In Pursuit of the Kentucky Derby Formula

Is there a formula for winning the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1)?

Certainly, there is no proven recipe for breeders to produce a Kentucky Derby winner. The last ten Kentucky Derby winners have been sired by nine different stallions. The Maria’s Mon is the only stallion during that span to have sired two winners having sired 2001 Derby winner Monarchos and last year’s winner Super Saver. That in itself put Maria’s Mon (photo right) on an elite list with only 18 other stallions that have produced more than one Kentucky Derby winner. Before Maria’s Mon, the most recent stallions with two Derby winners were Alydar (Alysheba, 1987, Strike The Gold, ’91) and Halo (Sunny’s Halo, ’83 and Sunday Silence, ’89). Falsetto, Virgil, Sir Gallahad III and Bull Lea all sired three Kentucky Derby winners with others stallions with two.

On the bottom side of the last ten Derby winnering pedigrees, only Dixieland Band is listed on as the dam’s sire on more than one. The former Lane’s End stallion sired Regal Band, the dam of Monarchos; and Street Sense's mother Bedazzle.

There is no Kentucky Derby winning map for owners either. Owners spent some $400 million on yearling’s at Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton Company public yearling auctions in 2008 in search of a 2010 Kentucky Derby winner. The next year they spent an addition $64 million on two-year-olds in training at three additional Fasig-Tipton Sales Florida, Maryland and Texas. Unfortunately for all of them, the eventual winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby would be the home-bred Super Saver – bred and raised by his owners at their WinStar Farm in Versailles, Kentucky.

Since creating his Godolphin Stable in 1992, perhaps no one has invested more money in thoroughbred horse racing than Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. He has been among the leading buyers at nearly every major thoroughbred auction in the world, spending hundreds of millions of dollars. Sheikh Mohammed also has major racing operations in Europe, North America, Japan and in his home of Dubai, UAE. His Darley has become a massive international breeding operation with farms in Kentucky, England, Dubai, Japan and Australia. Since 1992, Sheikh Mohammed has owned or was in partnership on nine Kentucky Derby starters. His best finish has be sixth with China Bowl in 2000. Money can't buy you love or a Kentucky Derby winner.

What about trainers then? Surely there must be a plan that works well for the conditioners. No, but there seems to at least be some clues. Since Lil E. Tee won the Kentucky Derby in 1992, every Derby winner has shared at least three criteria. They all raced as a two-year and had won their first race by January of their 3-year-old year. At times, the third principal is out of the trainer’s control. But every winner of those 19 Kentucky Derbies has a sharp race, (defined as finishing fourth or better and within five lengths or less lengths from the winner) in their start just previous to the Kentucky Derby.

There have been some other guidelines met by nearly all of the previous 19 Kentucky Derby winners, but not quite. Since 1992, only 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm did not run in a two-turn race by February of his 3-year-old year. Only Mine That Bird (2010) and War Emblem (2002) had not recorded at least a 90 Beyer Speed Figure before February and only Funny Cide (2003) and Sea Hero (1993) had not been first or second in a two-turn race by March.

Between Lil E. Tee in 1992 and Barbaro in 2006, every Kentucky Derby winner had at least three starts before the Derby during their three-year-old year. Since then, Street Sense (‘07), Big Brown (‘08), Mine That Bird and Super Saver, came to Churchill Downs in consecutive years with only two starts in their respective sophomore campaigns.

During the last four years, Calvin Borel seems to have the jockey secret down. The rail-hugging Borel has now won three of the last four Kentucky Derbies with Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Super Saver. In the last 19 years, only Kent Desormeaux (photo left) has won the Derby three times winning with Real Quiet (1989) Fusaichi Pegasus (2001) and Big Brown. Gary Stevens won three Kentucky Derbies going back to his first aboard Winning Colors in 1988. Since, he won the Run for the Roses with Thunder Gulch (’95) and Silver Charm (’97).

Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack have the record for most Kentucky Derby wins with five each while Bill Shoemaker has four. Arcaro won with Lawrin, Whirlaway, Hoop Jr., Citation and Hill Gail between 1938 and 1952. Hartack won the Iron Liege, Venetian Way, Decidedly, Northern Dancer and Majestic Prince from 1957 through ’69. Shoemaker won with Swaps, Tomy Lee, Lucky Debonair and Ferdinand from 1955 through 1986.

There are no paths, plans or recipes that can guarantee a Kentucky Derby winner. Watching the gut wrenching decisions of owners and trainers to withdraw horses like Toby’s Corner, The Factor and To Honor and Serve to name a few, illustrates that getting to the Kentucky Derby is a monumental task. And if plans existed and were flawlessly executed, the pull of a bad pill at the post position draw or a second, third, or fourth bump in the first half-mile of the race can shatter all plans and flawless executions.

Perhaps that is what makes it the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing

In a exclusive interview with The Brock Talk, Mr. Horse Racing discusses the highlights of 2010 and the prospects of the industry in 2011.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: What was the best about 2010?

Mr. Horse Racing: Zenyatta was by far the star of the year, if not the star of the decade here in North America. Watching her streak grow to 19 undefeated wins was a great thrill and brought recognition to the sport from such influential media as Oprah Winfrey’s O Magazine and 60 Minutes on CBS. Even in defeat, her Breeders’ Cup Classic loss to Blame is one of the greatest races of our generation.

I also think people underestimate the year Quality Road had. He began the year in a starting gate rehab program after his Jerry Springer/Maury Povich performance in which he tried to eat the Santa Anita starting gate and it’s crew before the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Quality Road returns to begin the year with three graded races and has the biggest image change since Tom Hanks left Bussom Buddies.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: What were the biggest disappointments of 2010?

Mr. Horse Racing: Other than the obvious being Zenyatta’s defeat in the aforementioned Breeders’ Cup Classic, there were four big disappointments in 2010. The other notable disappointment was Rachel Alexandra suffering defeats at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, Churchill Downs, Saratoga and thus retiring before the Breeders’ Cup. Number two: We have now gone two years without a Kentucky Derby champion winning a race after the Run For The Roses. Neither Super Saver nor Mine That Bird managed an appearance in the winner’s circle after winning the Derby. Number Three: Zenyatta losing her final race. Some would make this the biggest disappointment of the year, but at least she made it to the big stage with the streak and notched her place in horse racing history among those that brought horse racing to the general public. Difficult to say that her ultimate star power was a disappointment. And finally, number Four: There was no race between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. We had two chances this year. Thanks to Oaklawn Park president Charles Cella and his offer to write a big check if both appeared in the grade 1 Apple Blossom, there was a chance in April. The other missed opportunity came when Zenyatta’s connections decided not to ship to Saratoga for the grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes in August. A decision that cost her a slam dunk as Horse of the Year.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: Will we have a Triple Crown winner this year?

Mr. Horse Racing: Without hope and optimism, there is no horse racing. But I can say two things about the Triple Crown. We have a good group that will represent the class of 2011 including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo, Boys of Toscanova and To Honor and Serve. There are also some 20 others that are on watch lists throughout the industry. From what I’ve heard talking to Santa Claus and others, there were a lot of owners and trainers that had injury-free on the Christmas, Hanaka, and Festivus lists this year.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: We need another female jockey star in the sport. Any chances?

Mr. Horse Racing: First, let's recognize the progress women have made in recent years. Linda Rice won the training title at Saratoga in 2009 and was second to Todd Pletcher in 2010. Among the North America’s leading consignors at thoroughbred auctions are Murray Smith and Meg Levy. Women are becoming more prominent as owners as seen by Jenny Craig, Gretchen Jackson and Maggi Moss. Chantal Sutherland definitely has some star power as a jockey as does Inez Karlsson, a top ten rider at Arlington Park; and Rosemary B. Homeister, Jr., third in the jockey standings during the Churchill Downs winter meeting and a veteran making a courageous comeback after some personal challenges.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: Will thoroughbred racing see a sharp decline in interest after the departure of Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Lookin At Lucky, Blame, Quality Road and the likes?

