Uncle Mo And His Derby Trail Momentum

More than a week after what many consider the best Breeders’ Cup in the 27-year history of the event, it’s final criteria for judgment is still more than five months away. The final question to be asked: Will Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Uncle Mo, go on to victory in the Kentucky Derby?

In the previous 26 editions for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, only one winner has gone on to take the Kentucky Derby. Street Sense became the only horse to win both races when he won the 2006 Juvenile and 2007 Kentucky Derby. Similar to Uncle Mo, Street Sense won his Juvenile at Churchill Downs by a record 10-length margin in 2006, almost doubling the record margin set by eventual Horse of the Year Favorite Trick who won the Juvenile by 5-1/2 lengths. Arazi in 1991 and Brocco two years later, both won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile by five lengths.

Uncle Mo won by only 4-1/2 lengths as the favorite over second choice Boys of Tosconova, who was a full six lengths ahead of third place finisher Roque Romance. So the final margin in the Juvenile is a bit misleading for Uncle Mo, who seemed to have an easy time winning that day.

And while Uncle Mo ran the second fastest Beyer Speed Figure in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at 108, his time of 1:42.60 was just above the middle of the pack as the tenth fastest of 24 Breeders’ Cup Juveniles run at the distance of 1-1/16th miles. (Three times the race has been run at a mile [1984-'85, '87]. Also, Capote covered 1-1/4 miles winning the 1986 Juvenile at Santa Anita and in 2002, Vindication had to cover 1-1/8 miles to win the Juvenile at Arlington Park.) Midshipman ran the fastest Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2008 over Santa Anita’s PolyTrack, covering the 1-1/16 miles in 1:40.94. Interestingly, ranking just above Uncle Mo is Street Sense, who ran over Churchill Downs as a juvenile just 1/100th of a second faster than Uncle Mo, winning in 1:59.66.

Although, Street Sense is the only winner of the Juvenile to come back and take the Derby next Spring, four other Juvenile starters have returned to take the Run for the Roses including Spend A Buck, third in the 1984 Juvenile, Alysheba (3rd, 1986) Sea Hero (7th, 1992) and Mine That Bird (13th, 2008).

Among the most popular and simple handicapping angles for those in search of a Kentucky Derby winner is the old “dual qualifier” angle. In order to be qualified, a horse must have been weighted within ten pounds of the high weighted 2-year-old in the Experimental Free Handicap and have a dosage index of 4.00 or less. Although the Experimental Free Handicap is not published until January, Uncle Mo is very likely to be named as the high weighted 2-year-old colt in 2010 by the panel of racing secretaries consisting of Ben Huffman of Churchill Downs, P.J. Campo of the New York Racing Association and Thomas S. Robbins of the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club.

Developed by the late Daily Racing Form columnist and pedigree expert Leon Rasmussen, the system held up well until the late 1990s when Silver Charm won the Derby as a dual qualifier in 1997. Since then, only two dual qualifiers have won the Kentucky Derby including Super Saver last year and Street Sense in 2007. With the expected high ranking in the Experimental Free Handicap and a Dosage Index of 2.20, Uncle Mo has the credentials.

This week trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole said they have shipped Uncle Mo to Jimmy Crupi’s New Castle Farm in Ocala. Fla. for a month vacation with daily walks and some relaxing paddock time. Connections said Uncle Mo will return to training with Pletcher at the Palm Meadows training center around Dec. 1 and that his road to the Kentucky Derby is likely include two races. Because Repole is a New Yorker, the planned final Derby preparation for Uncle Mo is the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct Race Track.

Since 1937, only 10 horses have won the Kentucky Derby with only two races as 3-year-old to prepare, but the list includes Street Sense, Big Brown, Mine That Bird and Super Saver, the winner’s of the last four.

Should Uncle Mo remain in the Pletcher barn and jockey John Velazquez keep the mount until the first Saturday in May, Uncle Mo will also share two other statistics with Street Sense. He will go to the post after being saddled by a one-time Derby winning trainer and a jockey looking for his first trip to the illustrious Derby winners’ circle. Street Sense was trained by Carl Nafzger, who had previously won the Derby with Unbridled in 1990 and was ridden by Kentucky Derby maiden jockey Calvin Borel. Pletcher won his first Kentucky Derby with Super Saver last year and Velazquez is still searching for his.

