Rebel Grads: The Champions and the Infamous

Although the Rebel Stakes (gr. 3) has produced two Kentucky Derby winners in Smarty Jones (photo) in 2004 and Sunny’s Halo in 1983, it has also produced other memorable winners of Triple Crown races and several champion 3-year-olds.

Last year trainer Bob Baffert brought champion 2-year-old Lookin at Lucky to Oaklawn Park for the 1-1/16 Rebel. Although he was not undefeated, having run a close second to Vale of York after a miserable trip in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) in his only loss, he was at the time, the star of the 3-year-old class. Lookin at Lucky had also won the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park since the Breeders’ Cup, so he came into Hot Springs, Ark., as the winter-book choice for the Kentucky Derby.

After being significantly cut-off nearing the far turn by Dublin and jockey Corey Nakatani as the even money favorite in the Rebel, Lookin at Lucky rallied to win by a head over Noble’s Promise in his 2010 debut.

Traffic problems continued to haunt Looking at Lucky through losses in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) and Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), but he was finally able to get a clear trip and won the Preakness Stakes. He would also go on to win the grade 1 Haskell Invitational and the grade 2 Indiana Derby on his way to being named Champion Three-Year-Old Male of 2010.

Three years earlier, Steve Asmussen brought Curlin to Oaklawn for the Rebel after breaking his maiden in his first start at Gulfstream Park in February. Curling would win the Rebel and the Arkansas Derby (gr. 2) and was second choice in the Derby. But he could only manage a third behind winner Street Sense and runner-up Hard Spun.

Curlin returned to win the Preakness Stakes before finishing second after a stretch-long duel with the filly Rags To Riches in the Belmont. Curlin then finished third in the Haskell in an upset by the ironically-named Any Given Saturday, but bounced back big to take the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) over Lawyer Ron, (winner of the 2006 Rebel). Curlin then went to Monmouth Park to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) and was named 2007 Horse of the Year as well as Champion Three-Year-Old Male.

Three years earlier trainer John Servis brought his undefeated 3-year-old colt Smarty Jones to Hot Springs to prepare for a run at the Kentucky Derby. Smarty Jones swept through Oaklawn taking the Southwest Stakes, Rebel and Arkansas Derby and went to gate at Churchill Downs as the post time favorite. He did not disappoint, becoming the first undefeated winner of the Kentucky Derby since Seattle Slew in 1977.

Smarty Jones then won the Preakness but his bid to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978 failed when he was defeated by Birdstone in the Belmont Stakes. Like Majestic Prince before him in 1969, Smarty Jones went into the Belmont undefeated, finished second and never raced again. But unlike Majestic Prince, Smarty Jones was awared the Eclipse Award for Champion Three-Year-Old Male.

One has to go back to 1980 to find the other Rebel graduate that went on to garner the champion 3-year-old title in Temperence Hill. Brought to Oaklawn by trainer Joseph B. Canty, Temperence Hill won the Arkansas Derby after the Rebel. But the trainer and owner John Ed Anthony decided to bypass the Derby and run instead in the Withers Stakes (gr. 3) at Aqueduct in New York, concerned that the colt needed some time to mature and overcome his laziness. Temperence Hill finished second in the Withers, missed the Preakness, then took the Belmont at odds of 43-1 over Kentucky Derby-winning filly Genuine Risk and Preakness winner Codex.

Temperence Hill would then win the Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Super Derby before he too would be named champion of his division that year.

Three years after Temperence Hill, Sunny's Halo (photo left) would win the Rebel, Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby of 1983. He finished sixth in the Preakness after reports of a sore ankle and skipped the Belmont. He would finish fourth in the Arlington Classic and missed the Queen's Plate (gr. 1) at Woodbine, again from the bothersome ankle. He ended his career winning the Super Derby by 12 lengths in track record time, before the nagging injuries ended his career.

Twelve years after Temperence Hill, owner John Ed Anthony returned to his native state of Arkansas with Pine Bluff in 1992. After Pine Bluff won the Rebel, he defeated Lil E.Tee in the Arkansas Derby but finished fifth behind him in the Derby. Pine Bluff avenged the loss in the Preakness, but could only manage a third in the Belmont behind A.P. Indy.

A more infamous Rebel graduate that also would go on to win the Belmont Stakes was Victory Gallop. After the Rebel, Victory Gallop defeated defending Horse of the Year Favorite Trick in the Arkansas Derby but could only muster two seconds to Real Quiet in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. But the 1-1/2 mile Belmont distance worked in Victory Gallop’s favor and he was able to deny Real Quiet his Triple Crown by catching him at the last moment to win the Belmont by a scant nose.

Saturday will be the 51st running of the Rebel Stakes and full gate of 13 has entered. Whether there is a future Derby, Preakness or Belmont winner in the bunch remains to be seen. But there is plenty of talent and plenty of stories in this group and somebody will eventually add to the lore that is Oaklawn Park's Rebel Stakes.

Click here for my Rebel Stakes Handicapping and Selections in ThoroFan.

And The Brocktalkscar Goes To...

Certainly nobody thinks that horse racing’s Eclipse Awards are anything in comparison to Hollywood’s Oscars, but one has to wonder what a $30 million production budget and six hours of live network coverage might do for our little party. The organizers for the Eclipse Awards could easily make up some ground - first, by getting Billy Crystal to host next year; and second, adding a few more awards to the show to Hollywood the event up a little bit. So in that spirit, I present to you the Brocktalkscars.

Best Set Design: Charles Cella in the Race for the Ages.
For almost two years, racing fans around the country yearned for west coast queen Zenyatta to race against east coast queen Rachel Alexandra. Before either mare started in 2010, Oaklawn Park president Charles Cella announced that he would increase the purse of the grade 1 Apple Blossom to $5 million if both Rachel and Zenyatta started. What made the offer so intriguing is that is was feasible as both mares had won at Oaklawn and both owners agreed to the concept. As it turned out however, Rachel Alexandra did not show, the purse was only $500,000 and Zenyatta got her 16th consecutive victory. But the stage had been set… and was designed so well.

Choreography: Zenyatta, in The Pre-Race Dance
If there has been a more entertaining, dominating or fascinating pre-race rituals by any other race horse in history, please let me know. Zenyatta would start bowing her neck and kick-stepping her front legs at times before she even arrived in the saddling enclosure. That would continue usually through the post parade after which she would start her side passing (or side rocking), routine with jockey Mike Smith often dangling he legs out of the stirrups. Zenyatta would also at times seem to wait at the starting gate for her challengers to arrive as if to say, “once you step in here, you’re mine.” It was almost as enjoyable as watching her run.

Make Up: The Brock Talk, with Mine That Bird
I spent a good part of last year on this blog making up reasons why I thought Mine That Bird would win his next race. That went over about as well as James Franco and Anne Hathaway.

Best Short Action Film: Calvin Borel in The Little Fighter
Best Short Animated Film: Calvin Borel in The Little Fighter
In one of perhaps the most compelling moments in post-race history, jockeys Calvin Borel and Javier Castellano started trading punches with ESPN cameras conducting post race interviews nearby. The two were quickly separated, but Borel remained in an animated cajun rage while relentlessly trying to get at Castellano. Borel was eventually escorted back to the jockeys’ quarters at Churchill Downs by half the jockey colony, a few security guards, agents, friends and whoever else who had become part of the posse.

Costume Design: Looking at Lucky in Kentucky Derby Prep Races
He had everything I tell ya. The looks. The Championship. He had that silver-haired trainer Bob Baffert who won three Kentucky Derbies. And he ran in the silks of Derby winning co-owner Michael Peagram. Those famous yellow and orange silks that remind us of Derby winner Real Quiet. And Lookin at Lucky had a jockey with the nickname “Go Go.” He had everything I tell ya. He looked exactly like a Derby winner.

Best Actor: Quality Road, in The Starting Gate
After impersonating Charlie Sheen before the start of the 2009 Breeders’ Cup in which he nearly destroyed the Santa Anita starting gate and crew, Quality Road went through 2010 like a perfect gentleman. In six starts during the year, Quality Road did not have a single cross look to or from an assistant starter. Quality Road never relapsed after winter starting gate rehab.

Best Actress: Lisa Norwood, in the Life at Ten Investigation
What has it been now? Nearly three months? And Kentucky Horse Racing Commission Lisa Norwood Exec. is still acting like there’s no hurry to find a resolution to the Life at Ten Case.

