Goodwood, Jockey Club Gold Cup Winners Fighting Ugly Stats Going Into Classic

Although they are a million dollars in preparation, the Jockey Cup Gold Cup (gr. 1) and Goodwood Stakes (gr. 1) have done far worse than one might expect in seeing their winners repeat in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) . In fact, of the 49 winners of both races during the Breeders' Cup years beginning in 1984 (five horses have won either the Goodwood or Gold Cup twice), only six have come back to win the Classic - three apiece.

What effect that statistic has on 2011 Goodwood winner Game On Dude or this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup champion Flat Out, is a topic for debate. Much like UFOs and ghosts are debatable in the opinion of some. But there have been some other more obvious reasons for these numbers.

The inaugural Breeders’ Cup Classic was won by 30-to-1 long shot Wild Again who had made his start previous to the Classic at Bay Meadows - finishing third in a one mile allowance race on grass. Finishing second through disqualification was, Slew o’ Gold, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. That year, Lord at War won the Goodwood, and for the first of what would become 13 times; the Goodwood winner would not start in the Classic.

Trained by Hall of Famer Charlie Whittingham, Lord at War won his second Goodwood in 1995 and again the Argentine-bred did not go to the Breeders’ Cup. In 1996 Super Diamond became the third consecutive Goodwood winner to skip the Breeders’ Cup.

In 1997 Whittingham won his third Goodwood in four years with Ferdinand and the horse who had given the bald eagle his first Kentucky Derby victory the year before, gave Whittingham his first Breeders’ Cup Classic in his next start.

There would be another 13 years before Tiznow would win both the Goodwood and the Classic in 2000, but only three more years passed before Pleasantly Perfect would be the last one to win both races.

Although the Jockey Club Gold Cup got off to a fast start with Slew o’ Gold, it would be 11 years before Cigar could win both Gold Cup and Classic. During those years, Gold Cup winners Easy Goer (’89) and Pleasant Tap (’92) got close, but like Slew o’ Gold before them finished second in the Classic. Easy Goer lost to his nemesis Sunday Silence while A.P. Indy defeated Pleasant Tap.

After not starting in the Breeders’ Cup after his first win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1996, Skip Away came back the following year to win his second consecutive Gold Cup in New York. This time owner-trainer Sonny Hines sent Skip Away to the Breeders’ Cup and he put in one of the better performance in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, winning by six lengths at Hollywood Park.

Gold Cup winners performed miserably for the next ten years as Bernardini was the only one to make the top three in the Classic, finishing second to Invasor in 2006. The next best performances by Gold Cup winners during that time were Albert the Great in 2000 and Evening Attire in 2002, both of which finished fourth.

Like Skip Away, Curlin was a two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup winner but a one-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Unlike Skip Away ten years before, Curlin pulled off the Gold Cup/Breeders’ Cup double in 2007, winning the Classic over a quagmire track at a rainy Monmouth Park, but was unable to repeat a year later. Curlin had little trouble winning his second Gold Cup as the odds-on favorite at 2-to-5, but was dull in the Breeders’ Cup over Santa Anita’s artificial main track and finished fourth.

The 6-for-54 statistic may be surprising at first glance, but there are many explanations. In the early years of the Breeders’ Cup, the domestic and international nomination of foals was less organized and marketed. Therefore it would have been very expensive for the owners of horses like Lord at War and Crème Fraiche to run in the Breeders’ Cup. In many instances, horses would have to win their respective Breeders’ Cup race in order to come out of the race with a profit. That was a chance many owners were just not willing to take.

There are those winners of Goodwood and Gold Cup that obviously bounced going into the Breeders’ Cup. In 1984 when the Breeders’ Cup first ran, it can easily be argued that the Gold Cup was more prestigious than the Breeders’ Cup. Owners and trainers treated it that way and pointed their horses accordingly. If they came out of the Gold Cup and went to the Classic, fine. But the Gold Cup was the target.

And then there are the more obvious like Aptitude, an easy winner of the 2001 Jockey Club Gold Cup achieving a historically high 123 Beyer Figure at the same time. After the race, trainer Bobby Frankel was immediately concerned about Aptitude bouncing in the Classic, and he was correct. Aptitude finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic weeks later.

There is also the fact the Jockey Club Gold Cup was run at 1-1/2 miles until 1999, so Easy Goer was the last Gold Cup winner to try to win the Classic backing up to the 1-1/4 distance. Waquoit, who finished third behind Alysheba in the darkness of an unlit Churchill Downs in 1987; Vandlandingham (’85) and Slew o’Gold all had that challenge as well.

At 1-1/8 miles, the Goodwood set up much better for Classic bound horses, but since the race was first run as the Goodwood Racecourse Stakes as part of an exchange program with Santa Anita and the track in Sussex, England. Its spot on the calendar combined with the distance, the Goodwood morphed into a grade 1 stake by 1997 and its impact on the Classic quickly followed. In 1998 Goodwood winner Silver Charm appeared within reach of victory in the stretch before he drifted out badly and finished in the middle in the track and in second behind Awesome Again.

A year later, Bud Royale took the Goodwood and he too finished second the Classic to 1999 winner Cat Thief. Tiznow used the Goodwood to prepare for both of his Classics wins in 2000-’01, but only won the first Goodwood . In the 2001 Goodwood, Tiznow finished third behind Freedom Crest and Skimming.

