History May Help Find A Kentucky Derby Winner

The group of 3-year-old colts contesting this year’s Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) is a puzzling one indeed and will present a tall task to those who will try to handicap them and find a winner. Dialed In and Archarcharch are the only two starters with more than one graded stakes victory this year. Dialed In won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) in February and the Florida Derby in (gr. 1) April 3 – both at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. Archarcharch won Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) in February and the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) April 16.

Derby contenders Watch Me Go paid $89.40 in winning the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2); Twice the Appeal paid $53.20 to win the Sunland Derby (gr. 3) and Midnight Interlude returned $29.80 to his supporters in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Archarcharch paid $31.00 in the Southwest and $52.40 to win the Arkansas Derby.

The search for that extra bit of information that may be the breakthrough tidbit of handicapping insight is a difficult one indeed. If you believe history repeats itself, then perhaps a look back at where other Kentucky Derby winners came from will be of some aid.

Among all of the Kentucky Derby prep races, the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. 1) at Keeneland has produced the most winners of the Run for the Roses with 23. However, since Polytrack was installed on the main track at Keeneland in 2006, only Street Sense in 2007 had run in the Blue Grass,(finishing second to Dominican), before going on to win the Derby. Of the 23 horses that came out of the Blue Grass to win the Derby, only 11 were winners of the Blue Grass as well. The last to win both races was Strike the Gold in 1991.

The Blue Grass stats speak well for three potential starters in the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, May 7, including Blue Grass winner Brilliant Speed, runner-up Twinspired and Santiva, who as the 2-1 favorite finished ninth. Twinspired is hoping to follow in the footsteps of seven Blue Grass place finishers that would go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Don’t fret too much for Santiva either. Derby winners Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder Gulch (1995) were both unplaced in the Blue Grass before they hit the Churchill Downs winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.

The Florida Derby has produced the second-most Kentucky Derby winners with 21, including two of the last four and three during the oughts decade. Barabaro (photo) won the Florida-Kentucky Derby double in 2006 and Big Brown achieved the same in 2008. Nine years ago, Monarchos won both the Florida and Kentucky Derbies in 2001 but sqeezed in a second behind Congaree in the Wood Memorial between the two wins. A dozen of the 21 Kentucky Derby winners who had raced in the Florida Derby won both races including Thunder Gulch in 1995. Like Monarchos, after Florida, Thunder Gulch raced again before going to Churchill Downs – finishing fourth in the Blue Grass.

This year, Dialed In won the Florida Derby in a close finish over long shot Shackleford. Both are probable starters in the Kentucky Derby along with Soldat, who finished fifth in the Florida Derby as the 3-2 favorite.

New York’s main prep race has also produced its share of Kentucky Derby winners with 20 of them coming out of the Wood Memorial. The last two Derby winners to come out of the Aqueduct prep race were Funny Cide in 2003 and Monarchos. Like Monarchos, Funny Cide also finished second in the Wood Memorial, but that was the final prep race for the New York-bred gelding. The highly regarded Empire Make defeated Funny Cide on his way to becoming the favorite in Kentucky, but Funny Cide turned the tables in Kentucky, winning by 1-1/4 lengths ahead of Empire Maker in second.

The last six years, however, the road to the Kentucky Derby has been a rough one for winners of the Wood Memorial. Bellamy Road won the 2005 Wood by 14-1/2 lengths and was headed to favoritism in Kentucky before he was withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby due to injury. I Want Revenge (2009) and Eskendereya (2010) followed eerily similar paths after their Wood wins, also scratched due to injuries in the days before being the Kentucky Derby favorites.

Toby’s Corner, winner of the Wood Memorial this year, will not have to worry about that curse as he will not be the favorite in Kentucky. Uncle Mo, third in the Wood this year as the 1-10 favorite, is hoping to follow in the footsteps of the great Secretariat who got the show spot in the 1973 Wood before going on to Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and fame beyond.

Next on the list of prep races producing the most Kentucky Derby winners are the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) with 15 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) with 12. The San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) is the only other prep race to produce double digit Kentucky Derby winners with 11.

