year with three consecutive seconds in graded stakes, Blind Luck (photo above) remains the longtime nemesis of Havre de Grace in a rivalry that goes back to the Delaware Oaks (gr. 2) last year won by former. Havre de Grace has the edge this year, however, defeating Blind Luck in the Azeri Stakes (gr. 3) in March at Oaklawn. Blind Luck then came back to win the grade 2 La Troinne at Churchill Downs before recently defeating an accomplished group of fillies and mares in the grade I Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park.

Meanwhile, Awesome Maria has gone undefeated in four races this year including winning the grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park. Trainer Todd Pletcher has indicated that the grade I Ruffian at Saratoga may be the next start for Awesome Maria who was among the top 2-year-old fillies on the East coast last year.

Should a female win the Horse of the Year again this year after Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and Zenyatta last year, it will be the first time in the history of North American thoroughbred racing that females will have been named Horse of the Year in three consecutive years. Since the Horse of the Year was established in 1887, Twilight Tear and Busher in 1944-’45 respectively, were the only other females to win Horse of the Year in consecutive years, so the odds seem a little stacked against the ladies. There may not be another Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta in this group of older fillies and mares, but they do bring enough name recognition and industry credentials to be respected.

Perhaps todays male have some respect, but none of the colts, horses and geldings racing today have quite yet obtained the credentials of some of their female counterparts. This may not quite be Tea Leoni and David Duchonvy splitting up, but it is soon time for all to step up make some Horse of the Year waves.

Championship Path Can Skip Triple Crown Wins

With the less than star power talent of the thoroughbred colts and geldings class of 2011, it seems the times are ripe for perhaps a late season run by a non-winner of a Triple Crown race for year-end championship honors.

Three horses have been named the champion 3-year-old male in the last 30 years without winning the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1), Preakness (gr. 1) or Belmont Stakes (gr. 1). Tiznow was the most recent to take home the divisional eclipse award after going 0-for-triple crown in 2000 while Skip Away (photo left) in 1996 and Holy Bull two years earlier, also share the distinction.

Holy Bull was one of the early stars of the 1994 class chasing after the Kentucky Derby after going undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old including a victory in the grade 1 Futurity. The big grey colt started 1994 just as hot, winning the grade 2 Hutchinson Stakes at Gulfstream Park keeping his record unblemished. The son of Great Above then had his first bad race in the Fountain of Youth, tiring badly to finish sixth, more than 24 lengths behind winner Dehere. But trainer Warren Croll bounced right back with Holy Bull, and won both the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Blue Grass (gr. 2) Stakes as they headed to Kentucky with jockey Mike Smith as the favorite.

But Holy Bull broke slow in the Kentucky Derby and he was never able to completely recover, finishing a well beaten twelfth behind Go For Gin. Croll then decided to rest Holy Bull and skipped they both the Preakness and Belmont.

But Holy Bull came back stronger than ever, winning the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. 1), Dwyer Stakes (gr. 2), Haskell Invitational (gr. 1), Travers (gr. 1) and Woodward (gr. 1) to end the year with a five-race winning streak and eight wins in ten starts. He also accumulated more than $2 million in earnings that year and was also named Horse of the Year for 1994.

Tiznow and Skip Away both started their championship years much more inconspicuously than Holy Bull. It took Tiznow three races to break his maiden as a 3-year-old in Southern California and Skip Away bled and was distanced in his first race as sophomore at Gulfstream Park.

Also unlike Holy Bull, Skip Away started in all three Triple Crown events after finishing third in the Florida Derby and winning the Blue Grass that year. He would go winless in the three races, however, finishing 12th in the Derby and second to both Louis Quartorze in the Preakness and Editor’s Note in the Belmont.

There would be no rest for Skip Away though, as he went to win the Ohio Derby (gr. 2) three weeks later before winning the Haskell Invitational and finishing third in the Travers behind Will's Way and Louis Quartorze. The son of Skip Trial then finished the year winning the Woodbine Million (gr. 1) and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) over the great Cigar.

After breaking his maiden at Hollywood Park May 31, it was already post Kentucky Derby and Preakness for Tiznow in 2000. But he would win the grade 2 Affirmed in his next race before a string of seconds against grade 1 company hit him in the Swaps and Pacific Classic against older horses. But Tiznow was not deterred and kept on rolling while winning the Super Derby (gr. 1) at Louisiana Downs and the Goodwood Handicap (gr. 1) back in Southern California. Trainer Jay Robbins put the son of Cee's Tizzy back on a plane and he soon at Churchill Downs defeating Giant’s Causeway to win his first Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) (photo right). Like Holy Bull in 1994, Tiznow concluded his year with the Championship 3-Year-Old Male trophy but the golden Horse of the Year Ecplise as well.

There are candidates for such a run in 2011 with Mucho Macho Man among the possibilities. Celebrating his real birthday (official birthday for thoroughbreds is Jan. 1) just this month, he is likely to continue to grow into his large frame and may excel on the track at the same time. He is the only non-winner of any of the Triple Crown races to start in all three this year finishing third in the Derby, sixth in the Preakness and seventh in the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont second and third-place finishers Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed respectively should be late season contenders with their late running styles that may have compromised them in the Belmont. Santiva, eighth in the Belmont Stakes, may be another late bloomer who will benefit running in races at much more conventional distances than the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes.

There are some other possibilities for some earlier stars to return to racing after not making the Triple Crown. Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor and pre-Derby favorite Uncle Mo are considered likely to return. The Factor has been recovering from minor throat surgery and may start in the Aug. 27 King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga while Uncle Mo continues to recover from a liver ailment that forced to be withdrawn from the Derby at the last hour. There may be another Tiznow out there as well that remains virtually anonymous for the first six months before exploding to success in the later part of 2011. One-time Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) favorite Jaycito may not be so under the radar, but certainly has the potential for late season success.

There are certainly plenty of big races left on the racing calendar dispite with the less informed racing fan might think. The Jim Dandy (gr. 2) and Travers are the big races for 3-year-olds at Saratoga and the Haskell Invitational likewise at Monmouth Park. There will be plenty of opportunities for sophomores to take on their older brethren in the Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup in the East and the Hollywood Gold Cup, Pacific Classic and Goodwood on the West Coast to name but a few.

There is no doubt that Derby winner Animal Kingdom, Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont champion Ruler On Ice all have a jump on the field in pursuing the Eclipse Award over all other 3-year-old colts and geldings. But they will likely have to win more than their respective Triple Crown jewels to remain in the race for the championship.

Belmont Trends Say Stay Close Early

With the post positions now set and the morning line made for the 143rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I) Saturday, handicappers and prognosticators can now get underway. But before speed figures are studied and past performances perused, perhaps defining what it takes to win the Belmont Stakes is in order. After all, with the 1-1/2 mile distance, the sandy Belmont main track, the wide sweeping turns and it place as the third leg of the grueling Triple Crown to name a few of the races nuances, the Belmont Stakes is among the most unique in North America.

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) winner Animal Kingdom has been installed as the morning line favorite with 5-to-2 odds. Unfortunately, being either the Derby winner or the favorite have not been so prosperous in the concrete jungle where dreams are made of.

In the last 30 years, only Swale in 1984 and Thunder Gulch 11 years later, have won both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. During that same span, seven others who won the Run for the Roses finished second – sometimes heartbreaking seconds – in the Belmont. Smarty Jones (2004), Real Quiet (1999), Silver Charm (’97) and Sunday Silence all finished second in the Belmont to end their bid for the Triple Crown. Pleasant Colony (’81), Alysheba (’87), Charismatic (’99),War Emblem ('02)and Big Brown (’08) were less dramatic in losing their Triple Crowns in the Belmont.

