Look For A Macho Preakness

If we have learned one thing from the 3-year-old Thoroughbred class of 2011, is that they are full of surprises. They might not be that talented compared to other classes of years past either. That's two things.

Therefore, it is difficult to interpret the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) victory by Animal Kingdom two weeks ago. Is Animal Kingdom a horse that has suddenly blossomed into a world-class race horse and is to dominate this mediocre class? Or is he the beneficiary of this year's trend - a horse peaking in a given grade 1 race only to regress and disappoint in their next start.

Certainly Animal Kingdom can be the former. He can win the Preakness, the Belmont and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. I’m just going to have to bet against it.

The Kentucky Derby was by far his best career race and that obviously sets up for a negative bounce in the Preakness. Even if he drops off only slightly in his Preakness performance, odds are that somebody else in the 14-horse field will step up and perhaps have their career best day. That, after all, does seem to be the pattern for this group.

So where does that leave us in terms of finding a winner? The connections behind Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro have passed on the Preakness in favor of a rest and relaxation for their well-traveled star in place of firing their best shot at the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in three weeks. But third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man and fourth-place speedster Shackleford will be a Pimlico Saturday to make another run at the Derby champion. Dialed In, eighth in the Derby as the favorite; and Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude (the 16th-place finisher in Kentucky are also making another run Animal Kingdom.

There weren’t many excuses for those who chased Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby. It was one of the cleanest run Kentucky Derbies in quite some time. But my top choice in the Preakness may have had a more subtle reason for not being at his best on the first Saturday in May.

Mucho Macho Man found himself in perfect stalking position in the early part of the Kentucky Derby as jockey Rajiv Maraj had him placed four to five lengths behind frontrunner Shackleford down the backside. The son of Macho Uno made what looked like a potentially winning move around the far turn, but was five wide and may have covered too much extra ground by the time he had a clear shot at the finish line. Instead of accelerating and passing Shackleford at the top of the stretch, he seemed to not have quite enough to close the victory. The six weeks between his previous start in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Kentucky may have had something to do with that as well.

My second pick in the Preakness did not run in the Kentucky Derby, but that was not because of any decision by his owner or trainer. The connections behind Sway Away had every intention of running in the Run for the Roses but fell just short on eligibility. The top 20 Derby entrants in terms of earnings in graded stakes races get a slot in the Churchill Downs starting gate. Sway Away was ranked 21st among those wanting to run in Kentucky. But he qualified for the Preakness and may be a good bet with his 15-1 morning line odds.

Sway Away first caught my attention in February when he was a fast closing second behind the speedy The Factor in the seven furlong San Vincente Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita. The Factor, a speedster, had many advantages that day, not the least of which was the short distance. It seemed that Sway Away would benefit from the extra distance of races ahead on the Triple Crown trail.

The Jeff Bonde trained Sway Away would have that chance in his next start, 1-1/16th mile Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park. But Sway Away looked to have no interest in racing that day as he was fractious at the gate and just as uneasy in the early part of the race. He he finished sixth, nearly 10 lengths behind The Factor.

In his next race, new jockey Pat Valenzuela kept him much closer to the leaders in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) and it momentarily looked like the correct strategy. Sway Away took the lead at the top of the stretch would eventually finish fourth behind Archarcharch, Nehro and Dance City.

Two important things have happened since Arkansas Derby that makes Sway Away attractive in the Preakness. First, the Arkansas Derby has developed into perhaps the most significant race leading up to the Kentucky Derby making it a "key race" in handicapping parlance. Second-place finisher Nehro was also second in the Derby and fifth-place finisher Alternation just won the grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, the major local prep for the grade 1 Belmont Stakes.

A rider change from the aggressive Pat Valenzuela in the Arkansas Derby to the more patient Garret Gomez in the Preakness should also benefit Sway Away in the Preakness. Laying further back in Baltimore should allow Sway Away to use his energy much more efficiently and perhaps have much more in the tank down the stretch and improve to an in-the-money performance if not better.

Animal Kingdom should be credited with a few accomplishments in the Kentucky Derby that make him a legitimate Triple Crown threat. He came from off the pace and reeled in the front runners in a race run at tepid pace and advantageous to those who lead early in the classic contest. But Animal Kingdom still had enough acceleration to overcome the leaders and that is a valuable commodity to any race horse at this level. A duplication of that effort will probably not be defeated at Pimlico. He seems to be improving with every race – regardless of the surface having won on artificial and dirt and finishing second on turf in his last three races – and don’t underestimate his little win over 18 rivals on the first Saturday in May. Right now Animal Kingdom looks the best. But that has been the case for many this year that have disappointed in their next race.

Dialed In has taken the role of Preakness favorite away from Animal Kingdom in the early wagering despite his eighth-place finish in Kentucky. Trainer Nick Zito suffered the frustration of watching the slowest Kentucky Derby pace since 1947 as his come-from-behind Dialed In languished even further back than normal during the first six furlongs in the Derby. The Florida Derby winning Dialed In still managed to pass eleven horses before the finish line, but was unable to overcome the adversity of trying to catch the front runners who had managed to slow the early running to nearly a crawl. Dialed In should benefit from a faster pace in the Preakness but will again have plenty of horses to pass from his customary last place early running style.

