Kentucky Derby Conditions Help Wrong Horses Qualify

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is in the books and with it, the $1,080,000 in graded earnings that went to the winner, Hansen (inside horse photo right). Favorite Union Rags missed catching Hansen by just a head in the Juvenile, but still pulled down $360,000 for finishing second and pushing him over $800,000 in graded earnings - or money won in America’s most significant races for 2-year-olds. Graded earnings are not so significant now; for Hansen and Union Rags the differences are small anyway. For horses at this level in their 2-year-old career, graded earnings often only eliminate the $30,000 or so made in the maiden ranks.

Graded earnings become more important when planning for the 2012 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. And when a horse has enough graded earnings to qualify for the Derby by the preceding new year, it makes those plans much, much less stressful.

In the case that more than 20 horses want to enter the Kentucky Derby, the conditions of the race give preference to those with the most earnings in graded races. At least twenty horses have entered the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 with it taking an average of $128,708 to make the entry box over the last six years.

Six months ago, Derby Kitten was the last “bubble” horse to get into the Derby with $120,000. Eventual Preakness winner Shackleford was also one of the final qualifiers for the 2011 Kentucky Derby with $212,000 in graded earnings at entry time. Nowhere to Hide made it into the Derby starting gate with the least graded earnings ($55,500 in 2009) while it took Make Music For Me a record $218,750 to enter in 2010. The Kentucky Derby has been limited to 20 starters since 1975.


Granted, the Derby is still seven months away and the graded earnings list may not be as popular in the water cooler circles as March Madness Basketball brackets or Super Bowl office pools that feature the over/under on how long it takes to sing the National Anthem; but the graded earnings list will be widely followed by racing fans before the first Saturday in May of 2012 arrives.

Whether graded earnings is the best qualifier for a Kentucky Derby field has been the topic of much debate since they were first used to determine the Derby field in 1986. Under particular fire is the rationale behind using performances from horse’s 2-year-old seasons to determine who qualifies for the Derby, run one-third of the way into a horse's 3-year-old campaign.

It is puzzling that the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is so influential on Derby qualifiers when it has only produced one Kentucky Derby winner in 27 years. Street Sense won the 2006 Juvenile and 2007 Kentucky Derby. However, Street Sense was also the last Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to even start in the Kentucky Derby. Among the 2011 Derby field, only 12th-place finisher Stay Thirsty had started in the Juvenile.

Other grade 1 races for 2-year-olds have had been even less productive in producing Kentucky Derby winners, yet graded money earned by running in these races in 2011, will help qualify horses for America’s most important race in 2012.

The last Kentucky Derby winner that also won the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at two was Sea Hero in 1992 and 1993. The last Champagne winner to start in the Derby was Scat Daddy, 18th in the 2007 Derby. By the time the Derby comes around again on May 5, 2012, it will have been two years since a Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) winner made to Kentucky for the Derby when Lookin at Lucky was sixth in the 2010. No winner of the Norfolk Stakes has ever won the Kentucky Derby the following year. It has been since 1984 when Swale won the Kentucky Derby after winning what is now the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, Keeneland’s Fall grade 1 event for 2-year-old colts and geldings.

Yet Dullahan, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity and third in the Juvenile, and Creative Cause, the Norfolk winner and fourth in the Juvenile, join Hansen and Union Rags with enough money already to qualify for the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

There is still the grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park with its $750,000 purse and the $1 million Delta Jackpot (gr. 3) at Delta Downs yet to be run before year’s end.

Previously known as the Hollywood Futurity, the CashCall Futurity has had plenty of prestige in its 31-year history with its winners including Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet, Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given, Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy, Best Pal and Snow Chief.

But the Delta Downs Jackpot was designed to be affiliated with the Kentucky Derby. Sponsored by Boyd Gaming, the Delta Downs Jackpot was first run in 2002 at one mile. The next year, the race was increased to 1-1/16 miles in distance and given a $1 million money with hopes of attracting top horses. The plan worked and in 2006 the Delta Jackpot ran as a grade 3 race.

Once the graded status came, the major horsemen followed. Delta Downs Jackpot winners included Birdbirdistheword (2006), Z Humor (2007-DH), Turf War (2007-DH) Big Drama (2008), Rule (2009), and Gourment Dinner last year. Only Z Humor has made it to the Derby, finishing 14th, but Rule and Big Drama went on to productive careers. Rule stayed on the Kentucky Derby trail winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) and finished third in the Florida Derby before being sidelined by injury. Big Drama just retired as the winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint and earnings of more than $2.7 million.