Mr. Horse Racing: Simply put – No. Horse racing had some the best stars in recent memory carry it through one of the most difficult economic times in our nation’s history. Last year the Kentucky Derby had one of its biggest television ratings with Lookin at Lucky coming off a losing Spring campaign and Super Saver as a marginal favorite. Big crowds and large handles resulted in the New Jersey experiment at Monmouth Park and Churchill is now running on successful Friday night model still popular at Hollywood Park and many other tracks around the country. If the economy shows any hint of rebound, horse racing now has a base to benefit.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: What were the worst decisions in 2010 that will have an impact on 2011?

Mr. Horse Racing: The decision of the Churchill Downs stewards not to scratch Life at Ten from the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic may have cost horse racing thousands of marginal fans. Jockey John Velasquez said on national television that he was not comfortable with the way she was warming up – an important pre-race note most likely missed by casual and novice racing fans. I hate to think of the number of sports book players waiting for their pre-empted college football game on ESPN, with open online wagering accounts, who bet on the favorite as a “why not wager”, only to see her break last and not run a jump. Say goodbye to a great number of those proflic gamblers.

I also have to say that retiring 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird was a blunder. He may not have won the 2011 Santa Anita Handicap or Jockey Club Gold Cup, but he is a Kentucky Derby winning gelding that could have created much excitement with a marginal career. I would have given him 30 days vacation in Roswell to relax and hone his flying saucer dodging skills then sent him to one of the most prolific horsemen in the Southwest over the last 40 years, Keith Asmussen in Laredo, for the winter. If the folks at the Asmussen Training Center, known for buying and producing millionaires from California to France, see a sparkle in Mine That Bird, then off to Ron McAnally in California. McAnally has a long history with the Asmussen operation and of course trained one of the greatest geldings of our generation in John Henry. McAnally also trains in Southern California where the new track at Santa Anita is natural dirt and not the synthetic nemesis Mine That Bird so disliked. If McAnally decides that the Santa Anita Handicap is not in the plans, then consider a tour of the nation in popular grade 3 races such as the Razorback in Arkansas, the Lone Star Park Handicap in Texas, the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker in Iowa, the Longacres Mile in Washington, or the Monmouth Cup in New Jersey. Fans in these regional markets would clammer to see a Kentucky Derby winner if marketed properly and if Mine That Bird has a spark left, McAnally and the Asmussens would find it.

Beware The Derby Fever After The Juvenile

If you’re planning on running out to Las Vegas to place your Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) future book wager shortly after the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Nov. 6, beware that history is against you. In the previous 26 runnings of the Juvenile, only Street Sense has managed go on to win the Kentucky Derby the following year. In fact, the Juvenile has produced only five Kentucky Derby winners during that time.

The Juvenile got off to a fast start in 1984 when Chief’s Crown won as the odds-on favorite over Tank’s Prospect in second and Spend A Buck (right) in third. Six months later all three were at Churchill Downs for the Derby with Chief’s Crown maintaining his popularity as the favorite. But Spend A Buck turned the tables on the Juvenile winner in a wire-to-wire Kentucky Derby victory while Chief’s Crown could only manage to hang on for third. Tank’s Prospect was seventh in the Derby but came back two weeks later to take the Preakness.

In the 1986 Juvenile, favored Capote defeated Qualify but the future stars were back in third in fourth. Future Kentucky Derby and Preakness winner Alysheba (left) was in the show spot just more than two lengths ahead of Bet Twice. Bet Twice would finish second to Alysheba in the first two legs of the Triple Crown but won the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1). In fact, five of the top six finishers in the Juvenile went on to the Derby with Gulch and Demon’s Begone.

It would be six years before another future Derby winner would even run in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile but the 1988 and ’89 Juveniles did feature Easy Goer and Go and Go, both of whom would take the Belmont Stakes seven months later.

Sea Hero won the 1993 Kentucky Derby after running in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Gulfstream Park in 1992. However, his status as the 2-1 betting choice was deflated when he finished a non-descript seventh behind Juvenile winner Gilded Time in the Juvenile.

The next ten Juveniles produced several future classic winners and 1997 Juvenile Champion Favorite Trick was named Horse of the Year that same year. Tabasco Cat, third in the 1993 Juvenile, went on to win the Preakness and Belmont Stakes in 1994. That same year Timber Country won the Juvenile before winning the Preakness the following year, becoming the first Juvenile winner to win a Triple Crown race.

Point Given was the next Juvenile graduate to win at that level winning the 2001 Preakness after finishing second to Macho Uno in the 2000 Juvenile. Four years later, Afleet Alex was second to Wilko in the Juvenile but would later win both the Preakness and Belmont.

Street Sense was a fairly anonymous Juvenile winner in 2006 at 15-1 odds, but there was a glimpse of the future as jockey Calvin Borel steered around one horse into the far turn before returning to the inside rail to find running room and go on to a 10 length Juvenile victory. The team would repeat that game plan on the first Saturday in May to give Borel his first Derby and trainer Carl Nafzger his second.

The most recent Juvenile graduate to take the Run for the Rose is of Mine That Bird, who took the Derby at odds of 50-1. He was slightly more popular in the 2008 Juvenile with 23-1 odds, but his performance was forgettable, finishing last.

The natural tendency after the Breeders’ Cup is of course, to begin the road to the next year’s Kentucky Derby. Just remember that there is much that can happen between November 6 at Churchill and the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs.

What To Do With Mine That Bird

As the career of 2009 Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands winner Mine That Bird continues to plunge further downward with his last-place finish in the grade 1 Woodward, one has to wonder several things about the diminutive gelding. Was his Kentucky Derby a fluke? If he wasn’t a fluke, what has gone wrong with Mine That Bird since winning the Kentucky Derby? And what can be done, if anything, to get him back on track?

The answer as to the validity of Mine That Bird’s victory in Kentucky is obviously influenced by the fact that he has not won in eight starts since. Not only has he not won, but in his three starts this year in the Firecracker (gr. 2) at Churchill Downs and the Whitney (gr. 1) and Woodward at Saratoga, he has been beaten more than 41 lengths.

To be fair to the horse, that eight-race losing streak is riddled with legitimate excuses. In the eight races since the Derby, Mine That Bird has had five jockey changes, a trainer change, traffic in the Preakness and a bad ride in the Belmont. Two starts came at Santa Anita over a synthetic surface he obviously did not like and his first start this year was a last-second entry into the Firecracker Handicap on turf. In the Woodward he again ran with a new jockey, and blinkers for the first time, and a failed attempt at a new, closer-to-the-pace running style.

Regardless, the fluke label and been attached to Mine That Bird and the armor has worn thin among his defenders. After all, 0-for-8 is 0-for-8.

Now on to the third question: What can be done, if anything, to get him back on track? It is difficult to imagine that he would need another lay-off with only three starts year after his eight month vacation between the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) in November and the Firecracker in July. It would appear that the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Breeders’ Cup Classic or any other grade 1 race are no longer short term options for Mine That Bird.

Perhaps the grade 2 Hawthorne Gold Cup is a viable option. The 10-furlong distance is suitable to Mine That Bird’s come-from-behind running style and the Oct. 2 date may also fit. The Monmouth Cup Stakes (gr. 2) at 1-1/8 miles Oct. 9 or the $100,000 Spend A Buck Handicap (gr. 3) at Calder the following week are other options.

But make no mistake. Mine That Bird may be just one loss away from retirement. Some might say he should be on his way back to Roswell, New Mexico now. But that is a difficult decision to make on a grade 1 winning, 4-year-old gelding. It is difficult to watch the Kentucky Derby winner flounder around Saratoga in embarrassment, but there has to be more left in the tank and some hope that what may be left isn’t sour.

That might take some wins at a lower level for a few races to help Mine That Bird regain his confidence and his competitiveness. Neither of which he currently seems to have. In no way are we suggesting Mine That Bird ever be dropped below allowance level racing. That seems obvious to racing fans but sometimes escapes certain trainers or owners.

But if all else fails and trainer D. Wayne Lukas can’t find the correct buttons to push on Mine That Bird, a swift retirement decision must be order. And Mine That Bird can live the rest of his days enjoying the dry, sunny afternoons and the funny lights in the night skies above Roswell.

