The Ins And Outs Of The Kentucky Derby

Getting an early start on any project can sometimes be the key definition between success and failure. “The early bird gets the worm” as the old saying goes. Trying to apply that benefit to betting on the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands – or horse betting on any other race for that matter – can sometimes add to confusion of an already challenging task. Because in horse racing, significant changes can happen in an instant while others seem to just come to the front under the circumstances and pressures of owning, training or riding a thoroughbred bound for the Kentucky Derby.

The conditions of the Kentucky Derby dictate that should more than the maximum 20 horses enter, graded stakes earnings will be used to determine those 20 horses eligible to run. Every year since 2004, the Kentucky Derby has overfilled at the entry box.

Last Saturday morning the cut-off for eligibility to enter the Derby belonged to 20th ranked Santiva and his $242,397. Trainer Aidan O’Brien had also confirmed from Europe that UAE Derby (gr. UAE2) runner-up Master of Hounds (photo) would be entered into the Kentucky Derby. That late decision pushed pushed Watch Me Go out of the Derby with his $235,500 in graded earnings.

There were two graded races for 3-year-olds run last weekend that had the potential to impact the graded earnings list – the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. 3) at Keeneland and the grade 2 Jerome at Aqueduct. Despite the fact that both races had their respective grades, neither seems ideal for a last start before the Kentucky Derby. Both races were just a short two weeks away from the Derby. Horse of this calibre are accustomed to running more on a three or four-week cycle. Like the Blue Grass Stakes, also a Keeneland, the Lexington was run on the artificial Polytrack while the Derby is on natural dirt. And the Jerome was a one turn mile.

Champion trainer Steve Asmussen had horses in each race, but only Silver Medallion in the Lexington was believed to be headed to Kentucky. He also had Astrology in the Jerome, but had indicated to Churchill Downs officials that he was not likely to run in the Derby (though Astrology already had enough graded earnings to be ranked a comfortable 17th in graded earnings with his $281,893).

Silver Medallion, on the other hand, needed some help. His $184,397 was far enough below Santiva’s earnings, that Silver Medallion needed either the $120,000 winner’s check or the $40,000 second-place earnings to garner a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Silver Medallion ran fourth in the Blue Grass behind winner Derby Kitten and the $10,000 check did little ti help qualify for the Derby. Astrology, however ran a good second in the Jerome, spawning a case of Derby fever that co-owner George Bolton had to deal with. Perhaps it was just for a few moments in Bolton's mind or maybe even a day or two, but Astrology was possible for the Derby. That would have pushed Santiva out and Jaycito into the bottom spot with $250,000. That also pushed stable mate Silver Medallion all the way down to the 25th spot, pushing down hopes of Silver Medallion connections to make the Derby.

Asmussen received some good news that day that jockey Corey Nakatani had committed to riding Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) runner-up Nehro. Nakatani had also been riding Santa Anita Derby second, Comma to the Top but had chosen Nehro for the Derby. Comma to the Top trainer Gary Barber was prepared and quickly named jockey Pat Valenzuela to ride in Kentucky. Valenzuela won the 1989 Kentucky Derby aboard Sunday Silence.

Then Tuesday came and the defections began. As expected, J P’s Gusto was taken out of the Derby after finishing seventh in the Rebel (gr. 2) and eighth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1). Soon Bolton came with the expected news that Astrology would in fact, not run.

Santiva and Watch Me Go were back in the Derby. Then trainer Bob Baffert, who had just announced that Jaycito would not run, confirmed the same about Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor. The Factor had been recovering successfully from surgery to repair an entrapped epiglottis that was the likely cause of The Factor's dismal third in the Arkansas Derby. But the son of War Front was nowhere near ready to compete in the Kentucky Derby.

Suddenly, Shackleford and Twinspired are in the Kentucky Derby and the cutoff has gone all the way down to $197,500. That again takes us back to Silver Medallion, who now is on the bubble, ranked at 21st with his $194,334.

