The Brock Talk Kentucky Derby Picks

Its time to step up to the plate and swing away at the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Here’s my picks.

#13 – Mucho Macho Man: Has been among the most consistent and competitive this year while technically racing at a young age. While all thoroughbreds birthday is officially January 1, Mucho Macho Man wasn’t born until June. Which means he may be just primed to blossom. He finished fourth behind Dialed In in January, then won the Risen Star (gr. 3) in February before losing a shoe in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) and finishing third behind Pants On Fire and Nehro. Six-week lay-off is a concern but he has the speed and post position to negotiate away from most traffic and into contention at the top of the stretch.
#8 – Dialed In: There is much to like about the Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner who also won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) over Mucho Macho Man in January. Seemed to have an undisclosed hiccup in his training in February, but was impressive in winning the Fla. Derby on a track favoring speed. Will have to negotiate traffic around the far turn with his late kick, but a relatively clean trip and he will be very dangerous. Three of last four Kentucky Derby winners have trained at Palm Meadows during the winter where trainer Nick Zito had trained Dialed In until last week.
#19 – Nehro: Don’t worry about the post position because this Steve Asmussen trainee is a closer as well. Second in the Louisiana Derby after traffic problems then a hard charging second, just missing to Archarcharch in Arkansas Derby (gr. 1). Sire Mineshaft won two grade 1 races at this distance, so the 1-1/4 miles should not be a problem. Like other closer Dialed In, traffic may be the problem late while trying to pass tired horses and catch others doing much better on the front. Another son of Mineshaft, so he should have plenty in the tank down the long Churchill Downs stretch.
#1 – Archarcharch: Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) winner took it on the chin drawing the #1 post, but then got a little lucky with the closest speed horses (Decisive Moment) breaking from post five. So he should have time and room to pull back and let the wave hit the rail in front of him in first 1/2 mile. With luck, he’ll also be at the back of the pack early, but a more forward than Dialed In and Nehro. Also won the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn, but was still let go at 25-1 in the Ark. Derby. Should be a good price Saturday in Kentucky as well.

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History May Help Find A Kentucky Derby Winner

The group of 3-year-old colts contesting this year’s Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) is a puzzling one indeed and will present a tall task to those who will try to handicap them and find a winner. Dialed In and Archarcharch are the only two starters with more than one graded stakes victory this year. Dialed In won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) in February and the Florida Derby in (gr. 1) April 3 – both at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. Archarcharch won Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) in February and the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) April 16.

Derby contenders Watch Me Go paid $89.40 in winning the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2); Twice the Appeal paid $53.20 to win the Sunland Derby (gr. 3) and Midnight Interlude returned $29.80 to his supporters in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Archarcharch paid $31.00 in the Southwest and $52.40 to win the Arkansas Derby.

The search for that extra bit of information that may be the breakthrough tidbit of handicapping insight is a difficult one indeed. If you believe history repeats itself, then perhaps a look back at where other Kentucky Derby winners came from will be of some aid.

Among all of the Kentucky Derby prep races, the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. 1) at Keeneland has produced the most winners of the Run for the Roses with 23. However, since Polytrack was installed on the main track at Keeneland in 2006, only Street Sense in 2007 had run in the Blue Grass,(finishing second to Dominican), before going on to win the Derby. Of the 23 horses that came out of the Blue Grass to win the Derby, only 11 were winners of the Blue Grass as well. The last to win both races was Strike the Gold in 1991.

The Blue Grass stats speak well for three potential starters in the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, May 7, including Blue Grass winner Brilliant Speed, runner-up Twinspired and Santiva, who as the 2-1 favorite finished ninth. Twinspired is hoping to follow in the footsteps of seven Blue Grass place finishers that would go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Don’t fret too much for Santiva either. Derby winners Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder Gulch (1995) were both unplaced in the Blue Grass before they hit the Churchill Downs winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.

The Florida Derby has produced the second-most Kentucky Derby winners with 21, including two of the last four and three during the oughts decade. Barabaro (photo) won the Florida-Kentucky Derby double in 2006 and Big Brown achieved the same in 2008. Nine years ago, Monarchos won both the Florida and Kentucky Derbies in 2001 but sqeezed in a second behind Congaree in the Wood Memorial between the two wins. A dozen of the 21 Kentucky Derby winners who had raced in the Florida Derby won both races including Thunder Gulch in 1995. Like Monarchos, after Florida, Thunder Gulch raced again before going to Churchill Downs – finishing fourth in the Blue Grass.