Favorites have not fared so well in the last three decades either. Only six favorites have won the last 30 runnings (20%) of the Belmont Stakes with the last being Afleet Alex in 2005. Other favorites to don the white carnations in the Belmont winners’ circle were Point Given (’01), Thunder Gulch, A.P. Indy (’92), Risen Star (’88) and Swale.

Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro has been assigned the role as second favorite in the morning line at 4-to-1. If Nehro goes to the gate in the Belmont as the second most popular among punters, he will have a considerable advantage, at least from a historical perspective, over the favorite. In the last 30 years, ten Belmont winners (30%) have gone off as the second choice In the wagering.

Although many wrongly assume that the 12 furlong Belmont plays into an advantage for closers, trainer Steve Asmussen may want jockey Corey Nakatani to repeat his strategy in the Kentucky Derby with Nehro. Previously a closer from as far back as tenth-place in earlier races, Nehro was sixth after the first half-mile of the Derby, but was just more than 3 lengths from the lead.

That seems to be the cat bird seat in the Belmont Stakes, or near that margin anyway. Looking back 30 years again, only five horses have won the Belmont virtually from gate to wire and seven others have won the race from 6-1/2 lengths off the lead or more after the first four furlongs. The other 18 winners raced from between a half-length to 3-1/2 lengths off the lead early in their victorious romps in New York.

It would not be smart to totally discount a front runner like Shackleford, however. With little competition for the front-runner position, Shackleford is likely to try to join the likes of Da’ Tara (2008), Touch Gold, Swale and Conquistador Cielo in 1982 as those who won after leading early in the Belmont. Touch Gold throws a bit of a monkey wrench into this analysis after his quirky 1997 victory in which he lead after a half-mile, then dropped back to fourth, before making another run to catch Silver Charm at the wire.

And not all speedsters are completely defeated by the long Belmont distance. Nine other front runners have held on to finish second or third in the last 30 years. In fact, in the last three years, the pace-setter has finished in the top two with First Dude and Dunkirk both finishing second last year and 2009 respectively; and Da’ Tara winning.

Preakness winners have had their challenges in the Belmont with only five winning the second and third jewels of the Triple Crown in the last 30 years including Afleet Alex (’05), Point Given (’01), Tobasco Cat (’94), Hansel (’91) and Risen Star.

Master of Hounds returns to the United States from his base in trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Britain after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby and returning to Europe. In the last 30 years, he will be the 11th invader to start in the Belmont Stakes after traveling to New York from abroad with only Go And Go winning in 1990. Others of note were Le Voyageur, third in the 1989 Belmont behind Easy Goer and Sunday Silence; and My Memoirs, second to A.P. Indy in 1992.

The history of the Belmont is as interesting and unique as the race itself and over the last 30 years some trends seem to have developed. Speed horses, obviously, do not win the Belmont with any regularity, but they stay in the top three more often than some might think. Closers seem to have their challenges as well while staying close to the pace seems to be the winning formula.

The race has certainly measured up to its moniker as the Test of Champions as ten of the last 30 winner’s have been recognized as the divisional champion at year’s end and 59 in all. It is a large field that has entered to run in the 2011 Belmont with 12 slated to start in one of the oldest races in North America. Whether this Belmont is to be won by Derby champion Animal Kingdom, invader Master of Hounds, Preakness winner Shackleford or any other, after the race, somebody will be under the bright lights of New York and all its fame and history.

Belmont Iconic Regardless of Triple Crown

Since Shackleford dug in on his left lead in the final strides of the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) two weeks ago, holding off Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom, we’ve known there will be no Triple Crown winner in 2011. It will be 33 years to the day Friday, since Affirmed and the young jockey Steve Cauthen captured the attention of America by holding off the nemisis Alydar by head to win the Belmont Stakes after taking the Derby and Preakness in 1978.

Therefor, the crowd at Belmont Park Saturday will not be as big as the crowd if Animal Kingdom had been going for the illustrious Triple Crown; and the television ratings probably won’t be as strong. The mediocrity of this group of thoroughbreds has also been concluded by those analysts who calculate such equine performance evaluations and not widely disputed by many outside the Beyers and Ragozins of the world.

But you have to give this 2011 class of 3-year-olds some credit – on many different fronts quite frankly. They have been a sound bunch compared to some classes in front of them. Arkansas Derby (gr. I) winner Archarcharch has been retired due to an injury he suffered in the Kentucky Derby, but most of the other 2008 3-year-old colt models are either still racing or in an extended pit stop.

In fact, the last three stars to leave the Triple Crown trail are all expected to return to the races. Premier Pegasus, scratched just days before going to the gate as the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) favorite, is recovering from his surgery to repair a hair line fracture in his left front cannon bone and may return to the races this summer. San Vincente Stakes (gr. II) and Rebel Stakes (gr. II) winner The Factor is recovering from similar surgery and trainer Bob Baffert has said the August 27 Foxwood’s King’s Bishop Stakes(gr. I) at Saratoga is the target for the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) favorite. Uncle Mo, the champion 2-year-old male from last year and favorite to win the Derby for most of the winter, was scratched the day before the race not because of injury, but problems with his liver, (cholangeohepatitis for those scoring at home.) There is optimism that last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)winner will again race if efforts to treats his current condition succeed.

Having nineteen from a given class start in the Kentucky Derby is nothing special, but this group came right back and filled up the gate with 14 starting in the Preakness and there are 11 probable and three additional possible starters for the Belmont Stakes. That is partially due to a lack of an intimidating star, but as Jay Privman pointed out in his Daily Racing Form column, it may be the first time ever that the first seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby also start in the Belmont. As Privman also said, even if the top six finishers in the Derby start in the Belmont, it will be history. It has been since 1950 since the first five Derby finishers came back to run in the Belmont Stakes.

This group is not the most accomplished: there are only three 2011 stakes victories between Shackleford and Animal Kingdom and multiple graded stakes winners in the class since the first of the year can be counted on one hand. Long shot winners dominated the races leading up to the Triple Crown with the Florida Derby the only grade 1 race on dirt this year with a single digit win pay-off.

Even with no chance of a Triple Crown winner, both Animal Kingdom and Shackleford have an opportunity to join a fairly elite group that has won two legs of the Triple Crown and not the other. Only eleven horses have won the Kentucky Derby, lost in the Preakness, then won the Belmont. Coincidentally, eleven others have lost in the Derby, then come back to win the Preakness and Belmont. Seven others have won the Preakness and Belmont without running in the Kentucky Derby, but all of those were in 1922 and before when the Preakness was run before the Kentucky Derby.

The last to pull of the Derby-Belmont double was Thunder Gulch in 1995 with Swale (1984), Bold Forbes (’76), Chateaugay (’63), Needles (’56) and Zev (’23) among them as well. All were named champions in their respective years.

Among the eleven to win the Preakness and Belmont after losing the Derby, ten of those were named champions including Afleet Alex (2005), Point Given (’01), Hansel (1991), Risen Star (’88), Little Current (’74), Damascus (’67), Nashua (’55), Native Dancer (’53), Capot (’49) and Bimelech in 1940. Tabasco Cat in 1994 was the only member of that fraternity not to be named champion.

