Goodwood, Jockey Club Gold Cup Winners Fighting Ugly Stats Going Into Classic

Although they are a million dollars in preparation, the Jockey Cup Gold Cup (gr. 1) and Goodwood Stakes (gr. 1) have done far worse than one might expect in seeing their winners repeat in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) . In fact, of the 49 winners of both races during the Breeders' Cup years beginning in 1984 (five horses have won either the Goodwood or Gold Cup twice), only six have come back to win the Classic - three apiece.

What effect that statistic has on 2011 Goodwood winner Game On Dude or this year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup champion Flat Out, is a topic for debate. Much like UFOs and ghosts are debatable in the opinion of some. But there have been some other more obvious reasons for these numbers.

The inaugural Breeders’ Cup Classic was won by 30-to-1 long shot Wild Again who had made his start previous to the Classic at Bay Meadows - finishing third in a one mile allowance race on grass. Finishing second through disqualification was, Slew o’ Gold, winner of the Jockey Club Gold Cup. That year, Lord at War won the Goodwood, and for the first of what would become 13 times; the Goodwood winner would not start in the Classic.

Trained by Hall of Famer Charlie Whittingham, Lord at War won his second Goodwood in 1995 and again the Argentine-bred did not go to the Breeders’ Cup. In 1996 Super Diamond became the third consecutive Goodwood winner to skip the Breeders’ Cup.

In 1997 Whittingham won his third Goodwood in four years with Ferdinand and the horse who had given the bald eagle his first Kentucky Derby victory the year before, gave Whittingham his first Breeders’ Cup Classic in his next start.

There would be another 13 years before Tiznow would win both the Goodwood and the Classic in 2000, but only three more years passed before Pleasantly Perfect would be the last one to win both races.

Although the Jockey Club Gold Cup got off to a fast start with Slew o’ Gold, it would be 11 years before Cigar could win both Gold Cup and Classic. During those years, Gold Cup winners Easy Goer (’89) and Pleasant Tap (’92) got close, but like Slew o’ Gold before them finished second in the Classic. Easy Goer lost to his nemesis Sunday Silence while A.P. Indy defeated Pleasant Tap.

After not starting in the Breeders’ Cup after his first win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup in 1996, Skip Away came back the following year to win his second consecutive Gold Cup in New York. This time owner-trainer Sonny Hines sent Skip Away to the Breeders’ Cup and he put in one of the better performance in the history of the Breeders’ Cup, winning by six lengths at Hollywood Park.

Gold Cup winners performed miserably for the next ten years as Bernardini was the only one to make the top three in the Classic, finishing second to Invasor in 2006. The next best performances by Gold Cup winners during that time were Albert the Great in 2000 and Evening Attire in 2002, both of which finished fourth.

Like Skip Away, Curlin was a two-time Jockey Club Gold Cup winner but a one-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner. Unlike Skip Away ten years before, Curlin pulled off the Gold Cup/Breeders’ Cup double in 2007, winning the Classic over a quagmire track at a rainy Monmouth Park, but was unable to repeat a year later. Curlin had little trouble winning his second Gold Cup as the odds-on favorite at 2-to-5, but was dull in the Breeders’ Cup over Santa Anita’s artificial main track and finished fourth.

The 6-for-54 statistic may be surprising at first glance, but there are many explanations. In the early years of the Breeders’ Cup, the domestic and international nomination of foals was less organized and marketed. Therefore it would have been very expensive for the owners of horses like Lord at War and Crème Fraiche to run in the Breeders’ Cup. In many instances, horses would have to win their respective Breeders’ Cup race in order to come out of the race with a profit. That was a chance many owners were just not willing to take.

There are those winners of Goodwood and Gold Cup that obviously bounced going into the Breeders’ Cup. In 1984 when the Breeders’ Cup first ran, it can easily be argued that the Gold Cup was more prestigious than the Breeders’ Cup. Owners and trainers treated it that way and pointed their horses accordingly. If they came out of the Gold Cup and went to the Classic, fine. But the Gold Cup was the target.

And then there are the more obvious like Aptitude, an easy winner of the 2001 Jockey Club Gold Cup achieving a historically high 123 Beyer Figure at the same time. After the race, trainer Bobby Frankel was immediately concerned about Aptitude bouncing in the Classic, and he was correct. Aptitude finished eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic weeks later.

There is also the fact the Jockey Club Gold Cup was run at 1-1/2 miles until 1999, so Easy Goer was the last Gold Cup winner to try to win the Classic backing up to the 1-1/4 distance. Waquoit, who finished third behind Alysheba in the darkness of an unlit Churchill Downs in 1987; Vandlandingham (’85) and Slew o’Gold all had that challenge as well.

At 1-1/8 miles, the Goodwood set up much better for Classic bound horses, but since the race was first run as the Goodwood Racecourse Stakes as part of an exchange program with Santa Anita and the track in Sussex, England. Its spot on the calendar combined with the distance, the Goodwood morphed into a grade 1 stake by 1997 and its impact on the Classic quickly followed. In 1998 Goodwood winner Silver Charm appeared within reach of victory in the stretch before he drifted out badly and finished in the middle in the track and in second behind Awesome Again.

A year later, Bud Royale took the Goodwood and he too finished second the Classic to 1999 winner Cat Thief. Tiznow used the Goodwood to prepare for both of his Classics wins in 2000-’01, but only won the first Goodwood . In the 2001 Goodwood, Tiznow finished third behind Freedom Crest and Skimming.

Santa Anita also had a cushion track on their main course from 2007-2010 and during that time, Tiago would be the only Goodwood winner to run in the Classic, finishing fifth behind Curlin in that rainy ’07 Classic at Monmouth Park.

This year, Flat Out and Game On Dude will also likely face a considerable onslaught from horses out of other races. Horse of the Year candidate Havre de Grace will once again face the boys in the Classic having already won the Woodward Stakes over her male counterparts at Saratoga this summer. She had a leisurely win the Beldame (gr. 1) Saturday at Belmont Park. Kelso (gr. 2) winner Uncle Mo will also continue his comeback from a mid-season liver ailment that kept him out of the Triple Crown by further graduating into the Classic. Whitney Handicap (gr. 1) winner Tizway, who skipped the Gold Cup because of a fever the week before, is also back on track and training well for the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

No doubt many handicappers at the Breeders’ Cup will circle Flat Out and Game On Dude on their programs and bet accordingly. Both after all, won their respective last starts nicely. But if history repeats, or even has a significant influence, the 6-for-54 stat will only change in the right hand column.