Editors Note: This blog post is part of the Thoroughbred Bloggers’ Alliance Winning Topic Friday. This week various TBA bloggers are addressing Retirement: Where is the line for retirement vs competing, but not winning, for a horse that once won at a high level? As fans we want our stars to hang around and race as much as possible, but all horses lose form, some permanently some for a period of time. As fans we can't have it both ways wanting more racing, but we don't want to see our stars sullied.

You can read more TBA Blogs at the TBA home page.

Quality Road, Mine That Bird Taking Different Strategies Into Woodward

One horse in Saturday’s grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Saratoga is hoping to continue his quest for Horse of the Year. Another is in pursuit of lost respect.

The former is Quality Road, winner of three of four races this year, including grade 1 wins in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park in February and the Metropolitan Mile Handicap at Belmont Park in late May.

The later is Mine That Bird, who is winless in seven starts since winning the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands some 16 months ago.

Carrying five pounds more than Blame under the handicap conditions of the Whitney (gr. 1) earlier in the Saratoga meeting, Quality Road suffered his only defeat of the year by a just a head. Blame is being pointed toward the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) at Belmont Park Oct. 2 to prepare for a probable rematch with Quality Road in the Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 6. That leaves Quality Road as the 1-4 morning line favorite in the Woodward against lesser competition that has recent optional claiming winner Convocation as the second choice at 6-1 odds. Mine That Bird is the third choice at 10-1.

While a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Classic may be necessary for either Blame, Quality Road or other candidates to clinch the golden Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year, trainer Todd Pletcher (photo above) seems to have as much confidence as the Saratoga line maker according to his quotes in Daily Racing Form. “That’s the way we’d like to see the race unfold, for someone to show enough initiative that we can put him in a situation where he can follow someone,” Pletcher told DRF. “I think that’s his best running style.”

The most likely to accommodate Pletcher is the speedy Arcodoro, a speedy victor against non-winners of two races allowance company at Saratoga in his last start.

A fast earlyt pace may be just what D. Wayne Lukas (photo left), trainer of Mine That Bird, has ordered for the Woodward as well. The come from behind gelding is has run two very marginal races this year, finishing eighth on grass at Churchill Downs in the Firecracker Handicap (gr. 2) and fifth again Quality Road and Blame in the Whitney. While Lukas will not be able control the pace in the Woodward, he has already made a significant change with Mine That Bird, firing jockey Calvin Borel and replacing him with Rajiv Maragh.

Lukas is also changing the pace strategy for Mine That Bird in the Whitney telling DRF that “We got to give him a chance at the top of the stretch to close. We could be five or six lengths [back] but we can’t be 16 or 17 lengths back and run down the top handicap horses.” Mine That Bird will also be running in blinkers for the first time in an effort to help him stay closer to the pace setters early.

Now the Mine That Bird bandwagon is about a crowded as a Death Valley tour bus in August, but he continues to be a charming sort for some racing fans. A Kentucky Derby winner always carries some degree of popularity - even if he accomplished the historical feat at 20-1 odds - but Mine That Bird’s smallish stature and reproductive status seem to add to his charm.

But charm doesn’t win grade 1 races at Saratoga. And based on his recent races, changes in strategy and jockeys may not be enough to help Mine That Bird get to the Woodward winner’s circle either. It doesn’t help that Lukas won his only Woodward 28 years ago with Island Whirl. But Saratoga is the “Graveyard of Favorites” so they have that go for them. Which is nice.

Ditto: Matt Carothers On Rachel Alexandra
I am completely on board with TVG host Matt Carothers and his editorial comment regarding the next start for 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. Like Carothers, and echoed on Friday's telecast of Blinkers Off by co-host Dan Illman of Daily Racing Form, wouldn't we all like to see Rachel Alexandra make her next start against Zenyatta in the Lady's Secret Stakes (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park during the Oak Tree meeting Oct. 2.

Of course, the race will never happen. Carothers, Illman and I recognize that. Jess Jackson, principal owner of Rachel Alexandra, has sworn he would never start Rachel Alexandra on a artificial surface. Hollywood Park has a Cushion Track main track. That makes the shipping across the country from New York to California almost inconsequential.

But the Lady's Secret does make sense on many other points as Carothers and Illman both pointed out. The Lady's Secret is 1-1/8 miles, right at Rachel's best distance and an 1/8th of a mile shorter than Zenyatta's distance.

Despite Jackson's convictions, nobody knows how Rachel Alexandra will respond to the artifical surface. And what better time to try than now, when Rachel Alexandra has so little to lose after losing to Persistently as the odds-on favorite in the Personal Ensign last week. But even with the three defeats this year, Rachel's Beyer Speed Figures compare favorably to Zenyatta. Rachel Alexandra may not be the great filly she was last year, but based on Beyer numbers alone, she appears, at the very least, in good enough form to muster a significant challenge if not an all out upset.

But the race would not need a Rachel upset to be one of the great races (if not in most demand) of our era. To see Rachel Alexandra on the lead down the stretch at Hollywood Park, with Zenyatta in methodical and determined pursuit is all we really want.

The problem is: realistically it may be just be too much to ask for.

Super Saver Needs Sea Hero Playbook For Travers

It may not be as historically significant as the 24 consecutive major league loses by the 1889 Cleveland Spiders or the 0-26 losing streak by the National Football League’s Tampa Bay Bucaneers of 1976-1977, but it’s now becoming noticeable – and quite frankly – annoying. Maybe you haven’t even noticed it. But it’s beginning to wear on me a bit.

It has now been since Big Brown won the Monmouth Stakes on September 11, 2008 since a Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands winner has won a subsequent race. That’s right. It has been almost two years since a Kentucky Derby winner has walked into a winner's circle after the first Saturday.

When Mine That Bird lost in the Whitney Handicap (gr. 1) at Saratoga in early August, it was his seventh consecutive loss since winning the Kentucky Derby last year. Super Saver (photo left) is 0-for-2, after finishing eighth the Preakness (gr. 1); and fourth in last month’s Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) at Monmouth Park. Both races won by Lookin at Lucky.

Gato Del Sol lost 15 consecutive races from September 1983 through April of 1985 before ending his career with a win in the Caballero Handicap at Hollywood, but he had two allowance races and a stake at Del Mar between his Derby victory and his streak of losses.

Proud Clarion, the 1967 Derby winner, finished his career by losing all of his nine races in 1968. But like Gato Del Sol, Proud Clarion won races after the Derby and before his losing streak started.

Tomy Lee, the 1959 Derby winner, had a somewhat pathetic post Churchill Downs career. Trainer Frank Childs chose to return Tommy Lee to California to run in the Cinema Handicap at Hollywood Park instead of trying for the Triple Crown and skipped both the Preakness and Belmont. Tomy Lee finished sixth in the Cinema and was given six months off before coming back to win a 6 furlong allowance race. He finished his career with two loses at age four. Both Super Saver and Mine That Bird passed Tommy Lee in the post Derby career derby the second they stepped foot on the track for the Preakness.

Prior to Mine That Bird and Super Saver (photo right), the last time the Kentucky Derby winner did not win the Preakness nor the Belmont in two consecutive years was in 1992 and 1993 with Lil E. Tee and Sea Hero respectively.

Lil E. Tee finished fifth in the Preakness and was then sidelined for the rest of his 3-year-old campaign. He returned to race at Oaklawn Park in the Spring, but his only significant win came in the grade 2 Razorback and he was eventually retired later that year.

The connections behind Super Saver may be hoping for racing pattern similar to what Sea Hero showed after his Run for the Roses. After finishing off the board in the Preakness and Belmont, Sea Hero ran fourth in the Jim Dandy in preparation for his victory in the Travers at 6-1 odds. Super Saver was, of course, fourth in the Haskell Invitational before this year’s Shadwell Travers Stakes (gr. 1), and happens to be 6-1 in the morning line.

Super Saver won’t have Preakness and Haskell winner Lookin at Lucky to deal with in Saturday’s Travers, but will instead have plenty of competition and some adversity, breaking from the far outside post position eleven. Super Saver gets another shot at Haskell runner-up Trappe Shot and Preakness runner-up First Dude, who was also third in both the Belmont and Haskell. Morning line favorite A Little Warm gets the support nod based on his victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) at Saratoga the same weekend as the Haskell.