Best Director: Todd Pletcher, in Kentucky Derby Prep Races
Before the Kentucky Derby last year, trainer Todd Pletcher was loaded. His stable had won the Lexington Stakes, Wood Memorial, Louisiana Derby, Sam F. Davis, Fountain of Youth, and Risen Star Stakes. He eventually saddled five Derby horses of which perhaps his most talented 3-year-old, Eskendereya, was not a part; and a filly, Devil May Care was. While most trainers would envy having that armament, it did come with a ton of pressure (some based on his 0-24 Derby record) and at the very least, a challenge to manage successfully. In the end, Super Saver won the Derby for Pletcher while evicting the proverbial monkey at the same time.


Best Motion Picture: Breeders’ Cup Classic
As difficult as it was for some to accept that Zenyatta had lost, the Breeders’ Cup Classic of 2010 taken by Blame will go down in history as providing as much drama as any stretch run in the sport.

There you have it. The first edition of the Brocktalkscars. And we didn’t even run over into local news.

Returning Stars Help Fill Zenyatta Void

Zenyatta, as she always does – present or not – stole the show again Monday night at the Eclipse Awards held at the Fontainebleau Miami Beach Hotel ballroom in Florida as she was named Horse of the Year, and Champion Older Female. Her ownership, training, management and daily care team was also recognized with a Special Eclipse Award for managing her historic 2010 campaign and making her so accessible to her fans.

It was her third attempt at Horse of the Year after being a finalist in both 2008 when losing to Curlin and last year when Rachel Alexandra took home the golden Eclipse Award. At age six, she is the oldest Horse of Year honoree since Cigar in 1996. Only Exterminator in 1922, Kelso in 1964 (both age seven) and John Henry in 1984 at age nine, have been older. Zenyatta is only the 11th female to be named North American Horse of the Year since the award was first given to Hanover in 1887.

Although there were cries from the audience to owner Jerry Moss to “bring her back,” Moss assured the crowd and racing that she was very comfortable in her new home at Lane’s End Farm in Kentucky. Moss later told TVG’s Christine Olivares that no decision has yet been made on who Zenyatta will be bred to this year, but a decision will be coming soon.

There will be a large gap left in racing with the departure of Zenyatta, but there was much encouraging news from the camps of other Eclipse Award winners.

Shane Ryan of Castleton Lyons, the owner of the owner of Champion Male Turf Horse Gio Ponti, said they are “looking forward to 2011 [with Gio Ponti] and maybe we can get that Breeders’ Cup victory eventually.” Gio Ponti finished second to Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic and again second to Goldikova this year in the Breeder’s Cup Turf Mile.

Trainer Todd Pletcher accepted the Eclipse Award for Goldikova and mentioned that she will soon return to training and a possible run at her fourth consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile. Only ten horses have won two Breeders’ Cup races.

Perhaps the best rivalry of 2009 came from the 3-year-old filly division headed by Eclipse Award winner Blind Luck. The other two divisional finalist, Evening Jewel and Havre de Grace, each finished second twice behind Blind Luck. Evening Jewel lost by a nose both times. Havre de Grace lost by a nose and a neck but came back to defeat Blind Luck in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes.

Facing older mares for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, Blind Luck was second and Havre de Grace third behind winner Unrivaled Bell.

But the good news is that all three, Blind Luck, Evening Jewel and Havre de Grace, will be back again in 2011 to resume their rivalries.

Even in the long term, there seems to be promise. Michael Repole, owner of Champion 2-Year-Old Male Uncle Mo directed some of his acceptance speech comments directly to racing fans saying, “If Uncle Mo lives up to my dreams, I promise you. he will live up to yours.” While Uncle Mo has the rugged trail to and possibly through the Triple Crown season ahead of him, here’s hoping Repole was hinting that early retirement of his promising star would not be in the plans if the success continues for Uncle Mo.

Of course the financial incentives once offered by the breeding industry to entice early retirement are certainly not at the level they were some five or ten years ago. The most expensive stallions to retire this year are Blame, Lookin at Lucky and Quality Road, all with $35,000 stud fees. It has not been that long since those caliber of horses stood in the $50,000 - $75,000 range and at times higher.

Last year Blame won $3.7 million on the track and will have to breed 108 mares this season to match that income. However, approaching that number will be no challenge, even in the current economic environment in the breeding industry.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver will have to breed just 85 mares at his 2011 stud fee of $20,000 to reach his 2010 income of $1.7 million while Lookin at Lucky will have to breed just 58 mares at $35,000 each to reach his more than $2 million in earnings last year.

For fillies and mares, the numbers are much more defining. Zenyatta made $1.2 million last year and more than $7.4 million in her three year racing career. Any significant earning potential as a broodmare for her is more than two years away in the summer yearling sales. Although it is doubtful owners Jerry and Ann Moss have any concern about her current earning power.

Last year Blind Luck made some $1.7 million on the track, so there is little financial incentive from the breeders to entice her off the race track and into retirement or for her current owners to switch careers.

Whether it is the lull in the breeding industry economics or a genuine commitment to fans that keeps more thoroughbred stars on the track, I’m not sure there is a clear cut answer – as naïve as that may seem. But for the time, I am grateful we have so many of last year’s Eclipse Award winners coming back 2012. With the departure of Zenyatta, we going to need all of them.

Zenyatta Not Haunting Away Challengers

Although we are nearing Halloween, the big, bad mare out of Southern California is not scarring anybody away from meeting her in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs. With the connections of 2009 Champion Older Male Gio Ponti saying they are keeping their options open for a repeat in the Classic; and Dale Romans, trainer of 3-year-old turf star Paddy O’Prado, more definite about pointing toward the $5 million race, there are as many as 15 possible contenders lining up to take on the undefeated Zenyatta.

Under the conditions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the field will be restricted to 14 starters. Should more than 14 horses enter, the Breeders’ Cup uses a system to rank the entrants in order of preference based upon (1) performance in Breeders' Cup Challenge Races, (2) a point system, and (3) the judgment of a panel of racing experts. The field selection system will be implemented as necessary following the taking of pre-entries on Oct. 25.

Gio Ponti (right), who is expected to also pre-enter into the $2 Breeders’ Cup Mile on the turf, split horses at the top of the stretch and opened up daylight on last year’s Classic field before being run down in the final 110 yards by Zenyatta. Also honored last year as the Champion Turf Male, Gio Ponti has six career grade 1 wins on grass including the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., Oct. 9. But the 5-year-old has never raced on natural dirt. Last year the Breeders’ Cup Classic was run over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita in Southern California while Churchill Downs has a natural dirt surface.

Similarly, Praddy O’Prado has more recently been thought of as a turf specialist winning four graded races including the grade 1T Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park near Chicago. But he also ran a very credible third over the Churchill Downs main track in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands giving trainer Dale Romans the confidence to return Paddy O’Prado to the main track in Louisville.

There is even a rare invasion from the Land of Rising Sun. Looking to become the first Japanese-based horse to win and only the fifth to start in a Breeders’ Cup race, Espoir City (left) arrived Tuesday at Churchill Downs after a long flight from Tokyo via Chicago. Last year, Espoir City won the prestigious Japan Cup Dirt and is considered to be Japan’s top rated thoroughbred on dirt with career earnings of nearly $6 million. In his last start Oct. 11, he was second in the Nambu Hai Mile in his first race in five months in what has been termed “strictly a preparation for the big race (Classic)” according to his trainer. “We have been training him looking ahead to the next big race,” said his trainer, Akio Adachi, a former jockey, in comments provided by Nobu Furuta, the administrative manager of Japan Racing Association’s New York-area office.

Of course there are the other big contenders being trained for the Breeders’ Cup Classic including multiple grade 1 winners Quality Road, Lookin at Lucky and Blame as well as Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Haynesfield, Monmouth Cup (gr. 2) winner Etched and Pennsylvania Derby (gr. 2) morning line.

It’s not like a large field in the Breeders’ Cup Classic is a rare occurrence. The race has averaged 11.62 starters in the previous 26 runnings with six of those featuring full fields of 14. In the last 20 versions, only the 1997 and 2007 Classics had less than 10 starters and both of those races had nine go to post. Multi-million dollar purses will have that effect on entries.

