Breeders' Cup Losses: If It Makes You Feel Any Better...

Well, Breeders’ Cup 2011 is in the books and there were some pretty-pretty-pretty big disappointments - pretty big disappointments at Churchill Downs this weekend.

All-in-all it was another great two days of racing with plenty of champions and stories resulting. The story of jockey

Joseph O’Brien winning the Turf aboard St. Nichols Abbey (IRE) for his father, trainer Aidan, ranks as one of the best stories of this year's World Championships. (Ire). (How closely related Joseph O'Brien is to Taylor Swift is a topic for another blog but...) Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott taking both the Breeders’ Cup Classic on Saturday with Drosselmeyer and the Ladies Classic Friday with Royal Delta; are also among the more popular story lines.

But the disappointsments certainly have their share of the round ups, reviews and results.

From a wagering standpoint, the three biggest disappointments were Union Rags, Goldikova and Turbulent Descent. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle was the biggest favorite of the day. Going to the post with 2-to-5 odds, Secret Circle managed to fight off the late charge of runner-up Shumoss and getting off to a popular start. Two more favorites would win Breeders’ Cup races Friday afternoon and early evening with Miss Aurelia winning the Grey Goose Juvenile Fillies and the Ladies Classic going to Royal Delta. But there were some diffucult races for handicappers and fans in between.

The most popular loser Friday was Turbulent Descent, who was given the lowest morning line odds at 6-to-5 in the Filly and Mare Sprint by Churchill Downs line maker Mike Battaglia. Battaglia was not far off on his line as Turbulent Descent went to the gate with 7-to-5 odds, only to finish fifth behind $42.40 long shot winner Musical Romance.

But Turbulent Descent was far from the biggest disappointment during the 28th running of the Breeders’ Cup. That honor goes to Union Rags, the second-place finisher in the $2 million Juvenile at 11-to-10 Saturday. But don’t blame the young son of Dixie Union too much. After breaking well from post ten, jockey Javier Castellano could not manage any closer to the rail in the short run to the first turn and was caught four wide. Allowing Union Rags to relax in a comfortable stride down the backstretch, Castellano never left the four path, and was again caught wide around the far turn. Union Rags made a great effort down the long Churchill Downs stretch running at eventual winner Hansen, but fell a dramatic head short.

The second most bitter pill to swallow from a wagering standpoint, also came Saturday at Churchill Downs when Goldikova failed to extend her current record to four consecutive victories in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Just as last year, Goldikova went to post as the 13-to-10 favorite, but this year, traffic problems persisted from the first turn to the home stretch. After an aggressive move turning for home by her jockey Olivier Pelier turning, Goldikova tried valiantly before falling short and but still managed third place. An objection was filed against Goldikova by rider Pat Valenzuela on Courageous Cat, but the steward's left the original order of finish.

Had Goldikova won her four Breeders’ Cup Miles, she would have not quite reached trainer Woody Stephens and his five straight Belmont Stakes victories from 1982 to ’86 or Kelso's five consecutive wins in the Jockey Club Gold Cup from 1960-’64. But it would have been quite historic none-the-less. Goldikova is the only horse to win three Breeders’ Cup races - to extend that record would have certainly added to her legacy and the history of the Breeders’ Cup as an international event. Goldikova does have four wins in the prestigious French Prix Rothschile Stakes at Deauville Racecourse among her 17 group and grade 1 wins which is also a record for European females.

No matter the degree of disappointment felt by Goldikova, Union Rags or Turbulent Descent supporters, these pale in comparison to other heavy favorites defeated in previous Breeders’ Cups. Easy Goer supporters went through two beatings from the Breeders' Cup mutuel clerks. As a once defeated 2-year-old, Easy Goer was the 3-to-10 favorite in the 1988 Juvenile, but finished second to Is It True. Like Union Rags, Easy Goer had obstacles galore in the Juvenile including getting bumped at the start by Mountain Ghost, racing wide around the far turn and then jumping the gate tracks nearing the black and white sixteenth pole before the finish.