Pre-entries for the November 19, Delta Jackpot include Drill, the Bob Baffert-trained winner of the grade 1 Del Mar Futurity but a disappointing tenth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; and Jake Mo, fifth in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. The day at Delta Downs also includes the $500,000 Delta Downs Princess among the eight stakes and $2.2 million in purses that night.

There are no rooms available at the Delta Downs Casino and Hotel for Friday or Saturday night next week, so the Delta Downs Jackpot has put “butts in seats” as they say in sports marketing. It has also promoted the racing instituted by Director of Racing Chris Warren who has channeled the casino money effectively into his racing program. As a further indication of the Jackpot quality, trainers Steve Asmussen, Kelly Breem, Al Stall Jr., Bret Calhoun and Jerry Hollendorfer also have horses pre-entered in the Jackpot.

The Delta Downs Jackpot will also create another 2-year-old qualified for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Along with the CashCall Futurity winner, the top four finishers from the Juvenile; Wrote, winner of the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle, at least eight 2-year-olds will have more than the $300,000 In graded earnings, more than what is expected to be needed to enter the Kentucky Derby.

By no means does that mean that all eight will make it to the Kentucky Derby. But it does mean that these eight will have less pressure put on them in February, March and April when other 3-year-olds are trying to accumulate graded earnings. Logic and history tell us the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial and such have the greatest impact on the Kentucky Derby.

Horses in those races are making their final preparations for Kentucky and have already overcome many of the obstacles that will stop a great many of the top 2-year-olds from the year before. And it would be a shame to see an close third-place finisher in the grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes get excluded because a horse earned money in the grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs nearly a year ago.

But that is the way the Kentucky Derby conditions read. And until they are changed, I hope the south Louisiana fans get to see a future Kentucky Derby winner. And I congratulate Delta Downs management for taking advantage.

Birthday Horses

Yesterday was my 52nd birthday. I don’t say that insolently looking for more happy birthday wishes. I say that to make a point.

Race trackers are a good lot.

If you’re reading this blog, you probably consider yourself a race-tracker. Whether you are a groom, trainer, jockey, owner or just fan, you’re a race-tracker. If you don’t consider yourself a race-tracker,… I suggest you consider it seriously. It is a good group.

I say that based on my birthday experiences yesterday on the internet. Quite frankly, I must say, it is something that I had never experienced before - at least on the internet and seldom good - or off the computer. They are steamers, hot tips, inside track winners.

Yes, there are plenty of horseracing prognosticators on the internet. They have websites, twitter accounts and facebook pages. And there are those serous players who like to share and discuss their selections as well. Some are better handicappers than others, but there seems to be something to learn from a great many of them.

But these tips were different. There were three of them. All came from different people. All three said simply “Happy Birthday Brock” then a horse’s name, race and track. One was posted on my Facebook wall and two came via direct message. There was nothing mysterious about them. They were all just different enough to nullify suspicion.

The first birthday steamer came on my Facebook page wall. The horse was Kindersley in the first race at Belmont Park. Now I’m not one to play many tips – I’ve just lost too much money believing too many other people. I have now reserved myself to losing money because of my lack of handicapping skill. It's not much more profitable, but it feels better.

But yesterday was different. It was my birthday so why not take a shot. After all, Kindersley was an attractive 6-to-1. Unfortunately, Kindersley encountered a little trouble shortly after the break of the one mile allowance race and was never able to catch the top two and finished third. I lost my small win bet, but certainly got an ample amount of action in return.

I returned to my Facebook page with a sigh and grin and again I found two more steamers. They were sent by two different Facebook friends from two enitely different parts of the country. Both of these tips were sent to my Facebook inbox, with more confidentiality than Kendersley, who was posted on my wall. But Kindersley's effort had me in the mood, so I decided to again plop down a small win bet on each of the new birthday tips.

The first came from my old stomping grounds at Louisiana Downs and was ridden by Quincy Hamilton, a former client of mine from my years as a financial advisor. Hudson’s Creed was also 9-to-2 so again, I took a shot with a small win bet. Hudson’s Creed broke on top and never looked back and I was rewarded with for my small endeavor.