Certainly though, the Belmont Stakes is an iconic sporting event in North America regardless of a potential Triple Crown winner or not. Since the race was first run at Jerome Park in 1867, 59 of its winners have been named the champion 3-year-old colt or gelding of their respective years.

Three times, the Belmont Park crowd has exceeded 100,000 on-track fans with the largest crowd coming in 2004 when 120,139 came to watch Birdstone stop the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones. Large crowds of between 45,000 and 70,000 are typical on Belmont day.


The Belmont is also the oldest of the Triple Crown races predating the first Preakness (1873) by six years and the first Kentucky Derby (1875) by eight years. The Belmont Stakes is one of the oldest races in North America with the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland (1831), the Queen’s Plate (1864) at Woodbine in Canada and the Travers Stakes (1864) at Saratoga older. However, the Belmont, which will be run for the 143rd time in 2011, is third to the Phoenix (159th running in 2011) and Queens Plate (152nd running in 2011) in total runnings. The Travers has had gaps in its history and its 142nd running will be in 2011.

For those reasons, the Belmont Stakes has plenty of history and prestige and the winner will be deserving of the all that comes with winning the American classic.

Rivalry Wishes

Now that we don’t have a Triple Crown winner for the thirty-third consecutive year, what can we hope for from this much maligned crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds?

One, we can hope for a rivalry to develop between Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness (gr. I) winner Shackleford. It would be wonderful to see both come back in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park June 4. It would be better if the two hooked up at the top of the Belmont stretch and had a good old fashioned ding-dong battle to the wire.

To take our wish a little further, think how special it would be for the two to race together throughout the summer in say the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) at Monmouth in July, then on to the Travers Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga in August. While we’re in the wishing mood, let’s add to the list the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) and full circle back to Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships.

But there are many things that will likely prevent our wish list from happening, not the least of which is owners who may not share our hopes. Animal Kingdom is instead owned by Team Valor International while Michael Lauffer and Bill Cubberdge own Shackleford.

Team Valor International is a syndicate of some 20 owners involved in Animal Kingdom. Controlling that syndicate is the sometimes controversial Barry Irwin, the long time proprietor of Team Valor International. Regardless of how much the racing industry needs stars (i.e. Kentucky Derby winners) to stay in the sport, there will be the lure of further riches in breeding shed for Animal Kingdom. Although his Brazilian/German pedigree may keep him on the track longer than if he had more popular bloodlines, there will be a point of marginal financial return in which Irwin will have to strongly consider the colt’s retirement, regardless of his soundness and/or success on the track.

That decision would not be based solely on greed either. Regardless of Irwin’s perception or lack of popularity among racing fans, he must responsibly answer to the many Team Valor folks who own a piece of Animal Kingdom. Team Valor International has been one of the most accomplished thoroughbred ownership syndicates in the world for more than 20 years. Irwin didn’t build that success by making a bunch of decisions based on emotion and popularity.

Lauffeer and Cubbedge on the other hand, are only responsible to themselves in making decisions about Shackleford. Should they decide to keep the colt on the race track, only injury can derail that plan. But in many ways, the two partners face the same dilemma as Irwin, regardless if they have intentions to keep the colt racing or not.

While Shackleford has more domestic bloodlines, his sire Forestry has had limited success after a decade in the stallion shed. If he doesn’t prove himself as a sire early, Shackleford may have some lean years later in his stud career. Still, with his Preakness credentials and speed, there will be plenty of money to be made during his early years in the stud shed. Of course, like all stallions, if Shackleford is successful producing runners such as himself, those lean years will never come.

Another obvious road block to a rivalry is the racing schedule. The Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) is the New York prep race for the Travers and is run at the same time as the Haskell. One camp could go to the Jim Dandy while the other runs in the Haskell.

Less prestigious Summer and Fall races like the West Virginia Derby, Pennsylvania Derby, Indiana Derby and Louisiana’s Super Derby are sometimes options for Triple Crown race winners as well. Management teams at tracks that host these minor derbies often contrive bonuses at the last minute, specifically targeting Derby, Preakness and/or Belmont winners.

But if both colts stay healthy and the breeding industry can wait, then there is no reason why a rivalry could not be born. The East Coast/West Coast barrier that kept Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra apart during their racing careers does not exist between these two colts. Animal Kingdom trainer Graham Motion is stabled in Maryland during the summer while Dale Romans, trainer of Shackleford, is based at Churchill Downs giving both, easy access to the races in our dream schedule.


Now that we have come to the realization that there won’t be another Triple Crown winner in 2011, the best racing fans can hope for now from this crop of 3-year-olds is a rivalry. While neither Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom nor Preakness winner Shackleford have been confirmed for the Belmont Stakes, both camps have said the 1-1/2 mile Test of Champions is a possible next start for both.

Of course, like last year, a different horse could win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. That would not be optimal for rivalry wanting fans, but as long as Animal Kingdom and Shackleford are competitive, there is nothing wrong with a three-horse rivalry either. It’s just much more difficult keeping three horses on the same path for any extended period of time.

Schedules, injuries and the riches of the breeding shed can – and probably will – keep such a rivalry from developing. Or maybe the racing gods will bless the fans with such a wish. After all, they haven’t given us a Triple Crown winner since 1978. They kinda owe us a little something.

Look For A Macho Preakness

If we have learned one thing from the 3-year-old Thoroughbred class of 2011, is that they are full of surprises. They might not be that talented compared to other classes of years past either. That's two things.

Therefore, it is difficult to interpret the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) victory by Animal Kingdom two weeks ago. Is Animal Kingdom a horse that has suddenly blossomed into a world-class race horse and is to dominate this mediocre class? Or is he the beneficiary of this year's trend - a horse peaking in a given grade 1 race only to regress and disappoint in their next start.

Certainly Animal Kingdom can be the former. He can win the Preakness, the Belmont and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. I’m just going to have to bet against it.

The Kentucky Derby was by far his best career race and that obviously sets up for a negative bounce in the Preakness. Even if he drops off only slightly in his Preakness performance, odds are that somebody else in the 14-horse field will step up and perhaps have their career best day. That, after all, does seem to be the pattern for this group.

So where does that leave us in terms of finding a winner? The connections behind Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro have passed on the Preakness in favor of a rest and relaxation for their well-traveled star in place of firing their best shot at the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in three weeks. But third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man and fourth-place speedster Shackleford will be a Pimlico Saturday to make another run at the Derby champion. Dialed In, eighth in the Derby as the favorite; and Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude (the 16th-place finisher in Kentucky are also making another run Animal Kingdom.

There weren’t many excuses for those who chased Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby. It was one of the cleanest run Kentucky Derbies in quite some time. But my top choice in the Preakness may have had a more subtle reason for not being at his best on the first Saturday in May.

Mucho Macho Man found himself in perfect stalking position in the early part of the Kentucky Derby as jockey Rajiv Maraj had him placed four to five lengths behind frontrunner Shackleford down the backside. The son of Macho Uno made what looked like a potentially winning move around the far turn, but was five wide and may have covered too much extra ground by the time he had a clear shot at the finish line. Instead of accelerating and passing Shackleford at the top of the stretch, he seemed to not have quite enough to close the victory. The six weeks between his previous start in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Kentucky may have had something to do with that as well.

My second pick in the Preakness did not run in the Kentucky Derby, but that was not because of any decision by his owner or trainer. The connections behind Sway Away had every intention of running in the Run for the Roses but fell just short on eligibility. The top 20 Derby entrants in terms of earnings in graded stakes races get a slot in the Churchill Downs starting gate. Sway Away was ranked 21st among those wanting to run in Kentucky. But he qualified for the Preakness and may be a good bet with his 15-1 morning line odds.