As soon as Twinspired gets the nod, jockey Robbie Alabardo is forced into a decision between the second-place finisher in the Blue Grass and Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) winner Animal Kingdom. Albarado chose Animal Kingdom leaving Twinspired trainer Mike Maker without a rider. Maker was ready and quickly named Mike Smith to ride Twinspired. Smith won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard Giacomo and was the regular rider for Horse of the Year Zenyatta more recently.

One conundrum that hits Kentucky Derby owners and trainers each year this time, is the opportunity to replace a regular, lesser-known, regional jockey with a nationally established rider for the Run for the Roses. Derby experience can be vital to a jockey who needs to negotiate through the 19 other horses and all the potential trouble thereof. But it's usually the local guy that rode all those races that got the horse to the big dance.

In 2009, Calvin Borel (photo left) picked up the mount on longshot Mine That Bird, who had made his last start in the then un-graded Sunland Derby. Casey Lambert, a stalwart rider in the Southwest for many years, had ridden Mine That Bird in his races at Sunland but had never ridden in the Kentucky Derby. Borel, who had won the Kentucky Derby on Street Sense two years earlier and was a regular rider at Churchill Downs, was given the mount on Mine That Bird and together they won the Derby.

This year, the Sunland Derby was a grade 3 and winner Twice The Appeal is in Kentucky with trainer Jeff Bonde. And like 2009, Borel takes the mount on the Sunland Derby horse while jockey Christian Santiago Reyes, while the 2009 champion apprentice in earnings, bowed out to the more experienced Borel.

The team behind Decisive Moment took the loyalty road with regard to their riding chores. Kerwin Clarke, a 52-year-old mainstay on the Louisiana circuit, picked up the mount on Decisive Moment because of his experience riding at Delta Downs in the Delta Downs Jackpot (gr. 3) last November. They finished second at Delta but won the ungraded Jean Lafitte the next race. Back in graded competition, Decisive Moment was fifth in the Risen Star (gr. 2) then second in the Spiral, but Saturday, owner Ruben Sierra announced that the 52-year-old Clarke – with former Derby winners such as Kent Desormeaux and Edgar Prado without mounts, would get the mount on Decisive Moment in the Kentucky Derby.

When J P’s Gusto was withdrawn from the Derby Tuesday, it marked the second time in three years that jockey Cliff Berry lost his first chance to ride the Kentucky in the days leading up to the race. In 2009, Berry was set to ride Rebel Stakes winner Win Willy in Kentucky before his was withdrawn in the final week. The 48-year-old Berry has been a leading rider in Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas in recent years and won the 2011 grade 1 Oaklawn Handicap this year with Win Willy.

Just in case you're now comfortable with the Kentucky Derby field, the last chance for more graded earnings comes a week before the Kentucky Derby when they run the Derby Trial (gr. 3) Saturday night at Churchill.

Look For Lexington Winner Later

While Keeneland’s Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. 2) has not produced the number of Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) winners as its fellow grade 1 stakes leading up to the Run for the Roses, its graduates have been heard from later in the Triple Crown.

In the previous 40 runnings of the Lexington, only 1999 winner Charismatic has gone on to adorn the blanket of roses at Churchill Downs. This year, only Silver Medallion, with his $184,334 in graded earnings, is the only probable Lexington starter with a chance to qualify for the Kentucky Derby - and he probably needs the winner’s share of the $200,000 purse to do so.

Much of this, it can be assumed, is due to the fact that the Lexington is usually run just two weeks before the Kentucky Derby. Not including the grade 3 Cliff’s Edge Derby Trial Stakes (gr. 3) run at Churchill, the Lexington Stakes is sometimes thought of as that last chance to get the big dance. The Derby Trial is just seven days before the Kentucky Derby and is run at one mile - not the best conditions under which to prepare for the 1-1/4 mile Derby a week later.

The first and second Lexington Stakes were in 1936 and 1937 before being run as an overnight stake from 1938 to 1941 The Lexington was discontinued for the next 24 years but was run as the overnight Calumet Purse from 1973 to 1983 when the race was reinstalled into the Keeneland stakes schedule.

Our Native won the renewed 1-1/16 mile Lexington in 1973 but as one might suspect, 1973 was not a good year to attempt much in any of the Triple Crown races other than chase home Secretariat. And that is what Our Native did, finishing third behind second-place Sham in both the Derby and Preakness. However, the son of Exclusive Native would go on to win the Monmouth Invitational Handicap (gr. 1) and Ohio Derby (gr. 2) later that year.