These races from the past logically have little to do with the 2006 Kentucky Derby and prep races thereof. But in attempting to find a winner among the Kentucky Derby cast of 2011, we need all the help we can get.

Masters and Road to Kentucky Derby Have Similarities This Year

While watching The Master golf tournament Sunday, I began to notice some similarities and parallels between golf’s major event at Augusta National Golf Club and this year’s road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1). Like the last three grade 1 prep races for the Run for the Roses, (Florida Derby, New York Casino Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby), the last nine holes of The Masters had eight different names on the lead. There are no female members of the Augusta National Golf Club, just as there are no female thoroughbreds with Kentucky Derby dreams.


Looking at the races leading up to the Derby in a more general sense, there was a clear cut favorite coming into the weekend. Uncle Mo was undefeated, atop nearly every Kentucky Derby watch list and the 2010 undisputed champion of his division. Uncle Mo had quickly taken control of his previous races by racing immediately to the lead at the start, maintaining that lead with confidence, then pulling away from the field down the stretch.

Like Uncle Mo, Rory McIlroy is young and obviously very talented. At the end of the first round of the Masters Thursday, the brilliant 21-year-old from Northern Ireland went to the clubhouse with a score of seven under par and the early lead. Friday and Saturday were much the same for McIlroy as Sunday, he took a four-shot lead into the the final round at Augusta at 12 shots under par.

McIlroy bogeyed the first hole Sunday, missing a testy five foot put for par.

Uncle Mo’s Wood Memorial did not start well either, as he literally stumbled out of the starting gate. Before finding his stride.

McIlroy never really found his stride Sunday. On the par 5 second hole, McIlroy puts his drive in a fairway bunker then his second shot catches the lip of the bunker leaving an extremely long approach to a front pin position. McIlroy saves par but things are not going well as Carl Schwartzel eagles number 4 and McIlroy’s lead has vanished.

At some point during the early running of the Wood Memorial, perhaps when he stumbled, Uncle Mo grabs a portion of a front hoof with a back foot while running. The injury is minor and trainer Todd Pletcher said the injury was not an excuse for the poor performance. It couldn't have helped either.

McIlroy lost the lead in The Masters when he triple bogeys the tenth hole. He hit a tree on that hole approaching the green.

Unlike McIlroy, Uncle Mo looked like a winner for most of the running of the Wood Memorial. Although Uncle Mo didn’t hit a tree just before he gave up the lead to Author’s Tale inside the final furlong, it looked like he might have. Turning for home, jockey John Velazquez gave Uncle Mo the signal to start running and the colt responded. But then suddenly, it appeared as if Uncle Mo was finished as Author’s Tale quickly ran by Uncle Mo before eventual winner Toby’s Corner as well, even more rapidly.

Again, both Uncle Mo and Rory McIlroy are young and talented. McIlroy’s trade as a golfer will surely last years longer than Uncle Mo’s career as a race horse, but the odds are that they will both be heard from again.

There other parallels between The Masters final day and some other three-year-old thoroughbreds heading for Churchill Downs. Florida Derby winner Dialed In – who is perhaps now the pre-race favorite for the Kentucky Derby - likes to stay out of trouble by laying back in the pack before making a late run at the early leaders for his wins.

Masters champion Carl Schwartzel didn’t stay out of trouble all day, but stayed close enough to finish with a late run of four straight birdies on the final four holes of the Masters to win going away.

Adam Scott and Jason Day finished The Master two shots back of Schwartzel on the final leaderboard. Bo Van Pelt made a run with two eagles on the back nine but could manage no better than eighth place at eight under par. While these young men are obviously not new to the PGA tour, they did represent a wave of young names new to the average golf fan.

So too can be said of Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, Toby’s Corner and and Florida Derby winner Shackleford. Like Tiger Woods, Geoff Olgivy and Angel Cobrerra, don’t expect to say good bye easily to the more recognized Kentucky Derby contenders like The Factor, Comma to the Top, and Mucho Macho Man.

But like The Masters final leaderboard, the road to the Kentucky Derby has some new travelers.

