In Pursuit of the Kentucky Derby Formula

Is there a formula for winning the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1)?

Certainly, there is no proven recipe for breeders to produce a Kentucky Derby winner. The last ten Kentucky Derby winners have been sired by nine different stallions. The Maria’s Mon is the only stallion during that span to have sired two winners having sired 2001 Derby winner Monarchos and last year’s winner Super Saver. That in itself put Maria’s Mon (photo right) on an elite list with only 18 other stallions that have produced more than one Kentucky Derby winner. Before Maria’s Mon, the most recent stallions with two Derby winners were Alydar (Alysheba, 1987, Strike The Gold, ’91) and Halo (Sunny’s Halo, ’83 and Sunday Silence, ’89). Falsetto, Virgil, Sir Gallahad III and Bull Lea all sired three Kentucky Derby winners with others stallions with two.

On the bottom side of the last ten Derby winnering pedigrees, only Dixieland Band is listed on as the dam’s sire on more than one. The former Lane’s End stallion sired Regal Band, the dam of Monarchos; and Street Sense's mother Bedazzle.

There is no Kentucky Derby winning map for owners either. Owners spent some $400 million on yearling’s at Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton Company public yearling auctions in 2008 in search of a 2010 Kentucky Derby winner. The next year they spent an addition $64 million on two-year-olds in training at three additional Fasig-Tipton Sales Florida, Maryland and Texas. Unfortunately for all of them, the eventual winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby would be the home-bred Super Saver – bred and raised by his owners at their WinStar Farm in Versailles, Kentucky.

Since creating his Godolphin Stable in 1992, perhaps no one has invested more money in thoroughbred horse racing than Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. He has been among the leading buyers at nearly every major thoroughbred auction in the world, spending hundreds of millions of dollars. Sheikh Mohammed also has major racing operations in Europe, North America, Japan and in his home of Dubai, UAE. His Darley has become a massive international breeding operation with farms in Kentucky, England, Dubai, Japan and Australia. Since 1992, Sheikh Mohammed has owned or was in partnership on nine Kentucky Derby starters. His best finish has be sixth with China Bowl in 2000. Money can't buy you love or a Kentucky Derby winner.

What about trainers then? Surely there must be a plan that works well for the conditioners. No, but there seems to at least be some clues. Since Lil E. Tee won the Kentucky Derby in 1992, every Derby winner has shared at least three criteria. They all raced as a two-year and had won their first race by January of their 3-year-old year. At times, the third principal is out of the trainer’s control. But every winner of those 19 Kentucky Derbies has a sharp race, (defined as finishing fourth or better and within five lengths or less lengths from the winner) in their start just previous to the Kentucky Derby.

There have been some other guidelines met by nearly all of the previous 19 Kentucky Derby winners, but not quite. Since 1992, only 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm did not run in a two-turn race by February of his 3-year-old year. Only Mine That Bird (2010) and War Emblem (2002) had not recorded at least a 90 Beyer Speed Figure before February and only Funny Cide (2003) and Sea Hero (1993) had not been first or second in a two-turn race by March.

Between Lil E. Tee in 1992 and Barbaro in 2006, every Kentucky Derby winner had at least three starts before the Derby during their three-year-old year. Since then, Street Sense (‘07), Big Brown (‘08), Mine That Bird and Super Saver, came to Churchill Downs in consecutive years with only two starts in their respective sophomore campaigns.

During the last four years, Calvin Borel seems to have the jockey secret down. The rail-hugging Borel has now won three of the last four Kentucky Derbies with Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Super Saver. In the last 19 years, only Kent Desormeaux (photo left) has won the Derby three times winning with Real Quiet (1989) Fusaichi Pegasus (2001) and Big Brown. Gary Stevens won three Kentucky Derbies going back to his first aboard Winning Colors in 1988. Since, he won the Run for the Roses with Thunder Gulch (’95) and Silver Charm (’97).

Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack have the record for most Kentucky Derby wins with five each while Bill Shoemaker has four. Arcaro won with Lawrin, Whirlaway, Hoop Jr., Citation and Hill Gail between 1938 and 1952. Hartack won the Iron Liege, Venetian Way, Decidedly, Northern Dancer and Majestic Prince from 1957 through ’69. Shoemaker won with Swaps, Tomy Lee, Lucky Debonair and Ferdinand from 1955 through 1986.

There are no paths, plans or recipes that can guarantee a Kentucky Derby winner. Watching the gut wrenching decisions of owners and trainers to withdraw horses like Toby’s Corner, The Factor and To Honor and Serve to name a few, illustrates that getting to the Kentucky Derby is a monumental task. And if plans existed and were flawlessly executed, the pull of a bad pill at the post position draw or a second, third, or fourth bump in the first half-mile of the race can shatter all plans and flawless executions.

Perhaps that is what makes it the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Of All Kentucky Derby Lists, Only One Rules

When a horse steps onto the trail for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), there are two types of races they must win in order to prove themselves worthy of going to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May. There are the horse races on the track in which they must win or compete strongly, and the graded stakes earnings race. The needed victories in races seem obvious, but it is the graded stakes earnings list that determines who gets the precious 20 spots in the starting gate for the Derby.

And then there is the challenge of getting through the remainder of the trail injury free, hope racing luck at least leans in your direction and outperform the one hundred or so 3-year-olds that are still seriously on the Kentucky trail. Seriously is a relative term here. There is an apparent difference between the those that may be serious contenders and those whose human counterparts are seriously dreaming about a spot in the Derby… but little else.

Yet a look back at the grade stakes earnings list of Kentucky Derby contenders in the middle of March last year may give more credence to the so-called dreamers. Of the top ten on the graded stakes earnings list as of March 16 last year, only half made it to the Derby. They were Looking at Lucky (left), Noble’s Promise, Discreetly Mine, Dublin and Homeboy Kris.

Of the eventual top three finishers in the 136th running of the Derby last year, only Super Saver was ranked in the top 20 at this time last year AND he was ranked 20th. Runner-up Ice Box was not ranked in the top 40 and Paddy O’Prado came in at number 23.

Ice Box was not the only Derby starter in last year's Derby not to be ranked in the top 40 of 3-year-old graded stakes earners in mid-March. Stately Victor, Mission Impazible, Devil May Care, Dean’s Kitten and Lines of David were all ranked below the 40 mark in graded earnings this time last year. Make Music For Me, the fourth-place finisher in the Derby, was ranked 12th on the graded stakes earnings list in mid-March last year, yet became the last to qualify for a slot in the Derby starting gate with $55,000.

One can expect a similar pattern of changes from between now and the Derby on May 7, there are seventeen graded races for 3-year-olds including the Palm Beach Stakes on turf this weekend and two 7 furlong graded stakes in the Bay Shore and Swale. Those races are not exactly the kind of races in which a contender needs to run leading up to the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby on dirt. Regardless, the earnings still count so one never knows.

The purses for those 17 remaining graded races before the Derby total $8.8 million, so there is plenty of graded stakes earnings yet left to be disseminated. Depending on the conditions of each race, there are at least 85 opportunities in those 17 races to earn graded stakes money.

It is difficult to determine the graded stakes earnings cut-off for the 20 Derby positions. Last year, Make Music For Me needed $218,750 in graded earnings to qualify. But the year before, No Where To Hide needed on $55,500 to make into the 2009 Derby. In 2008 Denis of Cork qualified with the lowest total at $165,500 while Imawildandcrazyguy pulled into Churchill Downs with $104,000.

With Sweet Ducky and Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) winner Brethren currently tied in the twentieth spot on the grade stakes earning list at $120,000, it is not difficult to imagine or even predict it will take more than last year’s $218,000 to qualify for Kentucky Derby 137.

Although $8.8 million in 17 races seem like a good number of opportunities for a Derby hopeful, don’t think that makes those dollars and races any less precious. Realistically, each horse has two more stops on the trail before Kentucky in the next 60 days or so. Some connections may push for three starts, but that is just not practical - especially if a five-week Triple Crown is at all a part of their plan.