The other long shot that may have some potential to make an impact is Mr. Commons. After finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby behind Midnight Interlude, the son of Artie Schiller was not considered for the Kentucky Derby because of a lack of earnings in graded stake races. Mr. Commons has plenty of tactical speed to allow jockey Victor Espinoza to lay close if necessary or just off the pace. Mr. Commons breaks from the far outside 14 post position, but will have plenty of time and room before the first turn forces him into an uncomfortable running position. Ultra-conservative trainer John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame does not send horses across the country from his base at Hollywood Park unless he thinks he has a horse that can fire a major bullet.

The Brock Talk’s Preakness Picks
1- #9 Mucho Macho Man
2- #7 Sway Away
3- #11 Animal Kingdom
Longshot: #14 Mr. Commons.

Animal Kingdom Gallops Into Preakness. Asmussen Not Sure On Nehro

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom will likely face a full field of challengers in the Preakness (gr. I) as it appears that at least 14 are pointing toward the second leg of the Triple Crown.

It will be the first time the Preakness starting gate will be filled with 14 starters since 2005 when 50-1 Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby. Prior to that, it was in 1992 when the Preakness last featured a full field. That year the Kentucky Derby was won by 16-1 shot Lil E. Tee with Casual Lies (29-1) second and Dance Floor (33-1). This year, Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby at 20-1 with 8-1 Nehro second and Mucho Macho Man (9-1) third.

The full 14-horse field does not concern Graham Motion, trainer of Animal Kingdom, who told the Preakness notes team that he is just hoping for a good post position.

Although the gate is expected to be full for the Preakness, the field has not yet been set in stone. Trainer Steve Asmussen and owner Ahmed Zayat have said they will make a decision Tuesday as to whether Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehor will go in the Preakness after watching him work a half-mile in :50-4/5 over a sloppy Churchill Downs track Monday the two

Nehro was second in his three previous races, the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) March 26, the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) April 16 and the May 7 Kentucky Derby so the Preakness would be the colt’s fourth start in just eight weeks. “He’s done a lot over a short period of time,” Asmussen said. “I think you’re trying to evaluate the runs, the races themselves and how he’s doing, while also trying to weigh the opportunity that is ahead of you.” Asmussen and Zayat are pondering whether to save Nehro and his come-from-behind running style for the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes or go this week in the Preakness.

If Nehro is not entered into the Preakness, that would make way for Isn’t He Perfect, most recently fifth in the Jerome.

Amsussen also worked Astrology a half-mile Monday at Churchill Downs. Considered a definite for the Preakness, Astrology covered the work in :50.60. Like his stable mate Nehro, Astrology also has three seconds in his last three starts going back to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) in November. After overcoming an illness this winter in Southern California, Astrology was also a runner-up in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) March 27 and the Jerome (gr. II) at Belmont Park April 23.

Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In is also set the Preakness after finishing eighth in the Kentucky Derby. Dialed In encountered two problems during the Run for the Roses which give his supporters plenty of hope in the Preakness. After being pinched back at the start, Dialed In found himself unusually far back from pace setter Shackleford. Hence, Dialed In’s second problem. Shackleford was able to slow the pace of the Kentucky Derby to a pedestrian pace while setting the slowest half-mile fractional time (:48.63) since 1947 making it even more difficult for the come-from-behind running style of Dialed In. “You just can’t win in those situations, but he came with his run,” trainer Nick Zito said. “It was probably the best eighth-place finish in Kentucky Derby history.”

Should Dialed In win the Preakness, it will be a $6.1 million payday for him. Dialed In won the Florida Derby (gr. I) at sister track Gulfstream Park fulfilling the first part of the 5.5 Bonus set up by the Magna Corporation. Should Dialed In also win the Preakness, he would earn the $5.5 million bonus to be added to $600,000 winner’s share of the Preakness should the son of Mineshaft win.

Sway Away, who just missed becoming eligible for the Kentucky Derby with his 21st rank in graded earnings, is set for the Preakness and hoping to follow in the footsteps of some of his family. Sway Away is the son of 2005 Preakness winner Afleet Alex and his dam is a daughter of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and granddaughter of 1990 Preakness winner Summer Squall.

The Brock Talk Kentucky Derby Picks

Its time to step up to the plate and swing away at the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Here’s my picks.

#13 – Mucho Macho Man: Has been among the most consistent and competitive this year while technically racing at a young age. While all thoroughbreds birthday is officially January 1, Mucho Macho Man wasn’t born until June. Which means he may be just primed to blossom. He finished fourth behind Dialed In in January, then won the Risen Star (gr. 3) in February before losing a shoe in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) and finishing third behind Pants On Fire and Nehro. Six-week lay-off is a concern but he has the speed and post position to negotiate away from most traffic and into contention at the top of the stretch.
#8 – Dialed In: There is much to like about the Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner who also won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) over Mucho Macho Man in January. Seemed to have an undisclosed hiccup in his training in February, but was impressive in winning the Fla. Derby on a track favoring speed. Will have to negotiate traffic around the far turn with his late kick, but a relatively clean trip and he will be very dangerous. Three of last four Kentucky Derby winners have trained at Palm Meadows during the winter where trainer Nick Zito had trained Dialed In until last week.
#19 – Nehro: Don’t worry about the post position because this Steve Asmussen trainee is a closer as well. Second in the Louisiana Derby after traffic problems then a hard charging second, just missing to Archarcharch in Arkansas Derby (gr. 1). Sire Mineshaft won two grade 1 races at this distance, so the 1-1/4 miles should not be a problem. Like other closer Dialed In, traffic may be the problem late while trying to pass tired horses and catch others doing much better on the front. Another son of Mineshaft, so he should have plenty in the tank down the long Churchill Downs stretch.
#1 – Archarcharch: Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) winner took it on the chin drawing the #1 post, but then got a little lucky with the closest speed horses (Decisive Moment) breaking from post five. So he should have time and room to pull back and let the wave hit the rail in front of him in first 1/2 mile. With luck, he’ll also be at the back of the pack early, but a more forward than Dialed In and Nehro. Also won the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn, but was still let go at 25-1 in the Ark. Derby. Should be a good price Saturday in Kentucky as well.