Sway Away first caught my attention in February when he was a fast closing second behind the speedy The Factor in the seven furlong San Vincente Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita. The Factor, a speedster, had many advantages that day, not the least of which was the short distance. It seemed that Sway Away would benefit from the extra distance of races ahead on the Triple Crown trail.

The Jeff Bonde trained Sway Away would have that chance in his next start, 1-1/16th mile Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park. But Sway Away looked to have no interest in racing that day as he was fractious at the gate and just as uneasy in the early part of the race. He he finished sixth, nearly 10 lengths behind The Factor.

In his next race, new jockey Pat Valenzuela kept him much closer to the leaders in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) and it momentarily looked like the correct strategy. Sway Away took the lead at the top of the stretch would eventually finish fourth behind Archarcharch, Nehro and Dance City.

Two important things have happened since Arkansas Derby that makes Sway Away attractive in the Preakness. First, the Arkansas Derby has developed into perhaps the most significant race leading up to the Kentucky Derby making it a "key race" in handicapping parlance. Second-place finisher Nehro was also second in the Derby and fifth-place finisher Alternation just won the grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, the major local prep for the grade 1 Belmont Stakes.

A rider change from the aggressive Pat Valenzuela in the Arkansas Derby to the more patient Garret Gomez in the Preakness should also benefit Sway Away in the Preakness. Laying further back in Baltimore should allow Sway Away to use his energy much more efficiently and perhaps have much more in the tank down the stretch and improve to an in-the-money performance if not better.

Animal Kingdom should be credited with a few accomplishments in the Kentucky Derby that make him a legitimate Triple Crown threat. He came from off the pace and reeled in the front runners in a race run at tepid pace and advantageous to those who lead early in the classic contest. But Animal Kingdom still had enough acceleration to overcome the leaders and that is a valuable commodity to any race horse at this level. A duplication of that effort will probably not be defeated at Pimlico. He seems to be improving with every race – regardless of the surface having won on artificial and dirt and finishing second on turf in his last three races – and don’t underestimate his little win over 18 rivals on the first Saturday in May. Right now Animal Kingdom looks the best. But that has been the case for many this year that have disappointed in their next race.

Dialed In has taken the role of Preakness favorite away from Animal Kingdom in the early wagering despite his eighth-place finish in Kentucky. Trainer Nick Zito suffered the frustration of watching the slowest Kentucky Derby pace since 1947 as his come-from-behind Dialed In languished even further back than normal during the first six furlongs in the Derby. The Florida Derby winning Dialed In still managed to pass eleven horses before the finish line, but was unable to overcome the adversity of trying to catch the front runners who had managed to slow the early running to nearly a crawl. Dialed In should benefit from a faster pace in the Preakness but will again have plenty of horses to pass from his customary last place early running style.

The other long shot that may have some potential to make an impact is Mr. Commons. After finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby behind Midnight Interlude, the son of Artie Schiller was not considered for the Kentucky Derby because of a lack of earnings in graded stake races. Mr. Commons has plenty of tactical speed to allow jockey Victor Espinoza to lay close if necessary or just off the pace. Mr. Commons breaks from the far outside 14 post position, but will have plenty of time and room before the first turn forces him into an uncomfortable running position. Ultra-conservative trainer John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame does not send horses across the country from his base at Hollywood Park unless he thinks he has a horse that can fire a major bullet.

The Brock Talk’s Preakness Picks
1- #9 Mucho Macho Man
2- #7 Sway Away
3- #11 Animal Kingdom
Longshot: #14 Mr. Commons.

Preakness Pulling In Plenty Of Competition For Derby Winner Animal Kingdom

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands winner Animal Kingdom has arrived at trainer Graham Motion’s base at Fair Hill Training Center in Elkton, Maryland. There he will prepare for the Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) to be run at Pimlico Race Course in nearby Baltimore, May 21. Animal Kingdom jogged one mile Tuesday morning and Motion said he will likely jog for a few days before beginning a daily gallop routine leading up to the second leg of the Triple Crown. Motion has not said whether he plans to work Animal Kingdom before the Preakness.

As expected when a 20-1 shot wins the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness looks like it will feature a full gate of challengers. According to the Pimlico media department, the connections behind 20 horses are hoping to have one of the 14 available slots in the Preakness starting gate including Animal Kingdom and six others from the Kentucky Derby. There are also 12 newcomers to the Triple Crown trail whose connections have said they are planning to take on Animal Kingdom in the 1-3/16 mile Preakness – 110 yards shorter than the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby starters planning on wheeling back into the Preakness include Animal Kingdom (1st), Nehro (2nd), Mucho Macho Man (3rd), Shackleford (4th), Santiva (6th) Dialed In (8th), and Midnight Interlude (16th).

While Dialed In was disappointing as the Kentucky Derby favorite, the late closing son of Mineshaft was handicapped by the incredibly slow pace in the Kentucky Derby as trainer Nick Zito explained Monday. “They ran the slowest first three-quarters in the Derby since 1947 and my horse ran the second fastest (final) half-mile (in :47.02),” Zito said. “Only Secretariat ran a faster final half (:46 2/5). He (Dialed In) was not a short horse. We are going to keep doing what we’ve been doing with him when he was in Florida.”

Credit jockey Julio Castanon for slowing down the Kentucky Derby pace with the speedy Shackleford and putting the Florida Derby runner-up in position to win at the top of the stretch. Before 1910, half-mile splits in :49-plus were commonplace. But in the 100 years since 1910, only Jet Pilot (1947), Clyde Van Dussen (29), Misstep in the 1928 Derby won by Reigh Count, Viva America in the 1918 Exterminator Derby and Worth in 1912 have been slower than Shackleford. Only six others ran the first half-mile in the Derby in :48s with Rockhill Native being the last. In the 1980 Derby won by Genuine Risk, he lead the field after a half-mile in :48 flat.

Dialed In will also be trying for the biggest payday in North American racing history with his 5.5 bonus made possible by winning the Florida Derby. Should he also win the Preakness, an additional $5 million will be paid to owner Robert LaPenta and $500,000 to Zito. With the $600,000 winner’s share of the Preakness, it would be a $6.1 million pay-day eclipsing the $5.8 million earned by Smarty Jones for winning the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Among the Triple Crown rookies expected in the Preakness are Astrology, Dance City, Mr. Commons, Flashpoint, Sway Away and the locally based Norm Asbjornson.

Trained by Steve Asmussen Astrology was on the road to the Kentucky Derby before an illness slowed his winter progress. Second in both the Sunland Derby (gr. 3) in March and Jerome Handicap (gr. 2) in late April, Astrology worked six furlongs in 1:12.40 at Churchill Downs Monday morning preparing for the Preakness. Two days earlier, Shackleford ran the first six furlongs in the Kentucky Derby exactly one second slower than Astrology's work.


Dance City is a lightly raced Todd Pletcher trainee who last finished third behind Archarcharch and Nehro in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) in early April. The John Shirreffs-trained Mr. Commons also finished third in his last race, the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby behind winner Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top in second. Sway Away was a late charging second behind The Factor in the San Vincente Stakes in Februay before finishing fourth in the Arkansas Derby in his last race.

