TBA Kentucky Derby Morning Lines Show Differences and Similarities

Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance has released our 2010 Kentucky Derby Morning Line where fans can go to our website for different morning line odds as calculated by our bloggers and other turf writers and guest.

It is an interesting exercise in opinions and perceptions with each line unique, but also with obvious similarities. Some differences may be as subtle as a point between to odds or as different as the definition or purpose of a morning line.

I define a morning line as simply the line maker's prediction of how the betting public will perceive and thus place win wagers in a given race. A perfect morning line is one in which the morning line odds on each horse exactly match the final win odds of that horse.

However, I have known morning line makers employed by tracks that emphatically believed the morning line should reflect their opinion of how the public should bet the race or worse, a reflection of the probably of winning they assign each horse. Some tracks somewhat provide a version of both with the published "program selections" corresponding to the morning line and "handicappers selections" reflecting the line makers top three picks.

Many track morning line makers are also severely restricted by management and must not assign odds above or below a given guideline. Generally they prohibit any horse being assigned morning line odds of less than even odds nor higher than 20-to-1. The belief behind this policy is that races with heavy favorites or big long shots reflect poorly on their product as being competitive. As flawed as that practice is, it remains a strong held policy at many tracks.

As of Monday afternoon, nearly every line maker on the TBA site has made Eskendereya the favorite with only one blogger making Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) winner Sidney's Candy their top choice. Most have Eskendereya in the 5-2 or 3-1 range with Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) winner Lookin at Lucky second at around 5-to-1 odds. Sidney's Candy is the only other horse averaging less than 10-to-1 odds, receiving around 7-1 from the panelists.

As of Monday afternoon, I was the only author to make Eskendereya less than 2-to-1. I have him at 9-to-5 based on two things. First, no horse has come into the Kentucky Derby as impressive as Eskendereya since Point Given in 2001, who went off at 9-to-5 in a field of 17. Ekendereya and Point Given prepared for the Derby with similar dominance, just on different coasts.

Point Given won the grade 2 San Felipe Stakes by 2-1/4 lengths with a 110 Beyer speed figure. Eskendereya won the grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes by 8-1/2 lengths with a 106 Beyer. Point Given then won the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby by 5-1/2 lengths with 110 Beyer while Eskendereya made his final prep in the grade 1 Wood Memorial, winning by nearly ten lengths with a 109 Beyer number.

Having three additional betting interests in 2010 compared to 2001 would usually drive Eskendereya's odds above 2-to-1 during a year of relatively normal prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby. But this year, three big preps produced winners with double digit odds. Stately Victor won the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. 1) at 40-1 odds, Ice Box won the grade 1 Florida Derby at 20-1 and Line of David took the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) at 17-1. Endorsement, who seems to have plenty of support as an upset candidate, won the grade 3 Sunland Derby at 11-1. Having so many long shot winners qualify for the Kentucky Derby will help drive down the odds of a prohibitive favorite like Eskendereya even further.

There are also six horses in this year's Derby who were beaten favorites in their last race. Interactif, Discreetly Mine, Conveyance, Rule, Noble's Promise and Lookin at Lucky were all defeated last time out as the most popular betting choice. I expect Lookin at Lucky to be the only one to hold any resemblance of his popularity and have him listed at 5-1 in the morning line. Sidney's Candy at 8-1 in my line, defeated Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby as the 3-1 second choice and is the only other horse in the Derby I have listed less than 15-1.

Producing a morning line for a race just less than two weeks away is risky business at best, so I must disclose that conditions, horses and my morning line will change as developments occur. It is also notable that the formula used in the TBA Morning Line devised by Handride author Patrick Patten is in line with the generally accepted morning line formula used by line makers throughout horse racing which takes into consideration factors such as the number of betting interest and track take-out in order to best reflect an actual pari-mutuel betting pool.

To view the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance 3-Year-Old Standing sponsored by OCD Pellets, Click here.

