The Brock Talk

Friday, May 6, 2011

The Brock Talk Kentucky Derby Picks

Its time to step up to the plate and swing away at the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Here’s my picks.

#13 – Mucho Macho Man: Has been among the most consistent and competitive this year while technically racing at a young age. While all thoroughbreds birthday is officially January 1, Mucho Macho Man wasn’t born until June. Which means he may be just primed to blossom. He finished fourth behind Dialed In in January, then won the Risen Star (gr. 3) in February before losing a shoe in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) and finishing third behind Pants On Fire and Nehro. Six-week lay-off is a concern but he has the speed and post position to negotiate away from most traffic and into contention at the top of the stretch.
#8 – Dialed In: There is much to like about the Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner who also won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) over Mucho Macho Man in January. Seemed to have an undisclosed hiccup in his training in February, but was impressive in winning the Fla. Derby on a track favoring speed. Will have to negotiate traffic around the far turn with his late kick, but a relatively clean trip and he will be very dangerous. Three of last four Kentucky Derby winners have trained at Palm Meadows during the winter where trainer Nick Zito had trained Dialed In until last week.
#19 – Nehro: Don’t worry about the post position because this Steve Asmussen trainee is a closer as well. Second in the Louisiana Derby after traffic problems then a hard charging second, just missing to Archarcharch in Arkansas Derby (gr. 1). Sire Mineshaft won two grade 1 races at this distance, so the 1-1/4 miles should not be a problem. Like other closer Dialed In, traffic may be the problem late while trying to pass tired horses and catch others doing much better on the front. Another son of Mineshaft, so he should have plenty in the tank down the long Churchill Downs stretch.
#1 – Archarcharch: Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) winner took it on the chin drawing the #1 post, but then got a little lucky with the closest speed horses (Decisive Moment) breaking from post five. So he should have time and room to pull back and let the wave hit the rail in front of him in first 1/2 mile. With luck, he’ll also be at the back of the pack early, but a more forward than Dialed In and Nehro. Also won the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn, but was still let go at 25-1 in the Ark. Derby. Should be a good price Saturday in Kentucky as well.

Trifecta Ticket
8-13
1-6-8-13-15-19
1-6-8-13-15-16-19
60 Combinations, $1 Trifecta costs $60

2 comments:

Diana said...

Great summary!!

Brock Sheridan said...

Thanks Diana. It's going to be a fun Derby to watch, but difficult to decipher.