Stars Casting Healthy Glow Over Big Thoroughbred Racing Weekend

Breeders’ Cup fever will reach new heights this Saturday as Belmont Park features their Super Saturday card and Santa Anita offers five stakes with Breeders’ Cup implications during their opening weekend.

Super Saturday offers six graded stakes – five of them grade 1 – worth $2.7 million. All six of the races are “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup at Churchill Downs and will be telecast on ESPN Classic and ESPN3 from 4:30 – 7:30 pm EDT. The five grade 1s are the $750,000 Jockey Club Gold Cup for older horses at a 1-1/4 miles, the $350,000 Beldame at 1-1/8 miles for fillies and mares, and the $350,000 Vosburg at six furlongs; all on the main track; and the $500,000 Joe Hirsch and $500,000 Flower Bowl on grass. The $200,000 Kelso at one mile is grade 2.

Saturday Santa Anita offers the $250,000 Norfolk Stakes for 2-year-olds, the $250,000 Goodwood Stakes for older horses at 1-1/8 miles; fillies and mares at 1-1/4 miles on grass in the $250,000 Yellow Ribbon presented by Emirates Airline and the $250,000 Lady’s Secret, fillies and mares at 1-1/8 miles. The $250,000 Oak Leaf (gr. 1) for 2-year-old fillies on Sunday will round out the grade 1 action at Santa Anita. All are also “Win and You’re In” races for the Breeders’ Cup.

Typically, the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita and the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont are the spot light races, even during this annually star-studded weekend. Both races are in the heavy weight division of horses racing - older horses going around two turns on the main track. It is also a division that has grown to include the sophomore males, some with Triple Crown race titles, others with credentials from other major derbies and stakes this summer.

But this weekend, both tracks need to toss their spot lights and rely on the glow that will be coming off of all the stars in these races.

The Goodwood looks to be shaping up as a bit of a West Coast championship with the likes of Haskell winner Coil and Santa Anita Handicap winner Game On Dude coming from the Bob Baffert Barn. Twirling Candy, a multiple graded stakes winner that has danced all the marquee dances in Southern California this year is also set to go at it again. Pacific Classic (gr. 1) winner Acclamation, who would be favored if he runs, is also entered Sunday in the Clement Hirsch Turf Championship at Santa Anita Sunday. Trainer Don Warren and part owner Bud Johnston are still deciding whether Acclamation will run in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic or the $3 million Breeders’ Cup Turf.

Although the Goodwood boys have their Horse of the Year aspirations, perhaps the horse running at Santa Anita with the best chance at the 2011 golden Eclipse Award is a filly. Blind Luck has won three consecutive graded stakes this year including the July 16 Delaware Handicap (gr. 1) over nemesis Havre de Grace. (More on her later) Blind Luck trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has elected to keep his accomplished filly closer to home to prepare for the Breeder’s Cup and has also decided to run against fellow females in the Lady’s Secret. Although Hollendorfer has said he never considered the Goodwood, he had earlier thought of running Blind Luck against older males in the Pacific Classic.

Similar circumstances exist in New York where Travers Stakes winner Stay Thirsty is the expected favorite in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Although the race has been hit by the defection of Whitney winner Tizway, there remains and interesting and accomplished group.

Flat Out is now the most popular older horse in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, having won the Suburban (gr. 1) at Belmont Park this summer before finishing second in both the Whitney and Woodward (gr. 1) at Saratoga. There are also two stars from last year’s Triple Crown races making grade 1 comebacks in the Gold Cup. Ice Box, the Nick Zito trainee who won the Florida Derby (gr. 1) and was second in the Kentucky Derby behind winner Super Saver last year; and 2010 Belmont winner Drosselmeyer, are both entered.

Just as in California, however, the leading contender for Horse of the Year in New York, is a 4-year-old filly. Havre de Grace, who defeated the boys in the grade 1 Woodward at Saratoga in her last race, now has four wins from five starts this year, two of which are grade 1. Havre de Grace also takes her victory in the Apple Blossom (over Blind Luck BTW) into the Beldame at Belmont.

If ever there was a horse road warrior or an equine frequent flyer, Cape Blanco could easily fit the bill. Based at trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Europe, the son of Galileo has come to the United States and won the Man O’ War at Belmont and the Arlington Million at Arlington Park near Chicago, two races beyond their grade 1 status in significance.

Saturday Cape Blanco will try for his American hat trick in the Joe Hirsch Memorial, where he should be favored over the five challengers that include solid stakes winners Mission Approved and Dean’s Kitten.

Uncle Mo, the brilliant champion 2-year-old last year who nearly went to the Kentucky Derby as the favorite this year before liver problems sidelined him, also makes the second start of his comeback. Last month, Uncle Mo came just a nose short of winning the King’s Bishop Stakes over eventual winner Caleb’s Posse. Despite missing the Triple Crown and all of the summer derbies, Uncle Mo will take plenty of support into the one mile Kelso, perhaps training for the $1 million Breeders Cup Dirt Mile – although the Breeders’ Cup Classic is still under consideration by trainer Todd Pletcher and owner Mike Repole.

There are more stars to ponder and more races to handicap from Saturday; plenty to keep fans happy and players a playin’.

And to think this is only a precursor…

Brock on Brock

Every now and then I’ll receive a tweet. “He’s entered.” Or I’ll get a message on Facebook: “Looks who running at Santa Anita/Monmouth/Belmont/Saratoga tomorrow.” At the suggestion of a friend on Twitter, I finally have him registered on my DRF.com Watch Mail. Got one the other day as a matter of fact.

Brock is in the third race at Belmont Park Wednesday. The race does not have much noteworthy about it. It is just a weekday maiden special weight for a purse of $51,000. Making his sixth career start for trainer Steve Asmussen (photo right), Brock has time and room for improvement to be kind.

At one point, Brock was Mr. Popularity, Joe Cool on Campus, all that and more when he sold as 2-year-old for $2,300,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Calder Sale last March in Florida. As a son of Distorted Humor, and out of the A.P. Indy daughter Tomisue’s Delight, Brock certainly had an impressive catalogue page and it showed as the next richest horse sold was a Smart Strike colt for $825,000.

Distorter Humor had already sired Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brand (gr. 1) winner Funny Cide and a host of other grade 1 stakes winners. Distorted Humor is among the leading producer of stakes winners and earners and demanded a $90,000 stallion fee the year Brock was bred.

But it was mother that brought most of the fire power to Brock’s bloodlines. Tomisue’s Delight won more than $1.2 million on the track include grade 1 stakes such as New York’s Personal Ensign and Ruffian Handicaps. She had already produced a stakes winner (Mr. Sidney) from six foals, of which three were also winners. She also produced Save Big Money, a stakes-place earner of more than $240,000, and is a full sister to 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, both by Horse of the Year A.P. Indy.