Santa Anita also had a cushion track on their main course from 2007-2010 and during that time, Tiago would be the only Goodwood winner to run in the Classic, finishing fifth behind Curlin in that rainy ’07 Classic at Monmouth Park.

This year, Flat Out and Game On Dude will also likely face a considerable onslaught from horses out of other races. Horse of the Year candidate Havre de Grace will once again face the boys in the Classic having already won the Woodward Stakes over her male counterparts at Saratoga this summer. She had a leisurely win the Beldame (gr. 1) Saturday at Belmont Park. Kelso (gr. 2) winner Uncle Mo will also continue his comeback from a mid-season liver ailment that kept him out of the Triple Crown by further graduating into the Classic. Whitney Handicap (gr. 1) winner Tizway, who skipped the Gold Cup because of a fever the week before, is also back on track and training well for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

No doubt many handicappers at the Breeders’ Cup will circle Flat Out and Game On Dude on their programs and bet accordingly. Both after all, won their respective last starts nicely. But if history repeats, or even has a significant influence, the 6-for-54 stat will only change in the right hand column.

Breeders' Cup Picture Comes Into Focus

Three impressive winners of grade 1 races Saturday are heading for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic according to their connections, and the trio will likely make up the top three favorites when they go to the post beneath the twin spires of Churchill Downs. One female superstar is among them while another won’t be going to Kentucky to renew the best rivalry in Thoroughbred racing in recent years. A $3 million showdown in the Breeders’ Cup Turf was highly anticipated Sunday evening, but will not materialize as we know now. And then there was that crazy uncle.

That's how the 2011 Breeders’ Cup, to be run Nov. 5,6 at Churchill Downs, is coming into focus.

The three big winners headed for the Classic are Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) winner Flat Out, Goodwood Stakes (gr. 1) winner Game On Dude and the filly who won the Beldame (gr. 1) with ease, Havre de Grace.

Flat Out may have taken the lead away from the absent Tizway in the older horse division with a convincing win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup over 2010 Belmont (gr. 1) winner Drosselmeyer and this year's Travers (gr. 1) winner Stay Thirsty. After winning the grade 2 Suburban at Belmont in July, Flat Out finished the summer running second to Tizway in the Whitney and second to the filly Havre de Grace in the Woodward. With neither in the Gold Cup, Flat Out capitalized and provided an emotional victory for midwest journeyman trainer Charles Dickey.

As impressive as Havre de Grace was in New York however, her nemesis Blind Luck was equally puzzling in California Saturday. Before finishing last by 18 lengths behind winner Zazu in the Ladies Secret Stakes (gr. 1), Blind Luck and never finished worse than second in 21 previous races. According to reports as recent as today, trainer and part owner Jerry Hollendorfer has said they have found no problems but Blind Luck will be heading toward a vacation and will miss the Breeders’ Cup. Blind Luck and Havre de Grace have raced against each other six times in the last two years with Blind Luck winning three and Havre de Grace two. In the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic last year won by Unrivaled Belle, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace finished second and third respectively as 3-year-olds.

As Jay Privman mentioned in his Blind Luck update today in Daily Racing Form, “With Blind Luck out of the Ladies’ Classic, and Havre de Grace headed to the BC Classic against males, the top two females in the country are both now bypassing that race, leaving 3-year-olds such as Zazu, Beldame runner-up Royal Delta, and Cotillion Stakes winner Plum Pretty among the leading contenders.”

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Many consider Acclamation, with his four consecutive grade 1 victories, a Horse of the Year candidate and the same can almost can be said of Cape Blanco. This weekend Acclamation won the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. 2) at Santa Anita on the turf for his fifth straight graded stakes win, while Cape Blanco won his third consecutive grade 1 turf stake by taking the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (gr. 1) at Belmont Saturday. Acclamation may still go to the Breeders’ Cup Classic instead of the Turf Classic, but any chance of a showdown between the two was dashed when Anne Marie O’Brien (wife of trainer Aidan O'Brien) tweeted Monday as @aobballydoyle, “Cape Blanco has been retired to stud following an injury he sustained when winning the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic at Belmont”.

Uncle Mo fans (led by owner Mike Repole I might add) have certainly been on a roller coaster year in 2011. The 2010 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and Champion Two-Year-Old Male cruised in his first win of the year in an ungraded stake in Florida before expecting to take the Resorts World Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) waltz into the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) as the favorite. But at some point, a liver infliction hit Uncle Mo and he not only finished third in the Wood, but also missed the Derby and much of the year before making a return four months later in the King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga last month. He finished second, but it was only by a nose to Caleb's Posse and as learned later, with front shoe nearly twisted off in the final sixteenth of a mile.

If some thought that the big return may have drained Uncle Mo, few put money in the mutuel machines to back their belief as Uncle Mo went to the gate as odds on favorite in the Kelso at 6-to-10. Off of a very nice win in the Forego Stakes (gr. 1), Jackson Bend figured to threaten Uncle Mo on paper in the Kelso, and actually tried to do so in the race.