Choosing those two races are perhaps some of the most important decisions a trainer can make leading up to the Derby. Case in point this year is Brethren. Brethren won the traditional prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby, the Sam Davis Stakes (gr. 3) Feb. 12. He is the logical favorite for the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday unless Uncle Mo runs. Uncle Mo is entered, but trainer Todd Pletcher is looking for another race that weekend for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) winner and Champion Uncle Mo so as not to run him against Brethren. Uncle Mo is slated to start in the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park, also on Saturday, but if for some reason the Timely Writer does not fill with enough entries, Uncle Mo will be going into the Tampa Bay Derby.

With Brethren on the bubble the winner’s share of the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby is $210,000. That would give him $330,000 in graded stakes earnings and probably enough to qualify for the Derby. But the second-place check of $35,000 puts Brethren at only $155,000 and in all likelihood in need of another big performance leading up to the Derby. That race would likely be in the late grade 1 preps like the Florida, Arkansas and Santa Anita Derbies or in the Wood Memorial. Other avenues for Brethren might include some of the lesser late preps like the Illinois Derby (gr. 3) April 9 or the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. 2) April 23. But Brethren would be in a must win situation in those races that have $250,000 and $200,000 purses respectively in order to get into the Derby. Even second place in, say the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby would be $200,000 and third money of $100,000 may be enough to qualify.

So one can easily see the challenges ahead for those on top now, but also envision a set of circumstances that sees a Machen, currently ranked at 51 with $12,000, qualify for the Derby. Trained by Neil Howard, the son of Distorted Humor will have to improve vastly over his recent fourth in the grade 2 Risen Star in February. But imagine if he wins the $1 million Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) Mar. 26. With $612,000 in graded stakes earnings, he's Kentucky bound. Even with the second-place money of $200,000 and Machen is suddenly up from 51 to being at least the proverbial Kentucky Derby bubble of not enough to qualify.

There are so many decisions to be made by trainers with condition books and graded races to be run between now and the Kentucky Derby. Hence there will be races studied and evaluated by serious horse players, fans and trainers alike. Results will be recorded and horses will climb and fall the many Kentucky Derby lists published by turf writers and bloggers. But the list everybody will be watching is the graded stakes earnings of each Kentucky Derby hopeful. Because that's the one that counts.

Returning Stars Help Fill Zenyatta Void

Zenyatta, as she always does – present or not – stole the show again Monday night at the Eclipse Awards held at the Fontainebleau Miami Beach Hotel ballroom in Florida as she was named Horse of the Year, and Champion Older Female. Her ownership, training, management and daily care team was also recognized with a Special Eclipse Award for managing her historic 2010 campaign and making her so accessible to her fans.

It was her third attempt at Horse of the Year after being a finalist in both 2008 when losing to Curlin and last year when Rachel Alexandra took home the golden Eclipse Award. At age six, she is the oldest Horse of Year honoree since Cigar in 1996. Only Exterminator in 1922, Kelso in 1964 (both age seven) and John Henry in 1984 at age nine, have been older. Zenyatta is only the 11th female to be named North American Horse of the Year since the award was first given to Hanover in 1887.

Although there were cries from the audience to owner Jerry Moss to “bring her back,” Moss assured the crowd and racing that she was very comfortable in her new home at Lane’s End Farm in Kentucky. Moss later told TVG’s Christine Olivares that no decision has yet been made on who Zenyatta will be bred to this year, but a decision will be coming soon.

There will be a large gap left in racing with the departure of Zenyatta, but there was much encouraging news from the camps of other Eclipse Award winners.

Shane Ryan of Castleton Lyons, the owner of the owner of Champion Male Turf Horse Gio Ponti, said they are “looking forward to 2011 [with Gio Ponti] and maybe we can get that Breeders’ Cup victory eventually.” Gio Ponti finished second to Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic and again second to Goldikova this year in the Breeder’s Cup Turf Mile.

Trainer Todd Pletcher accepted the Eclipse Award for Goldikova and mentioned that she will soon return to training and a possible run at her fourth consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile. Only ten horses have won two Breeders’ Cup races.

Perhaps the best rivalry of 2009 came from the 3-year-old filly division headed by Eclipse Award winner Blind Luck. The other two divisional finalist, Evening Jewel and Havre de Grace, each finished second twice behind Blind Luck. Evening Jewel lost by a nose both times. Havre de Grace lost by a nose and a neck but came back to defeat Blind Luck in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes.

Facing older mares for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, Blind Luck was second and Havre de Grace third behind winner Unrivaled Bell.

But the good news is that all three, Blind Luck, Evening Jewel and Havre de Grace, will be back again in 2011 to resume their rivalries.

Even in the long term, there seems to be promise. Michael Repole, owner of Champion 2-Year-Old Male Uncle Mo directed some of his acceptance speech comments directly to racing fans saying, “If Uncle Mo lives up to my dreams, I promise you. he will live up to yours.” While Uncle Mo has the rugged trail to and possibly through the Triple Crown season ahead of him, here’s hoping Repole was hinting that early retirement of his promising star would not be in the plans if the success continues for Uncle Mo.

Of course the financial incentives once offered by the breeding industry to entice early retirement are certainly not at the level they were some five or ten years ago. The most expensive stallions to retire this year are Blame, Lookin at Lucky and Quality Road, all with $35,000 stud fees. It has not been that long since those caliber of horses stood in the $50,000 - $75,000 range and at times higher.

Last year Blame won $3.7 million on the track and will have to breed 108 mares this season to match that income. However, approaching that number will be no challenge, even in the current economic environment in the breeding industry.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver will have to breed just 85 mares at his 2011 stud fee of $20,000 to reach his 2010 income of $1.7 million while Lookin at Lucky will have to breed just 58 mares at $35,000 each to reach his more than $2 million in earnings last year.

For fillies and mares, the numbers are much more defining. Zenyatta made $1.2 million last year and more than $7.4 million in her three year racing career. Any significant earning potential as a broodmare for her is more than two years away in the summer yearling sales. Although it is doubtful owners Jerry and Ann Moss have any concern about her current earning power.

Last year Blind Luck made some $1.7 million on the track, so there is little financial incentive from the breeders to entice her off the race track and into retirement or for her current owners to switch careers.

Whether it is the lull in the breeding industry economics or a genuine commitment to fans that keeps more thoroughbred stars on the track, I’m not sure there is a clear cut answer – as naïve as that may seem. But for the time, I am grateful we have so many of last year’s Eclipse Award winners coming back 2012. With the departure of Zenyatta, we going to need all of them.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing

In a exclusive interview with The Brock Talk, Mr. Horse Racing discusses the highlights of 2010 and the prospects of the industry in 2011.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: What was the best about 2010?

Mr. Horse Racing: Zenyatta was by far the star of the year, if not the star of the decade here in North America. Watching her streak grow to 19 undefeated wins was a great thrill and brought recognition to the sport from such influential media as Oprah Winfrey’s O Magazine and 60 Minutes on CBS. Even in defeat, her Breeders’ Cup Classic loss to Blame is one of the greatest races of our generation.

I also think people underestimate the year Quality Road had. He began the year in a starting gate rehab program after his Jerry Springer/Maury Povich performance in which he tried to eat the Santa Anita starting gate and it’s crew before the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Quality Road returns to begin the year with three graded races and has the biggest image change since Tom Hanks left Bussom Buddies.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: What were the biggest disappointments of 2010?

Mr. Horse Racing: Other than the obvious being Zenyatta’s defeat in the aforementioned Breeders’ Cup Classic, there were four big disappointments in 2010. The other notable disappointment was Rachel Alexandra suffering defeats at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, Churchill Downs, Saratoga and thus retiring before the Breeders’ Cup. Number two: We have now gone two years without a Kentucky Derby champion winning a race after the Run For The Roses. Neither Super Saver nor Mine That Bird managed an appearance in the winner’s circle after winning the Derby. Number Three: Zenyatta losing her final race. Some would make this the biggest disappointment of the year, but at least she made it to the big stage with the streak and notched her place in horse racing history among those that brought horse racing to the general public. Difficult to say that her ultimate star power was a disappointment. And finally, number Four: There was no race between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. We had two chances this year. Thanks to Oaklawn Park president Charles Cella and his offer to write a big check if both appeared in the grade 1 Apple Blossom, there was a chance in April. The other missed opportunity came when Zenyatta’s connections decided not to ship to Saratoga for the grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes in August. A decision that cost her a slam dunk as Horse of the Year.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: Will we have a Triple Crown winner this year?

