Uncle Mo Shadow Will Not Cast Over Stay Thirsty Stud Career

In what might be the greatest revenge in the stallion community since the success of Alydar over Affirmed, Stay Thirsty appears destined to do the same to Uncle Mo. The Uncle Mo/Stay Thirsty rivalry on the track does not compare to the battle tested years Affirmed and Alydar went at each other. Alydar and Affirmed (photo right) met five times as 2-year-olds and four more times at age three. Affirmed won seven times including the epic Triple Crown of 1978; and Alydar won two, including their last meeting in the 1978 Travers when he won through the disqualification of Affirmed.

At stud, Alydar was a major success producing Belmont winner Easy Goer and Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Alysheba among his get. He was the leading sire in North America in 1990, sire of 10 champions and his runners earned more than $24 million. Affirmed became known more as a producer of turf runners, with perhaps his best runners being the multiple grass champion filly Flawlessly; and Arlington Million winner The Tin Man. Affirmed had similar numbers as Alydar with 9 champions, but Alydar’s stallion career ended at the peak of his productivity when he mysteriously suffered a shattered leg while in his stall and had to be euthanized.

Stay Thirsty and Uncle Mo met only twice on the track, both in Breeders’ Cup races at Churchill Downs. Last year, Stay Thirsty was fifth to Uncle Mo’s victory in the Juvenile. This year Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty finished 10th and 11th respectively in the Classic. So they really didn’t have much of a rivalry on the track.

But there was a rivalry for recognition between the two, especially since both came from the same shed row of trainer Todd Pletcher and raced for outgoing owner Mike Repole. And no matter what he did, Stay Thirsty seem to ever remain in the shadow of his stable mate Uncle Mo.

Uncle Mo was everybody’s all-everything from the time he broke his maiden by 14-1/2 lengths at Saratoga through his undefeated championship season and being the winter racebook favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, during his 2-year-old seaso, Stay Thirsty had finished second to Boys At Toscanova in the Hopeful Stakes after breaking also breaking his maiden at Saratoga, but only by five lengths. Stay Thirsty went into the Juvenile as an anonymous 13-to-1 shot and came out as a fifth-place whatchmacallit.

Things looked up for Stay Thirsty (photo left) after winning the Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct in early March, but after a seventh-place finish in the Florida Derby and a 12th in the Kentucky Derby, Stay Thirsty was moving ever closer to staying home. A second-place finish to Ruler on Ice in the Belmont Stakes awoke some, but not enough to make Stay Thirsty the favorite in his next start, the grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes. Stay Thirsty won the Jim Dandy impressively by four lengths and went to the Travers as the favorite, but only by one dime to the dollar more popular. Stay Thirsty was 2.5-to-1 in the Jim Dandy and the 2.4-to-1 favorite in the Travers.

As if aware of the slight, Stay Thirsty galloped around the Saratoga oval and won the Travers nearly gate-to-wire and suddenly he was atop the 3-year-old class looking down. In his first test against older horses in the grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, Stay Thirsty was a good third behind eventual Classic winner Drosselmeyer and Classic favorite Flat Out. He looked primed to be competitive and possibly be among the favorites for the Classic.

But earlier that same day at Belmont, Uncle Mo had turned heads by winning the grade 1 Kelso Mile in only his second race after being sidelined and missing the Triple Crown. And during the weeks leading up to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, Uncle Mo again took the spotlight from Stay Thirsty.

Owner Mike Repole decided to run Uncle Mo in the Classic instead of the Dirt Mile and before the Classic, Uncle Mo would go off at 5-to-1 odds compared to Stay Thirsty back in double digits at 11-to-1.

Uncle Mo will have a year to get the jump on Stay Thirsty in the breeding shed, but I doubt it will make much of a difference.

Uncle Mo begins his stallion career as the grandson of In Excess (Ire), one of the top stallions in California before being pensioned in July. Stay Thirsty, who will race at age four according to his Facebook page, will begin his stallion career next year as the grandson of A.P. Indy, one of the top stallions of his generation.

Uncle Mo is by Indian Charlie, whose first runners hit the track in 2002 and who stood last year at Airdrie Stud in Midway, Kentucky for $70,000. On the track, Indian Charlie’s biggest win came in the 1-1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby. As one might expect from his racing career, Indian Charlie has had a difficult time producing any runners that could go to the next level at 1-1/4 miles.

Stay Thirsty is by Bernardini, winner of the Preakness, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup - two of which are at the classic distance of 1-1/4 miles. After his first crop hit the track this year as 3-year-olds with Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve among them, Bernardini’s fee has been raised to $150,000 by Darley Stud in Lexington, Kentucky.

Uncle Mo has the 2-year-old championship but in the end, Stay Thirsty has something much more important to breeders’, a grade 1 win at 10 furlongs (1-1/4 miles). In fact, Uncle Mo never won at 1-1/8 miles, finishing third in the Wood Memorial in his only attempt at that distance. Stay Thirsty won the 9 furlong Jim Dandy and 1-1/4 mile Travers.

Americans are known to breed for speed and Uncle Mo is well armed with pedigree and past performances to produce that in his runners.

But Americans still pay for distance. And Stay Thirsty will be much more likely to produce winners who can compete at the Classic distance. And likely to some day emerge from the Shadow of Uncle Mo and shine as if he was Alydar himself.

Breeders' Cup Losses: If It Makes You Feel Any Better...

Well, Breeders’ Cup 2011 is in the books and there were some pretty-pretty-pretty big disappointments - pretty big disappointments at Churchill Downs this weekend.

All-in-all it was another great two days of racing with plenty of champions and stories resulting. The story of jockey

Joseph O’Brien winning the Turf aboard St. Nichols Abbey (IRE) for his father, trainer Aidan, ranks as one of the best stories of this year's World Championships. (Ire). (How closely related Joseph O'Brien is to Taylor Swift is a topic for another blog but...) Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott taking both the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday with Drosselmeyer and the Ladies Classic Friday with Royal Delta; are also among the more popular story lines.

But the disappointsments certainly have their share of the round ups, reviews and results.

From a wagering standpoint, the three biggest disappointments were Union Rags, Goldikova and Turbulent Descent. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle was the biggest favorite of the day. Going to the post with 2-to-5 odds, Secret Circle managed to fight off the late charge of runner-up Shumoss and getting off to a popular start. Two more favorites would win Breeders’ Cup races Friday afternoon and early evening with Miss Aurelia winning the Grey Goose Juvenile Fillies and the Ladies Classic going to Royal Delta. But there were some diffucult races for handicappers and fans in between.

The most popular loser Friday was Turbulent Descent, who was given the lowest morning line odds at 6-to-5 in the Filly and Mare Sprint by Churchill Downs line maker Mike Battaglia. Battaglia was not far off on his line as Turbulent Descent went to the gate with 7-to-5 odds, only to finish fifth behind $42.40 long shot winner Musical Romance.

But Turbulent Descent was far from the biggest disappointment during the 28th running of the Breeders’ Cup. That honor goes to Union Rags, the second-place finisher in the $2 million Juvenile at 11-to-10 Saturday. But don’t blame the young son of Dixie Union too much. After breaking well from post ten, jockey Javier Castellano could not manage any closer to the rail in the short run to the first turn and was caught four wide. Allowing Union Rags to relax in a comfortable stride down the backstretch, Castellano never left the four path, and was again caught wide around the far turn. Union Rags made a great effort down the long Churchill Downs stretch running at eventual winner Hansen, but fell a dramatic head short.

The second most bitter pill to swallow from a wagering standpoint, also came Saturday at Churchill Downs when Goldikova failed to extend her current record to four consecutive victories in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Just as last year, Goldikova went to post as the 13-to-10 favorite, but this year, traffic problems persisted from the first turn to the home stretch. After an aggressive move turning for home by her jockey Olivier Pelier turning, Goldikova tried valiantly before falling short and but still managed third place. An objection was filed against Goldikova by rider Pat Valenzuela on Courageous Cat, but the steward's left the original order of finish.

Had Goldikova won her four Breeders’ Cup Miles, she would have not quite reached trainer Woody Stephens and his five straight Belmont Stakes victories from 1982 to ’86 or Kelso's five consecutive wins in the Jockey Club Gold Cup from 1960-’64. But it would have been quite historic none-the-less. Goldikova is the only horse to win three Breeders’ Cup races - to extend that record would have certainly added to her legacy and the history of the Breeders’ Cup as an international event. Goldikova does have four wins in the prestigious French Prix Rothschile Stakes at Deauville Racecourse among her 17 group and grade 1 wins which is also a record for European females.

