Goodwood, Jockey Club Gold Cup Winners Fighting Ugly Stats Going Into Classic

Although they are a million dollars in preparation, the Jockey Cup Gold Cup (gr. 1) and Goodwood Stakes (gr. 1) have done far worse than one might expect in seeing their winners repeat in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) . In fact, of the 49 winners of both races during the Breeders' Cup years beginning in 1984 (five horses have won either the Goodwood or Gold Cup twice), only six have come back to win the Classic - three apiece.

What effect that statistic has on 2011 Goodwood winner Game On Dude or this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup champion Flat Out, is a topic for debate. Much like UFOs and ghosts are debatable in the opinion of some. But there have been some other more obvious reasons for these numbers.

The inaugural Breeders’ Cup Classic was won by 30-to-1 long shot Wild Again who had made his start previous to the Classic at Bay Meadows - finishing third in a one mile allowance race on grass. Finishing second through disqualification was, Slew o’ Gold, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. That year, Lord at War won the Goodwood, and for the first of what would become 13 times; the Goodwood winner would not start in the Classic.

Trained by Hall of Famer Charlie Whittingham, Lord at War won his second Goodwood in 1995 and again the Argentine-bred did not go to the Breeders’ Cup. In 1996 Super Diamond became the third consecutive Goodwood winner to skip the Breeders’ Cup.

In 1997 Whittingham won his third Goodwood in four years with Ferdinand and the horse who had given the bald eagle his first Kentucky Derby victory the year before, gave Whittingham his first Breeders’ Cup Classic in his next start.

There would be another 13 years before Tiznow would win both the Goodwood and the Classic in 2000, but only three more years passed before Pleasantly Perfect would be the last one to win both races.

Although the Jockey Club Gold Cup got off to a fast start with Slew o’ Gold, it would be 11 years before Cigar could win both Gold Cup and Classic. During those years, Gold Cup winners Easy Goer (’89) and Pleasant Tap (’92) got close, but like Slew o’ Gold before them finished second in the Classic. Easy Goer lost to his nemesis Sunday Silence while A.P. Indy defeated Pleasant Tap.

After not starting in the Breeders’ Cup after his first win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1996, Skip Away came back the following year to win his second consecutive Gold Cup in New York. This time owner-trainer Sonny Hines sent Skip Away to the Breeders’ Cup and he put in one of the better performance in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, winning by six lengths at Hollywood Park.

Gold Cup winners performed miserably for the next ten years as Bernardini was the only one to make the top three in the Classic, finishing second to Invasor in 2006. The next best performances by Gold Cup winners during that time were Albert the Great in 2000 and Evening Attire in 2002, both of which finished fourth.

Like Skip Away, Curlin was a two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup winner but a one-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Unlike Skip Away ten years before, Curlin pulled off the Gold Cup/Breeders’ Cup double in 2007, winning the Classic over a quagmire track at a rainy Monmouth Park, but was unable to repeat a year later. Curlin had little trouble winning his second Gold Cup as the odds-on favorite at 2-to-5, but was dull in the Breeders’ Cup over Santa Anita’s artificial main track and finished fourth.

The 6-for-54 statistic may be surprising at first glance, but there are many explanations. In the early years of the Breeders’ Cup, the domestic and international nomination of foals was less organized and marketed. Therefore it would have been very expensive for the owners of horses like Lord at War and Crème Fraiche to run in the Breeders’ Cup. In many instances, horses would have to win their respective Breeders’ Cup race in order to come out of the race with a profit. That was a chance many owners were just not willing to take.

There are those winners of Goodwood and Gold Cup that obviously bounced going into the Breeders’ Cup. In 1984 when the Breeders’ Cup first ran, it can easily be argued that the Gold Cup was more prestigious than the Breeders’ Cup. Owners and trainers treated it that way and pointed their horses accordingly. If they came out of the Gold Cup and went to the Classic, fine. But the Gold Cup was the target.

And then there are the more obvious like Aptitude, an easy winner of the 2001 Jockey Club Gold Cup achieving a historically high 123 Beyer Figure at the same time. After the race, trainer Bobby Frankel was immediately concerned about Aptitude bouncing in the Classic, and he was correct. Aptitude finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic weeks later.