A year later, Easy Goer was again the favorite in the Classic, this time at 1-to-2, and with a chance to even the score with his west coast nemesis Sunday Silence. Sunday Silence had defeated Easy Goer in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness before Easy Goer won the Belmont.

Again, Easy Goer was second to Sunday Silence and was then the record holder of the top two spots on the list of shortest priced Breeders' Cup losers. Housebuster took the second spot away from Easy Goer on the infamous list when he lost the 1991 Breeders’ Cup Sprint at 2-to-5 when ninth behind winner Sheikh Albadou.

In the seven original Breeders’ Cup races, (Classic, Ladies Classic, Turf, Mile, Juvenile, Juvenile Fillies, Sprint) there have been some 20 odds-on horses defeated. The Breeders’ Cup Turf leads the way as the favorite killer with five going down below even odds from Dancing Brave in 1986, to Sky Classic (’92), Paradise Creek (’94), Kitten’s Joy (’04) and Dylan Thomas in 2007. The Ladies Classic has also not been friendly to odds-on runners. Infirmed in 1987, was the first to be defeated below even odds in the Distaff and has been followed by Banshee Breeze (’08), Robilita (’98) and Sighseek in 2003.

The Classic too has seen four very popular runners leave the course in defeat, beginning with Slew O’Gold in the first Breeders’ Cup Classic in 1984. Off at 3-to-5 coupled with stable mate Mugatea, Slew O’Gold finished third but placed second through disqualification behind 30-1 winner Wild Again. Joining Slew O’Gold and Easy Goer are Cigar losing the Classic at .65-to-1 in 1996 and Curlin losing as the heavy favorite at 9-to-10 in the 2008 Classic.

Yes there were impasses in the Breeders’ Cup this year. Losses by Havre de Grace, Flat Out, Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty are among the hardest felt by their fans, regardless of odds. Many popular Breeders' Cup losers before them have returned to write a different chapter to their racing careers. Others have not and retired to attempted to allow time and their breeding careers try to erase their Breeders' Cup calamities. No doubt that just as those memories of losses faded, those loses from this year will also deminish.

Breeders' Cup Saturday Selections

The Breeders' Cup continues today at Churchill Downs with the first Breeders' Cup race (the Marathon) set to break from the gate at 1:20 ET as race three. Seven races are on the docket today culminated by the $5 million Breeders' Cup Classic.

We got the day off right with my Secret Choice, the most likely winner of the two-day event, taking the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Juvenile Sprint. I thought I was on a roll as Stephanie's Kitten won the Juvenile Fillies Turf at 6-1 odds, but things began to go awry when Musical Romance won the Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint at 20-1 and Perfect Shirl won the Emirates Airlines Filly and Mare Turf and paid $57.20. I had neither and they both ruined pick-3 tickets.

Today is another day filled with more Breeders' Cup at Churchill Downs and I'm hoping Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott get my day started off right and I'm raising my glass to the East toasting trainer Charles "Scooter" Dickey and Flat Out.

Here are my selections and comments for the day.

Breeders' Cup Marathon
#1. Birdrun - As I said, I'm hoping trainer Bill Mott keeps his winning going after taking the Ladies Classic last night with Royal Delta. This son of Belmont winner Birdstone has already shown he can run all day after winning the 1-1/2 Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont Park in June. He won't need to run all day, but a good last quarter in the 1-3/4 mile Marathon is what I'm looking for.

Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
#5. Wrote - Tough race to widdle down to one winner, but European invader Wrote will get the nod from The Brock Talk in the Juvenile Turf. He comes from the barn of Irish superstar trainer Aidan O'Brien who saw Wrote finish third in the group 2 Juddmonte Farm Royal Lodge Stakes in his last race. I like to see a last race that is a bit sharper, but he encountered some traffic challenges that looked to have cost him. A cleaner trip in the Juvenile Turf should provide better results.