Two years later, trainer Smiley Adams brought Master Derby to Keeneland from Fair Grounds where he won both the Louisiana Derby trial and Louisiana Derby. Pointed for the Kentucky Derby, Master Derby won both the Lexington Stakes and Blue Grass at Keeneland but could only muster a fourth behind Foolish Pleasure in the Kentucky Derby. Master Derby avenged that loss two weeks later by taking the Preakness Stakes and becoming the first in a long line of Lexington winners to do so.

Seven years after Our Native won his Lexington, his son Rockhill Native took the 1980 Lexington and Blue Grass but could only manage a fifth in the Derby behind winner Genuine Risk and a third in the Belmont Stakes behind Temperence Hill.

The 1988 Lexington Stakes was perhaps one of the more exciting in the race’s sporadic history with plenty of Triple Crown influence to come later.

Hall of Fame trainer Woody Stephens came to Lexington with Forty Niner, the Claiborne farm home-bred son of Mr. Prospector and champion 2-year-old colt the year before. After winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park in his 3-year-old debut, Forty Niner was upset by 32-1 long shot Brian’s Time in the Florida Derby. Wanting another race before the Kentucky Derby, Stephens opted for the Lexington.

Meanwhile New Orleans trainer Louie Roussel had been winning the Louisiana Derby Trial and Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds with his giant young son of Secretariat, Risen Star.

Around the far turn in the 1989 Lexington Stakes, Forty Niner looked as if he was comfortable on the lead and on his way to victory. But Risen Star had other intentions. Loping along comfortably in third leaving the half-mile marker, Risen Star accelerated so suddenly that new rider Jacinto Vasquez was concerned more with keeping Risen Star from running over Forty Niner than passing him as he stood in the saddle and steered with both hands. Forty Niner and jockey Pat Day came out of the turn in front, but by now Risen Star had carried Vasquez to the outside and within a few strides was even with Forty Niner. The two bobbed heads down the entire stretch with Risen Star getting to the finish first, but only by a head.

When the two got to the Kentucky Derby, they found themselves chasing the brilliantly fast filly Winning Colors and her jockey Gary Stevens. Both Forty Niner and Risen Star rallied to catch the fast filly but Forty Niner fell a head short in second. After the Vasquez ride in the Lexington, Roussel gave the Derby mount to Eddie Delahoussaye. Delahoussaye kept Risen Star clear in the Derby, but was forced to circle the entire field on the far turn before managing an unmenacing third.

That’s when the fun began.

Following the Derby, Pat Day vowed to not let Gary Stevens put his filly alone on the lead in the Preakness. Stevens took offense to the comments and the two future Hall of Fame riders went into the Preakness with plenty of bad blood between them.

Just as he promised before the Preakness, Day immediately put Forty Niner to the inside of Winning Colors and the two jockeys and horses bumped and fought each other the entire race. Day took Stevens and Winning Colors wide in the first turn and the two leaders found themselves running far from the rail and away from what was believed to be a slow inside part of the track that day at Pimlico. This time, Delahoussaye kept Risen Star closer in third when he again found his stride around the far turn. Delahoussaye took advantage of the large hole left on the rail and within moments had moved to the inside of the two leaders and passed them with ease. Risen Star pulled away at the top and easily won the Preakness by just less than two lengths over a charging Brian's Time in second.

The speed dual took its toll on both frontrunners as Winning Colors finished third while Forty Nine faded to seventh.

The 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes was no contest as the tall and long-striding Risen Star won the third leg of the Triple Crown by 14-1/2 lengths.

In 1991, Hansel would give jockey Jerry Bailey his third of a six Lexington Stakes, a record that stands today. Hansel would be a disappointing tenth in the Derby but would then come back to become the third Lexington winner to take the Preakness.

The winner of the 1997 Lexington, Touch Gold, would not run in either the Kentucky Derby or the Preakness, both races won by Silver Charm and trainer Bob Baffert. But the Belmont would be where Touch Gold made his mark, upsetting Silver Charm and the hopes many fans had for the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed 19 years earlier.