Things seem to be going well for Brock after the sale and leading into his career as a race horse. He stayed on schedule with his early training and by the summer, he was in trainer Steve Asmussen’s barn at Saratoga.

Brock went off at a relatively popular 7-to-2 in his first start, but ran into a buzz saw and finished eighth of nine horses that day, more than 18 lengths behind a rookie Stay Thirsty. Stay Thirsty of course, is on a two-graded race winning streak having taken the Jim Dandy (gr. 2) and Woodward (gr. 1) at Saratoga recently. That was Brock’s only start as a 2-year-old.

More than seven months later, Brock tried another group of maidens, this time on the West coast at Santa Anita and at a farther distance of one mile. Although Brock was the second choice of the bettors again and he ran a better race, Brock finished a well beaten fourth, finishing more than 14 lengths behind the winner. Again Brock had met another steamer in Midnight Interlude, who would go on to represent trainer Bob Baffert in the Kentucky Derby on May 7, but it was time for Brock to make some progress.

Brock made his next start at Churchill Downs on May 7; except he was not running in the Kentucky Derby. Brock was still in maiden races, this one just following the Derby. Brock finished seventh, more than six lengths from the winner. The race was far from impressive, but again there was some improvement.

Brock started again at Churchill a month later, but his progress seemed to have flattened as he was fourth for the second time, this time 10 lengths from the lead. In his four career races, he had beaten by a combined 48 lengths.

Brock was not bred for a fast start and his blood dictates that he should like the longer races. But frustration must still creep into the minds of Asmussen or the team now behind Stonerstreet Stables when considering Brock. Stonerstreet, of course, was founded by the late Jess Jackson and runs under the yellow colors made famous by their Horse of the Year winners Curlin and Rachel Alexandra.

And Stonerstreet horses are not for early retirement. Both Curlin and Rachel Alexandra ran in the year following their Horse of the Year award. Certainly – even as blue as Brock’s blood - they are were not ready to give up after only four starts.

And sure enough, Brock responded in his last race, finishing second in a maiden special weight race at Monmouth Park July 11.

Wednesday Brock makes his sixth start in the third race at Belmont Park going a mile around one turn. Belmont Park line maker has Brock listed as the 2-1 favorite and if that holds, it will be the first time Brock walks into the starting gate favored.

Brock has been training well leading up to this race with five furlong bullet work at Monmouth Park in 1:01 2/5 seconds breezing a week ago Monday. Asmussen followed that with another Monday work this today at Belmont, working as easy three furlongs in :38 2/5ths.

Wednesday’s maiden race is a short field with second choice Crushing breaking from the inside post at 5-to-2 odds. The Chad Brown-trained son of Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo seems most comfortable running near the lead, similar to Brock. However, there appears to be no speedsters to lead the way for this race, which makes it a bit more unpredictable. If there is an unusually slow pace, there is every reason to believe that both or either one of those two may lead this race early.

Or any of the six contenders could try to steal the race by trying get a lone lead. On paper, nobody looks like they want the lead, but Post Ranch and RJ's Affair are making their first starts, both with 8-to-1 morning line odds.

However the race may set up or where ever Brock may finish Wednesday, we’ll still be pulling for him here at The Brock Talk.

Similar to when I followed Hall of Fame Cardinal outfielder Lou Brock during my childhood – I’ve been following Brock the horse. I use the DRF.com Watch Mail to follow equine Brock now instead of the Sporting News which I used then to follow the St. Louis Cardinals. And through the miracle that is TVG I will get to see Brock race live Wednesday instead of the days old box scores on which I had to rely in the weekly Sporting News.

I don't really care about Brock Lesner and the Dallas Cowboy status disqualified Brock Marion from my favorite list. But Lou Brock is my all-time favorite baseball player.

Although he needs a win and a direction change in his career, I’ll take my support a step further with equine Brock. There will be some financial support for Brock at Belmont from Brock at Lone Star Park.

Brock on!

Triple Crown Could Benefit From Dog Days of Summer

Just about this time every year the dog days of summer begin as daily triple digit temperatures become the baking norm for some while humidity joins heat to beat down others. If you not just closing your umbrella and taking off you sweater in Seattle, bouncing on a boat in Lake Superior or hiking around Colorado at about 6,000 feet elevation, these are the days when weather is no longer a topic but a concern. It can be dangerously hot.

The dog days of summer are also a miserable time for sports fans with apologies to major league baseball who consider July Fourth the unofficial start of the “things are getting serious in the standings now” season. So by their own definition, many of fans of the boys of summer are just now cranking up their enthusiasm while reading box scores and checking the standings more often.

Fans of the National Football League (in non-lock out years) are still weeks away from training camp and pre-season games; while college football fans are still counting down to the start of their season in months. The National Basketball Association crowned their champions weeks ago, as did the National Hockey League. Women’s World Cup Soccer, Wimbleton Tennis and Derek Jeter’s awkward march toward 3,000 hits are among the major sports stories now and over the July Fourth weekend.

I say this not to sound like the 11-year-old children who repeatedly whine to their mothers, “I’m board!” in every U.S. town and city this time of year. I bring this up to illustrate perhaps a lost opportunity for thoroughbred racing. Let me be clear, however. This is no criticism of racing departments throughout America. They put on a great weekend of racing nationally with Flat Out continuing the trend of upset winners in the older horse division by winning the Suburban (gr. 2); and Smiling Tiger served notice to male sprinters on the West Coast by winning the Triple Bend (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park. Cross country, Teaks North gave similar warning to turf horses with his win the United Nations (gr. 1) at Monmouth Park. The Dwyer (gr. 2) at Belmont Park, the Shoemaker Mile (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park and the Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs are just a small sampling of great races this past weekend.

None of those races, however, were nationally televised by a network. They probably never will be. In order for racing to guarantee a network telecast, it has to fire one of their four big bullets – the Triple Crown races and the Breeders’ Cup. And the most logical race to move to July 4 weekend – the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) - third leg of the Triple Crown.

Moving the Belmont Stakes may seem a bit radical, but there has been a large contingent of trainers, owners and media who have criticized the current Triple Crown schedule as to rigid. After the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) is run on the first Saturday in May, the Preakness is just two weeks later with three between the second leg and the Belmont Stakes. It has, after all, been 33 years since Affirmed won the last Triple Crown in 1978.

Grade 1 horses are not used racing three times in five weeks say these critics. Today’s top thoroughbreds typically race no more frequent than every four to six weeks. Why then, is the sport’s most important series of races substantially different? The answers are as old as they can be annoying.

