History May Help Find A Kentucky Derby Winner

The group of 3-year-old colts contesting this year’s Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) is a puzzling one indeed and will present a tall task to those who will try to handicap them and find a winner. Dialed In and Archarcharch are the only two starters with more than one graded stakes victory this year. Dialed In won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) in February and the Florida Derby in (gr. 1) April 3 – both at Gulfstream Park in South Florida. Archarcharch won Oaklawn Park’s Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) in February and the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) April 16.

Derby contenders Watch Me Go paid $89.40 in winning the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2); Twice the Appeal paid $53.20 to win the Sunland Derby (gr. 3) and Midnight Interlude returned $29.80 to his supporters in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Archarcharch paid $31.00 in the Southwest and $52.40 to win the Arkansas Derby.

The search for that extra bit of information that may be the breakthrough tidbit of handicapping insight is a difficult one indeed. If you believe history repeats itself, then perhaps a look back at where other Kentucky Derby winners came from will be of some aid.

Among all of the Kentucky Derby prep races, the Blue Grass Stakes (gr. 1) at Keeneland has produced the most winners of the Run for the Roses with 23. However, since Polytrack was installed on the main track at Keeneland in 2006, only Street Sense in 2007 had run in the Blue Grass,(finishing second to Dominican), before going on to win the Derby. Of the 23 horses that came out of the Blue Grass to win the Derby, only 11 were winners of the Blue Grass as well. The last to win both races was Strike the Gold in 1991.

The Blue Grass stats speak well for three potential starters in the Kentucky Derby this Saturday, May 7, including Blue Grass winner Brilliant Speed, runner-up Twinspired and Santiva, who as the 2-1 favorite finished ninth. Twinspired is hoping to follow in the footsteps of seven Blue Grass place finishers that would go on to win the Kentucky Derby. Don’t fret too much for Santiva either. Derby winners Sea Hero (1993) and Thunder Gulch (1995) were both unplaced in the Blue Grass before they hit the Churchill Downs winner's circle on the first Saturday in May.

The Florida Derby has produced the second-most Kentucky Derby winners with 21, including two of the last four and three during the oughts decade. Barabaro (photo) won the Florida-Kentucky Derby double in 2006 and Big Brown achieved the same in 2008. Nine years ago, Monarchos won both the Florida and Kentucky Derbies in 2001 but sqeezed in a second behind Congaree in the Wood Memorial between the two wins. A dozen of the 21 Kentucky Derby winners who had raced in the Florida Derby won both races including Thunder Gulch in 1995. Like Monarchos, after Florida, Thunder Gulch raced again before going to Churchill Downs – finishing fourth in the Blue Grass.

This year, Dialed In won the Florida Derby in a close finish over long shot Shackleford. Both are probable starters in the Kentucky Derby along with Soldat, who finished fifth in the Florida Derby as the 3-2 favorite.

New York’s main prep race has also produced its share of Kentucky Derby winners with 20 of them coming out of the Wood Memorial. The last two Derby winners to come out of the Aqueduct prep race were Funny Cide in 2003 and Monarchos. Like Monarchos, Funny Cide also finished second in the Wood Memorial, but that was the final prep race for the New York-bred gelding. The highly regarded Empire Make defeated Funny Cide on his way to becoming the favorite in Kentucky, but Funny Cide turned the tables in Kentucky, winning by 1-1/4 lengths ahead of Empire Maker in second.

The last six years, however, the road to the Kentucky Derby has been a rough one for winners of the Wood Memorial. Bellamy Road won the 2005 Wood by 14-1/2 lengths and was headed to favoritism in Kentucky before he was withdrawn from the Kentucky Derby due to injury. I Want Revenge (2009) and Eskendereya (2010) followed eerily similar paths after their Wood wins, also scratched due to injuries in the days before being the Kentucky Derby favorites.

Toby’s Corner, winner of the Wood Memorial this year, will not have to worry about that curse as he will not be the favorite in Kentucky. Uncle Mo, third in the Wood this year as the 1-10 favorite, is hoping to follow in the footsteps of the great Secretariat who got the show spot in the 1973 Wood before going on to Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown and fame beyond.

Next on the list of prep races producing the most Kentucky Derby winners are the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) with 15 and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) with 12. The San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) is the only other prep race to produce double digit Kentucky Derby winners with 11.