Breeders' Cup Sprint
#5. Jackson Bend - Made a big run at Classic fave Uncle Mo in the Kelso Handicap last time out, but was shut off by Uncle Mo while trying to make a move at the top of the stretch at Belmont Park. I'm not saying he was on his way to defeating Uncle Mo, but it looked like he lost enough momentum to keep him from launching a bigger challenge. There's no Uncle Mo in the Breeders' Cup Sprint and Jackson Bend should again show the form he had in winning the grade 1 Forego at Saratoga in September.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
#8. Regally Ready - His be st race came over the Churchill Downs Turf Course at today's distance of five furlongs when he captured the grade 3 Turf Sprint in May. Last November, he won an allowance race by seven lengths, again on Churchill Downs turf at five furlongs, so this is you "Horse for the Course" angle.

TVG Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
#8. Caleb's Posse - A disappointment running third to Wilburn in the Indiana Derby (gr. 2) where a slow-slow pace hurt this come-from-behind specialist. Considered a possible Kentucky Derby horse early in the year, Caleb's Posse won the one mile Smarty Jones at Oaklawn Park in January. Also won the Ohio Derby (gr. 3) at 1-1/16 miles in June and two graded sprints at Saratoga in August.

Emirates Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf
#9. Midday - Upset second-place finisher in last year's Filly and Mare Turf, Midday returns to Churchill this year to take on the boys. Although this race has never been won by a horse going gate-to-wire, there is a shortage of speed in the 2011 version of this 1-3/8 mile race. Was restrained and taken back to last in the early stages of her last race, where she finished her career worst fifth in the group 1 Qipco Champion Stakes at Ascot. In her previous races this year, she was much closer to the early lead and won the group 2 Totesport.com Middleton Stakes at York in May and the group 1 Markel Insurance Nassau Stakes at Goodwood in July.

Breedes' Cup Juvenile
#2. Dullahan - Morning line favorite Union Rags will be difficult to beat but Dullahan brings plenty of ammunition into the Juvenile. Trained by Dale Romans, Dullahan won the grade 1 Dixiana Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last out after being steadied in the first turn. Coming off of the Polytrack surface to Churchill Downs is of less concern as time goes on after Animal Kingdom won the Derby coming off a Polytrack win at Turfway Park.

TVG Breeders' Cup Mile
#1. Goldikova - I'm not picking against her. I'm not betting against her. I'm just going to sit back and watch the great mare try to win her fourth straight Breeders Cup Mile.

Breeders' Cup Classic
#2. Flat Out - Favorite Uncle Mo won't be able to get the 1-1/4 mile Classic based on his breeding and quite frankly his one mile preparation for this race. The big filly Havre de Grace looks good on paper, but her training this week as been suspect. That leaves Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out at 6-1 odds.

Kelso, Kardashian And Other Breeders' Cup Thoughts, Comments and Questions

After the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series Friday night and the St. Louis Rams defeated the Saints Sunday, I found myself looking through the Breeders’ Cup past performances double-checking there were any Missouri-breds or Fairmont Park ship-ins I missed… Trying to watch the Breeders’ Cup draw reminded me of days holding horse after horse while they were

being shod, proof reading and my doctor's waiting room… The Breeders’ Cup post position draw is another case of the book being much better than the movie… When asked at dinner who was the best Breeders’ Cup story this year, this blogger responded with Classic contender Flat Out, 70-year trainer Charles "Scooter" Dickey (photo) and wife Dana. Win the $5 million Classic or not, it will be difficult to match Scooter’s post Jockey Club Gold Cup when the emotions kept him from initial TV interview. Dana is recovering from a serious illness this year… I remind some angry Tweeters that the morning line is supposed to be the line maker’s prediction of how the public will bet the race. It is not supposed to be the line maker’s order of finish probabilities… This bloggers favorite Breeders’ Cup moment: Tiznow and Giant’s Causeway turning around a very bad day at the races with their $140.80 exacta… Not to dis on Goldikova’s pursuit of four consecutive wins in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but Kelso winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup five times from 1960-64 is the cake taker…

Cold Play
The saddle towels for the first Breeders’ Cup at Hollywood Park were all yellow… ESPN/NBC analysts Jerry Bailey has won a record 15 Breeders’ Cup races. Leading active jockey in same category: Mike Smith with 13 trips to the Breeders’ Cup winners’ circle… This blogger’s least favorite Breeders’ Cup moment excluding injuries and trajedies: Zenyatta losing her first career race to Blame in the 2010 Classic. I see that race now and think to myself that it surely must have been longer than a year ago… Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien invades the United States again. This summer, he completed a Grade 1 double at Arlington Park when he won the Arlington Million with Cape Blanco (Ire) and the Secretariat Stakes with Irish Derby (G1) winner Treasure Beach (Ire)… Biggest disappointment of the week: Uncle Mo in the Classic or the Kim Kardashian marriage.