The position appears to be of little concern for trainer Todd Pletcher who said that there would be benefits to being so far outside. “It looks like your main speed is 1-2-3-4-5 and the other horses who have drawn the outside can kind of fall in there somewhere,” he said shortly after post positions were drawn. “Sometimes, the No. 11 might be a little further out than you’d ideally like, but I think at 1 ¼ miles it’s okay. You get a decent run to the first turn, so [jockey] Calvin [Borel] should have the option to kind of survey everything inside him.”

But Elliott Walden Jr., the vice president and racing manager for WinStar Farm, the owners of Super Saver, said “the second race off the layoff is typically his best. We hope he learned something off the Haskell and will have a good race. He's got to step up. We'll let him do the talking. He's set up to run very, very well.”

Of course in all fairness, it is hard to burden Super Saver after only two losses after the Derby with a losing steak label. Mine That Bird is the main culprit in this two-year drought. But like Mr. Walden, there are a lot of racing fans hoping that Super Saver steps up in the Travers – and ends this dreaded losing streak.

Whitney Has All The Feel of NFL Training Camp

With National Football League training camps at full swing, many around the country have their attention on grown men trying to prove themselves to their coaches, teammates and fans. It just so happens that at the prestigious upstate New York racing haven known as Saratoga, we have nearly the same thing in the $750,000 Whitney Handicap - older horses trying to prove themselves as big league performers.

The grade 1 race at 1-1/8 miles on the main track at Saratoga features arguably three of the top five older horses in North America in Quality Road, Blame and Musket Man plus 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird as well as rising stars Haynesfield and Jardim.

The leader of the pack is without doubt Quality Road, who has been blazing through 2010 like he has some kind of equine chip on his horse shoulder. He has won all three of his starts this year – all in graded races - all impressively. In fact, during those three races, he has only been headed by another horse for about the first half-mile in the Donn Handicap (gr. 1) at Gulfstream Park in February. He went on to win that race by nearly 13 lengths while running the second fastest Donn in history achieving an eye-popping 121 Beyer Speed Figure.

That race was sandwiched between wire-wire victories in the grade 3 Hal's Hope Stakes at Gulfstream Park in January and the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. 1) at Belmont Park in May.

After a 3-year-old year in which he was scratched from the Triple Crown trail just days before the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands as the potential favorite, Quality Road came back to the races last year at Saratoga with a vengeance to win the grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga in track record time. But in his next two races, he was never able to pass Belmont winner Summer Bird in the Travers Stakes (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) in New York.

However, his connections thought enough of him to send him to the West coast for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1). But Quality Road got into a pre-race bout with the Santa Anita gate crew before taking on the starting gate itself, delaying the race and eventually being scratched. So irate about the incident was Quality Road, that he refused to board his flight home to New York days later. Instead trainer Todd Pletcher returned Quality Road to his barn at Aqueduct in a van where he promptly placed him in a camp for wayward starting gate horses.

During most of the winter, while every other horse in the barn was enjoying their mid-morning Timothy hay, Quality Road was doing time with former NYRA starter Bob Duncan at starting gate school at Aqueduct.

Unlike the Oscar winning prison rebel Cool Hand Luke however, with Quality Road it seems there was no “FAIL-yah to communicate.”

While still on probation, as exemplified by the post training hour schooling Quality Road still receives at Saratoga, it seems he is reformed and out to prove himself.

Two rookies to the national older horse league this year are Blame and Haynesfield, both undefeated in their last four starts, including two this year.

Blame brings to Saratoga the most credentials having won the grade 1 Stephen F. Foster Handicap at Chuchill Downs June 12. In fact, this 4-year-old trained by Al Stall Jr. has been turning heads since winning the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga last year. He then traveled to Louisiana Downs for the Super Derby (gr. 2) to run a very good second to a sharp Regal Ransom. Since then Blame has rattled off wins in the grade 2 Fayette at Keeneland, the grade 2 Clark Handicap at Churchill and the grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes at Pimlico before taking the Foster.

Winning the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga is akin to playing on special teams in the NFL. It’s a big deal, but you just get lost in the shuffle with all the graded stakes winners at the Spa. This year, Blame has something to prove.

Haynesfield is the Rodney Dangerfield of this group from the perspective of this blogger at the very least. In blogging about his recent win over the heralded I Want Revenge in the Suburban Handicap (gr. 2) July 3, I referred to him as “Haynesworth.”

Haynesfield also has the grade 3 Discovery Handicap at Aqueduct in November in his four-race streak but the ungraded Empire Classic and an optional claiming race at Belmont are in the make up as well. He has a tendency to like to be near the lead so he’ll have to do battle with the speedy Quality Road early in the long race to make his point.

Then we have the veterans of the national wars trying to prove they can still play at this level – Mine That Bird and Musket Man. Of the two, the Derby winner has much more to prove than Musket Man.

First, Musket Man has a post Triple Crown win in the Super Stakes at Tampa Bay in February. Mine That Bird has lost six straight since taking the run for the roses including a very weak 8th place finish on the turf in the grade 2 Firecracker on the grass at Churchill July 4.

Longshot Kentucky Derby winners Giacomo (2005) and Gato Del Sol (1982) have both long been castigated for their careers after winning the run for the roses, but neither went 0-for-6 post Derby. Giacomo won his fifth race after the Derby in the San Diego Handicap but wound 1-for-7 during his career after Kentucky. Gato Del Sol won an allowance race in New York in his third start after the Derby, but had only one stakes win in the Cabrillo Handicap at Hollywood Park in 13 races after winning at Churchill on the first Saturday of May.

Mine That Bird, under the direction of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas this year, needs to start winning to avoid the one hit wonder label.

In terms of records and labels, perhaps Tom Petty best exemplies Musket Man in his 1989 tune "I Won't Back Down."

And I’ll keep this world from draggin me down.
And I’ll stand my ground, and I won’t back down

Since winning the Illinois Derby (gr. 2) some 15 months ago, Musket Man has taken on the best his class has to offer at the grade 1 level in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Carter Handicap, Metropolitan Handicap as well as the grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes and his win in the minor Super Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He seems to have a propensity to raise to the level of competition, but the winners’ circle has so far eluded him at that level. The words “so far” may be the operative.

Remember nobody knew Brett Favre until his second season at Green Bay.

But unlike Mr.Favre, who is staying at home during training camp this year, this group of older horses is in attendance and ready to go in August.

A Rough Holiday Weekend For Derby Class of '09.

It was not a good holiday weekend for horses from the Derby class of ’09. Derby winner Mine That Bird finished eighth in the grade 2 Firecracker Handicap at Churchill Downs Sunday; Regal Ransom (8th in the ’09 Derby), finished fourth in the Suburban Handicap (gr. 2) while Hold Me Back (12th in the Derby), lost his jockey to a bad breathalyzer test before the Dominion Day Stakes at Woodbine even started Friday. And even though I Want Revenge (photo right) didn’t start in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands last year, he was the prohibitive favorite before being scratched the morning of the race. I Want Revenge didn’t fair much better Saturday, just defeating Regal Ransom for third in the Suburban.

Hold Me Back apparently made the pre-race curfew that Kent Desormeaux missed, because he eventually won the $216,400 Dominian Day with replacement jockey Tyler Pizarro. And forgive me for not being too harsh on the other three.

I Want Revenge was making his return to the races in the 9 furlong Suburban after fifteen months off with his last race being his remarkable Wood Memorial (gr. 1) in April of last year. Around the far turn, eventual winner Haynesfield moved passed Regal Ransom, who had set the Surbuban fractions and began to pull away down the Belmont Park stretch as Regal Ransom and I Want Revenge began to tire. Regal Ransom was also making his first start of the year, having not raced since finishing eighth in the Breeders’ Cup Classic in November.

In a bit of Suburban irony, Haynesfield was a Kentucky Derby prospect in March of last year before he finished eighth in the Gotham (gr. 2) behind I Want Revenge.

Like, Regal Ransom, Mine That Bird (photo left) was making his first start since a poor Breeders’ Cup Classic as he finished ninth that day at Santa Anita. And the 2008 Canadian Champion had a few additional obstacles to overcome as well. Making his first start under the direction of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas, Mine That Bird had been pointed to an allowance race earlier in the week on dirt, but the race didn’t fill. The Firecracker was also Mine That Bird’s first start on turf, and judging by the performance, may be his last.

