The Brock Talk

Friday, April 30, 2010

Kentucky Derby Wagering Strategies

When evaluating the wagering opportunities in the 2010 Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands, one fact stands out. The first two favorites have drawn perhaps the two most undesirable post positions: Lookin at Lucky at 3-1 in the morning line, has drawn post one; and Sidney's Candy (5-1) is on the far outside in hole no. 20. For many that will be plenty to keep either one off the top tier of their trifectas and superfectas and away from being keyed in multi-race bets like the Pick-4.

Despite the bad position, I'm betting that Lookin at Lucky has enough speed to avert most of the trouble. He should also get a little help from starting gate neighbor Ice Box, who is likely to be dropping behind him and create some additional room for Lucky. I have an aversion to picking favorites, but having said all that, Looking at Lucky appears to be a head above the rest of this field (excluding Sidney's Candy.)

Sidney's Candy will have even more speed to negotiate a good spot in the race and from the far outside, jockey Joe Talamo will have a good view from which to see his options. My concern for Sidney's Candy is the potential fast pace in the race and him getting caught in that likely speed duel - or worse - not being able to relax while being rated for the first time. I don't like throwing Sidney's Candy off the top tier of my selections and I expect him to be in the hunt when they turn for home. I'm just banking he's used enough energy during the first mile of the race to allow a late runner to come and get him sometime during the long Churchill Downs stretch.

So my other Kentucky Derby key horse is Awesome Act (photo), the third place finisher behind Eskendereya and Jackson Bend in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) and the winner of the Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) in March. Awesome Act stumbled badly in that race and lost a shoe at the start. He is a late runner who got caught behind a slow pace, is making his third start off of a lay-off and may improve enough to win the Run For The Roses. He is the "Wise Guy" horse (meaning he has been the talk of the Churchill Downs barn area) which is usually a bad sign in itself. But I cashed one of my biggest gambles when Blushing John threw a shoe in the 1989 Oaklawn Handicap then came back to win the Pimlico Special... so I have a thing for shoe throwing horses.

My super longshot is Backtalk at 50-1. By that, I don't mean to say he will win, but his love of mud, good turn of foot, excuse in the Illinois Derby after a prerace work went awry, and a solid and perhaps underrated trainer in Tom Amoss make him a logical horse to put into my exotics hoping for a bonanza.

With that in mind, here are some suggestions for Kentucky Derby tickets.

$1 Trifecta (32 Combonations) = Total Cost $32

$1 Trifecta (84 Combinations) Total Cost = $84

You may also have the option of wagering a 10-cent superfecta - one of my favorite new bets in racing. You get plenty of action at a relatively low cost with the possibility of a fairly big return on your investment.

$.10 Superfecta (420 Combinations) Total Cost = $42

Horses In My Kentucky Derby Wagers
1. Lookin at Lucky
3. Noble's Promise
7. American Lion
15. Line of David
16. Awesome Act
17. Dublin
18. Backtalk
20. Sidney's Candy

Comments, Morning Line Odds and Post Positions of every Kentucky Derby contender

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1 comment:

QQ said...

No ten-cent supers on Oaks and Derby Day. Churchill Downs site indicates that: "On Oaks Day and Derby Day the Superfecta is a $1.00 minimum wager."