Mr. Horse Racing: Without hope and optimism, there is no horse racing. But I can say two things about the Triple Crown. We have a good group that will represent the class of 2011 including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo, Boys of Toscanova and To Honor and Serve. There are also some 20 others that are on watch lists throughout the industry. From what I’ve heard talking to Santa Claus and others, there were a lot of owners and trainers that had injury-free on the Christmas, Hanaka, and Festivus lists this year.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: We need another female jockey star in the sport. Any chances?

Mr. Horse Racing: First, let's recognize the progress women have made in recent years. Linda Rice won the training title at Saratoga in 2009 and was second to Todd Pletcher in 2010. Among the North America’s leading consignors at thoroughbred auctions are Murray Smith and Meg Levy. Women are becoming more prominent as owners as seen by Jenny Craig, Gretchen Jackson and Maggi Moss. Chantal Sutherland definitely has some star power as a jockey as does Inez Karlsson, a top ten rider at Arlington Park; and Rosemary B. Homeister, Jr., third in the jockey standings during the Churchill Downs winter meeting and a veteran making a courageous comeback after some personal challenges.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: Will thoroughbred racing see a sharp decline in interest after the departure of Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Lookin At Lucky, Blame, Quality Road and the likes?

Mr. Horse Racing: Simply put – No. Horse racing had some the best stars in recent memory carry it through one of the most difficult economic times in our nation’s history. Last year the Kentucky Derby had one of its biggest television ratings with Lookin at Lucky coming off a losing Spring campaign and Super Saver as a marginal favorite. Big crowds and large handles resulted in the New Jersey experiment at Monmouth Park and Churchill is now running on successful Friday night model still popular at Hollywood Park and many other tracks around the country. If the economy shows any hint of rebound, horse racing now has a base to benefit.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: What were the worst decisions in 2010 that will have an impact on 2011?

Mr. Horse Racing: The decision of the Churchill Downs stewards not to scratch Life at Ten from the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic may have cost horse racing thousands of marginal fans. Jockey John Velasquez said on national television that he was not comfortable with the way she was warming up – an important pre-race note most likely missed by casual and novice racing fans. I hate to think of the number of sports book players waiting for their pre-empted college football game on ESPN, with open online wagering accounts, who bet on the favorite as a “why not wager”, only to see her break last and not run a jump. Say goodbye to a great number of those proflic gamblers.

I also have to say that retiring 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird was a blunder. He may not have won the 2011 Santa Anita Handicap or Jockey Club Gold Cup, but he is a Kentucky Derby winning gelding that could have created much excitement with a marginal career. I would have given him 30 days vacation in Roswell to relax and hone his flying saucer dodging skills then sent him to one of the most prolific horsemen in the Southwest over the last 40 years, Keith Asmussen in Laredo, for the winter. If the folks at the Asmussen Training Center, known for buying and producing millionaires from California to France, see a sparkle in Mine That Bird, then off to Ron McAnally in California. McAnally has a long history with the Asmussen operation and of course trained one of the greatest geldings of our generation in John Henry. McAnally also trains in Southern California where the new track at Santa Anita is natural dirt and not the synthetic nemesis Mine That Bird so disliked. If McAnally decides that the Santa Anita Handicap is not in the plans, then consider a tour of the nation in popular grade 3 races such as the Razorback in Arkansas, the Lone Star Park Handicap in Texas, the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker in Iowa, the Longacres Mile in Washington, or the Monmouth Cup in New Jersey. Fans in these regional markets would clammer to see a Kentucky Derby winner if marketed properly and if Mine That Bird has a spark left, McAnally and the Asmussens would find it.

Super Saver Needs Sea Hero Playbook For Travers

It may not be as historically significant as the 24 consecutive major league loses by the 1889 Cleveland Spiders or the 0-26 losing streak by the National Football League’s Tampa Bay Bucaneers of 1976-1977, but it’s now becoming noticeable – and quite frankly – annoying. Maybe you haven’t even noticed it. But it’s beginning to wear on me a bit.

It has now been since Big Brown won the Monmouth Stakes on September 11, 2008 since a Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands winner has won a subsequent race. That’s right. It has been almost two years since a Kentucky Derby winner has walked into a winner's circle after the first Saturday.

When Mine That Bird lost in the Whitney Handicap (gr. 1) at Saratoga in early August, it was his seventh consecutive loss since winning the Kentucky Derby last year. Super Saver (photo left) is 0-for-2, after finishing eighth the Preakness (gr. 1); and fourth in last month’s Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) at Monmouth Park. Both races won by Lookin at Lucky.

Gato Del Sol lost 15 consecutive races from September 1983 through April of 1985 before ending his career with a win in the Caballero Handicap at Hollywood, but he had two allowance races and a stake at Del Mar between his Derby victory and his streak of losses.

Proud Clarion, the 1967 Derby winner, finished his career by losing all of his nine races in 1968. But like Gato Del Sol, Proud Clarion won races after the Derby and before his losing streak started.

Tomy Lee, the 1959 Derby winner, had a somewhat pathetic post Churchill Downs career. Trainer Frank Childs chose to return Tommy Lee to California to run in the Cinema Handicap at Hollywood Park instead of trying for the Triple Crown and skipped both the Preakness and Belmont. Tomy Lee finished sixth in the Cinema and was given six months off before coming back to win a 6 furlong allowance race. He finished his career with two loses at age four. Both Super Saver and Mine That Bird passed Tommy Lee in the post Derby career derby the second they stepped foot on the track for the Preakness.

Prior to Mine That Bird and Super Saver (photo right), the last time the Kentucky Derby winner did not win the Preakness nor the Belmont in two consecutive years was in 1992 and 1993 with Lil E. Tee and Sea Hero respectively.

Lil E. Tee finished fifth in the Preakness and was then sidelined for the rest of his 3-year-old campaign. He returned to race at Oaklawn Park in the Spring, but his only significant win came in the grade 2 Razorback and he was eventually retired later that year.

The connections behind Super Saver may be hoping for racing pattern similar to what Sea Hero showed after his Run for the Roses. After finishing off the board in the Preakness and Belmont, Sea Hero ran fourth in the Jim Dandy in preparation for his victory in the Travers at 6-1 odds. Super Saver was, of course, fourth in the Haskell Invitational before this year’s Shadwell Travers Stakes (gr. 1), and happens to be 6-1 in the morning line.

Super Saver won’t have Preakness and Haskell winner Lookin at Lucky to deal with in Saturday’s Travers, but will instead have plenty of competition and some adversity, breaking from the far outside post position eleven. Super Saver gets another shot at Haskell runner-up Trappe Shot and Preakness runner-up First Dude, who was also third in both the Belmont and Haskell. Morning line favorite A Little Warm gets the support nod based on his victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) at Saratoga the same weekend as the Haskell.

The position appears to be of little concern for trainer Todd Pletcher who said that there would be benefits to being so far outside. “It looks like your main speed is 1-2-3-4-5 and the other horses who have drawn the outside can kind of fall in there somewhere,” he said shortly after post positions were drawn. “Sometimes, the No. 11 might be a little further out than you’d ideally like, but I think at 1 ¼ miles it’s okay. You get a decent run to the first turn, so [jockey] Calvin [Borel] should have the option to kind of survey everything inside him.”

But Elliott Walden Jr., the vice president and racing manager for WinStar Farm, the owners of Super Saver, said “the second race off the layoff is typically his best. We hope he learned something off the Haskell and will have a good race. He's got to step up. We'll let him do the talking. He's set up to run very, very well.”