No matter the degree of disappointment felt by Goldikova, Union Rags or Turbulent Descent supporters, these pale in comparison to other heavy favorites defeated in previous Breeders’ Cups. Easy Goer supporters went through two beatings from the Breeders' Cup mutuel clerks. As a once defeated 2-year-old, Easy Goer was the 3-to-10 favorite in the 1988 Juvenile, but finished second to Is It True. Like Union Rags, Easy Goer had obstacles galore in the Juvenile including getting bumped at the start by Mountain Ghost, racing wide around the far turn and then jumping the gate tracks nearing the black and white sixteenth pole before the finish.

A year later, Easy Goer was again the favorite in the Classic, this time at 1-to-2, and with a chance to even the score with his west coast nemesis Sunday Silence. Sunday Silence had defeated Easy Goer in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before Easy Goer won the Belmont.

Again, Easy Goer was second to Sunday Silence and was then the record holder of the top two spots on the list of shortest priced Breeders' Cup losers. Housebuster took the second spot away from Easy Goer on the infamous list when he lost the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Sprint at 2-to-5 when ninth behind winner Sheikh Albadou.

In the seven original Breeders’ Cup races, (Classic, Ladies Classic, Turf, Mile, Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Sprint) there have been some 20 odds-on horses defeated. The Breeders’ Cup Turf leads the way as the favorite killer with five going down below even odds from Dancing Brave in 1986, to Sky Classic (’92), Paradise Creek (’94), Kitten’s Joy (’04) and Dylan Thomas in 2007. The Ladies Classic has also not been friendly to odds-on runners. Infirmed in 1987, was the first to be defeated below even odds in the Distaff and has been followed by Banshee Breeze (’08), Robilita (’98) and Sighseek in 2003.

The Classic too has seen four very popular runners leave the course in defeat, beginning with Slew O’Gold in the first Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1984. Off at 3-to-5 coupled with stable mate Mugatea, Slew O’Gold finished third but placed second through disqualification behind 30-1 winner Wild Again. Joining Slew O’Gold and Easy Goer are Cigar losing the Classic at .65-to-1 in 1996 and Curlin losing as the heavy favorite at 9-to-10 in the 2008 Classic.

Yes there were impasses in the Breeders’ Cup this year. Losses by Havre de Grace, Flat Out, Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty are among the hardest felt by their fans, regardless of odds. Many popular Breeders' Cup losers before them have returned to write a different chapter to their racing careers. Others have not and retired to attempted to allow time and their breeding careers try to erase their Breeders' Cup calamities. No doubt that just as those memories of losses faded, those loses from this year will also deminish.

Breeders' Cup Saturday Selections

The Breeders' Cup continues today at Churchill Downs with the first Breeders' Cup race (the Marathon) set to break from the gate at 1:20 ET as race three. Seven races are on the docket today culminated by the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

We got the day off right with my Secret Choice, the most likely winner of the two-day event, taking the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. I thought I was on a roll as Stephanie's Kitten won the Juvenile Fillies Turf at 6-1 odds, but things began to go awry when Musical Romance won the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint at 20-1 and Perfect Shirl won the Emirates Airlines Filly and Mare Turf and paid $57.20. I had neither and they both ruined pick-3 tickets.

Today is another day filled with more Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs and I'm hoping Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott get my day started off right and I'm raising my glass to the East toasting trainer Charles "Scooter" Dickey and Flat Out.

Here are my selections and comments for the day.

Breeders' Cup Marathon
#1. Birdrun - As I said, I'm hoping trainer Bill Mott keeps his winning going after taking the Ladies Classic last night with Royal Delta. This son of Belmont winner Birdstone has already shown he can run all day after winning the 1-1/2 Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont Park in June. He won't need to run all day, but a good last quarter in the 1-3/4 mile Marathon is what I'm looking for.

Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
#5. Wrote - Tough race to widdle down to one winner, but European invader Wrote will get the nod from The Brock Talk in the Juvenile Turf. He comes from the barn of Irish superstar trainer Aidan O'Brien who saw Wrote finish third in the group 2 Juddmonte Farm Royal Lodge Stakes in his last race. I like to see a last race that is a bit sharper, but he encountered some traffic challenges that looked to have cost him. A cleaner trip in the Juvenile Turf should provide better results.

Breeders' Cup Sprint
#5. Jackson Bend - Made a big run at Classic fave Uncle Mo in the Kelso Handicap last time out, but was shut off by Uncle Mo while trying to make a move at the top of the stretch at Belmont Park. I'm not saying he was on his way to defeating Uncle Mo, but it looked like he lost enough momentum to keep him from launching a bigger challenge. There's no Uncle Mo in the Breeders' Cup Sprint and Jackson Bend should again show the form he had in winning the grade 1 Forego at Saratoga in September.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#8. Regally Ready - His be st race came over the Churchill Downs Turf Course at today's distance of five furlongs when he captured the grade 3 Turf Sprint in May. Last November, he won an allowance race by seven lengths, again on Churchill Downs turf at five furlongs, so this is you "Horse for the Course" angle.

TVG Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#8. Caleb's Posse - A disappointment running third to Wilburn in the Indiana Derby (gr. 2) where a slow-slow pace hurt this come-from-behind specialist. Considered a possible Kentucky Derby horse early in the year, Caleb's Posse won the one mile Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park in January. Also won the Ohio Derby (gr. 3) at 1-1/16 miles in June and two graded sprints at Saratoga in August.

Emirates Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
#9. Midday - Upset second-place finisher in last year's Filly and Mare Turf, Midday returns to Churchill this year to take on the boys. Although this race has never been won by a horse going gate-to-wire, there is a shortage of speed in the 2011 version of this 1-3/8 mile race. Was restrained and taken back to last in the early stages of her last race, where she finished her career worst fifth in the group 1 Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot. In her previous races this year, she was much closer to the early lead and won the group 2 Totesport.com Middleton Stakes at York in May and the group 1 Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes at Goodwood in July.

Breedes' Cup Juvenile
#2. Dullahan - Morning line favorite Union Rags will be difficult to beat but Dullahan brings plenty of ammunition into the Juvenile. Trained by Dale Romans, Dullahan won the grade 1 Dixiana Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last out after being steadied in the first turn. Coming off of the Polytrack surface to Churchill Downs is of less concern as time goes on after Animal Kingdom won the Derby coming off a Polytrack win at Turfway Park.

TVG Breeders' Cup Mile
#1. Goldikova - I'm not picking against her. I'm not betting against her. I'm just going to sit back and watch the great mare try to win her fourth straight Breeders Cup Mile.

Breeders' Cup Classic
#2. Flat Out - Favorite Uncle Mo won't be able to get the 1-1/4 mile Classic based on his breeding and quite frankly his one mile preparation for this race. The big filly Havre de Grace looks good on paper, but her training this week as been suspect. That leaves Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out at 6-1 odds.

Process of Elimination Produces Classic Winner

There is money to be made betting on the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year.

The large 13-horse field will create large pools and Uncle Mo, the popular Champion 2-Year-Old Male and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner from last year, is the very beatable morning line favorite at 5-2. Uncle Mo is by the respected sire Indian Charlie who commands a $70,000 fee from his home at Airdre Stud in Midway, Kentucky. Since his first crop hit the track in 2002, Indian Charlie has produced more than 1,000 winners and more than 100 stakes wins. Along with Uncle Mo, Indian Charlie’s daughters Fleet Indian and Indian Blessing were also champions. Of the three, however, only Fleet Indian won at the Classic distance of 10 furlongs (1.25 miles). She won both the Personal Ensign Stakes in New York and the Delaware Handicap, both at 1-1/4 miles.

Indian Charlie’s nine furlong stigma is further illustrated by his racing career. After winning the prestigious 1-1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby, he finished third to Real Quiet in the Derby. The comment in the Daily Racing Form official chart for Indian Charlie, “held on well to the final furlong then weakened.” In other words, at nine furlongs Indian Charlie was a world beater. But between that last green and white pole and the finish line of a 1-1/4 race, folks from episode one of Biggest Loser were faster.

Combine his distance challenged genetics with his preparation for the Classic in the one mile Kelso Handic ap Oct. 1 at Belmont, and Uncle Mo gets cut from my list of top contenders. Be mindful that Uncle Mo should be the one to catch turning for home and should keep that lead deep into the stretch. So don’t leave him out of any exotic tickets you are considering.
Havre de Grace, the popular 4-year-old filly that already defeated older males this year in the Woodward Stakes, also gets crossed off my Classic list. Should she prove me wrong and win the Classic, Havre de Grace should become the third consecutive female Horse of the Year.