There is also the fact the Jockey Club Gold Cup was run at 1-1/2 miles until 1999, so Easy Goer was the last Gold Cup winner to try to win the Classic backing up to the 1-1/4 distance. Waquoit, who finished third behind Alysheba in the darkness of an unlit Churchill Downs in 1987; Vandlandingham (’85) and Slew o’Gold all had that challenge as well.

At 1-1/8 miles, the Goodwood set up much better for Classic bound horses, but since the race was first run as the Goodwood Racecourse Stakes as part of an exchange program with Santa Anita and the track in Sussex, England. Its spot on the calendar combined with the distance, the Goodwood morphed into a grade 1 stake by 1997 and its impact on the Classic quickly followed. In 1998 Goodwood winner Silver Charm appeared within reach of victory in the stretch before he drifted out badly and finished in the middle in the track and in second behind Awesome Again.

A year later, Bud Royale took the Goodwood and he too finished second the Classic to 1999 winner Cat Thief. Tiznow used the Goodwood to prepare for both of his Classics wins in 2000-’01, but only won the first Goodwood . In the 2001 Goodwood, Tiznow finished third behind Freedom Crest and Skimming.

Santa Anita also had a cushion track on their main course from 2007-2010 and during that time, Tiago would be the only Goodwood winner to run in the Classic, finishing fifth behind Curlin in that rainy ’07 Classic at Monmouth Park.

This year, Flat Out and Game On Dude will also likely face a considerable onslaught from horses out of other races. Horse of the Year candidate Havre de Grace will once again face the boys in the Classic having already won the Woodward Stakes over her male counterparts at Saratoga this summer. She had a leisurely win the Beldame (gr. 1) Saturday at Belmont Park. Kelso (gr. 2) winner Uncle Mo will also continue his comeback from a mid-season liver ailment that kept him out of the Triple Crown by further graduating into the Classic. Whitney Handicap (gr. 1) winner Tizway, who skipped the Gold Cup because of a fever the week before, is also back on track and training well for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

No doubt many handicappers at the Breeders’ Cup will circle Flat Out and Game On Dude on their programs and bet accordingly. Both after all, won their respective last starts nicely. But if history repeats, or even has a significant influence, the 6-for-54 stat will only change in the right hand column.

Super Slow Derby Might Still Have Stars

Super Derby 32 was very slow. Miraculously, it was not as slow as last year's race when Apart overcame Manhattan like traffic to result in the slow time of 1:52.31. This year Prayer for Relief led the Super Derby from gate to wire, but at just over a galloping pace.

Prayer for Relief has now consecutively won the Iowa Derby (gr. III), West Virginia Derby (gr. II) and the Super Derby as part of a four-race win streak. A stalker in previous races, jockey Rafael Bejarano took Prayer for Relief directly to the lead at Louisiana Downs Saturday before slowing the pace of the 1-1/8 race to a crawl with a first quarter in :50:31, the first six furlongs in 1:15.49 and a mile in 1:40.08. The final time of 1:52.29 was not even as slow as last year’s Super Derby, but if Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (left) had been in either race, he probably would have been on the early lead. If you're not an NFL fan, Mr. Suh is listed at 307 lbs.

The pace seemed to severely handicap the two closers, Awesome Bet and Populist Politics, who finished second and third respectively. Peter Pan (gr. II) winner Alternation never seemed to find his best stride and finished fourth.

This Super Derby may or may not be able to produce winners at the grade 1 level in a normal year. However, there are no dominant runners in the older horse ranks or the now graduating sophomore class. Trainer Bob Baffert (photo above right) could, of course, keep Prayer for Relief with 3-year-olds one more time should he travel to Indiana for their grade 2 Derby Oct. 1. The Indiana Derby does offer another $500,000 that may be ripe for the pickin’ and it would be the same path taken by last year’s champion 3-year-old Lookin at Lucky, also under Baffert’s guidence. Prayer for Relief may not be another Lookin at Lucky, but he would likely be the favorite in Indiana. Another win there and the son of Jump Start strides into Churchill Downs with a significantly large heart.