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History May Help Find A Kentucky Derby Winner

The group of 3-year-old colts contesting this year’s Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) is a puzzling one indeed and will present a tall task to those who will try to handicap them and find a winner. Dialed In and Archarcharch are the only two starters with more than one graded stakes victory this year. Dialed In won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) in February and the Florida Derby in (gr. 1) April 3 – both at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. Archarcharch won Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) in February and the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) April 16.

Derby contenders Watch Me Go paid $89.40 in winning the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2); Twice the Appeal paid $53.20 to win the Sunland Derby (gr. 3) and Midnight Interlude returned $29.80 to his supporters in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Archarcharch paid $31.00 in the Southwest and $52.40 to win the Arkansas Derby.

The search for that extra bit of information that may be the breakthrough tidbit of handicapping insight is a difficult one indeed. If you believe history repeats itself, then perhaps a look back at where other Kentucky Derby winners came from will be of some aid.

Among all of the Kentucky Derby prep races, the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. 1) at Keeneland has produced the most winners of the Run for the Roses with 23. However, since Polytrack was installed on the main track at Keeneland in 2006, only Street Sense in 2007 had run in the Blue Grass,(finishing second to Dominican), before going on to win the Derby. Of the 23 horses that came out of the Blue Grass to win the Derby, only 11 were winners of the Blue Grass as well. The last to win both races was Strike the Gold in 1991.

The Blue Grass stats speak well for three potential starters in the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, May 7, including Blue Grass winner Brilliant Speed, runner-up Twinspired and Santiva, who as the 2-1 favorite finished ninth. Twinspired is hoping to follow in the footsteps of seven Blue Grass place finishers that would go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Don’t fret too much for Santiva either. Derby winners Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder Gulch (1995) were both unplaced in the Blue Grass before they hit the Churchill Downs winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.

The Florida Derby has produced the second-most Kentucky Derby winners with 21, including two of the last four and three during the oughts decade. Barabaro (photo) won the Florida-Kentucky Derby double in 2006 and Big Brown achieved the same in 2008. Nine years ago, Monarchos won both the Florida and Kentucky Derbies in 2001 but sqeezed in a second behind Congaree in the Wood Memorial between the two wins. A dozen of the 21 Kentucky Derby winners who had raced in the Florida Derby won both races including Thunder Gulch in 1995. Like Monarchos, after Florida, Thunder Gulch raced again before going to Churchill Downs – finishing fourth in the Blue Grass.

This year, Dialed In won the Florida Derby in a close finish over long shot Shackleford. Both are probable starters in the Kentucky Derby along with Soldat, who finished fifth in the Florida Derby as the 3-2 favorite.

New York’s main prep race has also produced its share of Kentucky Derby winners with 20 of them coming out of the Wood Memorial. The last two Derby winners to come out of the Aqueduct prep race were Funny Cide in 2003 and Monarchos. Like Monarchos, Funny Cide also finished second in the Wood Memorial, but that was the final prep race for the New York-bred gelding. The highly regarded Empire Make defeated Funny Cide on his way to becoming the favorite in Kentucky, but Funny Cide turned the tables in Kentucky, winning by 1-1/4 lengths ahead of Empire Maker in second.

The last six years, however, the road to the Kentucky Derby has been a rough one for winners of the Wood Memorial. Bellamy Road won the 2005 Wood by 14-1/2 lengths and was headed to favoritism in Kentucky before he was withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby due to injury. I Want Revenge (2009) and Eskendereya (2010) followed eerily similar paths after their Wood wins, also scratched due to injuries in the days before being the Kentucky Derby favorites.

Toby’s Corner, winner of the Wood Memorial this year, will not have to worry about that curse as he will not be the favorite in Kentucky. Uncle Mo, third in the Wood this year as the 1-10 favorite, is hoping to follow in the footsteps of the great Secretariat who got the show spot in the 1973 Wood before going on to Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and fame beyond.

Next on the list of prep races producing the most Kentucky Derby winners are the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) with 15 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) with 12. The San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) is the only other prep race to produce double digit Kentucky Derby winners with 11.

These races from the past logically have little to do with the 2006 Kentucky Derby and prep races thereof. But in attempting to find a winner among the Kentucky Derby cast of 2011, we need all the help we can get.

Baffling Kentucky Derby Group Could Produce Some High Odds

As the Spring season of prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands comes to a close (it officially ends with the Derby Trial (gr. 3) at Churchill Downs, Saturday, before Apr. 30) it has been no secret that this group of 3-year-old thoroughbreds have been difficult to decipher and will be equally, if not more challenging to handicap on the first Saturday in May.