But questions were raised about her training when she abruptly stopped after a five furlong work in 1:02 flat Monday at Churchill. A week earlier at Keeneland, Havre de Grace put in a quick five furlong work over their polytrack, stopping the clock in :58.3. Everything else on her past performances places her among my top choices, but the quick stop in the work is enough of a red flag in a race as competitive as this Classic.

Ruler On Ice, Ice Box, Rattlesnake Bridge and Headache are all long shots, each listed at 30-1 in the morning line. The handicapping paradox however, is that these four represent the only closers in this year’s Classic. Five of the seven Breeders’ Cup Classic winners at Churchill Downs have come from well off the pace including last year’s winner Blame. Closers are also known to have done well in the Kentucky Derby in recent years, giving additional credence to assumption.

It is always difficult to exclude trainer Nick Zito, but his Ice Box has been defeated by nearly 30 lengths in his last two races. History shows that horses need to come into the Classic off of a much better efforts than that. No horse has won the Classic without finishing first, second or third in their final start before the Classic. Rattlesnake Bridge, while third in the Pennsylvania Derby last out behind To Honor and Serve and Ruler On Ice, has never hit triple digit Beyer numbers which makes it difficult to imagine him hitting that big race Saturday. Headache is also speed figure challenged but he has three career wins at Churchill Downs. Ruler On Ice has the Belmont Stakes on his resume so distance should not be a challenge for him and his performance in the Pennsylvania Derby last race was strong.

Game On Dude, winner of the 10 furlong Santa Anita Handicap in March and the Goodwood at 1-1/8 miles in October, has had a difficult time putting together two consecutive good starts. He did win an Optional Claiming before winning the Santa Anita Handicap, but failed to win in the next four starts until the Goodwood. A close second in the Hollywood Gold Cup and a fourth in the Pacific Classic were among those losses, but he looks to need to take a step up from even his career best to win Saturday.

Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve were both on the road to the Kentucky Derby earlier this year but only Stay Thirsty made it. Unfortunately, he finished 12th. In fact, Stay Thirsty has had two starts at Churchill, neither with much success with a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year under the twin spires. Stay Thirsty skipped the Preakness, returned in the Belmont to finish second to Ruler on Ice and eventually became the star 3-year-old of the summer. After two big wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers, he was a solid third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup behind Classic foes Flat Out and Drosselmeyer.
To Honor and Serve also comes into the Classic on a two-race winning streak, taking the Pennsylvania Derby in his last race winning at optional claiming race against older horses at Saratoga before that.

However, neither Stay Thirsty nor To Honor and Serve look quite exceptional enough to win the Classic as 3-year-olds.

The three older horses that will be getting plenty of support will be European invader So You Think (NZ); and Flat Out and Drosselmeyer, the top two finishers in the Jockey Club Gold Cup respectively. Euros, Asians have had little success in the Classic, save for Raven’s Pass winning over Santa Anita’s artificial surface in 2008.

That leaves Flat Out and Drosselmeyer, two older horses that have been turning heads during morning training hours. Not so much that they have been blazing bullet works back and forth, but reports are that both are training with ease and aggressiveness. Flat Out and trainer Charles “Scooter” Dickey provide a good story, but its performance that attracts wagers and Flat Out has shown no indication that the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a peak performance.

Flat Out looks to be sharper than Drosselmeyer coming into the Classic, but Drosselmeyer has the flexibility to lay further off the pace and make that big run that can be so important down the long stretch at Churchill Downs. Somebody is going to have to catch Uncle Mo and these two are set to launch a two-pronged attack.

At the wire in the Classic, Flat Out will have the edge over Drosselmeyer with Uncle Mo in third. The long shot with the best chance after Drosselmey is Ruler On Ice.


That leaves, So You Think (NZ), the second choice in the morning line at 5-1, Flat Out (6-1), Game on Dude (10-1), Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve both at 12-1 and Drosselmeyer at 15-1, still left for Classic consideration.

As I said before, there’s money to be made in the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year.

Kelso, Kardashian And Other Breeders' Cup Thoughts, Comments and Questions

After the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series Friday night and the St. Louis Rams defeated the Saints Sunday, I found myself looking through the Breeders’ Cup past performances double-checking there were any Missouri-breds or Fairmont Park ship-ins I missed… Trying to watch the Breeders’ Cup draw reminded me of days holding horse after horse while they were

being shod, proof reading and my doctor's waiting room… The Breeders’ Cup post position draw is another case of the book being much better than the movie… When asked at dinner who was the best Breeders’ Cup story this year, this blogger responded with Classic contender Flat Out, 70-year trainer Charles "Scooter" Dickey (photo) and wife Dana. Win the $5 million Classic or not, it will be difficult to match Scooter’s post Jockey Club Gold Cup when the emotions kept him from initial TV interview. Dana is recovering from a serious illness this year… I remind some angry Tweeters that the morning line is supposed to be the line maker’s prediction of how the public will bet the race. It is not supposed to be the line maker’s order of finish probabilities… This bloggers favorite Breeders’ Cup moment: Tiznow and Giant’s Causeway turning around a very bad day at the races with their $140.80 exacta… Not to dis on Goldikova’s pursuit of four consecutive wins in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but Kelso winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup five times from 1960-64 is the cake taker…

Cold Play
The saddle towels for the first Breeders’ Cup at Hollywood Park were all yellow… ESPN/NBC analysts Jerry Bailey has won a record 15 Breeders’ Cup races. Leading active jockey in same category: Mike Smith with 13 trips to the Breeders’ Cup winners’ circle… This blogger’s least favorite Breeders’ Cup moment excluding injuries and trajedies: Zenyatta losing her first career race to Blame in the 2010 Classic. I see that race now and think to myself that it surely must have been longer than a year ago… Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien invades the United States again. This summer, he completed a Grade 1 double at Arlington Park when he won the Arlington Million with Cape Blanco (Ire) and the Secretariat Stakes with Irish Derby (G1) winner Treasure Beach (Ire)… Biggest disappointment of the week: Uncle Mo in the Classic or the Kim Kardashian marriage.

The Graduates
Stable mates and Classic foes Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty both ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. Uncle Mo won the 2010 Juvenile to finish the year undefeated and was eventually named the divisional champion. Stay Thirsty finished fifth in the 09 Juvenile before winning the 2010 Gotham and Travers Stakes… Shared Account, Uncle Mo, Goldikova, Big Drama, Eldaafer and Chamberlain Bridge return to the Breeders’ Cup as winners of Breeders’ Cup races last year. They are trying to join only eleven other thoroughbreds with multiple Breeders' Cup wins.

Long Grudge Match
Gio Ponti was second to Goldikova last year and returns again in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Longer Grudge Match: Courageous Cat returns to the Mile for the first time since running second to Goldikova two years ago. Longest Grudge Match: Eldaafer will have to defend his title in the Marathon against A.U. Miner and Giant Oak, fourth and fifth-place finishers last year respectively. Should all three start in the Marathon again this year, they will have run 10-1/2 miles in the two races between them... More Grudge Match: Midday returns to avenge her runner-up finish in last year's Filly and Mare Turf to Shared Account, also returning in this year's race.

Ouija Board Says
The great Ouija Board is the only horse to win the same Breeders’ Cup race twice in non consecutive years with a loss in the race in between. Ouija Board won the 2004 and 2006 Filly and Mare Turf but was second in that race in 2005. Da Hoss won the 1996 and 1998 Mile but missed the 1997 version of the race. California Flag tries to match Ouija Board after winning the Turf Sprint in 2009 and finishing 8th in that race last year.

Uncle Mo's 220 Yard Elephant

After Uncle Mo (photo) won the grade 1 Kelso Handicap during Belmont Park’s Super Saturday card Oct. 1, many assumed owner Mike Repole (photo below) would send the colt to the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile for his next race instead of the 10 furlong Breeders’ Cup Classic.

After all, the Kelso was a “Win and You’re In” race for the Breeders' Cup Mile, meaning all entry fees for Uncle Mo would be forgone for the $1 million Mile on Breeders’ Cup Saturday. Secondly, the Kelso victory was over older horses, so Uncle Mo’s age as a 3-year-old should be no problem in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Although, Uncle Mo carried 117 pounds compared to runner-up Jackson Bend who toted 121 lbs, Uncle Mo was still a convincing winner. And finally, Repole already has Gotham, Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes winner Stay Thirsty headed to Classic. Why not try to win two Breeders’ Cup races that day.

As it stands right now however, Repole wants to have a double barrel shot at the $5 million Classic – Stay Thirsty making up one shot and Uncle Mo the other.