A trip to New York for the Jockey Club Gold Cup is unlikely for Prayer for Relief. If Baffert wanted to challenge older horses with Prayer for Relief before a possible Breeders’ Cup Classic, he would likely stay in Southern California for the Oct. 1 Goodwood (gr. 1), a race run at his base at Santa Anita. But there he would face Pacific Classic (gr. 1) winner Acclamation and Santa Anita Handicap (gr. 1) winner and stable mate Game On Dude.

Steve Asmussen trains Awesome Bet so geography is no challenge running out of the expansive stable that reaches as far north as Canada’s Woodbine and as far south as the family operation in Laredo, Texas. He could also be headed to the Indiana Derby next, but it is often difficult to predict an Asmussen move.

Trainer Tom Amoss is based in Kentucky, so a trip across the river for the Indiana Derby may make sense for Populist Politics. Regardless of their next destination, both Awesome Bet and Populist Politics will be hoping for a more honest pace to target.

Fourth-place finisher Alternation still looks like he could take similar paths as the top three with little hesitation. Trainer Donnie Von Hemel is based at Remington Park where he could keep Alternation for the $400,000 Oklahoma Derby Oct. 16. But that 1-1/8 race is not graded and one has to think Alternation has the potential for improvement and at least stay in graded company.

The slow time will insure that the 2011 Super Derby not look that good on paper, but this group also belongs to a pretty mediocre group of grade I colts and horses running in this year’s major races around the country this year. There are remaining derbies in Indiana and Oklahoma, but at some point, I expect at least one of these Super Derby graduates to be heard from on a higher level.

Five Million Reasons To Watch Goodwood and Gold Cup

Two of the most lucrative races in producing Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) winners are Saturday with one on each coast. While the Woodward Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga has produced the most Breeders’ Cup Classic winners with six, the Goodwood in Southern California has produced five winners and the Jockey Club Gold Cup in New York has produced four Breeders’ Cup Classic champions.

The statistics speak well for Quality Road, winner of the 2010 Woodward at Saratoga in early September, but will skip the Jockey Club Gold Cup and train up to the $5,000,000 Classic on Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs. But the numbers also point to good things for both the big races this weekend, the Goodwood and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

The Goodwood Stakes has traditionally been run at Santa Anita during the Oak Tree Meeting, but the non-profit Oak Tree Association moved the meeting to Hollywood Park because of disputes with Magna, which owns Santa Anita. Ironically, the most recent winner of the Goodwood and Breeders’ Cup Classic double was Pleasantly Perfect in 2003, before the installation of the track’s artificial surface. The other two Goodwood/Classic winners, Tiznow in 2001 and Alphabet Soup in 1996, produced Classic winners at tracks outside of Southern California. Tiznow won the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Belmont Park and Alphabet Soup won the 1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Woodbine. The first Goodwood winner to hit the Classic winner was Ferdinand in 1987 who stayed at Santa Anita to win a thrilling Breeders’ Cup Classic over Alysheba that year.

The three most recent Goodwood/Classic winners all paid handsomely to their Breeders’ Cup supporters with even Tiznow now returning $15.80 in 2001 when taking his second consecutive Classic. Pleasantly Perfect and Alphabet Soup generated even healthier returns for their supports in the Breeders’ Cup returning $30.40 and $41.70 respectively. Ferdinand remains the second-lowest priced winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic returning $4.00, behind only Cigar (photo above) in 1995 who returned $3.60 for a $2 win ticket.

Curlin is among three to pull of the Jockey Club Gold Cup/Breeders’ Cup Classic double, having done so in 2007. As difficult as it may seem, it is another 14 years further back than Curlin to find Skip Away, who won both races in 1997. Two years earlier Cigar took both races in 1995. Interestingly, while the prestigious victories gave Curlin and Cigar the Horse of the Year honors, it was a year later before Cigar Skip Away was awarded his golden Eclipse Awards.

Like Cigar, Skip Away and Curlin are among the lowest priced winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic returning $5.60 and $10.80 respectively.

Regardless of the investment opportunities however, it seems like that racing this weekend will have an influence over the distribution of the $5,000,000 Classic purse November 6.