Endorsement Makes Talk's Kentucky Elite Eight

Last week it was the sweet sixteen in conjunction with the NCAA men's basketball tournament, so staying in line with March Madness, here's our Kentucky Derby Elite Eight. I didn't expect the top eight to move much this week unless Conveyance or Discreetly Mine ran a big race in their respective Derby preps. I was correct in that neither Conveyance nor Discreetly Mine would crack into my elite eight, but since mouths are often judged by the money behind them, I must disclose my inability to profit from the outcome of the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) or it's pier in New Mexico, the Sunland Derby (gr. 3).

And even if you would have told me that Mission Impazible would win in Louisiana and Endorsement would take the Sunland Derby, I would have calculated wrong as to which would be more impressive.

Mission Impazible came to Louisiana from the powerful Todd Pletcher barn and a less than ideal trip while running fourth in the grade 3 Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn in February. But the 10-1 shot, stalked favored Discreetly Mine and A Little Warm through a comfortable pace before switching to the outside to rundown the leaders nearing the end of the long Fair Grounds stretch.

Despite the win, however, I hesitate to make him one of my top contenders as I suspect Mission Impazible may not have even been the best horse in the Louisiana Derby. Third-place finisher Drosselmeyer and jockey Kent Desormeaux spent the better part of the far turn trying to keep from running up on the barrier of leaders in front of them. It was a nice race and I like the improving pattern in Mission Impazible's races - just not enough for me to place him to be among my elite.


On the other hand, and also coming from Oaklawn Park but from the maiden ranks, Endorsement cruised to an upset win over Conveyance in the Sunland Derby. Being a son of the leading sire Distorted Humor, from the powerful WinStar Farm, with jockey Robby Albarado and a $450,000 Keenland September yearling purchase, he had plenty of credentials, except those on the track. His three career races were spent trying to win for the first time.



But as he and Conveyance raced toward the stretch at Sunland, it was apparent that Endorsement had the edge as Albarado had not moved a muscle and Martin Garcia on Conveyance was scrubbing away asking for more. After a battle to mid-stretch, Endorsement seemed to pull away with ease and in the end hit the wire with an impressive 101 Beyer Speed Figure. It was a difficult performance to ignore and enough to make The Brock Talk's Elite Eight.

The Kentucky Derby Elite Eight
1-Lookin at Lucky: Trainer Bob Baffert has called a last minute audible and will stay at home with Lookin at Lucky for the Santa Anita Derby Saturday instead of the planned Arkansas Derby in two weeks. Baffert trained Derby winners Silver Charm ('97) and Real Quiet ('98) both prepped with runner-up performances in the Santa Anita Derby.
2-Noble's Promise: Ran a big race in the Rebel to almost take down Lookin at Lucky and may now be the favorite in Arkansas Derby with the later's departure.
3-Eskendereya: His eye-popping victory in the Fountain of Youth also gave him a big edge with a 106 Beyer Speed Figure. But that may be the challenge for Pletcher to keep him on the path of improvement in the Wood Memorial and into Kentucky.
4-Odysseus: His very late move in the last 100 yards of the Tampa Bay Derby was unusual, but impressive.
5-Awesome Act: British import invaded Yankee territory more successfully the second time in winning New York's Gotham Stakes. Now he'll have home field advantage over Florida invaders in the Wood.
6-Endorsement: Despite the big beyer number (101) and impressive Sunland Derby, I can't put him ahead of the rest until they have their final preparations as well.
7-Dublin: Has the stalking running style I like and I'm counting on the experience of four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas to manage the needed improvement. He will likely meet Noble's Promise again at home in Arkansas.
8-Schoolyard Dreams: Looked the winner of the Tampa Bay Derby until the photo finish was published. Next stop Wood Memorial.

Click here to see the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance 3-Year-Old Male Standings

The Horse Named Brock
Last summer when the two-year-old began to run, Backtalk caught our attention as we continue to enjoy him in his effort to reach the Kentucky Derby.

This year, we will have an obvious youngster to trail as Jess Jackson named his $2.3 million Distorted Humor colt Brock.