Norman Asbjornson is based at Pimlico with trainer Chris Grove, has at least more credentials than most Maryland-based Preakness runners. In March, the son of 1998 Preakness winner Real Quiet finished second to Stay Thirsty in the Gotham Stakes (gr. 2), and was fourth, beaten only 4-1/2 lengths by Toby’s Corner in the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) in April.

At one time trainer Bob Baffert had indicated that Rebel Stakes winner The Factor was possible for the Preakness but has now said that the Woody Stephens at Belmont Park will be his next race. In another Preakness note, jockey Robbie Albarado, who was taken off Animal Kingdom the day before the Kentucky Derby because the connections deemed his injuries to serious to ride, has picked up the Preakness mount on King Congie.

There have been 21 horses win both the Derby and the Preakness. Big Brown (2008), Smarty Jones (’04) and Funny Cide (’03) are the most recent. A victory by Animal Kingdom and he’s number 22. More important, a Preakness victory also means he will then have a chance at becoming the 12th Triple Crown winner. Even though Animal Kingdom has the Kentucky Derby victory on his resume, it appears he’s not scarring anybody out of the Preakness. Just more than ten days away from the second leg of the Triple Crown and 19 horses are considering the race. Dialed In has 6.1 million incentives while others have plenty with just the $600,000 and history.

Preakness Stakes, Thoughts, Comments and Questions

Any questions as to where the racing gremlins may have moved when they vacated the Baffert barn? I don't know if they moved in the family and furniture, but they were sure aboard the D. Wayne Lukas trainees for the first 110 yards of the Preakness. Dublin, starting from the outside 12 post in the Preakness, broke so far to the right that jockey Garrett Gomez spent the first 50 yards of the race keeping Dublin, first out of the Pimlico gift shop and second, from running over the track outrider stationed on the outside of the track. Northern Giant stumbled at the start and also broke to the right from the four hole and quickly took a hard bump from Yuwanna Twist to his outside. By the time jockey Terry Thompson had Northern Giant back on stride, Pleasant Prince came in front of him from the two-hole and he was quickly bumped again by Yuwanna Twist and shuffled back before the field had traveld a 1/16th of a mile out of the gate... The longest drought in Triple Crown history now continues at 32 years - seven years longer than the previous record of 25 years between Triple Crown winners Citation (1948) and Secretariat (1973)... With trainers Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher saying neither Lookin at Lucky nor Super Saver are headed for the Belmont, it will be the first time since 2006 the Belmont Stakes will not feature a Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner, the year Barbaro won the Derby and Bernardini won the Preakness. Jazil (right) won the 2006 Belmont after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby and skipping the Preakness... Make Music for Me was fourth in the Derby this year and skipped the Preakness if you want an insignificant fun fact... My thoughts at the top of the Preakness stretch: "Oh darn Super Saver is done. Wow it looks like Lookin at Lucky might win it! What the hell is First Dude still doing there?"... Don't even ask me who I like in the Belmont Stakes for a while.

Zenyatta In Dodger Blue
A prominent billboard advertising the Los Angeles Dodgers located near Hollywood Park features the undefeated mare Zenyatta. The billboard is part of an advertising campaign of the major league team featuring several famous Los Angelenos and is located on the corner of Hawthorne Blvd. and 106th street... Trainer John Shirreffs was overheard on TVG this weekend to say that Zenyatta is still being pointed toward the grade 1 Vanity Stakes at Hollywood Park. The 1-1/8 Vanity will feature a $250,000 purse for fillies and mares Sunday, June 13.

"Doc" Allred Resigns At Los Alamitos
Dr. Edward Allred, a mainstay in the Quarter Horse racing industry and widely considered to be instrumental in the saving Los Alamitos in the early 1990s, has resigned as the track's President and Chairman of the Board. Allred was quoted in Bloodhorse.com as saying "This decision is not based on health considerations, as I am doing well,” Allred said. “I will continue to have a very active role on the board of directors. It is on the execution of the day-to-day details and matters that I will not be involved." A statement his succession in power seems to vindicate. Longtime associate Cathy Monji has been appointed by Allred to be the new track President and serve on the board of directors while Rick English will take over as Board Chairman.

Allred still breeds and raises top-notch Quarter Horses at his Rolling A Ranch in Atascadero, California. Allred has won AQHA’s Champion Breeder title nine times and the Champion Owner award six times. In the 1990s, he led all owners in number of victories eight times, and has topped all breeders in wins from 1992 through 2004. In 2004, horses bred by Allred won 111 races and 14 stakes races while earning $1,575,685.

Preakness Betting Strategy: Bet The Obvious

The odds of any horse having significant trouble in four consecutive races have got be something famous mathematician Steven Hawking would calculate. In other words, they have to be very high. And that's what I'm banking on by staying on the Lookin at Lucky band wagon and making him my top pick in the 135th running of the Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) Saturday at Pimlico Race Course. How much of a detrimental effect all of that bumping has had on Lookin at Lucky, plus the rider change from future Hall of Famer Garrett Gomez to the 20-year-old Martin Garcia, are all legitimate questions, but I'm still all aboard the Baffert express for at least one more race.

Super Saver appeared to fall in line with what is widely considered to be a sub-par 3-year-old crop of 2010 until his victory in the biggest dance of all the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1). Yes, he had the benefit of one of the few to have a good trip around the Churchill Downs oval in the Derby, but I'm going to have to trust trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Calvin Borel in their profession that Super Saver has greatly improved since his previous losses in the Tampa Bay (gr. 3) and Arkansas (gr. 1) Derbies. Super Saver's 104 Beyer Speed figure in the Derby also lends credibility to their statements.

Simplistic as it may seem, I see this as two-horse race and I'll have a good old fashioned $10 7-8 exacta box in the Preakness.

I'm going to run a few $1 trifectas to back up my exacta with a 7-All-8 and a 8-All-7 for $20 and hope I get a longshot to get up and split my exacta should that happen.

It's not the most adventurous betting strategy in the world, and quite frankly one in which I've left my favorite adverse comfort zone. But sometimes one just has to bet what looks to be the obvious.

Let There Be Luck

He may have developed into the Rodney Dangerfield of the race track, but Lookin at Lucky will garner my support for the Preakness. In fact, with so little pace expected in the 135th Preakness Stakes Saturday, I will not be surprised to see Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky together on the lead from perhaps as far back as the six furlong pole coming out of the clubhouse turn.

I hesitate to criticize an entire crop of 3-year-olds less than five months into the year, but I've now said for weeks it appears the cream of the crop are a notch or even two above the rest. In the Preakness, that cream is made up of Lookin at Lucky and Super Saver. Less than half the field are graded stakes winners and five Preakness contestants are in search of their second career victory.


1 – Aikenite: He will need continued improvement off of his second place finish in the Derby Trial to be a contender and is one of five Preakness horses also eligible for a non-winners of two condition. His last work at Churchill also does nothing to tell me he’s the one to beat the top two.

2 – Schoolyard Dreams: He defeated Super Saver in the Tampa Bay Derby in a race in which the photo finish gods deserted him as well. But he flopped in his next start by running fourth in the Wood Memorial behind Eskendereya, Jackson Bend and Awesome Act minus a shoe.

3 – Pleasant Prince: He enters the Preakness off of an unimpressive third in the Derby Trial, beaten more than nine lengths with no excuses. I’ll take all five battle-tested Derby runners over him.