Uncle Mo And The Wood Memorial Curse

This Saturday, it is expected that Uncle Mo (photo below left) will walk into the Aqueduct Race Track starting gate in Queens, New York as the heavy post time favorite in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1). Given that, and his undefeated record and two-year-old championship, it is also expected that he will win the Wood and move into Churchill Downs as the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) on May 7.

In order for the son of Indian Charlie to go on to historic Kentucky Derby accolades, he will have to overcome circumstances that have plagued so many Wood Memorial winners who have either been victimized by injury before the Kentucky Derby, or unable to fulfill their expectations on the first Saturday in May.

Few decades have been as difficult on Wood Memorial winners than that of the oughts in the new century. If nothing else, Uncle Mo owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher can be grateful of a new decade. Although that ten year span seems to have been the most difficult on Wood winners, the Kentucky trouble for New York winners goes many years before that.

The most recent decade before the 2010s, began with trainer Bob Baffert winning his first Wood Memorial with Congaree over Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner Monarchos. While Congaree would be third choice in the Kentucky Derby at just more than 7-1 odds behind favorite Point Given (also trained by Baffert) and Dollar Bill, he came to Kentucky amid plenty of optimism off of his Wood victory.

After stalking the early leaders in the Kentucky Derby that year, Congaree raced six-wide around the far turn of the Kentucky Derby and took the lead at the top of the stretch. However, the late charging Monarchos took advantage of Congaree's record setting Derby first mile and passed him with less than a sixteenth of a mile to go, drawing off to win by more than four lengths. Invisible Ink caught Congaree at the wire for second while the Wood winner had to settle for third.

Two years later, Empire Maker and trainer Bobby Frankel would become the next Wood winning disappointments. Empire Maker had also won the Florida Derby before winning the Wood, so by the time the the first Saturday in May rolled around, the royally-bred son of 1990 Kentucky Derby winner and champion Unbridled was a solid favorite at 5-2 odds at Churchill Downs.

Hall of Fame jockey Jerry Baily was able to negotiate almost a perfect trip for Empire Maker in the Kentucky Derby as he rallied from eighth to third to second at the top of the stretch. The two would take on a little New York-bred gelding they had defeated in the Wood, but Funny Cide would turn the Wood exacta around in Kentucky by holding off runner-up Empire Maker by a length and three-quarters.

Another two-year gap and Bellamy Road is winning an allowance race at Gulfstream Park by nearly 16 lengths in his sophomore year debut. Owned by George Steinbrenner’s Kinsman Farm, Bellamy Road then won the Wood Memorial by 17-1/2 lengths and equaled the track record in doing so. The colt would go to Kentucky as a solid 3-1 favorite over Arkansas Derby (gr. 2) winner Afleet Alex, but could not manage a rally and finish seventh in a Kentucky Derby won by 50-1 long shot Giacomo.

The last two Wood Memorial winners were perhaps the most frustrating – not because they were unable to live up to expectations on the Churchill Downs race track, but because they were victimized by injuries. What makes both their stories so extra difficult was that both lost their Kentucky Derby dreams in the final days leading up to the big race.

I Want Revenge had won the 2009 Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) by 8-1/2 lengths after moving to the natural dirt tracks of New York from the synthetics of California. On the West Coast, I Want Revenge had chased home Pioneerof the Nile in both the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park and the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. 3) in their 3-year-old debuts at Santa Anita. But once exposed to racing on natural dirt, I Want Revenge seemed to improve greatly.

There was no question about I Want Revenge and his fondness for natural soil after winnning the Gotham Stakes in New York by 8-1/2 lengths. Then in the Wood, he and jockey Joe Talamo overcame a terrible break to race into contention around the far turn. At the top of the stretch, I Want Revenge looked ready to pounce on the leaders before the window slammed shut on the wall of horses in front of them. After steadying I Want Revenge to almost a gallop, Talamo steered the big colt to the outside for what looked like a futile attempt at winning the Wood. Then I Want Revenge seem to personify his name and accelerated to win by a length and a half as track announcer Tom Durkin exclaimed, “a remarkable victory by I Want Revenge!”