But there is a question regarding Uncle Mo and the classic 1-1/4 distance of the Classic, also run Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs. As a son of the successful stallion Indian Charlie, there is a question as to Uncle Mo running and winning over 1-1/4 miles against grade 1 international competition.

It is not so much Uncle Mo’s ability to run faster than his Breeders’ Up Classic rivals (his 1:33.82 time is among the fastest in the 30-year history of the Kelso and it was over a sloppy track), but can he run fast enough, far enough. The Classic is a full two furlongs (440 yards) further than the one mile Kelso.

Uncle Mo won the 1-1/16 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year at Churchill Downs with ease – winning by four lengths. The only time Uncle Mo ran further, he was third, slightly more than a length behind Toby’s Corner in the World Resort Wood Memorial in April preparing for the Kentucky Derby. But that race must be thrown out, because a rare liver ailment discovered in Uncle Mo was just days after the Wood.

The doubt of whether Uncle Mo can win at 10 furlongs, comes most from the record of his sire Indian Charlie. Indian Charlie won the 9 furlong Santa Anita Derby in 1998 and was favored in the Kentucky Derby that year but finished third to stable mate Real Quiet.

Indian Charlie stood for $10,000 during his first year at stud, but now demands a fee of $70,000 for mare owners. And it is quite deserved based on his success as a stallion. A son of In Excess (IRE), Indian Charlie’s most successful offspring to date are Indian Blessing ($2,995,000), Fleet Indian ($1,704,513), Uncle Mo and Pampered Princess $786,125.

Indian Blessing was the 2007 Champion Juvenile Filly and a triple graded stakes winner at two, winning the seven furlong La Brea, the one mile Frizzette and the 1-1/16 mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies and the Eclipse as Champion 2-Year-Old Filly. Fleet Indian won the Obeah Stakes and Beldame at 1-1/8 miles but also won the Personal Ensign and Delaware Handicap, both at 1-1/4 miles. Pampered Princess won the 1-1/8 Juddmonte Spinster at Keeneland and the ungraded Wayward Lass.

In 2010, Indian Charlie was represented on the Kentucky Derby trail by Conveyance, who looked impressive in winning the San Rafael at Santa Anita and the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn, but both were at one mile. In his last race before the Derby, he was upset by Endorsement in the 1-1/8 Sunland Derby. Conveyance eventually ran in the Kentucky Derby and lead for the first six furlongs, but faded badly and finished 15th to winner Super Saver.

So Indian Charlie has had a winner at the 10 furlong classic distance in Fleet Indian, and both races were against top grade competition. But Indian Charlie has had other offspring that were very impressive at 9 furlongs, but just couldn’t get that extra 220 yards to 1-1/4 miles.

Uncle Mo has followed that pattern of winning at 1-1/8 miles easily and has looked like he could have easily gone the extra furlong without threat. But that was almost a year ago against 2-year-olds in the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In the Kelso, Uncle Mo won so easily, he appeared as if he could have run to Katmando and back and brought Bob Sieger and his band with him.

This year there will be that extra distance, older competition and $3 million additional on the line in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Some say it’s just another furlong. But it’s also a giant eighth-of-a-mile elephant in the room that needs attention as well.

Despite Breeders' Cup Riches, Champagne Thoughts Are Still Of Roses

Last Saturday, Belmont Park presented their prestigious Super Saturday which is also annually billed as the big East coast preview to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships – this year to be held at Churchill Downs in Kentucky on Nov. 5-6. Stars

Uncle Mo (photo right), Havre De Grace, Stacelita and Cape Blanco all put in memorable victories as odds-on favorites and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) winner Flat Out won as the ever so slight second choice at 7-to-5 odds. And now all are headed for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, except Stacelita; ($1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf [gr. 1]); and Cape Blanco, who has been retired.

While Saturday’s Champagne Stakes (gr. 1) is similar to those races in that it is a preview to the Breeders' Cup, (more specifically the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) for these colts), the Champagne has that extra little kick. It is the same extra quality that makes the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or Keeneland’s Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity as captivating as they are. These races are our eyes into the future. Even with the inception of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, the Champagne continues to have that special connection to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1).

First run in 1938, the Breeders’ Futurity is older and quickly had an impact on the Kentucky Derby run seven months later; Johnstown and Whirlaway, the first and third winners of the Breeders’ Futurity, went on to win the 1939 and 1941 Kentucky Derbies respectively. The first Champagne was run in 1946 and Capot became the first Champagne winner to run in the Derby, finishing second to Ponder in the ’49 Run For The Roses. However, Capot would come back and win both the Preakness and Belmont and be one of only a handful of 2-year-olds to be named Horse of the Year.

It would be 1953 before another Champagne winner made it to the Derby, but Fisherman and Flying Fury the year after, would both be also rans in Kentucky. The 1962 Champagne winner Never Bend, came close, finishing second to Chateaugay in the ’63 Derby that also had Candy Spots finishing third and No Robbery fifth. The next year, Champagne champion Roman Brother was fourth to Northern Dancer’s ’64 Derby.

But it would not be until the wild 1970s, that the Champagne Stakes really began to become a bit of Derby crystal ball.

In 1972, Riva Ridge completed the Champagne-Derby double and before the decade was out, Foolish Pleasure (’75), Seattle Slew (’77) (left), and Spectacular Bid (’79) had all done the same. In the 1978 Derby Alydar came up a length and-a-half short from joining the clug and defeating Affirmed. Champagne winners Forty Niner and Easy Goer finished second in consecutive Derbies in 1987-’88; but Sea Hero was able to hit both winners’ circles in the ’92 Champagne and ’93 Derby. Two years later Timber Country became the last to win both races.

Last year, Uncle Mo won the Champagne and was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby for much of the winter. Then a liver ailment was discovered after his first loss in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1), and he missed the Triple Crown.

It is a difficult double to hit, the Champagne-Kentucky double. And the seven months between the two races are a long seven months indeed. Expecting Saturday’s winner to repeat in the Derby is too much. I think we all admit to that. And of course, we have that $1 million Juvenile in three weeks at Churchill to compel us for now. And it is not for us to question the first what surely must be the first thoughts of the winning owner, trainer and jockey tomorrow. They’ll be thinking Kentucky Derby. And so will most of us for that matter.

Breeders' Cup Picture Comes Into Focus

Three impressive winners of grade 1 races Saturday are heading for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic according to their connections, and the trio will likely make up the top three favorites when they go to the post beneath the twin spires of Churchill Downs. One female superstar is among them while another won’t be going to Kentucky to renew the best rivalry in Thoroughbred racing in recent years. A $3 million showdown in the Breeders’ Cup Turf was highly anticipated Sunday evening, but will not materialize as we know now. And then there was that crazy uncle.

That's how the 2011 Breeders’ Cup, to be run Nov. 5,6 at Churchill Downs, is coming into focus.

The three big winners headed for the Classic are Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) winner Flat Out, Goodwood Stakes (gr. 1) winner Game On Dude and the filly who won the Beldame (gr. 1) with ease, Havre de Grace.

Flat Out may have taken the lead away from the absent Tizway in the older horse division with a convincing win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over 2010 Belmont (gr. 1) winner Drosselmeyer and this year's Travers (gr. 1) winner Stay Thirsty. After winning the grade 2 Suburban at Belmont in July, Flat Out finished the summer running second to Tizway in the Whitney and second to the filly Havre de Grace in the Woodward. With neither in the Gold Cup, Flat Out capitalized and provided an emotional victory for midwest journeyman trainer Charles Dickey.

As impressive as Havre de Grace was in New York however, her nemesis Blind Luck was equally puzzling in California Saturday. Before finishing last by 18 lengths behind winner Zazu in the Ladies Secret Stakes (gr. 1), Blind Luck and never finished worse than second in 21 previous races. According to reports as recent as today, trainer and part owner Jerry Hollendorfer has said they have found no problems but Blind Luck will be heading toward a vacation and will miss the Breeders’ Cup. Blind Luck and Havre de Grace have raced against each other six times in the last two years with Blind Luck winning three and Havre de Grace two. In the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic last year won by Unrivaled Belle, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace finished second and third respectively as 3-year-olds.

As Jay Privman mentioned in his Blind Luck update today in Daily Racing Form, “With Blind Luck out of the Ladies’ Classic, and Havre de Grace headed to the BC Classic against males, the top two females in the country are both now bypassing that race, leaving 3-year-olds such as Zazu, Beldame runner-up Royal Delta, and Cotillion Stakes winner Plum Pretty among the leading contenders.”