Of course in all fairness, it is hard to burden Super Saver after only two losses after the Derby with a losing steak label. Mine That Bird is the main culprit in this two-year drought. But like Mr. Walden, there are a lot of racing fans hoping that Super Saver steps up in the Travers – and ends this dreaded losing streak.

WinStar Turning Spot Lights Into Shining Lights

There’s an old Sesame Street song entitled “One of These Things is Not Like The Other” in which the cast member muppet singing the song, asks children to look at a group of three things and decipher which item is different from the other two in some way.

For some reason, that song rings to mind occasionally with announcements and accomplishments of WinStar Farm, the racing and breeding operation based in Versailes Kentucky. WinStar Farm is one of the more successful teams in racing and breeding this year. They won the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands with their home-bred son of the late Maria’s Mon, Super Saver. Five weeks after the Kentucky Derby, they won the third leg of the Triple Crown when their Drosselmeyer takes the Belmont Stakes. Drosselmeyer was not bred by WinStar, but is by one of the industry’s leading sires, Distorted Humor. Distorted Humor, by the way, stands at WinStar Farm.

Distorted Humor heads the roster of six stallions at Winstar, along with two-time Breeders’ Cup Champion and Horse of the Year Tiznow, 2004 Sprint Champion Speightstown, Sharp Humor and Spring at Last. And lest we forget the youngster in the group, Bluegrass Cat, who is currently the third leading first crop sire with more than $350,000 in progeny earnings.

If success in the stallion barn and on the track aren’t enough for WinStar Farm, they also sold a Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale session topper Aug. 10 for $800,000. A son of Zenyatta’s sire, Street Cry, the sales ticket on the colt was signed by one of the leading buyers in the world, John Ferguson, the bloodstock manager for Sheikh Mohammed al Maktoum.

Now back to the Sesame Street song. Which of these things is not like the other? Also among the WinStar items making news this year are Kim Magan of Orfino, Idaho winning the WinStar sponsored online contest for Drosselmeyer’s horse shoes; Gerald Zebell of Arlington Heights, Illinois winning the contest to name Super Saver’s half-brother. The winning name was Superfection. And more recently making the news, is the adoption and subsequent retirement of Super Saver’s full brother, Hedge Fund.

So why is perhaps the most successful Kentucky-based racing and breeding operation of the year, spending so much marketing effort on fan contests and retired race horses?

Elliott Walden Jr., the WinStar Farm Vice President and Racing Manager explained that they had several goals at the beginning of 2010. Among them was fan relations and interaction. “When it makes sense for the farm, we want the regular fan to have a chance to see and experience this business,” Walden explained to The Brock Talk.

The probability that a Kim Magan or a Gerald Zebell will bring a broodmare to WinStar Farm and a check for $100,000 to breed to Distorted Humor, is unlikely admits Walden. But that is not the purpose of those marketing dollars and hours of effort. “We have always felt that the more we can do for the business the better,” Walden explained. And that is exactly why the farm adopted and retired Hedge Fund among others.


“We feel very strongly that we have to take care of own,” Walden said. “That is why last year we adopted and retired Lord of the Game”, a brother to WinStar stallion Bluegrass Cat.


In the end, Hedge Fund’s adoption and retirement nor Ms. Magan’s Drosslelmeyer horse shoes will make many headlines, nor save the industry in some super hero fashion. Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver many not have been a Triple Crown winner either. But the impact the folks at Winstar Farms are having on racing is going far beyond the six-figure breeding contracts, Kentucky Derby wins or gavels dropping on millions of dollars in yearling sales.

The WinStar Farm impact is also reaching out to the fans. The WinStar impact is reaching out to retired race horses. The WinStar impact - in some cases - is probably also having a negative influence on the farm's short term bottom line.

Let's hope it catches on.

Click here to register for the WinStar Daily Pick 5 Contest with a grand prize of box seats at the 2010 Breeders' Cup.

Lucky Answers In Haskell Create More Questions

No doubt that IZOD Haskell Invitational winner Lookin at Lucky stepped to the head of the 3-year-old class with his impressive run in the $1,000,000 race Sunday at Monmouth Park. The question is: Where will he run next? The most obvious option would be to stay on the East Coast and make his final prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the $1 million Travers Stakes (gr. 1) Aug. 28. Another option is for trainer Bob Baffert to return to the West Coast with Lookin at Lucky and race against older horses in the $1 million Pacific Classic (gr. 1) at Del Mar the same day. There is even speculation on philly.com Daily News that the $1 million Pennsylvania Derby (gr. 2) at Philadelphia Park September 25 may be a possibility.

My money is on the Travers for a number of different reasons.

First, the Travers is run a natural dirt main track at Saratoga. With the ultimate goal for Lookin at Lucky now being the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs, also on a natural dirt surface, the Travers would provide the better preparation from strictly a surface standpoint. But with Lookin at Lucky having won 8 career races at 6 different tracks from ProRride to Poly-track to natural dirt from Southern California to Arkansas, Maryland and now New Jersey, it appears he can carry his racetrack with him anywhere.

With many competitors from the Haskell plus Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) winner A Little Warm expected to be going to the Travers, the fan pressure will be on owners Mike Pegram (photo), Karl Watson and Paul Weitman to send Lookin at Lucky to the Travers. The fans usually don’t have much influence in these decisions however. But prestige does and despite both races being grade 1s, the Travers has the history and the prestige.

The Travers also has the attention of the thoroughbred breeders in Kentucky. There is little doubt a Travers win has a bigger influence on a stallion’s post race value compared to the Pacific Classic. And a horse can run in million dollar races for years and never accumulate enough purse money to approach their stallion value. Especially with a horse like Lookin at Lucky who already has a classic victory in the Preakness and a 2-year-old championship on his resume as well as attractive bloodlines being by the successful stallion Smart Strike who stands for $75,000 per live foal Lane's End in Versailles, Kentucky.

Lookin at Lucky is now the leader of the 3-year-old division, but has by no means wrapped up the title as Champion 3-Year-Old. A win in what looks to be a light Pacific Classic would do little to enhance those chances if Super Saver were to win the Travers. Or if Super Saver lost the Travers then came back to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Lookin at Lucky would be hard pressed to even be considered without a Travers win. Don’t scoff too hard at Super Saver having a big day at Churchill Downs again without knowing what the chances of rain might be in Louisville on November 6.

One thing is for sure however. And that is the Haskell seemed to be Lookin at Lucky’s coming out party. Anybody that is going to catch him is going to have to show some of that same transformative improvement that can happen to 3-year-olds this time of year. Trappe Shot (photo), Super Saver and maybe A Little Warm seem to be likely candidates now. I’m afraid First Dude will not benefit from the 1-1/4 mile distance of the Travers and Classic. Ice Box should benefit from the distance, but will need to find that kick he had in Florida and Kentucky to have chance of taking advantage. The Monmouth Park race track was certainly not conducive to his late running style, so there’s a bit of an excuse there too.

But no matter the potential, excuse or misfortunes of those left in Lookin at Lucky’s wake in the Haskell, as least they know which direction to point their guns. Now let’s see if Baffert gives them a shot before the Breeders’ Cup.

Lookin at Four in the Haskell

The $1 million IZOD Haskell Invitational of 2010 has certainly met the challenge of attaining the standard set by the previous best versions of the 1-1/8 mile, grade 1, race. Won last year by Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra over eventual Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or Gelding Summer Bird and the site of one of epic battles of the 1980s when Alysheba tried valiantly to run down his Triple Crown nemisis Bet Twice in ’87 and failed, this year’s Haskell Invitational features nearly every top 3-year-old male in training.

The race features the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands in Super Saver and Ice Box respectively and the top two finishers in the Preakness in winner Lookin at Lucky and second-place finisher First Dude. Only the Belmont Stakes is lightly represented with the winner Drosselmeyer on the sideline due to a minor injury and runner-up Fly Down running the previous day at Saratoga in the grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes.

