CD Barn Notes: BC Mile Hope Sidney's Candy Works On Turf

by Travers Manley and Gary Yunt | Churchill Downs Communications

Sidney's Candy, headed for the TVG Mile, breezed a half-mile on turf under Annie Finney. (Reed Palmer, CD)





PLETCHER SETTLES IN; SIDNEY’S CANDY WORKS ON TURF – Trainer Todd Pletcher, who saddled three of his six Breeders’ Cup winners at last year’s World Championships at Churchill Downs, began the process of improving on his career total Tuesday morning starting at 6 o’clock with light exercise from Breeders’ Cup Classic (GI) hopefuls Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty and concluding just before 10 o’clock with a half-mile grass work from Sidney’s Candy for the TVG Breeders’ Cup Mile (GI).

“I am here through the Breeders’ Cup,” said Pletcher, whose last contingent of World Championship runners arrived from New York on Monday morning.

Leading that contingent was the Repole Stable-owned duo of Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty. Both colts jogged once around the main track Tuesday, with Hector Ramos on Uncle Mo and Fernando Zamora on Stay Thirsty.

Pletcher plans to work both colts on Sunday.

“We pre-entered 11 altogether,” Pletcher said. “Hunt Crossing (Sentient Jet Juvenile Sprint), Stopshoppingmaria (Grey Goose Juvenile Fillies), Sweet Cat (Juvenile Fillies Turf), Her Smile (Sentient Jet Filly & Mare Sprint), Super Espresso (Ladies’ Classic), Finale (Juvenile Turf), Rule (Dirt Mile), Sidney’s Candy (Mile), and Aikenite who was cross-entered in the Sentient Jet Sprint and Dirt Mile, plus Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty.”

Uncle Mo won the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (GI) last year and Pletcher’s other winners were Pluck in the Juvenile Turf and More Than Real in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

“I feel good about all my horses and it looks like the ones that came in yesterday all shipped well,” Pletcher said. “We have some important works coming up and you hold your breath (until the event is here).”

Pletcher was asked if there were any of his runners that might be flying under the radar coming into this year’s championships.

"We’ve got a few that are in that category,” Pletcher said with a laugh. “Her Smile won the Prioress (GI) and got the perfect set-up and would need something similar. Super Espresso, we are going off her work here the other day (five furlongs in 1:01.60 over a fast track Saturday). She trained here in the spring before going to Pimlico (for a victory in the GIII DuPont Distaff), so for her it is racetrack related. Aikenite runs well here.”

WinStar Farm and Rubio B Stable’s Sidney’s Candy covered a half-mile on firm turf in :50 under exercise rider Annie Finney. Clockers got the first quarter in 27 seconds flat and a gallop-out time of 1:03.40 for five furlongs.

“It was a good work,” Pletcher said of Sidney’s Candy, who ran third in the Shadwell Turf Mile (GI) at Keeneland in his most recent start on Oct. 8. “It looked like he got over the ground well and finished strong.”

FIELDS TAKING SHAPE FOR OPENING-DAY POCAHONTAS AND IROQUOIS – A trio of Grade III winners are expected to be among the names to pass the entry box Thursday for the 43rd running of the $150,000 Pocahontas (GII) at a mile on the main track to be run Sunday.

The Pocahontas and the 30th running of the $100,000-added Iroquois (GIII) share top billing on Sunday’s opening-day program of the 21-day Fall Meeting that runs through Nov. 27. Sunday’s card, “Stars of Tomorrow I” will feature racing exclusively for 2-year-olds.

Heading the list of probables according to Churchill Downs racing officials are Believe You Can, Flashy Lassie and Georgie’s Angel.

Brereton Jones’ Believe You Can has won her past three starts, capped by a victory in the Tempted (GIII) at Belmont Park on Oct. 2. Barry King’s Flashy Lassie won the Debutante (GIII) here in June and Georgie’s Angel, beaten favorite in the Tempted, won the Schuylerville (GIII) at Saratoga. Georgie’s Angel is owned by Sheffer Racing Stable, Ronald Stocks, Betsy Wells and Kelly Weitsma.

Other probable starters for the Pocahontas, won last year by Dancinginherdreams, include And Why Not, Aubby K, Best of Times, Glinda the Good, Heart of Destiny, Spirited Miss and Taxi Dancer.

Lantern Hill Farm’s Motor City, third in the Arlington-Washington Futurity (GIII), tops the list of probables for the Iroquois. Other likely starters for the Iroquois, won last year by Astrology, include Hollywood Script, Mark Valeski, Purely Determined and Seven Lively Sins.