It will be interesting to see just how many show up at Churchill Downs in a few weeks to take their shot at Zenyatta. It appears the trend towards many may continue.

Lucky Answers In Haskell Create More Questions

No doubt that IZOD Haskell Invitational winner Lookin at Lucky stepped to the head of the 3-year-old class with his impressive run in the $1,000,000 race Sunday at Monmouth Park. The question is: Where will he run next? The most obvious option would be to stay on the East Coast and make his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the $1 million Travers Stakes (gr. 1) Aug. 28. Another option is for trainer Bob Baffert to return to the West Coast with Lookin at Lucky and race against older horses in the $1 million Pacific Classic (gr. 1) at Del Mar the same day. There is even speculation on philly.com Daily News that the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (gr. 2) at Philadelphia Park September 25 may be a possibility.

My money is on the Travers for a number of different reasons.

First, the Travers is run a natural dirt main track at Saratoga. With the ultimate goal for Lookin at Lucky now being the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, also on a natural dirt surface, the Travers would provide the better preparation from strictly a surface standpoint. But with Lookin at Lucky having won 8 career races at 6 different tracks from ProRride to Poly-track to natural dirt from Southern California to Arkansas, Maryland and now New Jersey, it appears he can carry his racetrack with him anywhere.

With many competitors from the Haskell plus Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) winner A Little Warm expected to be going to the Travers, the fan pressure will be on owners Mike Pegram (photo), Karl Watson and Paul Weitman to send Lookin at Lucky to the Travers. The fans usually don’t have much influence in these decisions however. But prestige does and despite both races being grade 1s, the Travers has the history and the prestige.

The Travers also has the attention of the thoroughbred breeders in Kentucky. There is little doubt a Travers win has a bigger influence on a stallion’s post race value compared to the Pacific Classic. And a horse can run in million dollar races for years and never accumulate enough purse money to approach their stallion value. Especially with a horse like Lookin at Lucky who already has a classic victory in the Preakness and a 2-year-old championship on his resume as well as attractive bloodlines being by the successful stallion Smart Strike who stands for $75,000 per live foal Lane's End in Versailles, Kentucky.

Lookin at Lucky is now the leader of the 3-year-old division, but has by no means wrapped up the title as Champion 3-Year-Old. A win in what looks to be a light Pacific Classic would do little to enhance those chances if Super Saver were to win the Travers. Or if Super Saver lost the Travers then came back to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Lookin at Lucky would be hard pressed to even be considered without a Travers win. Don’t scoff too hard at Super Saver having a big day at Churchill Downs again without knowing what the chances of rain might be in Louisville on November 6.

One thing is for sure however. And that is the Haskell seemed to be Lookin at Lucky’s coming out party. Anybody that is going to catch him is going to have to show some of that same transformative improvement that can happen to 3-year-olds this time of year. Trappe Shot (photo), Super Saver and maybe A Little Warm seem to be likely candidates now. I’m afraid First Dude will not benefit from the 1-1/4 mile distance of the Travers and Classic. Ice Box should benefit from the distance, but will need to find that kick he had in Florida and Kentucky to have chance of taking advantage. The Monmouth Park race track was certainly not conducive to his late running style, so there’s a bit of an excuse there too.

But no matter the potential, excuse or misfortunes of those left in Lookin at Lucky’s wake in the Haskell, as least they know which direction to point their guns. Now let’s see if Baffert gives them a shot before the Breeders’ Cup.

Lookin at Four in the Haskell

The $1 million IZOD Haskell Invitational of 2010 has certainly met the challenge of attaining the standard set by the previous best versions of the 1-1/8 mile, grade 1, race. Won last year by Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra over eventual Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or Gelding Summer Bird and the site of one of epic battles of the 1980s when Alysheba tried valiantly to run down his Triple Crown nemisis Bet Twice in ’87 and failed, this year’s Haskell Invitational features nearly every top 3-year-old male in training.

The race features the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands in Super Saver and Ice Box respectively and the top two finishers in the Preakness in winner Lookin at Lucky and second-place finisher First Dude. Only the Belmont Stakes is lightly represented with the winner Drosselmeyer on the sideline due to a minor injury and runner-up Fly Down running the previous day at Saratoga in the grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes.

Because of the success of the Elite Summer Season at Monmouth Park and preponderance of some of the nation’s top stables running at the New Jersey track, this Haskell Invitational also brings the most legitimate winner of the local prep race (the Longbranch Stakes on in Trappe Shot, installed as the morning line co-second choice at 3-1.

Only horse racing can produce the irony of one of the best versions of the Haskell Invitational during a year when GAHP (Generally Accepted Handicapping Principals – I was an accounting major in college) have defined this crop of sophomores as mediocre at best.

And with that being said – let’s pick a winner. My comments in post position order.

1. Lookin at Lucky (Martin Garcia) – The morning line favorite at 5-2 odds is, in my opinion, the most logical winner. Whether one can bet on him at 5-2 is the question. He has a knack for trouble when he gets too far behind and young jockey Martin Garcia is likely to receive instructions from trainer Bob Baffert to stay engaged with the leaders. Baffert, who has won the Haskell three times with Point Given (2001), War Emblem (2002) and Roman Ruler in 2005, knows that closers have a difficult time getting to the winner’s circle in the Haskell. His 1-5 favorite Point Given won while overcoming the biggest deficit at the half-mile pole in the last ten runnings of the Haskell at 4 lengths. Point Given won by a half-length over 13-1 shot Touch Tone and 7-1 choice Burning Roma. In other words: stay close.

2. Afleet Again (Joe Bravo) – Not even the best 3-year-old colt named “Afleet” to have run at Monmouth Park this year having lost to Afleet Express in the grade 3 Pegasus June 19. Breaking from the 2 post will help him improve off of his last two wide trips at Monmouth Park as will local leading jockey Joe Bravo. But he’ll need a bigger boost than that to have an impact on this field.

3. Ice Box (Jose Lezcano) – The winner of the Florida Derby, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and the favorite in the Belmont Stakes. Trouble in Kentucky and a bad day in New York kept this Nick Zito trainee from a Triple Crown credential. Needs a fast pace to run down and still belongs to the mysterious, riddle-wrapped enigma club of this class. Recent Haskell history is also against him from a pace standpoint. See comments on Point Given.

4. First Dude (Ramon Dominguez) – If speed is what you need to win the Haskell Invitational than nobody comes more prepared than 6-1 morning line choice First Dude. If the Preakness and Belmont are 1-1/8 miles, you may be looking at the winner of both races. But the Preakness is a sixteenth of a mile and the Belmont three furlongs longer. The Haskell is not. It is exactly 1-1/8 miles and it may be exactly the distance for perennial second and third fiddle First Dude.

5. Our Dark Knight (Elvis Trujillo) – The Rabbit. Owned by Robert V. LaPuenta and trained by Nick Zito, Our Dark Knight has apparently been entered into the Haskell to insure an honest pace for the connection’s stable star Ice Box. Look for this allowance race winner to shoot to the lead in an effort to disrupt any possibility of a slow pace by First Dude – then fade into the dark night that is the Haskell also rans.

6. Super Saver (Calvin Borel) – Ice Box has nothing on this guy in the mysterious enigma department. The Kentucky Derby winner flopped in the Preakness running eighth and had previous trouble living up to his juvenile expectations before the run for the roses. His Kentucky Derby was a dream trip, which jockey Calvin Borel is more than capable of delivering Sunday. It was also on a sloppy track. There is also a chance of a sloppy track Sunday at Momouth Park. Super Saver has every ability to capitalize on both. I’ll pass at 3-1 morning line odds but will definitely have him in my exotics.

7. Uptowncharlybrown (Rajiv Maragh) – The horse that runs for the memory of late trainer Alan Seewald had one of those unexplainable mishaps in the Belmont Stakes
while running fifth, just three lengths off of winner Drosselmeyer. During the running of the race, the saddle pad carrying the additional weight necessary to give jockey Rajiv Maragh the needed 126 pounds of assigned weight, slipped completely out from under the securing girth straps and fell to the track. One can only assume that, despite carrying some ten pounds or so less weight to the finish line, the balance and effectiveness of Maragh was compromised. Uptowncharlybrown and Maragh will have to be closer to lead in the Haskell than they usually like so the pace circumstances may be too big of an obstacle to overcome for the win. But don’t leave him out of your exactas.