Zazu iz zertainly, no Zenyata, but zhe doez have the zame Jerry and Ann Moss teal and pink colorz and runz with a zimilar, clozing running ztyle.

Many consider Acclamation, with his four consecutive grade 1 victories, a Horse of the Year candidate and the same can almost can be said of Cape Blanco. This weekend Acclamation won the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. 2) at Santa Anita on the turf for his fifth straight graded stakes win, while Cape Blanco won his third consecutive grade 1 turf stake by taking the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. 1) at Belmont Saturday. Acclamation may still go to the Breeders’ Cup Classic instead of the Turf Classic, but any chance of a showdown between the two was dashed when Anne Marie O’Brien (wife of trainer Aidan O'Brien) tweeted Monday as @aobballydoyle, “Cape Blanco has been retired to stud following an injury he sustained when winning the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont”.

Uncle Mo fans (led by owner Mike Repole I might add) have certainly been on a roller coaster year in 2011. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Champion Two-Year-Old Male cruised in his first win of the year in an ungraded stake in Florida before expecting to take the Resorts World Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) waltz into the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) as the favorite. But at some point, a liver infliction hit Uncle Mo and he not only finished third in the Wood, but also missed the Derby and much of the year before making a return four months later in the King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga last month. He finished second, but it was only by a nose to Caleb's Posse and as learned later, with front shoe nearly twisted off in the final sixteenth of a mile.

If some thought that the big return may have drained Uncle Mo, few put money in the mutuel machines to back their belief as Uncle Mo went to the gate as odds on favorite in the Kelso at 6-to-10. Off of a very nice win in the Forego Stakes (gr. 1), Jackson Bend figured to threaten Uncle Mo on paper in the Kelso, and actually tried to do so in the race.

As the short Kelso field raced around the big Belmont Park turn, Uncle Mo lead but Jackson Bend and jockey Corey Nakatani had him in their sights. And as Jackson Bend got closer to Uncle Mo, it seemed he got faster with every stride and passing the leader looked near certain. But as Jackson Ben raced up on the inside of Uncle Mo just as they straightened away for home, John Valenzuela on Uncle Mo would not allow Jackson Bend through along the rail. Suddenly, Uncle Mo was an Italian jail and Jackson Bend was Amanda Knox – trapped and no way to get out.

By the time Nakatani emphatically steered Jackson Bend to the outside to pass, Valenzuela gave an acceleration signal of some type to Uncle Mo and he blasted away from Jackson Bend and won the Kelso by three lengths.

So impressive was the win, that despite receiving free entry fees into the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Repole told reporters that Uncle Mo was Classic bound. There he is expected to meet Havre de Grace, Flat Out and Game on Dude.

What was I said about the favorites in the Classic again?

Must See Horse Racing This Weekend

The purpose of today’s blog is to give notice. I want everyone to have plenty of time to clear their calendars this weekend. If it’s too late to clear your calendar and you have something planned for either Saturday or Sunday, (and it is not going to the track or your favorite simulcast center), set the DVR to record. If you don’t know how to set the DVR , you have four days to figure it. If you don’t have a DVR, you have four days to get one.

Because it is going to be a very good weekend of thoroughbred horse racing.

Saratoga on the East coast and Del Mar in the West, both feature their marquee races. Saturday, Saratoga hosts the mid-summer Derby in the grade 1 Travers Stakes for 3-year-olds at 1-1/4 miles on the main track. Sunday, Del Mar presents the 21st running of the $1,000,000 Pacific Classic, also at 10 furlongs on the main track but open to older horses.

The Saturday card at Saratoga also includes the grade 1 Foxwoods King’s Bishop Stakes, which looks to see the return of last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male and one-time Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo. The seven furlong King’s Bishop Stakes should be no easy walz for Uncle Mo, however with Jersey Shore Stakes (gr. 2) winner Flashpoint a confirmed foe.

Another one-time Kentucky Derby hopeful after winning the grade 2 Hutcheson Stakes at Gulfstream Park in February, Flashpoint was fourth in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) and 14th in the Preakness (gr. 1) in his only two races around two turns. Winning the six furlong Jersey Shore makes him undefeated in sprint races the subject of much positive talk since trainer Wesley Ward confirmed Flashpoint for the King’s Bishop from his Aqueduct base 12 days ago.

As recent as last week, trainer Bob Baffert was considering the King’s Bishop for his one-time Derby hopeful, The Factor. Instead, Baffert has said he will run The Factor in the $300,000 Pat O’Brien Stakes (gr. 1) at Del Mar Sunday. The seven furlong Pat O’Brien will be The Factor’s first start since undergoing throat surgery last Spring and his first start against older horses. Baffert has won the O’Brien a record four times including the last two with Brujo last year and Zensational the year before.

Still the spotlight will be on the $1,000,000 Travers Stakes Saturday. First run in 1864, the Travers is the last chance for these top 3-year-old colts and geldings to make an impression against their age group before graduating to face older horses in the Fall. Even a impressive effort in the Travers is generally accompanied by some level of success against older horses on the resumes of most sophomore champions.

Stay Thirsty has the home course advantage in the Travers after winning the grade 2 Jim Dandy at Saratoga in his last start. Jim Dandy runner-up Moonshine Mill is also headed to the Travers as is Preakness winner Shackleford, Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) winner Ruler on Ice and Resorts Casino Haskell Invitational winner Coil (photo).

The Pacific Classic has two of the first three finishers from last month’s Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park in winner Game on Dude and third-place finisher Twirling Candy. The 1-1/4-mile Pacific Classic will also help clarify who might represent the West coast in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in November but more importantly, may also have historical implications.

Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has not announced if his champion filly Blind Luck will take on older males in the Pacific Classic, but has the race under consideration. With the lack of any consistent standout horses, colts or geldings this year, Blind Luck could make significant strides toward becoming the third consecutive female Horse of the Year with a grade 1 win over males in the Classic. There has never been three consecutive female Horse of the Year winners and no filly or mare has ever won the Pacific Classic.

There will be much more to come in the final days leading up to these major races as the horses train, trainers decide and entry boxes open and close. After this weekend, a 3-year-old colt may emerge a likely champion and more will be known about older horses on the West coast. The sprint division will clarify with the Pat O’Brien in southern California and the King’s Bishop in New York and we neglected to metion the grade 1 Ballerina at the Spa or grade 2 Del Mar Handicap.

We just want do not want you to miss it.

History May Help Find A Kentucky Derby Winner

The group of 3-year-old colts contesting this year’s Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) is a puzzling one indeed and will present a tall task to those who will try to handicap them and find a winner. Dialed In and Archarcharch are the only two starters with more than one graded stakes victory this year. Dialed In won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) in February and the Florida Derby in (gr. 1) April 3 – both at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. Archarcharch won Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) in February and the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) April 16.

Derby contenders Watch Me Go paid $89.40 in winning the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2); Twice the Appeal paid $53.20 to win the Sunland Derby (gr. 3) and Midnight Interlude returned $29.80 to his supporters in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Archarcharch paid $31.00 in the Southwest and $52.40 to win the Arkansas Derby.

The search for that extra bit of information that may be the breakthrough tidbit of handicapping insight is a difficult one indeed. If you believe history repeats itself, then perhaps a look back at where other Kentucky Derby winners came from will be of some aid.

Among all of the Kentucky Derby prep races, the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. 1) at Keeneland has produced the most winners of the Run for the Roses with 23. However, since Polytrack was installed on the main track at Keeneland in 2006, only Street Sense in 2007 had run in the Blue Grass,(finishing second to Dominican), before going on to win the Derby. Of the 23 horses that came out of the Blue Grass to win the Derby, only 11 were winners of the Blue Grass as well. The last to win both races was Strike the Gold in 1991.

The Blue Grass stats speak well for three potential starters in the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, May 7, including Blue Grass winner Brilliant Speed, runner-up Twinspired and Santiva, who as the 2-1 favorite finished ninth. Twinspired is hoping to follow in the footsteps of seven Blue Grass place finishers that would go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Don’t fret too much for Santiva either. Derby winners Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder Gulch (1995) were both unplaced in the Blue Grass before they hit the Churchill Downs winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.

The Florida Derby has produced the second-most Kentucky Derby winners with 21, including two of the last four and three during the oughts decade. Barabaro (photo) won the Florida-Kentucky Derby double in 2006 and Big Brown achieved the same in 2008. Nine years ago, Monarchos won both the Florida and Kentucky Derbies in 2001 but sqeezed in a second behind Congaree in the Wood Memorial between the two wins. A dozen of the 21 Kentucky Derby winners who had raced in the Florida Derby won both races including Thunder Gulch in 1995. Like Monarchos, after Florida, Thunder Gulch raced again before going to Churchill Downs – finishing fourth in the Blue Grass.