Now I had house money and it was still my birthday.

The third steamer was like Hudson’s Creed in that he was running at yet another of my former stops on the horse racing trail, Hollywood Park. Lucky Primo was the tip and sure enough, Lucky Primo won the Golden State Cup for California-breds and returned a handsome $19.00.

I must also say that these tips were not sent to me by close friends. Although additional thought says they probably should be. They are just some acquaintances of mine in the interesting world that is social media. It is interesting in that I don’t believe I have ever received three good horse racing tips in one day. It is very seldom that one good steamer is passed my way on any given race day.

But yesterday was my birthday and these seemed as unique as they eventually turned out. There may also be an old race track rule that you don’t tout some nag to somebody on their birthday. If not. There should be. Regardless, I think the whole experience says something about horse people in general. They may not always have a lot to give, but when they do, it is sincere. At least it sure felt that way yesterday.

Thanks friends.

Dear Santa

For sake of disclosure, please be aware that you are just being copied on this list. The original has long been sent for consideration to Santa at his North Pole address.


Dear Santa,

I hate to ask for much this year because you delivered so many items from my horse racing Christmas list last year. Zenyatta stayed in racing all year and remained undefeated going into the Breeders’ Cup Classic and gave us a race for the ages in defeat. Quality Road and Musket Man represented the Triple Crown class of ’09 well in the older horse ranks and you surprised us with Blame. We also appreciate how Lookin at Lucky rebounded after having so much bad luck early in the year. There’s so much more for which to say thanks for last year, but I know you’re busy this time of year, so I’ll get right to my list.

1. Triple Crown winner - I hate to keep bugging you Santa. I know I’ve been asking for this every year since we got Affirmed in 1978 and I know they are difficult. But I don’t really care who wins the Triple Crown – I just would really like another Triple Crown winner. I don’t care if it’s Uncle Mo, To Honor and Serve, Comma To The Top or some 2-year-old most of us don’t even know exists today. And it’s just not for me Santa. Think about how much a Triple Crown winner would mean to all of the fans in Maryland who have endured so many difficult times over the years during daily cards at Pimlico and Laurel. And the fans in New York, Santa. They have made the nice list so many times coming out on Belmont Day in droves looking for that next Triple Crown winner only to be betrayed by the likes of Coastal, Summing, Bet Twice, Easy Goer, Touch Gold, Victory Gallop, Lemon Drop Kid, Empire Maker and Birdstone – not to mention the flops by War Emblem and Big Brown.

2. Speaking of New York Santa, I also ask that you do what you can to help open New York Off Track Betting Again. I know that sounds a bit crass to ask this – especially for a company that has been so woefully mismanaged for so long, but it represents 1,000 employees of NYOTB that are probably having a pretty tough Christmas this year. They also handle about a billion dollars a year, that this economy and racing industry very much need to churn.

3. I know we won’t get another Zenyatta, Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road or Summer Bird returning to the older horse ranks, but I’m sure you have another Blame in that sack of yours. Heck, this time last year Blame was coming off of two grade 2 stakes win at Churchill Downs and was looking in on the national spotlight shining on others. You have some tools to work with in Albertus Maximus, winner of the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and 2009 Donn Handicap, making a possible comeback. Last year’s Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Haynesfield, Cigar Mile winner Jersey Town or the Bob Baffert-trained Alcindor, who has been turning heads in Southern California.

4. Hollywood Park Remain Open – I have to admit that I’ve already seen this present (at least as much as I can hope for.) Thanks Santa.

5. Success of New Santa Anita Surface – I know Santa, that I have been a proponent of artificial racing surfaces for sake of safety if nothing else. But I have to admit that I’m kind of excited about not having to solve the riddle of California 3-year-olds coming off of PolyTrack to try to win the Kentucky Derby. As you fly over Santa Anita, if you have a handful of marginal magical dust that you want to get rid of, feel free to sprinkle a little over the Great Race Place as you pass.

6. Slot Machines In Texas – Let me be clear Santa. I’m not asking for a five-time-pay hit on a on a dollar progressive slot machine if they get here in Texas. I’m just asking that you consider what it would mean a lot to see Lone Star Park regain its formidable place in racing with the potential to raise the bar toward original hopes for horse racing in Texas. Sam Houston Race Park has always shown promise and Retama Park has survived under the current dire economic racing climate in Texas.

