Despite Training Trends, Holy Bull Remains Important Step On Kentucky Derby Trail

A couple of things about the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) from an historical point of view may help put this weekend’s early Derby prep into perspective. The $400,000 Holy Bull will be run Sunday at Gulfstream Park with a field of six going the one-turn mile. The lead story line for this year’s Holy Bull Stakes is the 2012 debut of Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) winner and champion 2-year-old male Hansen (photo right).

Even if Hansen is successful in his debut, there have been few Holy Bull winners who also went on to don the blanket of roses in the winners’ circle of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1). The only Holy Bull winners to also win the Kentucky Derby later were Barbaro in 2006 (photo below left) and Go For Gin in 1994 but others have faired well enough at Churchill Downs.

First run in 1990 as The Preview Stakes, the Holy Bull was created to replace the Flamingo Stakes that had been run at then closed Hialeah race track. The Holy Bull has been run at three different distances in its more than 20-year history, going as far as 1-1/8 miles, to 1-1/16 miles, to its current distance of one mile in various orders and years.

The shortened distance makes the Holy Bull perhaps a more attractive prep race for horses that are considering the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown and need or want at least three starts to prepare for and attempt to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The Holy Bull is part of a series of graded races at Gulfstream Park for 3-year-olds that also includes the Feb. 26 Fountain of Youth (gr. II) at 1-1/16 miles and the 1-1/8 mile Florida Derby (gr. 1) on Mar. 31. This year the Kentucky Derby will be run May 5.

The 2011 Holy Bull Stakes produced two eventual Kentucky Derby starters in Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Dialed In gave trainer Nick Zito his record third victory in the Holy Bull Stakes last year (along with Go For Gin and Suave Prospect in 1995). Dialed In later won the Florida Derby last year before finishing a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby.

Third in last year’s Holy Bull, Mucho Macho Man would go on to also run third in the Kentucky Derby and join Animal Kingdom and Shackleford as the only horses to start in all three Triple Crown races last year. Mucho Macho Man was sixth in the Preakness (gr. I) and seventh in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).

West Side Bernie, third in the 2009 Holy Bull Stakes; and Homeboy Kris, third a year later in the Holy Bull, would both make the Kentucky Derby but neither fared well in their Run for the Roses. West Side Bernie was ninth behind Mine That Bird and Homeboy Kris was 16th in the Derby won by Super Saver.

Until last year when two Holy Bull starters made it the Kentucky Derby, the Holy Bull has not had a strong connection to the Derby. Recent Derby winning horsemen have leaned toward starting their promising sophomores only twice before the Kentucky Derby and closer to the race than the late January Holy Bull. Of the last five Kentucky Derby winners since Barbaro, all started in only two Kentucky Derby prep races with only Mine That Bird starting as early as February. The 2009 Derby winner began his 3-year-old year running second in the $100,000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park on Feb. 28.

Animal Kingdom last year, Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008) and Street Sense (2007) all made their first starts of their respective years in March preceding their Kentucky Derby wins.

Despite being the expected heavy favorite, a victory in Sunday’s Holy Bull is certainly not a necessity for Hansen. His winner’s check of $600,000 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile insures him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate if he can stay sound and competitive. The Derby is limited to 20 starters with earnings in graded races used to determine the eligible entrants. But the competition only gets tougher as the Derby draws near and it is doubtful that trainer Mike Maker and owners Dr. Hansen Kendall and Sky Chai Racing want to go to Louisville based only on last year’s accomplishments.

A victory in the Holy Bull would be much more impactful for any of the other five starters, of which none have any graded earnings. The $240,000 first-place check in the Holy Bull would place any of the other five in the top ten on the current list of 3-year-olds with graded earnings and likely enough to eventually qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Currently $105,000 in graded earnings makes the top 20, but that is likely to be a very fluid number during the next three months before those Derby slots are awarded.

Second and third-place checks of $80,000 and $40,000 in the Holy Bull respectively will leave plenty of work for those starting this race with a zero balance in their graded stakes bankrolls – but every little bit may help. West Side Bernie, Homeboy Kris and Mucho Macho Man have proven that a third in the late January Holy Bull does not qualify nor disqualify one from making it to Kentucky for the first Saturday in May.

If nothing else, a good performance in the Holy Bull Sunday remains important in creative rose colored hopeds for these six 3-year-olds, their connections and their quest to make it the prestigious Kentucky Derby.

Will Whitney Winner Lead Too?

From a wagering standpoint, the 2011 Whitney Handicap (gr. I) is Hall of Fame material. Eleven older horses are set to go 1-1/8 miles at Saratoga in the Whitney with the favorite at 4-1 odds in the morning line. The second choice is at 5-1 and three others have been given the third choice odds at 6-1.

Although a long shot winner in the Whitney would push an already confusing division into near boredom, there are plenty of horses who could take a legitimate step to the front of the older horse class with a win Saturday. But as the morning line indicates, this bunch is still very much close together in the race for any year-end honors.

