Solid Cast Chase Super Derby History From A New Date And Time

For years, the Super Derby (gr. II) had the perfect spot on the calendar. It was the last major Derby of the year. It was traditionally run four weeks after the grade 1 Travers Stakes in Saratoga and five weeks or so before the Breeders’ Cup at the site de l'année.

Although the first Super Derby was run five years before the inaugural Breeders’ Cup, by the time Gate Dancer used the 1984 Super Derby victory to prep for his eventual third-place in the first Breeders’ Cup Classic, the Super Derby had already achieved grade 1 status. Two of the first four winners of Louisiana Downs’ marquee race were champion Temperence Hill (photo above right) and Kentucky Derby winner Sunny’s Halo. In later years, horses such as Alysheba (1987), Sunday Silence (’89), Unbridled (’90) and Tiznow in 2000 had the Super Derby on their championship resumes.

But those were the days when the Super Derby was grade 1 with a $1,000,000 purse. Since 2002 the race has been grade 2 and through the years the purse has dropped to $500,000 and the distance shortened by a furlong to 1-1/8 miles.

A few years ago, the folks at Parx Racing in Pennsylvania boosted the purse of their Pennsylvania Derby (gr. 2) to $1 million, prompting officials at Louisiana Downs to surrender the once cherished spot on the calendars of 3-year-old thoroughbreds.

So Super Derby XXXII will be run Saturday instead of two weeks from now. The results, however, have been a bit unexpected as the 2011 renewal has attracted a large and competitive field of nine. Although it is not expected that the winner will be among the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a Super Derby victory may still convince respective owners and trainers the necessity of a trip to Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup.

From there, anything can happen.

In fact, Unbridled lost to Home at Last in the 1990 Super Derby, then bounced back to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic and be named champion 3-year-old colt or gelding that year. Concern was also second in the Super Derby, finishing just a nose behind Soul of the Matter in 1994. Concern would also bounce back to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but the class championship that year went to Holy Bull.

Blame, second to Regal Ransom in the 2009 Super Derby, will forever be the answer to the trivia question: “Who is the only horse to defeat Zenyatta” having done so in the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic. More importantly, Blame was named champion older horse after that historical win in the Classic 13 months after his Super Derby appearance.

Although Alysheba won his Super Derby in 1987, it also took him a year to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Finishing second to Alysheba in the 1988 Classic was Seeking the Gold, winner of the Super Derby that year.

In 1989, Sunday Silence became the first horse to win the Super Derby and Breeder’ Cup Classic in the same year. The almost black colt trained by Hall of Famer Charlie Whittingham was later honored as champion 3-year-old male and Horse of the Year.

Like Sunday Silence, Tiznow would also win the Super Derby, Breeders’ Cup Classic, a divisional championship and Horse of the Year at age three. Also like Alysheba and Blame before, Tiznow would win the Breeders’ Cup Classic as a 4-year-old. But unlike Alysheba, Tiznow and Blame missed on Horse of the Year at age four. Point Given was named 2001 Horse of the Year over Tiznow and Blame lost his 2010 golden Eclipse to Zenyatta.

The elephant in the blog now is: Can anybody in the 2011 Super Derby become a Breeders’ Cup Classic winner and perhaps a future champion?

One of the biggest assets this group of Super Derby starters has working for them are all other 3-year-old thoroughbreds in North America this year. There are no select few that seem head and shoulders above the rest of this division. Recent Travers Stakes (gr. I) winner Stay Thirsty appears to be the leader in the division despite that he has only one grade I win this season - the Travers two weeks ago.

Before the Travers, Stay Thirsty had victories in the grade 2 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct in March and the Jim Dandy, also grade 2, at the beginning of the Saratoga meeting this year. Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom is on the sidelines. Preakness winner Shackleford is winless in three starts since. Belmont winner Ruler On Ice has also failed to win since his big victory in June leg of the Triple Crown. Resorts Casino Haskell Invitational (gr. I) winner Coil floundered in the Travers.

Super Derby starters such as the Bob Baffert-trained Prayer for Relief (photo left), the 9-5 morning line favorite, are just not so far behind the divisional leaders so as to consider them out of reach. The Prayer for Relief has won all three of his races this year including the grade 3 Iowa and grade 2 West Virginia derbies in his last two races.



