Doors of Opportunity Open Wide in Santa Anita Derby

If they hadn’t run the Florida Derby (g.r 1) last weekend, this Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) would not look as enticing as perhaps it is now. But they did run the Florida Derby, and three of the four most promising contenders on the east coast threw in clunker efforts in Gulfstream Park’s marquee event and main prep race for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. The highly regarded To Honor and Serve ran an exhausting looking third, Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) winner Soldat was even further back in fifth while Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) winner Stay Thirsty finished seventh.

Take nothing away from Florida Derby winner Dialed In and long shot runner-up Shackleford. They both ran very nice races that will garner attention from punters on Kentucky Derby Day. But even with the defection from the Santa Anita Derby by morning line favorite Premier Pegasus, there remains several horses with the potential to put forth better efforts than To Honor and Serve and his also ran compadres in Florida.

Ironically Jaycito, who inherits the early favoritism in the Santa Anita Derby when Premier Pegasus was scratched, has a resume eerily similar to that of To Honor and Serve before the Florida Derby. Both were highly regarded early this year based on their success as two-year-olds. Both also had disappointing debuts. Jaycito was beaten by nearly eight lengths by Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) at Santa Anita on Mar. 12. To Honor and Serve was third, beaten nearly seven lengths by Soldat in the Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 26.

Jaycito will need to show marked improvement Saturday in the 1-1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby in order to be among the serious in the Kentucky Derby May 7. The late running son of Victory Gallup will also need an honest pace in the early stages of the Santa Anita Derby in order to maximize his running style.

There is also the pair of Silver Medallion (photo left) and Anthony’s Cross, two winners of graded stakes on the west coast early in the Kentucky Derby prep season. Silver Medallion won the El Camino Real Derby (gr. 3) at Golden Gate Fields way back on Feb. 12. Anthony’s Cross took the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. 2) on the same day at Santa Anita. Ironically, neither has started since. But Anthony’s Cross trainer Eoin Harty has watched his son of Indian Charlie put in a couple of bullet morning works since. Silver Medallion trainer, Steve Asmussen, has been more conservative with his Derby prospect in the mornings, but that should not reflect too much on his potential in the Santa Anita Derby. Certainly Asmussen has a penchant for timing his horses' training with their optimum races.

Trainer John Shirreffs of Zenyata fame, has a newcomer to stakes competition in the Santa Anita Derby in Mr. Commons. After finishing sixth in his first start at Hollywood Park, Mr. Commons seemed to excel on the Santa Anita turf, breaking his maiden by five and-a-half lengths in January. Shirreffs then tried his son of Artie Schiller on the main track and he defeated allowance colts at one mile.

Comma to the Top may be another to watch for the Santa Anita Derby. After winning five consecutive races from October to December including the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park, he was among the highest regarded in his three-year-old class. But a fourth-place finish behind Silver Medallion in the El Camino Real and a similarly disappointing fourth in the San Felipe behind winner Premier Pegasus, and Comma to the Top was pushed off most lists of serious Kentucky Derby contenders. Among those lists were those held by trainer Peter Miller and owners Gary Barber, Roger Birnbaum, and Kevin Tsujihara. They have said they have decided not to take their colt to Kentucky. Perhaps a big race in the Santa Anita Derby will change that.

No matter which horses go on to Kentucky after the Santa Anita Derby, two big doors have opened for all those hoping to make a Run for the Roses. Last week three top Kentucky Derby contenders put in less that impressive performances in the Florida Derby while locally, morning line favorite Premier Pegasus was scratched from the Santa Anita Derby with a fracture to his left cannon bone. Say nothing of the $1 million purse that offers $600,000 to the winner and $200,000 to second. All personal accounting aside, those checks each appear to have enough graded stakes earnings to qualify the recipient for the Kentucky Derby.

The question now is: Who will take those opportunities to capitalize and walk through the door at Santa Anita that leads to Churchill Downs.

Derby Hopefuls Begin to Face Kentucky Fried Pressure Cooker

Kentucky is famous, of course, for its namesake Derby, quality bourbon, limestone, caves and a certain fried chicken that carries the state’s namesake. Suggesting what KFC founder Kentucky Col. Harland David Sanders might have once said, “start breadin’ the chicken. The pressure cooker is heatin’ up.” That is exactly what begins to happen this time of year for those with aspirations of being in Louisville for the Derby – the pressure begins to build.