4 – Northern Giant: Two things I like about this horse are sire Giant’s Causeway and five-time Preakness winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Having jockey Terry Thompson aboard after being taken off Dublin tells me even Lukas has this one ranked a notch lower after being beaten nearly 13 lengths by his stable mate in the Arkansas Derby.

5 – Yawanna Twist: Second to American Lion in an Illinois Derby that saw very little passing of any kind. I look for him to look prominent among the stalkers early in the race, but I have serious doubts he has the talent to pass Super Saver or Lookin at Lucky at any point inside the final half-mile.

6 – Jackson Bend: I didn’t see many excuses for him in the Derby and I’m not convinced he’s on par with Lucky and Saver. Although underestimating trainer Nick Zito is dangerous I’m not hopping on a bandwagon I was never on.

7 – Lookin at Lucky: If he gets his first clean trip in four races, I have to think he’s the winner. I look for him to be much more engaged and may in fact be on the lead with Super Saver. You can bet jockey Martin Garcia will be doing everything possible to keep a clear path in front of him and the easiest way to do that is to keep most of the field behind them.

8 – Super Saver: What’s not to like about his Kentucky Derby win, especially with the late charging Derby runner-up Ice Box passing on the Preakness. With no speedsters in the Preakness Borel may find himself on the lead which is also the easiest way to get to that rail Borel covets so much. I see Lookin at Lucky as the only horse here with the talent to muster a late challenge against a horse that has no indication of bouncing off the big Derby win.

9 – Caracortado: Has been relieved of a foot abscess since a fourth in the Santa Anita Derby in which he also got caught up in Lookin at Lucky’s trouble. His victory in the Robert Lewis Stakes in February make him one of only five graded stakes winners in what appears to be a relatively shallow Preakness field. He looks to be the best among the rest of this group behind the top two.

10 – Paddy O’Prado: Had a terrible trouble around and coming out of the far turn in the Derby when Sidney’s Candy reverse lights didn’t come on. Jockey Kent Desormeaux once ruled over the Maryland racing in his youth and has been among the hottest riders in the country over the last year which will be a plus for Paddy. But having never raced over a fast dirt surface, one has to wonder if he can repeat the Blue Grass and Derby performance at Pimlico.

11 - First Dude: Large and lumbering, First Dude reminds me of Rock Hard Ten. Who reminded me of countless 7-foot plus basketball players. When this dude figures it out, it’s over for the rest of them. I look at the start of the Blue Grass (gr. 1) and I see First Dude getting bumped and pinched at the start then came back to persevere traffic and run a very notable third. But until First Dude stops being a bumpee and becomes a bouncer he’ll remain closer to Shawn Bradley than Charles Barkley.

12 – Dublin: Matt Carothers summed up this horse great on TVG’s Morning Line Thursday by saying this horse is not good enough to win, but you can guarantee he’ll have the best ride from Lookin’ At Lucky exile Garrett Gomez. I have expected bigger things from this colt this year so I’m officially off of the Dublin bandwagon.

Selections: 7-8-9

Preakness Field Taking Shape as Face of Triple Crown Changes

The day before entries are taken for the grade 1 Preakness Stakes, the field has been whittled down to 13 probable starters.

The field for the 1-3/16 mile Preakness (1/16 of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby) appears to have attracted five returnees from the Run for the Roses including the winner Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado (3rd), Lookin at Lucky (5th), Dublin (7th) and Jackson Bend (12th). The Preakness is also expected to feature the top three finishers from the Derby Trial (gr. 3) run at Churchill Downs April 24 including Hurricane Ike (1st), Aikenite (2nd) and third-place finisher Pleasant Prince.

Among the other Triple Crown invaders are Schoolyard Dreams, fourth in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1); Caracortado, fourth in the Santa Anita Derby; Northern Giant, ninth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1), First Dude, third in the grade 1 Blue Grass and Yawanna Twist, second in the Illionois Derby.

Perhaps the most significant development among the Derby horses is the jockey change for Lookin at Lucky. Following a series of unlucky mishaps going back to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) in November, trainer Bob Baffert is expected to name Martin Garcia to ride Lookin at Lucky after releiving jockey Garrett Gomez of the riding assignment aboard the Kentucky Derby morning line favorite.

That allowed Gomez to pursue other opportunities in the Preakness and trainer D. Wayne Lukas quickly made the move to replace jockey Terry Thompson with Gomez on Dublin.

The last Kentucky Derby starter to survive a rider change and win the Preakness was Louis Quatorze in 1996. After finishing 16th in the Kentucky Derby with Chris Antley aboard, trainer Nick Zito made the change to Pat Day and won the Preakness.

That year Pat Day was also the last rider to win the Preakness in consecutive years having won on Timber Country the year before. This year, Calvin Borel will try to match that feat after winning the Preakness last year on Rachel Alexandra.

Borel is still far from matching Day's five Preakness wins which is second only to Eddie Arcaro's six Preakness wins.

It also happened just four years earlier when trainer Thomas Bohannan replaced Craig Perrett on Pine Bluff after finishing fifth in the Derby. Two weeks later, Pine Bluff came back to win the Preakness with Chris McCarron aboard.

Other than the 20 horses in the last 50 years to win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Derby third-place finishers have faired the best among the others with eight Preakness wins.

Derby show horses to win the Preakness include Curlin in 2007, Afleet Alex ('05), Timber Country ('95), Risen Star ('88), Elocusionist ('76), Damascus ('67), Tom Rolphe ('65) and Candy Spots in 1963. Paddy O'Prado was third in this year's Kentucky Derby.

The 2010 Preakness will have a very different look from the Derby this year in terms of pace as well. While the Kentucky Derby was loaded with speedsters such as Conveyance, Sidney's Candy and Discreetly Mine to name a few, the Preakness is void of any prominent front runner. In fact, Super Saver is the only contender to have a wire-to-wire victory on his resume having won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November gate-to-finish as well as his maiden win at Belmont at a mile in September.

In fact, only three Preakness contenders have won this year after having the lead as early as the half-mile pole. Hurricane Ike won the Derby Trial after leading going into the final turn; Northern Giant broke his maiden by 11 lengths in February at Oaklawn Park after taking the lead down the backstretch; and First Dude also broke his maiden after leading with a 1/2 mile to go at Gulfstream Park in January.

It is also assumed that Baffert is going to Garcia on Lookin at Lucky in an effort to see him more engaged early. While it is doubtful Garcia will race Lookin at Lucky to the front as he did on Conveyance in the Derby, there are questions as to just how fast the young rider will want to go in the Preakness.

The Unluckiest of Luckys.
BP Oil executives have contacted Lookin at Lucky today asking what he knows about things getting shut off... Federal investigators are now saying that we're fortunate the Times Square bomber got his fertilizer from Lookin at Lucky... Lookin at Lucky has been getting plenty of fan mail lately. Breeding farms are writing to say their mares have headaches... Pedigree Humor: On Mother's Day, Private Feeling appealed to the Jockey Club for additional DNA testing... Lookin at Lucky's flight to Baltimore was delayed when the pilot learned the biggest bomb in racing was on board... When Baffert fired jockey Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky asked for a second opinion. Baffert said, "Alright. You're also slow."

Trophy Trivia
Created by Tiffany and Company in 1860 as a trophy for the now defunct Woodlawn Racing Association, the Woodlawn Vase is presented each year to the owner of the Preakness owner. An assessment in 1983 of $1 million easily makes its silver design the most valuable trophy in American sports. Until 1953, winners were awarded possession of the vase until the following Preakness. That all changed when A. G. Vanderbilt’s Native Dancer won it but his wife did not want to take on the immense responsibility of the vase’s safekeeping. Now the winning owner is awarded a $30,000 sterling replica on a permanent basis while the perpetual is on display at The Baltimore Museum of Art and brought to Pimlico under guard for the annual running of the Preakness.

