Kentucky Derby Wagering Strategies

When evaluating the wagering opportunities in the 2010 Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands, one fact stands out. The first two favorites have drawn perhaps the two most undesirable post positions: Lookin at Lucky at 3-1 in the morning line, has drawn post one; and Sidney's Candy (5-1) is on the far outside in hole no. 20. For many that will be plenty to keep either one off the top tier of their trifectas and superfectas and away from being keyed in multi-race bets like the Pick-4.

Despite the bad position, I'm betting that Lookin at Lucky has enough speed to avert most of the trouble. He should also get a little help from starting gate neighbor Ice Box, who is likely to be dropping behind him and create some additional room for Lucky. I have an aversion to picking favorites, but having said all that, Looking at Lucky appears to be a head above the rest of this field (excluding Sidney's Candy.)

Sidney's Candy will have even more speed to negotiate a good spot in the race and from the far outside, jockey Joe Talamo will have a good view from which to see his options. My concern for Sidney's Candy is the potential fast pace in the race and him getting caught in that likely speed duel - or worse - not being able to relax while being rated for the first time. I don't like throwing Sidney's Candy off the top tier of my selections and I expect him to be in the hunt when they turn for home. I'm just banking he's used enough energy during the first mile of the race to allow a late runner to come and get him sometime during the long Churchill Downs stretch.


So my other Kentucky Derby key horse is Awesome Act (photo), the third place finisher behind Eskendereya and Jackson Bend in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) and the winner of the Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) in March. Awesome Act stumbled badly in that race and lost a shoe at the start. He is a late runner who got caught behind a slow pace, is making his third start off of a lay-off and may improve enough to win the Run For The Roses. He is the "Wise Guy" horse (meaning he has been the talk of the Churchill Downs barn area) which is usually a bad sign in itself. But I cashed one of my biggest gambles when Blushing John threw a shoe in the 1989 Oaklawn Handicap then came back to win the Pimlico Special... so I have a thing for shoe throwing horses.

My super longshot is Backtalk at 50-1. By that, I don't mean to say he will win, but his love of mud, good turn of foot, excuse in the Illinois Derby after a prerace work went awry, and a solid and perhaps underrated trainer in Tom Amoss make him a logical horse to put into my exotics hoping for a bonanza.

With that in mind, here are some suggestions for Kentucky Derby tickets.

$1 Trifecta (32 Combonations) = Total Cost $32
1-16
1-3-7-14-20
1-3-7-14-18-20

$1 Trifecta (84 Combinations) Total Cost = $84
1-16
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20

You may also have the option of wagering a 10-cent superfecta - one of my favorite new bets in racing. You get plenty of action at a relatively low cost with the possibility of a fairly big return on your investment.

$.10 Superfecta (420 Combinations) Total Cost = $42
1-16
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20

Horses In My Kentucky Derby Wagers
1. Lookin at Lucky
3. Noble's Promise
7. American Lion
15. Line of David
16. Awesome Act
17. Dublin
18. Backtalk
20. Sidney's Candy

Comments, Morning Line Odds and Post Positions of every Kentucky Derby contender

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Louisiana Challengers Lining Up Against Rachel Alexandra

Challengers are lining up to take on Rachel Alexandra when she makes her seasonal debut in the $200,000 Ladies Classic at Fair Grounds in New Orleans in less than two weeks. The Ladies Classic will be the first start of 2010 for the Horse of the Year and will be used to prepare for a possible race against the undefeated Zenyatta in the $5 million Apple Blossom Stakes at Oaklawn Park April 9.

According to fairgroundsracecourse.com, possible contenders include stablemates of both Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. Trainer John Sherriffs is considering sending from California Bayakoa Handicap (gr. 2) winner Zardana while Steve Asmussen may enter Pleasantly Blessed, a recent second-place finisher in the $50,000 Jersey Lilly Stakes at Sam Houston in Texas.

The local contingent seems plenty ready to meet the challenge as well with local stakes winners Clear Sailing and Double Espresso and locally stakes placed Fighter Wing and Unforgotten apparently scheduled to run as well.

