The Ins And Outs Of The Kentucky Derby

Getting an early start on any project can sometimes be the key definition between success and failure. “The early bird gets the worm” as the old saying goes. Trying to apply that benefit to betting on the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands – or horse betting on any other race for that matter – can sometimes add to confusion of an already challenging task. Because in horse racing, significant changes can happen in an instant while others seem to just come to the front under the circumstances and pressures of owning, training or riding a thoroughbred bound for the Kentucky Derby.

The conditions of the Kentucky Derby dictate that should more than the maximum 20 horses enter, graded stakes earnings will be used to determine those 20 horses eligible to run. Every year since 2004, the Kentucky Derby has overfilled at the entry box.

Last Saturday morning the cut-off for eligibility to enter the Derby belonged to 20th ranked Santiva and his $242,397. Trainer Aidan O’Brien had also confirmed from Europe that UAE Derby (gr. UAE2) runner-up Master of Hounds (photo) would be entered into the Kentucky Derby. That late decision pushed pushed Watch Me Go out of the Derby with his $235,500 in graded earnings.

There were two graded races for 3-year-olds run last weekend that had the potential to impact the graded earnings list – the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. 3) at Keeneland and the grade 2 Jerome at Aqueduct. Despite the fact that both races had their respective grades, neither seems ideal for a last start before the Kentucky Derby. Both races were just a short two weeks away from the Derby. Horse of this calibre are accustomed to running more on a three or four-week cycle. Like the Blue Grass Stakes, also a Keeneland, the Lexington was run on the artificial Polytrack while the Derby is on natural dirt. And the Jerome was a one turn mile.

Champion trainer Steve Asmussen had horses in each race, but only Silver Medallion in the Lexington was believed to be headed to Kentucky. He also had Astrology in the Jerome, but had indicated to Churchill Downs officials that he was not likely to run in the Derby (though Astrology already had enough graded earnings to be ranked a comfortable 17th in graded earnings with his $281,893).

Silver Medallion, on the other hand, needed some help. His $184,397 was far enough below Santiva’s earnings, that Silver Medallion needed either the $120,000 winner’s check or the $40,000 second-place earnings to garner a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Silver Medallion ran fourth in the Blue Grass behind winner Derby Kitten and the $10,000 check did little ti help qualify for the Derby. Astrology, however ran a good second in the Jerome, spawning a case of Derby fever that co-owner George Bolton had to deal with. Perhaps it was just for a few moments in Bolton's mind or maybe even a day or two, but Astrology was possible for the Derby. That would have pushed Santiva out and Jaycito into the bottom spot with $250,000. That also pushed stable mate Silver Medallion all the way down to the 25th spot, pushing down hopes of Silver Medallion connections to make the Derby.

Asmussen received some good news that day that jockey Corey Nakatani had committed to riding Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) runner-up Nehro. Nakatani had also been riding Santa Anita Derby second, Comma to the Top but had chosen Nehro for the Derby. Comma to the Top trainer Gary Barber was prepared and quickly named jockey Pat Valenzuela to ride in Kentucky. Valenzuela won the 1989 Kentucky Derby aboard Sunday Silence.

Then Tuesday came and the defections began. As expected, J P’s Gusto was taken out of the Derby after finishing seventh in the Rebel (gr. 2) and eighth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1). Soon Bolton came with the expected news that Astrology would in fact, not run.

Santiva and Watch Me Go were back in the Derby. Then trainer Bob Baffert, who had just announced that Jaycito would not run, confirmed the same about Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor. The Factor had been recovering successfully from surgery to repair an entrapped epiglottis that was the likely cause of The Factor's dismal third in the Arkansas Derby. But the son of War Front was nowhere near ready to compete in the Kentucky Derby.

Suddenly, Shackleford and Twinspired are in the Kentucky Derby and the cutoff has gone all the way down to $197,500. That again takes us back to Silver Medallion, who now is on the bubble, ranked at 21st with his $194,334.

As soon as Twinspired gets the nod, jockey Robbie Alabardo is forced into a decision between the second-place finisher in the Blue Grass and Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) winner Animal Kingdom. Albarado chose Animal Kingdom leaving Twinspired trainer Mike Maker without a rider. Maker was ready and quickly named Mike Smith to ride Twinspired. Smith won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard Giacomo and was the regular rider for Horse of the Year Zenyatta more recently.

One conundrum that hits Kentucky Derby owners and trainers each year this time, is the opportunity to replace a regular, lesser-known, regional jockey with a nationally established rider for the Run for the Roses. Derby experience can be vital to a jockey who needs to negotiate through the 19 other horses and all the potential trouble thereof. But it's usually the local guy that rode all those races that got the horse to the big dance.

In 2009, Calvin Borel (photo left) picked up the mount on longshot Mine That Bird, who had made his last start in the then un-graded Sunland Derby. Casey Lambert, a stalwart rider in the Southwest for many years, had ridden Mine That Bird in his races at Sunland but had never ridden in the Kentucky Derby. Borel, who had won the Kentucky Derby on Street Sense two years earlier and was a regular rider at Churchill Downs, was given the mount on Mine That Bird and together they won the Derby.

