Despite Training Trends, Holy Bull Remains Important Step On Kentucky Derby Trail

A couple of things about the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) from an historical point of view may help put this weekend’s early Derby prep into perspective. The $400,000 Holy Bull will be run Sunday at Gulfstream Park with a field of six going the one-turn mile. The lead story line for this year’s Holy Bull Stakes is the 2012 debut of Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) winner and champion 2-year-old male Hansen (photo right).

Even if Hansen is successful in his debut, there have been few Holy Bull winners who also went on to don the blanket of roses in the winners’ circle of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1). The only Holy Bull winners to also win the Kentucky Derby later were Barbaro in 2006 (photo below left) and Go For Gin in 1994 but others have faired well enough at Churchill Downs.

First run in 1990 as The Preview Stakes, the Holy Bull was created to replace the Flamingo Stakes that had been run at then closed Hialeah race track. The Holy Bull has been run at three different distances in its more than 20-year history, going as far as 1-1/8 miles, to 1-1/16 miles, to its current distance of one mile in various orders and years.

The shortened distance makes the Holy Bull perhaps a more attractive prep race for horses that are considering the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown and need or want at least three starts to prepare for and attempt to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The Holy Bull is part of a series of graded races at Gulfstream Park for 3-year-olds that also includes the Feb. 26 Fountain of Youth (gr. II) at 1-1/16 miles and the 1-1/8 mile Florida Derby (gr. 1) on Mar. 31. This year the Kentucky Derby will be run May 5.

The 2011 Holy Bull Stakes produced two eventual Kentucky Derby starters in Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Dialed In gave trainer Nick Zito his record third victory in the Holy Bull Stakes last year (along with Go For Gin and Suave Prospect in 1995). Dialed In later won the Florida Derby last year before finishing a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby.

Third in last year’s Holy Bull, Mucho Macho Man would go on to also run third in the Kentucky Derby and join Animal Kingdom and Shackleford as the only horses to start in all three Triple Crown races last year. Mucho Macho Man was sixth in the Preakness (gr. I) and seventh in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).

West Side Bernie, third in the 2009 Holy Bull Stakes; and Homeboy Kris, third a year later in the Holy Bull, would both make the Kentucky Derby but neither fared well in their Run for the Roses. West Side Bernie was ninth behind Mine That Bird and Homeboy Kris was 16th in the Derby won by Super Saver.

Until last year when two Holy Bull starters made it the Kentucky Derby, the Holy Bull has not had a strong connection to the Derby. Recent Derby winning horsemen have leaned toward starting their promising sophomores only twice before the Kentucky Derby and closer to the race than the late January Holy Bull. Of the last five Kentucky Derby winners since Barbaro, all started in only two Kentucky Derby prep races with only Mine That Bird starting as early as February. The 2009 Derby winner began his 3-year-old year running second in the $100,000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park on Feb. 28.

Animal Kingdom last year, Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008) and Street Sense (2007) all made their first starts of their respective years in March preceding their Kentucky Derby wins.

Despite being the expected heavy favorite, a victory in Sunday’s Holy Bull is certainly not a necessity for Hansen. His winner’s check of $600,000 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile insures him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate if he can stay sound and competitive. The Derby is limited to 20 starters with earnings in graded races used to determine the eligible entrants. But the competition only gets tougher as the Derby draws near and it is doubtful that trainer Mike Maker and owners Dr. Hansen Kendall and Sky Chai Racing want to go to Louisville based only on last year’s accomplishments.

A victory in the Holy Bull would be much more impactful for any of the other five starters, of which none have any graded earnings. The $240,000 first-place check in the Holy Bull would place any of the other five in the top ten on the current list of 3-year-olds with graded earnings and likely enough to eventually qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Currently $105,000 in graded earnings makes the top 20, but that is likely to be a very fluid number during the next three months before those Derby slots are awarded.