Alternation is the only other Super Derby starter this year with a graded stakes win on record having won the Peter Pan (gr. II) at Belmont Park in May before finishing fourth behind Stay Thirsty in the Jim Dandy.

Awesome Bet, winner of the $103,000 Barbaro Stakes at Delaware Park; and Trubs, winner of the $100,000 Prelude Stakes – the major local prep for the Super Derby – are just stakes winners today. The only stakes won by Super Derby starter Populist Politics, has been against other Louisiana-breds. They might be long shots to be get any championship notoriety this year, but all certainly have the potential to develop into something that can attract national attention at some point in their racing future.

Nine starters highlighted by the above mentioned favorites, make this a very deep and competitive Super Derby, especially considering this version is two weeks earlier than past. The quality and quantity of this vanguard must be a refreshing result to those in Louisiana Downs management who decided to move the Super Derby and today they look pretty smart.

But the Super Derby is a race with traditions and history steeped with Triple Crown race winners, Breeders’ Cup Classic winners and champions – both of the divisional and Horse of the Year varieties. It is also a race that has seen its graded status and purses drop while competition from derbies in Pennsylvania and Indiana rise. And now its lost its place on the calendar too.

Just don’t be surprised if the winner of this race is heard from down the line. Whether in 2011 or beyond, Super Derby graduates have a way of carving their way into more prestigious winners’ circles elseware.

Returning Stars Help Fill Zenyatta Void

Zenyatta, as she always does – present or not – stole the show again Monday night at the Eclipse Awards held at the Fontainebleau Miami Beach Hotel ballroom in Florida as she was named Horse of the Year, and Champion Older Female. Her ownership, training, management and daily care team was also recognized with a Special Eclipse Award for managing her historic 2010 campaign and making her so accessible to her fans.

It was her third attempt at Horse of the Year after being a finalist in both 2008 when losing to Curlin and last year when Rachel Alexandra took home the golden Eclipse Award. At age six, she is the oldest Horse of Year honoree since Cigar in 1996. Only Exterminator in 1922, Kelso in 1964 (both age seven) and John Henry in 1984 at age nine, have been older. Zenyatta is only the 11th female to be named North American Horse of the Year since the award was first given to Hanover in 1887.

Although there were cries from the audience to owner Jerry Moss to “bring her back,” Moss assured the crowd and racing that she was very comfortable in her new home at Lane’s End Farm in Kentucky. Moss later told TVG’s Christine Olivares that no decision has yet been made on who Zenyatta will be bred to this year, but a decision will be coming soon.

There will be a large gap left in racing with the departure of Zenyatta, but there was much encouraging news from the camps of other Eclipse Award winners.

Shane Ryan of Castleton Lyons, the owner of the owner of Champion Male Turf Horse Gio Ponti, said they are “looking forward to 2011 [with Gio Ponti] and maybe we can get that Breeders’ Cup victory eventually.” Gio Ponti finished second to Zenyatta in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Classic and again second to Goldikova this year in the Breeder’s Cup Turf Mile.

Trainer Todd Pletcher accepted the Eclipse Award for Goldikova and mentioned that she will soon return to training and a possible run at her fourth consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile. Only ten horses have won two Breeders’ Cup races.

Perhaps the best rivalry of 2009 came from the 3-year-old filly division headed by Eclipse Award winner Blind Luck. The other two divisional finalist, Evening Jewel and Havre de Grace, each finished second twice behind Blind Luck. Evening Jewel lost by a nose both times. Havre de Grace lost by a nose and a neck but came back to defeat Blind Luck in the Fitz Dixon Cotillion Stakes.

Facing older mares for the first time in the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic, Blind Luck was second and Havre de Grace third behind winner Unrivaled Bell.

But the good news is that all three, Blind Luck, Evening Jewel and Havre de Grace, will be back again in 2011 to resume their rivalries.

Even in the long term, there seems to be promise. Michael Repole, owner of Champion 2-Year-Old Male Uncle Mo directed some of his acceptance speech comments directly to racing fans saying, “If Uncle Mo lives up to my dreams, I promise you. he will live up to yours.” While Uncle Mo has the rugged trail to and possibly through the Triple Crown season ahead of him, here’s hoping Repole was hinting that early retirement of his promising star would not be in the plans if the success continues for Uncle Mo.