Everything went well for I Want Revenge leading up to the Kentucky Derby. His works were fast and trainer Jeff Mullins was happy. Then, the morning of the Kentucky Derby, swelling and heat was discovered in the left front ankle of I Want Revenge. Mullins scratched his promising colt just hours before the race and another Wood Memorial star had bitten the Kentucky dust during the decade.

A year later, Eskendereya (photo right) would win the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park by more than eight lengths before going to New York for the Wood Memorial. Also trained by Todd Pletcher, Eskendereya had little trouble in New York, winning the Wood by nearly 10 lengths in a runaway.

Again a Wood Memorial winner was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby in the weeks leading up to the Run for the Roses. But on April 25, just days before the race, the injury monster again hit the Wood winner with swelling in the left ankle. This time it was the ankle belonging to Eskendereya and trainer Todd Pletcher was forced to withdraw I Want Revenge from Kentucky Derby contention.

Whether a curse can be established after only ten years is left to the judgment of an individual. After all, Fusaichi Pegasus won both the Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby in 2000. Pleasant Colony (1981), Seattle Slew (’77), Bold Forbes (’76) and Foolish Pleasure (’75) also won in Kentucky and New York.

This list of Wood Memorial winners who lost as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby includes Captain Bodgit (’97), Unbridled’s Song (’96), Easy Goer (’89), Private Terms (’88), Bold Ruler (’57), Nashua (’55) and Native Dancer (’53) going back 60 years.

Certainly races that occurred in 1996, 1989 and 1957 have little or no effect on the 2011 Wood Memorial and Kentucky Derby, regardless of the success of Uncle Mo Saturday. But then again, there is no reason to believe that the Bambino has a monopoly on New York sports curses either.

Does Big Wood Equal Derby Win For Eskendereya?

There are many things that can happen between now and May 1 when the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands is run, but something significant will have to happen to keep Wood Memorial (gr. 1) winner Eskendereya from being honored as the post time favorite. In fact, he may be a quite heavy favorite by Kentucky Derby standards - maybe in the 8-5 range depending on what happens in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) at Oaklawn Park and the Bluegrass Stakes (gr. 1) at Keeneland this weekend.

Eskendereya is currently second behind Santa Anita Derby winner Sidney's Candy in the TBA standings sponsored by OCD Pellets.

But recent memories of Derby favorites coming out of the Wood Memorial winner's circle have not been positive for the most recent 20 years. Going back to 1982, eight winners of the Wood have become the post time favorite for the Derby. During that span, only Fusaichi Pegasus (photo right) in 2000 has managed to win the Derby coming out of the Wood as the favorite. Last year I Want Revenge was the morning line and early betting favorite, but scratched the morning of the race. Trainer Nick Zito brought Bellamy Road to Kentucky after he won the Wood by 17-1/2 lengths and equaled Riva Ridge's track record set in 1973. Bellamy Road finished seventh in the Derby as the 7-2 favorite.

Two years earlier, Funny Cide, after finishing second to Empire Maker in the Wood, turned the tables and won the Derby. Empire maker was second as the favorite at 5-2 odds.

The 1970s was a good time for Wood Memorial winners as Foolish Pleasure (1975), Bold Forbes (1976) and Seattle Slew (1977), all took the Wood/Kentucky Derby Double. However, Bold Forbes missed favoritism at 3-1 behind Honest Pleasure who was bet down to 2-5 before finishing second.

Before that, one has to go back more than 40 years to find a Wood Memorial winner that took the Derby as a favorite. Although Wood winners Dancer's Image (1968) and Assault (1946), both won the Derby, neither was the favorite for the Run for the Roses.

In 1943 Count Fleet won the Wood Memorial and then took the Derby as the heavy 2-5 favorite on his way to becoming the sixth Triple Crown winner. Thirteen years earlier, Gallant Fox won the Derby at even odds after taking the Wood. He would later become the second horse to win the Triple Crown.

Between those two, Twenty Grand took the 1931 Wood/Derby double at even odds in the Derby and Johnstown did the same with 3-5 Derby odds. Both were favorites.

In all, 26 winners of the Wood Memorial have made their next start in Louisville as the favorite but only seven have won. That's about a 27% win percentage and about 6 points lower than one-in-three, the industry's generally accepted level of percentage of winning favorites give or take a few points depending on the track.

