Baffling Kentucky Derby Group Could Produce Some High Odds

As the Spring season of prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands comes to a close (it officially ends with the Derby Trial (gr. 3) at Churchill Downs, Saturday, before Apr. 30) it has been no secret that this group of 3-year-old thoroughbreds have been difficult to decipher and will be equally, if not more challenging to handicap on the first Saturday in May.

Dialed In will likely be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby this year and the win price may be even higher than some expect. Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form currently has Dialed In as the favorite at 4-1 odds, just ahead of Uncle Mo at 6-1, Nehro at 8-1 and Toby’s Corner and Archarcharch at 10-1. There is also plenty of chat on Twitter, Facebook and other horse racing blogs and columns about the possibility that Dialed In may even go as high as 5-1.

I see no reason why the favorite this year can’t be as high as 6-1. The field is certainly befuddling enough with only Toby’s Corner and Dialed In among the probably Kentucky Derby starters with more than one victory in a graded prep race this year. Even those two were not the favorites in their respective last starts. Dialed In was the second choice at 2.90-1 behind favored Soldat at 1.5-1 in his Florida Derby victory and Toby’s Corner was the 8.70-1 second choice behind 1-10 Uncle Mo while winning the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1).

The 4-1 mark also seems to be the natural over-under point for the Kentucky Derbies run since the field wagers were eliminated in 2001. Prior to that, wagering on the Run for the Roses was limited to 14 betting interests because of the technological limitations of that time. In the ten Kentucky Derbies since, the favorite has been below 4-1 five times and the above 4-1 five times.

Last year, Lookin at Lucky was the highest price favorite during that time at 6.30-1. His rough trips in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) at Oaklawn and the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) combined with his number one post position in Kentucky, of course, contributed to the high price. But also remember that undefeated Barbaro was just a little more popular as the favorite in the 2006 Kentucky Derby at 6.10-1. 2002 Derby favorite Came Home was also 6-1 so having a Derby favorite with odds that high may not be such an anomaly - especially with as many as 20 betting interest in modern Kentucky Derbies.

The most popular horse in the last ten runnings of the Kentucky Derby was Point Given at 1.8-1 in 2001. With slightly less betting appeal were Big Brown in 2008 at 2.40-1; Empire Maker in 2003 at 2.50-1; and Bellamy Road in 2005 at 2.60-1. Empire Maker and Point Given were also in the only two Kentucky Derbies during that span with less than 18 wagering interests. There were 16 betting interests in 2003 and 17 in 2001.

Give credit where it is due to those four however. Point Given had romped through southern California’s San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Bellamy Road came into the Derby off of a 14-1/2 length win the Wood Memorial while Empire Maker had won both the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. Big Brown overcame a bad post position in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) breaking from the 12 gate, but still won easily by five lengths.

Uncle Mo was certainly on his way to that kind of popularity this year before his disappointing third-place finish in the Wood. He stumbled at the start and grabbed a front hoof in that race, but trainer Todd Pletcher said neither was an excuse. Two days later, it is determined that Uncle Mo had a gastrointestinal infection but again, there is no way of knowing if that affected his race in the Wood.

Horses like Archarcharch, Nehro, Toby's Corner, Mucho Macho Man and frankly, quite a few others also have a chance to take some unpredicted late action. Soldat certainly has the credentials to regain some respect in the weeks leading up to the Derby, just as prep race upset winners Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed and Pants on Fire have the opportunity to build on their races.

Regardless of the many excuses and reasons that have seemed to plague this group headed for the Kentucky Derby, it is almost certain that the post time favorite is going to be at a healthy price. Placing 4-1 odds on Dialed In seems perfectly reasonable to me, as it does many others opinionating throughout the social media circles and horse racing journals and papers.

But with the uncertainty that seems to follow these 3-year-olds, it would also not be too surprising to see the favorite as high as 6-1.