BARN TALK – Buff Bradley, trainer and co-owner of Groupie Doll, plans to bring the 3-year-old filly back in the Nov. 12 Mrs. Revere (GII) at 1 1/16 miles on the turf. Groupie Doll finished second in last Saturday’s Lexus Raven Run (GII) at Keeneland. …

Bisnath Parboo, trainer of Breeders’ Cup hopefuls Giant Ryan and Trinniberg, plans to work both horses Wednesday morning. Trinniberg (Sentient Jet Juvenile Sprint candidate) is scheduled to work three furlongs or a half-mile out of the gate at 7:15 with Giant Ryan (Grade I Sentient Jet Sprint) slated to work a half-mile or five furlongs after the renovation break. Willie Martinez is scheduled to be in the saddle for both works.

WORK TAB – Tom McCarthy’s General Quarters, working toward an expected start in Saturday’s Fayette (GII) at Keeneland, breezed three furlongs in :36.20 over a fast track. …

Lantern Hill Farm’s Motor City, a candidate for Sunday’s 30th running of the $100,000-added Iroquois (GIII), worked five furlongs in 1:00.60 before the renovation break under Calvin Borel. The work was the fifth fastest of 37 at the distance. …

Working six furlongs in 1:18.40 on the firm Matt Winn Turf Course was Gaillardia Racing’s Wilkinson, who was third in the Jamaica Handicap (GI) in his most recent start.

San Pasqual and Hal's Hope among first pages of 2011 Older Horse Story

No doubt the older horse ranks of 2011 have been depleted with the retirement of Horse of the Year candidates Zenyatta and Blame, as well as stars Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road and Lookin at Lucky. Those five horses alone will leave quite a void in the handicap division and horse racing as a whole.

But the new year has just been celebrated and it’s time to look ahead.

The preview of the older horse class of 2011 got an early start with the the grade 1 Hill ‘N’ Dale Cigar Mile at Aqueduct November 27, where we saw 34-1 longshot Jersey Town upset Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) winner Haynesfield. Finishing an uncharacteristic eighth in the Cigar Mile was Musket Man, a determined competitor with six wins from 18 career starts who has only finished off the board in two of those races. In the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) he was stepped on in the first turn and was never in contention.

It appears all three of the aforementioned Cigar Mile horses will be back in 2011.

On the west coast, trainer John Sadler started the Santa Anita season with a bang the day after Christmas winning both the grade 1 Malibu Stakes with Twirling Candy; and the grade III Sir Beauford Stakes with last year’s Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) winner Sidney’s Candy (photo right). On a very fast and new, natural dirt surface at Santa Anita, Twirling Candy broke the main dirt track record for seven furlongs, a record previously set by Spectacular Bid in 1980, by stopping the clock in 1:19.70. Almost equally impressive was Sidney’s Candy in winning the Sir Beauford (gr. III) by more than seven lengths. Both appear to be pointing for 4-year-old campaigns in 2011 with Twirling Candy set for the Strub Series at Santa Anita which also includes the Jan. 15 San Fernando (gr. II) for 4-year-olds going 1-1/16 miles and the Feb. 5 Strub Stakes (gr. II) at nine furlongs.


Also in Southern California, trainer Bob Baffert has said 6-year-old Richard’s Kid will be back for 2011, however his schedule may include the Dubai World Cup (gr. 1-UAE) which usually negates a North American campaign for much of the year. However the trainer may still have some options as he has indicated that Misremembered, winner of the 2010 Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I), will be back in 2011. Baffert also has Alcindor, although fourth in the Malibu in his most recent start, he is a colt who has captured some attention in Southern California.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) winner Dakota Phone is also slated for a 2011 return Saturday. Although he finished fourth behind Aggie Engineer in the Dec. 4 Native Diver Handicap over Hollywood Park’s Cushion track after his Breeder's Cup win at Churchill Downs, the Jerry Hollendorfer trainee gets a rematch with Aggie Engineer over Santa Anita’s new dirt surface in the grade II San Pasqual Handicap.

There will be a preview of the handicap division on the East coast Saturday as well at Gulfstream Park in the grade III Hal’s Hope Stakes. Won last year by Quality Road, the 2011 version is headed by the Todd Pletcher-trained Rule and the Morning Line from the Nick Zito barn.

