Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass are Open Affairs

After watching Eskendereya's magnificent Wood Memorial (gr. 1) performance last week, one may wonder about the significance of this weekend's two grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands prep races. Of the 18 3-year-olds entered in the $1 million Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park and $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, only Uh Oh Bango has a race with a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure. And that was a 102 Beyer last September in the $53,000 Prairie Meadows Juvenile.

Eskendereya has done so in his last two races with a 106 Beyer in the Wood and a 102 in the Fountain of Youth. Not since Point Given in 2001 has a 3-year-old come into the Kentucky Derby looking so dominant. In fact, Point Given is the only horse during the last decade to go to the post with less than 2-1 odds.

Point Given finished fifth in the Kentucky Derby. Ironically, that is the average finish of the last ten Kentucky Derby favorites. Only Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000, Street Sense in 2007 and Big Brown the following year have won the Run for the Roses as the most popular betting choice.

The Arkansas Derby has produced two Derby winners during that time and seems to have the stronger cast on Saturday.

Todd Pletcher continues to unleash his 2010 armament on Derby contenders by bringing Super Saver to Arkansas and has been tabbed the 9-5 morning line favorite. Owned by WinStar Farm, Super Saver was third behind Odysseus and Schoolyard dreams as the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby March 13 in his first start of the year.

But Noble's Promise may wind up as the fan's betting choice in Arkansas as well as the winner of the race if he can continue to improve off of his only start of the year. Trained by Kenneth McPeek, Nobel's Promise just missed hanging on against the highly regarded Lookin' at Lucky in the grade 2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn, also March 13. Although Lookin' at Lucky was rattled with trouble that day, Noble's Promise was forced three-wide on the turn in the Rebel and still produced a field best 98 Beyer.

Four-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas still has Dublin on the Derby trail after his third place finish in the Rebel. He also was plagued by bad luck as he was forced four and five wide on both turns and appeared to bump Lookin at Lucky down the backstretch as well. Oaklawn Park veteran Terry Thompson gets the return mount on the son of Afleet Alex and may be looking for a slow and relaxing early trip Saturday.



In Lexington, Kentucky Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince has been installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite, just ahead of Tampa Bay Derby winner Odysseus at 7-2. Just behind them are the Pletcher duo of Aikenite and Interactif at 4-1.

Again, we have a wide open race in which I'm most interested to see Odysseus run again. His victory in the Tampa Bay Derby, while not overly impressive on paper, was about as much as one would want to see in terms of determination and late acceleration.

After appearing as if finished coming out of the far turn (even track announcer Richard Gunter called Odysseus as done for the day), jockey Rajiv Maragh suddenly found more inside the final eighth of a mile. By that time, they were behind a wall of horses and as if suddenly being recharged, began to run again and somehow got for the win. That made it 3 consecutive for the Tom Albertrani trainee and with any improvement in maturity, should be the one to beat at Keeneland.



Personal Ensign Dies

Personal Ensign, the Zenyatta of the late 1980s passed away at her home at Claiborne Farmin Paris, Kentucky. She was 26.

Ranked among the greatest racing mares of all time with an undefeated record in 13 career starts. Her two most memorable races included the 1988 Whitney Stakes (gr. 1) when she defeated Gulch and King's Swan as the odds-on favorite and the thrilling Breeders' Cup Distaff later that year. In her final race, Personal Ensign appeared to be defeated by Kentucky Derby winning filly Winning Colors only to get up to win a nose to cap her perfect career.

A Closer Look At The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Jinx

The psychiatric condition commonly referred to a PBCS (Post Breeders' Cup Syndrome) aflects thousands of racing fans each year at this time with anxiety and mild depression caused by a sudden decrease in handicapping and the placing of losing trifecta and Pick-4 tickets into a tax records shoe box.

Researchers believe the side effects of this affliction may be reduced this year due to the embattled debate over Horse of the Year, but recommend that persons suffering from PBCS be prepared for a reoccurance of symptoms once the annoncement is made as to who gets the golden Eclipse Award.

Little is know about this disease other than early handicapping of the Kentucky Derby and perscribed daily plays on Gulfstream, Hollywood Park, Santa Anita and Aqueduct winter racing have been known to ease the suffering.

I'm not a psychiatrist... I just play one on this blog.

I must warn you that my therapy begins by taking you to a very dark, dark place that many of you may have already erased from your memory due to the shock and pain you may have felt when you first experienced the event.