Beware The Derby Fever After The Juvenile

If you’re planning on running out to Las Vegas to place your Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) future book wager shortly after the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Nov. 6, beware that history is against you. In the previous 26 runnings of the Juvenile, only Street Sense has managed go on to win the Kentucky Derby the following year. In fact, the Juvenile has produced only five Kentucky Derby winners during that time.

The Juvenile got off to a fast start in 1984 when Chief’s Crown won as the odds-on favorite over Tank’s Prospect in second and Spend A Buck (right) in third. Six months later all three were at Churchill Downs for the Derby with Chief’s Crown maintaining his popularity as the favorite. But Spend A Buck turned the tables on the Juvenile winner in a wire-to-wire Kentucky Derby victory while Chief’s Crown could only manage to hang on for third. Tank’s Prospect was seventh in the Derby but came back two weeks later to take the Preakness.

In the 1986 Juvenile, favored Capote defeated Qualify but the future stars were back in third in fourth. Future Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Alysheba (left) was in the show spot just more than two lengths ahead of Bet Twice. Bet Twice would finish second to Alysheba in the first two legs of the Triple Crown but won the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1). In fact, five of the top six finishers in the Juvenile went on to the Derby with Gulch and Demon’s Begone.

It would be six years before another future Derby winner would even run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but the 1988 and ’89 Juveniles did feature Easy Goer and Go and Go, both of whom would take the Belmont Stakes seven months later.

Sea Hero won the 1993 Kentucky Derby after running in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Gulfstream Park in 1992. However, his status as the 2-1 betting choice was deflated when he finished a non-descript seventh behind Juvenile winner Gilded Time in the Juvenile.

The next ten Juveniles produced several future classic winners and 1997 Juvenile Champion Favorite Trick was named Horse of the Year that same year. Tabasco Cat, third in the 1993 Juvenile, went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 1994. That same year Timber Country won the Juvenile before winning the Preakness the following year, becoming the first Juvenile winner to win a Triple Crown race.

Point Given was the next Juvenile graduate to win at that level winning the 2001 Preakness after finishing second to Macho Uno in the 2000 Juvenile. Four years later, Afleet Alex was second to Wilko in the Juvenile but would later win both the Preakness and Belmont.

Street Sense was a fairly anonymous Juvenile winner in 2006 at 15-1 odds, but there was a glimpse of the future as jockey Calvin Borel steered around one horse into the far turn before returning to the inside rail to find running room and go on to a 10 length Juvenile victory. The team would repeat that game plan on the first Saturday in May to give Borel his first Derby and trainer Carl Nafzger his second.

The most recent Juvenile graduate to take the Run for the Rose is of Mine That Bird, who took the Derby at odds of 50-1. He was slightly more popular in the 2008 Juvenile with 23-1 odds, but his performance was forgettable, finishing last.

The natural tendency after the Breeders’ Cup is of course, to begin the road to the next year’s Kentucky Derby. Just remember that there is much that can happen between November 6 at Churchill and the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

Bird Brothers Battle For Championship

Oh the competition among siblings. Following Summer Bird's "slapping in the slop" Shadwell Travers victory Saturday at Saratoga, one must wonder how voters are now leaning in the race for Champion 3-Year-Old Male. Never one to predict or at times even understand, the voters mindset in any election, I'm going out on a limb here and say they're set on that son of Birdstone. Ironically, it's two brothers - both invited to the Kentucky Derby on the same day only after other, more qualified 3-year-olds according to Derby conditions, dropped out due to last minute injuries.

On one hand we have the Kentucky Derby winner, ever popular, often troubled and maligned Mine That Bird (photo right). A star in Canada as a 2-year-old, and an also ran in El Paso early this year, Mine That Bird won the Run For The Roses at 50-1 with a late acceleration not seen in any classic in many years. Both Calvin Borel and Mike Smith have left him twice now in a bizarre year when they also ride historically good females Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra.