Because that’s the way it’s always been. You can’t change the way the game is played. It won’t be fair to compare the new Triple Crown winners to the old ones. How do we compare the records?


These are many of the same arguments professional baseball heard when they expanded the schedule from 162 regular season games to 182 games. When the NFL merged with the All-American Football Conference in 1950, they played 12 regular season games. Last year the league played 16 regular season games and are considering 18. Baseball’s American League plays with a designated hitter. It would be difficult to change the game of baseball more that in one fell swoop again. And the NFL has been changing tackling rules going back to when they outlawed clothes line tackles and grabbing face masking.

So you can change the way the game is played as exemplified by the most successful professional North American sports over the last 50 years – baseball and football.


The new Triple Crown would obviously start on the first Saturday in May with the Kentucky Derby. The Preakness could be run four weeks later with the Belmont coming after five more weeks, concluding the Triple Crown each year on the Saturday of the July 4 weekend.

As mentioned above, moving the Belmont Stakes to July 4 weekend would take advantage of the very slow time in American sports. A patriotic Belmont would not likely attract more television viewers than the Coke Zero 400 NASCAR race from Daytona (also run this past weekend), but should have little problem with regular season baseball in early July, Wimbleton Tennis or the Professional Golfers’ Association tournament that week. In years when a potential Triple Crown winner races in the Belmont, horse racing will knock most of these sports out of the proverbial television ratings park.

Stringing out the Triple Crown may also reverse a troubling trend in the races leading up to the Triple Crown. Because of the grueling five week test of the Triple Crown schedule, trainers are running in fewer races preparing for the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown schedule. They want fresh horses going into those races so they are running in few races in the months leading up to the Derby. The last five Kentucky Derby winners had only two prep races in the months before their respective Kentucky Derbies.

That trend hasn’t seemed to impact the major grade 1 Derby preps such as the Florida, Arkansas and Santa Anita Derbies, nor the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes or Resort World New York Casino Wood Memorial. But early graded preps like the Robert Lewis Stakes, Risen Star Stakes and Holy Bull Stakes are becoming less and less significant. At the very least, they are currently less attractive to the trainers with Kentucky Derby aspirations than in years past.

In the modern sports arena horse racing has been relegated to a position far below the NFL, college football and NASCAAR in their popularity and ability to draw television viewers. Major league baseball and the National Basketball Association may have challenges in the televisions ratings for given games, but their popularity is unquestionably above that of horse racing. Trainers, like football coaches and baseball managers, have a strong tendencies to copy what the champions are doing.

In such a competitive environment for the attention and dollars of American sports fans, there are very few opportunities to acquire a bigger piece of the sports pie. It would take more than a few tweaks to change the schedule of the Triple Crown, and it would no doubt create long debates comparing Triple Crown winners of yore with any future horse who may win the three races in the classic series.

Sometimes big change can also result in big pay-offs. To be fair they can end with big failures too. But horse racing may have an opportunity. It is an opportunity to capitalize on a slow time on our nation’s sports calendar. It is an opportunity to align one of our premier events with a big national holiday. And an opportunity to excel in when others are melting in the dog days of summer.

Birthday Horses

Yesterday was my 52nd birthday. I don’t say that insolently looking for more happy birthday wishes. I say that to make a point.

Race trackers are a good lot.

If you’re reading this blog, you probably consider yourself a race-tracker. Whether you are a groom, trainer, jockey, owner or just fan, you’re a race-tracker. If you don’t consider yourself a race-tracker,… I suggest you consider it seriously. It is a good group.

I say that based on my birthday experiences yesterday on the internet. Quite frankly, I must say, it is something that I had never experienced before - at least on the internet and seldom good - or off the computer. They are steamers, hot tips, inside track winners.

Yes, there are plenty of horseracing prognosticators on the internet. They have websites, twitter accounts and facebook pages. And there are those serous players who like to share and discuss their selections as well. Some are better handicappers than others, but there seems to be something to learn from a great many of them.

But these tips were different. There were three of them. All came from different people. All three said simply “Happy Birthday Brock” then a horse’s name, race and track. One was posted on my Facebook wall and two came via direct message. There was nothing mysterious about them. They were all just different enough to nullify suspicion.

The first birthday steamer came on my Facebook page wall. The horse was Kindersley in the first race at Belmont Park. Now I’m not one to play many tips – I’ve just lost too much money believing too many other people. I have now reserved myself to losing money because of my lack of handicapping skill. It's not much more profitable, but it feels better.

But yesterday was different. It was my birthday so why not take a shot. After all, Kindersley was an attractive 6-to-1. Unfortunately, Kindersley encountered a little trouble shortly after the break of the one mile allowance race and was never able to catch the top two and finished third. I lost my small win bet, but certainly got an ample amount of action in return.

I returned to my Facebook page with a sigh and grin and again I found two more steamers. They were sent by two different Facebook friends from two enitely different parts of the country. Both of these tips were sent to my Facebook inbox, with more confidentiality than Kendersley, who was posted on my wall. But Kindersley's effort had me in the mood, so I decided to again plop down a small win bet on each of the new birthday tips.

The first came from my old stomping grounds at Louisiana Downs and was ridden by Quincy Hamilton, a former client of mine from my years as a financial advisor. Hudson’s Creed was also 9-to-2 so again, I took a shot with a small win bet. Hudson’s Creed broke on top and never looked back and I was rewarded with for my small endeavor.

Now I had house money and it was still my birthday.

The third steamer was like Hudson’s Creed in that he was running at yet another of my former stops on the horse racing trail, Hollywood Park. Lucky Primo was the tip and sure enough, Lucky Primo won the Golden State Cup for California-breds and returned a handsome $19.00.

I must also say that these tips were not sent to me by close friends. Although additional thought says they probably should be. They are just some acquaintances of mine in the interesting world that is social media. It is interesting in that I don’t believe I have ever received three good horse racing tips in one day. It is very seldom that one good steamer is passed my way on any given race day.

But yesterday was my birthday and these seemed as unique as they eventually turned out. There may also be an old race track rule that you don’t tout some nag to somebody on their birthday. If not. There should be. Regardless, I think the whole experience says something about horse people in general. They may not always have a lot to give, but when they do, it is sincere. At least it sure felt that way yesterday.

Thanks friends.

Belmont Trends Say Stay Close Early

With the post positions now set and the morning line made for the 143rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I) Saturday, handicappers and prognosticators can now get underway. But before speed figures are studied and past performances perused, perhaps defining what it takes to win the Belmont Stakes is in order. After all, with the 1-1/2 mile distance, the sandy Belmont main track, the wide sweeping turns and it place as the third leg of the grueling Triple Crown to name a few of the races nuances, the Belmont Stakes is among the most unique in North America.