There are three big stakes this Saturday on the trail to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), and each race has a recognizable star on this relatively young path to the run for the roses.

Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) winner Brethren should go to the post as the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2) at Tampa Bay Downs in Florida. Just across the state in Hallendale, Florida near Miami, last year’s Champion Two-Year-Old Male and current Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo (photo left), will make his 2011 debut in the $100,000 Timely Writer Stakes. While on the west coast, Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) winner Jaycito makes his first start of the year in the grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

While two of these stars have something to prove, another is under much less pressure. That is if you look at it a certain way.

Brethren, a half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, must legitimize his easy victory in the Sam Davis in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2). In winning the Feb. 12 Sam Davis, Brethren handled the field with ease, winning by four lengths while under the wraps of jockey Ramon Dominguez. Despite the apparent easy victory, the son of Distorted Humor came under criticism after he recorded a time of 1:45.07 for the 1-1/16 miles. It was the slowest Sam Davis since Andromeda’s Hero came home in 1:46.73 after a bumpy trip in 2005. Brethren’s 84 Beyer from that day is the lowest “Best Beyer” of the 20 leading contenders for the Derby according to Daily Racing Form.

Brethren also has money concerns. He currently is tied with Sweet Ducky at number 20, (each with $120,000), on the graded stakes earnings list used to determine the 20 Kentucky Derby starters. Nobody knows exactly how much graded earnings it will take to get a starting spot in the Derby, but it is safe to say, that $120,000 is not going to cut it. It took $218,750 to get into the Derby last year. The $210,000 first-place check for the Tampa Bay Derby would certainly ease those concerns while boosting Brethren's graded earnings to $330,000. However, the $70,000 second-place payout in the Tampa Bay Derby would likely leave work to do for Brethren to get to Louisville on Derby Day.


Further west, Jaycito also has a few things to prove in order for him to punch his ticket to Kentucky in May. Although he is a grade 1 winner with $200,000 in graded earnings, there is likely some work to do. Jaycito supporters and trainer Bob Baffert (photo right) have other concerns based on his suddenly swerving to the outside rail coming out of the first turn of the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) last Fall. After that erratic move, Jaycito would go on to finish a lackluster seventh in the Juvenile, nearly 20 lenghts behind winner Uncle Mo.

Jaycito has been working very well at both Hollywood Park and Santa Anita coming into the San Felipe, but as Baffert told Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen, “So far, he’s minding his manners, but you don’t know what he’ll do in a race,” Baffert said. “It will be interesting. We’ll learn a lot about Jaycito [in the San Felipe].” Jaycito moved into Baffert’s barn following his 2-year-old campaign, taking over for trainer Mike Mitchell, so Baffert has never saddled Jaycito for a race.

Like Jaycito, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo lifts the lid on his much anticipated 2011 campaign. But unlike Jaycito and stablemate Brethren, Uncle Mo will start under little pressure. Of course there is the pressure of his high expectations after his sensational 2-year-old campaign. After he broke his maiden by 14 lengths at Saratoga in New York, he came back to win the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. Uncle Mo ended his 2-year-old season by producing the most impressive Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory since Arazi in 1991.

Sure, there is the pressure of being the Kentucky Derby favorite in March. But Uncle Mo leads the graded stakes earnings list with $1,260,000 so that reduces the stress for his connections to a point.

Uncle Mo should be able to outrun his five opponents in the Timely Writer wearing cowboy boots and tight Wrangler jeans, but this is horse racing and heavy favorites lose races (Rachel Alexandra say what?!). So as big a surprise as it may be, even a loss may not be a catastrophe for Uncle Mo.

Yes there will be many in horse racing bitterly disappointed. (Blame, Zenyatta say what?!). And the skeptics will come out of the woodwork as they should. But Uncle Mo won’t be the first 2-year-old super star to disappoint at three. In fact only Street Sense has pulled the Breeders’ Cup Juvey-Kentucky Derby double since the Breeders’ Cup was established in 1984.

But a loss in the Timely Writer leaves some time for the son of Indian Charlie. Uncle Mo will likely start next in the April 9 Wood Memorial (gr. 1) as New York owner Mike Repole has said for months. That means Uncle Mo will go into the Kentucky Derby off two starts (pending injury), and that is not something that should be of much concern to trainer Todd Pletcher and owners WinStar Farm. After all, the last four Kentucky Derby winners came into the classic off of two starts that year. The old handicapping angle of third start off of a lay-off seems to be a prudential formula for the Kentucky Derby in recent years for sure.