Of course the financial incentives once offered by the breeding industry to entice early retirement are certainly not at the level they were some five or ten years ago. The most expensive stallions to retire this year are Blame, Lookin at Lucky and Quality Road, all with $35,000 stud fees. It has not been that long since those caliber of horses stood in the $50,000 - $75,000 range and at times higher.

Last year Blame won $3.7 million on the track and will have to breed 108 mares this season to match that income. However, approaching that number will be no challenge, even in the current economic environment in the breeding industry.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver will have to breed just 85 mares at his 2011 stud fee of $20,000 to reach his 2010 income of $1.7 million while Lookin at Lucky will have to breed just 58 mares at $35,000 each to reach his more than $2 million in earnings last year.

For fillies and mares, the numbers are much more defining. Zenyatta made $1.2 million last year and more than $7.4 million in her three year racing career. Any significant earning potential as a broodmare for her is more than two years away in the summer yearling sales. Although it is doubtful owners Jerry and Ann Moss have any concern about her current earning power.

Last year Blind Luck made some $1.7 million on the track, so there is little financial incentive from the breeders to entice her off the race track and into retirement or for her current owners to switch careers.

Whether it is the lull in the breeding industry economics or a genuine commitment to fans that keeps more thoroughbred stars on the track, I’m not sure there is a clear cut answer – as naïve as that may seem. But for the time, I am grateful we have so many of last year’s Eclipse Award winners coming back 2012. With the departure of Zenyatta, we going to need all of them.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing

In a exclusive interview with The Brock Talk, Mr. Horse Racing discusses the highlights of 2010 and the prospects of the industry in 2011.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: What was the best about 2010?

Mr. Horse Racing: Zenyatta was by far the star of the year, if not the star of the decade here in North America. Watching her streak grow to 19 undefeated wins was a great thrill and brought recognition to the sport from such influential media as Oprah Winfrey’s O Magazine and 60 Minutes on CBS. Even in defeat, her Breeders’ Cup Classic loss to Blame is one of the greatest races of our generation.

I also think people underestimate the year Quality Road had. He began the year in a starting gate rehab program after his Jerry Springer/Maury Povich performance in which he tried to eat the Santa Anita starting gate and it’s crew before the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Quality Road returns to begin the year with three graded races and has the biggest image change since Tom Hanks left Bussom Buddies.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: What were the biggest disappointments of 2010?

Mr. Horse Racing: Other than the obvious being Zenyatta’s defeat in the aforementioned Breeders’ Cup Classic, there were four big disappointments in 2010. The other notable disappointment was Rachel Alexandra suffering defeats at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, Churchill Downs, Saratoga and thus retiring before the Breeders’ Cup. Number two: We have now gone two years without a Kentucky Derby champion winning a race after the Run For The Roses. Neither Super Saver nor Mine That Bird managed an appearance in the winner’s circle after winning the Derby. Number Three: Zenyatta losing her final race. Some would make this the biggest disappointment of the year, but at least she made it to the big stage with the streak and notched her place in horse racing history among those that brought horse racing to the general public. Difficult to say that her ultimate star power was a disappointment. And finally, number Four: There was no race between Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra. We had two chances this year. Thanks to Oaklawn Park president Charles Cella and his offer to write a big check if both appeared in the grade 1 Apple Blossom, there was a chance in April. The other missed opportunity came when Zenyatta’s connections decided not to ship to Saratoga for the grade 1 Personal Ensign Stakes in August. A decision that cost her a slam dunk as Horse of the Year.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: Will we have a Triple Crown winner this year?

Mr. Horse Racing: Without hope and optimism, there is no horse racing. But I can say two things about the Triple Crown. We have a good group that will represent the class of 2011 including Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo, Boys of Toscanova and To Honor and Serve. There are also some 20 others that are on watch lists throughout the industry. From what I’ve heard talking to Santa Claus and others, there were a lot of owners and trainers that had injury-free on the Christmas, Hanaka, and Festivus lists this year.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: We need another female jockey star in the sport. Any chances?