Rule will be making his first start since finishing third last year in the Florida Derby (gr. I) behind Ice Box. On the other hand, Morning Line begins his 4-year-old season after winning the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) in September and finishing second to Dakota Phone in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

So the handicap class of 2011 doesn’t have as much star power as last year’s group. The reality is that few ever have or ever will. You don’t find Zenyattas and Rachel Alexandras in every generation. But this group has plenty of intrigue and uncertainty, which of course, is supposed to make for better horse racing. And it’s time to put down the champagne and find out who we’ll be debating about this time next year in the Horse of the Year race.

Kentucky Derby Wagering Strategies

When evaluating the wagering opportunities in the 2010 Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands, one fact stands out. The first two favorites have drawn perhaps the two most undesirable post positions: Lookin at Lucky at 3-1 in the morning line, has drawn post one; and Sidney's Candy (5-1) is on the far outside in hole no. 20. For many that will be plenty to keep either one off the top tier of their trifectas and superfectas and away from being keyed in multi-race bets like the Pick-4.

Despite the bad position, I'm betting that Lookin at Lucky has enough speed to avert most of the trouble. He should also get a little help from starting gate neighbor Ice Box, who is likely to be dropping behind him and create some additional room for Lucky. I have an aversion to picking favorites, but having said all that, Looking at Lucky appears to be a head above the rest of this field (excluding Sidney's Candy.)

Sidney's Candy will have even more speed to negotiate a good spot in the race and from the far outside, jockey Joe Talamo will have a good view from which to see his options. My concern for Sidney's Candy is the potential fast pace in the race and him getting caught in that likely speed duel - or worse - not being able to relax while being rated for the first time. I don't like throwing Sidney's Candy off the top tier of my selections and I expect him to be in the hunt when they turn for home. I'm just banking he's used enough energy during the first mile of the race to allow a late runner to come and get him sometime during the long Churchill Downs stretch.


So my other Kentucky Derby key horse is Awesome Act (photo), the third place finisher behind Eskendereya and Jackson Bend in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) and the winner of the Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) in March. Awesome Act stumbled badly in that race and lost a shoe at the start. He is a late runner who got caught behind a slow pace, is making his third start off of a lay-off and may improve enough to win the Run For The Roses. He is the "Wise Guy" horse (meaning he has been the talk of the Churchill Downs barn area) which is usually a bad sign in itself. But I cashed one of my biggest gambles when Blushing John threw a shoe in the 1989 Oaklawn Handicap then came back to win the Pimlico Special... so I have a thing for shoe throwing horses.

My super longshot is Backtalk at 50-1. By that, I don't mean to say he will win, but his love of mud, good turn of foot, excuse in the Illinois Derby after a prerace work went awry, and a solid and perhaps underrated trainer in Tom Amoss make him a logical horse to put into my exotics hoping for a bonanza.

With that in mind, here are some suggestions for Kentucky Derby tickets.

$1 Trifecta (32 Combonations) = Total Cost $32
1-16
1-3-7-14-20
1-3-7-14-18-20

$1 Trifecta (84 Combinations) Total Cost = $84
1-16
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20

You may also have the option of wagering a 10-cent superfecta - one of my favorite new bets in racing. You get plenty of action at a relatively low cost with the possibility of a fairly big return on your investment.

$.10 Superfecta (420 Combinations) Total Cost = $42
1-16
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20

Horses In My Kentucky Derby Wagers
1. Lookin at Lucky
3. Noble's Promise
7. American Lion
15. Line of David
16. Awesome Act
17. Dublin
18. Backtalk
20. Sidney's Candy

Comments, Morning Line Odds and Post Positions of every Kentucky Derby contender

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An Awesome Lookin Exacta

1. Lookin at Lucky (3-1) – Definitely battle tested with significant trouble in his last two races in the Rebel (gr. 2) victory and the third in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). His unlucky draw into the inside post will be helped by Ice Box, who is next door in hole #2 and likely to fall back quickly, giving Lookin at Lucky a little space. He also has the ability to launch his rally from any location in the pack (he raillied from 10th to just miss by a head in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) so if he gets shuffled back early, he can still roll from far back late. If you’re a fan, then 3-1 odds Saturday may be the best value you’ll ever see on this horse for a while. He's a potential super star who has looked great in the mornings. If he goes to 7-2 or higher, he’ll be irresistible.