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) winner Animal Kingdom has been installed as the morning line favorite with 5-to-2 odds. Unfortunately, being either the Derby winner or the favorite have not been so prosperous in the concrete jungle where dreams are made of.

In the last 30 years, only Swale in 1984 and Thunder Gulch 11 years later, have won both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. During that same span, seven others who won the Run for the Roses finished second – sometimes heartbreaking seconds – in the Belmont. Smarty Jones (2004), Real Quiet (1999), Silver Charm (’97) and Sunday Silence all finished second in the Belmont to end their bid for the Triple Crown. Pleasant Colony (’81), Alysheba (’87), Charismatic (’99),War Emblem ('02)and Big Brown (’08) were less dramatic in losing their Triple Crowns in the Belmont.

Favorites have not fared so well in the last three decades either. Only six favorites have won the last 30 runnings (20%) of the Belmont Stakes with the last being Afleet Alex in 2005. Other favorites to don the white carnations in the Belmont winners’ circle were Point Given (’01), Thunder Gulch, A.P. Indy (’92), Risen Star (’88) and Swale.

Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro has been assigned the role as second favorite in the morning line at 4-to-1. If Nehro goes to the gate in the Belmont as the second most popular among punters, he will have a considerable advantage, at least from a historical perspective, over the favorite. In the last 30 years, ten Belmont winners (30%) have gone off as the second choice In the wagering.

Although many wrongly assume that the 12 furlong Belmont plays into an advantage for closers, trainer Steve Asmussen may want jockey Corey Nakatani to repeat his strategy in the Kentucky Derby with Nehro. Previously a closer from as far back as tenth-place in earlier races, Nehro was sixth after the first half-mile of the Derby, but was just more than 3 lengths from the lead.

That seems to be the cat bird seat in the Belmont Stakes, or near that margin anyway. Looking back 30 years again, only five horses have won the Belmont virtually from gate to wire and seven others have won the race from 6-1/2 lengths off the lead or more after the first four furlongs. The other 18 winners raced from between a half-length to 3-1/2 lengths off the lead early in their victorious romps in New York.

It would not be smart to totally discount a front runner like Shackleford, however. With little competition for the front-runner position, Shackleford is likely to try to join the likes of Da’ Tara (2008), Touch Gold, Swale and Conquistador Cielo in 1982 as those who won after leading early in the Belmont. Touch Gold throws a bit of a monkey wrench into this analysis after his quirky 1997 victory in which he lead after a half-mile, then dropped back to fourth, before making another run to catch Silver Charm at the wire.

And not all speedsters are completely defeated by the long Belmont distance. Nine other front runners have held on to finish second or third in the last 30 years. In fact, in the last three years, the pace-setter has finished in the top two with First Dude and Dunkirk both finishing second last year and 2009 respectively; and Da’ Tara winning.

Preakness winners have had their challenges in the Belmont with only five winning the second and third jewels of the Triple Crown in the last 30 years including Afleet Alex (’05), Point Given (’01), Tobasco Cat (’94), Hansel (’91) and Risen Star.

Master of Hounds returns to the United States from his base in trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Britain after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby and returning to Europe. In the last 30 years, he will be the 11th invader to start in the Belmont Stakes after traveling to New York from abroad with only Go And Go winning in 1990. Others of note were Le Voyageur, third in the 1989 Belmont behind Easy Goer and Sunday Silence; and My Memoirs, second to A.P. Indy in 1992.

The history of the Belmont is as interesting and unique as the race itself and over the last 30 years some trends seem to have developed. Speed horses, obviously, do not win the Belmont with any regularity, but they stay in the top three more often than some might think. Closers seem to have their challenges as well while staying close to the pace seems to be the winning formula.

The race has certainly measured up to its moniker as the Test of Champions as ten of the last 30 winner’s have been recognized as the divisional champion at year’s end and 59 in all. It is a large field that has entered to run in the 2011 Belmont with 12 slated to start in one of the oldest races in North America. Whether this Belmont is to be won by Derby champion Animal Kingdom, invader Master of Hounds, Preakness winner Shackleford or any other, after the race, somebody will be under the bright lights of New York and all its fame and history.

Belmont Iconic Regardless of Triple Crown

Since Shackleford dug in on his left lead in the final strides of the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) two weeks ago, holding off Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom, we’ve known there will be no Triple Crown winner in 2011. It will be 33 years to the day Friday, since Affirmed and the young jockey Steve Cauthen captured the attention of America by holding off the nemisis Alydar by head to win the Belmont Stakes after taking the Derby and Preakness in 1978.

Therefor, the crowd at Belmont Park Saturday will not be as big as the crowd if Animal Kingdom had been going for the illustrious Triple Crown; and the television ratings probably won’t be as strong. The mediocrity of this group of thoroughbreds has also been concluded by those analysts who calculate such equine performance evaluations and not widely disputed by many outside the Beyers and Ragozins of the world.

But you have to give this 2011 class of 3-year-olds some credit – on many different fronts quite frankly. They have been a sound bunch compared to some classes in front of them. Arkansas Derby (gr. I) winner Archarcharch has been retired due to an injury he suffered in the Kentucky Derby, but most of the other 2008 3-year-old colt models are either still racing or in an extended pit stop.

In fact, the last three stars to leave the Triple Crown trail are all expected to return to the races. Premier Pegasus, scratched just days before going to the gate as the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) favorite, is recovering from his surgery to repair a hair line fracture in his left front cannon bone and may return to the races this summer. San Vincente Stakes (gr. II) and Rebel Stakes (gr. II) winner The Factor is recovering from similar surgery and trainer Bob Baffert has said the August 27 Foxwood’s King’s Bishop Stakes(gr. I) at Saratoga is the target for the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) favorite. Uncle Mo, the champion 2-year-old male from last year and favorite to win the Derby for most of the winter, was scratched the day before the race not because of injury, but problems with his liver, (cholangeohepatitis for those scoring at home.) There is optimism that last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)winner will again race if efforts to treats his current condition succeed.

Having nineteen from a given class start in the Kentucky Derby is nothing special, but this group came right back and filled up the gate with 14 starting in the Preakness and there are 11 probable and three additional possible starters for the Belmont Stakes. That is partially due to a lack of an intimidating star, but as Jay Privman pointed out in his Daily Racing Form column, it may be the first time ever that the first seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby also start in the Belmont. As Privman also said, even if the top six finishers in the Derby start in the Belmont, it will be history. It has been since 1950 since the first five Derby finishers came back to run in the Belmont Stakes.