Mr. Horse Racing: First, let's recognize the progress women have made in recent years. Linda Rice won the training title at Saratoga in 2009 and was second to Todd Pletcher in 2010. Among the North America’s leading consignors at thoroughbred auctions are Murray Smith and Meg Levy. Women are becoming more prominent as owners as seen by Jenny Craig, Gretchen Jackson and Maggi Moss. Chantal Sutherland definitely has some star power as a jockey as does Inez Karlsson, a top ten rider at Arlington Park; and Rosemary B. Homeister, Jr., third in the jockey standings during the Churchill Downs winter meeting and a veteran making a courageous comeback after some personal challenges.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: Will thoroughbred racing see a sharp decline in interest after the departure of Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Lookin At Lucky, Blame, Quality Road and the likes?

Mr. Horse Racing: Simply put – No. Horse racing had some the best stars in recent memory carry it through one of the most difficult economic times in our nation’s history. Last year the Kentucky Derby had one of its biggest television ratings with Lookin at Lucky coming off a losing Spring campaign and Super Saver as a marginal favorite. Big crowds and large handles resulted in the New Jersey experiment at Monmouth Park and Churchill is now running on successful Friday night model still popular at Hollywood Park and many other tracks around the country. If the economy shows any hint of rebound, horse racing now has a base to benefit.

Dear Mr. Horse Racing: What were the worst decisions in 2010 that will have an impact on 2011?

Mr. Horse Racing: The decision of the Churchill Downs stewards not to scratch Life at Ten from the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic may have cost horse racing thousands of marginal fans. Jockey John Velasquez said on national television that he was not comfortable with the way she was warming up – an important pre-race note most likely missed by casual and novice racing fans. I hate to think of the number of sports book players waiting for their pre-empted college football game on ESPN, with open online wagering accounts, who bet on the favorite as a “why not wager”, only to see her break last and not run a jump. Say goodbye to a great number of those proflic gamblers.

I also have to say that retiring 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird was a blunder. He may not have won the 2011 Santa Anita Handicap or Jockey Club Gold Cup, but he is a Kentucky Derby winning gelding that could have created much excitement with a marginal career. I would have given him 30 days vacation in Roswell to relax and hone his flying saucer dodging skills then sent him to one of the most prolific horsemen in the Southwest over the last 40 years, Keith Asmussen in Laredo, for the winter. If the folks at the Asmussen Training Center, known for buying and producing millionaires from California to France, see a sparkle in Mine That Bird, then off to Ron McAnally in California. McAnally has a long history with the Asmussen operation and of course trained one of the greatest geldings of our generation in John Henry. McAnally also trains in Southern California where the new track at Santa Anita is natural dirt and not the synthetic nemesis Mine That Bird so disliked. If McAnally decides that the Santa Anita Handicap is not in the plans, then consider a tour of the nation in popular grade 3 races such as the Razorback in Arkansas, the Lone Star Park Handicap in Texas, the Prairie Meadows Cornhusker in Iowa, the Longacres Mile in Washington, or the Monmouth Cup in New Jersey. Fans in these regional markets would clammer to see a Kentucky Derby winner if marketed properly and if Mine That Bird has a spark left, McAnally and the Asmussens would find it.

Time, Not Awards Will Define Zenyatta

In the days since Zenyatta failed to win the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic by a scant nose, breaking her 19-race win streak and the hearts of fans everywhere, the attention on her has waned but certainly not vanished. Randy Moss on ESPN called her the undisputed greatest female race horse of all time moments after the race. CBS Sunday Morning with Charles Ausgood, the Today show on NBC, SportsCenter on ESPN and any number of other network programs replayed the Classic into Sunday, with more accompanying editorial than horse racing is usually given after other major events in the sport such as the Kentucky Derby or a failed Triple Crown Belmont.

There is a “Zenyatta HOY (Horse of the Year) 2010” Facebook page with nearly 3,000 fans, Twitter, internet discussion boards and blogs are jammed full of those espousing her while few still cling to their criticism of the great mare. That debate will rage until the golden Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year is presented in January. If Zenyatta is not named Horse of the Year – judging from last year – the dissatisfaction talks will continue months longer.

Even if the voting goes to Zenyatta, nothing will really be solved. Eclipse Awards are not determined on the track. There are no qualifications. Not even a victory in the Breeders’ Cup World Championships can guaranteed a trophy. Last year Zenyatta proved that. Five wins in five starts including four grade 1 races and the Breeders’ Cup Classic was enough for Zenyatta to earn only 42% of the vote. Rachel Alexandra took 56% of the vote and the trophy.