As the short Kelso field raced around the big Belmont Park turn, Uncle Mo lead but Jackson Bend and jockey Corey Nakatani had him in their sights. And as Jackson Bend got closer to Uncle Mo, it seemed he got faster with every stride and passing the leader looked near certain. But as Jackson Ben raced up on the inside of Uncle Mo just as they straightened away for home, John Valenzuela on Uncle Mo would not allow Jackson Bend through along the rail. Suddenly, Uncle Mo was an Italian jail and Jackson Bend was Amanda Knox – trapped and no way to get out.

By the time Nakatani emphatically steered Jackson Bend to the outside to pass, Valenzuela gave an acceleration signal of some type to Uncle Mo and he blasted away from Jackson Bend and won the Kelso by three lengths.

So impressive was the win, that despite receiving free entry fees into the Breeders’ Cup Mile, Repole told reporters that Uncle Mo was Classic bound. There he is expected to meet Havre de Grace, Flat Out and Game on Dude.

What was I said about the favorites in the Classic again?

Let's Play!

With so many great races this weekend from Santa Anita to New York and Indiana in between, there is so much that can be written. So instead of spinning some epic saga… let’s pick some winners. The National Football League has their Play 60 program to encourage kids to exercise. The weekend horse racing has Play Saturday for adults.

Indiana Derby (gr. 2), Hoosier Park, 3-year-olds, 1-1/16 miles, $500,000
Post Time 6:15 pm EDT Saturday

Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) winner Shackleford stands on the Indiana Derby program page as the 8-to-5 morning line favorite, coupled with stable mate Friends Place as part of the Dale Romans (photo right)-trained entry. This will be the second consecutive year the Preakness winner has come to Anderson, Indiana for the Indiana Derby as Lookin at Lucky won this race last year as part of his championship season. Hoosier Park has also been a frequent stop for Romans, who is the all-time leading stakes winning trainer at the track.

None of those accolades, trends or records will be helping Shackleford Saturday night however, as the Indiana Derby has drawn a qualified cast of eight. What seperates Shackleford from the other seven is the class in which he has competed this year. After finishing second at 68-to-1 in the Florida Derby (gr. 1), Shackled hit the Triple Crown and came out, not only with a win in the Preakness, but as only one of three horses this year to competed in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands, Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

After a short vacation, Shackleford hit the Resorts Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in New Jersey where he was second to a Bob Baffert-trained Coil. Coil was a record 5th Haskell for Baffert, so the runner-up for Shackleford was no disgrace.

But the next race seemed to give an indication that the miles and competition may be taking an effect on the iron horse of the 2011 sophomore class of Thoroughbreds. After leading the Travers Stakes for the first three-quarters of a mile, Shackleford tired badly and finished second to last, more than 22 lengths behind winner Stay Thirsty.

Should that be the case and the Preakness winner has little left in the tank, the obvious choice is Caleb’s Posse, trained by Oklahoma/Texas mainstay Donnie Von Hemel. The homebred son of the $10,000 stallion Posse, has had a constitution testing campaign this year as well. Caleb’s Posse was perhaps the most impressive in his last race when he came from off the pace to sour the comeback of one-time Derby fave Uncle Mo in the King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga in late August.

At one time considered a Kentucky Derby contender after finishing second in the grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park in March, Calleb’s Posse skipped the Triple Crown and has spent the year winning the grade 2 Ohio Derby at Thistledown in June and the grade 2 Amsterdam, also at Saratoga. Although the King’s Bishop and Amsterdam were seven and 6-1/2 furlongs respectively, Calleb’s Posse should have no problem with the Indiana Derby distance of 1-1/16 miles having won the Ohio Derby at the same distance of eight and one-half furlongs.

Among others to watch are 4-to-1 morning line choice Wilburn, a nice winner of the $300,000 Smarty Jones over the same surface in his last race and Populist Politics, a participating third in the super slow Super Derby (gr. 2) in his last race at Louisiana Downs Sept. 10.

Indiana Derby Picks
6 - Caleb’s Posse
4 - Populist Politcs
1 – Shackleford

The Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1), Belmont Park, 3-year-olds and older, 1-1/4 Miles, $750,000
Post Time: 5:46 pm EDT Saturday

Like the Indiana Derby, the Jockey Club Gold Cup has a morning line with solid entry as the favorite with Flat Out and Birdrun coupled as part of the Preston Farms, Inc.-owned entry at 7-to-5. Also like the Indiana Derby, the second choice in Belmont the morning line is just one tick off favoritism, in this case at 8-to-5.

While Birdrun is no slouch, having won the grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont Park in June, it appears Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott may have the Birdstone in the Jockey Club Gold Cup: Stay Thirsty likes to run on or near the lead. Flat Out, also trained by Mott, likes to come from off the pace. No other horse in the field appears likely to test Stay Thirsty on the lead and insure an honest pace. So instead of leaving it others, Moss has the speedy Birdrun in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Although Birdrun may keep Stay Thirsty from stealing the Gold Cup, his presence will not leave Stay Thirsty and jockey Javier Castellano without options. A son of 2006 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Bernadini, Stay Thirsty appears to like the lead, but need it as was the case in his victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) two months ago when he was as far back as fourth in the first half-mile.

Not only is this is the first race for Stay Thirsty against older horses, but he is the only 3-year-old among the seven entrants. It will be a whole new class of characters waiting for Stay Thirsty this time in the saddling paddock before the race.