This year, Dialed In won the Florida Derby in a close finish over long shot Shackleford. Both are probable starters in the Kentucky Derby along with Soldat, who finished fifth in the Florida Derby as the 3-2 favorite.

New York’s main prep race has also produced its share of Kentucky Derby winners with 20 of them coming out of the Wood Memorial. The last two Derby winners to come out of the Aqueduct prep race were Funny Cide in 2003 and Monarchos. Like Monarchos, Funny Cide also finished second in the Wood Memorial, but that was the final prep race for the New York-bred gelding. The highly regarded Empire Make defeated Funny Cide on his way to becoming the favorite in Kentucky, but Funny Cide turned the tables in Kentucky, winning by 1-1/4 lengths ahead of Empire Maker in second.

The last six years, however, the road to the Kentucky Derby has been a rough one for winners of the Wood Memorial. Bellamy Road won the 2005 Wood by 14-1/2 lengths and was headed to favoritism in Kentucky before he was withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby due to injury. I Want Revenge (2009) and Eskendereya (2010) followed eerily similar paths after their Wood wins, also scratched due to injuries in the days before being the Kentucky Derby favorites.

Toby’s Corner, winner of the Wood Memorial this year, will not have to worry about that curse as he will not be the favorite in Kentucky. Uncle Mo, third in the Wood this year as the 1-10 favorite, is hoping to follow in the footsteps of the great Secretariat who got the show spot in the 1973 Wood before going on to Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and fame beyond.

Next on the list of prep races producing the most Kentucky Derby winners are the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) with 15 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) with 12. The San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) is the only other prep race to produce double digit Kentucky Derby winners with 11.

These races from the past logically have little to do with the 2006 Kentucky Derby and prep races thereof. But in attempting to find a winner among the Kentucky Derby cast of 2011, we need all the help we can get.

Baffling Kentucky Derby Group Could Produce Some High Odds

As the Spring season of prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands comes to a close (it officially ends with the Derby Trial (gr. 3) at Churchill Downs, Saturday, before Apr. 30) it has been no secret that this group of 3-year-old thoroughbreds have been difficult to decipher and will be equally, if not more challenging to handicap on the first Saturday in May.

Dialed In will likely be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby this year and the win price may be even higher than some expect. Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form currently has Dialed In as the favorite at 4-1 odds, just ahead of Uncle Mo at 6-1, Nehro at 8-1 and Toby’s Corner and Archarcharch at 10-1. There is also plenty of chat on Twitter, Facebook and other horse racing blogs and columns about the possibility that Dialed In may even go as high as 5-1.

I see no reason why the favorite this year can’t be as high as 6-1. The field is certainly befuddling enough with only Toby’s Corner and Dialed In among the probably Kentucky Derby starters with more than one victory in a graded prep race this year. Even those two were not the favorites in their respective last starts. Dialed In was the second choice at 2.90-1 behind favored Soldat at 1.5-1 in his Florida Derby victory and Toby’s Corner was the 8.70-1 second choice behind 1-10 Uncle Mo while winning the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1).

The 4-1 mark also seems to be the natural over-under point for the Kentucky Derbies run since the field wagers were eliminated in 2001. Prior to that, wagering on the Run for the Roses was limited to 14 betting interests because of the technological limitations of that time. In the ten Kentucky Derbies since, the favorite has been below 4-1 five times and the above 4-1 five times.

Last year, Lookin at Lucky was the highest price favorite during that time at 6.30-1. His rough trips in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) at Oaklawn and the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) combined with his number one post position in Kentucky, of course, contributed to the high price. But also remember that undefeated Barbaro was just a little more popular as the favorite in the 2006 Kentucky Derby at 6.10-1. 2002 Derby favorite Came Home was also 6-1 so having a Derby favorite with odds that high may not be such an anomaly - especially with as many as 20 betting interest in modern Kentucky Derbies.

The most popular horse in the last ten runnings of the Kentucky Derby was Point Given at 1.8-1 in 2001. With slightly less betting appeal were Big Brown in 2008 at 2.40-1; Empire Maker in 2003 at 2.50-1; and Bellamy Road in 2005 at 2.60-1. Empire Maker and Point Given were also in the only two Kentucky Derbies during that span with less than 18 wagering interests. There were 16 betting interests in 2003 and 17 in 2001.