I'm sorry. But I think it's important that we talk about the Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile now. I know Lookin at Lucky may have been your key horse. Or if he wasn't, I doubt Vale of York was. It's painful. I know. But let's push through this together.

History tells us that Vale of York has little chance of pulling off the Breeders' Cup Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double. Only Street Sense in 2006-07 has been able to accomplish the feat of taking the Juvenile and repeating in the Kentucky Derby winner's circle some six months later.

His connections of trainer Saeed bin Suroor and Goldophin Racing certainly have a good record of getting horses to the Kentucky Derby - having been to the run for the roses with seven horses going back to Worldly Manner in 1999 who finished seventh. The problem lies in looking at their results after each respective Derby. As a team their best finish came in 2000 when China Visit finished sixth and Curule was seventh. They have also finished eighth twice with Express Tour in 2001 and Regal Ransom last year; ninth with Essence of Dubai in 2002 and 14th with Desert Party, also in 2009.

The news doesn't get much better for Juvenile runner-up Lookin at Lucky, although he races from the barn of trainer Bob Baffert who has won three Kentucky Derbies with Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem.

The historical bad news is two-fold for Lookin at Lucky however. First, none of those Baffert-trained Derby winners even started in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and never has a Juvenile runner-up come back to win the Derby. Although 10 of the Juvenile bride's maids have made to the Derby the following year, the best Derby finish by a Juvey second-place finisher goes to Easy Goer who pulled off a Juvenile-Derby runner-up/runner-up double in 1988-89.

Interestingly though, three Juvenile place horses have come back to win the Preakness. Point Given, 2nd in the 2000 Juvenile behind Macho Uno, won the 2001 Preakness and Belmont; and Afleet Alex, second behind Wilko in the 2004 Juvenile, won the Preakness in 2005. Tank's Prospect, second in the first Breeders' Cup Juvenile in 1984, got it all started when he came back to win the Preakness the following year.

Also interesting is the fact that Juvenile third-place finishers have had more success in the Derby than any of their top two finishing counterparts. Good news for Noble's Promise, but don't go racing to the future book location near you just yet.

Success for Juvy third-place finishers started with the first Breeders' Cup winner when Spend a Buck finished third in 1984 behind Chief's Crown and Tank's Prospect, then came back to win the 1985 Derby. Alysheba did the same thing two years later finishing third behind Capote and Qualify in the Juvenile, before taking the 1987 Derby.

Since then, things have been a little dry for the Juvenile bronze medalists so-to-speak. Tejano Run finished third in the 1994 Juvenile behind Timber Country and Eltish before finishing second in the Derby behind Grindstone; and Cat Thief finished third in both the 1998 Juvenile and 1999 Kentucky Derby.

Now I don't know if I've given you the winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby or if any of this will be of much five months from now. But we've helped create an awareness for those suffering from PBCS... and I hope our time together has helped.

Hollywood Park Attracts Breeders' Cup Stars

Hollywood Park, draped in a cloud of uncertainty about their future and opening the Fall meeting on of all days Friday the 13th, has been blessed with plenty of good news this week from Breeders' Cup horsemen.

Trainer Bobby Frankel assistant Humberto Ascanio has indicated that Ventura, second in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (gr. 1) at Santa Anita, is expected to return in Hollywood Park's $300,000 Matriarch (gr. IT) on Nov. 28. Frankel, who ha been absent from the barn for sometime battling cancer, has won the one-mile turf race a record eight times.

Ventura, who is expected to retire to the breeding farm for the 2010 breeding season, won the 2008 Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint and has won two of five starts including the grade 1 Woodbine Mile in Canada this year.



The 2-year-old racing for the 27-day Autumn meeting at Hollywood Park also got a boost from Kentucky-based trainer Kenneth McPeek when he announced that his powerful group of Breeders' Cup freshmen would stay in Southern California.

The two biggest young stars, Noble's Promise and Beautician are scheduled to run in the track's premier 2-year-old races on the weekend of Dec. 19-20. Noble's Promise, third in the Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. 1), is being pointed for the $750,000 Cash Call Futurity (gr. 1) while Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. 1) runner-up Beautician is scheduled to run the next day in the $300,000 Hollywood Starlet (gr. 1).

McPeek has also said that Bridgetown (2nd in Juvenile Turf), House of Grace (3rd in Juvenile Fillies Turf) and Juvenile Fillies eighth-place finisher Connie and Michael will remain in Southern California.