Clear Sailing appears to have the best credentials coming off of a victory in the $60,000 Pelleteri Stakes at Fairgrounds over Fighter Wing and undefeated in three starts in New Orleans this winter. Double Espresso won the six furlong Pan Zareta Stakes Feb. 20 at Fair Grounds and will be stretching out to make the 1-1/16 mile distance of the Ladies Classic.

Asmussen sent Rachel Alexandra to the track Tuesday morning for a private work at 10:30 along side workmate Depaul. While the final time of the six furlong work was slow at 1:13.60, Asmussen did not appear to be troubled following the work, telling media "it was how fast [Depaul] was, and us wanting to keep her off of [him]."

According to Daily Racing Form reports, Rachel began the work some five lengths behind Depaul and was heavily restrained throughout the early part of the exercise before being allowed to stride out and easily pass Depaul. Rachel Alexandra's final quarter was significantly faster than the last. She started the first quarter of a mile in 25.60 seconds but ran the last quarter of the work in 22.60 seconds.

Backtalk Back On Derby Trail
A few of The Brock Talk favorites hit the winner's circle this past weekend with Backtalk winning the Sportman's Paradise at Delta Downs and Presious Passion taking the $150,000 Mac Diarmida Stakes (gr. IIT) at Gulfstream Park Sunday.

Admittedly, we stumbled upon Backtalk (photo below) when we posted an update on young sire Speedy Jones' breeding career. Backtalk had just become the first winner of his class for the young sire but then followed up with a nice juvenile career that included wins in the grade 3 Bashford Mandor at Churchill Downs and the grade 2 Sanford at Saratoga. He stumbled late in the year with a fourth in the Hopeful (gr. 1) behind Dublin, Aspire and Aikenite and a sub-par race in the Dixiana Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland in October.

The Sportman's Paradise is not your typical prep race for the Triple Crown, but following the victory, trainer Tom Amoss said the next start for Backtalk will likely be a step up and into a major prep. Although Amoss did not speculate on a race, the grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park or the grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby both will be run March 13 before the Florida Derby (gr. 1), and the Swale Stakes (gr. 2) fall on the following week at Gulfstream Park.

Presious Prevails While Life Is Sweeter in Dubai
Presious Passion made a successful preperation for his planned trip to the Middle East with his win in the 1-3/8 Mac Diarmida for the second consecutive year. Add that to the United Nations (gr. 1T) at Monmouth Park and the W.L. McKnight Stakes (gr. 2T) on the list of races that Presious Passion has won twice. A notable accomplishment to say the least.

Trainer Mary Hartman said plans are to send Presious Passion to Dubai for the $5 million Sheema Classic (gr. 1UAE) at 1-1/2 miles at Meydan Race Course March 27.

In another significant Dubai development, Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic (gr. 1) winner Life Is Sweet appears headed to the $10 million Dubai World Classic where she may face the likes of Champion Turf Horse Gio Ponti, two-time Japanese Horse of the Year Vodka, Pacific Classic (gr. 1) and San Antonio Handicap winner Richard's Kid and Breeders' Cup Classic third Twice Over.

Life Is Sweet, a 5-year-old stablemate of Zenyatta's in the John Sherriffs barn, should have no trouble running against the boys having finished third against males in the grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup last summer, just over seven lengths behind winner Rail Trip.

Backtalk Is Sassy In Sanford

With a bit of horse racing luck I have become a Backtalk fan. Back in mid-June when we mentioned Backtalk (photo) shortly after he broke his maiden at Churchill Downs, we mentioned he had become the first winner of his class for sire Smarty Jones.

Thursday at Saratoga the 2-year-old colt trained by Tom Amoss solidified his early popularity by remaining undefeated in winning the $150,000 Sanford Stakes (gr. 2) over the Steve Asmussen trained Enumerate.

At the top of the stretch Enumerate and Louisvilleluminary locked up and looked to be battling for the win. In the meantime, Backtalk had raced from off the pace while going six-wide around the turn and wore down the two leaders for the win.

It was the second consecutive graded stakes win for Backtalk, whose damn Apasionata Sonata is the daughter of 1978 Triple Crown winner Affirmed. After stumbling at the start, Backtalk won the grade 3 Bashford Manor at Churchill Downs Jul. 3. And again he impressed his trainer with his determination.

“ I’m very excited," Amoss said in bloodhorse.com.