The Graduates
Stable mates and Classic foes Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty both ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. Uncle Mo won the 2010 Juvenile to finish the year undefeated and was eventually named the divisional champion. Stay Thirsty finished fifth in the 09 Juvenile before winning the 2010 Gotham and Travers Stakes… Shared Account, Uncle Mo, Goldikova, Big Drama, Eldaafer and Chamberlain Bridge return to the Breeders’ Cup as winners of Breeders’ Cup races last year. They are trying to join only eleven other thoroughbreds with multiple Breeders' Cup wins.

Long Grudge Match
Gio Ponti was second to Goldikova last year and returns again in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Longer Grudge Match: Courageous Cat returns to the Mile for the first time since running second to Goldikova two years ago. Longest Grudge Match: Eldaafer will have to defend his title in the Marathon against A.U. Miner and Giant Oak, fourth and fifth-place finishers last year respectively. Should all three start in the Marathon again this year, they will have run 10-1/2 miles in the two races between them... More Grudge Match: Midday returns to avenge her runner-up finish in last year's Filly and Mare Turf to Shared Account, also returning in this year's race.

Ouija Board Says
The great Ouija Board is the only horse to win the same Breeders’ Cup race twice in non consecutive years with a loss in the race in between. Ouija Board won the 2004 and 2006 Filly and Mare Turf but was second in that race in 2005. Da Hoss won the 1996 and 1998 Mile but missed the 1997 version of the race. California Flag tries to match Ouija Board after winning the Turf Sprint in 2009 and finishing 8th in that race last year.

Returning Stars Help Fill Zenyatta Void

Zenyatta, as she always does – present or not – stole the show again Monday night at the Eclipse Awards held at the Fontainebleau Miami Beach Hotel ballroom in Florida as she was named Horse of the Year, and Champion Older Female. Her ownership, training, management and daily care team was also recognized with a Special Eclipse Award for managing her historic 2010 campaign and making her so accessible to her fans.

It was her third attempt at Horse of the Year after being a finalist in both 2008 when losing to Curlin and last year when Rachel Alexandra took home the golden Eclipse Award. At age six, she is the oldest Horse of Year honoree since Cigar in 1996. Only Exterminator in 1922, Kelso in 1964 (both age seven) and John Henry in 1984 at age nine, have been older. Zenyatta is only the 11th female to be named North American Horse of the Year since the award was first given to Hanover in 1887.

Although there were cries from the audience to owner Jerry Moss to “bring her back,” Moss assured the crowd and racing that she was very comfortable in her new home at Lane’s End Farm in Kentucky. Moss later told TVG’s Christine Olivares that no decision has yet been made on who Zenyatta will be bred to this year, but a decision will be coming soon.

There will be a large gap left in racing with the departure of Zenyatta, but there was much encouraging news from the camps of other Eclipse Award winners.

Shane Ryan of Castleton Lyons, the owner of the owner of Champion Male Turf Horse Gio Ponti, said they are “looking forward to 2011 [with Gio Ponti] and maybe we can get that Breeders’ Cup victory eventually.” Gio Ponti finished second to Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic and again second to Goldikova this year in the Breeder’s Cup Turf Mile.

Trainer Todd Pletcher accepted the Eclipse Award for Goldikova and mentioned that she will soon return to training and a possible run at her fourth consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile. Only ten horses have won two Breeders’ Cup races.

Perhaps the best rivalry of 2009 came from the 3-year-old filly division headed by Eclipse Award winner Blind Luck. The other two divisional finalist, Evening Jewel and Havre de Grace, each finished second twice behind Blind Luck. Evening Jewel lost by a nose both times. Havre de Grace lost by a nose and a neck but came back to defeat Blind Luck in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes.