Lukas has said that they are now pointing Mine That Bird toward the grade 1 Whitney Handicap on the dirt at Saratoga August 7. There he is expected to meet the leading older male horse in the country at this time, Quality Road, with the grade 1 Metropolitan Mile and grade 1 Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park this winter among his 2010 credits.

On a side note, Quality Road worked Sunday at Belmont Park going a half mile in an easy :48.84 for trainer Todd Pletcher. “It was just an easy maintenance breeze for him,” said Jonathan Thomas, Pletcher’s assistant. “He went well.” Quality Road was among the favorites for the 2009 Kentucky Derby as well before an foot injury forced his withdrawl just days before the run for the roses.

No news as to the next start for I Want Revenge from trainer Dick Dutrow’s barn nor on plans for Regal Ransom, from Saeed bin Suroor on plans for Regal Ransom. Toby Sheets, assistant to trainer Steve Asmussen, said plans for Haynesworth will not be determined in the near future either.

Toby Sheets, assistant to trainer Steve Asmussen said “[Haynesworth] came out of the race well. We’ll wait until he comes back and breezes, and then begin talking about it.”

Thoughts, Comments and Questions Regarding 2010

I'm feeling pretty optimistic about horse racing in 2010. With Quality Road's victory in the Hal's Hope Stakes at Gulfstream Park in the books, I'm hoping that will be the first in a long line of returning 2009 stars making their successful new year debuts.

So the new decade has started well for horse racing. But will the momentum continue? Which takes us right into my top questions as we head into 2010.

Question #1. Is Zenyatta retired?

As Steve Haskin said during his recent installment of And They're Off on BloodHorse.com, owner Jerry Moss indicated after the Breeders' Cup that she was retired. But the now 6-year-old mare continues to remain in training at Hollywood Park and certainly there has been no announcement regarding her plans for the breeding shed.

Which brings us to Question #2. If Zenyatta is retired, to what sire will owners Jerry and Ann Moss breed her?

If Zenyatta were mine and money was no object, she would be on her way to Ashford Stud in Kentucky and romance with Giant's Causeway.

One doesn't have to be a bloodstock agent to see how well this mating would fit - at least on paper. Giant's Causeway was the leading sire in North America in 2009 with $11,079,918 in progeny earnings and his $100,000 stud fee is just about the standard by which to measure stallions worthy of Zenyatta.

Giant's Causeway earned more than $3 million on the track and was the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt in England and Europe before finishing second to Tiznow in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He produces winners and stakes winners on dirt, turf and synthetics and more than 500 of his weanlings and yearlings have averaged nearly $300,000 at public auctions over the last four years if the goal is to put the foal on the market.

Despite his name, Giant's Causeway has moderate size at 16.1 hands which is desirable for a mare as large as Zenyatta. We're not trying to produce a Clydsdale here. His all-time leading money earner is multiple English and European Champion Shamardal, whose dam sire is Machiavellian, the paternal grandsire of Zenyatta through Street Cry. Machiavellian is by Mr. Prospector, whose blood runs through many of Giant Causeway's most successful get including Italian Champion Primary, multiple grade 1 winning turf specialist Aragorn, and Giant's 2009 leading money earner Swift Temper.

Not to sound too technical, but according to eNicks.com the Zenyatta-Giant's Causeway paring gets an A++ Werk Nick rating and would produce a foal with a dosage index of 1.80 with a center of distribution of 0.50. In other words, the colt or filly would be able to run all day and then some.

But apparently, I might be getting ahead of myself on the whole retirement issue. If Zenyatta continues to train and breeding plans aren't made sometime in the near future, I for one will start feeding the fires of the Rachel Alexandra meeting.

Question #3.
Would the real Mine That Bird, please stand up?

Host: Contestant number one, please state your name and what you do.
C#1: My name is Mine That Bird and I won the Kentucky Derby and finished second in the Preakness and third in the Belmont.

Host: Contestant number two, please state your name and what you do.
C#2: My name is Mine That Bird and I couldn't outrun a fat man in boots in West Virginia or California.

Host: Contestant number three, please state your name and what you do.
C#3: My name is Mine That Bird but I can't prove it because Chip lost my papers in Baltimore.

Question #4.
Will Lookin' at Lucky win the Kentucky Derby?

The odds, probabilities and history say no. Lookin at Lucky's only loss came while finishing second to Vale of York in a less that comfortable trip in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but came back to impressively win the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park in December. Following the Futurity, Baffert indicated that Lookin' at Lucky would probably prepare for the Derby with just two races and both would be outside of California. This would be a much different strategy than what Baffert has employed with Kentucky Derby winners Silver Charm and Real Quiet (War Emblem came to the Baffert barn just before the Derby) or any of his other Derby stars such as Point Given or Pioneerof the Nile.


Not many January Kentucky Derby favorites are in the winner's circle on the first Saturday in May either. Although the decade of the "oughts" produced post time favorite winners Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), Smarty Jones (2004), Street Sense (2007) and Big Brown (2008), one has to go back to Spectacular Bid in 1979 to find a winning Derby favorite in the previous century.

But for now, Lookin at Lucky looks to have all the parts to be a serious contender in the run for the roses.

Question #5.
Will the Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta popularity carryover into racing generally in 2010?

That all depends on Rachel herself and the Triple Crown. One has to think that those two great mares created some new fans and reinvigorated marginal ones at tracks from California to New York. Any campaign by Rachel resembling 2009 and general sports fans and the media will begin to take further notice.

The Triple Crown stands alone in it's appeal and popularity among "non" racing sports fans and a strong performance by any horse in the Triple Crown will only further solidify the sport's fan base.

Classic Opportunities

I'm not sure the robot from Lost In Space needs to be rolling around the Santa Anita barn area warning Breeders' Cup Classic trainers of danger, but the work by Mine That Bird on Monday morning should be of concern to those who have written him off.

The big smile and glowing comments after the work by trainer Chip Woolley were nice to hear, but we get that from just about all trainers after a good work. But there are two semi-hidden bits of information that are making me take a second look at the Derby winner in the Classic.

Woolley is just now revealing that Mine That Bird's throat surgery in August, while fully successful, came at a very inopportune time. Woolley said MTB was at the top of his game just before the Travers and the surgery was more detrimental to his training than originally thought. Mine That Bird just wasn't back in top form for the Goodwood, according to Woolley, hence the dissappointing sixth-place finish.

The other hidden nugget from the work is the time of the last eighth of a mile in 11 seconds flat. Is that an omen of the return of the startling late kick we saw in the Derby and the big late run we saw in Preakness from the little Birdstone colt?

Richard's Kid Classic Longshot
Zenyatta is my top choice in the Classic and one really doesn't have to look to far down the morningline to start hitting some pretty good prices on horses like Quality Road, Einstein and Gio Ponti.

But the Bob Baffert-trained Richard's Kid is my longshot choice and will be on the top line with Zenyatt on my trifecta.

He won the Pacific Classic (gr. 1) at this distance at Del Mar and was a closing third in the 1-1/8 mile Goodwood (gr. 1) over Pro-Ride in his last race. He also fits a number of profiles as outline in my Breeders' Cup handicapping bible Crushing the Cup.

According authors Jim Mazur and Peter Mallet, 56% percent of the winners in Breeders' Cup Classics on fast tracks were "rally" horses or "closers". He has a six furlong work in him from Oct. 27 and his half-mile in :47 1/5 Monday morning at Santa Anita was apparently much more impressive to watch than to read about. Of all Classic winners, 96% had a sharp last race and 86% have a grade 1 win.

I Like Gio
All throughout the year, I've thought the older turf horses have been a better lot than their counterparts running on main tracks. And for that reason Gio Ponti (photo) is another that I like an awful lot in the Classic. I would have him on top of my trifecta ticket along with Zenyatta and Richard's Kid, but it is against my betting philosophy. (If you need three tries to pick a winner, you shouldn't be betting trifectas.)