This year, it appears Zenyatta will be denied the Horse of the Year title because she missed winning the Classic by a nose. Those voters will ignore her five wins this year – all in grade 1 races present it to Classic winner Blame. Yes, Blame, they will say, had a better year than Zenyatta. They will give him the award despite his record of only three wins (two grade 1) from four starts before the Classic.

Both Zenyatta and Blame finished second once this year. Zenyatta to Blame by a nose in the Classic – Blame finished four lengths behind Haynesfield in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

But because there are no official qualifications, the race for horse of the year is not won or lost on the track. It is nothing more than a popularity contest. Whoever is most popular among the The Eclipse Awards sponsors – the National Thoroughbred Racing Association, Daily Racing Form and the National Turf Writers Association – get the awards.

That is not an accusation of hypocrisy, nor a complaint of how the system works. Horse racing doesn’t have the benefit of other sports that can solve such championship issues in strict competition. So we are left defining our champions by ballot.

And that is exactly why fans of Blame and Zenyatta and Goldikova, or even Uncle Mo, should relax a bit for the next few months. Because in the end, that title will matter little.

Nothing defines greatness better than time. And time will surely lay on the side of the great mare Zenyatta. In fact, time may somehow morph Zenyatta’s final loss into something far more positive than we can imagine in few days, weeks or even years following.

Jim Thorpe was stripped from his Olympic Gold medals and quarterback Johnny Unitas finished his illustrious career with a dismal season as a crippled former champion in San Diego. Willie Mays retired as a New York Met and Michael Jordan left basketball as a Washington Wizard.

Zenyatta’s loss in her final start may be more defining than disappointing final seasons or Olympic bureaucracy, but time will likely put the race into perspective non-the-less. In fact history and time will define her legacy much better than any awards.

And time has a habit of examining cultural impact as well as wins and losses. So Zenyatta's appearance on Los Angeles Dodgers' billboards, Oprah Winfrey magazines and 60 Minutes television shows have also been stuffed into her virtual time capsules. And there are very few thoroughbreds that have carried ammunition that heavy into retirement. Cigar was perhaps most recently in that realm of popularity among non-race fans.

So time will be the final judge for Zenyatta. We just have to be a bit more patient for the results.

Zenyatta Not Haunting Away Challengers

Although we are nearing Halloween, the big, bad mare out of Southern California is not scarring anybody away from meeting her in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs. With the connections of 2009 Champion Older Male Gio Ponti saying they are keeping their options open for a repeat in the Classic; and Dale Romans, trainer of 3-year-old turf star Paddy O’Prado, more definite about pointing toward the $5 million race, there are as many as 15 possible contenders lining up to take on the undefeated Zenyatta.

Under the conditions of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, the field will be restricted to 14 starters. Should more than 14 horses enter, the Breeders’ Cup uses a system to rank the entrants in order of preference based upon (1) performance in Breeders' Cup Challenge Races, (2) a point system, and (3) the judgment of a panel of racing experts. The field selection system will be implemented as necessary following the taking of pre-entries on Oct. 25.

Gio Ponti (right), who is expected to also pre-enter into the $2 Breeders’ Cup Mile on the turf, split horses at the top of the stretch and opened up daylight on last year’s Classic field before being run down in the final 110 yards by Zenyatta. Also honored last year as the Champion Turf Male, Gio Ponti has six career grade 1 wins on grass including the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., Oct. 9. But the 5-year-old has never raced on natural dirt. Last year the Breeders’ Cup Classic was run over the synthetic surface at Santa Anita in Southern California while Churchill Downs has a natural dirt surface.

Similarly, Praddy O’Prado has more recently been thought of as a turf specialist winning four graded races including the grade 1T Secretariat Stakes at Arlington Park near Chicago. But he also ran a very credible third over the Churchill Downs main track in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands giving trainer Dale Romans the confidence to return Paddy O’Prado to the main track in Louisville.