8. Trappe Shot (Alan Garcia) – If you are a Beyer Speed Figure disciple then this Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is an attention getter. In his last two starts (in the ungraded Longbranch Stakes at Monmouth and an allowance race at Belmont Park) he has registered 105 Beyer numbers in both races. The next best Beyer in the Haskell field is Super Saver and his 104 in the Derby and Lookin at Lucky with a 102 in the Preakness. Neither them nor anybody else in the Haskell has two triple digit Beyer numbers on their resume. He also has the speed to win the Haskell, never laying more than 1-1/2 lengths of the leader in any of his last four consecutive victories. It’s a big jump in class from the Longbranch to the Haskell and no horse has ever accomplished the double. So despite his Beyer credentials, I’m leaving him to my exotics.

Selections: 1-4-3

Haskell Has Skins As Eclipse Award Barometer

With a stellar and competitive field assembling on the Jersey shore for the $1 million IZOD Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) Sunday, perhaps the best bet of the race will be that the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or Gelding of 2010 will come out of Monmouth Park’s marquee event.

In a Triple Crown that saw no horse win more than one race and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) winner Drosselmeyer on the sidelines through August, there is no clear cut favorite for 3-year-old championship title.

The $1 million Haskell at 1-1/8 miles is expected to feature Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands winner Super Saver (top photo), Preakness (gr. 1) winner Lookin at Lucky, Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box and First Dude, second in the Preakness. So other than Drosselmeyer and Belmont second-place finisher Fly Down, who is headed for the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) Saturday at Saratoga, the current 3-year-old crop is well represented in the Haskell.

There are also a slew of other Haskell contenders that could still be champion honorees with potential wins left this year in the Travers Stakes (gr. 1) later in August at Saratoga and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs November 5. A late season hot streak by Uptowncharlybown or Trappe Shot would give them credentials to at least enter the discussion.

History also makes a pretty good case for the Haskell producing a divisional champion. In the previous 42 runnings of the race, 15 Haskell starters have gone to become the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or Gelding, two have been named Champion 3-Year-Old Filly; and five of those 17 have been named Horse of the Year at year’s end.

The 2009 Haskell would go on to produce the most decorated group as winner Rachel Alexandra became the Champion 3-Year-Old Filly and Horse of the Year while Summer Bird, second to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell, was named the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt.

Serena’s Song in 1995, is the only other filly to win the Haskell Invitational and she was also given the Eclipse Award that year as the Champion 3-Year-Old Filly.

Champion production has been going one for nearly 40 years in Haskell going back to 1974 when Kentucky Derby winner Little Current went on to become Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or gelding after finishing second to Holding Pattern in the Haskell. A year later, Wajima won the Haskell and the championship.

In 1983, Slew O’Gold won the Champion 3-Year-Old male title after finishing sixth in the Haskell behind Preakness winner Deputed Testamony. Two years later Spend A Buck became the first future Horse of the Year to start in the Haskell, finishing second to Skip Trial at Monmouth Park.

In 1994 Holy Bull won the Horse of the Year and divisional honors after winning the Haskell but it was the decade of the oughts when Eclipse Award winners began coming off the Haskell assembly line. From 2001 through last year, seven Haskell starters have been named divisional champions including and Point Given (2001) (photo right), Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra all also received the gold trophy for Horse of the Year.

Big Brown (2008), Funny Cide (2003) and War Emblem (2002), all Kentucky Derby winners, were the other divisional champions from the decade along with Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra. Big Brown and War Emblem were also Haskell winners while Funny Cide was third behind the speedy Peace Rule at Monmouth Park.

So this year’s Haskell Invitational, like most, is more than just a rematch of some Triple Crown contenders, locals and late bloomers. It is perhaps a pre-cursor to the road to championship.

Trappe Set For Haskell And Other Good News

It was a pretty good weekend for racing fans. Gio Ponti (photo, right), the 2009 Champion Turf Horse, put a halt to his losing streak by winning the grade 1 Man o’War Stakes at Belmont Park and 3-year-old starlet Blind Luck took the Delaware Oaks (gr. 2) over a sloppy track.

Looking ahead, we have Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) winner Sidney’s Candy leading the contenders into Saturday’s Swaps Stakes (gr. 2) at Hollywood Park and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said Blind Luck is headed to Saratoga for the Alabama (gr. 1). The August 21 Alabama may be one of the more anticipated races during the Spa meeing with other major league 3-year-old fillies such as Mother Goose (gr. 1) winner Devil May Care and Prioress Stakes (gr. 1) winner Franny Freud also headed to Saratoga.

Trainer Bob Baffert saw his Preakness winner Luckin at Lucky work Saturday at Santa Anita covering six furlongs in 1:12.60. As reported in Daily Racing Form, Lookin at Lucky suffered a minor setback following the Preakness with a fever, but Baffert said they are back on track for the $1 million Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) August 1 at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands winner Super Saver is also training for the Haskell in Todd Pletcher’s barn as well as sentimental favorite Uptowncharlybrown and Preakness runner-up First Dude.

First Dude will also bring sentimental support to the Haskell as owner Jack Dizney as pledged 1% of his graded stakes earnings to the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation, the industry’s leading veterinary research organization.

However, the sophomore class of 2009 took a hit this weekend when trainer Bill Mott said Belmont winner Drosselmeyer will take a break from training for at least 60 days due to a foot concern. It is conceivable Drosselmeyer could return in time for the Breeders’ Cup, but it will likely be his first start after the long vacation presenting a large hurdle in front of an already daunting task. If the Breeders’ Cup Classic features Zenyatta, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra and a late blooming 3-year-old star or two, it becomes a worse option and a doubtful path for Drosselmeyer and his connections.


One of those potential late blooming 3-year-old made an appearance this weekend at Monmouth Park. Trappe Shot (photo left) looked very impressive winning the $175,000 Long Branch Stakes, the local preparation for the Haskell. In his first start around two turns, Trappe Shot stopped the clock in 1:43.48 for the 1 1/16 miles. It was also good enough to earn him his second consecutive 105 Beyer Speed Figure having also achieved that number in a June 5 allowance victory at Belmont Park.

Super Saver (Kentucky Derby, 104) and Lookin at Lucky (Preakness, 102) have only achieved triple-digit Beyer numbers once to help put Trappe Shot’s two recent races into perspective. In any event, Trappe Shot may be one of the most exciting new challengers to Triple Crown winners in the Haskell since Lost Code took on Derby and Preakness winner Alysheba and Belmont winner Bet Twice in 1987.

But perhaps some of the best news we heard this weekend was regarding the recovery of Global Hunter. Just a few strides after winning the American Handicap (gr. 2T) at Hollywood Park July 4, Global Hunter dislocated his right front fetlock, a life-threatening injury for a thoroughbred.

However, he was rushed to Alamo Pintado Medical Center in Los Olivos, Calif where he underwent four hours of surgery the following day according to Bloodhorse.com. Trainer A.C. Avila told Bloodhorse that a plate and 16 screws were inserted to stabilize and repair the joint and Global Hunter is currently “doing fantastic.”
Best news of all.

Triple Crown Runners Beginning to Roll Again

It is now more than two weeks since the conclusion of the Triple Crown and more than seven weeks since we have seen many of the horses that started only in the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands. Four of the contenders from the Derby-Preakness-Belmont trail returned to the races recently, while others are beginning more serious preparations for the next start.

This may not be the flashiest group of 3-year-olds, but they do have depth in their ranks as evidenced Saturday in the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup won by Paddy O'Prado. The Dale Romans trainee was a troubled third in the Derby and sixth in the Preakness and was perhaps returning to his preferred turf racing surface in the Colonial, but his three-length win in the 1-3/16-mile race was a notable none-the-less.

Paddy O'Prado may be making his next start in the Virginia Derby July 17.

Noble's Promise, was recently shipped to Great Britian for the prestigious Royal Ascot meeting and made a good show as the lone American in the St. James Palace Stakes (Eng-1). He broke sharply in the July 15 St. James, set the pace throughout the grassy one mile race but was passed in the final strides by eventual winner Canford Cliffs, a multiple grade 1 winner in Europe. Noble's Promise hung on to finish fifth, beaten just three lengths.