With four trips on Mine That Bird between them, Borel has an "A+" effort in the Derby but a kind "D" for moving Mine That Bird too early in the Belmont. Smith gets a trafffic riddled "B" for his ride on Mine That Bird in Preakness but a "C-" with a tough pace question in the easy West Virginia Derby class. Throw in a minor throat surgery, stolen papers, a trainer who can't walk but likes to drive instead of fly, the Derby announcer forgetting Mine That Bird's name in midstretch and I have to tell ya Steve Asmussen: Mine That Bird makes Kensei look like a first time starter with the Rodney Dangerfield thing.

On the other hand is Summer Bird (photo left). Bred in Kentucky and raised in Florida by his Arkansas owners orginally from India, Summer Bird was just another unraced 3-year-old in March, a maiden only winner in the grade 2 Arkansas Derby, a good six-place finisher as a longshot in the Derby, an 11-1 winner of the Belmont and no match for Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell. Trainer Tim Ice has all the name recognition of the Starlight Vocal Band but is at least no longer a one hit wonder with Summer Bird's Travers win.

Liike brother Mine That, Summer can run. He just has a different way of going about things. While Mine That Bird likes to lay back early and launch as if leaving Cape Kennedy, Summer Bird slowly orbits the track before hitting his thrusters as if using only his slower but steadier momentum for the success of the mission. Just as he did in the Travers.

Although he was much closer to the lead than jockey Kent Desormeaux had wanted, Summer Bird galloped along stalking longshot Our Edge and Kensei. Around the turn, with Desormeaux's hands remaining patiently motionless, Summer Bird seemed to widen his stride alone and had worn down the two leaders by the time Desormeaux allowed him to run at the top of the stretch.

Summer Bird became the 30th horse to win both the Belmont and the Travers, joining Birdstone who won both races in 2004. Many of those previous 29 became Champion 3-Year-Old Male including Point Given ('01), Temperence Hill ('80), Arts and Letters ('69) and Damascus in 1967. Now Summer Bird will try to join that group.

Much of that depends on his next two starts which appears to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup against older horses on October 3 at Belmont Park before the Breeders' Cup Classic in November in California.

Belmont Stakes, The Test of Champions

The Belmont Stakes is known as "The Test of Champions." That moniker is attributed mostly to the long, 1-1/2 mile distance of the Belmont but it is the race's place in the racing schedule that also makes it an examination of endurance and stamina.

The Kentucky Derby is traditionally run on the first Saturday in May. The Preakness is just two weeks later. Then there is three weeks between the second and third leg of the Triple Crown. This grueling series of three races in just five weeks also comes after a trying spring of running in very competitive races such as the Florida Derby, Louisiana Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial and others. And those are just the final preps that are usually proceeded by two, three or four races before that in most pre-Triple Crown campaigns.

Legendary trainer Charlie Whittingham once said thoroughbreds are like strawberries - they can go bad on you overnight. So you can imagine how special and talented a horse must be to survive the Triple Crown only to have it culminate with the 12 furlong Belmont.

A closer look at the contenders for Saturday's race illustrates this point. Only pre-race favorite Mine That Bird and the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Flying Private have started in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. Mine That Bird will be making his fifth start this year after prepping for the Derby on the sub-major league oval of Sunland Park near El Paso, Texas. Iron horse Flying Private will be making his ninth start of the year and will be the only Belmont starter to have raced in every month of 2009.

Chocolate Candy, Dunkirk, Mr. Hot Stuff and Summer Bird started in the Derby but skipped the Preakness. Luv Gov started in the Preakness, but missed the Derby. Charitable Man and Miner's Escape make their first appearances in a Triple Crown race.

In the last ten runnings of the Belmont only Afleet Alex in 2005 and Point Given in 2001 have won the Belmont after starting in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. The last two winners, Da' Tara last year and the filly Rags to Riches in 2007 were both newcomers to the Triple Crown.