This group is not the most accomplished: there are only three 2011 stakes victories between Shackleford and Animal Kingdom and multiple graded stakes winners in the class since the first of the year can be counted on one hand. Long shot winners dominated the races leading up to the Triple Crown with the Florida Derby the only grade 1 race on dirt this year with a single digit win pay-off.

Even with no chance of a Triple Crown winner, both Animal Kingdom and Shackleford have an opportunity to join a fairly elite group that has won two legs of the Triple Crown and not the other. Only eleven horses have won the Kentucky Derby, lost in the Preakness, then won the Belmont. Coincidentally, eleven others have lost in the Derby, then come back to win the Preakness and Belmont. Seven others have won the Preakness and Belmont without running in the Kentucky Derby, but all of those were in 1922 and before when the Preakness was run before the Kentucky Derby.

The last to pull of the Derby-Belmont double was Thunder Gulch in 1995 with Swale (1984), Bold Forbes (’76), Chateaugay (’63), Needles (’56) and Zev (’23) among them as well. All were named champions in their respective years.

Among the eleven to win the Preakness and Belmont after losing the Derby, ten of those were named champions including Afleet Alex (2005), Point Given (’01), Hansel (1991), Risen Star (’88), Little Current (’74), Damascus (’67), Nashua (’55), Native Dancer (’53), Capot (’49) and Bimelech in 1940. Tabasco Cat in 1994 was the only member of that fraternity not to be named champion.

Certainly though, the Belmont Stakes is an iconic sporting event in North America regardless of a potential Triple Crown winner or not. Since the race was first run at Jerome Park in 1867, 59 of its winners have been named the champion 3-year-old colt or gelding of their respective years.

Three times, the Belmont Park crowd has exceeded 100,000 on-track fans with the largest crowd coming in 2004 when 120,139 came to watch Birdstone stop the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones. Large crowds of between 45,000 and 70,000 are typical on Belmont day.


The Belmont is also the oldest of the Triple Crown races predating the first Preakness (1873) by six years and the first Kentucky Derby (1875) by eight years. The Belmont Stakes is one of the oldest races in North America with the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland (1831), the Queen’s Plate (1864) at Woodbine in Canada and the Travers Stakes (1864) at Saratoga older. However, the Belmont, which will be run for the 143rd time in 2011, is third to the Phoenix (159th running in 2011) and Queens Plate (152nd running in 2011) in total runnings. The Travers has had gaps in its history and its 142nd running will be in 2011.

For those reasons, the Belmont Stakes has plenty of history and prestige and the winner will be deserving of the all that comes with winning the American classic.

Historical Peter Pan Returns To Belmont Lore

The New York Racing Association has returned the Peter Pan Stakes (gr. 2) to their schedule of added-money events after a one year hiatus, and I for one, am happy about it. Long regarded as the local prep race for the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1), the 1-1/8 mile Peter Pan has a very interesting history and an 11-horse field Saturday trying to add to lore.

It has been some time since A.P. Indy (photo right) used the Peter Pan as a springboard to his 1992 Belmont Stakes and eventual Horse of the Year honors, but there were many great Peter Pan winners before and few good ones since.

One of the more interesting recent Peter Pan winners was Casino Drive in 2009. Purchased for $950,000 at the 2006 Keeneland September Yearling Sale by Hidetoshi Yamamoto, Casino Drive was then shipped to Japan where he would make his first start nearly two years later in an allowance race. He won the allowance race easily and because of Casino Drive’s family, Yamamoto returned him to the United States to prepare for the Belmont Stakes in the Peter Pan. Casino Drive was by 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, out of the mare Better Than Honour, making him a half-brother to 2006 Belmont Stakes winner Jazil and a three-quarter brother to 2007 Belmont Stakes winner Rags to Riches.

He won the Peter Pan Stakes but unfortunately, Casino Drive was scratched from the Belmont days before the race. Casino Drive later won an allowance race in New York preparing for the Breeders’ Cup that year, but despite his undefeated record, Casino Drive would finish last in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1). He would end his career finishing sixth in the Japan Cup Dirt the next year in his only other race.

Before A.P. Indy, seven other Peter Pan winners went on to take the Belmont Stakes, including Danzig Connection (1986), Slew o’Gold (’83), Coastal (’79) and Caravan (’58) among them.

But the 1957 Peter Pan Stakes was a part of one of the more interesting stories in horse racing folklore. Considered by some to be the greatest crop of 3-year-olds ever, the sophomore thoroughbreds that year included 1957 Horse of the Year Bold Ruler; Round Table, later named the 1958 Horse of the Year; Kentucky Derby winner Iron Liege and Gallant Man.

In the Kentucky Derby that year, Iron Liege had the lead down the stretch, but Gallant Man was making up ground with every stride. As the two passed by the sixteenth pole, just as it appeared Gallant Man would take the lead and win the Kentucky Derby, jockey Bill Shoemaker misjudged the finish line and stood up on Gallant Man. Shoemaker quickly corrected his error and instantly resumed riding, but it was too late as Iron Liege and Bill Hartack won the Derby by a nose.

Shoemaker received a 15-day suspension for the mistake but John Nerud, the trainer of Gallant Man and a former jockey himself, never came to terms with the historical bungle by the young jockey. But whether by instruction from owner Ralph Lowe or a slow recovery from shock, Nerud again had Shoemaker aboard Gallant Man in his next race, the Peter Pan four weeks later.

Shoemaker and Gallant Man won the Peter Pan then two weeks later took the Belmont Stakes by eight lengths over Inside Track in second and Bold Ruler in third. Shoemaker and Gallant Man became quite a team after that, eventually winning seven of their next ten races including the 1957 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the 1958 Hollywood Gold Cup.

High Point in 1953 and Counterpoint in ’51 also won the Peter Pan before also winning the Belmont, but there are other memorable – perhaps not among the greats, but memorable nonetheless – Peter Peter Pan victors. The D. Wayne Lukas-trained Grand Slam in 1998 and Seeking the Gold from the famous Phipps Stable ten years earlier are notable Peter Pan winners along with Leo Castelli in 1987 and Ponder in ’49.

With a nice sized field of 11 set for the 2011 edition of the Peter Pan, there is every possibility that another star is among them. Whether or not that turns out to be case, is of little consequence to me. I’m just happy to have the Peter Pan back.

Light Beginning To Shine At End Of Belmont Tunnel

With less than two weeks until the grade 1 Belmont Stakes, there seems to be as much talk in the media and more chatter on about the potential closing of New York racing rather than the third leg in the Triple Crown. With Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky skipping the Belmont, it will be difficult for the field live up to the historical billing as the Test of Champions and to be held under such an umbrella of uncertainty doesn't make matters any better.