Giant Oak (photo), the second choice in the morning line at 5-1 odds, has most credentials this year among his foes, as the only Whitney starter with a grade 1 win around two turns on a main track this year. But that win came in the Donn Handicap at Gulfstream Park in early February and is quickly becoming a distant memory. Since the Donn win, Giant Oak has been third in the New Orleans Handicap (gr. II) behind fellow Whitney entrants Mission Impazible and Apart. He then was on the losing end of a five-horse blanket finish in the Alysheba (gr. II) and fifth again behind long shot winner Pool Play in the grade 1 Stephen Foster, both at Churchill Downs.

Flat Out gets the Saratoga handicapper’s favoritism at 4-1 off of a nice win in the grade 2 Suburban at Belmont, after finishing sixth in the Foster and second behind Awesome Gem in the grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap. Trained by Midwest mainstay Charles Dickey, Flat Out is just beginning to earn some name recognition. The now 5-year-old horse had one win against optional claimers last year in one start. Before that, his last win was in the Smarty Jones Stakes in January of ’09 at Oaklawn while trying for the Kentucky Derby.

To characterize this group of Whitney entrants as under accomplished, is vastly unfair however.

The Nick Zito-trained Morning Line won the grade 1 Carter Handicap at seven furlongs in April, but then weakened to finish fifth in the grade 3 Salvator Mile at Monmouth Park. That performance was a bit surprising as distance has never been a challenge to the son of Tiznow. The 4-year-old Morning LIne won the grade 2 Pennsylvania Derby and an allowance race at Saratoga last year, both at nine furlongs.

The 6-year-old Tizway is another late developing son of Tiznow trying for summer fame in the Whitney. Tizway did not break his maiden until late in his 3-year-old year and didn’t win his first stake until June of last year when he won the grade 2 Kelso at Belmont Park. The James Bond trainee looked impressive in his front running victory in the grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont at one mile May 30 over Rodman, also a Whitney entrant.

Distance should be no trouble for Mission Impazible who won the Louisiana Derby and New Orleans Handicap, both grade 2, nine furlong races at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans. And in his last start, the 4-year-old son of Unbridled’s Song was just a neck short of Pool Play in the Foster at Chruchill Downs, also at 1-1/8 miles on the main track.

So there is nothing that says the Horse of the Year can’t come out of the Whitney Handicap. The last winner of the golden Eclipse Award to pass this way was Invasor, the Whitney Handicap winner and 2006 Horse of the Year.

Another interesting Whitney happened in 1978 when trainer John Vietch used the Whitney to prepare Alydar for the Travers and yet another race against just inaugurated Triple Crown winner Affirmed. Alydar won the Whitney by 10 lengths, while Affirmed was nearly been upset by Sensative Prince in the Jim Dandy. They met in the Travers, and although Affirmed crossed the wire first, he was disqualified and placed second behind new winner Alydar for interference.

Five-time Horse of the year Kelso (photo) was also fond of the Whitney Handicap, winning the race three times between 1961 and 1965. Ironically, the great gelding’s last Whitney victory in 1965 did not result in his sixth Horse of the Year title. Instead the trophy went to Mocassin, the only 2-year-old filly so honored in North American thoroughbred racing.

There is no Kelso, Alydar or even one as accomplished as Invasor in this 2011 Whitney. But nobody should be scoffing at the credentials Flat Out, Giant Oak and the like either. Quite frankly, asking for the second coming of another Kelso is a bit pretentious anyway. Don’t you think?

This Whitney will tell if any from Saturday’s group can be mentioned in the upcoming divisional championship discussions of the late Summer and Fall of each year. Right now, that’s all horse racing fans can ask. Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are doing their parts in keeping the female Horse of the Year “three-peat” alive while the males at both the 3-year-old and older levels continue to beat each other up round robin style.

There are plenty of bigger races for older horses coming up. Del Mar has the Pacific Classic later this month and Saratoga still has the Woodward on Labor Day weekend. Belmont has the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Santa Anita has the Goodwood in October, all grade 1 prep races for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic to be run at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of November.

It just that it’s getting very close to a time when somebody needs to step out of the pile.

Jumbled Group of 3-Year-Olds Reaching Fast Times Levels of Confusion

There hasn’t been a class like this since Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Literally. Not since 1982, when Sean Penn’s Jeff Spicoli said “Aloha” to Ray Walston’s Mr. Hand in the California teen-culture classic movie, has there been no 3-year-old with more than one grade 1 win at 1-1/8 miles or further on the main track this late in the year.

This schedule of grade 1 races begins just before the Triple Crown with the Florida Derby six weeks before the first Saturday in May. Other grade I Derby prep races include the the Santa Anita Derby, the Arkansas Derby, the Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. The grade I schedule continues with the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, the Preakness, Belmont which make up the Triple Crown, and continues with the Resorts World Casino Haskell Invitational. There is also the grade 1 Queen’s Plate run at Woodbine in Canada in late June or early July and the Travers Stakes run in late August.

Since 1982, there have been 13 years in which the Triple Crown races were won by three different horses. In fact, in the last three years, nine different horses have won the nine Triple Crown races in that span. There were also three different winners of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont in 2006, 2000, 1996,’93, ’92, ’90, ’86, ’85, ’83 and 1982.