Baffert Made The Right Decision With Jockey Gomez

More often than not, I'm the last in line to criticize jockeys. Their split-second decisions under potentially deadly conditions simply fall into the "How do they do that?" chapter in my book. Jockey feelings aside, I am just as cautious in my support of most rider changes on good horses. Circumstances are sometimes the doom of a relationship between jockey and a given horse. And to make a rider change in the pressure cooking environment during the five weeks of the Triple Crown, to me, sounds like a risky venture at best and an all out panic or childish blame by the owner and/or trainer at worst.

But in the case of trainer Bob Baffert dimplomaticlly telling Lookin at Lucky's jockey Garrett Gomez that he should perhaps "find another mount in the Preakness", the move seems justified. Kindly saying he just wanted to change the luck of the horse and that there was nothing Gomez could have done from the one hole in Derby, Baffert and owner Karl Watson, Paul Weitman and Mike Pegram must have seen the same thing many of us saw during the the first 100 yards of the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands in which Lookin at Lucky began losing any chance to win.

Just out of the gate, Lookin at Lucky broke well along the rail. As expected Ice Box dropped back from the two hole while Noble's Promise broke from the three and Calvin Borel and Super Saver broke from the four. Within a few strides, Borel began steering Super Saver toward the rail, crowding Noble's Promise, who crowded Lookin at Lucky who was forced to check.

With Noble's Promise and Super Saver in front of him, Gomez had no place go with Lookin at Lucky as the field began to converge toward the inside rail as the field passed by the twin spires for the first time. By the time Stately Victor, a closer who broke from the six post, again slammed Lookin at Lucky into the rail, again forcing him further back still, the Kentucky Derby was all but over for the Lucky camp.

Before the Kentucky Derby Baffert acknowledged the challenge Gomez would have from the inside post, saying he was going to have to ride a super race early to overcome the impending traffic. But while Calvin Borel was able to clear the trouble from just three gates further out - and even strategically causing the first problems for Looking at Lucky with his quick dash for the rail - Gomez was not able to gun Lookin at Lucky out of trouble and has now paid the price for it.

Saturday Ron Anderson, the agent for Gomez, confirmed that they would not ride Lookin at Lucky in the Preakness and would instead by aboard Dublin for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Baffert is reportedly considering jockey Martin Garcia to take over the riding assignment aboard Lookin at Lucky. Garcia, who rides regularly for Baffert and just won the Lone Star Derby (gr. 3) for Baffert Saturday, also rode Conveyance to a 15th-place finish in the Derby for the Baffert team.

Garcia is said to be more aggressive than Gomez as exhibited in the Derby, and is very good at getting horses to engage early on in a race.

Derby Winner Puts In Final Work At Churchill
Going to the track for his only serious work before the Preakness Stakes Saturday, Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver breezed three furlongs at Churchill Downs in :36.60 with Calvin Borel aboard. After the work, Borel allowed Super Saver to gallop around the turn and was clocked in a well-paced 1:02 for five-eighths of a mile.

Trainer Todd Pletcher was very pleased with the effort by Borel and Super Saver telling Daily Racing Form that he wanted, "an easy three-eighths and gallop out an easy half. It's amazing how effortless the horse was in doing it."

I assume the work fits well into Borel's plans to win the Triple Crown with Super Saver.

Other Preakness contenders to work Monday included the D.Wayne Lukas pair of Dublin and Northern Giant. Dublin, with jockey Garrett Gomez aboard, worked a half-mile in 48.40 while Northern Giant went three-eighths of a mile in 36.40. Derby Trial (gr. 3) winner Hurricane Ike took jockey Robby Alabarado seven furlongs in 1:25.80 and Yawanna Twist went five furlongs in 1:01.60.

Rachel Alexandra Also Works
Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Horse of Year who has finished a close second in her only two starts this year, also made the Monday work tab at Churchill Downs. In her first work since her defeat in the Le Troienne Stakes (gr. 2) April 30 at Churchill, Rachel Alexandra went an easy half-mile in :52 seconds. Trainer Steve Asmussen said no decision has been made as to her next start.

Successful Preakness Invaders Are Not Historically Prevalent

Horse racing being the fickle game that it is, makes it difficult to predict entries into a race next week, but with that being said, it looks like the Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) will feature a full 14-horse gate when they go to the post May 15. It also looks like the Preakness will be evenly represented by seven horses that started in the Kentucky Derby and by seven horses that are new to the Triple Crown. But that could change quickly.

With much being written and said over the years about the grueling North American Triple Crown and the scarcity of those that have taken all three races (there have been only 11 since 1919), it might appear to some that these Preakness invaders may have an advantage. The thinking goes, and logically so I might add, that Kentucky Derby horses are coming out of perhaps the most taxing race of their careers carrying more weight further and against more horses than they will ever again. And they must bounce back into the Preakness with only two weeks rest - or one or two weeks less than most trainers would like.

That of course contributes to the fact that 13 of the 20 Kentucky Derby starters this year are not being pointed toward the Preakness. But once a Derby runner makes it into the Preakness starting gate, they have a much better chance of winning than their invading rivals from strictly a historical perspective.

Looking at the last 50 Preakness Stakes going back to 1959, only eight Preakness winners did not start in the Kentucky Derby. The most recent being eventual Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra (photo right), who last year became the first filly since Nellie Morse in 1924 to win the Preakness and the first to ever do so after a victory in the Kentucky Oaks.

Prior to that, after an easy win in the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct in late April, Bernardini won the 2006 Preakness tragically marred by the injury to Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro.

Six years earlier Red Bullet avenged his loss in the 2000 Wood Memorial to Fusaichi Pegasus, by passing on the Derby and coming back to win the Preakness over his Kentucky Derby winning nemesis.

One has to go back 17 years to find another Preakness winner who did not start in the Derby. Both the 1982 and 1983 Preakness winners made their previous start in a race other than the Kentucky Derby. Deputed Testamony won the 1983 Preakness after taking the Federico Tesio Stakes at Pimlico. The year before, Aloma's Ruler (photo left), with jockey "Cowboy" Jack Kanel won the previous Preakness, after having won the Withers Stakes.

In one of the most famous and controversial Preakness Stakes, D. Wayne Lukas brought Codex to Baltimore in 1980 to take on the Kentucky Derby winning filly Genuine Risk. In February Lukas had not included Codex among his five Kentucky Derby nominees. So after their win in the Santa Anita Derby, they made their next stop in Baltimore for the Preakness. (Ironically, it was Lukas' son Jeff who had nominated Codex to the Preakness saying later he would pay the $100 fee because "My dad doesn't know how good Codex is.")

Nearing the top of the Pimlico stretch, Codex and Angel Cordero Jr. where in front but Genuine Risk and Jacinto Vasquez were bearing down on the outside. Just as it seemed the filly was about to pass, Cordero appeared to steer Codex wide out of the turn, taking Geneuine Risk and Vasquez with them and stopping the momentum of the charging filly.

Former jockey Eddie Arcaro, working as a analysist for the ABC telecast, told 30 million viewers that if he were a steward, he would disqualify Codex. Moments later the track stewards disallowed the claim of foul and kept Codex the winner. The Pimlico switchboard lit up within seconds and angry calls persisted at the track for weeks.