Although New York governor David Patterson offered the New York Racing Association, made up of Belmont Park, Saratoga and Aqueduct, a $25 million loan that would keep them in business through the Spring of 2011, the state Senate and Assembly must enact the legislation. NYRA officials have said they do not have the cash to remain open through June without the loan and has sent a lay-off warning to it's 1,300 employees so there is a great deal of urgency to the legislators necessary assistance.

Make no mistake that if Super Save had won the Preakness and was headed for a possible Triple Crown, the potential closure of NYRA would still be a significant story.

But with the absence of the Derby and Preakness winner and only three of the likely ten starters coming into the Belmont off a victory in their last race, it is not the brightest of times for the Belmont Stakes.

The most credible of the winning Belmont trio is the Nick Zito-trained Fly Down, a 6-length winner of the grade 2 Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park May 8. Zito will be looking for his third Belmont Stakes after winning with the longshot Da'Tara in 2007 and stopping Smarty Jones' Triple Crown bid with Birdstone in 2004.

Prior to the Dwyer, Fly Down was never a factor when ninth in the Louisiana Derby and and had only an allowance and maiden wins to his credit.



The other two recent winners are Game On Dude, the Bob Baffert trainee who won a sub-par Lone Star Derby (gr. 3) May 8; and Stay Put, who won an allowance race at Churchill Downs in his last start.

Zito will come to the Belmont paddock well armed with with talent and class for the June 5 Belmont as he will also saddle probable favorite Ice Box (top photo). A hard charging second to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby in his last race and winner of the Florida Derby (gr. 1) before that, Ice Box encountered several traffic problems in the Derby and was considered the best horse that day by many.

For those who have closely followed the Triple Crown trail throughout the Spring, Drosslemeyer will be a familiar name among this year's Belmont runners. Another in the arsenal of WinStar Farm-owned three-year-olds this year, Drosslemeyer missed qualifying for the Kentucky Derby after finishing fourth in the Risen Star Stakes and third in the Louisiana Derby, both grade 2 stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans before the Derby. Trainer Bill Mott has also employed the riding services of jockey Mike Smith for the Belmont replacing Kent Desormeaux. While Mott and Smith are Hall of Famers, both will be looking for their first Belmont Stakes victory.

Among others expected in the Belmont are First Dude, second in Preakness behind Lookin at Lucky; Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Make Music For Me and Uptowncharlybrown, third in the Lexington Stakes (gr. 2) at Keeneland in his last race. Uptowncharlybrown will be making his first start from the barn of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin after his trainer Alan Seewald passed away unexpectedly shortly be the Lexington. Longtime Seewald assistant Linda White was listed as the official trainer in the Lextingon Stakes.

Trained by Dale Romans, First Dude ran a very big race while almost stealing the Preakness Stakes in a gate to wire performance. Despite setting fast fractions while racing alone on the lead in the Preakness, he held on gamely when challenged by Lookin at Lucky, Carcortado, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist in the stretch. Despite the misconception that the 1-1/2 mile Belmont favors horses with a come-from-behind running style, a horse like First Dude can be dangerous alone on a slow lead.

So we head to the 142nd running of the Test of Champions under dark and uncertain skies. But before you become too disappointed in this inglorious Belmont, just remember less than a year ago when an unheralded Summer Bird came into the Belmont with a certain amount of anonymity, pulled a mild upset and went win the grade 1 Travers at Saratoga and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) over older horses. The credentials may not be attached to this field yet, but there is evidence of class.

And sometimes, that's more than enough to make a good horse race.

Neither Paradise Nor Bust, Horse Racing Presses On

Thoroughbred racing in North America is a vast industry that spans all three countries, including every state in the United States whether the home of tracks, breeders, owners and horsemen, management, manufacturing, service, agriculture or fans and gamblers. So whether you're elated by the Medaglia d' Oro filly that sold for a Maryland record $650,000 last week or prepared to take arms against the closing of Saratoga, be aware that all is not lost nor are we paradise bound.

The Triple Crown Bad News
The 2010 Triple Crown has never had much star quality momentum since the injury and departure of Fountain of Youth (gr. 2) and Wood Memorial (gr. 1) winner Eskendereya (photo right). Even before that, Looking at Lucky, who was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby throughout most of the winter, never got untracked barely winning a troubled Rebel Stakes (gr. 3), and unlucky losses in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver provided plenty of star potential coming from the barn of Todd Pletcher and having the services of public favorite Calvin Borel, but that team flattened out in the Preakness and will now skip the Belmont.

To make matters worse for racing fans, Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky will also skip the Belmont and instead be pointed toward the grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in New Jersey on August 1. So we are left with a Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) without a Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner for the first time since 2006.

The Triple Crown Good News
The NBC telecast of the Kentucky Derby was the highest in 18 years and eclipsed the 2009 Derby telecast that was the highest in 20 years. The 10.3 overnight rating and 23 share mean that nearly one in four television sets turned on Saturday afternoon were tuned into the Kentucky Derby. In terms of comparison to other major league sports on tv, the Derby ratings were higher than the final game of the 2009 World Series, the 2009 NBA Championship final game and the Stanley Cup finals in the NHL.

While the television ratings for the Preakness fell nearly 20% from a year ago, that Preakness was bolstered by the presence of the filly Rachel Alexandra and was among the highest rated Preakness telecasts in two decades. Even with the drop in comparison to last year, the Preakness ratings were still higher than the 2008 telecast and NBC reported that the combined ratings for the two telecasts results in the highest numbers of any consecutive horse telecasts since 1989.

More Good News To Triple Crown Bad News
While the 3-year-old crop of 2010 has yet to develop a horse with much star power, the older horse division is perhaps as loaded with stars as any year in decades.

Zenyatta continues to run into the racing history books and living rooms of America with every race as she continues to add to her now undefeated record in 16 career starts. While 2009 Horse of Year Rachel Alexandra has stumbled a bit in two close losses this year, there is no doubt she will draw attention and crowds when she makes here next start. Should Rachel Alexandra develop any resemblance of her 2009 form and eventually meet Zenyatta, the race will be a significant historical event in racing.

Just below the two superstars looms the popular Quality Road, winner of the 2009 Florida Derby (gr. 1) and undefeated in two starts this year; Summer Bird, the first horse in 20 years to win Belmont, Travers (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1); and Rail Trip on the West coast, who looked impressive while winning the Mervyn LeRoy (gr. 2)in preparation for his defense of the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. 1) title.