7. Don’t let anybody in horse racing get busted with a foot fetish YouTube video unless they are a licensed farrier.

8. Three-Year-Old Filly Star – I know you have delivered on this the last two years in a very big way with Rachel Alexandra two years ago and Blind Luck and Evening Jewel this year. But horse racing always needs another female star and the Kentucky Oaks seems to be creating its own niche as a major event in the sport. Female stars bring more ladies and girls of all ages to the sport, and that is always good because women control a lot more than we men would like to admit. I’m sure Mrs. Claus would agree with me on this.

9. Keep jockey Calvin Borel from retirement – I’ve heard that there have been some ultimate cage fighting associations that are making a run at him.

10. And finally Santa, keep all of the jockeys, exercise riders, trainers, stable hands and of course the horses, safe throughout the year.

Sincerely,

Brock Sheridan

Neither Paradise Nor Bust, Horse Racing Presses On

Thoroughbred racing in North America is a vast industry that spans all three countries, including every state in the United States whether the home of tracks, breeders, owners and horsemen, management, manufacturing, service, agriculture or fans and gamblers. So whether you're elated by the Medaglia d' Oro filly that sold for a Maryland record $650,000 last week or prepared to take arms against the closing of Saratoga, be aware that all is not lost nor are we paradise bound.

The Triple Crown Bad News
The 2010 Triple Crown has never had much star quality momentum since the injury and departure of Fountain of Youth (gr. 2) and Wood Memorial (gr. 1) winner Eskendereya (photo right). Even before that, Looking at Lucky, who was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby throughout most of the winter, never got untracked barely winning a troubled Rebel Stakes (gr. 3), and unlucky losses in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver provided plenty of star potential coming from the barn of Todd Pletcher and having the services of public favorite Calvin Borel, but that team flattened out in the Preakness and will now skip the Belmont.

To make matters worse for racing fans, Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky will also skip the Belmont and instead be pointed toward the grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in New Jersey on August 1. So we are left with a Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) without a Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner for the first time since 2006.

The Triple Crown Good News
The NBC telecast of the Kentucky Derby was the highest in 18 years and eclipsed the 2009 Derby telecast that was the highest in 20 years. The 10.3 overnight rating and 23 share mean that nearly one in four television sets turned on Saturday afternoon were tuned into the Kentucky Derby. In terms of comparison to other major league sports on tv, the Derby ratings were higher than the final game of the 2009 World Series, the 2009 NBA Championship final game and the Stanley Cup finals in the NHL.

While the television ratings for the Preakness fell nearly 20% from a year ago, that Preakness was bolstered by the presence of the filly Rachel Alexandra and was among the highest rated Preakness telecasts in two decades. Even with the drop in comparison to last year, the Preakness ratings were still higher than the 2008 telecast and NBC reported that the combined ratings for the two telecasts results in the highest numbers of any consecutive horse telecasts since 1989.

More Good News To Triple Crown Bad News
While the 3-year-old crop of 2010 has yet to develop a horse with much star power, the older horse division is perhaps as loaded with stars as any year in decades.

Zenyatta continues to run into the racing history books and living rooms of America with every race as she continues to add to her now undefeated record in 16 career starts. While 2009 Horse of Year Rachel Alexandra has stumbled a bit in two close losses this year, there is no doubt she will draw attention and crowds when she makes here next start. Should Rachel Alexandra develop any resemblance of her 2009 form and eventually meet Zenyatta, the race will be a significant historical event in racing.

Just below the two superstars looms the popular Quality Road, winner of the 2009 Florida Derby (gr. 1) and undefeated in two starts this year; Summer Bird, the first horse in 20 years to win Belmont, Travers (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1); and Rail Trip on the West coast, who looked impressive while winning the Mervyn LeRoy (gr. 2)in preparation for his defense of the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. 1) title.

Closings on the Coasts?
For at least the last two years, Hollywood Park near Los Angeles has ended a race meet with little or no assurance that it would not be the last. In July 2005, Churchill Downs sold the track to the Bay Meadows Land Company for $260 million in cash. Under the terms of the deal, the company was to continue thoroughbred racing at Hollywood Park for at least three years and longer if favorable gaming legislation was passed in California. Five years later, there are no slots at California race tracks, Hollywood Park Race Track is still running and the Hollywood Park Tomorrow retail, commercial and residential development is still just a plan.