Also fifth in the Kentucky Derby, Noble's Promise suffered slight dehydration that day and was given the extra time to recover by trainer Ken McPeek before traveling to Great Britian for the St. James Palace.

It was two solid races by two also rans in a much maligned group of Triple Crown contenders. Paddy O'Prado impressively won against marginal competition. Noble's Promise ran a very respectable race half way around the world, in a totally unfamiliar environment of Royal Ascot, against the European elites. Neither Paddy O'Prado nor Noble's Promise turned many heads or stopped any presses. But they both ran the kind of races that we may come to expect from this group - solid.

Granted, Jackson Bend (12th in the Derby and 3rd in the Preakness) and Schoolyard Dreams (9th in the Preakness) fell far below the solid standard finishing fifth and sixth in the six-horse Pegasus Stakes (gr. 3) Sunday at Monmouth Park, but the class may be firing some of their bigger guns again later this summer.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver (photo top) worked Sunday morning at Belmont Park in preparation for his next scheduled race, the $1 million Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) to be run Aug. 1 at Monmouth Park. The work was a leisurely four furlongs (1/2 mile) in 50.66, just slower than a similar move earlier in the morning by stablemate and Suburban Handicap (gr. 1) winner Quality Road, who stopped the clock in 50.26 over the same distance.

After the work, trainer Todd Pletcher told NY Daily News sports writer Jerry Bossert "It was a maintenance half for both. We're still a ways away from their next races."

Drosselmeyer, the winner of the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1), has yet to go through any serious work since taking the Test of Champions more than two weeks ago. Trainer Bill Mott said following the Belmont that the Travers Stakes will be the targeted next start for Drosselmeyer.

Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky recorded his third workout since winning in Baltimore. He recently breezed four furlongs over the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita in :47.40. Baffert said they continue to point Lookin at Lucky toward the Haskell or the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) July 31 at Saratoga.

Sidney's Candy, The winner of the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) returned to Southern California after his disappointing 17th finish the Kentucky Derby. He was given a brief vacation and has two recent works in preparation for the July 17 Swaps Stakes (gr. 2) at Hollywood Park including a recent six furlong bullet work (fastest work at that distance that morning) 1:11.60 with jockey Joe Talamo aboard.

Kentucky Derby runner-up and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) favorite Ice Box had a bad day in the third leg of the Triple Crown. He displaced his palate and the hot and humid conditions adversely effected him as well. Trainer Nick Zito has said the Travers Stakes (gr. 1) on Aug. 27 at Saratoga is the next planned start for Ice Box.

Horses such as American Lion (11th in the Kentucky Derby), First Dude (2nd, Preakness; 3rd, Belmont), Game on Dude (4th, Belmont) Make Music For Me (4th, Derby; 10th Belmont) and others may be coming back to the races in the coming weeks and months as well.

I doubt any of them are going to be scaring Quality Road, Blame or Rail Bird anytime soon either. But they seem well suited to give us plenty of solid and enjoyable races.

Be Careful What You Wish For? Not So Much Perhaps.

Nearly half way through 2010, it is an interesting time to evaluate how the year is going for thoroughbred racing and the fans. The Triple Crown is now complete, Zenyatta (photo, right) and Rachel Alexandra have both raced multiple times as has 2009 stars Quality Road, Gio Ponti, Blink Luck, Lookin at Lucky, Goldikova among others.

While the stars and the sport have had some setbacks, it appears we are doing pretty well getting what we might have wished.

The two obvious drawbacks so far in 2010, are that we have not seen the Rachel Alexandra versus Zenyatta dream race we all have been wishing for. Nor did this crop of 3-year-olds provide much of a Triple Crown. I'm sure Rachel Alexandra's two losses to start the year had a damper on a wish list or two, but that will be addressed later.

With the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands, the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes and all the races leading up to the Triple Crown in the Spring, the 3-year-olds are the natural stars each year. Things were looking up for the group in late April when Eskendereya was coming into the Derby as the heavy favorite with eye-catching victories in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in Florida and Wood Memorial in New York. Meanwhile, 2009 Champion 2-Year-Old Looking at Lucky had lost some of his luster with a series of hard-luck performances, one of which resulted in a third place finish in the Santa Anita Derby just prior to going to Kentucky.

Eskendereya suffered a career ending injury before the Derby and Looking at Lucky again endured traffic problems in the Derby and finished sixth. Derby winner Super Saver came back to run a dull eighth in the Preakness behind a rebounding victory by Lookin at Lucky, but neither went on to the Belmont Stakes. Belmont favorite Ice Box threw a clunker in New York while the somewhat miscellaneous Drosselmeyer took the third leg of the Triple Crown.

Regarding Zenyatta, it is important to remember that at the end of last year, the Champion Older Female and Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. 1) winner was in the middle of a retirement tour. What we have instead from the undefeated mare is three more grade 1 wins in 2010 and a significant historical event in racing.

Her third win the Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park last week, gave her 17 straight wins and moved Zenyatta past Citation, Cigar, and Mister Frisky for the most consecutive wins in modern times in races not restricted to state-breds.

If you had asked most in January if they would have rather have a Triple Crown winner or an undefeated Zenyatta with the record in hand in mid-June, I'm sure many would take Zenyatta and her last three races. There is an opportunity for a Triple Crown winner every year, however difficult the challenge may be. But a Zenyatta comes along once in a generation.

Rachel Alexandra, on the other hand, has not quite had the same year in terms of meeting expectations. The 2009 Horse of the Year lost her first two starts in 2010 at Fair Grounds in New Orleans and then again at Churchill Downs. Although she bounced back to win the Fleur de Lis (gr. 2) Saturday while showing signs of her old self, the two defeats against seemingly sub-par competition had fans speculating about her retirement and wishing she was the Rachel Alexandra of 2009.

TVG Network's The Finish Line however, produced an interesting graphic that shows a different take on her first few races of this year. When comparing her Beyer Speed Figures from 2010 to her first starts last year, they are almost identical. And a case can be made that her competition in the New Orleans Ladies and La Troienne (gr. 2) was much stiffer than what she faced last year in the first six months. And Rachel Alexandra was carrying three to four pounds more in her 2010 starts comparatively speaking.



So if you were wishing that Rachel Alexandra would have a similar year this year compared to last, you may be getting what you wished. In fact, the argument can be made that she may be on track for perhaps an even better year in 2010. The list of great race mares that stumbled at some point in their career only to go on to further greatness is a long one indeed.

Paseana finished second in her first two starts of 1993. Six graded wins would follow during her career. Heavenly Prize was second in the '94 Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. 1) and the '95 ungraded Oaklawn Park Breeders' Cup Handicap before rattling off four consecutive grade 1 wins. There are plenty of more dramatic losing streaks in the past performances of other great race mares - a sorority in which Rachel Alexandra already belongs.

Gio Ponti, the Champion Male Turf Horse of 2009, has been a bit of a disappointed this year, but he may be suffering effects of an aggressive effort to get him to and return from the taxing Dubai World Cup (gr. 1) in March. Gio Ponti began the year with a very disappointing second in the ungraded Tampa Bay Stakes then traveled halfway around the world to run in the $10 million Dubai World Cup in which he ran a credible fourth over an unfamiliar Tapeta racing surface.

The strain the Dubai journey can put on a North American thoroughbred has been well documented, so his second in the grade 1 Manhattan at Belmont Park June 5 can easily be forgiven. Two seconds and a fourth do little to convince that Gio Ponti has no chance returning to some resemblance of his 2009 form.

Champion 2-Year-Old Filly She Be Wild was injured just before the Kentucky Oaks, but her nemesis, Blind Luck, continued to fly the banner for the strong class of fillies by winning the Oaks instead.

Champion 3-Year-old Male Summer Bird, Champion Sprinter Kodiak Kowboy and Champion Female Sprinter Indian Blessing are also in retirement. But the majority of last year’s class of champions and stars have returned and are still running six months into 2010.

Certainly Quality Road, Mine That Bird, Musket Man and Rachel Alexandra are carrying the torch of a sophomore class much criticized throughout last year. Quality Road just won the Metropolitan Mile (gr. 1) after a record-breaking performance the Donn Handicap (gr. I) in February at Gulfstream Park – a race in which he broke his own 1-1/8 mile track record that he set in the 2009 Florida Derby (gr. I).
While Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird has yet to start this year, he looks to be training well after being moved to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. After several impressive works at Churchill Downs, Lukas has modified his ambitions above an allowance race return for Mine That Bird and now says he is Whitney Handicap (gr. 1) bound in early August at Saratoga.