Gio Ponti went on a nationwide, grade 1 tour of turf terror this year winning the Frank Kilroe in California, the Manhattan and Man O War in New York and the Arlington Million in Chicago. If turf horses truly can transfer their turf form to Pro-Ride with no fall off, look out for Gio.


Breeders' Cup Or Bust Update
The Paulick Report and Breeders' Cup Charities are in the midst of a cross-crountry bus tour raising money for the Permanently Disabled Jockeys Fund and the V Foundation for Cancer Research. Their latest stop was in New Mexico at Zia Park. Click here to read the update from The Paulick Report.

Zenyatta, Goldikova Among Breeders' Cup Favorites

Mike Watchmaker with Daily Racing Form has published his most recent Breeders' Cup Top 10 With Odds Thursday as we are now just more than two weeks away from the Nov. 6-7 championships.

Producing a morning line is not only an exercise in handicapping and mathmatics but human behavior as well. A proper morning line is one individuals prediction of how the public will perceive and then wager on a race and Watchmaker is among the best at this craft. A good morning line is a very useful handicapping tool for beginner and expert handicapper alike because it offers a good starting point for the novice and an invaluable money management tool for the more experienced player.


With that in mind it is no surprise that Watchmaker has Zenyatta (photo) listed as the 6-to-5 favorite should she run in the $2 million Ladies Classic (gr. 1). The undefeated mare may even slip to even money should her connections decide to keep her in her division.

If Zenyatta runs in the Classic, Watchmaker has her as the 4-to-1 second choice behind European star and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (gr. 1) winner Rip Van Winkle who is at 7-2. Zenyatta's odds must be good news to European punters who see older mares compete against males much more frequently on the other side of the Atlantic. It will certainly be good news for those Zenyatta fans who will bet her anyway and are used to getting less than even money on the great mare. Getting 4-1 on her at Santa Anita will seem like Christmas to them.

The longest shot in the Classic according to Watchmaker's current line is none other than Mine That Bird at 15-1. The last Derby winner to take the Classic and Derby in the same year was Unbridled who pulled off the double in 1990. Interestingly, he went to post in the Classic at 6-1 with his only victory between the Derby and the Breeders' Cup coming in an allowance race at Arlington that year.

Of the fourteen Breeders' Cup races, Watchmaker gave odds of less than 2-1 to only four horses. Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic; Goldikova, at 7-5 in the Mile and Conduit in the Turf and Zensational in the Sprint, both at 8-5.

Goldikova will try to join Miesque in 1987-'88, Lure in 1992-'93 and Da Hoss in 1996 and '98 as the only two-time winners of the Breeders' Cup Mile. She will again be the strong favorite despite finishing third in her last race in the Prix de la Foret (Fr-gr. 1) on Oct. 3 at Longchamp. This year she has also won the Prix Rothschild (gr. 1) for the second conseutive year, the Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le-Buffard-Jacques Le Marois (gr. 1), and the grade 1 Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes.

Conduit will also be looking for a Breeders' Cup repeat, having won the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. 1) last year at Santa Anita. Only High Chaparral in 2002-'03 has won two Turfs, and even he finished in a dead with Johar the second year. In his last race he was fourth in Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (gr. 1) on Oct. 4 at Longchamp but being an also ran in the "Arc" is not necessarily a bad thing in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Daylami won the 1999 Breeders' Cup Turf after finishing ninth in the Arc de Triomphe. His victory in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (gr. 1) and the departure of Rip Van Winkle, Mastercraftsman and Gio Ponti to the Classic will also help keep his odds low.

My sentimental favorite in the Turf, Presious Passion is the fourth choice at 8-1 behind Dar Re Mi at 5-1 and Spanish Moon at 6-1.

Zensational will not be going for a repeat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, but his trainer Bob Baffert is going for a three-peat after winning the race the last two years with Midnight Lute. The flashy grey Zensational will be looking for his four consecutive grade 1 win however, having won the Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. 1) and Pat O'Brien (gr. 1)at Del Mar and the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park this year.

Keep in mind that as horses leave and enter these races and as information changes, so to will any good morning line. Many of these races will have full gates of 14 so Watchmakers odds are technically not a morning line, but I've used the term for discussion sake. Also note that the official morning line will be made by a racing official with the Oak Tree Racing Association after entries close for these races.

Sentimental Favorites

With no regard to wagering or handicapping, there are a few horses headed for the Breeders' Cup that I'm going to be pulling for. My money will probably be elsewhere, but for one reason or another, these horses have captured my affection at some point this year.

Mine That Bird, Classic: It's not that I have any affinity toward his connections although I have warmed up to trainer Chip Woolley Jr. as a trainer. I'd like to see the guy off of those darn crutches pretty soon though. I don't think repeating Unbridled's Derby/Classic will be anything historical although it would open the discussion for Champion Three-Year-Old Male which would be kind of fun.

But what I'd like to see from the little gelding is that amazing kick we saw in the Derby and got a glimse of in the Preakness. After his performance in the grade 1 Goodwood at the Oak Tree meeting recently, however, that doesn't look likely.

Presious Passion, Turf: Finding horses that can go wire-to-wire on the turf successfully and consistently at any level is a rarity. To find a horse that can do it while racing in grade 1 company is just downright a blast.

We all remember that one-mile run in high school P.E. class and the goofy kid that just started sprinting at the beginning of the race only to tire and lucky to finish. Well that's Presious Passion. Except he keeps on going just as he did in the grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth Park and recently in the $300,000 Clement L. Hirsch Memorial Turf Championship (gr. IIT) at Santa Anita Oct. 11.

The Breeders' Cup Turf at Santa Anita starts on a downhill run too, so that should be a benefit to a natural speedster like Presious Passion. I'd say exclude the "goofy" label but I'm not the one who filled out his foal papers.

Dublin, Juvenile: After winning the grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga with Dublin, it looked like trainer D. Wayne Lukas may have plenty of amunition for a run at his sixth Breeders' Cup Juvenile in Dublin. But he ran a dull fifth, beating one horse in the Champagne (gr. 1) at Belmont and now he's a longshot.

Lukas has won 20% of all Breeders' Cup Juveniles run and took three consecutive from 1986-'88 with Capote, Success Express and Is It True. He also won with Timber County in 1984 and Boston Harbor two years later. It would be nice to see him take another.

Ventura, Filly and Mare Sprint; Proviso, Ladies Classic; Visit, Filly and Mare Turf: All horses trained by Bobby Frankel who is battling cancer at his home near Santa Anita. It took 40 starts in the Breeders' Cup before he got his first win with Squirtle Squirt in the 2001 Sprint and he only has five total victories from 72 starts so he hasn't had a great deal of luck in the Breeders' Cup. Ventura presents his best chance this year but here's hoping the Hall of Fame trainer goes three-for-three this year.

Zenyatta, Mine That Bird Top Big Names In Big Weekend

Just as we're getting over the excitement of Super Saturday at Belmont Park, Summer Bird, Sea the Stars, Lookin at Lucky and everthing else grand last week, here we go with Zenyatta, Mine That Bird and a host of other stars and great races this weekend.

Like the Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) last week at Santa Anita's Oak Tree, the Champagne Stakes (gr. 1) at Belmont has championship implications, Breeders' Cup Juvenile implications and alerts the CDC offices in Atlanta of the first signs of Kentucky Derby fever which hits pandamic levels each spring in America. Fans watching the 2-year-old fillies in the Frizette at Belmont and Alcibiades at Keeneland will be wondering if they might be gettng their first glimpse of the next Princess Rooney, Meadow Star or Rachel Alexandra. Grade 1 races are scattered throughout the world on turf, dirt, Polytrack and Pro-Ride.

Zenyatta has the most on the line this weekend when she tries to equal the unbeaten streak of the great Personal Ensign by winning her 13th straight in the $300,000 Ladies Secret Stakes at Santa Anita. She'll face her usual cast of challengers plus one in the Ladies Secret, but it is a cast that seems to be getting closer to pulling an upset. Zenyatta barely won her last race, the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes (gr. 1) at Del Mar, by a head over Anabaa's Creation and Lethal Heat.