In ten of those 13 years, there was yet a different winner of the Haskell. So it is not uncommon for the sophomore thoroughbred male picture to be so unclear this late in the year.

What is unique about this group, is that their inability as individuals two win two grade I races on the main track around two turns goes back to the major Kentucky Derby prep races in Florida, New York, California, Kentucky and Arkansas. This year's winners of those races were Dialed In, Toby’s Corner, Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed and Arch Arch Arch respectively. Then Animal Kingdom, Shackleford and Ruler on Ice won the Derby, Preakness and Belmont as Inglorious wins the Queen’s Plate and Coil wins the Haskell.

In fact, one has to go back 20 years to match this level of inconsistency through July among our star 3-year-olds.

In 1982 Gato Del Sol won the Kentucky Derby while Aloma’s Ruler, Conquistador Cielo and Wavering Monarch won the Preakness, Belmont and Haskell respectively. Six days prior to the Belmont Stakes, Conquistador Cielo won the grade 1 Metropolitan Mile Handicap over older horses, but that was around a one turn one mile at Belmont Park.

The prep races that year were won by Muttering (Santa Anita Derby), Timely Writer (Florida Derby), Air Forbes Won (Wood Memorial) and Hostage (Arkansas Derby). Son of Briartic won the Queen’s Plate that year.

There have been some classes get close to matching the infamous mid-season mark. In 1985, Tank’s Prospect won the Preakness after winning the Arkansas Derby, but was the only sophomore colt or gelding with two grade 1 wins as of Aug. 1. Eight years later, Prairie Bayou won the 1993 Blue Grass Stakes and the Preakness to become the only male 3-year-old with two grade I wins on his resume in the first seven months of that year. But both 1985 and 1993 had interesting circumstances that may mislead to assume apparent confusion in the grade 1 ranks in those years.

Spend A Buck (photo), winner of the 1985 Derby, skipped the Preakness in pursuit of big bonus money then offered by the folks at Garden State Park. That class also included Crème Fraiche, the middle member of trainer Woody Stephens’ five-consecutive Belmont victors; and the next two Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) champions in Florida Derby winner Proud Truth and Skywalker, winner of the Santa Anita Derby. Spend A Buck was named Champion 3-year-old and Horse of the Year that year.

In the 1993 Kentucky Derby, 12-1 shot Sea Hero upset favorite Prairie Bayou, who came to the Derby off his win the Blue Grass. Prairie Bayou managed second in Kentucky, but avenged his loss by winning the Preakness in his next start. Unfortunately, Prairie Bayou broke down in the Belmont Stakes and had to be euthanized. That day Colonial Affair made jockey Julie Krone the only female jockey to win a Triple Crown and Kissin Kris would win he Haskell to keep Prairie Bayou as the only dual grade 1 winner so far that year. Early the next year, owner John Ed Anthony accepted the Eclipse Award naming Prairie Bayou as the champion 3-year-old male of 1993.

This year, nationally acclaimed trainers Todd Pletcher, Nick Zito, Bob Baffert, Bill Mott, Dale Romans, Graham Motions and Kelly Breen have tried everything except the toolbox belonging to Spicoli’s dad in an effort to return their grade I victors to more grade I winners’ circles. But none have been able to muster much consistency out of their high profile trainees of this class to do so.

The next grade I for this bunch is the Travers Stakes at Saratoga Aug. 27. After that, the natural transgression then leads to races against older horses as the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont, and the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita lead to the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in early November.

Some grade I winners from this 2011 sophomore class are sidelined temporarily with minor injuries. Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Wood Memorial winner Toby’s Corner are among them. Others such as Arch Arch Arch have met early retirement due to more serious lameness issues. But the connections behind Ruler On Ice, Coil and Shackleford have indicated they are pointing toward the mid-Summer Derby at Saratoga.

So as Spicoli might say in Fast Times "If Baffert, Breen and Pletcher don't get their stars back in form pronto, this class of 3-year-olds might be remembered as bogus too. Get it?"

Animal Kingdom Gallops Into Preakness. Asmussen Not Sure On Nehro

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom will likely face a full field of challengers in the Preakness (gr. I) as it appears that at least 14 are pointing toward the second leg of the Triple Crown.

It will be the first time the Preakness starting gate will be filled with 14 starters since 2005 when 50-1 Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby. Prior to that, it was in 1992 when the Preakness last featured a full field. That year the Kentucky Derby was won by 16-1 shot Lil E. Tee with Casual Lies (29-1) second and Dance Floor (33-1). This year, Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby at 20-1 with 8-1 Nehro second and Mucho Macho Man (9-1) third.

The full 14-horse field does not concern Graham Motion, trainer of Animal Kingdom, who told the Preakness notes team that he is just hoping for a good post position.