Second and third-place checks of $80,000 and $40,000 in the Holy Bull respectively will leave plenty of work for those starting this race with a zero balance in their graded stakes bankrolls – but every little bit may help. West Side Bernie, Homeboy Kris and Mucho Macho Man have proven that a third in the late January Holy Bull does not qualify nor disqualify one from making it to Kentucky for the first Saturday in May.

If nothing else, a good performance in the Holy Bull Sunday remains important in creative rose colored hopeds for these six 3-year-olds, their connections and their quest to make it the prestigious Kentucky Derby.

In Pursuit of the Kentucky Derby Formula

Is there a formula for winning the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1)?

Certainly, there is no proven recipe for breeders to produce a Kentucky Derby winner. The last ten Kentucky Derby winners have been sired by nine different stallions. The Maria’s Mon is the only stallion during that span to have sired two winners having sired 2001 Derby winner Monarchos and last year’s winner Super Saver. That in itself put Maria’s Mon (photo right) on an elite list with only 18 other stallions that have produced more than one Kentucky Derby winner. Before Maria’s Mon, the most recent stallions with two Derby winners were Alydar (Alysheba, 1987, Strike The Gold, ’91) and Halo (Sunny’s Halo, ’83 and Sunday Silence, ’89). Falsetto, Virgil, Sir Gallahad III and Bull Lea all sired three Kentucky Derby winners with others stallions with two.

On the bottom side of the last ten Derby winnering pedigrees, only Dixieland Band is listed on as the dam’s sire on more than one. The former Lane’s End stallion sired Regal Band, the dam of Monarchos; and Street Sense's mother Bedazzle.

There is no Kentucky Derby winning map for owners either. Owners spent some $400 million on yearling’s at Keeneland and Fasig-Tipton Company public yearling auctions in 2008 in search of a 2010 Kentucky Derby winner. The next year they spent an addition $64 million on two-year-olds in training at three additional Fasig-Tipton Sales Florida, Maryland and Texas. Unfortunately for all of them, the eventual winner of the 2010 Kentucky Derby would be the home-bred Super Saver – bred and raised by his owners at their WinStar Farm in Versailles, Kentucky.

Since creating his Godolphin Stable in 1992, perhaps no one has invested more money in thoroughbred horse racing than Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. He has been among the leading buyers at nearly every major thoroughbred auction in the world, spending hundreds of millions of dollars. Sheikh Mohammed also has major racing operations in Europe, North America, Japan and in his home of Dubai, UAE. His Darley has become a massive international breeding operation with farms in Kentucky, England, Dubai, Japan and Australia. Since 1992, Sheikh Mohammed has owned or was in partnership on nine Kentucky Derby starters. His best finish has be sixth with China Bowl in 2000. Money can't buy you love or a Kentucky Derby winner.

What about trainers then? Surely there must be a plan that works well for the conditioners. No, but there seems to at least be some clues. Since Lil E. Tee won the Kentucky Derby in 1992, every Derby winner has shared at least three criteria. They all raced as a two-year and had won their first race by January of their 3-year-old year. At times, the third principal is out of the trainer’s control. But every winner of those 19 Kentucky Derbies has a sharp race, (defined as finishing fourth or better and within five lengths or less lengths from the winner) in their start just previous to the Kentucky Derby.

There have been some other guidelines met by nearly all of the previous 19 Kentucky Derby winners, but not quite. Since 1992, only 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm did not run in a two-turn race by February of his 3-year-old year. Only Mine That Bird (2010) and War Emblem (2002) had not recorded at least a 90 Beyer Speed Figure before February and only Funny Cide (2003) and Sea Hero (1993) had not been first or second in a two-turn race by March.

Between Lil E. Tee in 1992 and Barbaro in 2006, every Kentucky Derby winner had at least three starts before the Derby during their three-year-old year. Since then, Street Sense (‘07), Big Brown (‘08), Mine That Bird and Super Saver, came to Churchill Downs in consecutive years with only two starts in their respective sophomore campaigns.