Because of the success of the Elite Summer Season at Monmouth Park and preponderance of some of the nation’s top stables running at the New Jersey track, this Haskell Invitational also brings the most legitimate winner of the local prep race (the Longbranch Stakes on in Trappe Shot, installed as the morning line co-second choice at 3-1.

Only horse racing can produce the irony of one of the best versions of the Haskell Invitational during a year when GAHP (Generally Accepted Handicapping Principals – I was an accounting major in college) have defined this crop of sophomores as mediocre at best.

And with that being said – let’s pick a winner. My comments in post position order.

1. Lookin at Lucky (Martin Garcia) – The morning line favorite at 5-2 odds is, in my opinion, the most logical winner. Whether one can bet on him at 5-2 is the question. He has a knack for trouble when he gets too far behind and young jockey Martin Garcia is likely to receive instructions from trainer Bob Baffert to stay engaged with the leaders. Baffert, who has won the Haskell three times with Point Given (2001), War Emblem (2002) and Roman Ruler in 2005, knows that closers have a difficult time getting to the winner’s circle in the Haskell. His 1-5 favorite Point Given won while overcoming the biggest deficit at the half-mile pole in the last ten runnings of the Haskell at 4 lengths. Point Given won by a half-length over 13-1 shot Touch Tone and 7-1 choice Burning Roma. In other words: stay close.

2. Afleet Again (Joe Bravo) – Not even the best 3-year-old colt named “Afleet” to have run at Monmouth Park this year having lost to Afleet Express in the grade 3 Pegasus June 19. Breaking from the 2 post will help him improve off of his last two wide trips at Monmouth Park as will local leading jockey Joe Bravo. But he’ll need a bigger boost than that to have an impact on this field.

3. Ice Box (Jose Lezcano) – The winner of the Florida Derby, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and the favorite in the Belmont Stakes. Trouble in Kentucky and a bad day in New York kept this Nick Zito trainee from a Triple Crown credential. Needs a fast pace to run down and still belongs to the mysterious, riddle-wrapped enigma club of this class. Recent Haskell history is also against him from a pace standpoint. See comments on Point Given.

4. First Dude (Ramon Dominguez) – If speed is what you need to win the Haskell Invitational than nobody comes more prepared than 6-1 morning line choice First Dude. If the Preakness and Belmont are 1-1/8 miles, you may be looking at the winner of both races. But the Preakness is a sixteenth of a mile and the Belmont three furlongs longer. The Haskell is not. It is exactly 1-1/8 miles and it may be exactly the distance for perennial second and third fiddle First Dude.

5. Our Dark Knight (Elvis Trujillo) – The Rabbit. Owned by Robert V. LaPuenta and trained by Nick Zito, Our Dark Knight has apparently been entered into the Haskell to insure an honest pace for the connection’s stable star Ice Box. Look for this allowance race winner to shoot to the lead in an effort to disrupt any possibility of a slow pace by First Dude – then fade into the dark night that is the Haskell also rans.

6. Super Saver (Calvin Borel) – Ice Box has nothing on this guy in the mysterious enigma department. The Kentucky Derby winner flopped in the Preakness running eighth and had previous trouble living up to his juvenile expectations before the run for the roses. His Kentucky Derby was a dream trip, which jockey Calvin Borel is more than capable of delivering Sunday. It was also on a sloppy track. There is also a chance of a sloppy track Sunday at Momouth Park. Super Saver has every ability to capitalize on both. I’ll pass at 3-1 morning line odds but will definitely have him in my exotics.

7. Uptowncharlybrown (Rajiv Maragh) – The horse that runs for the memory of late trainer Alan Seewald had one of those unexplainable mishaps in the Belmont Stakes
while running fifth, just three lengths off of winner Drosselmeyer. During the running of the race, the saddle pad carrying the additional weight necessary to give jockey Rajiv Maragh the needed 126 pounds of assigned weight, slipped completely out from under the securing girth straps and fell to the track. One can only assume that, despite carrying some ten pounds or so less weight to the finish line, the balance and effectiveness of Maragh was compromised. Uptowncharlybrown and Maragh will have to be closer to lead in the Haskell than they usually like so the pace circumstances may be too big of an obstacle to overcome for the win. But don’t leave him out of your exactas.

8. Trappe Shot (Alan Garcia) – If you are a Beyer Speed Figure disciple then this Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is an attention getter. In his last two starts (in the ungraded Longbranch Stakes at Monmouth and an allowance race at Belmont Park) he has registered 105 Beyer numbers in both races. The next best Beyer in the Haskell field is Super Saver and his 104 in the Derby and Lookin at Lucky with a 102 in the Preakness. Neither them nor anybody else in the Haskell has two triple digit Beyer numbers on their resume. He also has the speed to win the Haskell, never laying more than 1-1/2 lengths of the leader in any of his last four consecutive victories. It’s a big jump in class from the Longbranch to the Haskell and no horse has ever accomplished the double. So despite his Beyer credentials, I’m leaving him to my exotics.

Selections: 1-4-3

Haskell Has Skins As Eclipse Award Barometer

With a stellar and competitive field assembling on the Jersey shore for the $1 million IZOD Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) Sunday, perhaps the best bet of the race will be that the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or Gelding of 2010 will come out of Monmouth Park’s marquee event.

In a Triple Crown that saw no horse win more than one race and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) winner Drosselmeyer on the sidelines through August, there is no clear cut favorite for 3-year-old championship title.

The $1 million Haskell at 1-1/8 miles is expected to feature Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands winner Super Saver (top photo), Preakness (gr. 1) winner Lookin at Lucky, Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box and First Dude, second in the Preakness. So other than Drosselmeyer and Belmont second-place finisher Fly Down, who is headed for the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) Saturday at Saratoga, the current 3-year-old crop is well represented in the Haskell.

There are also a slew of other Haskell contenders that could still be champion honorees with potential wins left this year in the Travers Stakes (gr. 1) later in August at Saratoga and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs November 5. A late season hot streak by Uptowncharlybown or Trappe Shot would give them credentials to at least enter the discussion.

History also makes a pretty good case for the Haskell producing a divisional champion. In the previous 42 runnings of the race, 15 Haskell starters have gone to become the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or Gelding, two have been named Champion 3-Year-Old Filly; and five of those 17 have been named Horse of the Year at year’s end.

The 2009 Haskell would go on to produce the most decorated group as winner Rachel Alexandra became the Champion 3-Year-Old Filly and Horse of the Year while Summer Bird, second to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell, was named the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt.

Serena’s Song in 1995, is the only other filly to win the Haskell Invitational and she was also given the Eclipse Award that year as the Champion 3-Year-Old Filly.

Champion production has been going one for nearly 40 years in Haskell going back to 1974 when Kentucky Derby winner Little Current went on to become Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or gelding after finishing second to Holding Pattern in the Haskell. A year later, Wajima won the Haskell and the championship.

In 1983, Slew O’Gold won the Champion 3-Year-Old male title after finishing sixth in the Haskell behind Preakness winner Deputed Testamony. Two years later Spend A Buck became the first future Horse of the Year to start in the Haskell, finishing second to Skip Trial at Monmouth Park.

In 1994 Holy Bull won the Horse of the Year and divisional honors after winning the Haskell but it was the decade of the oughts when Eclipse Award winners began coming off the Haskell assembly line. From 2001 through last year, seven Haskell starters have been named divisional champions including and Point Given (2001) (photo right), Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra all also received the gold trophy for Horse of the Year.

Big Brown (2008), Funny Cide (2003) and War Emblem (2002), all Kentucky Derby winners, were the other divisional champions from the decade along with Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra. Big Brown and War Emblem were also Haskell winners while Funny Cide was third behind the speedy Peace Rule at Monmouth Park.

So this year’s Haskell Invitational, like most, is more than just a rematch of some Triple Crown contenders, locals and late bloomers. It is perhaps a pre-cursor to the road to championship.