Although the gate is expected to be full for the Preakness, the field has not yet been set in stone. Trainer Steve Asmussen and owner Ahmed Zayat have said they will make a decision Tuesday as to whether Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehor will go in the Preakness after watching him work a half-mile in :50-4/5 over a sloppy Churchill Downs track Monday the two

Nehro was second in his three previous races, the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) March 26, the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) April 16 and the May 7 Kentucky Derby so the Preakness would be the colt’s fourth start in just eight weeks. “He’s done a lot over a short period of time,” Asmussen said. “I think you’re trying to evaluate the runs, the races themselves and how he’s doing, while also trying to weigh the opportunity that is ahead of you.” Asmussen and Zayat are pondering whether to save Nehro and his come-from-behind running style for the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes or go this week in the Preakness.

If Nehro is not entered into the Preakness, that would make way for Isn’t He Perfect, most recently fifth in the Jerome.

Amsussen also worked Astrology a half-mile Monday at Churchill Downs. Considered a definite for the Preakness, Astrology covered the work in :50.60. Like his stable mate Nehro, Astrology also has three seconds in his last three starts going back to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) in November. After overcoming an illness this winter in Southern California, Astrology was also a runner-up in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) March 27 and the Jerome (gr. II) at Belmont Park April 23.

Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In is also set the Preakness after finishing eighth in the Kentucky Derby. Dialed In encountered two problems during the Run for the Roses which give his supporters plenty of hope in the Preakness. After being pinched back at the start, Dialed In found himself unusually far back from pace setter Shackleford. Hence, Dialed In’s second problem. Shackleford was able to slow the pace of the Kentucky Derby to a pedestrian pace while setting the slowest half-mile fractional time (:48.63) since 1947 making it even more difficult for the come-from-behind running style of Dialed In. “You just can’t win in those situations, but he came with his run,” trainer Nick Zito said. “It was probably the best eighth-place finish in Kentucky Derby history.”

Should Dialed In win the Preakness, it will be a $6.1 million payday for him. Dialed In won the Florida Derby (gr. I) at sister track Gulfstream Park fulfilling the first part of the 5.5 Bonus set up by the Magna Corporation. Should Dialed In also win the Preakness, he would earn the $5.5 million bonus to be added to $600,000 winner’s share of the Preakness should the son of Mineshaft win.

Sway Away, who just missed becoming eligible for the Kentucky Derby with his 21st rank in graded earnings, is set for the Preakness and hoping to follow in the footsteps of some of his family. Sway Away is the son of 2005 Preakness winner Afleet Alex and his dam is a daughter of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and granddaughter of 1990 Preakness winner Summer Squall.

Florida Derby Confirms, Changes and Provides Hope For Kentucky Plans

Like ugly pitchers and pretty quarterbacks, everybody loves a late running thoroughbred and an emotional Nick Zito. Who can forget the raspy sounding Zito thanking God and everybody within reach after Strike the Gold won the 1991 Kentucky Derby. Well Dialed In gave horse racing both again Sunday afternoon at Gulfstream Park when he won the grade 1 Florida Derby narrowly over a stubborn Shackleford in second.

“This particular horse [Dialed In], I’ve become attached to," Zito said Monday at his barn at Palm Meadows Training Center. "I’ve had a lot of great horses, but with this particular horse there’s something about him, the horse’s courage, the way he is. More importantly, you’re not supposed to do what he’s done in his young career,“ Zito continued. “It’s almost impossible to do the things he’s done. You get emotional. He defies a speed favoring track – he defies it.”

Zito said Monday that he would not be shipping Dialed In to Kentucky anytime soon and would instead remain at the Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida for at least a few more weeks. But there is not doubt they are headed to Kentucky where Zito will be trying to win his third Run for the Roses. Zito won the Kentucky Derby in 1991 with Strike the Gold and again in 1994 with Go For Gin.

Shackleford, the Florida Derby runner-up at odds of 68-1, will be leaving for Kentucky a little sooner according to his trainer Dale Romans. The question for Shackleford will be whether his $212,000 will be enough graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Derby. Shackleford added the $200,000 second-place Florida Derby check to his previous $12,000 earned while finishing fifth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) won by Soldat Feb. 26.

“We’ll see how everything shakes down and if the $212,000 will be good enough to get in,” Roman’s said Monday. “We won’t run him again. He’ll be pointed to the Derby and if doesn’t get in, we’ll give the Preakness a try.” Shackleford is currently ranked 20th on the list of graded stakes earnings by Kentucky Derby contenders. While that will be the final spot available to enter on May 4 for the Derby three days later, there are plenty of very rich graded stakes between now and the Kentucky Derby and that day. On the positive side for Shackleford, there are several horses ranked above the son of Forrestry that are questionable for the Kentucky Derby. The owners of Comma To The Top, currently sixth on the money list, have said the Kentucky Derby is not in their plans for the colt. Also ranked above Shackleford are three horses that finished well behind him in the Florida Derby.

Florida Derby favorite Soldat is ranked fifth on the list with $540,000 in graded earnings but was fifth in the Florida Derby, beaten more than 10 lengths by Dialed In. Florida Derby third-place finisher To Honor and Serve is ranked tenth with $350,000; and Stay Thirsty, seventh in the Florida Derby, has the 15th highest graded stakes earnings with $260,000.

“My gut tells me, ‘yeah, go on to the Kentucky Derby’” Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of Soldat, said Monday. “You’ve got the earnings and [the Florida Derby was the] first race he wasn’t first or second. But I’ll have to talk to all the owners.” McLaughlin also said the 3-year-old son of War Front came out of the Florida Derby with no concerns.