Flat Out and Birdrun are both 5-year-old horses; A.U. Miner and Rodman are both 6-year-olds. Drosselmeyer and Ice Box, two veterans from the 2010 Triple Crown wars, are the youngsters here at age four. There’s not a gelding in the bunch.

We also know that consistency has been a rarity in both the 3-year-old and older ranks this year. That too works against Stay Thirsty who is coming off two consecutive wins. A.U. Miner is the only other Gold Cup starter to have won his last race having taken the $200,000 Greenwood Cup at Parx Racing near Philadelphia in July.

There is also that $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic elephant on the grandstand apron. Will trainer Todd Pletcher wind the strings tight on Stay Thirsty to win the $750,000 Gold Cup with nearly seven times that much sitting at Churchill Downs Nov. 6 waiting to be claimed?

Flat Out also comes out of a difficult summer also with a win in the grade 2 Suburban at Belmont then firing at both the Whitney Handicap and Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, running second in both to Tizway and the filly Havre de Grace respectively.


That leaves the door open enough for me to think that Rodman will have a big day at Belmont Park Saturday. Second to Tizway in the Metropolitan (gr. 2) at one mile in May and third behind Flat Out in the Suburban, he may have been set for a big race in the Woodward, but traffic trouble in the first turn quickly faded those hopes and he finished seventh. Rodman should improve significantly off that race.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Picks
3- Rodman
4-Stay Thirsty
5-Flat Out

The Vosburgh Invitational (gr. 1), Belmont Park, 3-year-olds and older, 6 furlongs, $350,000
Post Time: 3:57 pm EDT Saturday

I chose to handicap the Indiana Derby and the Jockey Club Gold Cup because of their popularity and probable influence on the richest horse racing in North America, the Breeders’ Cup Classic. With Havre de Grace in the Beldame Invitational (gr. 1) and Uncle Mo in the Kelso Handicap (gr. 2) in the two races preceding the Gold Cup and two obvious singles, find a horse with a price in the Vosburgh and I’ve got a Pick-4 ticket to bet. Havre de Grace is a better single than Uncle Mo in my opininion, so if one would want to spread a little in the Kelso, that might not be a bad idea.

The Vosburgh certainly has a horse to beat in Trappe Shot at 9-to-5 in the morning line, and quite frankly he does look tough having won two of his last three races, all at the Vosburgh distance of six furlongs. Second choice Big Drama (photo left) is also solid as the defending Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion which has easily won his only two races this year. He had a nice eight-month vacation from January to September, but since returning has done nothing but win the minor Whipleton Stakes at Calder in September and put in two very nice morning works. The most recent morning drill was a five furlong bullet and before that worked a four furlong breeze that was the second fastest of 75 that morning at Calder.

In trying to find something that might provide more return, Apriority peaks interest as one who likes to come from off the pace. Although his only two wins this year have come against optional claimers, the son of Grand Slam has shown he can compete at this level after a second in the Carter Handicap and fourth in the Vanderbuilt, both grade 1 races earlier this year in New York. He was also just a nose short of Aikenite from winning the seven furlong Churchill Downs (gr. 2) two starts back.

Giant Ryan will also be difficult to pass up at 12-to-1 coming off of five consecutive victories going back to an optional claiming race at Aqueduct in March. In his last race, he came from just off the pace to win the grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder in Florida. That race was just more than 60 days ago, but he has been training well in the morning coming into this race.

Vosburgh Picks
3 - Apriority
6 - Big Drama
8 - Trappe Shot

Pick 4
Race 7 - 3-5-6-8
Race 8 - 3
Race 9 - 5
Race 10 - 3-4-1

Super Slow Derby Might Still Have Stars

Super Derby 32 was very slow. Miraculously, it was not as slow as last year's race when Apart overcame Manhattan like traffic to result in the slow time of 1:52.31. This year Prayer for Relief led the Super Derby from gate to wire, but at just over a galloping pace.

Prayer for Relief has now consecutively won the Iowa Derby (gr. III), West Virginia Derby (gr. II) and the Super Derby as part of a four-race win streak. A stalker in previous races, jockey Rafael Bejarano took Prayer for Relief directly to the lead at Louisiana Downs Saturday before slowing the pace of the 1-1/8 race to a crawl with a first quarter in :50:31, the first six furlongs in 1:15.49 and a mile in 1:40.08. The final time of 1:52.29 was not even as slow as last year’s Super Derby, but if Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh (left) had been in either race, he probably would have been on the early lead. If you're not an NFL fan, Mr. Suh is listed at 307 lbs.

The pace seemed to severely handicap the two closers, Awesome Bet and Populist Politics, who finished second and third respectively. Peter Pan (gr. II) winner Alternation never seemed to find his best stride and finished fourth.

This Super Derby may or may not be able to produce winners at the grade 1 level in a normal year. However, there are no dominant runners in the older horse ranks or the now graduating sophomore class. Trainer Bob Baffert (photo above right) could, of course, keep Prayer for Relief with 3-year-olds one more time should he travel to Indiana for their grade 2 Derby Oct. 1. The Indiana Derby does offer another $500,000 that may be ripe for the pickin’ and it would be the same path taken by last year’s champion 3-year-old Lookin at Lucky, also under Baffert’s guidence. Prayer for Relief may not be another Lookin at Lucky, but he would likely be the favorite in Indiana. Another win there and the son of Jump Start strides into Churchill Downs with a significantly large heart.