Despite our wishes and hopes as the year began, I'm not sure we could have expected much more out of the class of 2009 to return and impact racing more than they have this year. And, though the 2010 3-year-old male crop appears to be marginal at best, they did deliver some the best television ratings for horse racing in recent memory for the Kentucky Derby and solid numbers in the Preakness as well. They are a slow group, but they seem to have some charisma and their mediocrity appears to have produced at least a somewhat popular level of competition. Remember, the year is not even 50% complete. That leaves more than six months for a star to appear ala late 3-year-old bloomers and Breeders' Cup Classic winners Proud Truth, Concern or Tiznow.

And if not - I'd say we're still doing pretty good with our wish list.

Neither Paradise Nor Bust, Horse Racing Presses On

Thoroughbred racing in North America is a vast industry that spans all three countries, including every state in the United States whether the home of tracks, breeders, owners and horsemen, management, manufacturing, service, agriculture or fans and gamblers. So whether you're elated by the Medaglia d' Oro filly that sold for a Maryland record $650,000 last week or prepared to take arms against the closing of Saratoga, be aware that all is not lost nor are we paradise bound.

The Triple Crown Bad News
The 2010 Triple Crown has never had much star quality momentum since the injury and departure of Fountain of Youth (gr. 2) and Wood Memorial (gr. 1) winner Eskendereya (photo right). Even before that, Looking at Lucky, who was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby throughout most of the winter, never got untracked barely winning a troubled Rebel Stakes (gr. 3), and unlucky losses in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver provided plenty of star potential coming from the barn of Todd Pletcher and having the services of public favorite Calvin Borel, but that team flattened out in the Preakness and will now skip the Belmont.

To make matters worse for racing fans, Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky will also skip the Belmont and instead be pointed toward the grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in New Jersey on August 1. So we are left with a Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) without a Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner for the first time since 2006.

The Triple Crown Good News
The NBC telecast of the Kentucky Derby was the highest in 18 years and eclipsed the 2009 Derby telecast that was the highest in 20 years. The 10.3 overnight rating and 23 share mean that nearly one in four television sets turned on Saturday afternoon were tuned into the Kentucky Derby. In terms of comparison to other major league sports on tv, the Derby ratings were higher than the final game of the 2009 World Series, the 2009 NBA Championship final game and the Stanley Cup finals in the NHL.

While the television ratings for the Preakness fell nearly 20% from a year ago, that Preakness was bolstered by the presence of the filly Rachel Alexandra and was among the highest rated Preakness telecasts in two decades. Even with the drop in comparison to last year, the Preakness ratings were still higher than the 2008 telecast and NBC reported that the combined ratings for the two telecasts results in the highest numbers of any consecutive horse telecasts since 1989.

More Good News To Triple Crown Bad News
While the 3-year-old crop of 2010 has yet to develop a horse with much star power, the older horse division is perhaps as loaded with stars as any year in decades.

Zenyatta continues to run into the racing history books and living rooms of America with every race as she continues to add to her now undefeated record in 16 career starts. While 2009 Horse of Year Rachel Alexandra has stumbled a bit in two close losses this year, there is no doubt she will draw attention and crowds when she makes here next start. Should Rachel Alexandra develop any resemblance of her 2009 form and eventually meet Zenyatta, the race will be a significant historical event in racing.

Just below the two superstars looms the popular Quality Road, winner of the 2009 Florida Derby (gr. 1) and undefeated in two starts this year; Summer Bird, the first horse in 20 years to win Belmont, Travers (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1); and Rail Trip on the West coast, who looked impressive while winning the Mervyn LeRoy (gr. 2)in preparation for his defense of the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. 1) title.

Closings on the Coasts?
For at least the last two years, Hollywood Park near Los Angeles has ended a race meet with little or no assurance that it would not be the last. In July 2005, Churchill Downs sold the track to the Bay Meadows Land Company for $260 million in cash. Under the terms of the deal, the company was to continue thoroughbred racing at Hollywood Park for at least three years and longer if favorable gaming legislation was passed in California. Five years later, there are no slots at California race tracks, Hollywood Park Race Track is still running and the Hollywood Park Tomorrow retail, commercial and residential development is still just a plan.

Across town at Santa Anita, owner Magna Entertainment appears to have survived a bankruptcy in their Roman racetrack empire that has spanned to Texas, Maryland, Michigan and various points in between. Now parent company Magna International Development has told the Oak Tree Racing Association, which has leased Santa Anita since 1969 for their non-profit Fall meeting, that they are reneging on a previous agreement and want to void the lease. But California neighbors Hollywood Park and Del Mar near San Diego quickly told Oak Tree officials they are welcome to run the meeting at their tracks. MID blinked and is expected to resume negotiations with Oak Tree Officials.

MID chief executive officer Dennis Mills has a standing offer to play poker at the Sheridan house any time. He wouldn’t last an hour at the same table as my wife.

On the East coast, New York Racing Association president and CEO Charlie Hayward said Monday that cash problems must be resolved with the state or they will not have the funds to continue the Belmont Park meeting past the Belmont Stakes nor open Saratoga. Due to a $17 million shortfall from the New York Off-Track Betting Corp., NYRA, which operates Belmont Park, Saratoga and Aqueduct race tracks, has hit a cash crisis with devastating potential.

Although New York governor David Paterson and various state legislators have pledged not to allow racing to halt in New York, those same politicians have been working nine years to approve a slot operator and allow Video Lottery Terminals to be installed at Aqueduct. Slot revenues are expected to be a large benefit to the NYRA and state bottom line just as it has in other racing jurisdictions where slots have been allowed at tracks.

East Coast Good News
Saturday, Monmouth Park will open perhaps the most anticipated racing season in their 64-year history, offering $1 million per day in purses and attracting some of the top stables from New York, California and Kentucky. The 50-day summer meet is part of a plan that has sliced live thoroughbred racing days in New Jersey to 71 total and eliminating the thoroughbred season at the Meadowlands.

The season will feature racing predominantly on a Friday through Sunday basis in an effort to boost attendance and handle at the track to subsidize the large purses. Management is also counting on full fields and 11 and 12-race cards that are likely to become more attractive to the thoroughbred players across the country.

The racing industry has for years clamored for the "less racing/larger fields" strategy to be implemented in racing jurisdictions throughout the country. But the risk of potential lost revenue due to lost racing dates has been too large for managements and states before the Monmouth experiment begins this week.

Bad Economy Blasts Breeders Too
According to Bloodhorse.com, fees for advertised stallion may have fallen as much as 25% in 2009 and the 2010 season may be even worse for stallion owners and breeders. Gross sales at public auctions in North America fell from $972 million in 2008 to $659 million a year later, a decrease of some 32%. Lost revenues at sales directly and adversely affect studs fees, in particular the summer yearling market.

But the sales markets are showing signs of improvement in the early months of 2010 which will have a positive impact on stallion fees should the trend continue.

One of the leading early economic indicators for public auctions are the success of two-year-old in training sales held by public auction houses Barretts, Fasig-Tipton, Keeneland, and the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. While gross sales at these auctions have decreased at many of the sales, the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training Monday in Maryland saw horses sold and gross revenue increase 7.9% and 23%, respectively, from a year ago.

One segment of the industry that has done well throughout the 2-year-old season are pin-hookers. (those that purchase yearlings at summer auctions with the express intent of reselling them in 2-year-old-in-training sales the following spring.) The rate of return on investment for most pin-hookers this year has more than doubled into the 70% range according to bloodhorse.com, giving plenty of hope to the yearling market later this summer.

Good yearling sales means improved stud fees and hopefully the recovery of yet another thoroughbred racing segment from the depths of this latest recession.