But perhaps her biggest competition will come from Life Is Sweet, who lives just a few stalls down from Zenyatta in trainer John Sherriffs barn. Life Is Sweet returns to Santa Anita's Pro-Ride where she won the El Encino (gr. II), La Canada (gr. II) and Santa Margarita Handicap (gr. I) consecutively earlier this year for Shirreffs. Zenyatta defeated Life Is Sweet in both the grade 1 Milady at Hollywood Park and in the Hirsch at Del Mar. But Life Is Sweet is perhaps more comfortable on Santa Anita's Pro-Ride surface.

The "plus one" will be an old nemisis from last year's Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic when Cocao Beach returns to Southern California from New York. Although runner-up to Zenyatta in the Breeders' Cup and later the winner of the grade 1 Matriarch at Hollywood Park, Cocao Beach has since been a bit shuffled back in the Godolphin Stables behind Beldame (gr. 1) winner Music Note. Last year Cocao Beach won the Beldame, but the New York race was given to Music Note - who won the race easily last Saturday - and Cocao Beach was shipped to Santa Anita for the Ladies Secret.

Like Summer Bird last Saturday in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Mine That Bird will be facing older horses for the first time in the $350,000 Goodwood Stakes (gr. 1) at Santa Anita Saturday. It will be his first start since finishing third in the West Virginia Derby in August. He has not won since his surprising victory in the Kentucky Derby, but was a troubled second in the Preakness behind Rachel Alexandra and third in a mistimed ride by Calvin Borel in the Belmont Stakes. Mine That Bird, the king of equine adversity, also missed the Shadwell Travers (gr. 1) due to throat surgery. Summer Bird of course, won the Travers.

Borel reunites with Mine That Bird for the second time in the Goodwood where they will face Pacific Classic (gr. 1) upset winner Richard's Kid, San Diego Handicap (gr. 1) winner Informed as well as Chocolate Candy and 2008 Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) and Travers Stakes (gr. 1) winner Colonel John. This will be the fifth rider change among three jockeys in seven races this year for Mine That Bird.

Thoughts, Comments and Questions.

Jockey Joe Talamo said on Twitter Sunday night that he will be aboard Mine That Bird Tuesday morning at Santa Anita to work the Kentucky Derby winner in preperation for the $350,000, 1-1/8 mile Goodwood (gr. 1) at Santa Anita on Oct. 10. At this time Calvin Borel has the mount aboard Mine That Bird in the Goodwood. According to an artcle in timesunion.com, Mine That Bird arrived in Southern California Friday morning after a 12-hour van ride from New Mexico. And yes, trainer Chip Woolley is still on crutches.


Kentucky Cup Classic (gr. 2) winner Furthest Land may be heading to the Breeders' Cup in November, but it doesn't look like it will be in the Classic. Trainer Michael Maker has instead indicated that the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (gr. 1) will be the ultimate goal with possibly the Fayette Stakes (gr. 3) at Keeneland Oct. 31 as the next step.

It's been a bad week for fans of some great stallions and a champion gelding. First El Prado and Summer Squall pass away. Then we lose Kona Gold and now Cryptoclearance. As a fan of Alysheba, I remember well the hard charging Crytoclearance who was part of that good class of 1984. Bet Twice, Lost Code, and Java Gold were among the stars of that class.

The Sunday morning work tab at Belmont Park is filled with big names preparing for the track's Super Saturday featuring five grade 1 races. In preperation for the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Travers (gr. 1) winner Summer Bird worked five furlongs in 102.40 with jockey Kent Desormeaux aboard while Florida Derby (gr.1) winner and Travers third-place finisher Quality Road also went 5/8th of a mile in 1:01.60. Asiatic Boy put in a rapid half-mile work in :47:55. The work was the fastest that morning getting the bullet notation for that distance.

Gio Ponti, in preperation for the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic and his his fifth straight grade 1 win, put in his duty on the turf course working five furlongs in 1:01.04. Belmont Park will also feature the Beldame for fillies and mares and the seven furlong Vosburgh. Expect to see grade 2 Tom Fool Handicap winner Munnings in the Vosburgh.

I wonder if it was such a good idea for Kentucky Senate President David Williams (R-Burkesville) to begin a public correspondence responding to William S. Farish with "I never cease to be amazed..."? Williams was responding to a editorial published in The Paulick Report in which Farish illustrated the benefits slot machines would bring to the state's horse industry. Farish is the owner of Lane's End Farm, but more important to Williams - I would think - is that Farish is the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Kingdom, appointed by President George W. Bush. Farish is a longtime prominent Republican needless-to-say.

Bird Brothers Battle For Championship

Oh the competition among siblings. Following Summer Bird's "slapping in the slop" Shadwell Travers victory Saturday at Saratoga, one must wonder how voters are now leaning in the race for Champion 3-Year-Old Male. Never one to predict or at times even understand, the voters mindset in any election, I'm going out on a limb here and say they're set on that son of Birdstone. Ironically, it's two brothers - both invited to the Kentucky Derby on the same day only after other, more qualified 3-year-olds according to Derby conditions, dropped out due to last minute injuries.

On one hand we have the Kentucky Derby winner, ever popular, often troubled and maligned Mine That Bird (photo right). A star in Canada as a 2-year-old, and an also ran in El Paso early this year, Mine That Bird won the Run For The Roses at 50-1 with a late acceleration not seen in any classic in many years. Both Calvin Borel and Mike Smith have left him twice now in a bizarre year when they also ride historically good females Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra.

With four trips on Mine That Bird between them, Borel has an "A+" effort in the Derby but a kind "D" for moving Mine That Bird too early in the Belmont. Smith gets a trafffic riddled "B" for his ride on Mine That Bird in Preakness but a "C-" with a tough pace question in the easy West Virginia Derby class. Throw in a minor throat surgery, stolen papers, a trainer who can't walk but likes to drive instead of fly, the Derby announcer forgetting Mine That Bird's name in midstretch and I have to tell ya Steve Asmussen: Mine That Bird makes Kensei look like a first time starter with the Rodney Dangerfield thing.

On the other hand is Summer Bird (photo left). Bred in Kentucky and raised in Florida by his Arkansas owners orginally from India, Summer Bird was just another unraced 3-year-old in March, a maiden only winner in the grade 2 Arkansas Derby, a good six-place finisher as a longshot in the Derby, an 11-1 winner of the Belmont and no match for Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell. Trainer Tim Ice has all the name recognition of the Starlight Vocal Band but is at least no longer a one hit wonder with Summer Bird's Travers win.

Liike brother Mine That, Summer can run. He just has a different way of going about things. While Mine That Bird likes to lay back early and launch as if leaving Cape Kennedy, Summer Bird slowly orbits the track before hitting his thrusters as if using only his slower but steadier momentum for the success of the mission. Just as he did in the Travers.

Although he was much closer to the lead than jockey Kent Desormeaux had wanted, Summer Bird galloped along stalking longshot Our Edge and Kensei. Around the turn, with Desormeaux's hands remaining patiently motionless, Summer Bird seemed to widen his stride alone and had worn down the two leaders by the time Desormeaux allowed him to run at the top of the stretch.

Summer Bird became the 30th horse to win both the Belmont and the Travers, joining Birdstone who won both races in 2004. Many of those previous 29 became Champion 3-Year-Old Male including Point Given ('01), Temperence Hill ('80), Arts and Letters ('69) and Damascus in 1967. Now Summer Bird will try to join that group.

Much of that depends on his next two starts which appears to be the Jockey Club Gold Cup against older horses on October 3 at Belmont Park before the Breeders' Cup Classic in November in California.

Day Of Unexpectations In West Virginia

When jockey Dale Beckner woke up this Saturday, he must have been looking forward to watching Mine That Bird run in the $750,000 West Virginia Derby from the comfort of the jockey's quarters at Mountaineer Park. But he later found himself at the top of stretch in that race aboard longshot Soul Warrior about to run down a tiring Big Drama and fighting off the heralded late kick of the Kentucky Derby winner.

Moments later he and Soul Warrior crossed the finish line in front to give trainer Steve Asmussen the first half of his stakes double and topping off was is sure to be one of the better days of his life.

But that was about it as far as jockeys in West Virginia having a good Saturday - or jockeys that never made it to West Virginia as it were.