A trip to New York for the Jockey Club Gold Cup is unlikely for Prayer for Relief. If Baffert wanted to challenge older horses with Prayer for Relief before a possible Breeders’ Cup Classic, he would likely stay in Southern California for the Oct. 1 Goodwood (gr. 1), a race run at his base at Santa Anita. But there he would face Pacific Classic (gr. 1) winner Acclamation and Santa Anita Handicap (gr. 1) winner and stable mate Game On Dude.

Steve Asmussen trains Awesome Bet so geography is no challenge running out of the expansive stable that reaches as far north as Canada’s Woodbine and as far south as the family operation in Laredo, Texas. He could also be headed to the Indiana Derby next, but it is often difficult to predict an Asmussen move.

Trainer Tom Amoss is based in Kentucky, so a trip across the river for the Indiana Derby may make sense for Populist Politics. Regardless of their next destination, both Awesome Bet and Populist Politics will be hoping for a more honest pace to target.

Fourth-place finisher Alternation still looks like he could take similar paths as the top three with little hesitation. Trainer Donnie Von Hemel is based at Remington Park where he could keep Alternation for the $400,000 Oklahoma Derby Oct. 16. But that 1-1/8 race is not graded and one has to think Alternation has the potential for improvement and at least stay in graded company.

The slow time will insure that the 2011 Super Derby not look that good on paper, but this group also belongs to a pretty mediocre group of grade I colts and horses running in this year’s major races around the country this year. There are remaining derbies in Indiana and Oklahoma, but at some point, I expect at least one of these Super Derby graduates to be heard from on a higher level.

Havreing Horse of the Year Aspirations

Trainer Larry Jones is quite forthcoming about the motivation behind entering Havre de Grace in Saturday’s grade 1 Woodward Stakes against the boys. “We’re trying to do something to move her closer to a championship,” Jones told the Saratoga media department. “If she does beat the boys, it puts us back in front of the pack [among older fillies and mares] and into the hunt for Horse of the Year. But we have a lot to do before the end of the year.”

That work begins in the $750,000, nine furlong Woodward, a race established in 1954 and won by only one female. “I don’t usually keep up with those kinds of things,” Jones said when asked about the history of fillies versus colts and geldings in the Woodward. “But I do remember what other filly [won the Woodward] though, I was up here [at Saratoga] and watched it,” referring to Rachel Alexandra winning the 2009 Woodward.

To further illustrate how unique it is for a filly or mare to defeat males in a major race in the Summer or Fall, consider that only five fillies or mares have won Saratoga’s other grade 1 route race on dirt, the Whitney Handicap, in the 82-year history of that race. Black Marie and the great daughter of Man o’ War, Bateau, won the first two Whitneys in 1928 and ‘29 respectively while Gallorette won the 1948 version. Two of the great mares of their generation, Lady’s Secret (’86) and Personal Ensign (’88) were also Whitney winners.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I), run since 1919, has been won by only two females; Shuvee won the Gold Cup twice in 1970 and’71; and My Play won in 1924.

Further West, only three fillies have won the prestigious Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. I): Happy Issue (1944), Two Lea (’52) and Princessnesian (’68) and no fillies or mares have won the Pacific Classic (gr. I) at Del Mar nor the Goodwood Stakes (gr. I) at Santa Anita. For all of her greatness, Zenyatta only defeated the males once. That came on the West coast when she became the only filly or mare to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr.I).

Should Havre de Grace make the run for Horse of the Year that Jones and owner Rick Porter are publicly hoping for, the Woodward may be just the first step, but it would at least be instant justification for the title. By no means does that mean a Woodward victory would solidify the Horse of the Year honor, but would very much qualify her for the discussion.

At this point, if Havre de Grace has any hope for Horse of the Year, a Woodward victory would help, but not guarantee. Remember Havre de Grace lost to nemisis Blind Luck by a nose in their last match-up in the Delaware Handicap (gr. I). It may come down to a possible match between the two at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup the first week of November assuming Blind Luck also wins her next race which may be the Lady’s Secret (gr. I) at Santa Anita Oct. 1.

Despite the last loss to Blind Luck, some may still debate that Havre de Grace has a better resume thus far in 2011. In three other starts this year, the daughter of 2005 Horse of the Year St. Liam has won the grade 3 Azeri and grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park; and the Obeah (gr. III) at Delaware Park. Blind Luck started the year with three seconds, including one to Havre de Grace in the Azeri, before winning the grade II La Troienne at Churchill and the grade I Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park before the matchup in Delaware.



When debating Horse of the Year, it is also important not to forget Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, Travers winner Stay Thirsty, Preakness winner Shackleford, not to mention the upcoming winners of the Woodward (assuming Havre de Grace does not win), Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park, Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita and of course, the Breeders’ Cup Classic.


