Kentucky Derby Trail Rocky For 2011 Debuts

It all started on Jan. 20 when Mucho Macho Man finished fourth as the favorite in the grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Mucho Macho Man was making his 3-year-old debut in the Holy Bull after finishing second behind Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) hopeful To Honor and Serve in the grade 2 Remsen and grade 2 Nashua Stakes in his final races last year.

Then Mucho Macho Man came back Feb. 19 to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 2) at Fair Grounds, defeating Santiva in second and favorite Rogue Romance in third. Like Mucho Macho Man a month before, Rogue Romance was making his career debut after finishing third in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) behind Uncle Mo last fall. And like Mucho Macho Man, Rogue Romance stumbled.

A week prior to the Risen Star, similar circumstances and results occurred at Northern California’s Golden Gate Fields in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. 3). The highly regarded star making his first start of 2011 was Comma to the Top, winner of the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park in December. Like his classmates, Comma to the Top disappointed, running fourth, 4-1/2 lengths behind winner Silver Medalion.

Two days after the Risen Star, J.P.’s Gusto makes his 2011 debut by running a troubled second in the Southwest Stakes Feb. 21 at Oaklawn Park. As a 2-year-old, the son of Successful Appeal won the Hollywood Juvenile Championship (gr. 3), Best Pal Stakes (gr. 2), and Del Mar Futurity (gr. 1). In the Southwest Stakes, J.P’s Gusto was making his first start of the year and first since he was sixth in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs in November.

In the Southwest, J.P.’s Gusto had plenty of excuses, having been boxed in no where to run from the half-mile pole until the field turned for home nearly a quarter of a mile later. His loss may be easier to understand and accept compared to the others, but it also remains a less than perfect preparation for the Derby.

Five days later at Gulfstream Park, To Honor and Serve made his 2011 debut and flopped like the other promising 3-year-olds chasing dreams of roses. As eventual winner Soldat turned for home To Honor and Serve had a shot at him but never responed. Now trainer Bill Mott is expected to start To Honor and Serve next in the Florida Derby (gr. 1), Apr. 3 at Gulfstream Park.

Stay Thirsty won his first start of the year Saturday while taking the grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, but there was much that might concern trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole, who also owns Uncle Mo. Stay Thirsty certainly did not dominate the Gotham field as expected and Toby’s Corner was the only stakes winner in the group. The son of Benardini switched to his wrong lead turning for home and never went back to his correct lead again until nearing the wire. And with stablemate Uncle Mo being pointed toward the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) next month, Stay Thirsty may have to leave New York for his final Kentucky Derby prep. That should not be too much of a challenge as Stay Thirsty has been stabled all winter in Florida, but it might be a late schedule change none-the-less.

There are two stars from last year yet to make their debut on the Kentucky Derby trail, but their days are coming soon. Perhaps the most anticipated is Uncle Mo, who is expected to run In either the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park or the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2) in Tampa. Both races are this Saturday, Mar. 12 and the connections behind last year's Champion Two-Year-Old Male have said they are prepared for Tampa should the Timely Writer not attract enough competitors.

Then there is Jaycito in Southern California in trainer Bob Baffert’s barn. Winner of the Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) last fall during the Oak Tree meeting at Hollywood Park, Jaycito was an erratic seventh in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile under a different trainer. but multiple fast works at both Hollywood Park and Santa Anita have Baffert pointing Jaycito toward the San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) Mar. 12.

With two months left until the Kentucky Derby, there has not been a dazzling debut of a star from 2010. Yet. In fact, there have been few winning ones in the Kentucky Derby prep races that have dotted the calendars during this spring. Of course the most anticipated debut this year has yet to come in Uncle Mo. But we have just days to wait for that. Jaycito and the Steve Asmussen-trained Astrology are a few others and they’re just more than a weeks away from their first start this year.

So here’s hoping for success to all 2011 debuts. And it’s nice to be dazzled every once-in-a-while too.