Jockey Miguel Mena was schedule to fly from Saratoga to Chester, West Virginia to ride six races - all stakes, two for Asmussen including Soul Warrior. And as Facebook friend Ian Lozada pointed out, the other five horses Mena was scheduled to ride at Mountaineer produced two wins, a second and a third.

After getting the return mount on Mine That Bird in the West Virginia Derby - despite leaving the gelding after an admittedly sub-optimal ride in the Preakness, depite not being able to commit to ride Mine That Bird past the Travers Stakes in late August, jockey Mike Smith again has a questionable ride.

As expected Big Drama went straight to the lead in West Virginia Derby. But what was somewhat unexpected was the size of the lead and the apparent ease at which he galloped down the backside. It even appeared as though he may have extending his lead going into the far turn. Add to that the fact that Smith saw winner after winner that day run on or near the early lead so now Smith had an apparent track bias working against Mine That Bird's closing style. So he made the decision to move Mine That Bird closer to the pace than desirable, not wanting Big Drama to run away from the pack. By the time Big Drama began to tire mid-way around the turn, Mine That Bird was racing along side Soul Warrior. By the time the team passed Big Drama in the stretch, Mine That Bird was spent from the altered running style and faded to third.

"The way the racetrack played all day, whoever made the lead was winning," Smith told Daily Racing Form.

"Mine That Bird doesn't want to run that way," Smith said. "I used too much of him on the backside."

Even if Mine That Bird had raced from his usual place further back in the early stages of the race, there's no guarantee he would have been able to catch a sharp Soul Warrior. So the hard luck and strange tales of Mine That Bird continues. But I wouldn't be jumping off any bandwagons if I were a Mine That Bird fan just yet.

$750,000 West Virginia Derby

To be run Saturday, August 1 at Mountaineer Park
1 (1) - Soul Warrior, Marcos Mena, Steve Asmussen, 15-1
1A(4) - Sunday Sunrise, Corey Lanerie, Steve Asmussen, 15-1
2 (2) - Mine That Bird, Mike Smith M E Chip Woolley Jr., 3-5
3 (3) - Awesome Rhythm, McAleney, John Ross, 12-1
4 (5) - Big Drama Eibar Coa, David Fawkes, 8-5
5 (6) - Monty's Best, E.R. Da Silva, Reade Baker, 10-1

A Preview of The Graveyard of Champions

The opening of Saratoga is indeed a hallowed day for racing enthusiasts for two most contrasting reasons. We anticipate the 36 days of great races run by some of the best horses in some of the most prestigious races. We also somehow can not surpress our facination that the Spa is also known as the Graveyard of Champions or the Graveyard of Favorites.

For it is Saratoga that gave us one of the great sports terms of all-time as Upset became the only horse to ever defeat Man O' War in the 1919 Sanford Stakes at Saratoga. Man O' War owner Samuel D. Riddle did not collect the winner's share of the $4,900 purse for the only time in the big red colt's 21 career starts.

Another big red colt suffered one of his only defeats at Saratoga when Onion defeated Secretariat in the 1973 Whitney Handicap at .10-1 odds at Saratoga and Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox lost to Jim Dandy in the 1930 Travers Stakes at odds of .50-1.

Jim Dandy is the namesake of Saturday's grade 2 stake that will act as a local prep race for the $1 million Travers Stakes on Aug. 27. The $500,000, 1-1/8 race will feature the top three finishers from the Dwyer Stakes in Kensei, Convocation, and Warrior's Reward, pllus Peter Pan winner Charitable Man and perhaps the return of Saratoga Sinner, who is making his first start since winning the grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park in January.

Although the Jim Dandy comes up light against the $1.25 Haskell at Monmouth Park this weekend with Preakness winner Rachel Alexandra and Belmont winner Summer Bird, it will in all likely hood provide a possible "upset" in the Travers should all three Triple Crown race winners meet in the Travers as expected. Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird is also running this weekend in the $750,000 West Virginia Derby in preperation for the Travers.

Should all three run, it will be the first time since 1982 that the three winners of the American Classics have run in the Travers. That year longshot Runaway Groom defeated Preakness winner Aloma's Ruler and Belmont winner Conquistador Cielo who were second and third. Derby winner Gato Del Sol was fifth.

Haskell Purse Up To $1.25 Million In Effort To Attract Mine That Bird

In an effort to attract a full field and possibly Kentucky Derby presented by Yum Brands winner Mine That Bird, Monmouth Park has increased the purse of the grade 1 Haskell Invitational by $250,000 to $1.25 million.

Currently expected for the Aug. 2 Haskell are Blackberty Preakenss (gr. 1) winner Rachel Alexandra, Arkansas Derby (gr. 2) winner Papa Clem, Tom Fool Stakes (gr. 2) winner Munnings, Longbranch Stakes winner Atomic Rain. Iowa Derby winner Duke of Mischief is also a current possibility.

However, Mine That Bird trainer Chip Woolley Jr. said Thursday morning that he will be placing the Derby winner on a van Friday headed for Mountaineer Park and the grade 2, $750,000 West Virginia Derby to be run Aug. 1.

The new purse distribution will pay $700,000 to the Haskell winner, $250,000 to the runner-up, $125,000 to third, $85,000 to fourth, $50,000 to fifth, and $20,000 to sixth through last. Typically purse money in Thoroughbred races is paid down to fifth and possibly sixth place only.

Del Mar Thoroughbred Club reported a record crowd of 44,907 for the July 22 season opener. That figure exceeded the previous all-time record crowd of 44,181 set in 1996 when Dare and Go upset Cigar in the Pacific Classic (gr. I). Attendance for last year’s Del Mar first day was 43,459.

Jay Privman reported on drf.com Thursday that injured jockey Rafael Bejarano may be back in action as early as two or three weeks. Bejarano suffered multiple fractures in his cheek and jaw when is mount Mi Rey broke down in the third race at Del Mar Wednesday and had surgery to repair the injury at Scripps Memorial Hospital in La Jolla, Ca.

Bejarano's jaw was not as badly damaged as first feared. He did not need to have it wired shut, according to the post. "He'll have rubber bands holding it, so he'll be able to open his mouth and at least have soft foods, not be confined to just liquids," his agent Joe Ferrer said to Privman. "His face looked like he went 15 rounds with Mike Tyson."

Birdstone Colt Sells For $400k

When a stallion sires the winners of two of the three Triple Crown races, it is expected that he will have a good year at the following yearling auctions. That appears to be the case with Birdstone who has 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird and Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird among his first racing get. The result: his son topped the first day of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky select yearling sale being conducted in Lexington, Kentucky.

A unnamed dark bay or brown colt by Birdstone sold Monday for $400,000 to John Ferguson, who acts as the buying agent for Sheik Mohammed al Mouktoum's Darley Stud, topping two other yearlings that each sold for $350,000 on a day that had 294 yearlings catalogued.

The colt has Triple Crown blood running thoroughout his pedigree as Birdstone won the Belmont Stakes and his sire Grindstone won the Kentucky Derby. The colt is also out of the mare Slew Smarts, who is by 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew. Both Mine That Bird and Summer Bird are part of Birdstone's first class to hit the racetrack, making him even more attractive to buyers and pinhookers who will be in the market for yearlings.

To illustrate the pinhooking concept we spoke of yesterday, Dapple Stud, who consigned the Birdstone son, paid $37,000 for him in January at a Keeneland Auction.

Slew Smarts did not make it to the track as a racehorse but as a broodmare she is experiencing more success. She has three foals that have raced with the best being Por Que, who won stakes races at Zia Park in New Mexico and Remington Park in Oklahoma.
Multiple grade 1 winner Bernardini, who is perhaps most infamous as the winner of the tragic 2006 Preakness in which Barbaro broke down, was the sire of a bay colt that sold for $350,000 Monday (photo). Bernardini, who is by Belmont winner A.P. Indy, also won the Traves Stakes, The Jockey Club Gold Cup and more than $3 million on the track. The bay yearling colt that sold Monday is out of the Lyphard mare Lyphard's Delta, who was a group 2 stakes winner in England and earned more than $150,000 during her racing career.

Rock Hard Ten, who was second in the 2004 Preakness, had the other $350,000 seller, a filly out of the Seattle Slew mare incredible story.