Closings on the Coasts?
For at least the last two years, Hollywood Park near Los Angeles has ended a race meet with little or no assurance that it would not be the last. In July 2005, Churchill Downs sold the track to the Bay Meadows Land Company for $260 million in cash. Under the terms of the deal, the company was to continue thoroughbred racing at Hollywood Park for at least three years and longer if favorable gaming legislation was passed in California. Five years later, there are no slots at California race tracks, Hollywood Park Race Track is still running and the Hollywood Park Tomorrow retail, commercial and residential development is still just a plan.

Across town at Santa Anita, owner Magna Entertainment appears to have survived a bankruptcy in their Roman racetrack empire that has spanned to Texas, Maryland, Michigan and various points in between. Now parent company Magna International Development has told the Oak Tree Racing Association, which has leased Santa Anita since 1969 for their non-profit Fall meeting, that they are reneging on a previous agreement and want to void the lease. But California neighbors Hollywood Park and Del Mar near San Diego quickly told Oak Tree officials they are welcome to run the meeting at their tracks. MID blinked and is expected to resume negotiations with Oak Tree Officials.

MID chief executive officer Dennis Mills has a standing offer to play poker at the Sheridan house any time. He wouldn’t last an hour at the same table as my wife.

On the East coast, New York Racing Association president and CEO Charlie Hayward said Monday that cash problems must be resolved with the state or they will not have the funds to continue the Belmont Park meeting past the Belmont Stakes nor open Saratoga. Due to a $17 million shortfall from the New York Off-Track Betting Corp., NYRA, which operates Belmont Park, Saratoga and Aqueduct race tracks, has hit a cash crisis with devastating potential.

Although New York governor David Paterson and various state legislators have pledged not to allow racing to halt in New York, those same politicians have been working nine years to approve a slot operator and allow Video Lottery Terminals to be installed at Aqueduct. Slot revenues are expected to be a large benefit to the NYRA and state bottom line just as it has in other racing jurisdictions where slots have been allowed at tracks.

East Coast Good News
Saturday, Monmouth Park will open perhaps the most anticipated racing season in their 64-year history, offering $1 million per day in purses and attracting some of the top stables from New York, California and Kentucky. The 50-day summer meet is part of a plan that has sliced live thoroughbred racing days in New Jersey to 71 total and eliminating the thoroughbred season at the Meadowlands.

The season will feature racing predominantly on a Friday through Sunday basis in an effort to boost attendance and handle at the track to subsidize the large purses. Management is also counting on full fields and 11 and 12-race cards that are likely to become more attractive to the thoroughbred players across the country.

The racing industry has for years clamored for the "less racing/larger fields" strategy to be implemented in racing jurisdictions throughout the country. But the risk of potential lost revenue due to lost racing dates has been too large for managements and states before the Monmouth experiment begins this week.

Bad Economy Blasts Breeders Too
According to Bloodhorse.com, fees for advertised stallion may have fallen as much as 25% in 2009 and the 2010 season may be even worse for stallion owners and breeders. Gross sales at public auctions in North America fell from $972 million in 2008 to $659 million a year later, a decrease of some 32%. Lost revenues at sales directly and adversely affect studs fees, in particular the summer yearling market.

But the sales markets are showing signs of improvement in the early months of 2010 which will have a positive impact on stallion fees should the trend continue.

One of the leading early economic indicators for public auctions are the success of two-year-old in training sales held by public auction houses Barretts, Fasig-Tipton, Keeneland, and the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. While gross sales at these auctions have decreased at many of the sales, the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training Monday in Maryland saw horses sold and gross revenue increase 7.9% and 23%, respectively, from a year ago.

One segment of the industry that has done well throughout the 2-year-old season are pin-hookers. (those that purchase yearlings at summer auctions with the express intent of reselling them in 2-year-old-in-training sales the following spring.) The rate of return on investment for most pin-hookers this year has more than doubled into the 70% range according to bloodhorse.com, giving plenty of hope to the yearling market later this summer.

Good yearling sales means improved stud fees and hopefully the recovery of yet another thoroughbred racing segment from the depths of this latest recession.

Let the Rachel Alexandra vs. Zenyatta Debate Continue

The racing gods continue to smile down upon us this year after two exciting wins by two brilliant mares Saturday with Rachel Alexandra winning the Mother Goose (photo at left) in New York and Zenyatta winning the Vanity at Hollywood Park. Add to that comments by Zenyatta owner Jerry Moss that he would consider taking Zenyatta outside of Southern California to face Rachel Alexandra and it was quite a good day for racing fans.

Rachel took the racing stage first Saturday in the $300,000 Mother Goose at Belmont Park, but faced only two rivals. Sent off at odds of 1-9, Rachel easily put away second-place finisher Malibu Prayer and Flashing. Her galloping final strides were no surprise, nor was the 19-3/4 length margin - although it eclipsed Ruffian's 1975 margin. But her final time of 1:46.33 broke the stakes record by nearly 7/10ths of a second and she did it with such ease. At one point just before the finish, jockey Calvin Borel seemed so relaxed it appeared he reached up and gave her a congratulatory pat or maybe just fixed her main for the photo.

Minutes later on the West Coast, Zenyatta remained undefeated winning the grade 1, $300,000 Vanity Handicap. Although she faced only four other rivals, Zenyatta met with considerable more adversity than Rachel, most notably the 129-pound assignment under the terms of the handicap conditions of the Vanity. The late running Zenyatta had less pace to run at than she would like, but stayed a bit closer to the pace and prevailed with confidence by 2-1/4 lengths with another late run.

At the top of the pace, it appeared the extra weight was a challenge for Zenyatta until she ranged alongside the leaders inside the 1/16th pole to the finish. That's when she pricked her ears as if to say a passing hello to eventual runner-up Briecat and third place finisher Dawn After Dawn.

Now the question begs as to where these two magical mares - although Rachel is technically a filly - could possible meet. My guess would be the grade 1, $400,000 Personal Ensign Stakes at Saratoga in late August. Since Rachel Alexandra controlling owner Jess Jackson said Monday that he would not race his filly on a synthetic track, such as they have in Zenyatta home-base of Southern California - it appears Rachel's home of New York would be the next logical place for a possible match-up.

But Rachel Alexandra would again have to leave her comfort zone in the Personal Ensign, or any other race versus Zenyatta, because of the age difference. Rachel Alexandra is a 3-year-old and Zenyatta races against older mares. Both owning teams are trying to map out possible paths for not just divisional championship honors, but perhaps Horse of the Year honors as well.

Rachel Alexandra has already proven she can leave and win outside of her division of course, winning the Blackberry Preakness Stakes in May.