Preakness Stakes, Thoughts, Comments and Questions

Any questions as to where the racing gremlins may have moved when they vacated the Baffert barn? I don't know if they moved in the family and furniture, but they were sure aboard the D. Wayne Lukas trainees for the first 110 yards of the Preakness. Dublin, starting from the outside 12 post in the Preakness, broke so far to the right that jockey Garrett Gomez spent the first 50 yards of the race keeping Dublin, first out of the Pimlico gift shop and second, from running over the track outrider stationed on the outside of the track. Northern Giant stumbled at the start and also broke to the right from the four hole and quickly took a hard bump from Yuwanna Twist to his outside. By the time jockey Terry Thompson had Northern Giant back on stride, Pleasant Prince came in front of him from the two-hole and he was quickly bumped again by Yuwanna Twist and shuffled back before the field had traveld a 1/16th of a mile out of the gate... The longest drought in Triple Crown history now continues at 32 years - seven years longer than the previous record of 25 years between Triple Crown winners Citation (1948) and Secretariat (1973)... With trainers Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher saying neither Lookin at Lucky nor Super Saver are headed for the Belmont, it will be the first time since 2006 the Belmont Stakes will not feature a Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner, the year Barbaro won the Derby and Bernardini won the Preakness. Jazil (right) won the 2006 Belmont after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby and skipping the Preakness... Make Music for Me was fourth in the Derby this year and skipped the Preakness if you want an insignificant fun fact... My thoughts at the top of the Preakness stretch: "Oh darn Super Saver is done. Wow it looks like Lookin at Lucky might win it! What the hell is First Dude still doing there?"... Don't even ask me who I like in the Belmont Stakes for a while.

Zenyatta In Dodger Blue
A prominent billboard advertising the Los Angeles Dodgers located near Hollywood Park features the undefeated mare Zenyatta. The billboard is part of an advertising campaign of the major league team featuring several famous Los Angelenos and is located on the corner of Hawthorne Blvd. and 106th street... Trainer John Shirreffs was overheard on TVG this weekend to say that Zenyatta is still being pointed toward the grade 1 Vanity Stakes at Hollywood Park. The 1-1/8 Vanity will feature a $250,000 purse for fillies and mares Sunday, June 13.

"Doc" Allred Resigns At Los Alamitos
Dr. Edward Allred, a mainstay in the Quarter Horse racing industry and widely considered to be instrumental in the saving Los Alamitos in the early 1990s, has resigned as the track's President and Chairman of the Board. Allred was quoted in Bloodhorse.com as saying "This decision is not based on health considerations, as I am doing well,” Allred said. “I will continue to have a very active role on the board of directors. It is on the execution of the day-to-day details and matters that I will not be involved." A statement his succession in power seems to vindicate. Longtime associate Cathy Monji has been appointed by Allred to be the new track President and serve on the board of directors while Rick English will take over as Board Chairman.

Allred still breeds and raises top-notch Quarter Horses at his Rolling A Ranch in Atascadero, California. Allred has won AQHA’s Champion Breeder title nine times and the Champion Owner award six times. In the 1990s, he led all owners in number of victories eight times, and has topped all breeders in wins from 1992 through 2004. In 2004, horses bred by Allred won 111 races and 14 stakes races while earning $1,575,685.

Preakness Betting Strategy: Bet The Obvious

The odds of any horse having significant trouble in four consecutive races have got be something famous mathematician Steven Hawking would calculate. In other words, they have to be very high. And that's what I'm banking on by staying on the Lookin at Lucky band wagon and making him my top pick in the 135th running of the Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) Saturday at Pimlico Race Course. How much of a detrimental effect all of that bumping has had on Lookin at Lucky, plus the rider change from future Hall of Famer Garrett Gomez to the 20-year-old Martin Garcia, are all legitimate questions, but I'm still all aboard the Baffert express for at least one more race.

Super Saver appeared to fall in line with what is widely considered to be a sub-par 3-year-old crop of 2010 until his victory in the biggest dance of all the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1). Yes, he had the benefit of one of the few to have a good trip around the Churchill Downs oval in the Derby, but I'm going to have to trust trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Calvin Borel in their profession that Super Saver has greatly improved since his previous losses in the Tampa Bay (gr. 3) and Arkansas (gr. 1) Derbies. Super Saver's 104 Beyer Speed figure in the Derby also lends credibility to their statements.

Simplistic as it may seem, I see this as two-horse race and I'll have a good old fashioned $10 7-8 exacta box in the Preakness.

I'm going to run a few $1 trifectas to back up my exacta with a 7-All-8 and a 8-All-7 for $20 and hope I get a longshot to get up and split my exacta should that happen.

It's not the most adventurous betting strategy in the world, and quite frankly one in which I've left my favorite adverse comfort zone. But sometimes one just has to bet what looks to be the obvious.

Preakness Field Taking Shape as Face of Triple Crown Changes

The day before entries are taken for the grade 1 Preakness Stakes, the field has been whittled down to 13 probable starters.

The field for the 1-3/16 mile Preakness (1/16 of a mile shorter than the Kentucky Derby) appears to have attracted five returnees from the Run for the Roses including the winner Super Saver, Paddy O'Prado (3rd), Lookin at Lucky (5th), Dublin (7th) and Jackson Bend (12th). The Preakness is also expected to feature the top three finishers from the Derby Trial (gr. 3) run at Churchill Downs April 24 including Hurricane Ike (1st), Aikenite (2nd) and third-place finisher Pleasant Prince.

Among the other Triple Crown invaders are Schoolyard Dreams, fourth in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1); Caracortado, fourth in the Santa Anita Derby; Northern Giant, ninth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1), First Dude, third in the grade 1 Blue Grass and Yawanna Twist, second in the Illionois Derby.

Perhaps the most significant development among the Derby horses is the jockey change for Lookin at Lucky. Following a series of unlucky mishaps going back to the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) in November, trainer Bob Baffert is expected to name Martin Garcia to ride Lookin at Lucky after releiving jockey Garrett Gomez of the riding assignment aboard the Kentucky Derby morning line favorite.

That allowed Gomez to pursue other opportunities in the Preakness and trainer D. Wayne Lukas quickly made the move to replace jockey Terry Thompson with Gomez on Dublin.

The last Kentucky Derby starter to survive a rider change and win the Preakness was Louis Quatorze in 1996. After finishing 16th in the Kentucky Derby with Chris Antley aboard, trainer Nick Zito made the change to Pat Day and won the Preakness.

That year Pat Day was also the last rider to win the Preakness in consecutive years having won on Timber Country the year before. This year, Calvin Borel will try to match that feat after winning the Preakness last year on Rachel Alexandra.

Borel is still far from matching Day's five Preakness wins which is second only to Eddie Arcaro's six Preakness wins.

It also happened just four years earlier when trainer Thomas Bohannan replaced Craig Perrett on Pine Bluff after finishing fifth in the Derby. Two weeks later, Pine Bluff came back to win the Preakness with Chris McCarron aboard.

Other than the 20 horses in the last 50 years to win both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Derby third-place finishers have faired the best among the others with eight Preakness wins.

Derby show horses to win the Preakness include Curlin in 2007, Afleet Alex ('05), Timber Country ('95), Risen Star ('88), Elocusionist ('76), Damascus ('67), Tom Rolphe ('65) and Candy Spots in 1963. Paddy O'Prado was third in this year's Kentucky Derby.

The 2010 Preakness will have a very different look from the Derby this year in terms of pace as well. While the Kentucky Derby was loaded with speedsters such as Conveyance, Sidney's Candy and Discreetly Mine to name a few, the Preakness is void of any prominent front runner. In fact, Super Saver is the only contender to have a wire-to-wire victory on his resume having won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November gate-to-finish as well as his maiden win at Belmont at a mile in September.

In fact, only three Preakness contenders have won this year after having the lead as early as the half-mile pole. Hurricane Ike won the Derby Trial after leading going into the final turn; Northern Giant broke his maiden by 11 lengths in February at Oaklawn Park after taking the lead down the backstretch; and First Dude also broke his maiden after leading with a 1/2 mile to go at Gulfstream Park in January.

It is also assumed that Baffert is going to Garcia on Lookin at Lucky in an effort to see him more engaged early. While it is doubtful Garcia will race Lookin at Lucky to the front as he did on Conveyance in the Derby, there are questions as to just how fast the young rider will want to go in the Preakness.