Unlike Soldat, To Honor and Serve has not had a good race this year. In his only two races as a 3-year-old, To Honor and Serve has finished third, more than 6-1/2 lengths behind the winner, in both the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth. Last year To Honor and Serve won the grade 2 Remsen Stakes at 1-1/8 miles over Mucho Macho Man but has yet to match that race as a sophomore. Bill Mott, his Hall of Fame trainer is also not one to be smitten over having a Kentucky Derby starter. In a training career that spans some 40 years, Mott has had only seven Kentucky Derby starters with Hold Me Back, 12th in 2009, as his most successful starter.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has not indicated as to whether Stay Thirsty will be heading to Kentucky for the Derby, but the odds are that he and owner Mike Repole will be looking elsewhere. Stay Thirsty was never a factor while finishing a well beaten sixth in the Florida Derby. Pletcher also trains Derby future book favorite Uncle Mo for Repole, so it not likely they will need Stay Thirsty to get to Churchill Downs for the Derby.

Whether To Honor and Serve, Soldat or Stay Thirsty head to Kentucky or not, one can be assured the list will change many times during the next four weeks leading up to the Derby. Millions of graded earnings have yet to be given away in New York, California, Illinois, Kentucky and Arkansas, so new names on the list of probable Kentucky Derby are likely to appear. Just as names fall of that list for various reasons as well.

Safe be it to say that the connections behind Shackleford will watch their colt fall of and return to the Derby list a few times in the next four weeks.

Deep Florida Derby Has Trainers In The Know

There is no question the Florida Derby (gr. 1) Sunday at Gulfstream Park is the deepest prep race for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands so far this year. And Sandra Bullock is more popular than Jesse James. The race has two horses that are ranked in the top five of most Derby watch lists this Spring, two other top ten candidates and four new comers to the Triple Crown trail including a monkey wrench. The eventual winner is the mystery.

The favorite is Soldat, a good looking son of War Front who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26. Although War Front was a sprinter and Soldat’s grandsire, Rubiano, was a champion sprinter, Soldat has had little trouble winning his two previous starts this year, both at the Florida Derby distance of 1-1/8 miles. Befor the Fountain of Youth, Soldat also won a 9 furlong allowance race in February by more than 10-1/2 lengths.

Soldat has used his speedy genetics to win both races from gate to wire, making one think jockey Alan Garcia might employ the same tactics in the Florida Derby. However, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (photo right) calls the game plan and it is doubtful he wants Soldat to race to the front Sunday. “He does everything right,” McLaughlin said on Televison Games Network. “The only thing I’d like to change is for him to get some dirt in his face. Whether it be in the Florida Derby or in the morning, we might do both. But on the first Saturday in May, you don’t want to be on the lead.”

Soldat has already fulfilled his morning “dirt in the face” requirement, beginning his Mar. 20 five furlong work behind two runners from the McLaughlin stable before accelerating around them to complete the assigned task. The grimy trip didn’t seem to bother Soldat much as he recorded a bullet work in 1:00 3/5, the fastest of 29 five-eighths of a mile works at Palm Meadows that morning. Odds are that McLaughlin wants to fulfill the other “dirt in the face” requirement Sunday.

Regardless of McLaughlin’s strategy, trainer Rick Dutrow looks to have his sights on the early lead in the Florida Derby with his late entrant Flashpoint. Like Soldat, Flashpoint is by a young sire who was successful on the track as a sprinter. His sire Pomeroy won the King’s Bishop and Kelso Handicap, both grade 1 races at seven furlongs in New York. Unlike Soldat, however, Flashpoint has never been further than the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes, a grade 2 race on Feb. 26 he won by seven and a half lengths.

Flashpoint breaks from the outside post in the eight-horse field, but he figures to the first leader in the Florida Derby and perhaps putting McLaughlin at some ease for the moment. Should Soldat also want the lead as his past performances may indicate, that would be the wrench du monkey previously mentioned.

A trainer that will be rooting for Soldat and Flashpoint to battle each early, is two-time Kentucky Derby winning condition Nick Zito, who saddles 2-1 second choice Dialed In. Considered among the future book favorites to win in Kentucky, the son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft is a classic late closer. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs coming from last in a 12-horse field and then won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) Jan. 30 at Gulfstream Park coming from last, ten lengths off the lead.

Scheduling challenges and a need to expand out to nine furlongs, forced Zito to run Dialed In against older horses in a Mar. 6 optional claiming. A slow pace in that race also presented a challenge for the young closer and jockey Julien Laparoux, but they rallied to finish second to remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Having some difficulty staying on the Derby track is To Honor and Serve who finished a tired looking third behind Soldat In the Fountain of Youth. Coming from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (photo left) somewhat eases those concerns for To Honor and Serve fans, but that does not reduce the necessity of a much improved performance in the Florida Derby in order to stay the Kentucky course.