No doubt there are plenty of barriers between Havre de Grace and the Horse of the Year title. The most immediate of which are three colts, two horses and a gelding that will be waiting for Havre de Grace in the Saratoga paddock just prior to the Woodward. Those seven are also in a position to keep the 4-year-old filly from joining the list of legendary females that includes Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta, Personal Ensign, Lady’s Secret and the like by keeping her out of the winner’s circle following the Woodward.

However bold or bragadocious it may be to set a goal on Labor Day weekend for Horse of the Year on Labor Day weekend, the point remains it is realistic.

Will Whitney Winner Lead Too?

From a wagering standpoint, the 2011 Whitney Handicap (gr. I) is Hall of Fame material. Eleven older horses are set to go 1-1/8 miles at Saratoga in the Whitney with the favorite at 4-1 odds in the morning line. The second choice is at 5-1 and three others have been given the third choice odds at 6-1.

Although a long shot winner in the Whitney would push an already confusing division into near boredom, there are plenty of horses who could take a legitimate step to the front of the older horse class with a win Saturday. But as the morning line indicates, this bunch is still very much close together in the race for any year-end honors.

Giant Oak (photo), the second choice in the morning line at 5-1 odds, has most credentials this year among his foes, as the only Whitney starter with a grade 1 win around two turns on a main track this year. But that win came in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park in early February and is quickly becoming a distant memory. Since the Donn win, Giant Oak has been third in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) behind fellow Whitney entrants Mission Impazible and Apart. He then was on the losing end of a five-horse blanket finish in the Alysheba (gr. II) and fifth again behind long shot winner Pool Play in the grade 1 Stephen Foster, both at Churchill Downs.

Flat Out gets the Saratoga handicapper’s favoritism at 4-1 off of a nice win in the grade 2 Suburban at Belmont, after finishing sixth in the Foster and second behind Awesome Gem in the grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap. Trained by Midwest mainstay Charles Dickey, Flat Out is just beginning to earn some name recognition. The now 5-year-old horse had one win against optional claimers last year in one start. Before that, his last win was in the Smarty Jones Stakes in January of ’09 at Oaklawn while trying for the Kentucky Derby.

To characterize this group of Whitney entrants as under accomplished, is vastly unfair however.

The Nick Zito-trained Morning Line won the grade 1 Carter Handicap at seven furlongs in April, but then weakened to finish fifth in the grade 3 Salvator Mile at Monmouth Park. That performance was a bit surprising as distance has never been a challenge to the son of Tiznow. The 4-year-old Morning LIne won the grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby and an allowance race at Saratoga last year, both at nine furlongs.

The 6-year-old Tizway is another late developing son of Tiznow trying for summer fame in the Whitney. Tizway did not break his maiden until late in his 3-year-old year and didn’t win his first stake until June of last year when he won the grade 2 Kelso at Belmont Park. The James Bond trainee looked impressive in his front running victory in the grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont at one mile May 30 over Rodman, also a Whitney entrant.

Distance should be no trouble for Mission Impazible who won the Louisiana Derby and New Orleans Handicap, both grade 2, nine furlong races at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. And in his last start, the 4-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song was just a neck short of Pool Play in the Foster at Chruchill Downs, also at 1-1/8 miles on the main track.

So there is nothing that says the Horse of the Year can’t come out of the Whitney Handicap. The last winner of the golden Eclipse Award to pass this way was Invasor, the Whitney Handicap winner and 2006 Horse of the Year.

Another interesting Whitney happened in 1978 when trainer John Vietch used the Whitney to prepare Alydar for the Travers and yet another race against just inaugurated Triple Crown winner Affirmed. Alydar won the Whitney by 10 lengths, while Affirmed was nearly been upset by Sensative Prince in the Jim Dandy. They met in the Travers, and although Affirmed crossed the wire first, he was disqualified and placed second behind new winner Alydar for interference.

Five-time Horse of the year Kelso (photo) was also fond of the Whitney Handicap, winning the race three times between 1961 and 1965. Ironically, the great gelding’s last Whitney victory in 1965 did not result in his sixth Horse of the Year title. Instead the trophy went to Mocassin, the only 2-year-old filly so honored in North American thoroughbred racing.

There is no Kelso, Alydar or even one as accomplished as Invasor in this 2011 Whitney. But nobody should be scoffing at the credentials Flat Out, Giant Oak and the like either. Quite frankly, asking for the second coming of another Kelso is a bit pretentious anyway. Don’t you think?

This Whitney will tell if any from Saturday’s group can be mentioned in the upcoming divisional championship discussions of the late Summer and Fall of each year. Right now, that’s all horse racing fans can ask. Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are doing their parts in keeping the female Horse of the Year “three-peat” alive while the males at both the 3-year-old and older levels continue to beat each other up round robin style.

There are plenty of bigger races for older horses coming up. Del Mar has the Pacific Classic later this month and Saratoga still has the Woodward on Labor Day weekend. Belmont has the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Santa Anita has the Goodwood in October, all grade 1 prep races for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic to be run at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of November.

It just that it’s getting very close to a time when somebody needs to step out of the pile.