Although nominated for the Triple Crown, trainer Del Carroll chose not to run Bee Bee Bee in the 1972 Kentucky Derby. However, after winning the Survivor Stakes at Pimlico, he entered Bee Bee Bee in the Preakness only to see him go gate-to-wire at 19-1 odds over Riva Ridge on a sloppy track.

In another famous Preakness, Greek Money freshened at Pimlico while Ridan won the 1962 Kentucky Derby. The two locked strides lengths ahead of the field down the stretch of the Preakness and racing fans were given not only an exciting finish, but an unusual post race as well.

Jockey Manuel Ycaza on the second-place Ridan, claimed foul on jockey John Rotz aboard the winning Greek Money. Perhaps dismissing the new technology of film patrol in his early action and later claim, it was discovered by the eye in the sky that the hot tempered Ycaza had in fact sent an elbow directly to the chin of Rotz just before the wire. Rotz and Greek Money kept the victory and Ycaza got a 10-day suspension.

Preakness Rides To Remember

Another rail-hugging victory by jockey Calvin Borel aboard Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands has riding accolades again being directed at the popular Cajun rider and deservedly so. But with the Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) less than two weeks away and a full field of 14 possible for the second leg of the Triple Crown, the pressure will again be on Borel to flash his navigational brilliance in Baltimore when he steps aboard Super Saver May 15.

Super Saver is now the co-leader along with Sidney' Candy in the TBA 3-Year-Old Standings sponsored by OCD Pellets.

Not that the pressure seems to bother Borel. It was he, by the way, that declared a Triple Crown for Super Saver on national television during the winner's circle celebration following the Derby. It was also Borel a year ago, who stepped off Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird to ride the filly Rachel Alexandra in the Preakness in a move defiant of pressure. But as they've been saying in Louisiana for years, "dat pressuh doan bodder "Boo" (aka Calvin Borel) and he and Rachel Alexandra rolled to a Preakness win.

A well planned, mistake free and well executed ride in the Preakness may be good enough for another Preakness win for Borel - as long as Super Saver is good enough and ol' Mr. Bad Racing Luck stays away. But should he be called upon for another "Bo-Rail" riding feat for the win, and pulls it off, it seemed appropriate to recall perhaps three of the greatest rides of Preakness past - just in case we have to compare.

Ron Turcotte - Secretariat, 1973
In 1973 Secretariat had just won the Kentucky Derby in patient come-from-off-the-pace fashion, set a track record in the processand speculation began of a possible Triple Crown. The pressure was beginning to mount for jockey Ron Turcotte in the Preakness.

The pressure continued for Turcotte shortly after the break of the Preakness when it appeared that Secretariat was having some trouble finding his stride or getting a hold of the track. But Turcotte settled "Big Red" into a seemingly comfortable position along the rail in last as they passed the grandstand for the first time.

Suddenly (and I mean in an instant), Secretariat found his stride and that's where Turcotte's piloting skills and quick thinking came into play. Heading into the Clubhouse turn, few riders would swing out from the rail and suddenly go three-wide around the turn to pass slower horses. Most riders would have been content to keep their mount on the rail and easily gallop behind the team of preceding runners and wait for a hole to open or pass to the outside down the straight backstretch.

But Turcotte steered Secretariat just to the right and outside of the horses in front of him just before the left handed turn, only to feel Secretariat begin to pass horses and then inhale them as he began running faster and faster with more than three-quarters of a mile still left to run. Other riders might panic and fight the apparent runaway Secretariat. That's when Turcotte made perhaps his second winning decision. "I wanted to slow him down," Turcotte would say later, "but he wanted to go on. So I figured... ....if he wants to go on, I'm not going to argue with him. He's pretty big."

Secretariat never slowed a step and with Turcotte now just a passenger, he hit the wire three lengths in front of Sham in track record time according to the Daily Racing Form chart.

The official time on the infield tote board lit up to 1:55.0, a full second slower than Cananero II's 1:54.0 in the Preakness two years earlier. But the track clocker had caught Secretariat in 1:54-2/5 and two Daily Racing Form clockers had timed him in an identical 1:53-2/5. The official time was listed at 1:54-2/5 everywhere but Daily Racing Form, which also published their time in the official chart.



Eddie Delahoussaye - Risen Star, 1988
In 1988 D.Wayne Lukas had just won his first Kentucky Derby with the front running filly Winning Colors with jockey Gary Stevens aboard.

Woody Stephens, the Hall of Fame trainer of fast-closing Derby runner-up Forty Niner, rued the fact that Winning Colors had been conceded an uncontested lead from the start in the Derby and held it for a neck victory.

Stephens vowed things would be different in the Preakness – that Forty Niner would strongly contest or even take the lead. “I may be last, but she'll be next-to-last,” Stephens was widely quoted as saying.

Forty Niner drew post No. 4, Winning Colors No. 5 for the Preakness. When the gates opened, Pat Day on Forty Niner established inside position, with Gary Stevens and Winning Colors immediately outside. Day took a wide path, forcing Winning Colors to go even wider. The two horses bumped several times down the backstretch while Day andStevens were both off of what they considered to be a "dead rail."

Meanwhile, Eddie Delahoussaye on Kentucky Derby third-place finisher Risen Star, apparently recognized the battling jockeys ahead of him as he stalked them down the Pimlico backstretch. Delahoussaye saw the big hole inside, disregarded the advice to stay off the slow rail, and glided through the inside path passing the battling Winning Colors and Forty Niner with ease and rolled to a victory in the Preakness.

Honorable mention goes to jockey Angel Cordero Jr. on Brian's Time who followed Delahoussaye's inside path to get up for second over Winning Colors in third. Forty Niner was seventh.

After the race, Stevens said, "At about the half-mile pole, I saw Eddie (Delahoussaye) coming up on Risen Star and it was obvious then that Pat wasn't concerned with anybody getting through or maybe even winning the race. I've said it many times – as religious as Pat Day is, he threw out his Bible at the half-mile pole in that race."



Jeremy Rose - Afleet Alex, 2005
More than 20 years later, Afleet Alex had just finished third as one of the favorites in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, less than a length behind long shot winner Giacomo. Following the Derby, jockey Jeremy Rose accepted the responsibility for the loss saying that he did not ride his best race and may have cost Afleet Alex the Derby.

Going into the Preakness, the racing public had made Afleet Alex the favorite and eyes were on Jeremy Rose at Pimlico.

Just before the half-mile pole, Rose took Afleet Alex into a crowed group tiring front runners and was forced to stop the horse's momentum. But just as soon as he stopped, Afleet Alex started rolling again round the far turn and they had the leading Scrappy T in their sites and pounced on him like a jaguar chasing a slow pig. Just as the two began to turn for home and Rose began to pass on the outside, Scrappy T suddenly veered to the right, slamming into Afleet Alex and nearly dropping him as Rose was thrown from the saddle. But in that instant when Afleet Alex jumped backed into stride, Rose somehow managed to stay balanced and aboard and swung back into the stirrups and was again riding before most could comprehend what had happened.

Before anyone could take a breath after gasping in anticipation of the wreck at the top of the Pimlico stretch, Afleet Alex and Jeremy Rose were back in stride and well on their way to one of the more amazing Preakness victories of all time.



Editorial Note: The Brock Talk will be the guest handicapper this week on ThoroFan.com handicapping the Lone Star Derby (gr. 3).