Give credit where it is due to those four however. Point Given had romped through southern California’s San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Bellamy Road came into the Derby off of a 14-1/2 length win the Wood Memorial while Empire Maker had won both the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. Big Brown overcame a bad post position in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) breaking from the 12 gate, but still won easily by five lengths.

Uncle Mo was certainly on his way to that kind of popularity this year before his disappointing third-place finish in the Wood. He stumbled at the start and grabbed a front hoof in that race, but trainer Todd Pletcher said neither was an excuse. Two days later, it is determined that Uncle Mo had a gastrointestinal infection but again, there is no way of knowing if that affected his race in the Wood.

Horses like Archarcharch, Nehro, Toby's Corner, Mucho Macho Man and frankly, quite a few others also have a chance to take some unpredicted late action. Soldat certainly has the credentials to regain some respect in the weeks leading up to the Derby, just as prep race upset winners Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed and Pants on Fire have the opportunity to build on their races.

Regardless of the many excuses and reasons that have seemed to plague this group headed for the Kentucky Derby, it is almost certain that the post time favorite is going to be at a healthy price. Placing 4-1 odds on Dialed In seems perfectly reasonable to me, as it does many others opinionating throughout the social media circles and horse racing journals and papers.

But with the uncertainty that seems to follow these 3-year-olds, it would also not be too surprising to see the favorite as high as 6-1.

The Elephant's Name Is Charlie

As the undefeated champion and winner of last year’s Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1), Uncle Mo tops nearly everybody’s list of Kentucky Derby contenders. In fact, he was the 3-1 favorite (over the field at 7-2) when the second of three Kentucky Derby Future Wagers closed Sunday. After the Todd-Pletcher-trained Uncle Mo won the $100,000 Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park in South Florida Saturday in his 2011 debut, there was little to prove otherwise.

As mapped out by Pletcher and owner Mike Ropole after the Breeders’ Cup win last Fall, Uncle Mo is now headed for the Wood Memorial Stakes (gr. 1) at Aqueduct in New York April 9. The Wood will be his final stop before going to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby May 7 and seems this plan has few road blocks. He has $1.26 million in graded stakes earning to lead all Derby contenders, so money is of little concern. If he disappoints and runs second, third or worse in the Wood, he still qualifies for the Derby and would probably still run as long as he is healthy. Depending on the performance, he may still go off as the favorite in the Derby and may perhaps even win the Run for the Roses.

But there is a large elephant in the Pletcher shed row that everybody seem to be ignoring. The question is the Derby distance of 1-1/4 miles. The classic distance. Ten furlongs. And there lies the chink in the otherwise shiny armor of Uncle Mo. Can he get the ten furlongs.

Since it is a distance not covered by any other contender in this Derby, the concern reduces. However, Indian Charlie is the sire of Uncle Mo, and the concern again rises. And that is the name of the 10,000-pound elephant.

That is not intended to implicate that Indian Charlie has been a failure at stud. In fact he has been very successful siring four Eclipse Award champions in five years. This year, Indian Charlie has both Uncle Mo, and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. 3) winner Anthony’s Cross in the race for a Kentucky Derby slot. Indian Charlie also stands for a $70,000 fee which defines his success during the tough economics facing the breeding industry in recent years.

The concern is that Indian Charlie has had a difficult time producing horses that like to run a route of ground. The lone exception is 2006 Champion Older Mare Fleet Indian (photo). She won sever grade 1 races around two turns including both the Personal Ensign Stakes (gr. 1) and Delaware Handicap (gr. 1) at ten furlongs.

Indian Blessing was the 2-Year-Old Champion filly in 2007, then came back to be named Champion Female Sprinter the next year. Last year, Conveyance turned heads in winning the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn Park on his way to Kentucky. But the Bob Baffert trainee went directly to the front of last year’s Kentucky Derby, led the race for 6 furlongs before fading to 15th. Another Indian Charlie 3-year-old last year was My Pal Charlie, second in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2). He did not start in the Kentucky Derby but won the grade 2 Super Derby at 1-1/8 in the Fall.

Uncle Mo won’t get much help from his dam, Playa Maya, a winner on the track who’s best races came while placing in minor stakes at Ellis Park in Kentucky and Delta Downs in Louisiana. Should Playa Maya pass on any distance, it would be because of the influence of her sire Arch.

While Arch’s stallion career has not matched that of Indian Charlie, he is the sire of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) winner, Blame. A quick scan through Arch’s current leading runners, and nearly all are competing around two turns. Arch has Archarcharch, winner of the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn Feb. 21, on this year’s Derby trail, so he his connections have interest as both a sire and a dam’s sire of two Derby hopefuls.