Zenyatta's Road to Perfection Has Many Obstacles, From Ghosts Past and Present

Without doubt, the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) has given thoroughbred racing some legendary races in the previous 26 runnings. Wild Again got it all started in the wild inaugural Classic over Slew o’ Gold and a Bo Jackson-like Gate Dancer in 1984, while three years later Ferdinand carried jockey Bill Shoemaker and trainer Charlie Whittingham from the dawn of their respective careers back to the heights in the then new age of the championship event. Whittingham would return with Sunday Silence in 1989 when he defeated Easy Goer in the rematch of the Triple Crown combatants. Cigar won the memorable Classic at Belmont Park and Tiznow began the millennium with the only Classic repeat, winning in 2000-’01.

Last year Zenyatta wrote herself into the record books by becoming the first distaffer to win the Classic, but just how much more significant will a successful defense of her title will be, should she hit the wire first Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs?

First, it should be noted that her hurdles appear to be a few notches higher in 2010 than last year in the Classic despite the incredible extension of her undefeated winning streak to 19 races. This year Zenyatta will have to leave Southern California and travel more than 2,000 miles from Los Angeles to Louisville and run on a surface on which she has never competed. Zenyatta has twice won impressively on natural dirt, but both victories came in the grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas. Interestingly she won both of those races by an uncharacteristic 4-1/2 lengths, the two longest winning margins of her career. So natural dirt does not appear too much of a challenge. “Appear” being the operative word there.

It is also apparent that the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic field will bring much more accomplished than her foes last year at Santa Anita.

Homefield advantage and much of the wagering support will go to Blame, winner of the grade 1 Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs in June and more recently the grade 1 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga. Quality Road will arrive at Churchill Downs this year as the chiseled 4-year-old veteran winner of three grade 1 victories and not the rebellious slayer of the “big green monster” in last year’s Classic who eventually had to succumb to being scratched before the race after his failed attempt to destroy the starting gate and eat the Santa Anita assistant starters. Japan sends over their best older dirt horse in Espoir City and the sophomore crop is well represented by Preakness Stakes and Izod Haskell Invitational Looking at Lucky. And Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) winner Haynesfield and RSVP’d as well.

Regardless of the repeat angle, a victory in the 2010 Classic would seem to be more impressive than even her thrilling victory last year at Santa Anita over 2009 Champion Older Male Gio Ponti.

The question then begs of the historical significance of a distaffer winning a major grade 1 race over older males over the classic distance of 10 furlongs (1-1/4 miles).

If the Breeders’ Cup Classic is the most prestigious race in North America for older horses, then the Jockey Club Gold Cup is the race that it passed for the honor. Won by some of the greats of game including Man o’ War, Gallant Fox, Whirlaway, Forego, Kelso, Buckpasser, Affirmed, John Henry, Cigar and Curlin, the Jockey Club Gold Cup remains one of the great late season tests in the older horse ranks. Since the race was established in 1919, only seven horses have won the race twice, one of which was the great mare Shuvee, who won in 1970 and 1971. It should be noted that Shuvee won her Gold Cups when the race was run at 2 miles and the 1971 victory was the final race of her career.

On the West Coast, prestige in the older horse ranks begins with the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. 1) run each year in March. Run since 1935, the Santa Anita Handicap was the first $100,000 race in North America and has been won by the likes of Seabiscuit, Round Table, No Double, Ack Ack, John Henry, Affirmed, Alysheba and Tiznow. Jockey Bill Shoemaker won the “Big Cap” 11 times, trainer Charlie Whittingham won it eight times. But no filly or mare has won the Santa Anita Handicap in 76 editions.

The grade 1 Woodward Handicap, run each year since 1954 in New York, has once been won by a female - last year when Rachel Alexandra took the race during her brilliant Horse of the Year campaign.

The grade 1 Hollywood Gold has had three female winners including Happy Tissue in 1944, Two Lea in 1952 and Princessnesian in 1968. But again, that race has been run each year since 1938, so three wins since Walt Disney released the motion picture Snow White is less than a 1-for-20 pace.

The grade 1 Whitney Handicap at Saratoga has been run since 1928 and is perhaps most famous for Onion’s defeat of Secretariat in 1973. But the Whitney also been won by legends such as Discovery (three times from 1934-’36), War Admiral (‘38), Kelso (‘61,’63,’65), Dr. Fager (’68), Alydar (’78) and Easy Goer (’89). But the Whitney has also produced six female winners including the first two winners Black Maria in 1928 and Bateau in 1929. Other distaff winners were Esposa (‘37),Gallorette (‘48), Lady's Secret (‘86), and Personal Ensign (‘88).

So going into the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic it is sure that Zenyatta will have many doubters. There will be many who have never believed because of her penchant to stay in Southern California for most of her career, venturing out only twice to run in Arkansas. There are those that chide the quality of her competition during the streak and that she never traveled east to take on Rachel Alexandra.

But the historical significance of defending her title in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, should dispel many of those uncertainties.

Five Million Reasons To Watch Goodwood and Gold Cup

Two of the most lucrative races in producing Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) winners are Saturday with one on each coast. While the Woodward Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga has produced the most Breeders’ Cup Classic winners with six, the Goodwood in Southern California has produced five winners and the Jockey Club Gold Cup in New York has produced four Breeders’ Cup Classic champions.

The statistics speak well for Quality Road, winner of the 2010 Woodward at Saratoga in early September, but will skip the Jockey Club Gold Cup and train up to the $5,000,000 Classic on Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs. But the numbers also point to good things for both the big races this weekend, the Goodwood and Jockey Club Gold Cup.