There is even a rare invasion from the Land of Rising Sun. Looking to become the first Japanese-based horse to win and only the fifth to start in a Breeders’ Cup race, Espoir City (left) arrived Tuesday at Churchill Downs after a long flight from Tokyo via Chicago. Last year, Espoir City won the prestigious Japan Cup Dirt and is considered to be Japan’s top rated thoroughbred on dirt with career earnings of nearly $6 million. In his last start Oct. 11, he was second in the Nambu Hai Mile in his first race in five months in what has been termed “strictly a preparation for the big race (Classic)” according to his trainer. “We have been training him looking ahead to the next big race,” said his trainer, Akio Adachi, a former jockey, in comments provided by Nobu Furuta, the administrative manager of Japan Racing Association’s New York-area office.

Of course there are the other big contenders being trained for the Breeders’ Cup Classic including multiple grade 1 winners Quality Road, Lookin at Lucky and Blame as well as Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Haynesfield, Monmouth Cup (gr. 2) winner Etched and Pennsylvania Derby (gr. 2) morning line.

It’s not like a large field in the Breeders’ Cup Classic is a rare occurrence. The race has averaged 11.62 starters in the previous 26 runnings with six of those featuring full fields of 14. In the last 20 versions, only the 1997 and 2007 Classics had less than 10 starters and both of those races had nine go to post. Multi-million dollar purses will have that effect on entries.

It will be interesting to see just how many show up at Churchill Downs in a few weeks to take their shot at Zenyatta. It appears the trend towards many may continue.

Musket Man May Have A Shot At Classic Victory

With the announcement by trainer Derek Ryan that Musket Man will run in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 6 at Churchill Downs, it may cause some to wonder exactly what the conditioner is attempting to accomplish.

After all, the 1-1/4 Classic is expected to feature the undefeated mare Zenyatta; Quality Road, who out finished Musket Man to win the grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap in July and again in August while running second to Musket Man’s third in the Whitney Handicap at Saratoga. And don’t forget that Blame, the winner of the Whitney and second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, is also headed to Churchill Downs for the Classic as is Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Haynesfield. Representing the best of the 3-year-old crop this year, Preakness, Haskell, and Indiana Derby winner Lookin at Lucky also appears headed to the Breeders’ Cup Classic.


So why would Ryan put Musket Man against this caliber of competition, which appears to be just above Musket Man’s abilities? It is true that Musket Man has not won since taking the $52,000 Super Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs in February. It is true that Musket Man has run against many likely Classic starters and has failed to defeat them. It is true that there are other, less intimidating, options for Musket Man on Breeders' Cup Day - notably the $1 million Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile where he would be among the favorites.

But it is also true that in 14 career starts, Musket Man has never finished worse than third and the furthest he has been off of the winner was 6-3/4 lengths behind Mine That Bird last year in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Five of his last eight races have been against grade 1 competition with two additional starts against grade 2 company. His only start in an ungraded race since January of last year, was in his Super Stakes win.

And there are some very interesting Breeders’ Cup Classic trends that say the that Ryan and owners Eric Fein and Vic Carlson would be remiss for not allowing Musket Man the chance at an upset in the Classic.

According to this year’s edition of Crushing The Cup, the favorite has done very well in the Breeder’s Cup Classic, winning eight of the 26 Classics, for a respectable 31% win rate. But only three of the last 12 favorites, including Zenyatta last year, have made it to the winners’ circle. Ghostzapper won the 2005 Classic paying $7.00 as the favorite and St. Liam won the Classic the following year and returned $6.80. During that 12-year span, the average winning payout was $23.73 with the longest payout being Volponi, who paid $89.0 after winning the 2002 Classic.

Don’t forget that Musket Man has plenty of high quality credentials on his racing resume as well. The four-year-old son of Yonaguska and the Fortunate Prospect mare Fortuesque has earned more than $1.2 million in his 14-race career against some of the top competition of his class. He was third in both the Derby and Preakness last year after winning the grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby and grade 2 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne before shipping to Kentucky.

In two of Musket Man’s few races this year with less than triple digit Beyer Speed figures, he ran a 99 in the Super Stakes and a 95 assigned to him after a troubled trip over the slop in the grade2 Churchill Downs in May.

In his most recent race, the Monmouth Cup Oct. 9, Musket Man’s stalking running style got compromised by a lumbering slow pace by eventual winner and defending champion Etched. Musket Man was also forced four or five-wide turning for home and still managed to muster a challenge but not pass the fast moving Etched. Musket Man was the odds-favorite to win the Monmouth Cup and that may not speak well for his Classic chances. But this less than grueling stroll of a $300,000 Monmouth Cup might just be exactly what the trainer ordered to set the team on course of the much richer Classic.