Trappe Set For Haskell And Other Good News

It was a pretty good weekend for racing fans. Gio Ponti (photo, right), the 2009 Champion Turf Horse, put a halt to his losing streak by winning the grade 1 Man o’War Stakes at Belmont Park and 3-year-old starlet Blind Luck took the Delaware Oaks (gr. 2) over a sloppy track.

Looking ahead, we have Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) winner Sidney’s Candy leading the contenders into Saturday’s Swaps Stakes (gr. 2) at Hollywood Park and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said Blind Luck is headed to Saratoga for the Alabama (gr. 1). The August 21 Alabama may be one of the more anticipated races during the Spa meeing with other major league 3-year-old fillies such as Mother Goose (gr. 1) winner Devil May Care and Prioress Stakes (gr. 1) winner Franny Freud also headed to Saratoga.

Trainer Bob Baffert saw his Preakness winner Luckin at Lucky work Saturday at Santa Anita covering six furlongs in 1:12.60. As reported in Daily Racing Form, Lookin at Lucky suffered a minor setback following the Preakness with a fever, but Baffert said they are back on track for the $1 million Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) August 1 at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands winner Super Saver is also training for the Haskell in Todd Pletcher’s barn as well as sentimental favorite Uptowncharlybrown and Preakness runner-up First Dude.

First Dude will also bring sentimental support to the Haskell as owner Jack Dizney as pledged 1% of his graded stakes earnings to the Grayson-Jockey Club Research Foundation, the industry’s leading veterinary research organization.

However, the sophomore class of 2009 took a hit this weekend when trainer Bill Mott said Belmont winner Drosselmeyer will take a break from training for at least 60 days due to a foot concern. It is conceivable Drosselmeyer could return in time for the Breeders’ Cup, but it will likely be his first start after the long vacation presenting a large hurdle in front of an already daunting task. If the Breeders’ Cup Classic features Zenyatta, Quality Road, Rachel Alexandra and a late blooming 3-year-old star or two, it becomes a worse option and a doubtful path for Drosselmeyer and his connections.


One of those potential late blooming 3-year-old made an appearance this weekend at Monmouth Park. Trappe Shot (photo left) looked very impressive winning the $175,000 Long Branch Stakes, the local preparation for the Haskell. In his first start around two turns, Trappe Shot stopped the clock in 1:43.48 for the 1 1/16 miles. It was also good enough to earn him his second consecutive 105 Beyer Speed Figure having also achieved that number in a June 5 allowance victory at Belmont Park.

Super Saver (Kentucky Derby, 104) and Lookin at Lucky (Preakness, 102) have only achieved triple-digit Beyer numbers once to help put Trappe Shot’s two recent races into perspective. In any event, Trappe Shot may be one of the most exciting new challengers to Triple Crown winners in the Haskell since Lost Code took on Derby and Preakness winner Alysheba and Belmont winner Bet Twice in 1987.

But perhaps some of the best news we heard this weekend was regarding the recovery of Global Hunter. Just a few strides after winning the American Handicap (gr. 2T) at Hollywood Park July 4, Global Hunter dislocated his right front fetlock, a life-threatening injury for a thoroughbred.

However, he was rushed to Alamo Pintado Medical Center in Los Olivos, Calif where he underwent four hours of surgery the following day according to Bloodhorse.com. Trainer A.C. Avila told Bloodhorse that a plate and 16 screws were inserted to stabilize and repair the joint and Global Hunter is currently “doing fantastic.”
Best news of all.

Triple Crown Runners Beginning to Roll Again

It is now more than two weeks since the conclusion of the Triple Crown and more than seven weeks since we have seen many of the horses that started only in the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands. Four of the contenders from the Derby-Preakness-Belmont trail returned to the races recently, while others are beginning more serious preparations for the next start.

This may not be the flashiest group of 3-year-olds, but they do have depth in their ranks as evidenced Saturday in the $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup won by Paddy O'Prado. The Dale Romans trainee was a troubled third in the Derby and sixth in the Preakness and was perhaps returning to his preferred turf racing surface in the Colonial, but his three-length win in the 1-3/16-mile race was a notable none-the-less.

Paddy O'Prado may be making his next start in the Virginia Derby July 17.

Noble's Promise, was recently shipped to Great Britian for the prestigious Royal Ascot meeting and made a good show as the lone American in the St. James Palace Stakes (Eng-1). He broke sharply in the July 15 St. James, set the pace throughout the grassy one mile race but was passed in the final strides by eventual winner Canford Cliffs, a multiple grade 1 winner in Europe. Noble's Promise hung on to finish fifth, beaten just three lengths.

Also fifth in the Kentucky Derby, Noble's Promise suffered slight dehydration that day and was given the extra time to recover by trainer Ken McPeek before traveling to Great Britian for the St. James Palace.

It was two solid races by two also rans in a much maligned group of Triple Crown contenders. Paddy O'Prado impressively won against marginal competition. Noble's Promise ran a very respectable race half way around the world, in a totally unfamiliar environment of Royal Ascot, against the European elites. Neither Paddy O'Prado nor Noble's Promise turned many heads or stopped any presses. But they both ran the kind of races that we may come to expect from this group - solid.

Granted, Jackson Bend (12th in the Derby and 3rd in the Preakness) and Schoolyard Dreams (9th in the Preakness) fell far below the solid standard finishing fifth and sixth in the six-horse Pegasus Stakes (gr. 3) Sunday at Monmouth Park, but the class may be firing some of their bigger guns again later this summer.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver (photo top) worked Sunday morning at Belmont Park in preparation for his next scheduled race, the $1 million Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) to be run Aug. 1 at Monmouth Park. The work was a leisurely four furlongs (1/2 mile) in 50.66, just slower than a similar move earlier in the morning by stablemate and Suburban Handicap (gr. 1) winner Quality Road, who stopped the clock in 50.26 over the same distance.

After the work, trainer Todd Pletcher told NY Daily News sports writer Jerry Bossert "It was a maintenance half for both. We're still a ways away from their next races."

Drosselmeyer, the winner of the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1), has yet to go through any serious work since taking the Test of Champions more than two weeks ago. Trainer Bill Mott said following the Belmont that the Travers Stakes will be the targeted next start for Drosselmeyer.

Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky recorded his third workout since winning in Baltimore. He recently breezed four furlongs over the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita in :47.40. Baffert said they continue to point Lookin at Lucky toward the Haskell or the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) July 31 at Saratoga.

Sidney's Candy, The winner of the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) returned to Southern California after his disappointing 17th finish the Kentucky Derby. He was given a brief vacation and has two recent works in preparation for the July 17 Swaps Stakes (gr. 2) at Hollywood Park including a recent six furlong bullet work (fastest work at that distance that morning) 1:11.60 with jockey Joe Talamo aboard.

Kentucky Derby runner-up and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) favorite Ice Box had a bad day in the third leg of the Triple Crown. He displaced his palate and the hot and humid conditions adversely effected him as well. Trainer Nick Zito has said the Travers Stakes (gr. 1) on Aug. 27 at Saratoga is the next planned start for Ice Box.

Horses such as American Lion (11th in the Kentucky Derby), First Dude (2nd, Preakness; 3rd, Belmont), Game on Dude (4th, Belmont) Make Music For Me (4th, Derby; 10th Belmont) and others may be coming back to the races in the coming weeks and months as well.

I doubt any of them are going to be scaring Quality Road, Blame or Rail Bird anytime soon either. But they seem well suited to give us plenty of solid and enjoyable races.

Be Careful What You Wish For? Not So Much Perhaps.

Nearly half way through 2010, it is an interesting time to evaluate how the year is going for thoroughbred racing and the fans. The Triple Crown is now complete, Zenyatta (photo, right) and Rachel Alexandra have both raced multiple times as has 2009 stars Quality Road, Gio Ponti, Blink Luck, Lookin at Lucky, Goldikova among others.

While the stars and the sport have had some setbacks, it appears we are doing pretty well getting what we might have wished.