There are of course, many other questions and challenges Uncle Mo must overcome before he can realistically be expected to contend in the Kentucky Derby on May 1 – not the least of which is his sire Indian Charlie. Standing at Airdrie Farm in Kentucky for a healthy $70,000 per breeding, Indian Charlie has had little success at producing runners that can get the classic 10 furlong distance of the Derby. On the track, Indian Charlie won the 1998 Santa Anita Derby at 1-1/8 miles but was third in the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby behind Real Quiet.

As a sire, Indian Charlie had Conveyance on the Triple Crown trail last year under trainer Bob Baffert. Conveyance won the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park and San Rafael Stakes at Santa Anita, both graded races at eight furlongs. Although Conveyance had plenty of speed to lead the 2010 Kentucky Derby field for nearly a mile, he slowed quickly in the final two furlongs and finished 15th. Among his current top performers, only the 4-year-old gelding Indian Dance and 4-year-old filly Moon Charmer are stakes winners further than 8 furlongs. Moon Charmer won the $50,000 Farer Belle Handicap at 8-1/2 furlongs and Indian Dance won the $62,000 Harry E. Johnson Memorial Stakes at 9 furlongs.

There is much that can happen in the 165 days between now and the Kentucky Derby. Soundness, health, maturity and racing luck will also be keys to the success of Uncle Mo next year and while they are high in importance, they are perhaps the least over which Pletcher has control.

But with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his pocket and a Champion 2-Year-Old Male Eclipse Award surely on the way, Uncle Mo has plenty of credentials to carry the spotlight into his sophomore year.

Beware The Derby Fever After The Juvenile

If you’re planning on running out to Las Vegas to place your Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) future book wager shortly after the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Nov. 6, beware that history is against you. In the previous 26 runnings of the Juvenile, only Street Sense has managed go on to win the Kentucky Derby the following year. In fact, the Juvenile has produced only five Kentucky Derby winners during that time.

The Juvenile got off to a fast start in 1984 when Chief’s Crown won as the odds-on favorite over Tank’s Prospect in second and Spend A Buck (right) in third. Six months later all three were at Churchill Downs for the Derby with Chief’s Crown maintaining his popularity as the favorite. But Spend A Buck turned the tables on the Juvenile winner in a wire-to-wire Kentucky Derby victory while Chief’s Crown could only manage to hang on for third. Tank’s Prospect was seventh in the Derby but came back two weeks later to take the Preakness.

In the 1986 Juvenile, favored Capote defeated Qualify but the future stars were back in third in fourth. Future Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Alysheba (left) was in the show spot just more than two lengths ahead of Bet Twice. Bet Twice would finish second to Alysheba in the first two legs of the Triple Crown but won the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1). In fact, five of the top six finishers in the Juvenile went on to the Derby with Gulch and Demon’s Begone.

It would be six years before another future Derby winner would even run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but the 1988 and ’89 Juveniles did feature Easy Goer and Go and Go, both of whom would take the Belmont Stakes seven months later.

Sea Hero won the 1993 Kentucky Derby after running in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Gulfstream Park in 1992. However, his status as the 2-1 betting choice was deflated when he finished a non-descript seventh behind Juvenile winner Gilded Time in the Juvenile.

The next ten Juveniles produced several future classic winners and 1997 Juvenile Champion Favorite Trick was named Horse of the Year that same year. Tabasco Cat, third in the 1993 Juvenile, went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 1994. That same year Timber Country won the Juvenile before winning the Preakness the following year, becoming the first Juvenile winner to win a Triple Crown race.

Point Given was the next Juvenile graduate to win at that level winning the 2001 Preakness after finishing second to Macho Uno in the 2000 Juvenile. Four years later, Afleet Alex was second to Wilko in the Juvenile but would later win both the Preakness and Belmont.

Street Sense was a fairly anonymous Juvenile winner in 2006 at 15-1 odds, but there was a glimpse of the future as jockey Calvin Borel steered around one horse into the far turn before returning to the inside rail to find running room and go on to a 10 length Juvenile victory. The team would repeat that game plan on the first Saturday in May to give Borel his first Derby and trainer Carl Nafzger his second.