Financial backers of Musket Man in the Classic may get better than what they ordered as well. Zenyatta should again be the favorite and will likely be over bet because of her popularity. It is not likely that Musket Man will become more popular than Lookin at Lucky, Quality Road or Blame; and possibly Japanese invader Espoir City, winner of the prestigious Japan Cup Dirt in December, will garner his share of the Classic wagering. That leaves little chance that Musket Man will fall below 12-to-1 and will likely be closer to 20-to-1. That could result in some solid profit.

There is a lot of time between now and the Nov. 6 Breeders’ Cup and many things can happen and likely will happen as the race looms closer. But when looking for that last race longshot, don’t overlook Musket man – the horse that has lost his last five races but still may have his best shot at Churchill Downs.

Whitney Has All The Feel of NFL Training Camp

With National Football League training camps at full swing, many around the country have their attention on grown men trying to prove themselves to their coaches, teammates and fans. It just so happens that at the prestigious upstate New York racing haven known as Saratoga, we have nearly the same thing in the $750,000 Whitney Handicap - older horses trying to prove themselves as big league performers.

The grade 1 race at 1-1/8 miles on the main track at Saratoga features arguably three of the top five older horses in North America in Quality Road, Blame and Musket Man plus 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird as well as rising stars Haynesfield and Jardim.

The leader of the pack is without doubt Quality Road, who has been blazing through 2010 like he has some kind of equine chip on his horse shoulder. He has won all three of his starts this year – all in graded races - all impressively. In fact, during those three races, he has only been headed by another horse for about the first half-mile in the Donn Handicap (gr. 1) at Gulfstream Park in February. He went on to win that race by nearly 13 lengths while running the second fastest Donn in history achieving an eye-popping 121 Beyer Speed Figure.

That race was sandwiched between wire-wire victories in the grade 3 Hal's Hope Stakes at Gulfstream Park in January and the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. 1) at Belmont Park in May.

After a 3-year-old year in which he was scratched from the Triple Crown trail just days before the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands as the potential favorite, Quality Road came back to the races last year at Saratoga with a vengeance to win the grade 2 Amsterdam at Saratoga in track record time. But in his next two races, he was never able to pass Belmont winner Summer Bird in the Travers Stakes (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) in New York.

However, his connections thought enough of him to send him to the West coast for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1). But Quality Road got into a pre-race bout with the Santa Anita gate crew before taking on the starting gate itself, delaying the race and eventually being scratched. So irate about the incident was Quality Road, that he refused to board his flight home to New York days later. Instead trainer Todd Pletcher returned Quality Road to his barn at Aqueduct in a van where he promptly placed him in a camp for wayward starting gate horses.

During most of the winter, while every other horse in the barn was enjoying their mid-morning Timothy hay, Quality Road was doing time with former NYRA starter Bob Duncan at starting gate school at Aqueduct.

Unlike the Oscar winning prison rebel Cool Hand Luke however, with Quality Road it seems there was no “FAIL-yah to communicate.”

While still on probation, as exemplified by the post training hour schooling Quality Road still receives at Saratoga, it seems he is reformed and out to prove himself.

Two rookies to the national older horse league this year are Blame and Haynesfield, both undefeated in their last four starts, including two this year.

Blame brings to Saratoga the most credentials having won the grade 1 Stephen F. Foster Handicap at Chuchill Downs June 12. In fact, this 4-year-old trained by Al Stall Jr. has been turning heads since winning the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga last year. He then traveled to Louisiana Downs for the Super Derby (gr. 2) to run a very good second to a sharp Regal Ransom. Since then Blame has rattled off wins in the grade 2 Fayette at Keeneland, the grade 2 Clark Handicap at Churchill and the grade 3 William Donald Schaefer Stakes at Pimlico before taking the Foster.

Winning the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga is akin to playing on special teams in the NFL. It’s a big deal, but you just get lost in the shuffle with all the graded stakes winners at the Spa. This year, Blame has something to prove.

Haynesfield is the Rodney Dangerfield of this group from the perspective of this blogger at the very least. In blogging about his recent win over the heralded I Want Revenge in the Suburban Handicap (gr. 2) July 3, I referred to him as “Haynesworth.”