The Goodwood Stakes has traditionally been run at Santa Anita during the Oak Tree Meeting, but the non-profit Oak Tree Association moved the meeting to Hollywood Park because of disputes with Magna, which owns Santa Anita. Ironically, the most recent winner of the Goodwood and Breeders’ Cup Classic double was Pleasantly Perfect in 2003, before the installation of the track’s artificial surface. The other two Goodwood/Classic winners, Tiznow in 2001 and Alphabet Soup in 1996, produced Classic winners at tracks outside of Southern California. Tiznow won the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Belmont Park and Alphabet Soup won the 1996 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Woodbine. The first Goodwood winner to hit the Classic winner was Ferdinand in 1987 who stayed at Santa Anita to win a thrilling Breeders’ Cup Classic over Alysheba that year.

The three most recent Goodwood/Classic winners all paid handsomely to their Breeders’ Cup supporters with even Tiznow now returning $15.80 in 2001 when taking his second consecutive Classic. Pleasantly Perfect and Alphabet Soup generated even healthier returns for their supports in the Breeders’ Cup returning $30.40 and $41.70 respectively. Ferdinand remains the second-lowest priced winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic returning $4.00, behind only Cigar (photo above) in 1995 who returned $3.60 for a $2 win ticket.

Curlin is among three to pull of the Jockey Club Gold Cup/Breeders’ Cup Classic double, having done so in 2007. As difficult as it may seem, it is another 14 years further back than Curlin to find Skip Away, who won both races in 1997. Two years earlier Cigar took both races in 1995. Interestingly, while the prestigious victories gave Curlin and Cigar the Horse of the Year honors, it was a year later before Cigar Skip Away was awarded his golden Eclipse Awards.

Like Cigar, Skip Away and Curlin are among the lowest priced winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic returning $5.60 and $10.80 respectively.

Regardless of the investment opportunities however, it seems like that racing this weekend will have an influence over the distribution of the $5,000,000 Classic purse November 6.

Thoughts, Comments and Questions About Super Saturday and Such.

(Photo: Sunday Silence and Easy Goer battled in a classic Preakness)

As they like to say down here in Texas, Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Summer Bird has all the fixins of a Champion 3-Year-Old Male. He is now the first 3-year-old since Easy Goer in 1989 to win the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1), Travers (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) in the same year. Although Easy Goer also had victories in the Swale, Gotham (gr. 2), Wood Memorial (gr. 1), Whitney (gr. 1) and Woodward (gr. 1) to his credit that year, Sunday Silence was named Champion 3-Year-Old Male and Horse of The Year. Sunday Silence won the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1), and Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. 1) as well as the Preakness (gr. 1), Super Derby (gr. 1), Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) and San Felipe (gr. 2) for five grade 1 wins in 1989 compared to six for Easy Goer but still got the title with the Classic the deciding race.

Perhaps the most impressive winner of the weekend was Sea the Stars, who won his sixth consecutive group 1 race by taking the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, the marquee horse race of France. Jockey Michael Kinane had intentially placed Sea the Stars wedged among mid-pack traffic early in the race in an effort to relax the European star. But the plan nearly backfired when the congestion failed to clear and Sea the Stars looked trapped as the field raced down the straighaway of the 1-1/2 mile Arc. But a sliver of a hole opened up with less that two furlongs (1/4-mile) to run and Kinane and Sea of Stars found it, ran through it, and left it and the rest of the field on their way to a two-length victory.

No word from trainer John Oxx on whether Sea the Stars will race in the Breeders' Cup, but he said it is definitely being considered. The Buffalo Bills will have a half-time celebration this season in honor Youmzain, who finished second in the Arc de Triomphe for the third consecutive year.

Music Note was as impressive as expected in winning the grade 1 Beldame at Belmont Park Saturday. Sent off as the 1-5 favorite, she notched her second consecutive grade 1 victory after taking the Ballerina in August at Saratoga. Shortly after the Beldame, trainer Saeed bin Suroor confirmed Music Note will be going into the $2 million Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic where she will likely be the favorite. Unbridled Belle was a courageous runner-up in trying to win her second Beldame in three years, but third-place finisher Copper State may be the horse to watch. There was nothing in her Belame that I saw or in any of her previous races for that matter. It was in Crushing the Cup where I noticed that the last two winners the Ladies Classic to come out of the Beldame were Round Pond in 2006 and Ginger Punch in 2007. Both finished third in the Beldame.

It does not appear that the first two finishers in Saturday's Vosburgh (gr. 1) will be headed to the $2 Breeders' Cup Sprint but may instead meet again in the Frank J. De Francis Memorial Dash Nov. 28 at Laurel Park in Maryland. Winner Klassic Cowboy and runner-up Fabulous Strike have plenty of options, according to their connections, with only Klassic Kowboy considering the Cup.

Trainer Bob Baffert said his undefeated Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) winner Lookin' at Lucky is something special. "He’s a pretty exciting horse," Baffert said after the Norfolk. "He’s got power steering. He’s not one dimensional. He has something different than my other ones, so it’s pretty exciting.” Exciting indeed, considering Baffert has won the Norfolk Stakes five times, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile twice and the Kentucky Derby three times.