2. Ice Box (10-1) – The winner of the Florida Derby (gr. 1) has many things going for him - not the least of which is the likely pace in this year’s Derby. He is one of two big closers (along with long shot and Ark. Derby winner Stately Vicor) in a year filled with front runners who are likely to insure an early fast pace. He is trained by 2-time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito and although the Florida Derby may not have been that strong, he ran down the leaders on his left lead. Traffic and the 6-week gap since the Florida Derby will be his biggest obstacles. I’m siding with the obstacles.

3. Noble’s Promise (12-1) – A bridesmaid to Lookin at Lucky in his two starts just previous to a disastrous Arkansas Derby that almost cost him a trip to this Derby because of cuts and bruises suffered at Oaklawn. It was also later discovered that Noble's Promise had lung infection that week that has also since been irradicated. Had a big work over the Churchill Downs mud Monday so it appears he’s recovered and ready.

4. Super Saver (15-1) – Second as the front runner in a suspect Arkansas Derby (gr. 1). If he couldn’t hold on as the speed in Arkansas, he's not likely to do it in Kentucky.

5. Line of David (30-1) – A long shot winner of the Arkansas Derby and a winner of three straight as an intriguing speed horse that is improving with distance. Will need some breaks and a slow pace to have a chance. A half-mile in 47 seconds ala 2002 winner War Emblem will be a plus, but that scenario is not likely this year with all the competing gas.

6. Stately Victor (30-1) – He won the Blue Grass (gr. 1) on Keeneland’s Polytrack at 40-1 odds. His other win came against maidens. Distance won’t be the problem with this horse with 7 of 8 races at 1-1/16 miles or further. Talent may be the challenge.

7. American Lion (30-1) – Won the Illinois Derby (gr. 3) as the front runner on a Hawthorne track that may have favored his style. In much the same boat as other speed horses needing some luck and a slow pace but his ability to lay back in second/third might come in handy if he can rate in the Derby. At big odds he stays on the bottom of my superfecta, and not much else.

8. Dean’s Kitten (50-1) – He looks like a turf horse that took to the Polytrack at Turfway and defeated a weak Lane’s End (gr. 2) group. Just not much I like about this horse.

9. Make Music For Me (50-1) – The second to last horse to get into the Derby Wednesday morning and eight lengths behind Stately Victor in the Blue Grass in his last race. Doesn’t mind being behind the front runners and making a late move, but his only win came on grass in an ungraded stakes in California.

10. Paddy O’Prado (20-1) – He looks like another turf horse who adapted well to Keeneland’s Polytrack and ran a second in the Blue Grass behind Stately Victor. Not sure that will translate in the Kentucky Derby but he has looked good in the mornings this week.

11. Devil May Care (10-1) – Will be trying to become only the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby in 136 years so odds are against her. Word has it she’s been training the best of Pletcher’s army and put in nice final work Saturday to convince the trainer to let her go. Six weeks since her nice win against fillies in the Bonnie Miss (gr. 3) in Florida raises additional questions, although a very nice race and one of the few in this field to achieve a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure (100 in Bonnie Miss.) Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez won the Belmont with the filly Rags To Riches and I’m sure they’d like to each pick up the first Derby victory with another female.

12. Conveyance (12-1) – Strategy will be to go to the lead and let the others try to catch him much like Baffert trainee War Emblem in the 2002 Kentucky Derby win. Undefeated until second in Sunland Derby (gr. 3), a race in which Baffert said he was not on his game. His sire, Indian Charlie, couldn’t run successfully at 1-1/4 miles so that is a concern along with others who want to run on the lead. He has been impressive in his works, but I’m not going to play him at 12-1 odds.

13. Jackson Bend (15-1) – A distant second to once Derby favorite Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial who has worked very well at Churchill. Nick Zito, who can win Derbies and pull upstets in Triple Crown races will need all of Zito’s talent and luck to adorn the blanket of roses.

14. Mission Impazible (20-1) – My favorite of the Pletcher horses with a stalking running style, a good work at Churchill Saturday and comments from the trainer about this horse’s “improvement.” On paper there are additional signs of him getting better so he has all the right ingredients of a horse perhaps “peaking at the right time,” (A most important spice with intentions of cooking on Derby Day.)

15. Discreetly Mine (30-1) – Pletcher’s “Anti“ Mission Impazible who looks like he might have peaked in his Risen Star (gr. 2) victory in February then a fourth in the La. Derby. Another speed horse that is not even on my top tier of front runners.

16. Awesome Act (10-1) – British invader who crossed the pond to finish 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November before going home for the winter. Flew back to United States to win the Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) in New York before finishing third to Eskendereya in the Wood when losing a shoe after stumbling out of the starting gate. Works have not been great but I like his chances at double digit odds and will be my top choice on some trifecta and superfecta tickets.