Swing For The Fences When Betting Kentucky Derby Future Wagers

Looking at Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) lists from the Associated Press to the Horse Racing Nation website, it’s appears there is somewhat of a consensus on the top contenders. Nearly every list has Uncle Mo, Dialed In, Soldat, and To Honor and Serve in their top five. Jaycito and Mucho Macho Man are getting their recognition as are Brethren and Santiva.

It would not be a great handicapping feat to pick any of these horses to win the Run for the Roses – even in early March – and most future book odds reflect that. According to the Kentucky Derby future odds from the Wynn Las Vegas Race & Sports Book as published in the Louisville Courier-Journal, Uncle Mo is currently 7-2, followed by Dialed In at 8-1, To Honor and Serve at 10-1, Soldat at 15-1, Mucho Macho Man and Jaycito at 18-1, Brethren at 20-1 and Santiva at 22-1. The realistic odds of Uncle Mo (or any other horse for that matter)even starting in the Derby are may not be too far away from 7-2 at this point. On must certainly factor in the inherent risk any 3-year-old Thoroughbred colt faces in the last two months leading up to the first Saturday in May. Consider the fact that last year’s Derby favorite, Lookin at Lucky, went to the gate at odds of more than 6-1. This time last year, Lookin at Lucky was also on the same level of promise as Uncle Mo currently. So 7-2 on Uncle now isn’t practical.

Almost the same analogy can be applied to the current second and third choices in the future book this year. Super Saver went to the post at 8-1 in the Derby last year and Dialed In is currently 8-1 in the future book at Wynn Las Vegas Race & Sports Book. Sidney’s Candy was the third betting choice in Kentucky last year at 9.5-1. If To Honor and Serve was to be third choice in the Derby this year, it is feasible he will also be in the 10-1 range. Why bet those same odds now?

But if one likes to bet the Kentucky Derby future books, there are horses that have some promise with equally intriguing odds.

So far the Rodney Dangerfield of the sophomore class of 2011 is Archarcharch, winner of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The last seven runnings of the Arkansas Derby have given us Papa Clem, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones. Currently Archarcharch sits atop that potential Arkansas contingent and he comes from the rising star stable of Bret Calhoun. At 85-1 on the future book, he may present some value.

Another future book bet that may capture your attention is Comma To The Top, listed at 50-1 on some future books. Among the leading Derby contenders after ending his 2-year-old season with five straight wins including the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park Dec. 18, the son of Bwana Charlie flopped in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. 3) Feb. 12, finishing fourth behind winner Silver Medalion. He has since trained well in the morning for trainer Peter Miller, working :58-4/5 at Hollywood Park (2nd fastest among 34) Feb. 28. So if you think the El Camino Real was an aberration, Comma to the Top has the odds to bet the future book.

A little further down the line of potential returns is Sway Away at 30-1. He came from last to second behind The Factor in the seven furlong San Vicente Stakes on a track that was favoring speed. Also second to J.P.’s Gusto in the grade 2 Best Pal Stakes last year, Sway Away may make his next start in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) at Oaklawn Park Mar. 19, the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) Mar. 26 or the Sunland Derby (gr. 3 Mar. 27.

Whether it be Sway Away at 30-1 or Archarcharch at 85-1, if wagering on the Kentucky Derby future book, one must certainly look for attractive prices. Don’t be lured in by marginal odds at 25-1 or less. There is a good chance those odds will be very similar on a given horse on the first Saturday in May. Remember too that Old Man Time and his associates - injury and racing luck – are standing smack in the path between your selection and the Kentucky Derby two months away.

There is nothing more deflating than holding a future book ticket on a Kentucky Derby starter on Derby day, looking at the tote-board and seeing current odds looking eerily similar to those on your future book stub. Just as there is nothing more exhilarating than cashing a future book bet on a Derby winner at 85-1 as he crosses the finish line at 10-1 or thereabouts.
So if you’re compelled to bet a future book – swing for the fences my friend.