This year, the Sunland Derby was a grade 3 and winner Twice The Appeal is in Kentucky with trainer Jeff Bonde. And like 2009, Borel takes the mount on the Sunland Derby horse while jockey Christian Santiago Reyes, while the 2009 champion apprentice in earnings, bowed out to the more experienced Borel.

The team behind Decisive Moment took the loyalty road with regard to their riding chores. Kerwin Clarke, a 52-year-old mainstay on the Louisiana circuit, picked up the mount on Decisive Moment because of his experience riding at Delta Downs in the Delta Downs Jackpot (gr. 3) last November. They finished second at Delta but won the ungraded Jean Lafitte the next race. Back in graded competition, Decisive Moment was fifth in the Risen Star (gr. 2) then second in the Spiral, but Saturday, owner Ruben Sierra announced that the 52-year-old Clarke – with former Derby winners such as Kent Desormeaux and Edgar Prado without mounts, would get the mount on Decisive Moment in the Kentucky Derby.

When J P’s Gusto was withdrawn from the Derby Tuesday, it marked the second time in three years that jockey Cliff Berry lost his first chance to ride the Kentucky in the days leading up to the race. In 2009, Berry was set to ride Rebel Stakes winner Win Willy in Kentucky before his was withdrawn in the final week. The 48-year-old Berry has been a leading rider in Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas in recent years and won the 2011 grade 1 Oaklawn Handicap this year with Win Willy.

Just in case you're now comfortable with the Kentucky Derby field, the last chance for more graded earnings comes a week before the Kentucky Derby when they run the Derby Trial (gr. 3) Saturday night at Churchill.

The Factor Fights Favorite Failures and More In Arkansas Derby

It has not been a good season for favorites in the grade 1 prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands.

Most notably, Uncle Mo finished third in Saturday’s Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) Saturday at Aqueduct in what was described by track announcer Tom Durkin as the biggest upset since Secretariat. Further south, Soldat finished a dismal fifth as the 3-2 choice behind winner Dialed In in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) while the 2011 Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) could easily borrow from a Saratoga moniker as the graveyard of favorites.

This year’s Santa Anita Derby lost not one, but three favorites. Morning line favorite Premier Pegasus was the first to be withdrawn after a hairline fracture was diagnosed just days before the race. The Bob Baffert-trained Jaycito took over as the favorite but a foot abscess forced him to be scratched on the Friday before the race. When the dust and scratches finally settled before the race, Silver Medallion inherited the roll of post time favorite but then finished fourth behind winner Midnight Interlude at 13-1.

In the world of logic and reality, those races and their upsets thereof, should have absolutely no impact on the Arkansas Derby this Saturday, one of the last two grade 1 prep races on the road to the Kentucky Derby along with the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes the same day at Keeneland.

Arkansas Derby morning line favorite The Factor, has enough challenges ahead of him on Saturday. A natural speedster who trainer Bob Baffert has likened to a runaway train, The Factor will likely have some company during the early stages of the Arkansas Derby - something he has not dealt with since his only loss, a race against maidens in his first start in November. The Todd Pletcher-trained Dance City has shown he likes the lead in winning a maiden and allowance race at Gulfstream Park racing on lead more often than not. Another from the Pletcher barn, Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) winner Brethren also likes to lead the pack from the start.

If by chance The Factor is unable to relax early and use up energy against the aforementioned front runners, there are several closers waiting in the wings.

The Steve Asmussen-trained Nehro was just a neck short of defeating Pants on Fire in the grade 2 Louisiana Derby while racing from a stalking position and having to fight for running room down the stretch. He also broke his maiden two starts back at Oaklawn, coming from as far back as 11th, some 12 lengths behind the winner, so the son of former Horse of the Year Mineshaft has repeatedly shown he can make a late move.

Another closer, Sway Away, may have bounced when running sixth behind The Factor in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 3), also at Oaklawn. A month earlier in Southern California, Sway Away’s late rally fell less than a length short of chatching The Factor in the seven furlong San Vincente.

Trip handicappers looking for an Arkansas Derby winner will be looking closely at Elite Alex. A son of 2005 Arkansas Derby winner Afleet Alex, the Tim Ritchie trainee was very wide in both the Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds and the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3), races in which he was fourth and third respectively.

The final hurdle The Factor may have to overcome is that of genetics. I say “may” because we can only suspect that sons and daughters of The Factor’s sire, War Front, will have similar running tendancies and War Front was a solid, multiple, graded stakes winning sprinter. On the bottom side of The Factor’s pedigree, his dam is by Rubianno, a champion sprinter.

The folks at Claiborne Farm, home to War Front, have certainly had their celebrations and toasts to War Front during this, his first crop of 3-year-old runners. Other War Front get Soldat and Summer Soiree are both headed to Kentucky for Kentucky Derby week. Soldat for the Derby and Summer Soiree is headed for the Kentucky Oaks (gr. 1). Soldat won the 1-1/8 mile Fountain of Youth Stakes, so that works in The Factor’s favor in trying the same distance for the first time in the Arkansas Derby. But the genetic question remains and will get asked again should The Factor succeed in Hot Springs.

Based on other major Kentucky Derby prep races this year, one may suggest there is a cosmic influence that has so cursed the favorites. But even if the more sensible examine Saturday Arkansas Derby, it appears 7-5 morning line favorite The Factor has plenty of adversity – star alignment or not.