17. Dublin (12-1) – Came home a weak third in the Arkansas Derby which didn’t concern me as Lukas may not have wound him real tight for that race. But his training at Churchill Downs has not been as sharp as what I would have liked. I kept thinking this horse would give me something to hang a wager on… but no to the any positive signs and no to getting 12-1 when I think there’s better value elsewhere.

18. Backtalk (50-1) – The Brock Talk has been a fan of this horse since we began following him shortly after he broke his maiden in June. He is the final horse to qualify for this Kentucky Derby and the 50-1 odds are certainly fair after a dull third in the Illinois Derby. He is by Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones and will benefit from his stalking running style and if can show the quick turn of foot he had in winning a minor stake at Delta Downs in Louisiana. According to trainer Tom Amoss, if it rains Saturday, 100,000 fans will be upset, but Backtalk will be happy.

19. Homeboykris (50-1) – You may hear or read about horses who are 50-1 in the Kentucky Derby when they should be 100-1. Homeboykris is just such a horse with his last win coming in October in the grade 1 Champagne. While a nice victory, it was seven months and his last race, a loss in a non-stake race at only one mile, was more than two months ago.

20. Sidney’s Candy (5-1) – I’m not one to put too much into post positions, especially with a horse like Sidney’s Candy with a ton of speed who will have the entire field to his inside as jockey Joe Talamo picks a spot for him to negotiate the first turn. Although trainer John Sadler says the horse will also rate just fine, he appears to be the best of the speedsters by quite a margin and an expected improvement off of the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita keeps him among the best even with the outside starting point. He has the breeding to run all day and looked good while extending his lead in the Santa Anita Derby. His morning works have been fast enough but reports are not glowing as to how he looked doing it under more than expected urging from the rider. He’ll be second and third on a lot of my tickets, but not on top.

Lookin at Lucky Looking At Unlucky #1 Post

Lookin at Lucky, the Champion Two-Year-Old Male in 2009 and the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands Saturday, has again been shunned by his namesake ol' Mr. Luck. After encountering severe trouble in his last two starts in which competitors bumped him during a Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) victory and a Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) third, Lookin at Lucky draws into the dreaded number one post position for the Kentucky Derby.

The far inside post is dreaded for many reasons among Kentucky Derby trainers not the least of which is traffic congestion. During the nearly quarter-mile run to the first turn, the 19 horses to the outside all try to get near his position on or close to the rail in effort to save ground around the turn. Some runners will want to be there ahead of Looking at Lucky and may unintentionally cut him off. Others invariable cause domino bumping incidents that sometimes conclude with the inside horse taking the worst of the ruckus.

Or the trouble may even start before the race in the starting gate, in which Lookin at Lucky will be the first to load and thus spend the most time.

There are some silver linings around Lookin at Lucky's dark post position cloud however. He has plenty of talent and speed to dash away from gate in an effort to avoid much of the trouble should jockey Garrett Gomez and trainer Bob Baffert decide to employ that strategy. It is doubtful he would sprint to the lead, but the more horses he leaves behind, the less chance of traffic. It would take some early energy however.

He also drew next to Ice Box in post two, who is one of the true closers in the race. The Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner will likely be at a pace not much faster than a gallop on his way to the first turn in an effort to stay behind the ensuing equine quagmire. That should give Lookin at Lucky some additional room in which to avoid potential problems early in the race.

Additional silver lining for Lookin at Lucky came when his closest competitor drew the post farthest away and generally deemed as the second worst. Sidney's Candy, who defeated Lookin at Lucky in winning the Santa Anita Derby and is the second choice in the morning line, drew the far outside post 20. Big Brown in 2008 and Clyde Van Dusen in 1929 are the only horses to win the Kentucky Derby from post position 20.

Sidney's Candy has won his last three races, all graded stakes, in wire-to-wire fashion and thus has plenty of early gas to to clear competitors and merge towards the inside. And although trainer John Sadler has said Sidney's Candy will not need to have the early lead and probably won't in the Kentucky Derby, (especially now), he certainly appears to have the speed to overcome the additional distance created from breaking to the far outside.

Although 12 horses have won the Derby from the 1 post position making it tied with post 5 for producing the most winners, the last to do so was Ferdinand in 1986 and it took an historically clever ride from jockey Bill Shoemaker to pull off that win.