The Unluckiest of Luckys.
BP Oil executives have contacted Lookin at Lucky today asking what he knows about things getting shut off... Federal investigators are now saying that we're fortunate the Times Square bomber got his fertilizer from Lookin at Lucky... Lookin at Lucky has been getting plenty of fan mail lately. Breeding farms are writing to say their mares have headaches... Pedigree Humor: On Mother's Day, Private Feeling appealed to the Jockey Club for additional DNA testing... Lookin at Lucky's flight to Baltimore was delayed when the pilot learned the biggest bomb in racing was on board... When Baffert fired jockey Garrett Gomez, Lookin at Lucky asked for a second opinion. Baffert said, "Alright. You're also slow."

Trophy Trivia
Created by Tiffany and Company in 1860 as a trophy for the now defunct Woodlawn Racing Association, the Woodlawn Vase is presented each year to the owner of the Preakness owner. An assessment in 1983 of $1 million easily makes its silver design the most valuable trophy in American sports. Until 1953, winners were awarded possession of the vase until the following Preakness. That all changed when A. G. Vanderbilt’s Native Dancer won it but his wife did not want to take on the immense responsibility of the vase’s safekeeping. Now the winning owner is awarded a $30,000 sterling replica on a permanent basis while the perpetual is on display at The Baltimore Museum of Art and brought to Pimlico under guard for the annual running of the Preakness.

Baffert Made The Right Decision With Jockey Gomez

More often than not, I'm the last in line to criticize jockeys. Their split-second decisions under potentially deadly conditions simply fall into the "How do they do that?" chapter in my book. Jockey feelings aside, I am just as cautious in my support of most rider changes on good horses. Circumstances are sometimes the doom of a relationship between jockey and a given horse. And to make a rider change in the pressure cooking environment during the five weeks of the Triple Crown, to me, sounds like a risky venture at best and an all out panic or childish blame by the owner and/or trainer at worst.

But in the case of trainer Bob Baffert dimplomaticlly telling Lookin at Lucky's jockey Garrett Gomez that he should perhaps "find another mount in the Preakness", the move seems justified. Kindly saying he just wanted to change the luck of the horse and that there was nothing Gomez could have done from the one hole in Derby, Baffert and owner Karl Watson, Paul Weitman and Mike Pegram must have seen the same thing many of us saw during the the first 100 yards of the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands in which Lookin at Lucky began losing any chance to win.

Just out of the gate, Lookin at Lucky broke well along the rail. As expected Ice Box dropped back from the two hole while Noble's Promise broke from the three and Calvin Borel and Super Saver broke from the four. Within a few strides, Borel began steering Super Saver toward the rail, crowding Noble's Promise, who crowded Lookin at Lucky who was forced to check.

With Noble's Promise and Super Saver in front of him, Gomez had no place go with Lookin at Lucky as the field began to converge toward the inside rail as the field passed by the twin spires for the first time. By the time Stately Victor, a closer who broke from the six post, again slammed Lookin at Lucky into the rail, again forcing him further back still, the Kentucky Derby was all but over for the Lucky camp.

Before the Kentucky Derby Baffert acknowledged the challenge Gomez would have from the inside post, saying he was going to have to ride a super race early to overcome the impending traffic. But while Calvin Borel was able to clear the trouble from just three gates further out - and even strategically causing the first problems for Looking at Lucky with his quick dash for the rail - Gomez was not able to gun Lookin at Lucky out of trouble and has now paid the price for it.

Saturday Ron Anderson, the agent for Gomez, confirmed that they would not ride Lookin at Lucky in the Preakness and would instead by aboard Dublin for trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Baffert is reportedly considering jockey Martin Garcia to take over the riding assignment aboard Lookin at Lucky. Garcia, who rides regularly for Baffert and just won the Lone Star Derby (gr. 3) for Baffert Saturday, also rode Conveyance to a 15th-place finish in the Derby for the Baffert team.

Garcia is said to be more aggressive than Gomez as exhibited in the Derby, and is very good at getting horses to engage early on in a race.

Derby Winner Puts In Final Work At Churchill
Going to the track for his only serious work before the Preakness Stakes Saturday, Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver breezed three furlongs at Churchill Downs in :36.60 with Calvin Borel aboard. After the work, Borel allowed Super Saver to gallop around the turn and was clocked in a well-paced 1:02 for five-eighths of a mile.

Trainer Todd Pletcher was very pleased with the effort by Borel and Super Saver telling Daily Racing Form that he wanted, "an easy three-eighths and gallop out an easy half. It's amazing how effortless the horse was in doing it."

I assume the work fits well into Borel's plans to win the Triple Crown with Super Saver.

Other Preakness contenders to work Monday included the D.Wayne Lukas pair of Dublin and Northern Giant. Dublin, with jockey Garrett Gomez aboard, worked a half-mile in 48.40 while Northern Giant went three-eighths of a mile in 36.40. Derby Trial (gr. 3) winner Hurricane Ike took jockey Robby Alabarado seven furlongs in 1:25.80 and Yawanna Twist went five furlongs in 1:01.60.

Rachel Alexandra Also Works
Rachel Alexandra, the 2009 Horse of Year who has finished a close second in her only two starts this year, also made the Monday work tab at Churchill Downs. In her first work since her defeat in the Le Troienne Stakes (gr. 2) April 30 at Churchill, Rachel Alexandra went an easy half-mile in :52 seconds. Trainer Steve Asmussen said no decision has been made as to her next start.

Kentucky Derby Wagering Strategies

When evaluating the wagering opportunities in the 2010 Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands, one fact stands out. The first two favorites have drawn perhaps the two most undesirable post positions: Lookin at Lucky at 3-1 in the morning line, has drawn post one; and Sidney's Candy (5-1) is on the far outside in hole no. 20. For many that will be plenty to keep either one off the top tier of their trifectas and superfectas and away from being keyed in multi-race bets like the Pick-4.

Despite the bad position, I'm betting that Lookin at Lucky has enough speed to avert most of the trouble. He should also get a little help from starting gate neighbor Ice Box, who is likely to be dropping behind him and create some additional room for Lucky. I have an aversion to picking favorites, but having said all that, Looking at Lucky appears to be a head above the rest of this field (excluding Sidney's Candy.)

Sidney's Candy will have even more speed to negotiate a good spot in the race and from the far outside, jockey Joe Talamo will have a good view from which to see his options. My concern for Sidney's Candy is the potential fast pace in the race and him getting caught in that likely speed duel - or worse - not being able to relax while being rated for the first time. I don't like throwing Sidney's Candy off the top tier of my selections and I expect him to be in the hunt when they turn for home. I'm just banking he's used enough energy during the first mile of the race to allow a late runner to come and get him sometime during the long Churchill Downs stretch.


So my other Kentucky Derby key horse is Awesome Act (photo), the third place finisher behind Eskendereya and Jackson Bend in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) and the winner of the Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) in March. Awesome Act stumbled badly in that race and lost a shoe at the start. He is a late runner who got caught behind a slow pace, is making his third start off of a lay-off and may improve enough to win the Run For The Roses. He is the "Wise Guy" horse (meaning he has been the talk of the Churchill Downs barn area) which is usually a bad sign in itself. But I cashed one of my biggest gambles when Blushing John threw a shoe in the 1989 Oaklawn Handicap then came back to win the Pimlico Special... so I have a thing for shoe throwing horses.

My super longshot is Backtalk at 50-1. By that, I don't mean to say he will win, but his love of mud, good turn of foot, excuse in the Illinois Derby after a prerace work went awry, and a solid and perhaps underrated trainer in Tom Amoss make him a logical horse to put into my exotics hoping for a bonanza.

With that in mind, here are some suggestions for Kentucky Derby tickets.

$1 Trifecta (32 Combonations) = Total Cost $32
1-16
1-3-7-14-20
1-3-7-14-18-20

$1 Trifecta (84 Combinations) Total Cost = $84
1-16
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20

You may also have the option of wagering a 10-cent superfecta - one of my favorite new bets in racing. You get plenty of action at a relatively low cost with the possibility of a fairly big return on your investment.

$.10 Superfecta (420 Combinations) Total Cost = $42
1-16
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20
1-3-7-15-16-17-18-20

Horses In My Kentucky Derby Wagers
1. Lookin at Lucky
3. Noble's Promise
7. American Lion
15. Line of David
16. Awesome Act
17. Dublin
18. Backtalk
20. Sidney's Candy

Comments, Morning Line Odds and Post Positions of every Kentucky Derby contender

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