Facing older mares for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, Blind Luck was second and Havre de Grace third behind winner Unrivaled Bell.

But the good news is that all three, Blind Luck, Evening Jewel and Havre de Grace, will be back again in 2011 to resume their rivalries.

Even in the long term, there seems to be promise. Michael Repole, owner of Champion 2-Year-Old Male Uncle Mo directed some of his acceptance speech comments directly to racing fans saying, “If Uncle Mo lives up to my dreams, I promise you. he will live up to yours.” While Uncle Mo has the rugged trail to and possibly through the Triple Crown season ahead of him, here’s hoping Repole was hinting that early retirement of his promising star would not be in the plans if the success continues for Uncle Mo.

Of course the financial incentives once offered by the breeding industry to entice early retirement are certainly not at the level they were some five or ten years ago. The most expensive stallions to retire this year are Blame, Lookin at Lucky and Quality Road, all with $35,000 stud fees. It has not been that long since those caliber of horses stood in the $50,000 - $75,000 range and at times higher.

Last year Blame won $3.7 million on the track and will have to breed 108 mares this season to match that income. However, approaching that number will be no challenge, even in the current economic environment in the breeding industry.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver will have to breed just 85 mares at his 2011 stud fee of $20,000 to reach his 2010 income of $1.7 million while Lookin at Lucky will have to breed just 58 mares at $35,000 each to reach his more than $2 million in earnings last year.

For fillies and mares, the numbers are much more defining. Zenyatta made $1.2 million last year and more than $7.4 million in her three year racing career. Any significant earning potential as a broodmare for her is more than two years away in the summer yearling sales. Although it is doubtful owners Jerry and Ann Moss have any concern about her current earning power.

Last year Blind Luck made some $1.7 million on the track, so there is little financial incentive from the breeders to entice her off the race track and into retirement or for her current owners to switch careers.

Whether it is the lull in the breeding industry economics or a genuine commitment to fans that keeps more thoroughbred stars on the track, I’m not sure there is a clear cut answer – as naïve as that may seem. But for the time, I am grateful we have so many of last year’s Eclipse Award winners coming back 2012. With the departure of Zenyatta, we going to need all of them.

Queens and Quicksters Will Carry Female Banner in Saturday Breeders' Cup Races

Last year may have been the classic year of the female with Rachel Alexandra named Horse of the Year, the unbeaten Zenyatta winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1), and Goldikova taking her second consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile (gr. 1). But I’m not sure the female dominance is over. At least there is a very good chance that the Friday filly and mare Breeders’ Cup spotlight may continue to have female focus Saturday as well during the Nov. 5-6 championship races.

Races for fillies and mares plus the Breeders' Cup Marathon, make up the Friday, Nov. 5 Breeders’ Cup card highlighted by the grade 1 Ladies Classic. The eight Breeders’ Cup races Saturday are either restricted to colts and geldings, like the Juvenile races, or open like the Classic, Mile and others.

Zenyatta will obviously be the large focus for the day as she defends her title in $5 million Classic by attempting to extend her consecutive winning streak to a record 20 races. She is expected to be the betting favorite and will without doubt be the star of ESPN Saturday telecast at least until the running of the Classic. (She is already featured as one of the first five menu items on the Breeders’ Cup home page alongside merchandise, tickets, nominations and Breeders’ Cup 360.) A Zenyatta victory will add historical significance to the 2010 Breeders’ Cup and her legacy. The Classic is also expected to be her final career race before retirement.

What Zenyatta has been to North American horse racing fans through the last three years, Goldikova has been to European fans. While Goldikova does not have the winning streak Zenyatta does, her 12 wins from 17 career starts includes 10 group 1 or grade 1 wins. She has won the last three runnings of the Prix Rothschild (gr. 1), and defeated a field of 16 males in her last start while winning the Prix de la Forêt (gr. 1) at Longchamp Oct. 3. Her next triple attempt comes in the grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Mile when she tries to surpass Mile legends Miesque, Lure and Da Hoss who are the only two-time winners of the race.