Having the two favorites draw the worst post positions may also create more opportunities for the others looking for the upset.

The filly Devil May Care, co-third choice at 10-1 in the morning line, drew an optimal position in the middle of the gate in post 11. Ice Box is also listed at 10-1 as well as Awesome Act, who drew post 18.

Post 18 poses many of the same obstacles for Awesome Act as post 20 does for Sidney's Candy, but Awesome Act does not have the same early acceleration. Awesome Act and jockey Julian Leparoux will most likely take a much less aggressive approach and will be just that more susceptible to bad racing luck.

Endorsement injury not life threatening
Sunland Derby (gr. 3) winner Endorsement suffered a broken ankle during training Wednesday morning and was obviously not entered in the Derby. The injury is a non-displaced condular fracture and is not life threatening.

Earlier Wednesday morning, trainer Todd Pletcher confirmed that he would not enter Derby hopeful Interactif. That left the door open for Make Music For Me and Backtalk, number 21 and 22 on the graded earnings list last night, to enter the Derby today.

Kentucky Derby Post Position and Morning Line
1. Lookin At Lucky, 3-1
2. Ice Box, 10-1
3. Noble's Promise, 12-1
4. Super Saver, 15-1
5. Line of David, 30-1
6. Stately Victor, 30-1
7. American Lion, 30-1
8. Dean's Kitten, 50-1
9. Make Music For Me, 50-1
10. Paddy O'Prado, 20-1
11. Devil May Care (f), 10-1
12. Conveyance, 12-1
13. Jackson Bend, 15-1
14. Mission Impazible, 20-1
15. Discreetly Mine, 30-1
16. Awesome Act, 10-1
17. Dublin, 12-1
18. Backtalk, 50-1
19. Homeboykris (g), 50-1
20. Sidney's Candy, 5-1

Kentucky Derby: Pace, Traffic and Faith

One of oldest and most sound handicapping principles in thoroughbred racing is "pace makes the race." The study of handicapping under this theory dictates that each horse in a given race be classified as a front runner, a stalker or a closer. (Different systems have different terms, but the definitions are fairly consistent). After which the potential prognosticator attempts to map out the race at different stages relative to the competitors positions and energy used and determine which has the best chance to win.If there are too many front runners, the thinking goes, they will fight each other for the lead and run too fast, too early, tire and eventually surrender the lead to the stalkers and closers. A lone speed horse, on the other hand, may dictate a slow pace and have plenty to withstand the late challengers.

Without question, the first scenario appears very likely in the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Among the 20 most likely Derby starters as of Tuesday, no less than seven of them are legitimate speed horses including Sidney's Candy (photo), the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) winner and the probable second choice in the betting behind only Lookin at Lucky.

With that many horses going for the lead, the pace of this year's Kentucky Derby figures to be very rapid and will theoretically compromise the chances of the front running horses. Of the seven speed horses in the Derby, Line of David, Conveyance and Sidney's Candy are the most apt at winning from the front end and are likely to try to set the pace in the Derby.

The jockeys on these speed horses will be riding much more aggressively out of the gate and during the first quarter-mile run past the grandstand for the first time and looking for the few front row spots around the famous clubhouse turn.

Each year hundreds of photos are taken of the horses running around the first turn in the Kentucky Derby with the twin spires in the backround. Television producers also make a point of taking annual signature shot of the stampede around the first. For the jockeys aboard the front runners - it is their first job in the race to make that shot. You don't have to be the first one in the picture, but the cameras better see you. The race is most like over for any front runner lost back in the pack that early.

Eleven of the Derby contenders appear to be stalkers and will most likely be making up the middle of the pack as the field begins their run down the Churchill Downs backstretch.

Note: After saying Monday that Interactif was unlikely for the Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher said a final decision will be made Wednesday. That would eliminate Backtalk should Interactif enter.

Of this group, Paddy O'Prado, Jackson Bend and Homeboykris are the most likely to be nearest the leaders as they have raced very near the front runners in their recent races and are thus most vulnerable to also getting caught in a fast pace early. While the other stalkers appear to be more flexible in how they can be placed by their jockey during the race. Notable horses such as Lookin at Lucky, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible, Awesome Act and Noble's Promise should fall into the second tier of stalkers.

The stalkers will be looking to have a clean break from the gate and an uneventful first run past the grandstand and into the clubhouse turn. The objective of the jockeys aboard these stalkers will be to avoid as much of the inevitable traffic jam caused when the 20 horses begin to negotiate positions in the first 400 yards. Going into the first turn, those plans can collide and horses can bump, check, jostle and even stumble. The stalkers are most likely to get the brunt of that traffic and can also lose all chance of victory at this point as well.