This year, Dialed In won the Florida Derby in a close finish over long shot Shackleford. Both are probable starters in the Kentucky Derby along with Soldat, who finished fifth in the Florida Derby as the 3-2 favorite.

New York’s main prep race has also produced its share of Kentucky Derby winners with 20 of them coming out of the Wood Memorial. The last two Derby winners to come out of the Aqueduct prep race were Funny Cide in 2003 and Monarchos. Like Monarchos, Funny Cide also finished second in the Wood Memorial, but that was the final prep race for the New York-bred gelding. The highly regarded Empire Make defeated Funny Cide on his way to becoming the favorite in Kentucky, but Funny Cide turned the tables in Kentucky, winning by 1-1/4 lengths ahead of Empire Maker in second.

The last six years, however, the road to the Kentucky Derby has been a rough one for winners of the Wood Memorial. Bellamy Road won the 2005 Wood by 14-1/2 lengths and was headed to favoritism in Kentucky before he was withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby due to injury. I Want Revenge (2009) and Eskendereya (2010) followed eerily similar paths after their Wood wins, also scratched due to injuries in the days before being the Kentucky Derby favorites.

Toby’s Corner, winner of the Wood Memorial this year, will not have to worry about that curse as he will not be the favorite in Kentucky. Uncle Mo, third in the Wood this year as the 1-10 favorite, is hoping to follow in the footsteps of the great Secretariat who got the show spot in the 1973 Wood before going on to Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and fame beyond.

Next on the list of prep races producing the most Kentucky Derby winners are the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) with 15 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) with 12. The San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) is the only other prep race to produce double digit Kentucky Derby winners with 11.

These races from the past logically have little to do with the 2006 Kentucky Derby and prep races thereof. But in attempting to find a winner among the Kentucky Derby cast of 2011, we need all the help we can get.

Baffling Kentucky Derby Group Could Produce Some High Odds

As the Spring season of prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands comes to a close (it officially ends with the Derby Trial (gr. 3) at Churchill Downs, Saturday, before Apr. 30) it has been no secret that this group of 3-year-old thoroughbreds have been difficult to decipher and will be equally, if not more challenging to handicap on the first Saturday in May.

Dialed In will likely be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby this year and the win price may be even higher than some expect. Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form currently has Dialed In as the favorite at 4-1 odds, just ahead of Uncle Mo at 6-1, Nehro at 8-1 and Toby’s Corner and Archarcharch at 10-1. There is also plenty of chat on Twitter, Facebook and other horse racing blogs and columns about the possibility that Dialed In may even go as high as 5-1.

I see no reason why the favorite this year can’t be as high as 6-1. The field is certainly befuddling enough with only Toby’s Corner and Dialed In among the probably Kentucky Derby starters with more than one victory in a graded prep race this year. Even those two were not the favorites in their respective last starts. Dialed In was the second choice at 2.90-1 behind favored Soldat at 1.5-1 in his Florida Derby victory and Toby’s Corner was the 8.70-1 second choice behind 1-10 Uncle Mo while winning the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1).

The 4-1 mark also seems to be the natural over-under point for the Kentucky Derbies run since the field wagers were eliminated in 2001. Prior to that, wagering on the Run for the Roses was limited to 14 betting interests because of the technological limitations of that time. In the ten Kentucky Derbies since, the favorite has been below 4-1 five times and the above 4-1 five times.

Last year, Lookin at Lucky was the highest price favorite during that time at 6.30-1. His rough trips in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) at Oaklawn and the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) combined with his number one post position in Kentucky, of course, contributed to the high price. But also remember that undefeated Barbaro was just a little more popular as the favorite in the 2006 Kentucky Derby at 6.10-1. 2002 Derby favorite Came Home was also 6-1 so having a Derby favorite with odds that high may not be such an anomaly - especially with as many as 20 betting interest in modern Kentucky Derbies.

The most popular horse in the last ten runnings of the Kentucky Derby was Point Given at 1.8-1 in 2001. With slightly less betting appeal were Big Brown in 2008 at 2.40-1; Empire Maker in 2003 at 2.50-1; and Bellamy Road in 2005 at 2.60-1. Empire Maker and Point Given were also in the only two Kentucky Derbies during that span with less than 18 wagering interests. There were 16 betting interests in 2003 and 17 in 2001.

Give credit where it is due to those four however. Point Given had romped through southern California’s San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Bellamy Road came into the Derby off of a 14-1/2 length win the Wood Memorial while Empire Maker had won both the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. Big Brown overcame a bad post position in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) breaking from the 12 gate, but still won easily by five lengths.

Uncle Mo was certainly on his way to that kind of popularity this year before his disappointing third-place finish in the Wood. He stumbled at the start and grabbed a front hoof in that race, but trainer Todd Pletcher said neither was an excuse. Two days later, it is determined that Uncle Mo had a gastrointestinal infection but again, there is no way of knowing if that affected his race in the Wood.

Horses like Archarcharch, Nehro, Toby's Corner, Mucho Macho Man and frankly, quite a few others also have a chance to take some unpredicted late action. Soldat certainly has the credentials to regain some respect in the weeks leading up to the Derby, just as prep race upset winners Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed and Pants on Fire have the opportunity to build on their races.

Regardless of the many excuses and reasons that have seemed to plague this group headed for the Kentucky Derby, it is almost certain that the post time favorite is going to be at a healthy price. Placing 4-1 odds on Dialed In seems perfectly reasonable to me, as it does many others opinionating throughout the social media circles and horse racing journals and papers.

But with the uncertainty that seems to follow these 3-year-olds, it would also not be too surprising to see the favorite as high as 6-1.

Louisiana Derby May Have The Fire and Machismo For Kentucky

Upsets in nearly all of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) prep races this Spring will without doubt make this one of the most difficult crops to decipher on the first Saturday in May.

We are all left wondering if Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) winner Toby’s Corner is a one hit wonder.

Is Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) upset winner Midnight Interlude so much on the improve that he can win the most prestigious race in North American?

What about Uncle Mo? (photo) He was looked upon as unbeatable before his loss in the Wood Memorial.

Don’t forget The Factor. Before his dismal performance in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1), Churchill Downs handicapper Mike Battaglia made the Bob Baffert trainee the favorite to win the Run for the Roses.

Anybody remember Soldat? As pretty as he looked winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) in February, he looked just as ugly running fifth in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) won by Dialed In. And there was that allowance race in January that he won by more than 10 lengths. What happened to that?

So Dialed In is your favorite? Care to explain his schedule. He won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) in January then we didn’t hear from him in February. When trainer Nick Zito does start him, Dialed In is running against older horses in an optional claiming race. Then almost another 30 days go by and Dialed In comes bouncing down the Gulfstream Park stretch to win the Florida Derby. You remember all of those Kentucky Derby winners that have taken the Fountain of Youth-Optional Claiming-Florida Derby path to Kentucky... don’t you?

Look at the graded stakes earning list and you’ll see Comma to the Top at number three – right behind Archarcharch. Really? We’ve been listening to the connections of Comma to the Top tell us the Kentucky Derby is not an option since his fourth-place finish in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) in March. Trainer Peter Miller said then, he had concerns about the colts ability to win at 1-1/4 miles. Comma to the Top then runs second by a head behind Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby and plans suddenly might change.

Archarcharch won the Arkansas Derby at 25-1 odds. He has the Cinderella story with long time midwest training stalwart Jinks Fires legging up jockey Jon Court with the same heartland credentials. The son of Calumet stallion Arch, is also one of four horses to win two Kentucky Derby prep races this year joining Dialed In, Toby’s Corner and The Factor. Archarcharch also won the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn to go along with his Arkansas Derby tally. So does he go from Arkansas long shot to Kentucky contender in one race? Or is it two out of the last three races after running third in the Rebel behind The Factor?

Just more than two weeks from the Kentucky Derby and it seems we must find the horse with the fewest strikes instead of the horse with the most accomplishments.

Is such a race the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2)?

Pants on Fire was a surprise but logical 6-1 winner of the Louisiana Derby defeating favored Mucho Macho Man. This may be an improving colt and wouldn’t it be nice to see jockey Rosie Napravnik become the first female jockey to adorn the blanket of roses in the Churchill winner's circle?

Louisiana Derby runner-up Nehro is trained by Steve Asmussen of Rachel Alexandra and Curlin fame; and third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man lost a shoe in the Fair Grounds showcase.