Dialed In will likely be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby this year and the win price may be even higher than some expect. Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form currently has Dialed In as the favorite at 4-1 odds, just ahead of Uncle Mo at 6-1, Nehro at 8-1 and Toby’s Corner and Archarcharch at 10-1. There is also plenty of chat on Twitter, Facebook and other horse racing blogs and columns about the possibility that Dialed In may even go as high as 5-1.

I see no reason why the favorite this year can’t be as high as 6-1. The field is certainly befuddling enough with only Toby’s Corner and Dialed In among the probably Kentucky Derby starters with more than one victory in a graded prep race this year. Even those two were not the favorites in their respective last starts. Dialed In was the second choice at 2.90-1 behind favored Soldat at 1.5-1 in his Florida Derby victory and Toby’s Corner was the 8.70-1 second choice behind 1-10 Uncle Mo while winning the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1).

The 4-1 mark also seems to be the natural over-under point for the Kentucky Derbies run since the field wagers were eliminated in 2001. Prior to that, wagering on the Run for the Roses was limited to 14 betting interests because of the technological limitations of that time. In the ten Kentucky Derbies since, the favorite has been below 4-1 five times and the above 4-1 five times.

Last year, Lookin at Lucky was the highest price favorite during that time at 6.30-1. His rough trips in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) at Oaklawn and the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) combined with his number one post position in Kentucky, of course, contributed to the high price. But also remember that undefeated Barbaro was just a little more popular as the favorite in the 2006 Kentucky Derby at 6.10-1. 2002 Derby favorite Came Home was also 6-1 so having a Derby favorite with odds that high may not be such an anomaly - especially with as many as 20 betting interest in modern Kentucky Derbies.

The most popular horse in the last ten runnings of the Kentucky Derby was Point Given at 1.8-1 in 2001. With slightly less betting appeal were Big Brown in 2008 at 2.40-1; Empire Maker in 2003 at 2.50-1; and Bellamy Road in 2005 at 2.60-1. Empire Maker and Point Given were also in the only two Kentucky Derbies during that span with less than 18 wagering interests. There were 16 betting interests in 2003 and 17 in 2001.

Give credit where it is due to those four however. Point Given had romped through southern California’s San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Bellamy Road came into the Derby off of a 14-1/2 length win the Wood Memorial while Empire Maker had won both the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. Big Brown overcame a bad post position in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) breaking from the 12 gate, but still won easily by five lengths.

Uncle Mo was certainly on his way to that kind of popularity this year before his disappointing third-place finish in the Wood. He stumbled at the start and grabbed a front hoof in that race, but trainer Todd Pletcher said neither was an excuse. Two days later, it is determined that Uncle Mo had a gastrointestinal infection but again, there is no way of knowing if that affected his race in the Wood.

Horses like Archarcharch, Nehro, Toby's Corner, Mucho Macho Man and frankly, quite a few others also have a chance to take some unpredicted late action. Soldat certainly has the credentials to regain some respect in the weeks leading up to the Derby, just as prep race upset winners Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed and Pants on Fire have the opportunity to build on their races.

Regardless of the many excuses and reasons that have seemed to plague this group headed for the Kentucky Derby, it is almost certain that the post time favorite is going to be at a healthy price. Placing 4-1 odds on Dialed In seems perfectly reasonable to me, as it does many others opinionating throughout the social media circles and horse racing journals and papers.

But with the uncertainty that seems to follow these 3-year-olds, it would also not be too surprising to see the favorite as high as 6-1.

Louisiana Derby May Have The Fire and Machismo For Kentucky

Upsets in nearly all of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) prep races this Spring will without doubt make this one of the most difficult crops to decipher on the first Saturday in May.

We are all left wondering if Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) winner Toby’s Corner is a one hit wonder.

Is Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) upset winner Midnight Interlude so much on the improve that he can win the most prestigious race in North American?

What about Uncle Mo? (photo) He was looked upon as unbeatable before his loss in the Wood Memorial.

Don’t forget The Factor. Before his dismal performance in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1), Churchill Downs handicapper Mike Battaglia made the Bob Baffert trainee the favorite to win the Run for the Roses.

Anybody remember Soldat? As pretty as he looked winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) in February, he looked just as ugly running fifth in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) won by Dialed In. And there was that allowance race in January that he won by more than 10 lengths. What happened to that?

So Dialed In is your favorite? Care to explain his schedule. He won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) in January then we didn’t hear from him in February. When trainer Nick Zito does start him, Dialed In is running against older horses in an optional claiming race. Then almost another 30 days go by and Dialed In comes bouncing down the Gulfstream Park stretch to win the Florida Derby. You remember all of those Kentucky Derby winners that have taken the Fountain of Youth-Optional Claiming-Florida Derby path to Kentucky... don’t you?

Look at the graded stakes earning list and you’ll see Comma to the Top at number three – right behind Archarcharch. Really? We’ve been listening to the connections of Comma to the Top tell us the Kentucky Derby is not an option since his fourth-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) in March. Trainer Peter Miller said then, he had concerns about the colts ability to win at 1-1/4 miles. Comma to the Top then runs second by a head behind Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby and plans suddenly might change.