The most recent Juvenile graduate to take the Run for the Rose is of Mine That Bird, who took the Derby at odds of 50-1. He was slightly more popular in the 2008 Juvenile with 23-1 odds, but his performance was forgettable, finishing last.

The natural tendency after the Breeders’ Cup is of course, to begin the road to the next year’s Kentucky Derby. Just remember that there is much that can happen between November 6 at Churchill and the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

You Don't Always Get What You Want, But Fillies May Give What We Need.

You can't always get what you want.
But if you try sometime, you just might find,
You get what you need.
-The Rolling Stones

When the Kentucky Derby horses step onto the Churchill Downs track, we are all accustomed to the tradition of "My Old Kentucky Home". Two weeks later "Maryland, My Maryland" rings out at Pimlico as the Preakness post parade begins and the fans at Belmont Park enjoy "New York, New York" during the introduction of the Belmont Stakes contenders.

No such musical tradition exists at the Breeders' Cup World Championships, but this might be a good year to give it a try. I suggest the Rolling Stones' "You Don't Always Get What You Want" for the $2,000,000 Bessemer Trust Juvenile Fillies on the Friday, Nov. 6 card at Santa Anita.

Despite all efforts by Breeders' Cup officials, it appears doubtful that we racing fans will get the match-up between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra in the Classic or Ladies Classic. But the younger girls may give us what we need.

Playing the part of Rachel Alexandra would be Hot Dixie Chick. Of course Hot Dixie Chick is no Rachel Alexandra, but Charlton Heston was no Moses and he still put on a pretty good show.

Talent and accomplishments aside, Hot Dixie Chick is at least a qualified understudy as she spends her off-time in the stall next to Rachel Alexandra in the Steve Asmussen Barn. "(Her) extremely laid back... demeanor is why she's stabled next to Rachel," the trainer has said. Hot Dixie Chick also races for a similar ownership team under the name of Grace Stables owned by Barbara Banke. Banke’s husband, Jess Jackson, owns Rachel Alexandra with partner Harold McCormick.

Hot Dixie Chick also has a similar running style. She exemplified her blazing speed while setting the Churchill Downs track record for five furlongs in :56.48 seconds in her second start in June. But she has recently shown she can pace herself. In her last two victories in the grade 3 Schuylerville July 29 and the grade 1 Spinaway Sept. 6 at Saratoga, she stalked the early leaders before pulling away to win by 5-3/4 lengths and 1-3/4 lengths respectively.

Rachel has won just less than $3 million and Hot Dixie Chick has won just less than $300,000. The Saratoga fans didn't erupt in voluminous cheers for Hot Dixie Chick like they did for Rachel Alexandra either. But they did bet them both down below even money. So the similarities are there.


To play the part of Zenyatta, our casting director has offered the role to Mi Sueno. Again, she's no Zenyatta but played one on TVG Sept. 5 in the grade 1 Darley Debutante at Del Mar. Like her role model in the Clement Hirsch Stakes a few weeks earlier at Del Mar, Mi Sueno appeared beaten around the far turn of the $300,000 Debutante. She was trapped behind a wall of horses as Blind Luck and La Nez raced passed her around the outside of the pack. But when they straightened away for home, jockey Michael Baze steered Mi Sueno from behind the wall and raced to again engage Blind Luck, La Nez and by now, It Tiz in the race to the wire. Like Zenyatta, Mi Sueno slowly and deliberately edged clear of her rivals to win.


Now Zenyatta is undefeated in 12 starts and has won millions and the Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic last year to rank her among some of the best of all-time. Mi Sueno has won half of her four career starts and has a long way to go to realistically be compared. Zenyatta races from far back early in a race, while Mi Sueno races a bit closer to the leaders. But both are dark bay and strikingly attractive, big boned girls. Mi Sueno so much so that her owner, Michael Moreno’s Southern Equine Stable, purchased her for $1.7 million at the 2007 Keeneland November auction when she was just a weanling.

So the Bessemer Trust Juvenile Fillies may not be the blockbuster race of the new millennium like a Rachel Alexandra v. Zenyatta showdown, but I'm guessing the young girls will give a performance that is definitely worth more than the price of admission. It may not be the race we want, but we just might find it's just what we need.