Like Zenyatta, Goldikova will be the favorite and the Breeders’ Cup Mile is also her likely swan song.

Unlike Zenyatta and Goldikova, however, the fillies and mares will rely on a numbered attack in a wide open Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (gr. 1) on the Saturday card. Empressive Lady, Czechers, Melito, Rose Catherine and Unzip Me are the current fillies and mares likely for the Turf Sprint.

Rose Catherine and Unzip Me will have the best chance to topple the colts and gelding in the Turf Sprint which will be modified significantly in distance from the two previous versions of the race at Santa Anita. While defending champion California Flag is back, he will lose a furlong and a-half in distance on the Churchill Downs turf, which of course, also has no downhill start like the race featured over the Santa Anita turf course in 2008-’09. The favorite should be Chamberlain Bridge, recent winner of the Arlington Turf Sprint at Arlington Park, but Rose Catherine and Unzip Me both have had their share of victories this year.

Rose Catherine has won four consecutive races including The Turf Amazon Stakes at Parx Racing at Philadephip Park Sept. 25. The Todd Pletcher-trained 3-year-old filly will be making her second Breeders’ Cup appreance after finishing third behind Tapitsfly in the Juvenile Filly Turf last year.

Unzip Me, a 4-year-old filly, has won five turf sprint stakes including the grade 3 Sen. Ken Maddy Handicap at Hollywood Park on Sept. 30 in her most recent start.

While both Zenyatta and Goldikova have big challenges ahead before they hit the winners’ circle following their respective Breeders’ Cup races, their victories may be considered likely – but far from certain. The girls in the Turf Sprint will probably have a much bigger job to do to hit the line first as well. But they’ll have the spotlight and the opportunity to make 2010 the year of female again in the thoroughbred world.

Be Careful What You Wish For? Not So Much Perhaps.

Nearly half way through 2010, it is an interesting time to evaluate how the year is going for thoroughbred racing and the fans. The Triple Crown is now complete, Zenyatta (photo, right) and Rachel Alexandra have both raced multiple times as has 2009 stars Quality Road, Gio Ponti, Blink Luck, Lookin at Lucky, Goldikova among others.

While the stars and the sport have had some setbacks, it appears we are doing pretty well getting what we might have wished.

The two obvious drawbacks so far in 2010, are that we have not seen the Rachel Alexandra versus Zenyatta dream race we all have been wishing for. Nor did this crop of 3-year-olds provide much of a Triple Crown. I'm sure Rachel Alexandra's two losses to start the year had a damper on a wish list or two, but that will be addressed later.

With the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands, the Preakness, the Belmont Stakes and all the races leading up to the Triple Crown in the Spring, the 3-year-olds are the natural stars each year. Things were looking up for the group in late April when Eskendereya was coming into the Derby as the heavy favorite with eye-catching victories in the Fountain of Youth Stakes in Florida and Wood Memorial in New York. Meanwhile, 2009 Champion 2-Year-Old Looking at Lucky had lost some of his luster with a series of hard-luck performances, one of which resulted in a third place finish in the Santa Anita Derby just prior to going to Kentucky.

Eskendereya suffered a career ending injury before the Derby and Looking at Lucky again endured traffic problems in the Derby and finished sixth. Derby winner Super Saver came back to run a dull eighth in the Preakness behind a rebounding victory by Lookin at Lucky, but neither went on to the Belmont Stakes. Belmont favorite Ice Box threw a clunker in New York while the somewhat miscellaneous Drosselmeyer took the third leg of the Triple Crown.

Regarding Zenyatta, it is important to remember that at the end of last year, the Champion Older Female and Breeders' Cup Classic (gr. 1) winner was in the middle of a retirement tour. What we have instead from the undefeated mare is three more grade 1 wins in 2010 and a significant historical event in racing.

Her third win the Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park last week, gave her 17 straight wins and moved Zenyatta past Citation, Cigar, and Mister Frisky for the most consecutive wins in modern times in races not restricted to state-breds.