The two obvious drawbacks so far in 2010, are that we have not seen the Rachel Alexandra versus Zenyatta dream race we all have been wishing for. Nor did this crop of 3-year-olds provide much of a Triple Crown. I'm sure Rachel Alexandra's two losses to start the year had a damper on a wish list or two, but that will be addressed later.

With the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands, the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes and all the races leading up to the Triple Crown in the Spring, the 3-year-olds are the natural stars each year. Things were looking up for the group in late April when Eskendereya was coming into the Derby as the heavy favorite with eye-catching victories in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in Florida and Wood Memorial in New York. Meanwhile, 2009 Champion 2-Year-Old Looking at Lucky had lost some of his luster with a series of hard-luck performances, one of which resulted in a third place finish in the Santa Anita Derby just prior to going to Kentucky.

Eskendereya suffered a career ending injury before the Derby and Looking at Lucky again endured traffic problems in the Derby and finished sixth. Derby winner Super Saver came back to run a dull eighth in the Preakness behind a rebounding victory by Lookin at Lucky, but neither went on to the Belmont Stakes. Belmont favorite Ice Box threw a clunker in New York while the somewhat miscellaneous Drosselmeyer took the third leg of the Triple Crown.

Regarding Zenyatta, it is important to remember that at the end of last year, the Champion Older Female and Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. 1) winner was in the middle of a retirement tour. What we have instead from the undefeated mare is three more grade 1 wins in 2010 and a significant historical event in racing.

Her third win the Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park last week, gave her 17 straight wins and moved Zenyatta past Citation, Cigar, and Mister Frisky for the most consecutive wins in modern times in races not restricted to state-breds.

If you had asked most in January if they would have rather have a Triple Crown winner or an undefeated Zenyatta with the record in hand in mid-June, I'm sure many would take Zenyatta and her last three races. There is an opportunity for a Triple Crown winner every year, however difficult the challenge may be. But a Zenyatta comes along once in a generation.

Rachel Alexandra, on the other hand, has not quite had the same year in terms of meeting expectations. The 2009 Horse of the Year lost her first two starts in 2010 at Fair Grounds in New Orleans and then again at Churchill Downs. Although she bounced back to win the Fleur de Lis (gr. 2) Saturday while showing signs of her old self, the two defeats against seemingly sub-par competition had fans speculating about her retirement and wishing she was the Rachel Alexandra of 2009.

TVG Network's The Finish Line however, produced an interesting graphic that shows a different take on her first few races of this year. When comparing her Beyer Speed Figures from 2010 to her first starts last year, they are almost identical. And a case can be made that her competition in the New Orleans Ladies and La Troienne (gr. 2) was much stiffer than what she faced last year in the first six months. And Rachel Alexandra was carrying three to four pounds more in her 2010 starts comparatively speaking.



So if you were wishing that Rachel Alexandra would have a similar year this year compared to last, you may be getting what you wished. In fact, the argument can be made that she may be on track for perhaps an even better year in 2010. The list of great race mares that stumbled at some point in their career only to go on to further greatness is a long one indeed.

Paseana finished second in her first two starts of 1993. Six graded wins would follow during her career. Heavenly Prize was second in the '94 Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. 1) and the '95 ungraded Oaklawn Park Breeders' Cup Handicap before rattling off four consecutive grade 1 wins. There are plenty of more dramatic losing streaks in the past performances of other great race mares - a sorority in which Rachel Alexandra already belongs.

Gio Ponti, the Champion Male Turf Horse of 2009, has been a bit of a disappointed this year, but he may be suffering effects of an aggressive effort to get him to and return from the taxing Dubai World Cup (gr. 1) in March. Gio Ponti began the year with a very disappointing second in the ungraded Tampa Bay Stakes then traveled halfway around the world to run in the $10 million Dubai World Cup in which he ran a credible fourth over an unfamiliar Tapeta racing surface.

The strain the Dubai journey can put on a North American thoroughbred has been well documented, so his second in the grade 1 Manhattan at Belmont Park June 5 can easily be forgiven. Two seconds and a fourth do little to convince that Gio Ponti has no chance returning to some resemblance of his 2009 form.

Champion 2-Year-Old Filly She Be Wild was injured just before the Kentucky Oaks, but her nemesis, Blind Luck, continued to fly the banner for the strong class of fillies by winning the Oaks instead.

Champion 3-Year-old Male Summer Bird, Champion Sprinter Kodiak Kowboy and Champion Female Sprinter Indian Blessing are also in retirement. But the majority of last year’s class of champions and stars have returned and are still running six months into 2010.

Certainly Quality Road, Mine That Bird, Musket Man and Rachel Alexandra are carrying the torch of a sophomore class much criticized throughout last year. Quality Road just won the Metropolitan Mile (gr. 1) after a record-breaking performance the Donn Handicap (gr. I) in February at Gulfstream Park – a race in which he broke his own 1-1/8 mile track record that he set in the 2009 Florida Derby (gr. I).
While Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird has yet to start this year, he looks to be training well after being moved to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. After several impressive works at Churchill Downs, Lukas has modified his ambitions above an allowance race return for Mine That Bird and now says he is Whitney Handicap (gr. 1) bound in early August at Saratoga.

Despite our wishes and hopes as the year began, I'm not sure we could have expected much more out of the class of 2009 to return and impact racing more than they have this year. And, though the 2010 3-year-old male crop appears to be marginal at best, they did deliver some the best television ratings for horse racing in recent memory for the Kentucky Derby and solid numbers in the Preakness as well. They are a slow group, but they seem to have some charisma and their mediocrity appears to have produced at least a somewhat popular level of competition. Remember, the year is not even 50% complete. That leaves more than six months for a star to appear ala late 3-year-old bloomers and Breeders' Cup Classic winners Proud Truth, Concern or Tiznow.

And if not - I'd say we're still doing pretty good with our wish list.

Neither Paradise Nor Bust, Horse Racing Presses On

Thoroughbred racing in North America is a vast industry that spans all three countries, including every state in the United States whether the home of tracks, breeders, owners and horsemen, management, manufacturing, service, agriculture or fans and gamblers. So whether you're elated by the Medaglia d' Oro filly that sold for a Maryland record $650,000 last week or prepared to take arms against the closing of Saratoga, be aware that all is not lost nor are we paradise bound.

The Triple Crown Bad News
The 2010 Triple Crown has never had much star quality momentum since the injury and departure of Fountain of Youth (gr. 2) and Wood Memorial (gr. 1) winner Eskendereya (photo right). Even before that, Looking at Lucky, who was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby throughout most of the winter, never got untracked barely winning a troubled Rebel Stakes (gr. 3), and unlucky losses in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver provided plenty of star potential coming from the barn of Todd Pletcher and having the services of public favorite Calvin Borel, but that team flattened out in the Preakness and will now skip the Belmont.

To make matters worse for racing fans, Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky will also skip the Belmont and instead be pointed toward the grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in New Jersey on August 1. So we are left with a Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) without a Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner for the first time since 2006.

The Triple Crown Good News
The NBC telecast of the Kentucky Derby was the highest in 18 years and eclipsed the 2009 Derby telecast that was the highest in 20 years. The 10.3 overnight rating and 23 share mean that nearly one in four television sets turned on Saturday afternoon were tuned into the Kentucky Derby. In terms of comparison to other major league sports on tv, the Derby ratings were higher than the final game of the 2009 World Series, the 2009 NBA Championship final game and the Stanley Cup finals in the NHL.

While the television ratings for the Preakness fell nearly 20% from a year ago, that Preakness was bolstered by the presence of the filly Rachel Alexandra and was among the highest rated Preakness telecasts in two decades. Even with the drop in comparison to last year, the Preakness ratings were still higher than the 2008 telecast and NBC reported that the combined ratings for the two telecasts results in the highest numbers of any consecutive horse telecasts since 1989.

More Good News To Triple Crown Bad News
While the 3-year-old crop of 2010 has yet to develop a horse with much star power, the older horse division is perhaps as loaded with stars as any year in decades.