During the last four years, Calvin Borel seems to have the jockey secret down. The rail-hugging Borel has now won three of the last four Kentucky Derbies with Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Super Saver. In the last 19 years, only Kent Desormeaux (photo left) has won the Derby three times winning with Real Quiet (1989) Fusaichi Pegasus (2001) and Big Brown. Gary Stevens won three Kentucky Derbies going back to his first aboard Winning Colors in 1988. Since, he won the Run for the Roses with Thunder Gulch (’95) and Silver Charm (’97).

Eddie Arcaro and Bill Hartack have the record for most Kentucky Derby wins with five each while Bill Shoemaker has four. Arcaro won with Lawrin, Whirlaway, Hoop Jr., Citation and Hill Gail between 1938 and 1952. Hartack won the Iron Liege, Venetian Way, Decidedly, Northern Dancer and Majestic Prince from 1957 through ’69. Shoemaker won with Swaps, Tomy Lee, Lucky Debonair and Ferdinand from 1955 through 1986.

There are no paths, plans or recipes that can guarantee a Kentucky Derby winner. Watching the gut wrenching decisions of owners and trainers to withdraw horses like Toby’s Corner, The Factor and To Honor and Serve to name a few, illustrates that getting to the Kentucky Derby is a monumental task. And if plans existed and were flawlessly executed, the pull of a bad pill at the post position draw or a second, third, or fourth bump in the first half-mile of the race can shatter all plans and flawless executions.

Perhaps that is what makes it the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Baffling Kentucky Derby Group Could Produce Some High Odds

As the Spring season of prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands comes to a close (it officially ends with the Derby Trial (gr. 3) at Churchill Downs, Saturday, before Apr. 30) it has been no secret that this group of 3-year-old thoroughbreds have been difficult to decipher and will be equally, if not more challenging to handicap on the first Saturday in May.

Dialed In will likely be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby this year and the win price may be even higher than some expect. Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form currently has Dialed In as the favorite at 4-1 odds, just ahead of Uncle Mo at 6-1, Nehro at 8-1 and Toby’s Corner and Archarcharch at 10-1. There is also plenty of chat on Twitter, Facebook and other horse racing blogs and columns about the possibility that Dialed In may even go as high as 5-1.

I see no reason why the favorite this year can’t be as high as 6-1. The field is certainly befuddling enough with only Toby’s Corner and Dialed In among the probably Kentucky Derby starters with more than one victory in a graded prep race this year. Even those two were not the favorites in their respective last starts. Dialed In was the second choice at 2.90-1 behind favored Soldat at 1.5-1 in his Florida Derby victory and Toby’s Corner was the 8.70-1 second choice behind 1-10 Uncle Mo while winning the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1).

The 4-1 mark also seems to be the natural over-under point for the Kentucky Derbies run since the field wagers were eliminated in 2001. Prior to that, wagering on the Run for the Roses was limited to 14 betting interests because of the technological limitations of that time. In the ten Kentucky Derbies since, the favorite has been below 4-1 five times and the above 4-1 five times.

Last year, Lookin at Lucky was the highest price favorite during that time at 6.30-1. His rough trips in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) at Oaklawn and the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) combined with his number one post position in Kentucky, of course, contributed to the high price. But also remember that undefeated Barbaro was just a little more popular as the favorite in the 2006 Kentucky Derby at 6.10-1. 2002 Derby favorite Came Home was also 6-1 so having a Derby favorite with odds that high may not be such an anomaly - especially with as many as 20 betting interest in modern Kentucky Derbies.

The most popular horse in the last ten runnings of the Kentucky Derby was Point Given at 1.8-1 in 2001. With slightly less betting appeal were Big Brown in 2008 at 2.40-1; Empire Maker in 2003 at 2.50-1; and Bellamy Road in 2005 at 2.60-1. Empire Maker and Point Given were also in the only two Kentucky Derbies during that span with less than 18 wagering interests. There were 16 betting interests in 2003 and 17 in 2001.