According to Bloodhorse.com, Brock is in early training at the Robert Scalon Training Center in Florida preparing for a possible first journey to the races in May.

Setting The Scene for the First, of the Two Most Exciting Minutes In Sports

Saturday in New Orleans and Sunday near El Paso, we will be treated to perhaps the preambles to the first minute of the most exciting two minutes in sports. Because this weekend, two of the top three big front runners on most Derby lists, Discreetly Mine and Conveyance, make their final tune-ups for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands to be run May 6. The other, Sidney's Candy, runs in the Santa Anita Derby next week.

To make matters more interesting, both Conveyance and Discreetly Mine, are from two powerful stables that also include the current Derby favorites, Eskendereya and Lookin' at Lucky. Three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert trains Conveyance and Lookin' at Lucky among other Derby hopefuls, while Todd Pletcher (left) has Discreetly Mine and Eskendereya in his arsenal. According to the Paulick Report, those two have won seven of the 20 graded races for 3-year-old males this year.

If the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands were run tomorrow, the first 60 seconds would likely include the three speedsters mentioned above near the front end of the race with the two favorites tucked neatly away mid-pack. It's a great mystery as to what happens next, but after Sunday, we should have a better idea about what should happen up to that point.

Discreetly Mine runs Saturday in the $750,000 Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) in his final prep for the Derby and appears the most likely to be leading the pack around the first turn of the 1-1/8 mile race - just as he did in winning the Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds Feb. 20.

If Discreetly Mine should have any early challengers, Wow Wow Wow and The Program are among the canidates.

Wow Wow Wow, trained by D. Wayne Lukas, led the grade 3 Gotham Stakes in New York through the first half-mile but faded badly to finish eighth. Although he has a trained nicely since, he is 30-1 in the Louisana Derby morning line.

Bob Baffert ships The Program in from California where he showed speed early in his career until he faded to fourth after leading the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) in December. Since then, it appears Baffert has wanted The Program to settle into more of a patient running style as show in his last race, finishing third behind Alphie's Bet in the Sham Stakes (gr. 3) at Santa Anita.

Should Discreetly Mine be allowed to run unchallenged again, that could mean trouble for Tony Dutrow trainee A Little Warm; and Pletcher's other entry, Drosslemeyer, the second and third choices on the morning line respectively and both stalkers.

In New Mexico, the undefeated Conveyance (right) looks to be in a similar boat with no other obvious front runners likely to get the early lead in the Sunland Derby if Baffert and jockey Martin Garcia want it for the 9-5 favorite.

Only two other runners in the Sunland Derby have gate-to-wire victories to their credit, and both were against maidens. Endorsement did so against maidens last time out at Oaklawn Park, and Tempted to Tapit the same at Aqueduct in the mud in January.

Several things stand out about Tempted to Tapit however, making him the 3-1 morning line second choice. He achieved a big 100 Beyer Speed Figure in that one-mile maiden race, then came back to run second to Discreetly Mine in the Risen Star. The son of Tapit breaks from the eleven hole Sunday however, possibly compromising his ability to get to the front.

Breaking from the six hole just inside Conveyance in the seven, Nacho Friend will have every opportunity to pressure whomever finds themselves in front. Third behind Awesome Act and Yawanna Twist in the Gotham, Nacho friend was forced to race four-wide after racing near the front in the early stages of that race. He has the talent to pressure and honest pace from Conveyance, but I'm sure trainer Kelly Breen would like to have some help from Tempted to Tapit or perhaps Classical Slew, 3rd in the San Vincente behind Sidney's Candy.

So I look for both Discreetly Mine and Conveyance to have big races this weekend, simply because both seem to have an pace advantage over their foes. Baffert is certainly not afraid to take a front runner to Kentucky having saddled wire-to-wire Derby winner War Emblem in 2002 and Pletcher, I'm sure, will take his first Derby win nearly any way he can get it. So I don't look for the running styles of either runner to change.

What I am looking for though, are more clues to that second minute mystery in Kentucky in May.