The Brock Talk

Sunday, April 19, 2009

Muskat Man Is My Longshot

If the odds I posted today are any indication of the real post time odds at Churchill Downs, it looks like Muskat Man will be a longshot. We have him listed at 15-1 (the winning bettor would receive $15 for every $1 wagered) and we've seen him listed as high as 20-1 in some places.

Based on his race history (past performances) he looks to me to be a pretty good longshot wager. And if your going to bet a trifecta, you may as well have a long shot somewhere on your ticket.

Not many times will you have a chance to get 15-1 odds on a horse that is a multiple graded stakes winner, having won the gr. 3 Tampa Bay Derby in March and the gr. 2 Illinois Derby in his last race in April. The Illinois Derby was an impressive effort in my mind for a few reasons. He swept to the lead around the far turn and held the lead throughout the long stretch of Hawthorne Race Course for a two-length lead over second-place finisher Giant Oak.

His stalking running style, which allows him to race and relax behind the early leaders before making is move, is just the kind of running style that can win the Derby. And the long stretch run at Hawthorne will be similar to the final run at Churchill Downs.

It doesn't hurt that jockey Eibar Coa decided to ride Muskat Man in the Derby over General Quarters, who Coa rode to victory in the gr. 1 Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland on April 11.

I also like the fact that Muskat Man had a nice foundation of two starts last year as a 2-year-old and has trained and raced up to the Derby on what appears to be an untroubled path of four well placed races this year.

His doesn't have the speed figures that one likes to see having only achieved a 98 in the Illinois Derby compared to the 100+ speed figures of other contenders, but that's why he is 15-1.


Anonymous said...

Great to find you still talking horses!

Unknown said...

Hope to see you here more often... maybe even blogging horses as well.