Regardless of the spin one might put on a Kentucky Derby hopeful in mid-March, it is without doubt that the pressure is beginning to build with every Derby prep race and crossed off date on the calendar. Some are under more pressure than others. But then again, pressure can be a relative term.

Nobody knows that more than the connections of Brethren, Jaycito and Uncle Mo this weekend.

Kentucky Derby Trail Rocky For 2011 Debuts

It all started on Jan. 20 when Mucho Macho Man finished fourth as the favorite in the grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Mucho Macho Man was making his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull after finishing second behind Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) hopeful To Honor and Serve in the grade 2 Remsen and grade 2 Nashua Stakes in his final races last year.

Then Mucho Macho Man came back Feb. 19 to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 2) at Fair Grounds, defeating Santiva in second and favorite Rogue Romance in third. Like Mucho Macho Man a month before, Rogue Romance was making his career debut after finishing third in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) behind Uncle Mo last fall. And like Mucho Macho Man, Rogue Romance stumbled.

A week prior to the Risen Star, similar circumstances and results occurred at Northern California’s Golden Gate Fields in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. 3). The highly regarded star making his first start of 2011 was Comma to the Top, winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park in December. Like his classmates, Comma to the Top disappointed, running fourth, 4-1/2 lengths behind winner Silver Medalion.

Two days after the Risen Star, J.P.’s Gusto makes his 2011 debut by running a troubled second in the Southwest Stakes Feb. 21 at Oaklawn Park. As a 2-year-old, the son of Successful Appeal won the Hollywood Juvenile Championship (gr. 3), Best Pal Stakes (gr. 2), and Del Mar Futurity (gr. 1). In the Southwest Stakes, J.P’s Gusto was making his first start of the year and first since he was sixth in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November.

In the Southwest, J.P.’s Gusto had plenty of excuses, having been boxed in no where to run from the half-mile pole until the field turned for home nearly a quarter of a mile later. His loss may be easier to understand and accept compared to the others, but it also remains a less than perfect preparation for the Derby.

Five days later at Gulfstream Park, To Honor and Serve made his 2011 debut and flopped like the other promising 3-year-olds chasing dreams of roses. As eventual winner Soldat turned for home To Honor and Serve had a shot at him but never responed. Now trainer Bill Mott is expected to start To Honor and Serve next in the Florida Derby (gr. 1), Apr. 3 at Gulfstream Park.

Stay Thirsty won his first start of the year Saturday while taking the grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, but there was much that might concern trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole, who also owns Uncle Mo. Stay Thirsty certainly did not dominate the Gotham field as expected and Toby’s Corner was the only stakes winner in the group. The son of Benardini switched to his wrong lead turning for home and never went back to his correct lead again until nearing the wire. And with stablemate Uncle Mo being pointed toward the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) next month, Stay Thirsty may have to leave New York for his final Kentucky Derby prep. That should not be too much of a challenge as Stay Thirsty has been stabled all winter in Florida, but it might be a late schedule change none-the-less.

There are two stars from last year yet to make their debut on the Kentucky Derby trail, but their days are coming soon. Perhaps the most anticipated is Uncle Mo, who is expected to run In either the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park or the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2) in Tampa. Both races are this Saturday, Mar. 12 and the connections behind last year's Champion Two-Year-Old Male have said they are prepared for Tampa should the Timely Writer not attract enough competitors.

Then there is Jaycito in Southern California in trainer Bob Baffert’s barn. Winner of the Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) last fall during the Oak Tree meeting at Hollywood Park, Jaycito was an erratic seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile under a different trainer. but multiple fast works at both Hollywood Park and Santa Anita have Baffert pointing Jaycito toward the San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) Mar. 12.

With two months left until the Kentucky Derby, there has not been a dazzling debut of a star from 2010. Yet. In fact, there have been few winning ones in the Kentucky Derby prep races that have dotted the calendars during this spring. Of course the most anticipated debut this year has yet to come in Uncle Mo. But we have just days to wait for that. Jaycito and the Steve Asmussen-trained Astrology are a few others and they’re just more than a weeks away from their first start this year.

So here’s hoping for success to all 2011 debuts. And it’s nice to be dazzled every once-in-a-while too.