Archarcharch won the Arkansas Derby at 25-1 odds. He has the Cinderella story with long time midwest training stalwart Jinks Fires legging up jockey Jon Court with the same heartland credentials. The son of Calumet stallion Arch, is also one of four horses to win two Kentucky Derby prep races this year joining Dialed In, Toby’s Corner and The Factor. Archarcharch also won the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn to go along with his Arkansas Derby tally. So does he go from Arkansas long shot to Kentucky contender in one race? Or is it two out of the last three races after running third in the Rebel behind The Factor?

Just more than two weeks from the Kentucky Derby and it seems we must find the horse with the fewest strikes instead of the horse with the most accomplishments.

Is such a race the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2)?

Pants on Fire was a surprise but logical 6-1 winner of the Louisiana Derby defeating favored Mucho Macho Man. This may be an improving colt and wouldn’t it be nice to see jockey Rosie Napravnik become the first female jockey to adorn the blanket of roses in the Churchill winner's circle?

Louisiana Derby runner-up Nehro is trained by Steve Asmussen of Rachel Alexandra and Curlin fame; and third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe in the Fair Grounds showcase.

That’s very shallow handicapping admittedly. But the other contenders in this year’s Derby, don’t seem to pass that simple litmus test like the Louisiana Derby contenders.

Everybody likes to talk about the depth of the Florida Derby this year – and justifiably so. Fountain of Youth winner Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) winner Stay Thirsty were among that group. But look behind the top three finishers in the Louisiana Derby and Elite Alex, Machen and Wilkinson – all promising Derby contenders in their own right – rounding out the top five finishers.

So much can and will change in the next two weeks before the Kentucky Derby. Contenders will likely scratch and wise-guy horses will begin to appear from the darkness and fog of morning works at Churchill Downs. There will be speculations, calculations and reservations between now and that famous moment when the field of 20 breaks from the gate at Churchill Downs.

It seems now, however, that one needs look no further than New Orleans to find the Kentucky Derby contender with the least voodoo.

Still A Ways To Go On Road To Derby

Now that the majority of the prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands have been run, each full of surprises and disappointments, it’s time to start putting the puzzle pieces together. As Axel Rose once sang in Sweet Child O’ Mine: “Where do we go now?”

There is still the Coolmore Lexigton Stakes (gr. 3) this Saturday at Keeneland, but the $200,000 purse and $120,000 winner’s check will only help El Camino Real (gr. 3) winner Silver Medallion qualify for the Derby by adding to his $184,334 in graded earnings. According to Keeneland, the other probables are Beachcombing, Casper’s Touch, Derby Kitten and Prime Cut. Hurricane Lake and Uncle Sam are also possible.

Should Silver Medallion win the Lexington, (all other things remaining the same), Santiva would fall out of the Kentucky Derby top 20 with his $242,397. Others on the outside of the Derby looking in are Watch Me Go ($235,500), Shackleford ($212,000) and Twinspired ($197,500). All of these horses of course, were pushed down a notch earlier this week when Coolmore Stud announced that Criterium Internation (F.-1) and Airlie Stud Ganullule Stakes (Ire-3) winner was headed for the Kentucky Derby from Europe.

Last year, it took $218,750 for Make Music for Me to get the chance to enter the Kentucky Derby. Last minutes changes due to injury or an alteration of plans can also wreak havoc on the top 20 graded stakes earning 3-year-olds. In 2009, multiple late scratches allowed Nowhere to Hide to enter the Run for the Roses with only $55,500.

Technically, 2011 has already had several defections, the most recent being Astrology, currently ranked 17th on the list with $281,893. Trainer Steve Asmussen said he will instead be pointed to the Jerome Handicap at Aqueduct this Saturday. That pulled Jaycito up to the 19th spot with his $250,000 and Santiva into the last remaining spot in the top 20.

The additions and subtractions to the field may go right up to the morning of the Kentucky Derby. Two years ago, morning line favorite I Want Revenge was scratched after trainer Jeff Mullins found a hot spot on the colt’s left front ankle. Unfortunately, when a horse scratches that late, no horse can be pulled of the also elibible list. Also that year, Florida Derby winner Quality Road was scratched just days before the Derby due to problems in a front hoof.

This time last year, Eskenderya was coming off of a 18-1/2 length romp in the Wood Memorial and a similar devastation of rivals in the Fountain of Youth (gr. 2) in February. So dominant was Eskendereya that people began to think there was hope for the next Triple Crown winner. But a week later, trainer Todd Pletcher walked into his shed row only to find swelling between the left front ankle and knee. Because of his potential as a sire, Eskendereya was retired to stud in Kentucky.

This year, Pletcher has Uncle Mo, considered the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby before he finished a dismal third in the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) last week at Aqueduct. Following the race, it was discovered that Uncle Mo had grabbed a quarter during the running of the Wood. Then a gastrointestinal infection was found a few days later. Pletcher said neither would effect Uncle's Mo training but it can be assumed that Pletcher is doing everything to secure his barn from black cats, turks, gremlins and all other bad luck creatures mythical or real.

Last year at this time Backtalk and Make Music for Me were ranked 22nd and 23rd respectively on the graded earnings list. Both started in the Kentucky Derby and give hope to the connections behind Watch Me Go, Shackleford and Twinspired.

Even as most of the graded stakes monies have been distributed and the major races have been run, the road to the Kentucky is far from it's May 7 destination.