Give credit where it is due to those four however. Point Given had romped through southern California’s San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Bellamy Road came into the Derby off of a 14-1/2 length win the Wood Memorial while Empire Maker had won both the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. Big Brown overcame a bad post position in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) breaking from the 12 gate, but still won easily by five lengths.

Uncle Mo was certainly on his way to that kind of popularity this year before his disappointing third-place finish in the Wood. He stumbled at the start and grabbed a front hoof in that race, but trainer Todd Pletcher said neither was an excuse. Two days later, it is determined that Uncle Mo had a gastrointestinal infection but again, there is no way of knowing if that affected his race in the Wood.

Horses like Archarcharch, Nehro, Toby's Corner, Mucho Macho Man and frankly, quite a few others also have a chance to take some unpredicted late action. Soldat certainly has the credentials to regain some respect in the weeks leading up to the Derby, just as prep race upset winners Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed and Pants on Fire have the opportunity to build on their races.

Regardless of the many excuses and reasons that have seemed to plague this group headed for the Kentucky Derby, it is almost certain that the post time favorite is going to be at a healthy price. Placing 4-1 odds on Dialed In seems perfectly reasonable to me, as it does many others opinionating throughout the social media circles and horse racing journals and papers.

But with the uncertainty that seems to follow these 3-year-olds, it would also not be too surprising to see the favorite as high as 6-1.

Florida Win Is No Requisite For Kentucky Fame

This Sunday, one of the premier prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) will be run in the grade 1 Florida Derby. Not only does the $1 million purse provide plenty of incentive to those connections needing graded stakes money to qualify their colt for the Run for the Roses, but the 1-1/8 distance, calendar placement and tradition also adds to the races allure.

Run just five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, this Florida Derby looks to have one of the deepest fields the race has offered in some time. Probable starters Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are all among leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby with all appearing in Paulick Report’s Vinery LTD Derby Index, a top ten ranking of Kentucky Derby contenders as ranked by 28 turf writers and thoroughbred racing bloggers throughout North America. Soldat is ranked second behind leader Uncle Mo with Dialed In tallying the third most votes. To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are ranked sixth and seventh respectively in the weekly poll.

Although Soldat, with his $510,000 in graded stakes earnings, is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby should he make it there, Stay Thirsty ($260,000), To Honor and Serve ($250,000) and Dialed In ($240,000) appear not to need more than a $50,000 fourth-place Florida Derby check that push them near the $300,000 mark believed to safely be enough to stamp a ticket to Louisville, Kentucky. But one can rest assured that the owners, trainers and jockeys in this race are thinking nothing short of the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle after the Florida Derby.

After all, since the Florida Derby was first run in 1953, ten winners have gone to take the Kentucky Derby including Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (’06), Monarchos (‘01), Thunder Gulch (1995), Unbridled (’90), Swale (’84), Spectacular Bid (’79), Forward Pass (’68), Northern Dancer (’64), Carry Back (’61) and Needles in 1956 (photo above). Of those, however, only Big Brown, Barbaro and Needles went directly from the Florida Derby to Kentucky.

Spectacular Bid, Forward Pass and Northern Dancer (photo left) all won the Bluegrass Stakes between their Florida and Kentucky victories and Tim Tam won the Derby Trial. Swale, Unbridled and Thunder Gulch also went to Lexington for the Blue Grass before the Derby, but finished second, third and fourth respectively in the Keeneland’s Bluegrass.

Monarchos, and Carry Back went to Aqueduct in New York to finish second in the Wood Memorial before going to Kentucky for their post race blanket of roses.