These races from the past logically have little to do with the 2006 Kentucky Derby and prep races thereof. But in attempting to find a winner among the Kentucky Derby cast of 2011, we need all the help we can get.

Bluegrass Adds to Competitive Season of Derby Preps

The 2011 class of 3-year-olds vying for fame in Kentucky, Maryland and beyond might be a maligned a bit for their talents thus far, but one has to congratulate the group on giving fans competitive races this spring.

Since the March 5 Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) at Aqueduct when Stay Thirsty won as the favorite, only The Factor has won a major Kentucky Derby prep race as the most popular betting choice when he took the Rebel (gr. 2) a week later at Oaklawn Park.

Since then, the nine other graded prep races for 3-year-olds at a mile or further and the main track, have produced an average winning payout of nearly $30.00 each. The lowest priced winner was Dialed In, who’s Florida Derby (gr. 1) victory returned $7.80 to his supporters as the second choice. Of note: Shackleford was just a head short of winning the Florida Derby at 68-1 while favored Soldat was far back in fifth.

The biggest long shot of the group honor goes to Watch Me Go, winner of the March 12 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2) paying $89.40 to win while Sunland Derby (gr. 3) winner Twice the Appeal was not far off the pace returning $53.20 for a $2 win ticket.

The biggest upset of the spring run to Kentucky did not, however, produce the largest payout. Uncle Mo went to the gate of the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) as the 1-10 favorite but could only manage a tiring third. Although rallying winner Toby’s Corner went off with odds of nearly 9-1, he was the second choice behind the heavily favored Uncle Mo.

Like Dialed In, Vinary Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) winner Animal Kingdom was the second choice and runner-up Decisive Moment also figured as the third choice of the punters that day. But favorite Positive Response, like Soldat in Florida, ran a very disappointing race finishing eighth in the Spiral.

We have already chronicle the hurdles The Factor must leap in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) Saturday and the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (gr. 1) looks even more competitive. As if the $750,000 purse is not good enough to recruit a good field, it’s the designation as graded stakes earnings that make those Keeneland dollars so attractive to the connections of the prospective runners. The $450,000 winner’s share guarantees the opportunity to enter the Kentucky Derby and the $150,000 check for second would be enough to give others enough or at least near the “Derby Bubble” expected to be somewhere just north of the current cutoff at Shackleford’s $212,000.

Santiva, a horse that started the year on many Kentucky Derby watch lists based on his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. 2) last year at Churchill Downs, it appears, is the only starter in the field with enough graded earnings already to make the Derby with $240,254 Trained by Eddie Kennally, Santiva started his sophomore campaign respectfully finishing second in the grade 2 Risen Star Stakes behind Mucho Macho Man in February. The son of Giant’s Causeway also ran second over Keeneland’s Polytrack last year in the grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, so the artificial surface should not be a concern.

Wilkinson, winner of the Lecomte Stakes at Fairgrounds in January, is one who needs to finish second in the Bluegrass to have any hope of a chance at the Derby. His $70,000 and the second place check in the Bluegrass would put him squarely on the Derby bubble. In order to get the winner’s share he will have to significantly improve off of his sixth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby last month behind long shot winner Pants on Fire. Wilkinson was second in his first start at Keeneland last year, so it has a fondness for the Polytrack as well.

Most of the other top choices seem to be trying to make the turf to Polytrack angle work in their favor. Second choice King Congie has crossed the finish in three consecutive races on grass. However, in his last race, he was disqualified from first and placed third in the $100,000 Hallandale Beach Stakes in February..

Co-third choice with Wilkinson at 6-1, Brilliant Speed last started on the main track in August in a Saratoga maiden special weight. Trained by Thomas Albertani, Brilliant Speed has since started five times on the turf, in the last, he was placed second through the disqualification of King Congie in the Hallandale Beach.

The 12-horse field also makes the Bluegrass a great wagering race and it should be plenty fun to watch for fans as well. One horse will come out of the Bluegrass a winner but as many as three might run well enough to get into the Kentucky Derby. The Polytrack, the influx of solid turf horses, the tradition and of course, the money and grade 1 status all make the Bluegrass an important race.

But its influence on the big blanket of roses given to the Derby winner, won’t be known for weeks.