Florida Derby Confirms, Changes and Provides Hope For Kentucky Plans

Like ugly pitchers and pretty quarterbacks, everybody loves a late running thoroughbred and an emotional Nick Zito. Who can forget the raspy sounding Zito thanking God and everybody within reach after Strike the Gold won the 1991 Kentucky Derby. Well Dialed In gave horse racing both again Sunday afternoon at Gulfstream Park when he won the grade 1 Florida Derby narrowly over a stubborn Shackleford in second.

“This particular horse [Dialed In], I’ve become attached to," Zito said Monday at his barn at Palm Meadows Training Center. "I’ve had a lot of great horses, but with this particular horse there’s something about him, the horse’s courage, the way he is. More importantly, you’re not supposed to do what he’s done in his young career,“ Zito continued. “It’s almost impossible to do the things he’s done. You get emotional. He defies a speed favoring track – he defies it.”

Zito said Monday that he would not be shipping Dialed In to Kentucky anytime soon and would instead remain at the Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida for at least a few more weeks. But there is not doubt they are headed to Kentucky where Zito will be trying to win his third Run for the Roses. Zito won the Kentucky Derby in 1991 with Strike the Gold and again in 1994 with Go For Gin.

Shackleford, the Florida Derby runner-up at odds of 68-1, will be leaving for Kentucky a little sooner according to his trainer Dale Romans. The question for Shackleford will be whether his $212,000 will be enough graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Derby. Shackleford added the $200,000 second-place Florida Derby check to his previous $12,000 earned while finishing fifth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) won by Soldat Feb. 26.

“We’ll see how everything shakes down and if the $212,000 will be good enough to get in,” Roman’s said Monday. “We won’t run him again. He’ll be pointed to the Derby and if doesn’t get in, we’ll give the Preakness a try.” Shackleford is currently ranked 20th on the list of graded stakes earnings by Kentucky Derby contenders. While that will be the final spot available to enter on May 4 for the Derby three days later, there are plenty of very rich graded stakes between now and the Kentucky Derby and that day. On the positive side for Shackleford, there are several horses ranked above the son of Forrestry that are questionable for the Kentucky Derby. The owners of Comma To The Top, currently sixth on the money list, have said the Kentucky Derby is not in their plans for the colt. Also ranked above Shackleford are three horses that finished well behind him in the Florida Derby.

Florida Derby favorite Soldat is ranked fifth on the list with $540,000 in graded earnings but was fifth in the Florida Derby, beaten more than 10 lengths by Dialed In. Florida Derby third-place finisher To Honor and Serve is ranked tenth with $350,000; and Stay Thirsty, seventh in the Florida Derby, has the 15th highest graded stakes earnings with $260,000.

“My gut tells me, ‘yeah, go on to the Kentucky Derby’” Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of Soldat, said Monday. “You’ve got the earnings and [the Florida Derby was the] first race he wasn’t first or second. But I’ll have to talk to all the owners.” McLaughlin also said the 3-year-old son of War Front came out of the Florida Derby with no concerns.

Unlike Soldat, To Honor and Serve has not had a good race this year. In his only two races as a 3-year-old, To Honor and Serve has finished third, more than 6-1/2 lengths behind the winner, in both the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth. Last year To Honor and Serve won the grade 2 Remsen Stakes at 1-1/8 miles over Mucho Macho Man but has yet to match that race as a sophomore. Bill Mott, his Hall of Fame trainer is also not one to be smitten over having a Kentucky Derby starter. In a training career that spans some 40 years, Mott has had only seven Kentucky Derby starters with Hold Me Back, 12th in 2009, as his most successful starter.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has not indicated as to whether Stay Thirsty will be heading to Kentucky for the Derby, but the odds are that he and owner Mike Repole will be looking elsewhere. Stay Thirsty was never a factor while finishing a well beaten sixth in the Florida Derby. Pletcher also trains Derby future book favorite Uncle Mo for Repole, so it not likely they will need Stay Thirsty to get to Churchill Downs for the Derby.

Whether To Honor and Serve, Soldat or Stay Thirsty head to Kentucky or not, one can be assured the list will change many times during the next four weeks leading up to the Derby. Millions of graded earnings have yet to be given away in New York, California, Illinois, Kentucky and Arkansas, so new names on the list of probable Kentucky Derby are likely to appear. Just as names fall of that list for various reasons as well.

Safe be it to say that the connections behind Shackleford will watch their colt fall of and return to the Derby list a few times in the next four weeks.

Deep Florida Derby Has Trainers In The Know

There is no question the Florida Derby (gr. 1) Sunday at Gulfstream Park is the deepest prep race for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands so far this year. And Sandra Bullock is more popular than Jesse James. The race has two horses that are ranked in the top five of most Derby watch lists this Spring, two other top ten candidates and four new comers to the Triple Crown trail including a monkey wrench. The eventual winner is the mystery.

The favorite is Soldat, a good looking son of War Front who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26. Although War Front was a sprinter and Soldat’s grandsire, Rubiano, was a champion sprinter, Soldat has had little trouble winning his two previous starts this year, both at the Florida Derby distance of 1-1/8 miles. Befor the Fountain of Youth, Soldat also won a 9 furlong allowance race in February by more than 10-1/2 lengths.