If the Derby path had somehow narrowed to a straight line down the stretch of Aqueduct’s inner track on March 5, it is uncertain if Stay Thirsty would still be aboard. But the Derby path didn’t constrict and Stay Thirsty remains pointed toward Kentucky.

Although Stay Thirsty won the grade 3 Gotham Stakes that day, he looked less than professional in doing so. That day he broke poorly but jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to eventuall place him into contention. Turning for home, Stay Thirsty veered in without impeding another horse before then changing leads a few times. But his talent endurred and Stay Thirsty drew off to win the Gotham by just over three lengths.

It was the first start of the year for Stay Thirsty, so trainer Todd Pletcher looked at the Gotham with a glass half full attitude - seeing the room for improvement in his young son of Bernadini. He will put blinkers on Stay Thirsty in the Florida Derby to help him focus and seems confident he’ll see a smarter Stay Thirsty this time.

Rounding out the Florida Derby are Arch Traveler, Bowman’s Causeway and Shackleford, all at 20-1 and none of which are stakes winners.

There have been eleven Kentucky Derby winners who ran in the Florida Derby without winning. The most recent of those was Monarchos who took the 2001 Run for the Roses after finishing second in Florida. Before that, both Thunder Gulch (1995) and Go For Gin (’94) won Kentucky Derbies after finishing fourth in their respective Florida Derbies.

Pletcher, McLaughlin, Mott, Pletcher and Zito probably know of a few of those horses. Zito does. He trained Go For Gin. The four trainers also know their horses likely have enough graded earnings to qualify for the big prize at Churchill. And despite the $1 million purse in Florida, the riches and prestige of the Kentucky have no rival in North American horse racing – perhaps even the world.

So a loss Sunday does not present any type of third strike or punch off the proverbial trail to the Kentucky Derby. But the talent in this field in abundant and wide spread – even hidden, perhaps, in one of the three long shots. The light prep races disappeared with the days of February and March and time is eroding the options for change as the first Saturday in May nears.

Still the Florida Derby is not life or death. But a bad race by any of the promising contenders will surely cause less than comfortable illness for the previously hopeful connections. You can bet the four trainers know that too.

Fountain of Youth Is Next Step To Maturity On Derby Trail

The first trimester of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brand (gr. 1) season of preparation ends this weekend with the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park in the biggest spotlight. The $400,000, 1-1/8 race for 3-year-olds will be the last major race along the Triple Crown trail for the month of February with now only March and April before the Run for the Roses in May.

There is also the Borderland Derby at Sunland Park, the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise in Phoenix, Arizona and the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulstream Park this weekend, but none are expected to have the impact on the Derby like the Fountain of Youth field.

There have been a number of notable Derby prep races in February and most were won by respectful but short of awe inspiring winners. Brethren looked very good while winning the Sam F. Davis (gr. 3) at Tampa Bay Downs, but the Todd Pletcher trainee fell short of impressing the speed figure and numbers handicappers in that race. Dialed In had a nice come from-behind win in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) Gulfstream Park and has the benefit of trainer Nick Zito. But the Mineshaft colt missed this weekend’s Fountain of Youth which at least raises some doubts.

Mucho Macho Man finished fourth behind Dialed In in the Holy Bull then came back to take the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 2) at Fair Grounds. Although the Risen Star wasn’t that deep of a field, Mucho Macho Man seems to be moving in the right direction - and improvement this time of year is a valuable commodity for a 3-year-old thoroughbred.

Further West, trainer Bob Baffert unleashed The Factor in the seven furlong San Vincente Stakes (gr. 3) in February, and again, it was a solid performance. But like Dialed In, Baffert may not have as many opportunities as may like to prepare for the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby. The grade 3 Sunland Derby Mar. 27 or the Mar. 19 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas are possibilities.

This is no knock on the winner’s of the these graded races in February, but the reality is that of those four races only the Holy Bull and San Vincente have had winners go on to also take the Derby. In 1994 Go For Gin won both the Holy Bull and Kentucky Derby and Barbaro won both races in 2006. No horse has ever won both the Risen Star and the Derby nor the Sam Davis and Derby. Three horses have taken the Derby and San Vincente, but one has to go back to Silver Charm in 1997 to find the most recent. The other two were 30 and 40 years previous to Silver Charm in Lucky Debonair in 1965 and Swaps in 1955.

While there has not been a superstar performance among the sophomores this year, many of more anticipated contenders have yet to make a stakes appearance including 2010 Champion Two-Year-Old Male Uncle Mo – set for a March 12 race in either the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream or the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs the same day.

The other 3-year-old near the top of most Derby lists yet to debut this year is To Honor and Serve, winner of the Remsen Stakes (gr. 2) (video below) and Nashua Stakes (gr. 2) last year. But To Honor and Serve will be making his first start in nearly 90 days this weekend as the favorite in the Fountain of Youth. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has expressed little concern however, saying To Honor and Serve may be his best chance to win the Kentucky Derby and has seemed pleased with the colts winter training regime in Florida.