If you had asked most in January if they would have rather have a Triple Crown winner or an undefeated Zenyatta with the record in hand in mid-June, I'm sure many would take Zenyatta and her last three races. There is an opportunity for a Triple Crown winner every year, however difficult the challenge may be. But a Zenyatta comes along once in a generation.

Rachel Alexandra, on the other hand, has not quite had the same year in terms of meeting expectations. The 2009 Horse of the Year lost her first two starts in 2010 at Fair Grounds in New Orleans and then again at Churchill Downs. Although she bounced back to win the Fleur de Lis (gr. 2) Saturday while showing signs of her old self, the two defeats against seemingly sub-par competition had fans speculating about her retirement and wishing she was the Rachel Alexandra of 2009.

TVG Network's The Finish Line however, produced an interesting graphic that shows a different take on her first few races of this year. When comparing her Beyer Speed Figures from 2010 to her first starts last year, they are almost identical. And a case can be made that her competition in the New Orleans Ladies and La Troienne (gr. 2) was much stiffer than what she faced last year in the first six months. And Rachel Alexandra was carrying three to four pounds more in her 2010 starts comparatively speaking.



So if you were wishing that Rachel Alexandra would have a similar year this year compared to last, you may be getting what you wished. In fact, the argument can be made that she may be on track for perhaps an even better year in 2010. The list of great race mares that stumbled at some point in their career only to go on to further greatness is a long one indeed.

Paseana finished second in her first two starts of 1993. Six graded wins would follow during her career. Heavenly Prize was second in the '94 Breeders' Cup Distaff (gr. 1) and the '95 ungraded Oaklawn Park Breeders' Cup Handicap before rattling off four consecutive grade 1 wins. There are plenty of more dramatic losing streaks in the past performances of other great race mares - a sorority in which Rachel Alexandra already belongs.

Gio Ponti, the Champion Male Turf Horse of 2009, has been a bit of a disappointed this year, but he may be suffering effects of an aggressive effort to get him to and return from the taxing Dubai World Cup (gr. 1) in March. Gio Ponti began the year with a very disappointing second in the ungraded Tampa Bay Stakes then traveled halfway around the world to run in the $10 million Dubai World Cup in which he ran a credible fourth over an unfamiliar Tapeta racing surface.

The strain the Dubai journey can put on a North American thoroughbred has been well documented, so his second in the grade 1 Manhattan at Belmont Park June 5 can easily be forgiven. Two seconds and a fourth do little to convince that Gio Ponti has no chance returning to some resemblance of his 2009 form.

Champion 2-Year-Old Filly She Be Wild was injured just before the Kentucky Oaks, but her nemesis, Blind Luck, continued to fly the banner for the strong class of fillies by winning the Oaks instead.

Champion 3-Year-old Male Summer Bird, Champion Sprinter Kodiak Kowboy and Champion Female Sprinter Indian Blessing are also in retirement. But the majority of last year’s class of champions and stars have returned and are still running six months into 2010.

Certainly Quality Road, Mine That Bird, Musket Man and Rachel Alexandra are carrying the torch of a sophomore class much criticized throughout last year. Quality Road just won the Metropolitan Mile (gr. 1) after a record-breaking performance the Donn Handicap (gr. I) in February at Gulfstream Park – a race in which he broke his own 1-1/8 mile track record that he set in the 2009 Florida Derby (gr. I).
While Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird has yet to start this year, he looks to be training well after being moved to the barn of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas. After several impressive works at Churchill Downs, Lukas has modified his ambitions above an allowance race return for Mine That Bird and now says he is Whitney Handicap (gr. 1) bound in early August at Saratoga.

Despite our wishes and hopes as the year began, I'm not sure we could have expected much more out of the class of 2009 to return and impact racing more than they have this year. And, though the 2010 3-year-old male crop appears to be marginal at best, they did deliver some the best television ratings for horse racing in recent memory for the Kentucky Derby and solid numbers in the Preakness as well. They are a slow group, but they seem to have some charisma and their mediocrity appears to have produced at least a somewhat popular level of competition. Remember, the year is not even 50% complete. That leaves more than six months for a star to appear ala late 3-year-old bloomers and Breeders' Cup Classic winners Proud Truth, Concern or Tiznow.