Across town at Santa Anita, owner Magna Entertainment appears to have survived a bankruptcy in their Roman racetrack empire that has spanned to Texas, Maryland, Michigan and various points in between. Now parent company Magna International Development has told the Oak Tree Racing Association, which has leased Santa Anita since 1969 for their non-profit Fall meeting, that they are reneging on a previous agreement and want to void the lease. But California neighbors Hollywood Park and Del Mar near San Diego quickly told Oak Tree officials they are welcome to run the meeting at their tracks. MID blinked and is expected to resume negotiations with Oak Tree Officials.

MID chief executive officer Dennis Mills has a standing offer to play poker at the Sheridan house any time. He wouldn’t last an hour at the same table as my wife.

On the East coast, New York Racing Association president and CEO Charlie Hayward said Monday that cash problems must be resolved with the state or they will not have the funds to continue the Belmont Park meeting past the Belmont Stakes nor open Saratoga. Due to a $17 million shortfall from the New York Off-Track Betting Corp., NYRA, which operates Belmont Park, Saratoga and Aqueduct race tracks, has hit a cash crisis with devastating potential.

Although New York governor David Paterson and various state legislators have pledged not to allow racing to halt in New York, those same politicians have been working nine years to approve a slot operator and allow Video Lottery Terminals to be installed at Aqueduct. Slot revenues are expected to be a large benefit to the NYRA and state bottom line just as it has in other racing jurisdictions where slots have been allowed at tracks.

East Coast Good News
Saturday, Monmouth Park will open perhaps the most anticipated racing season in their 64-year history, offering $1 million per day in purses and attracting some of the top stables from New York, California and Kentucky. The 50-day summer meet is part of a plan that has sliced live thoroughbred racing days in New Jersey to 71 total and eliminating the thoroughbred season at the Meadowlands.

The season will feature racing predominantly on a Friday through Sunday basis in an effort to boost attendance and handle at the track to subsidize the large purses. Management is also counting on full fields and 11 and 12-race cards that are likely to become more attractive to the thoroughbred players across the country.

The racing industry has for years clamored for the "less racing/larger fields" strategy to be implemented in racing jurisdictions throughout the country. But the risk of potential lost revenue due to lost racing dates has been too large for managements and states before the Monmouth experiment begins this week.

Bad Economy Blasts Breeders Too
According to Bloodhorse.com, fees for advertised stallion may have fallen as much as 25% in 2009 and the 2010 season may be even worse for stallion owners and breeders. Gross sales at public auctions in North America fell from $972 million in 2008 to $659 million a year later, a decrease of some 32%. Lost revenues at sales directly and adversely affect studs fees, in particular the summer yearling market.

But the sales markets are showing signs of improvement in the early months of 2010 which will have a positive impact on stallion fees should the trend continue.

One of the leading early economic indicators for public auctions are the success of two-year-old in training sales held by public auction houses Barretts, Fasig-Tipton, Keeneland, and the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. While gross sales at these auctions have decreased at many of the sales, the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training Monday in Maryland saw horses sold and gross revenue increase 7.9% and 23%, respectively, from a year ago.

One segment of the industry that has done well throughout the 2-year-old season are pin-hookers. (those that purchase yearlings at summer auctions with the express intent of reselling them in 2-year-old-in-training sales the following spring.) The rate of return on investment for most pin-hookers this year has more than doubled into the 70% range according to bloodhorse.com, giving plenty of hope to the yearling market later this summer.

Good yearling sales means improved stud fees and hopefully the recovery of yet another thoroughbred racing segment from the depths of this latest recession.

Hollywood Park Done Deal

INGLEWOOD, Calif. (AP)—The Inglewood City Council has approved a $2 billion development that would put an end to horse racing at the Hollywood Park racetrack.

City spokesman Ed Maddox said the council approved several ordinances and zoning changes Wednesday night, clearing the way for a 238-acre project called Hollywood Park Tomorrow.

Developer Wilson Meany Sullivan, who bought the track in 2005, plans to build a retail and residential complex with a casino on the site of the racetrack.