Haynesfield also has the grade 3 Discovery Handicap at Aqueduct in November in his four-race streak but the ungraded Empire Classic and an optional claiming race at Belmont are in the make up as well. He has a tendency to like to be near the lead so he’ll have to do battle with the speedy Quality Road early in the long race to make his point.

Then we have the veterans of the national wars trying to prove they can still play at this level – Mine That Bird and Musket Man. Of the two, the Derby winner has much more to prove than Musket Man.

First, Musket Man has a post Triple Crown win in the Super Stakes at Tampa Bay in February. Mine That Bird has lost six straight since taking the run for the roses including a very weak 8th place finish on the turf in the grade 2 Firecracker on the grass at Churchill July 4.

Longshot Kentucky Derby winners Giacomo (2005) and Gato Del Sol (1982) have both long been castigated for their careers after winning the run for the roses, but neither went 0-for-6 post Derby. Giacomo won his fifth race after the Derby in the San Diego Handicap but wound 1-for-7 during his career after Kentucky. Gato Del Sol won an allowance race in New York in his third start after the Derby, but had only one stakes win in the Cabrillo Handicap at Hollywood Park in 13 races after winning at Churchill on the first Saturday of May.

Mine That Bird, under the direction of Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas this year, needs to start winning to avoid the one hit wonder label.

In terms of records and labels, perhaps Tom Petty best exemplies Musket Man in his 1989 tune "I Won't Back Down."

And I’ll keep this world from draggin me down.
And I’ll stand my ground, and I won’t back down

Since winning the Illinois Derby (gr. 2) some 15 months ago, Musket Man has taken on the best his class has to offer at the grade 1 level in the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, Carter Handicap, Metropolitan Handicap as well as the grade 2 Churchill Downs Stakes and his win in the minor Super Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. He seems to have a propensity to raise to the level of competition, but the winners’ circle has so far eluded him at that level. The words “so far” may be the operative.

Remember nobody knew Brett Favre until his second season at Green Bay.

But unlike Mr.Favre, who is staying at home during training camp this year, this group of older horses is in attendance and ready to go in August.

Ransom Received In Super Derby

We may not be looking at the next Tiznow in Super Derby winner Regal Ransom, but I like the scenerary none-the-less. True, the Super Derby was not loaded with Mine That Birds, Summer Birds and Rachel Alexandras, but it wasn't a bunch of allowance horses either as someone suggested last night in a Facebook post. It was a credible grade 2 stake with graded stakes-placed runners and winners. Nothing more. Nothing less.

Second place finisher Blame had just won the Curlin Stakes at Saratoga. Third place finisher Massone was also third in the grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes in April and grade 2 West Virginia Derby winner Soul Warrior was fourth in the Super Derby.

I'm not here to tell you that Regal Ransom (photo) is going to win the Breeders' Cup Classic at Santa Anita in November, but if he runs, I'm not leaving him out of the bottom of my trifectas either. I doubt he'll be on the top line of my trifecta, but he'll be in the bottom line for third. Maybe second.

What I saw in the Super Derby was the winner of the grade 2 UAE Derby seemingly strolling around the Bossier City oval at Louisiana Downs with apparently more concern for infield alligators than his competition. I saw a Regal Ransom break on top, go right to lead and in complete control of the pace and eventually the race. Jockey Richard Migliore probably requested his gumbo in the jock's room kitchen more aggresively than he asked Regal Ransom to run down the stretch in the Super Derby.

What I also saw was a horse making his first start since the first Saturday in May when he was eighth in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum. That is a long vacation for a race horse and few at any level return with a win in their first start - much less return to dominate in a graded stake.

What I also see in Regal Ransom is a very nice looking, well bred, bay colt who sold for $675,000 at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Florida Select 2-Year-Olds in Training sale. He is a son of Distorted Humor, who stood for $150,000 per breeding in 2009 and has been among North America's leading sires while producing the likes of Funny Cide, Flower Alley, Hysterical Lady and Commentator.

I also see a horse from the internationally powerful Godolphin Stable of Sheikh Mohammed al Maktoum and under the care of trainer Saeed bin Suroor and North American assistant Rick Mettee. According to their web site, they've won 151 group 1 and grade 1 races in 12 countries.

I don't see the next Tiznow or Alysheba just yet, but I think Regal Ransom gives us plenty to enjoy.