The Fountain of Youth will also be the second start of the year for Soldat, a winner of an 1-1/8 allowance race at Gulfstream Park by more than 10 lengths Jan. 21. Last year Soldat concluded the year by finishing second behind Pluck in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. 2T) after winning the grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga last summer, also on grass. But trainer Kiaran McLaughlin had to like what he saw when Soldat seemed to even excel on dirt in that recent allowance win. With little doubt Soldat likes the Gulfstream main track at least.

Also interesting about Soldat is his pedigree. He is by War Front, who was more of a sprinter as a race horse but who also won the minor Princelet Stakes at Belmont Park at 1-1/16 miles. Also known as a sire of sprinters, War Front has San Vincente Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor on the Triple Crown trail with trainer Bob Baffert in Southern California as well.

Gourmet Dinner is another making his second start of 2011 after finishing third behind winner Dialed In and runner-up Sweet Ducky in the Holy Bull. However, in the Holy Bull, Gourmet Dinner finished ahead of Mucho Macho Man in fourth. Mucho Mach Man of course, won his next start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 2) at Fair Grounds Feb. 19. Trainer Steve Stanbridge has also made a rider change for the son of Trippi, giving the reins aboard Gourmet Dinner to Ramon Dominguez.

Among other Fountain Youth starters is the trio of Shakleford, Casper’s Touch and El Grayling, the top three finishers in a Feb. 5 allowance race at Gulfstream Park, also at the 1-1/8 mile distance. While Shackleford was the winner, Casper’s Touch was closing second after overcoming plenty of trouble in that race.

Like the Holy Bull Stakes, the Fountain of Youth has seen only two of it’s winners go on to take the Derby in Kentucky. Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Thunder Gulch in 1995 both won the Fountain of Youth on their way to the Derby winner’s circle.

It would be difficult to be certain that this year’s Kentucky Derby winner will be running in the Fountain of Youth Stakes Saturday, but it is certainly the most serious Derby prep to date and this field has it's share of potential that previous runnings may not have had. And this time of year, potential is just what we'll be looking for.

Holy Bull Has Plenty of Character

Since there is no official starting date when the road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands begins, it is fair to say, “we are underway” with Sunday’s Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. Yes, some say last weekend’s Le Comte Stakes at Fair Grounds may have been more of an official launching point, but never-the-less, things are starting to heat up a little in the 3-year-old thoroughbred ranks.

Some may say that the defection of Boys At Tosconova, who has been among the favorites for the Derby over the winter, compromises the Holy Bull in terms of it actually being a Derby prep, but there is certainly plenty of character - if not down right potential - among the remainders.

In the short 21-year history of the Holy Bull, it has produced two Kentucky Derby winners in Go For Gin (1994) and Barbaro in 2006. So its place as the launching pad of Derby preps at Gulfstream Park has served it well. Although Barbaro won the Holy Bull when it was run at 1-1/8 miles and Go For Gin won a 1-1/16 mile version of the Holy Bull. For second consecutive years now, the Holy Bull will be run at a mile around one turn.

The next stops are the Feb. 26, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes and the $1 million Florida Derby April 3, both at 1-1/8 miles.

Among those still going into the Holy Bull is Mucho Macho Man, a son of the Holy Bull sire Macho Uno. Mucho Macho Man has been the runner-up to To Honor and Serve – another prime Derby hopeful – in his last two races in the Nashua Stakes Nov. 6 and the Remsen Stakes Nov. 27, both grade 2 stakes at Aqueduct and both very fast. Intriguing for Much Macho Man fans however, was the fact that he made up two lengths on To Honor and Serve in the Remsen at 1-1/8 miles. How he handles his short winter vacation and the one-turn mile will be signs that might boost him on Derby lists.

Another character in the Holy Bull is Gourmet Dinner, winner of the grade 3 Delta Jackpot Stakes at Delta Downs in Louisiana November 20. What makes Gourmet Dinner a bit of a Derby stratagem is that the Delta Jackpot featured a $750,000 purse giving him – in all likelihood – more than enough graded earnings to qualify for the Run for the Roses. The Florida-bred son of Trippi, who now stands in South Africa, added to his credibility with a fourth place finish after a less than optimal trip in the grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park.

Of course one should hardly talk of any winter horse racing event in South Florida having charisma without the appearance of trainer Nick Zito. He has entered Dialed In, an impressive son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft, who broke his maiden in come-from-behind fashion at Churchill Downs Nov. 12. Zito is looking for his third Holy Bull after winning the stake back-to-back with Go For Gin and Suave Prospect in 1995.

Add to the cast a Dale Romans-trained son of Devil His Due in Black N Beauty, coming out of consecutive wins in a Churchill maiden special weight and a Gulfstream allowance and the Holy Bull looks to have plenty of interests and opportunities on which it can stand.

San Pasqual and Hal's Hope among first pages of 2011 Older Horse Story

No doubt the older horse ranks of 2011 have been depleted with the retirement of Horse of the Year candidates Zenyatta and Blame, as well as stars Rachel Alexandra, Quality Road and Lookin at Lucky. Those five horses alone will leave quite a void in the handicap division and horse racing as a whole.

But the new year has just been celebrated and it’s time to look ahead.