Down the backstretch, relaxation and rhythm will be everyone's goal. Jockeys will be hoping for a ride with still hands, long reins and a straight back that will hold a martini glass and not spill a drop.

Near the red and white pole near the far turn a half-mile from the finish, the jockeys hands will begin to move as front runners begin to tire and stalkers and closers begin to rally. Turn number two also provides the second bevy of traffic obstacles, but this time it will be more vertical as the jockeys on any potential winners begin to steer around and through the stopping pretenders.

As three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert says, "At the top of the stretch, you just want your horse to have a chance to win. If they're backing up at that point, it's just not very fun."

The Churchill Downs stretch is one of the longest in North America at 1,097 feet from the far turn to the finish line - just 223 feet short a quarter-mile. So closer and late stalkers have plenty of ground closers to run down any front runners.

How that turns out Saturday, nobody yet knows. But it is sure to be another fitting conclusion to the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Tuesday Work Recap from Mike Welsh Daily Racing Form

More Derby Fun Facts
102 of the 135 previous winners of the Kentucky Derby 102 were foaled in Kentucky. Florida is next with six winners followed by Virginia (4), California (3) and Tennessee (3)... Citation (1948) (coupled with Coaltown) and Count Fleet (1943) each paid $2.80. These were the smallest winning prices recorded since pari-mutuel betting on the Derby was introduced in 1908...

TBA Kentucky Derby Morning Lines Show Differences and Similarities

Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance has released our 2010 Kentucky Derby Morning Line where fans can go to our website for different morning line odds as calculated by our bloggers and other turf writers and guest.

It is an interesting exercise in opinions and perceptions with each line unique, but also with obvious similarities. Some differences may be as subtle as a point between to odds or as different as the definition or purpose of a morning line.

I define a morning line as simply the line maker's prediction of how the betting public will perceive and thus place win wagers in a given race. A perfect morning line is one in which the morning line odds on each horse exactly match the final win odds of that horse.

However, I have known morning line makers employed by tracks that emphatically believed the morning line should reflect their opinion of how the public should bet the race or worse, a reflection of the probably of winning they assign each horse. Some tracks somewhat provide a version of both with the published "program selections" corresponding to the morning line and "handicappers selections" reflecting the line makers top three picks.

Many track morning line makers are also severely restricted by management and must not assign odds above or below a given guideline. Generally they prohibit any horse being assigned morning line odds of less than even odds nor higher than 20-to-1. The belief behind this policy is that races with heavy favorites or big long shots reflect poorly on their product as being competitive. As flawed as that practice is, it remains a strong held policy at many tracks.

As of Monday afternoon, nearly every line maker on the TBA site has made Eskendereya the favorite with only one blogger making Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) winner Sidney's Candy their top choice. Most have Eskendereya in the 5-2 or 3-1 range with Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) winner Lookin at Lucky second at around 5-to-1 odds. Sidney's Candy is the only other horse averaging less than 10-to-1 odds, receiving around 7-1 from the panelists.

As of Monday afternoon, I was the only author to make Eskendereya less than 2-to-1. I have him at 9-to-5 based on two things. First, no horse has come into the Kentucky Derby as impressive as Eskendereya since Point Given in 2001, who went off at 9-to-5 in a field of 17. Ekendereya and Point Given prepared for the Derby with similar dominance, just on different coasts.

Point Given won the grade 2 San Felipe Stakes by 2-1/4 lengths with a 110 Beyer speed figure. Eskendereya won the grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes by 8-1/2 lengths with a 106 Beyer. Point Given then won the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby by 5-1/2 lengths with 110 Beyer while Eskendereya made his final prep in the grade 1 Wood Memorial, winning by nearly ten lengths with a 109 Beyer number.

Having three additional betting interests in 2010 compared to 2001 would usually drive Eskendereya's odds above 2-to-1 during a year of relatively normal prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. But this year, three big preps produced winners with double digit odds. Stately Victor won the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. 1) at 40-1 odds, Ice Box won the grade 1 Florida Derby at 20-1 and Line of David took the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) at 17-1. Endorsement, who seems to have plenty of support as an upset candidate, won the grade 3 Sunland Derby at 11-1. Having so many long shot winners qualify for the Kentucky Derby will help drive down the odds of a prohibitive favorite like Eskendereya even further.