"I think the ability to come from that far off the pace on a day like today when it looked, to me, as the day went on that speed was a good commodity (and) the wide trip he had … I think those things were very exciting. And, I would say, a will to win. The race was not decided until very late.”

Backtalk was purchased for $250,000 as a yearling and has now won $180,0985 for GoldMark Farm owner Paul Buhlman.


The largest and perhaps the most important thoroughbred auction of the year will feature a catalogue of 5,189 yearlings at Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky September 14-28. The first few days of the sale are always the most exciting as last year 12 yearlings sold for $1 million or more including an A.P. Indy filly that had the gavel drop on her at the $3.1 million mark. During the first day of the 15-day sale in 2008, 154 yearlings sold for an average of more than $363,000 and the second day saw the average climb to nearly $400,000 each. The median was $300,000 each day if your playing along on Excel at home.

Of the horses cataloged, 2,662 are colts, 2,524 are fillies, and three are geldings.

Keeneland recently announced that the commission rate on horses which fail to meet their reserve (RNAs) will be reduced from 4.5% to 2.5% for the upcoming sales season, beginning with the September sale. The fee reduction is one of several new enhancements Keeneland will debut in September.

Superstars such as Zenyatta and perhaps the nation's top turf horse so far this year, Gio Ponti, American Oaks starlet Gozzip Girl, Pioneerof The Nile, Stardom Bound and the very fast but directionaly challenged Thorn Song are among the 85 graded stakes winners this year that are all graduates of the Keeneland September yearling sale.

NYRA Photo

Beginners Battle In Bashford Manor

ESPN college basketball analyst Dick Vitale calls them diaper dandies. Major league baseball, the NFL, NBA, NHL and NASCAR call them rookies. They are the young and talented who have yet to prove their mettle at the next level of competition. In horse racing they are referred simply by their age - 2-year-olds. And one of the first big games of new season is Friday night at Churchill Downs in the grade 3, $100,000 Bashford Manor Stakes at 6 furlongs.

And like Walter Payton coming into the NFL out of small Jackson State or Jerry Rice out of tiny Mississippi Valley State, a top contender in the Bashford Manor does not hail from the high profile breeding farms of Kentucky nor the high powered barns of a Todd Pletcher or Bob Baffert.

Brassy Boy is a Arkansas homebred owned by Millsap Stables, and is by Storm and a Half, who stands for a paltry $2,000 in Starkman, Ark. He is trained by Hal Wiggins (photo at right), best known this year as the trainer of Rachel Alexandra before she was sold after her win in the grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and before the Preakness.

Brassy Boy comes into the Bashford Manor with a victory over maiden claimers (the lower of the two maiden race levels) and a come-from-behind allowance win at 28-1 which surprised even Wiggins. Jockey Corey Lanerie returns to ride.

On the other side of the prestige ledger in the Bashford Manor is Mission Impazible. Trained by multiple training champion Todd Pletcher, Mission Impazible is by Unbridled's Song, who stands in Kentucky for $125,000. He is ridden by two-time Jockey of the Year John Velazquez and may be the favorite Friday night coming off a troupble third place finish in the grade 3 Kentucky Juvenile Stakes at Churchill April 30.

Another contneder is Backtalk, a son of Smarty Jones who we mentioned on The Brock Talk after the colt broke his maiden in his frist race at Churchill Downs in mid-June. Backtalk is trained by Tom Amoss and will be ridden by Marcos Mena.

$100,000 Bashford Manor (gr. III, Race 10, 7:24 p.m.), 2YO, 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
PP. Horse, Jockey, Weight, Trainer
1. Grand Slam Andre (KY), S Bridgmohan, 118, S M Asmussen
2. Westrock Gold (FL), J R Leparoux, 118, D W Lukas
3. Brassy Boy (AR), C J Lanerie, 120, H R Wiggins
4. Mission Impazible (KY), J R Velazquez, 118, T A Pletcher
5. Backtalk (FL), M Mena, 118, T M Amoss
6. Even Wilder (KY), J K Court, 116, T Veinot
7. Soundman (KY), J Theriot, 118, D W Lukas
8. Vito Filitto (KY), C H Borel, 116, B S Flint
9. Flatter Than Me (KY), R Albarado, 118, M R Scherer