And if not - I'd say we're still doing pretty good with our wish list.

Zenyatta, Goldikova Among Breeders' Cup Favorites

Mike Watchmaker with Daily Racing Form has published his most recent Breeders' Cup Top 10 With Odds Thursday as we are now just more than two weeks away from the Nov. 6-7 championships.

Producing a morning line is not only an exercise in handicapping and mathmatics but human behavior as well. A proper morning line is one individuals prediction of how the public will perceive and then wager on a race and Watchmaker is among the best at this craft. A good morning line is a very useful handicapping tool for beginner and expert handicapper alike because it offers a good starting point for the novice and an invaluable money management tool for the more experienced player.


With that in mind it is no surprise that Watchmaker has Zenyatta (photo) listed as the 6-to-5 favorite should she run in the $2 million Ladies Classic (gr. 1). The undefeated mare may even slip to even money should her connections decide to keep her in her division.

If Zenyatta runs in the Classic, Watchmaker has her as the 4-to-1 second choice behind European star and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (gr. 1) winner Rip Van Winkle who is at 7-2. Zenyatta's odds must be good news to European punters who see older mares compete against males much more frequently on the other side of the Atlantic. It will certainly be good news for those Zenyatta fans who will bet her anyway and are used to getting less than even money on the great mare. Getting 4-1 on her at Santa Anita will seem like Christmas to them.

The longest shot in the Classic according to Watchmaker's current line is none other than Mine That Bird at 15-1. The last Derby winner to take the Classic and Derby in the same year was Unbridled who pulled off the double in 1990. Interestingly, he went to post in the Classic at 6-1 with his only victory between the Derby and the Breeders' Cup coming in an allowance race at Arlington that year.

Of the fourteen Breeders' Cup races, Watchmaker gave odds of less than 2-1 to only four horses. Zenyatta in the Ladies Classic; Goldikova, at 7-5 in the Mile and Conduit in the Turf and Zensational in the Sprint, both at 8-5.

Goldikova will try to join Miesque in 1987-'88, Lure in 1992-'93 and Da Hoss in 1996 and '98 as the only two-time winners of the Breeders' Cup Mile. She will again be the strong favorite despite finishing third in her last race in the Prix de la Foret (Fr-gr. 1) on Oct. 3 at Longchamp. This year she has also won the Prix Rothschild (gr. 1) for the second conseutive year, the Prix du Haras de Fresnay-le-Buffard-Jacques Le Marois (gr. 1), and the grade 1 Etihad Airways Falmouth Stakes.

Conduit will also be looking for a Breeders' Cup repeat, having won the Breeders' Cup Turf (gr. 1) last year at Santa Anita. Only High Chaparral in 2002-'03 has won two Turfs, and even he finished in a dead with Johar the second year. In his last race he was fourth in Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (gr. 1) on Oct. 4 at Longchamp but being an also ran in the "Arc" is not necessarily a bad thing in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Daylami won the 1999 Breeders' Cup Turf after finishing ninth in the Arc de Triomphe. His victory in the King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (gr. 1) and the departure of Rip Van Winkle, Mastercraftsman and Gio Ponti to the Classic will also help keep his odds low.

My sentimental favorite in the Turf, Presious Passion is the fourth choice at 8-1 behind Dar Re Mi at 5-1 and Spanish Moon at 6-1.

Zensational will not be going for a repeat in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, but his trainer Bob Baffert is going for a three-peat after winning the race the last two years with Midnight Lute. The flashy grey Zensational will be looking for his four consecutive grade 1 win however, having won the Bing Crosby Stakes (gr. 1) and Pat O'Brien (gr. 1)at Del Mar and the Triple Bend Handicap (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park this year.

Keep in mind that as horses leave and enter these races and as information changes, so to will any good morning line. Many of these races will have full gates of 14 so Watchmakers odds are technically not a morning line, but I've used the term for discussion sake. Also note that the official morning line will be made by a racing official with the Oak Tree Racing Association after entries close for these races.