There are also six horses in this year's Derby who were beaten favorites in their last race. Interactif, Discreetly Mine, Conveyance, Rule, Noble's Promise and Lookin at Lucky were all defeated last time out as the most popular betting choice. I expect Lookin at Lucky to be the only one to hold any resemblance of his popularity and have him listed at 5-1 in the morning line. Sidney's Candy at 8-1 in my line, defeated Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby as the 3-1 second choice and is the only other horse in the Derby I have listed less than 15-1.

Producing a morning line for a race just less than two weeks away is risky business at best, so I must disclose that conditions, horses and my morning line will change as developments occur. It is also notable that the formula used in the TBA Morning Line devised by Handride author Patrick Patten is in line with the generally accepted morning line formula used by line makers throughout horse racing which takes into consideration factors such as the number of betting interest and track take-out in order to best reflect an actual pari-mutuel betting pool.

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Eskenderya Perfect. Lookin at Lucky Not

If one could envision a perfect preparation for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), it might look a lot like Eskendereya's Wood Memorial (gr. 1). Jockey John Velazquez spent more energy looking for challengers in the final quarter mile of the Wood than urging Eskendereya. And Eskendereya apparently knew it. Down the stretch his ears were pricked as if asking the jockey for instructions or perhaps permission - permission to run faster.

Instead, Velazquez only rode, relaxed and probably relished in the machine beneath him. All while galloping past the wire 8-1/2 lengths ahead of Jackson Bend, Awesome Act and Schoolyard Dreams.


The picture perfect Wood Memorial by Eskendereya will make him the favorite - or maybe heavy favorite - for the Kentucky Derby to be run May 1.

Bob Baffert, the trainer of west coast favorite Lookin at Lucky in the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby Saturday, perhaps could not have envisioned a more unpleasant preparation for Kentucky. He saw Lookin at Lucky crowded shortly after the break by Cardiff Giant and almost dropped around the turn by Who's Up only to see his horse valiantly rebound for third when many horses would have quit.

After the Santa Anita Derby, Baffert criticized jockey Garrett Gomez. Gomez punched Victor Espinoza (jockey of Who's Up), who then got punched again by the Santa Anita board of stewards with a 3-day suspension for careless riding. Gomez also got slapped with a fine for punching.

Meanwhile, Sidney's Candy had just won the Santa Anita Derby by 4-1/2 lengths ahead of the late charging Setsuko and the rebounding Looking at Lucky in third. Although he drew away from the field down the stretch, he was coming off of slow fractions of :24.00 seconds for the first quarter and :48.50 for the half. He won't get away with a waltz like that on the lead in the Derby, which is why I don't have any higher than eighth on my Elite Eight this week.

American Lion won the Illinois Derby (gr. 2) Saturday and looked good while pulling away from second-place finisher Yuwanna Twist. American Lion also got away with easy fractions with the first half-mile in a 49.32 seconds. But American Lion had 8-5 favorite Yuwanna Twist on his flanks almost the entire trip around the track. But it is the first good race of the year for American Lion and additional improvement will be needed in Kentucky.



The Kentucky Derby Elite Eight
1-Eskendereya: He improved on his Fountain of Youth in the Wood with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure with a stretch run that more resembled a stroll.
2-Lookin at Lucky: The trip handicapper in me keeps this horse among the top contenders still. Although after two terrible trips and the Rebel and Santa Anita Derby, hoping for the first clear trip in three races among the Kentucky Derby field of 20, may be a little naive.
3-Noble's Promise: Ran a big race in the Rebel to almost take down Lookin at Lucky and may well be among the favorites in the Arkansas Derby Saturday.
4-Odysseus: His very late move in the last 100 yards of the Tampa Bay Derby was unusual, but impressive. He runs in the Bluegrass Stakes Saturday at Keeneland in his final prep.
5-Setsuko: The pedestrian pace in the Santa Anita Derby compromised his chances of improving on a second-place finish. He will have a much more honest pace to target in Kentucky.
6-Sidney's Candy: The benefactor and horse responsible for the tepid pace on his way to winning the Santa Anita Derby. He won't get that easy lead in Louisville.
7-Dublin: Has the stalking running style I like and I'm counting on the experience of four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas to manage the needed improvement. He will likely meet Noble's Promise again at home in Arkansas.
8-American Lion: Finally lived up to some of his expectations with a clear trip in the Illinois Derby. He'll have to improve further to get to the winner's circle in the Derby.