Kentucky Derby Bubble At $120,000

This week Churchill Downs released the current rankings of 3-year-olds by graded earnings, which determines which horses may enter the $2 million Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) to be run May 5.

No surprise that last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male Hansen sits atop the list with $1,160,000, of which $1,080,000 was earned when he captured the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs last November. In his first start of 2012 Hansen was second to Algorithms in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulfstream Park Jan. 29.

Second to Hansen in both the Juvenile and on the graded earnings list is Union Rags with $830,000 of which $360,000 was earned in the Juvenile and all earned last year as a 2-year-old. Sabercat is third on the list with the $600,000 he earned in the grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot run at Delta Downs in Louisiana, also run last November.

However, the most important slots on the graded earnings list are much further down where Battle Hardened, Brother Francis and the filly Disposablepleasure sit tied for 18th with $120,000 each in graded earnings. For it is those three horses and their respective earnings that currently define the amount needed to make the top 20. Twenty is the maximum number of starters allowed in the Run for the Roses.

The owners, trainers, jockeys and fans of all the 3-year-olds currently below the $120,000 mark should not fret too much however, as that number will change many times in the next 77 days before the Derby. Some of the horses currently in the top 20 will be forced out of contention due to injury while others may just not have the Kentucky Derby in their plans. Both instances would lower the $120,000 mark.

Two fillies, On Fire Baby and Disposablepleasure, are on the list and they have the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) as an option. There are also two foriegn-based horses on the list in Wrote and Genten. Wrote, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) at Churchill Downs, is based in Ireland with trainer Aidan O'Brien. O'Brien crossed the Atlantic many times last year with Cape Blanco and won the Eclipse Award for Champion Turf Horse in North America. O'Brien has started two horses in the Kentucky Derby. Johannesburg and Castle Gondolfo finished eighth and 12th respectively in the 2002 Derby. O'Brien has won six Breeders' Cup races over the years from more than 70 starters.

Trainer Yoshito Yahagi has Genten at his base in Japan and has never started a horse in either the Derby nor the Breeders' Cup.

There are some 31 graded races for 3-year-olds remaining before the Derby. That equates to some 150 opportunities to earn graded money, which of course, could drive up the $120,000 number.

Twenty horses have entered the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 and in 11 of the past 13 years. Interestingly, last year Derby Kitten was the last to qualify for the Derby with $120,000 but it took a record $218,750 for Make Music For Me to get into the Run for Roses two years ago. Over the last five years, the final horse to make the Derby field has averaged $132,750 in graded earnings.

Graded stakes are considered graded or group status as assigned to the race by the International Cataloguing Standards Committee in Part I of the International Cataloguing Standards as published by The Jockey Club Information Systems, Inc. each year.

In the case of a tie for the final entry position or the determination of all remaining starters, preference is given to horses that accumulated the highest earnings in non-restricted stakes races. If a tie still remains, the final spots in the starting gate will be determined by lot or a “shake.”

For the first time since 1984, there will be an “also eligible” list with as many as four horses eligible to draw into the field until scratch time on Friday, May 4 at 9 a.m. ET.

Top 32 Graded Stakes Earners
Rank, Horse, Graded Earnings, Trainer
Thru Sunday, Feb. 12, 2012
1. Hansen, $1,160,000, Mike Maker
2. Union Rags, $830,000, Michael Matz
3. Sabercat $600,000, Steve Asmussen
4. Wrote-IRE $556,630, Aidan O’Brien
5. Creative Cause $488,000, Mike Harrington
6. Liaison $375,000, Bob Baffert
7. Dullahan $375,000, Dale Romans
8. Excaper $240,736, Ian Black
9. Algorithms $240,000, Todd Pletcher
10. On Fire Baby (f) $211,729, Gary Hartlage
11. Drill $210,000, Bob Baffert
12. Alpha $180,000, Kiaran McLaughlin
13. Rousing Sermon $164,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
14. Prospective $155,452, Mark Casse
15. I’ll Have Another $151,000, Doug O’Neill
16. Currency Swap $150,000, Teresa Pompay
17. Genten $123,826, Yoshito Yahagi
t-18. Battle Hardened $120,000, Eddie Kenneally
t-18. Brother Francis $120,000, Jim Cassidy
t-18. Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000, Todd Pletcher
21. Mr. Bowling $115,848, Larry Jones
22. Jack’s in the Deck $105,000, Robin Graham
23. Gemologist $103,855, Todd Pletcher
24. Longview Drive $102,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
25. Fly Lexis Fly $99,481, Neil Drysdale
26. Take Charge Indy $98,400, Pat Byrne
27. Daddy Long Legs $94,030, Aidan O’Brien
28. Red Duke $90,823 Maxilead Ltd. John Quinn
t-29. Overdriven $90,000, Todd Pletcher
t-29. Reneesgotzip (f) $90,000, Peter Miller
t-29. State of Play $90,000, Graham Motion
t-29. Thunder Moccasin $90,000, Todd Pletcher