So when watching the Coolmore Lexington Stakes this weekend, one might want to take a few notes. They may not be much help in picking the winner of the Kentucky Derby, but the could be very useful in the weeks to follow.

Doors of Opportunity Open Wide in Santa Anita Derby

If they hadn’t run the Florida Derby (g.r 1) last weekend, this Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) would not look as enticing as perhaps it is now. But they did run the Florida Derby, and three of the four most promising contenders on the east coast threw in clunker efforts in Gulfstream Park’s marquee event and main prep race for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. The highly regarded To Honor and Serve ran an exhausting looking third, Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) winner Soldat was even further back in fifth while Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) winner Stay Thirsty finished seventh.

Take nothing away from Florida Derby winner Dialed In and long shot runner-up Shackleford. They both ran very nice races that will garner attention from punters on Kentucky Derby Day. But even with the defection from the Santa Anita Derby by morning line favorite Premier Pegasus, there remains several horses with the potential to put forth better efforts than To Honor and Serve and his also ran compadres in Florida.

Ironically Jaycito, who inherits the early favoritism in the Santa Anita Derby when Premier Pegasus was scratched, has a resume eerily similar to that of To Honor and Serve before the Florida Derby. Both were highly regarded early this year based on their success as two-year-olds. Both also had disappointing debuts. Jaycito was beaten by nearly eight lengths by Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) at Santa Anita on Mar. 12. To Honor and Serve was third, beaten nearly seven lengths by Soldat in the Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 26.

Jaycito will need to show marked improvement Saturday in the 1-1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby in order to be among the serious in the Kentucky Derby May 7. The late running son of Victory Gallup will also need an honest pace in the early stages of the Santa Anita Derby in order to maximize his running style.

There is also the pair of Silver Medallion (photo left) and Anthony’s Cross, two winners of graded stakes on the west coast early in the Kentucky Derby prep season. Silver Medallion won the El Camino Real Derby (gr. 3) at Golden Gate Fields way back on Feb. 12. Anthony’s Cross took the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. 2) on the same day at Santa Anita. Ironically, neither has started since. But Anthony’s Cross trainer Eoin Harty has watched his son of Indian Charlie put in a couple of bullet morning works since. Silver Medallion trainer, Steve Asmussen, has been more conservative with his Derby prospect in the mornings, but that should not reflect too much on his potential in the Santa Anita Derby. Certainly Asmussen has a penchant for timing his horses' training with their optimum races.

Trainer John Shirreffs of Zenyata fame, has a newcomer to stakes competition in the Santa Anita Derby in Mr. Commons. After finishing sixth in his first start at Hollywood Park, Mr. Commons seemed to excel on the Santa Anita turf, breaking his maiden by five and-a-half lengths in January. Shirreffs then tried his son of Artie Schiller on the main track and he defeated allowance colts at one mile.

Comma to the Top may be another to watch for the Santa Anita Derby. After winning five consecutive races from October to December including the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park, he was among the highest regarded in his three-year-old class. But a fourth-place finish behind Silver Medallion in the El Camino Real and a similarly disappointing fourth in the San Felipe behind winner Premier Pegasus, and Comma to the Top was pushed off most lists of serious Kentucky Derby contenders. Among those lists were those held by trainer Peter Miller and owners Gary Barber, Roger Birnbaum, and Kevin Tsujihara. They have said they have decided not to take their colt to Kentucky. Perhaps a big race in the Santa Anita Derby will change that.

No matter which horses go on to Kentucky after the Santa Anita Derby, two big doors have opened for all those hoping to make a Run for the Roses. Last week three top Kentucky Derby contenders put in less that impressive performances in the Florida Derby while locally, morning line favorite Premier Pegasus was scratched from the Santa Anita Derby with a fracture to his left cannon bone. Say nothing of the $1 million purse that offers $600,000 to the winner and $200,000 to second. All personal accounting aside, those checks each appear to have enough graded stakes earnings to qualify the recipient for the Kentucky Derby.

The question now is: Who will take those opportunities to capitalize and walk through the door at Santa Anita that leads to Churchill Downs.