There have been some historical names at short prices go down in Kentucky as the favorite coming from New York as well. Native Dancer (53), Olympia (49) and Easy Goer (89) were the only odds-on favorites of the group but both Damascus and Nashua were defeated as very popular 8-5 choices. Bold Ruler topped the win pool at 6-5 in the 1957 Derby but finished sixth. Fighting Fox (38) and Stir Up (44) were also highley regarded New Yorkers at 7-5 but they finished sixth and third respectively.

Now logic will tell you that none of these past races have little bearing on whether Eskendereya will win, be the favorite or even start in the 2010 Kentucky Derby. He has a few races to go before he can attract legitimate comparisons to Native Dancer, Damascus or Easy Goer but in fairness he appears likely to achieve additional accolades from the media and fans alike. At least I hope so. Super stars are always good for racing.

But before you tell somebody that Eskendereya can't lose in the Derby. I'm just sayin'.... it's happened before.

Eskenderya Perfect. Lookin at Lucky Not

If one could envision a perfect preparation for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), it might look a lot like Eskendereya's Wood Memorial (gr. 1). Jockey John Velazquez spent more energy looking for challengers in the final quarter mile of the Wood than urging Eskendereya. And Eskendereya apparently knew it. Down the stretch his ears were pricked as if asking the jockey for instructions or perhaps permission - permission to run faster.

Instead, Velazquez only rode, relaxed and probably relished in the machine beneath him. All while galloping past the wire 8-1/2 lengths ahead of Jackson Bend, Awesome Act and Schoolyard Dreams.


The picture perfect Wood Memorial by Eskendereya will make him the favorite - or maybe heavy favorite - for the Kentucky Derby to be run May 1.

Bob Baffert, the trainer of west coast favorite Lookin at Lucky in the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby Saturday, perhaps could not have envisioned a more unpleasant preparation for Kentucky. He saw Lookin at Lucky crowded shortly after the break by Cardiff Giant and almost dropped around the turn by Who's Up only to see his horse valiantly rebound for third when many horses would have quit.

After the Santa Anita Derby, Baffert criticized jockey Garrett Gomez. Gomez punched Victor Espinoza (jockey of Who's Up), who then got punched again by the Santa Anita board of stewards with a 3-day suspension for careless riding. Gomez also got slapped with a fine for punching.

Meanwhile, Sidney's Candy had just won the Santa Anita Derby by 4-1/2 lengths ahead of the late charging Setsuko and the rebounding Looking at Lucky in third. Although he drew away from the field down the stretch, he was coming off of slow fractions of :24.00 seconds for the first quarter and :48.50 for the half. He won't get away with a waltz like that on the lead in the Derby, which is why I don't have any higher than eighth on my Elite Eight this week.

American Lion won the Illinois Derby (gr. 2) Saturday and looked good while pulling away from second-place finisher Yuwanna Twist. American Lion also got away with easy fractions with the first half-mile in a 49.32 seconds. But American Lion had 8-5 favorite Yuwanna Twist on his flanks almost the entire trip around the track. But it is the first good race of the year for American Lion and additional improvement will be needed in Kentucky.



The Kentucky Derby Elite Eight
1-Eskendereya: He improved on his Fountain of Youth in the Wood with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure with a stretch run that more resembled a stroll.
2-Lookin at Lucky: The trip handicapper in me keeps this horse among the top contenders still. Although after two terrible trips and the Rebel and Santa Anita Derby, hoping for the first clear trip in three races among the Kentucky Derby field of 20, may be a little naive.
3-Noble's Promise: Ran a big race in the Rebel to almost take down Lookin at Lucky and may well be among the favorites in the Arkansas Derby Saturday.
4-Odysseus: His very late move in the last 100 yards of the Tampa Bay Derby was unusual, but impressive. He runs in the Bluegrass Stakes Saturday at Keeneland in his final prep.
5-Setsuko: The pedestrian pace in the Santa Anita Derby compromised his chances of improving on a second-place finish. He will have a much more honest pace to target in Kentucky.
6-Sidney's Candy: The benefactor and horse responsible for the tepid pace on his way to winning the Santa Anita Derby. He won't get that easy lead in Louisville.
7-Dublin: Has the stalking running style I like and I'm counting on the experience of four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas to manage the needed improvement. He will likely meet Noble's Promise again at home in Arkansas.
8-American Lion: Finally lived up to some of his expectations with a clear trip in the Illinois Derby. He'll have to improve further to get to the winner's circle in the Derby.