Kelso, Kardashian And Other Breeders' Cup Thoughts, Comments and Questions

After the St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series Friday night and the St. Louis Rams defeated the Saints Sunday, I found myself looking through the Breeders’ Cup past performances double-checking there were any Missouri-breds or Fairmont Park ship-ins I missed… Trying to watch the Breeders’ Cup draw reminded me of days holding horse after horse while they were

being shod, proof reading and my doctor's waiting room… The Breeders’ Cup post position draw is another case of the book being much better than the movie… When asked at dinner who was the best Breeders’ Cup story this year, this blogger responded with Classic contender Flat Out, 70-year trainer Charles "Scooter" Dickey (photo) and wife Dana. Win the $5 million Classic or not, it will be difficult to match Scooter’s post Jockey Club Gold Cup when the emotions kept him from initial TV interview. Dana is recovering from a serious illness this year… I remind some angry Tweeters that the morning line is supposed to be the line maker’s prediction of how the public will bet the race. It is not supposed to be the line maker’s order of finish probabilities… This bloggers favorite Breeders’ Cup moment: Tiznow and Giant’s Causeway turning around a very bad day at the races with their $140.80 exacta… Not to dis on Goldikova’s pursuit of four consecutive wins in the Breeders’ Cup Mile, but Kelso winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup five times from 1960-64 is the cake taker…

Cold Play
The saddle towels for the first Breeders’ Cup at Hollywood Park were all yellow… ESPN/NBC analysts Jerry Bailey has won a record 15 Breeders’ Cup races. Leading active jockey in same category: Mike Smith with 13 trips to the Breeders’ Cup winners’ circle… This blogger’s least favorite Breeders’ Cup moment excluding injuries and trajedies: Zenyatta losing her first career race to Blame in the 2010 Classic. I see that race now and think to myself that it surely must have been longer than a year ago… Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien invades the United States again. This summer, he completed a Grade 1 double at Arlington Park when he won the Arlington Million with Cape Blanco (Ire) and the Secretariat Stakes with Irish Derby (G1) winner Treasure Beach (Ire)… Biggest disappointment of the week: Uncle Mo in the Classic or the Kim Kardashian marriage.

The Graduates
Stable mates and Classic foes Uncle Mo and Stay Thirsty both ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. Uncle Mo won the 2010 Juvenile to finish the year undefeated and was eventually named the divisional champion. Stay Thirsty finished fifth in the 09 Juvenile before winning the 2010 Gotham and Travers Stakes… Shared Account, Uncle Mo, Goldikova, Big Drama, Eldaafer and Chamberlain Bridge return to the Breeders’ Cup as winners of Breeders’ Cup races last year. They are trying to join only eleven other thoroughbreds with multiple Breeders' Cup wins.

Long Grudge Match
Gio Ponti was second to Goldikova last year and returns again in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. Longer Grudge Match: Courageous Cat returns to the Mile for the first time since running second to Goldikova two years ago. Longest Grudge Match: Eldaafer will have to defend his title in the Marathon against A.U. Miner and Giant Oak, fourth and fifth-place finishers last year respectively. Should all three start in the Marathon again this year, they will have run 10-1/2 miles in the two races between them... More Grudge Match: Midday returns to avenge her runner-up finish in last year's Filly and Mare Turf to Shared Account, also returning in this year's race.

Ouija Board Says
The great Ouija Board is the only horse to win the same Breeders’ Cup race twice in non consecutive years with a loss in the race in between. Ouija Board won the 2004 and 2006 Filly and Mare Turf but was second in that race in 2005. Da Hoss won the 1996 and 1998 Mile but missed the 1997 version of the race. California Flag tries to match Ouija Board after winning the Turf Sprint in 2009 and finishing 8th in that race last year.