No doubt horses can run through their pedigrees. And there has been no indication that Uncle Mo will have any problems keeping his undefeated streak alive as the race distances increase. But before we christen Uncle Mo the Kentucky Derby winner in March, let’s at least acknowledge the elephant.

Swing For The Fences When Betting Kentucky Derby Future Wagers

Looking at Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) lists from the Associated Press to the Horse Racing Nation website, it’s appears there is somewhat of a consensus on the top contenders. Nearly every list has Uncle Mo, Dialed In, Soldat, and To Honor and Serve in their top five. Jaycito and Mucho Macho Man are getting their recognition as are Brethren and Santiva.

It would not be a great handicapping feat to pick any of these horses to win the Run for the Roses – even in early March – and most future book odds reflect that. According to the Kentucky Derby future odds from the Wynn Las Vegas Race & Sports Book as published in the Louisville Courier-Journal, Uncle Mo is currently 7-2, followed by Dialed In at 8-1, To Honor and Serve at 10-1, Soldat at 15-1, Mucho Macho Man and Jaycito at 18-1, Brethren at 20-1 and Santiva at 22-1. The realistic odds of Uncle Mo (or any other horse for that matter)even starting in the Derby are may not be too far away from 7-2 at this point. On must certainly factor in the inherent risk any 3-year-old Thoroughbred colt faces in the last two months leading up to the first Saturday in May. Consider the fact that last year’s Derby favorite, Lookin at Lucky, went to the gate at odds of more than 6-1. This time last year, Lookin at Lucky was also on the same level of promise as Uncle Mo currently. So 7-2 on Uncle now isn’t practical.

Almost the same analogy can be applied to the current second and third choices in the future book this year. Super Saver went to the post at 8-1 in the Derby last year and Dialed In is currently 8-1 in the future book at Wynn Las Vegas Race & Sports Book. Sidney’s Candy was the third betting choice in Kentucky last year at 9.5-1. If To Honor and Serve was to be third choice in the Derby this year, it is feasible he will also be in the 10-1 range. Why bet those same odds now?

But if one likes to bet the Kentucky Derby future books, there are horses that have some promise with equally intriguing odds.

So far the Rodney Dangerfield of the sophomore class of 2011 is Archarcharch, winner of the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The last seven runnings of the Arkansas Derby have given us Papa Clem, Curlin, Lawyer Ron, Afleet Alex and Smarty Jones. Currently Archarcharch sits atop that potential Arkansas contingent and he comes from the rising star stable of Bret Calhoun. At 85-1 on the future book, he may present some value.

Another future book bet that may capture your attention is Comma To The Top, listed at 50-1 on some future books. Among the leading Derby contenders after ending his 2-year-old season with five straight wins including the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park Dec. 18, the son of Bwana Charlie flopped in the El Camino Real Derby (gr. 3) Feb. 12, finishing fourth behind winner Silver Medalion. He has since trained well in the morning for trainer Peter Miller, working :58-4/5 at Hollywood Park (2nd fastest among 34) Feb. 28. So if you think the El Camino Real was an aberration, Comma to the Top has the odds to bet the future book.

A little further down the line of potential returns is Sway Away at 30-1. He came from last to second behind The Factor in the seven furlong San Vicente Stakes on a track that was favoring speed. Also second to J.P.’s Gusto in the grade 2 Best Pal Stakes last year, Sway Away may make his next start in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) at Oaklawn Park Mar. 19, the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) Mar. 26 or the Sunland Derby (gr. 3 Mar. 27.

Whether it be Sway Away at 30-1 or Archarcharch at 85-1, if wagering on the Kentucky Derby future book, one must certainly look for attractive prices. Don’t be lured in by marginal odds at 25-1 or less. There is a good chance those odds will be very similar on a given horse on the first Saturday in May. Remember too that Old Man Time and his associates - injury and racing luck – are standing smack in the path between your selection and the Kentucky Derby two months away.

There is nothing more deflating than holding a future book ticket on a Kentucky Derby starter on Derby day, looking at the tote-board and seeing current odds looking eerily similar to those on your future book stub. Just as there is nothing more exhilarating than cashing a future book bet on a Derby winner at 85-1 as he crosses the finish line at 10-1 or thereabouts.
So if you’re compelled to bet a future book – swing for the fences my friend.