The preview of the older horse class of 2011 got an early start with the the grade 1 Hill ‘N’ Dale Cigar Mile at Aqueduct November 27, where we saw 34-1 longshot Jersey Town upset Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) winner Haynesfield. Finishing an uncharacteristic eighth in the Cigar Mile was Musket Man, a determined competitor with six wins from 18 career starts who has only finished off the board in two of those races. In the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) he was stepped on in the first turn and was never in contention.

It appears all three of the aforementioned Cigar Mile horses will be back in 2011.

On the west coast, trainer John Sadler started the Santa Anita season with a bang the day after Christmas winning both the grade 1 Malibu Stakes with Twirling Candy; and the grade III Sir Beauford Stakes with last year’s Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) winner Sidney’s Candy (photo right). On a very fast and new, natural dirt surface at Santa Anita, Twirling Candy broke the main dirt track record for seven furlongs, a record previously set by Spectacular Bid in 1980, by stopping the clock in 1:19.70. Almost equally impressive was Sidney’s Candy in winning the Sir Beauford (gr. III) by more than seven lengths. Both appear to be pointing for 4-year-old campaigns in 2011 with Twirling Candy set for the Strub Series at Santa Anita which also includes the Jan. 15 San Fernando (gr. II) for 4-year-olds going 1-1/16 miles and the Feb. 5 Strub Stakes (gr. II) at nine furlongs.


Also in Southern California, trainer Bob Baffert has said 6-year-old Richard’s Kid will be back for 2011, however his schedule may include the Dubai World Cup (gr. 1-UAE) which usually negates a North American campaign for much of the year. However the trainer may still have some options as he has indicated that Misremembered, winner of the 2010 Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I), will be back in 2011. Baffert also has Alcindor, although fourth in the Malibu in his most recent start, he is a colt who has captured some attention in Southern California.

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) winner Dakota Phone is also slated for a 2011 return Saturday. Although he finished fourth behind Aggie Engineer in the Dec. 4 Native Diver Handicap over Hollywood Park’s Cushion track after his Breeder's Cup win at Churchill Downs, the Jerry Hollendorfer trainee gets a rematch with Aggie Engineer over Santa Anita’s new dirt surface in the grade II San Pasqual Handicap.

There will be a preview of the handicap division on the East coast Saturday as well at Gulfstream Park in the grade III Hal’s Hope Stakes. Won last year by Quality Road, the 2011 version is headed by the Todd Pletcher-trained Rule and the Morning Line from the Nick Zito barn.

Rule will be making his first start since finishing third last year in the Florida Derby (gr. I) behind Ice Box. On the other hand, Morning Line begins his 4-year-old season after winning the Pennsylvania Derby (gr. II) in September and finishing second to Dakota Phone in the Breeders’ Cup Mile.

So the handicap class of 2011 doesn’t have as much star power as last year’s group. The reality is that few ever have or ever will. You don’t find Zenyattas and Rachel Alexandras in every generation. But this group has plenty of intrigue and uncertainty, which of course, is supposed to make for better horse racing. And it’s time to put down the champagne and find out who we’ll be debating about this time next year in the Horse of the Year race.

Time Not On The Side of Ice Box

In looking at Ice Box in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) I don't see much wrong with the performance. Like most runners with a come-from-behind style, he seemingly galloped along far back behind a solid pace then excelled with agility and speed on the far turn, raced around the field and chased down the stubborn leaders Rule and Pleasant Prince for the win.

No doubt the quick pace benefited Ice Box and the stalking Pleasant Prince while potentially hindering the chances of front-running Rule, but a similar if not quicker pace is more than likely in the Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses will also be a run through traffic for Ice Box and any other late runners and the large field in Kentucky will accentuate racing luck.

There are two obvious points to make about the 2010 Florida Derby however. First, it was without the first three finishers from the main local prep, the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2), including the impressive winner Eskendereya who defected to New York for the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) in two weeks. Which takes us to the second point regarding the Florida Derby and it's new time slot six weeks before the Derby.



That timing makes the Florida Derby a bit like mama bear's porridge. A month and-a-half may be too long to train leading up to the biggest race in the world. And it may not be enough time to squeeze in another start. Thus the delimma for Nick Zito (photo) and Wesley Ward, the trainers of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince respectively.

The Florida Derby has a long history of producing Kentucky Derby winners, but it also has a reputation for moving around the calendar. Thunder Gulch won the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby in 1995, as did Monarchos in 2001. But there was a seven week gap before Kentucky during those years. Both horses raced again before winning their Derbies and both finished second - Thunder Gulch in the Louisiana Derby and Monarchos in the Wood Memorial.

Big Brown and Barbaro, the last two Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winners in 2008 and '06 respectively, both had only five weeks between the two races. Both went directly from Florida to Kentucky.

Neither Zito nor Ward have indicated their plans, other than to say they both want to go to Kentucky, as does trainer Todd Pletcher with Florida Derby third-place finisher Rule. All three trainers are well qualified to take the Derby but only Zito has done it - with Strike the Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994.

Zito did tell ESPN's Paul Moran that he is "going to try as hard as I can to win the Kentucky Derby with this horse." Coming from Zito that means something. But how he plans to manage it, remains to be seen. Then comes the if.