Zenyatta continues to run into the racing history books and living rooms of America with every race as she continues to add to her now undefeated record in 16 career starts. While 2009 Horse of Year Rachel Alexandra has stumbled a bit in two close losses this year, there is no doubt she will draw attention and crowds when she makes here next start. Should Rachel Alexandra develop any resemblance of her 2009 form and eventually meet Zenyatta, the race will be a significant historical event in racing.

Just below the two superstars looms the popular Quality Road, winner of the 2009 Florida Derby (gr. 1) and undefeated in two starts this year; Summer Bird, the first horse in 20 years to win Belmont, Travers (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1); and Rail Trip on the West coast, who looked impressive while winning the Mervyn LeRoy (gr. 2)in preparation for his defense of the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. 1) title.

Closings on the Coasts?
For at least the last two years, Hollywood Park near Los Angeles has ended a race meet with little or no assurance that it would not be the last. In July 2005, Churchill Downs sold the track to the Bay Meadows Land Company for $260 million in cash. Under the terms of the deal, the company was to continue thoroughbred racing at Hollywood Park for at least three years and longer if favorable gaming legislation was passed in California. Five years later, there are no slots at California race tracks, Hollywood Park Race Track is still running and the Hollywood Park Tomorrow retail, commercial and residential development is still just a plan.

Across town at Santa Anita, owner Magna Entertainment appears to have survived a bankruptcy in their Roman racetrack empire that has spanned to Texas, Maryland, Michigan and various points in between. Now parent company Magna International Development has told the Oak Tree Racing Association, which has leased Santa Anita since 1969 for their non-profit Fall meeting, that they are reneging on a previous agreement and want to void the lease. But California neighbors Hollywood Park and Del Mar near San Diego quickly told Oak Tree officials they are welcome to run the meeting at their tracks. MID blinked and is expected to resume negotiations with Oak Tree Officials.

MID chief executive officer Dennis Mills has a standing offer to play poker at the Sheridan house any time. He wouldn’t last an hour at the same table as my wife.

On the East coast, New York Racing Association president and CEO Charlie Hayward said Monday that cash problems must be resolved with the state or they will not have the funds to continue the Belmont Park meeting past the Belmont Stakes nor open Saratoga. Due to a $17 million shortfall from the New York Off-Track Betting Corp., NYRA, which operates Belmont Park, Saratoga and Aqueduct race tracks, has hit a cash crisis with devastating potential.

Although New York governor David Paterson and various state legislators have pledged not to allow racing to halt in New York, those same politicians have been working nine years to approve a slot operator and allow Video Lottery Terminals to be installed at Aqueduct. Slot revenues are expected to be a large benefit to the NYRA and state bottom line just as it has in other racing jurisdictions where slots have been allowed at tracks.

East Coast Good News
Saturday, Monmouth Park will open perhaps the most anticipated racing season in their 64-year history, offering $1 million per day in purses and attracting some of the top stables from New York, California and Kentucky. The 50-day summer meet is part of a plan that has sliced live thoroughbred racing days in New Jersey to 71 total and eliminating the thoroughbred season at the Meadowlands.

The season will feature racing predominantly on a Friday through Sunday basis in an effort to boost attendance and handle at the track to subsidize the large purses. Management is also counting on full fields and 11 and 12-race cards that are likely to become more attractive to the thoroughbred players across the country.

The racing industry has for years clamored for the "less racing/larger fields" strategy to be implemented in racing jurisdictions throughout the country. But the risk of potential lost revenue due to lost racing dates has been too large for managements and states before the Monmouth experiment begins this week.

Bad Economy Blasts Breeders Too
According to Bloodhorse.com, fees for advertised stallion may have fallen as much as 25% in 2009 and the 2010 season may be even worse for stallion owners and breeders. Gross sales at public auctions in North America fell from $972 million in 2008 to $659 million a year later, a decrease of some 32%. Lost revenues at sales directly and adversely affect studs fees, in particular the summer yearling market.

But the sales markets are showing signs of improvement in the early months of 2010 which will have a positive impact on stallion fees should the trend continue.

One of the leading early economic indicators for public auctions are the success of two-year-old in training sales held by public auction houses Barretts, Fasig-Tipton, Keeneland, and the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. While gross sales at these auctions have decreased at many of the sales, the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training Monday in Maryland saw horses sold and gross revenue increase 7.9% and 23%, respectively, from a year ago.

One segment of the industry that has done well throughout the 2-year-old season are pin-hookers. (those that purchase yearlings at summer auctions with the express intent of reselling them in 2-year-old-in-training sales the following spring.) The rate of return on investment for most pin-hookers this year has more than doubled into the 70% range according to bloodhorse.com, giving plenty of hope to the yearling market later this summer.

Good yearling sales means improved stud fees and hopefully the recovery of yet another thoroughbred racing segment from the depths of this latest recession.

Preakness Stakes, Thoughts, Comments and Questions

Any questions as to where the racing gremlins may have moved when they vacated the Baffert barn? I don't know if they moved in the family and furniture, but they were sure aboard the D. Wayne Lukas trainees for the first 110 yards of the Preakness. Dublin, starting from the outside 12 post in the Preakness, broke so far to the right that jockey Garrett Gomez spent the first 50 yards of the race keeping Dublin, first out of the Pimlico gift shop and second, from running over the track outrider stationed on the outside of the track. Northern Giant stumbled at the start and also broke to the right from the four hole and quickly took a hard bump from Yuwanna Twist to his outside. By the time jockey Terry Thompson had Northern Giant back on stride, Pleasant Prince came in front of him from the two-hole and he was quickly bumped again by Yuwanna Twist and shuffled back before the field had traveld a 1/16th of a mile out of the gate... The longest drought in Triple Crown history now continues at 32 years - seven years longer than the previous record of 25 years between Triple Crown winners Citation (1948) and Secretariat (1973)... With trainers Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher saying neither Lookin at Lucky nor Super Saver are headed for the Belmont, it will be the first time since 2006 the Belmont Stakes will not feature a Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner, the year Barbaro won the Derby and Bernardini won the Preakness. Jazil (right) won the 2006 Belmont after finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby and skipping the Preakness... Make Music for Me was fourth in the Derby this year and skipped the Preakness if you want an insignificant fun fact... My thoughts at the top of the Preakness stretch: "Oh darn Super Saver is done. Wow it looks like Lookin at Lucky might win it! What the hell is First Dude still doing there?"... Don't even ask me who I like in the Belmont Stakes for a while.

Zenyatta In Dodger Blue
A prominent billboard advertising the Los Angeles Dodgers located near Hollywood Park features the undefeated mare Zenyatta. The billboard is part of an advertising campaign of the major league team featuring several famous Los Angelenos and is located on the corner of Hawthorne Blvd. and 106th street... Trainer John Shirreffs was overheard on TVG this weekend to say that Zenyatta is still being pointed toward the grade 1 Vanity Stakes at Hollywood Park. The 1-1/8 Vanity will feature a $250,000 purse for fillies and mares Sunday, June 13.

"Doc" Allred Resigns At Los Alamitos
Dr. Edward Allred, a mainstay in the Quarter Horse racing industry and widely considered to be instrumental in the saving Los Alamitos in the early 1990s, has resigned as the track's President and Chairman of the Board. Allred was quoted in Bloodhorse.com as saying "This decision is not based on health considerations, as I am doing well,” Allred said. “I will continue to have a very active role on the board of directors. It is on the execution of the day-to-day details and matters that I will not be involved." A statement his succession in power seems to vindicate. Longtime associate Cathy Monji has been appointed by Allred to be the new track President and serve on the board of directors while Rick English will take over as Board Chairman.

Allred still breeds and raises top-notch Quarter Horses at his Rolling A Ranch in Atascadero, California. Allred has won AQHA’s Champion Breeder title nine times and the Champion Owner award six times. In the 1990s, he led all owners in number of victories eight times, and has topped all breeders in wins from 1992 through 2004. In 2004, horses bred by Allred won 111 races and 14 stakes races while earning $1,575,685.