Soldat has used his speedy genetics to win both races from gate to wire, making one think jockey Alan Garcia might employ the same tactics in the Florida Derby. However, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (photo right) calls the game plan and it is doubtful he wants Soldat to race to the front Sunday. “He does everything right,” McLaughlin said on Televison Games Network. “The only thing I’d like to change is for him to get some dirt in his face. Whether it be in the Florida Derby or in the morning, we might do both. But on the first Saturday in May, you don’t want to be on the lead.”

Soldat has already fulfilled his morning “dirt in the face” requirement, beginning his Mar. 20 five furlong work behind two runners from the McLaughlin stable before accelerating around them to complete the assigned task. The grimy trip didn’t seem to bother Soldat much as he recorded a bullet work in 1:00 3/5, the fastest of 29 five-eighths of a mile works at Palm Meadows that morning. Odds are that McLaughlin wants to fulfill the other “dirt in the face” requirement Sunday.

Regardless of McLaughlin’s strategy, trainer Rick Dutrow looks to have his sights on the early lead in the Florida Derby with his late entrant Flashpoint. Like Soldat, Flashpoint is by a young sire who was successful on the track as a sprinter. His sire Pomeroy won the King’s Bishop and Kelso Handicap, both grade 1 races at seven furlongs in New York. Unlike Soldat, however, Flashpoint has never been further than the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes, a grade 2 race on Feb. 26 he won by seven and a half lengths.

Flashpoint breaks from the outside post in the eight-horse field, but he figures to the first leader in the Florida Derby and perhaps putting McLaughlin at some ease for the moment. Should Soldat also want the lead as his past performances may indicate, that would be the wrench du monkey previously mentioned.

A trainer that will be rooting for Soldat and Flashpoint to battle each early, is two-time Kentucky Derby winning condition Nick Zito, who saddles 2-1 second choice Dialed In. Considered among the future book favorites to win in Kentucky, the son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft is a classic late closer. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs coming from last in a 12-horse field and then won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) Jan. 30 at Gulfstream Park coming from last, ten lengths off the lead.

Scheduling challenges and a need to expand out to nine furlongs, forced Zito to run Dialed In against older horses in a Mar. 6 optional claiming. A slow pace in that race also presented a challenge for the young closer and jockey Julien Laparoux, but they rallied to finish second to remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Having some difficulty staying on the Derby track is To Honor and Serve who finished a tired looking third behind Soldat In the Fountain of Youth. Coming from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (photo left) somewhat eases those concerns for To Honor and Serve fans, but that does not reduce the necessity of a much improved performance in the Florida Derby in order to stay the Kentucky course.

If the Derby path had somehow narrowed to a straight line down the stretch of Aqueduct’s inner track on March 5, it is uncertain if Stay Thirsty would still be aboard. But the Derby path didn’t constrict and Stay Thirsty remains pointed toward Kentucky.

Although Stay Thirsty won the grade 3 Gotham Stakes that day, he looked less than professional in doing so. That day he broke poorly but jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to eventuall place him into contention. Turning for home, Stay Thirsty veered in without impeding another horse before then changing leads a few times. But his talent endurred and Stay Thirsty drew off to win the Gotham by just over three lengths.

It was the first start of the year for Stay Thirsty, so trainer Todd Pletcher looked at the Gotham with a glass half full attitude - seeing the room for improvement in his young son of Bernadini. He will put blinkers on Stay Thirsty in the Florida Derby to help him focus and seems confident he’ll see a smarter Stay Thirsty this time.

Rounding out the Florida Derby are Arch Traveler, Bowman’s Causeway and Shackleford, all at 20-1 and none of which are stakes winners.

There have been eleven Kentucky Derby winners who ran in the Florida Derby without winning. The most recent of those was Monarchos who took the 2001 Run for the Roses after finishing second in Florida. Before that, both Thunder Gulch (1995) and Go For Gin (’94) won Kentucky Derbies after finishing fourth in their respective Florida Derbies.

Pletcher, McLaughlin, Mott, Pletcher and Zito probably know of a few of those horses. Zito does. He trained Go For Gin. The four trainers also know their horses likely have enough graded earnings to qualify for the big prize at Churchill. And despite the $1 million purse in Florida, the riches and prestige of the Kentucky have no rival in North American horse racing – perhaps even the world.

So a loss Sunday does not present any type of third strike or punch off the proverbial trail to the Kentucky Derby. But the talent in this field in abundant and wide spread – even hidden, perhaps, in one of the three long shots. The light prep races disappeared with the days of February and March and time is eroding the options for change as the first Saturday in May nears.

Still the Florida Derby is not life or death. But a bad race by any of the promising contenders will surely cause less than comfortable illness for the previously hopeful connections. You can bet the four trainers know that too.

Florida Win Is No Requisite For Kentucky Fame

This Sunday, one of the premier prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) will be run in the grade 1 Florida Derby. Not only does the $1 million purse provide plenty of incentive to those connections needing graded stakes money to qualify their colt for the Run for the Roses, but the 1-1/8 distance, calendar placement and tradition also adds to the races allure.

Run just five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, this Florida Derby looks to have one of the deepest fields the race has offered in some time. Probable starters Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are all among leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby with all appearing in Paulick Report’s Vinery LTD Derby Index, a top ten ranking of Kentucky Derby contenders as ranked by 28 turf writers and thoroughbred racing bloggers throughout North America. Soldat is ranked second behind leader Uncle Mo with Dialed In tallying the third most votes. To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are ranked sixth and seventh respectively in the weekly poll.