That’s very shallow handicapping admittedly. But the other contenders in this year’s Derby, don’t seem to pass that simple litmus test like the Louisiana Derby contenders.

Everybody likes to talk about the depth of the Florida Derby this year – and justifiably so. Fountain of Youth winner Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) winner Stay Thirsty were among that group. But look behind the top three finishers in the Louisiana Derby and Elite Alex, Machen and Wilkinson – all promising Derby contenders in their own right – rounding out the top five finishers.

So much can and will change in the next two weeks before the Kentucky Derby. Contenders will likely scratch and wise-guy horses will begin to appear from the darkness and fog of morning works at Churchill Downs. There will be speculations, calculations and reservations between now and that famous moment when the field of 20 breaks from the gate at Churchill Downs.

It seems now, however, that one needs look no further than New Orleans to find the Kentucky Derby contender with the least voodoo.

Still A Ways To Go On Road To Derby

Now that the majority of the prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands have been run, each full of surprises and disappointments, it’s time to start putting the puzzle pieces together. As Axel Rose once sang in Sweet Child O’ Mine: “Where do we go now?”

There is still the Coolmore Lexigton Stakes (gr. 3) this Saturday at Keeneland, but the $200,000 purse and $120,000 winner’s check will only help El Camino Real (gr. 3) winner Silver Medallion qualify for the Derby by adding to his $184,334 in graded earnings. According to Keeneland, the other probables are Beachcombing, Casper’s Touch, Derby Kitten and Prime Cut. Hurricane Lake and Uncle Sam are also possible.

Should Silver Medallion win the Lexington, (all other things remaining the same), Santiva would fall out of the Kentucky Derby top 20 with his $242,397. Others on the outside of the Derby looking in are Watch Me Go ($235,500), Shackleford ($212,000) and Twinspired ($197,500). All of these horses of course, were pushed down a notch earlier this week when Coolmore Stud announced that Criterium Internation (F.-1) and Airlie Stud Ganullule Stakes (Ire-3) winner was headed for the Kentucky Derby from Europe.

Last year, it took $218,750 for Make Music for Me to get the chance to enter the Kentucky Derby. Last minutes changes due to injury or an alteration of plans can also wreak havoc on the top 20 graded stakes earning 3-year-olds. In 2009, multiple late scratches allowed Nowhere to Hide to enter the Run for the Roses with only $55,500.

Technically, 2011 has already had several defections, the most recent being Astrology, currently ranked 17th on the list with $281,893. Trainer Steve Asmussen said he will instead be pointed to the Jerome Handicap at Aqueduct this Saturday. That pulled Jaycito up to the 19th spot with his $250,000 and Santiva into the last remaining spot in the top 20.

The additions and subtractions to the field may go right up to the morning of the Kentucky Derby. Two years ago, morning line favorite I Want Revenge was scratched after trainer Jeff Mullins found a hot spot on the colt’s left front ankle. Unfortunately, when a horse scratches that late, no horse can be pulled of the also elibible list. Also that year, Florida Derby winner Quality Road was scratched just days before the Derby due to problems in a front hoof.

This time last year, Eskenderya was coming off of a 18-1/2 length romp in the Wood Memorial and a similar devastation of rivals in the Fountain of Youth (gr. 2) in February. So dominant was Eskendereya that people began to think there was hope for the next Triple Crown winner. But a week later, trainer Todd Pletcher walked into his shed row only to find swelling between the left front ankle and knee. Because of his potential as a sire, Eskendereya was retired to stud in Kentucky.

This year, Pletcher has Uncle Mo, considered the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby before he finished a dismal third in the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) last week at Aqueduct. Following the race, it was discovered that Uncle Mo had grabbed a quarter during the running of the Wood. Then a gastrointestinal infection was found a few days later. Pletcher said neither would effect Uncle's Mo training but it can be assumed that Pletcher is doing everything to secure his barn from black cats, turks, gremlins and all other bad luck creatures mythical or real.

Last year at this time Backtalk and Make Music for Me were ranked 22nd and 23rd respectively on the graded earnings list. Both started in the Kentucky Derby and give hope to the connections behind Watch Me Go, Shackleford and Twinspired.

Even as most of the graded stakes monies have been distributed and the major races have been run, the road to the Kentucky is far from it's May 7 destination.

Masters and Road to Kentucky Derby Have Similarities This Year

While watching The Master golf tournament Sunday, I began to notice some similarities and parallels between golf’s major event at Augusta National Golf Club and this year’s road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1). Like the last three grade 1 prep races for the Run for the Roses, (Florida Derby, New York Casino Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby), the last nine holes of The Masters had eight different names on the lead. There are no female members of the Augusta National Golf Club, just as there are no female thoroughbreds with Kentucky Derby dreams.


Looking at the races leading up to the Derby in a more general sense, there was a clear cut favorite coming into the weekend. Uncle Mo was undefeated, atop nearly every Kentucky Derby watch list and the 2010 undisputed champion of his division. Uncle Mo had quickly taken control of his previous races by racing immediately to the lead at the start, maintaining that lead with confidence, then pulling away from the field down the stretch.

Like Uncle Mo, Rory McIlroy is young and obviously very talented. At the end of the first round of the Masters Thursday, the brilliant 21-year-old from Northern Ireland went to the clubhouse with a score of seven under par and the early lead. Friday and Saturday were much the same for McIlroy as Sunday, he took a four-shot lead into the the final round at Augusta at 12 shots under par.

McIlroy bogeyed the first hole Sunday, missing a testy five foot put for par.

Uncle Mo’s Wood Memorial did not start well either, as he literally stumbled out of the starting gate. Before finding his stride.

McIlroy never really found his stride Sunday. On the par 5 second hole, McIlroy puts his drive in a fairway bunker then his second shot catches the lip of the bunker leaving an extremely long approach to a front pin position. McIlroy saves par but things are not going well as Carl Schwartzel eagles number 4 and McIlroy’s lead has vanished.

At some point during the early running of the Wood Memorial, perhaps when he stumbled, Uncle Mo grabs a portion of a front hoof with a back foot while running. The injury is minor and trainer Todd Pletcher said the injury was not an excuse for the poor performance. It couldn't have helped either.

McIlroy lost the lead in The Masters when he triple bogeys the tenth hole. He hit a tree on that hole approaching the green.

Unlike McIlroy, Uncle Mo looked like a winner for most of the running of the Wood Memorial. Although Uncle Mo didn’t hit a tree just before he gave up the lead to Author’s Tale inside the final furlong, it looked like he might have. Turning for home, jockey John Velazquez gave Uncle Mo the signal to start running and the colt responded. But then suddenly, it appeared as if Uncle Mo was finished as Author’s Tale quickly ran by Uncle Mo before eventual winner Toby’s Corner as well, even more rapidly.

Again, both Uncle Mo and Rory McIlroy are young and talented. McIlroy’s trade as a golfer will surely last years longer than Uncle Mo’s career as a race horse, but the odds are that they will both be heard from again.

There other parallels between The Masters final day and some other three-year-old thoroughbreds heading for Churchill Downs. Florida Derby winner Dialed In – who is perhaps now the pre-race favorite for the Kentucky Derby - likes to stay out of trouble by laying back in the pack before making a late run at the early leaders for his wins.

Masters champion Carl Schwartzel didn’t stay out of trouble all day, but stayed close enough to finish with a late run of four straight birdies on the final four holes of the Masters to win going away.

Adam Scott and Jason Day finished The Master two shots back of Schwartzel on the final leaderboard. Bo Van Pelt made a run with two eagles on the back nine but could manage no better than eighth place at eight under par. While these young men are obviously not new to the PGA tour, they did represent a wave of young names new to the average golf fan.

So too can be said of Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, Toby’s Corner and and Florida Derby winner Shackleford. Like Tiger Woods, Geoff Olgivy and Angel Cobrerra, don’t expect to say good bye easily to the more recognized Kentucky Derby contenders like The Factor, Comma to the Top, and Mucho Macho Man.

But like The Masters final leaderboard, the road to the Kentucky Derby has some new travelers.

Uncle Mo And The Wood Memorial Curse

This Saturday, it is expected that Uncle Mo (photo below left) will walk into the Aqueduct Race Track starting gate in Queens, New York as the heavy post time favorite in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1). Given that, and his undefeated record and two-year-old championship, it is also expected that he will win the Wood and move into Churchill Downs as the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) on May 7.

In order for the son of Indian Charlie to go on to historic Kentucky Derby accolades, he will have to overcome circumstances that have plagued so many Wood Memorial winners who have either been victimized by injury before the Kentucky Derby, or unable to fulfill their expectations on the first Saturday in May.