With the quality of the 2011 Florida Derby as high and deep as it is, one might also think a Florida Derby might be a must for Kentucky glory. However, nine Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Florida Derby but failed to win. Strike The Gold (’91), Cannonade (’74) and Venetian Way (’60) finished second in the Florida Derby before winning the big one in Kentucky. Foolish Pleasure (’75) and Iron Liege (’57) were third, while Go For Gin (’94) and Kaui King (’66) were both unplaced in Florida before their historical wins in Kentucky.

With five weeks remaining until the Kentucky Derby on May 7, the pressure is surely beginning to mount in the shed rows of those with aspirations of taking the coveted race so there is no need to heap on additional albatross of a must win in Florida Sunday. Florida Derby probables Bowman’s Causeway, Arch Traveler and perhaps Flashpoint need the $600,000 first-place check for the needed graded earnings for Derby consideration. But for Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty, the additional burden of a must-win is unnecessary.

That is unlikely to make much difference for their connections, however. Urgency is not a necessary ingredient for determination. And few run horse races to finish second.

Barbaro Brother Nicanor Tops Virginia Derby

One of the more interesting races this weekend will be the 12th running of the $750,000, grade 2 Virginia Derby from Colonial Downs in New Kent, Va. where Nicanor (photo) has been installed at the 7-2 morning line favorite in the 1-1/4 mile turf race.

Owned by Lael Stables and trained by Michael Matz, Nicanor did not race as a two year old, but collected a tenth and two second place finishes in his first three races of 2009, all on the dirt. After a switch to the turf, the three year old colt broke his maiden by 15 ¼ lengths at Delaware Park on May 13th and won an allowance by 1 ¾ lengths in his most recent start, also on grass. Jockey Jose Lezcano, who guided Summer Doldrums to victory in the ’07 Colonial Turf Cup, has the mount aboard Nicanor.

Trainer Jeff Mullins is returning to Colonial Downs with Battle of Hastings from his west cost base at Santa Anita. The British-bred Battle of Hastings won the grade 2, $500,000 Colonial Turf Cup in June at Colonial Downs and is the second choice in the morning line at 4-1. A double stakes winner in Great Britian before coming to the US to win the Balwin Stakes and the La Puente Stakes on the grass at Santa Anita, Battle of Hastings has won five of ten career starts and $474,592.

Trainer Bill Mott will try for his third Virginia Derby with Hold Me Back (photo), the winner of the grade 2 Lane's End Stakes at Turfway Park in mid-march and a dissapointing 12th in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum Brands. Kent Desormeaux will ride.

As usual the Virginia Derby is deep in talent with the first two finishers in the grade 2 Jefferson Cup at Churchills Downs also making the trip. Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin will saddle Jeff Cup winner Florentino and and George R. Arnold II brings El Crespo to try to avenge his runner-up finish in the Jefferson Cup.

The first and second place finishers in the June 13th Jefferson Cup (Gr. II) at Churchill Downs are next in line at 6-1. Owned by Darley Stable and trained by Kiaran McLaughlin, Florentino has been on the board in five of eight lifetime starts and has a bankroll of $167,312. Trained by George R. Arnold II, El Crespo, an A.P. Indy colt, finished second in that race by ¾ of a length behind Florentino. With an early race career that mirrors Florentino’s, El Crespo has finished on the board five times in eight starts with lifetime earnings of $167,326. Rider Alan Garcia, who won the ’08 Turf Cup atop Sailor’s Cap, will guide Florentino while Julien Leparoux, who rode Lime Rickey in this year’s Turf up, switches to El Crespo.

The second, third and fourth place finishers in the ’09 Turf Cup are back to challenge. Straight Story, Lime Rickey and Take The Points, one of two Todd Pletcher horses in the field, all seek revenge on Battle of Hastings. Straight Story missed by a head after going eight wide, while Lime Rickey and Take The Points both fell 1¼ lengths shy. Jockey Edgar Prado, who has three Virginia Derby wins, will pilot Take The Points.