Wood Memorial and Santa Anita and Illinois Derbies Look To Leave Decade of Disappointment Behind

There are many questions regarding the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands to be answered this weekend with the running of Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) in California, the Illinois Derby (gr. 3) and the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) at Aqueduct in New York.

Will juvenile male champion Lookin at Lucky (right) benefit from the last minute schedule change to stay home at Santa Anita instead of traveling to Arkansas next week? Will Eskendereya replicate his dominating performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) in which he achieved a division leading 106 Beyer Speed Figure? Will American Lion finally live up to his winter hype and take the Illinois Derby?

During the last ten years, all three races have produced a Kentucky Derby winner as 2002 Illinois Derby winner War Emblem won in Kentucky as did 2000 Wood Memorial winner Fusaichi Pegasus. The sole Kentucky Derby winner to have run in the Santa Anita Derby during that time is Giacomo, who was fourth at Santa Anita.

Two other Kentucky Derby winners during the oughts made their previous starts in the Wood Memorial. Both 2001 winner Monarchos and 2003 winner were second in their respective Wood Memorials.

Two Wood Memorial winners have run well without winning the Derby including Congaree in 2001 (third in Kentucky) and Empire Maker (2nd in 2003). Santa Anita Derby winners, on the other hand, have lit the board only twice in Kentucky in that span. Pioneerofthe Nile finished second last year and Brother Derek was in a dead heat for fourth with Jazil in 2006.

One other historical notation in the last decade of Kentucky Derby winners: Only five, Big Brown, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, War Emblem and Fusaischi Pegasus won their race just previous to the Derby. Meaning the best horse in early April is not always the fastest on the first Saturday in May. The average Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby winners have finished seventh in Kentucky - the average Illinois Derby winner 9th.

But this is a new decade and the two current favorites to win the Kentucky Derby are running this weekend in Lookin at Lucky and Eskenderya and both have formidable foes in their paths.

Lookin at Lucky will likely be a heavy favorite in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby after over coming trouble several times to win the Rebel Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn. Also entered in the Santa Anita Derby are Sidney's Candy, currently third in TBA 3-year-old colt standings provided by OCD Pellets and the winner of the San Felipe (gr. 2) and San Vicente Stakes (gr. 2) at Santa Anita during the winter; and Caracortado, a winner of his first five career starts and the grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes before finishing third in the San Felipe last race. A rapidly improving Alphie's Bet, already a winner at 1-1/8 miles in the Sham Stakes.

The Wood Memorial may be a bit more competitive with the likes of Awesome Act, Jackson Bend and Schoolyard Dreams also headed to New York.

Awesome Act is a British import who came to New York to impressively win the grade 3 Gotham Stakes last month and has remained stateside to train for the Wood. Jackson Bend comes from the Nick Zito barn that has won the Wood Memorial three times with Thirty Six Red in 1990, Adonis ('99) and Bellamy Road ('05). Zito is hoping Jackson Bend can improve enough to avenge the runner-up performance in the Fountain of Youth behind Eskendereya. Schoolyard Dreams comes from Tampa Bay Downs where he lost their Derby by a close nose behind Odysseus.

The Illinois Derby will be a test of two sophomores trying to establish themselves and earn a trip to the Kentucky Derby. Backtalk, a favorite of this blog, will be trying for his second victory this year after winning the one-mile Sportsman’s Paradise Stakes at Delta Downs Feb. 26. Trained by Tom Amoss, the son of Smarty Jones may already have the graded earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby but may need a solid effort in Illinois to secure the ticket.

American Lion has shipped to Illinois from California where he was third behind Caracortado in the Robert B. Lewis and fourth behind winner Sidney's Candy in the San Felipe.