Few decades have been as difficult on Wood Memorial winners than that of the oughts in the new century. If nothing else, Uncle Mo owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher can be grateful of a new decade. Although that ten year span seems to have been the most difficult on Wood winners, the Kentucky trouble for New York winners goes many years before that.

The most recent decade before the 2010s, began with trainer Bob Baffert winning his first Wood Memorial with Congaree over Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner Monarchos. While Congaree would be third choice in the Kentucky Derby at just more than 7-1 odds behind favorite Point Given (also trained by Baffert) and Dollar Bill, he came to Kentucky amid plenty of optimism off of his Wood victory.

After stalking the early leaders in the Kentucky Derby that year, Congaree raced six-wide around the far turn of the Kentucky Derby and took the lead at the top of the stretch. However, the late charging Monarchos took advantage of Congaree's record setting Derby first mile and passed him with less than a sixteenth of a mile to go, drawing off to win by more than four lengths. Invisible Ink caught Congaree at the wire for second while the Wood winner had to settle for third.

Two years later, Empire Maker and trainer Bobby Frankel would become the next Wood winning disappointments. Empire Maker had also won the Florida Derby before winning the Wood, so by the time the the first Saturday in May rolled around, the royally-bred son of 1990 Kentucky Derby winner and champion Unbridled was a solid favorite at 5-2 odds at Churchill Downs.

Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Baily was able to negotiate almost a perfect trip for Empire Maker in the Kentucky Derby as he rallied from eighth to third to second at the top of the stretch. The two would take on a little New York-bred gelding they had defeated in the Wood, but Funny Cide would turn the Wood exacta around in Kentucky by holding off runner-up Empire Maker by a length and three-quarters.

Another two-year gap and Bellamy Road is winning an allowance race at Gulfstream Park by nearly 16 lengths in his sophomore year debut. Owned by George Steinbrenner’s Kinsman Farm, Bellamy Road then won the Wood Memorial by 17-1/2 lengths and equaled the track record in doing so. The colt would go to Kentucky as a solid 3-1 favorite over Arkansas Derby (gr. 2) winner Afleet Alex, but could not manage a rally and finish seventh in a Kentucky Derby won by 50-1 long shot Giacomo.

The last two Wood Memorial winners were perhaps the most frustrating – not because they were unable to live up to expectations on the Churchill Downs race track, but because they were victimized by injuries. What makes both their stories so extra difficult was that both lost their Kentucky Derby dreams in the final days leading up to the big race.

I Want Revenge had won the 2009 Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) by 8-1/2 lengths after moving to the natural dirt tracks of New York from the synthetics of California. On the West Coast, I Want Revenge had chased home Pioneerof the Nile in both the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. 3) in their 3-year-old debuts at Santa Anita. But once exposed to racing on natural dirt, I Want Revenge seemed to improve greatly.

There was no question about I Want Revenge and his fondness for natural soil after winnning the Gotham Stakes in New York by 8-1/2 lengths. Then in the Wood, he and jockey Joe Talamo overcame a terrible break to race into contention around the far turn. At the top of the stretch, I Want Revenge looked ready to pounce on the leaders before the window slammed shut on the wall of horses in front of them. After steadying I Want Revenge to almost a gallop, Talamo steered the big colt to the outside for what looked like a futile attempt at winning the Wood. Then I Want Revenge seem to personify his name and accelerated to win by a length and a half as track announcer Tom Durkin exclaimed, “a remarkable victory by I Want Revenge!”

Everything went well for I Want Revenge leading up to the Kentucky Derby. His works were fast and trainer Jeff Mullins was happy. Then, the morning of the Kentucky Derby, swelling and heat was discovered in the left front ankle of I Want Revenge. Mullins scratched his promising colt just hours before the race and another Wood Memorial star had bitten the Kentucky dust during the decade.

A year later, Eskendereya (photo right) would win the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park by more than eight lengths before going to New York for the Wood Memorial. Also trained by Todd Pletcher, Eskendereya had little trouble in New York, winning the Wood by nearly 10 lengths in a runaway.

Again a Wood Memorial winner was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby in the weeks leading up to the Run for the Roses. But on April 25, just days before the race, the injury monster again hit the Wood winner with swelling in the left ankle. This time it was the ankle belonging to Eskendereya and trainer Todd Pletcher was forced to withdraw I Want Revenge from Kentucky Derby contention.

Whether a curse can be established after only ten years is left to the judgment of an individual. After all, Fusaichi Pegasus won both the Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby in 2000. Pleasant Colony (1981), Seattle Slew (’77), Bold Forbes (’76) and Foolish Pleasure (’75) also won in Kentucky and New York.

This list of Wood Memorial winners who lost as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby includes Captain Bodgit (’97), Unbridled’s Song (’96), Easy Goer (’89), Private Terms (’88), Bold Ruler (’57), Nashua (’55) and Native Dancer (’53) going back 60 years.

Certainly races that occurred in 1996, 1989 and 1957 have little or no effect on the 2011 Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby, regardless of the success of Uncle Mo Saturday. But then again, there is no reason to believe that the Bambino has a monopoly on New York sports curses either.

The Elephant's Name Is Charlie

As the undefeated champion and winner of last year’s Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1), Uncle Mo tops nearly everybody’s list of Kentucky Derby contenders. In fact, he was the 3-1 favorite (over the field at 7-2) when the second of three Kentucky Derby Future Wagers closed Sunday. After the Todd-Pletcher-trained Uncle Mo won the $100,000 Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park in South Florida Saturday in his 2011 debut, there was little to prove otherwise.

As mapped out by Pletcher and owner Mike Ropole after the Breeders’ Cup win last Fall, Uncle Mo is now headed for the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. 1) at Aqueduct in New York April 9. The Wood will be his final stop before going to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby May 7 and seems this plan has few road blocks. He has $1.26 million in graded stakes earning to lead all Derby contenders, so money is of little concern. If he disappoints and runs second, third or worse in the Wood, he still qualifies for the Derby and would probably still run as long as he is healthy. Depending on the performance, he may still go off as the favorite in the Derby and may perhaps even win the Run for the Roses.

But there is a large elephant in the Pletcher shed row that everybody seem to be ignoring. The question is the Derby distance of 1-1/4 miles. The classic distance. Ten furlongs. And there lies the chink in the otherwise shiny armor of Uncle Mo. Can he get the ten furlongs.

Since it is a distance not covered by any other contender in this Derby, the concern reduces. However, Indian Charlie is the sire of Uncle Mo, and the concern again rises. And that is the name of the 10,000-pound elephant.

That is not intended to implicate that Indian Charlie has been a failure at stud. In fact he has been very successful siring four Eclipse Award champions in five years. This year, Indian Charlie has both Uncle Mo, and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. 3) winner Anthony’s Cross in the race for a Kentucky Derby slot. Indian Charlie also stands for a $70,000 fee which defines his success during the tough economics facing the breeding industry in recent years.

The concern is that Indian Charlie has had a difficult time producing horses that like to run a route of ground. The lone exception is 2006 Champion Older Mare Fleet Indian (photo). She won sever grade 1 races around two turns including both the Personal Ensign Stakes (gr. 1) and Delaware Handicap (gr. 1) at ten furlongs.

Indian Blessing was the 2-Year-Old Champion filly in 2007, then came back to be named Champion Female Sprinter the next year. Last year, Conveyance turned heads in winning the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn Park on his way to Kentucky. But the Bob Baffert trainee went directly to the front of last year’s Kentucky Derby, led the race for 6 furlongs before fading to 15th. Another Indian Charlie 3-year-old last year was My Pal Charlie, second in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2). He did not start in the Kentucky Derby but won the grade 2 Super Derby at 1-1/8 in the Fall.

Uncle Mo won’t get much help from his dam, Playa Maya, a winner on the track who’s best races came while placing in minor stakes at Ellis Park in Kentucky and Delta Downs in Louisiana. Should Playa Maya pass on any distance, it would be because of the influence of her sire Arch.

While Arch’s stallion career has not matched that of Indian Charlie, he is the sire of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) winner, Blame. A quick scan through Arch’s current leading runners, and nearly all are competing around two turns. Arch has Archarcharch, winner of the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn Feb. 21, on this year’s Derby trail, so he his connections have interest as both a sire and a dam’s sire of two Derby hopefuls.

No doubt horses can run through their pedigrees. And there has been no indication that Uncle Mo will have any problems keeping his undefeated streak alive as the race distances increase. But before we christen Uncle Mo the Kentucky Derby winner in March, let’s at least acknowledge the elephant.