Although Soldat, with his $510,000 in graded stakes earnings, is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby should he make it there, Stay Thirsty ($260,000), To Honor and Serve ($250,000) and Dialed In ($240,000) appear not to need more than a $50,000 fourth-place Florida Derby check that push them near the $300,000 mark believed to safely be enough to stamp a ticket to Louisville, Kentucky. But one can rest assured that the owners, trainers and jockeys in this race are thinking nothing short of the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle after the Florida Derby.

After all, since the Florida Derby was first run in 1953, ten winners have gone to take the Kentucky Derby including Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (’06), Monarchos (‘01), Thunder Gulch (1995), Unbridled (’90), Swale (’84), Spectacular Bid (’79), Forward Pass (’68), Northern Dancer (’64), Carry Back (’61) and Needles in 1956 (photo above). Of those, however, only Big Brown, Barbaro and Needles went directly from the Florida Derby to Kentucky.

Spectacular Bid, Forward Pass and Northern Dancer (photo left) all won the Bluegrass Stakes between their Florida and Kentucky victories and Tim Tam won the Derby Trial. Swale, Unbridled and Thunder Gulch also went to Lexington for the Blue Grass before the Derby, but finished second, third and fourth respectively in the Keeneland’s Bluegrass.

Monarchos, and Carry Back went to Aqueduct in New York to finish second in the Wood Memorial before going to Kentucky for their post race blanket of roses.

With the quality of the 2011 Florida Derby as high and deep as it is, one might also think a Florida Derby might be a must for Kentucky glory. However, nine Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Florida Derby but failed to win. Strike The Gold (’91), Cannonade (’74) and Venetian Way (’60) finished second in the Florida Derby before winning the big one in Kentucky. Foolish Pleasure (’75) and Iron Liege (’57) were third, while Go For Gin (’94) and Kaui King (’66) were both unplaced in Florida before their historical wins in Kentucky.

With five weeks remaining until the Kentucky Derby on May 7, the pressure is surely beginning to mount in the shed rows of those with aspirations of taking the coveted race so there is no need to heap on additional albatross of a must win in Florida Sunday. Florida Derby probables Bowman’s Causeway, Arch Traveler and perhaps Flashpoint need the $600,000 first-place check for the needed graded earnings for Derby consideration. But for Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty, the additional burden of a must-win is unnecessary.

That is unlikely to make much difference for their connections, however. Urgency is not a necessary ingredient for determination. And few run horse races to finish second.

Holy Bull Has Plenty of Character

Since there is no official starting date when the road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands begins, it is fair to say, “we are underway” with Sunday’s Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. Yes, some say last weekend’s Le Comte Stakes at Fair Grounds may have been more of an official launching point, but never-the-less, things are starting to heat up a little in the 3-year-old thoroughbred ranks.

Some may say that the defection of Boys At Tosconova, who has been among the favorites for the Derby over the winter, compromises the Holy Bull in terms of it actually being a Derby prep, but there is certainly plenty of character - if not down right potential - among the remainders.

In the short 21-year history of the Holy Bull, it has produced two Kentucky Derby winners in Go For Gin (1994) and Barbaro in 2006. So its place as the launching pad of Derby preps at Gulfstream Park has served it well. Although Barbaro won the Holy Bull when it was run at 1-1/8 miles and Go For Gin won a 1-1/16 mile version of the Holy Bull. For second consecutive years now, the Holy Bull will be run at a mile around one turn.

The next stops are the Feb. 26, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes and the $1 million Florida Derby April 3, both at 1-1/8 miles.

Among those still going into the Holy Bull is Mucho Macho Man, a son of the Holy Bull sire Macho Uno. Mucho Macho Man has been the runner-up to To Honor and Serve – another prime Derby hopeful – in his last two races in the Nashua Stakes Nov. 6 and the Remsen Stakes Nov. 27, both grade 2 stakes at Aqueduct and both very fast. Intriguing for Much Macho Man fans however, was the fact that he made up two lengths on To Honor and Serve in the Remsen at 1-1/8 miles. How he handles his short winter vacation and the one-turn mile will be signs that might boost him on Derby lists.

Another character in the Holy Bull is Gourmet Dinner, winner of the grade 3 Delta Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs in Louisiana November 20. What makes Gourmet Dinner a bit of a Derby stratagem is that the Delta Jackpot featured a $750,000 purse giving him – in all likelihood – more than enough graded earnings to qualify for the Run for the Roses. The Florida-bred son of Trippi, who now stands in South Africa, added to his credibility with a fourth place finish after a less than optimal trip in the grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park.

Of course one should hardly talk of any winter horse racing event in South Florida having charisma without the appearance of trainer Nick Zito. He has entered Dialed In, an impressive son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, who broke his maiden in come-from-behind fashion at Churchill Downs Nov. 12. Zito is looking for his third Holy Bull after winning the stake back-to-back with Go For Gin and Suave Prospect in 1995.

Add to the cast a Dale Romans-trained son of Devil His Due in Black N Beauty, coming out of consecutive wins in a Churchill maiden special weight and a Gulfstream allowance and the Holy Bull looks to have plenty of interests and opportunities on which it can stand.