Bluegrass Adds to Competitive Season of Derby Preps

The 2011 class of 3-year-olds vying for fame in Kentucky, Maryland and beyond might be a maligned a bit for their talents thus far, but one has to congratulate the group on giving fans competitive races this spring.

Since the March 5 Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) at Aqueduct when Stay Thirsty won as the favorite, only The Factor has won a major Kentucky Derby prep race as the most popular betting choice when he took the Rebel (gr. 2) a week later at Oaklawn Park.

Since then, the nine other graded prep races for 3-year-olds at a mile or further and the main track, have produced an average winning payout of nearly $30.00 each. The lowest priced winner was Dialed In, who’s Florida Derby (gr. 1) victory returned $7.80 to his supporters as the second choice. Of note: Shackleford was just a head short of winning the Florida Derby at 68-1 while favored Soldat was far back in fifth.

The biggest long shot of the group honor goes to Watch Me Go, winner of the March 12 Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2) paying $89.40 to win while Sunland Derby (gr. 3) winner Twice the Appeal was not far off the pace returning $53.20 for a $2 win ticket.

The biggest upset of the spring run to Kentucky did not, however, produce the largest payout. Uncle Mo went to the gate of the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) as the 1-10 favorite but could only manage a tiring third. Although rallying winner Toby’s Corner went off with odds of nearly 9-1, he was the second choice behind the heavily favored Uncle Mo.

Like Dialed In, Vinary Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) winner Animal Kingdom was the second choice and runner-up Decisive Moment also figured as the third choice of the punters that day. But favorite Positive Response, like Soldat in Florida, ran a very disappointing race finishing eighth in the Spiral.

We have already chronicle the hurdles The Factor must leap in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) Saturday and the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes (gr. 1) looks even more competitive. As if the $750,000 purse is not good enough to recruit a good field, it’s the designation as graded stakes earnings that make those Keeneland dollars so attractive to the connections of the prospective runners. The $450,000 winner’s share guarantees the opportunity to enter the Kentucky Derby and the $150,000 check for second would be enough to give others enough or at least near the “Derby Bubble” expected to be somewhere just north of the current cutoff at Shackleford’s $212,000.

Santiva, a horse that started the year on many Kentucky Derby watch lists based on his win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. 2) last year at Churchill Downs, it appears, is the only starter in the field with enough graded earnings already to make the Derby with $240,254 Trained by Eddie Kennally, Santiva started his sophomore campaign respectfully finishing second in the grade 2 Risen Star Stakes behind Mucho Macho Man in February. The son of Giant’s Causeway also ran second over Keeneland’s Polytrack last year in the grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, so the artificial surface should not be a concern.

Wilkinson, winner of the Lecomte Stakes at Fairgrounds in January, is one who needs to finish second in the Bluegrass to have any hope of a chance at the Derby. His $70,000 and the second place check in the Bluegrass would put him squarely on the Derby bubble. In order to get the winner’s share he will have to significantly improve off of his sixth-place finish in the Louisiana Derby last month behind long shot winner Pants on Fire. Wilkinson was second in his first start at Keeneland last year, so it has a fondness for the Polytrack as well.

Most of the other top choices seem to be trying to make the turf to Polytrack angle work in their favor. Second choice King Congie has crossed the finish in three consecutive races on grass. However, in his last race, he was disqualified from first and placed third in the $100,000 Hallandale Beach Stakes in February..

Co-third choice with Wilkinson at 6-1, Brilliant Speed last started on the main track in August in a Saratoga maiden special weight. Trained by Thomas Albertani, Brilliant Speed has since started five times on the turf, in the last, he was placed second through the disqualification of King Congie in the Hallandale Beach.

The 12-horse field also makes the Bluegrass a great wagering race and it should be plenty fun to watch for fans as well. One horse will come out of the Bluegrass a winner but as many as three might run well enough to get into the Kentucky Derby. The Polytrack, the influx of solid turf horses, the tradition and of course, the money and grade 1 status all make the Bluegrass an important race.

But its influence on the big blanket of roses given to the Derby winner, won’t be known for weeks.

Florida Win Is No Requisite For Kentucky Fame

This Sunday, one of the premier prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) will be run in the grade 1 Florida Derby. Not only does the $1 million purse provide plenty of incentive to those connections needing graded stakes money to qualify their colt for the Run for the Roses, but the 1-1/8 distance, calendar placement and tradition also adds to the races allure.

Run just five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, this Florida Derby looks to have one of the deepest fields the race has offered in some time. Probable starters Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are all among leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby with all appearing in Paulick Report’s Vinery LTD Derby Index, a top ten ranking of Kentucky Derby contenders as ranked by 28 turf writers and thoroughbred racing bloggers throughout North America. Soldat is ranked second behind leader Uncle Mo with Dialed In tallying the third most votes. To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are ranked sixth and seventh respectively in the weekly poll.

Although Soldat, with his $510,000 in graded stakes earnings, is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby should he make it there, Stay Thirsty ($260,000), To Honor and Serve ($250,000) and Dialed In ($240,000) appear not to need more than a $50,000 fourth-place Florida Derby check that push them near the $300,000 mark believed to safely be enough to stamp a ticket to Louisville, Kentucky. But one can rest assured that the owners, trainers and jockeys in this race are thinking nothing short of the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle after the Florida Derby.

After all, since the Florida Derby was first run in 1953, ten winners have gone to take the Kentucky Derby including Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (’06), Monarchos (‘01), Thunder Gulch (1995), Unbridled (’90), Swale (’84), Spectacular Bid (’79), Forward Pass (’68), Northern Dancer (’64), Carry Back (’61) and Needles in 1956 (photo above). Of those, however, only Big Brown, Barbaro and Needles went directly from the Florida Derby to Kentucky.

Spectacular Bid, Forward Pass and Northern Dancer (photo left) all won the Bluegrass Stakes between their Florida and Kentucky victories and Tim Tam won the Derby Trial. Swale, Unbridled and Thunder Gulch also went to Lexington for the Blue Grass before the Derby, but finished second, third and fourth respectively in the Keeneland’s Bluegrass.

Monarchos, and Carry Back went to Aqueduct in New York to finish second in the Wood Memorial before going to Kentucky for their post race blanket of roses.

With the quality of the 2011 Florida Derby as high and deep as it is, one might also think a Florida Derby might be a must for Kentucky glory. However, nine Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Florida Derby but failed to win. Strike The Gold (’91), Cannonade (’74) and Venetian Way (’60) finished second in the Florida Derby before winning the big one in Kentucky. Foolish Pleasure (’75) and Iron Liege (’57) were third, while Go For Gin (’94) and Kaui King (’66) were both unplaced in Florida before their historical wins in Kentucky.

With five weeks remaining until the Kentucky Derby on May 7, the pressure is surely beginning to mount in the shed rows of those with aspirations of taking the coveted race so there is no need to heap on additional albatross of a must win in Florida Sunday. Florida Derby probables Bowman’s Causeway, Arch Traveler and perhaps Flashpoint need the $600,000 first-place check for the needed graded earnings for Derby consideration. But for Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty, the additional burden of a must-win is unnecessary.

That is unlikely to make much difference for their connections, however. Urgency is not a necessary ingredient for determination. And few run horse races to finish second.