Masters and Road to Kentucky Derby Have Similarities This Year

While watching The Master golf tournament Sunday, I began to notice some similarities and parallels between golf’s major event at Augusta National Golf Club and this year’s road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1). Like the last three grade 1 prep races for the Run for the Roses, (Florida Derby, New York Casino Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby), the last nine holes of The Masters had eight different names on the lead. There are no female members of the Augusta National Golf Club, just as there are no female thoroughbreds with Kentucky Derby dreams.


Looking at the races leading up to the Derby in a more general sense, there was a clear cut favorite coming into the weekend. Uncle Mo was undefeated, atop nearly every Kentucky Derby watch list and the 2010 undisputed champion of his division. Uncle Mo had quickly taken control of his previous races by racing immediately to the lead at the start, maintaining that lead with confidence, then pulling away from the field down the stretch.

Like Uncle Mo, Rory McIlroy is young and obviously very talented. At the end of the first round of the Masters Thursday, the brilliant 21-year-old from Northern Ireland went to the clubhouse with a score of seven under par and the early lead. Friday and Saturday were much the same for McIlroy as Sunday, he took a four-shot lead into the the final round at Augusta at 12 shots under par.

McIlroy bogeyed the first hole Sunday, missing a testy five foot put for par.

Uncle Mo’s Wood Memorial did not start well either, as he literally stumbled out of the starting gate. Before finding his stride.

McIlroy never really found his stride Sunday. On the par 5 second hole, McIlroy puts his drive in a fairway bunker then his second shot catches the lip of the bunker leaving an extremely long approach to a front pin position. McIlroy saves par but things are not going well as Carl Schwartzel eagles number 4 and McIlroy’s lead has vanished.

At some point during the early running of the Wood Memorial, perhaps when he stumbled, Uncle Mo grabs a portion of a front hoof with a back foot while running. The injury is minor and trainer Todd Pletcher said the injury was not an excuse for the poor performance. It couldn't have helped either.

McIlroy lost the lead in The Masters when he triple bogeys the tenth hole. He hit a tree on that hole approaching the green.

Unlike McIlroy, Uncle Mo looked like a winner for most of the running of the Wood Memorial. Although Uncle Mo didn’t hit a tree just before he gave up the lead to Author’s Tale inside the final furlong, it looked like he might have. Turning for home, jockey John Velazquez gave Uncle Mo the signal to start running and the colt responded. But then suddenly, it appeared as if Uncle Mo was finished as Author’s Tale quickly ran by Uncle Mo before eventual winner Toby’s Corner as well, even more rapidly.

Again, both Uncle Mo and Rory McIlroy are young and talented. McIlroy’s trade as a golfer will surely last years longer than Uncle Mo’s career as a race horse, but the odds are that they will both be heard from again.

There other parallels between The Masters final day and some other three-year-old thoroughbreds heading for Churchill Downs. Florida Derby winner Dialed In – who is perhaps now the pre-race favorite for the Kentucky Derby - likes to stay out of trouble by laying back in the pack before making a late run at the early leaders for his wins.

Masters champion Carl Schwartzel didn’t stay out of trouble all day, but stayed close enough to finish with a late run of four straight birdies on the final four holes of the Masters to win going away.

Adam Scott and Jason Day finished The Master two shots back of Schwartzel on the final leaderboard. Bo Van Pelt made a run with two eagles on the back nine but could manage no better than eighth place at eight under par. While these young men are obviously not new to the PGA tour, they did represent a wave of young names new to the average golf fan.

So too can be said of Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude, Toby’s Corner and and Florida Derby winner Shackleford. Like Tiger Woods, Geoff Olgivy and Angel Cobrerra, don’t expect to say good bye easily to the more recognized Kentucky Derby contenders like The Factor, Comma to the Top, and Mucho Macho Man.

But like The Masters final leaderboard, the road to the Kentucky Derby has some new travelers.

Doors of Opportunity Open Wide in Santa Anita Derby

If they hadn’t run the Florida Derby (g.r 1) last weekend, this Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) would not look as enticing as perhaps it is now. But they did run the Florida Derby, and three of the four most promising contenders on the east coast threw in clunker efforts in Gulfstream Park’s marquee event and main prep race for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. The highly regarded To Honor and Serve ran an exhausting looking third, Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) winner Soldat was even further back in fifth while Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) winner Stay Thirsty finished seventh.

Take nothing away from Florida Derby winner Dialed In and long shot runner-up Shackleford. They both ran very nice races that will garner attention from punters on Kentucky Derby Day. But even with the defection from the Santa Anita Derby by morning line favorite Premier Pegasus, there remains several horses with the potential to put forth better efforts than To Honor and Serve and his also ran compadres in Florida.

Ironically Jaycito, who inherits the early favoritism in the Santa Anita Derby when Premier Pegasus was scratched, has a resume eerily similar to that of To Honor and Serve before the Florida Derby. Both were highly regarded early this year based on their success as two-year-olds. Both also had disappointing debuts. Jaycito was beaten by nearly eight lengths by Premier Pegasus in the San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) at Santa Anita on Mar. 12. To Honor and Serve was third, beaten nearly seven lengths by Soldat in the Fountain of Youth Stakes Feb. 26.

Jaycito will need to show marked improvement Saturday in the 1-1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby in order to be among the serious in the Kentucky Derby May 7. The late running son of Victory Gallup will also need an honest pace in the early stages of the Santa Anita Derby in order to maximize his running style.

There is also the pair of Silver Medallion (photo left) and Anthony’s Cross, two winners of graded stakes on the west coast early in the Kentucky Derby prep season. Silver Medallion won the El Camino Real Derby (gr. 3) at Golden Gate Fields way back on Feb. 12. Anthony’s Cross took the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (gr. 2) on the same day at Santa Anita. Ironically, neither has started since. But Anthony’s Cross trainer Eoin Harty has watched his son of Indian Charlie put in a couple of bullet morning works since. Silver Medallion trainer, Steve Asmussen, has been more conservative with his Derby prospect in the mornings, but that should not reflect too much on his potential in the Santa Anita Derby. Certainly Asmussen has a penchant for timing his horses' training with their optimum races.

Trainer John Shirreffs of Zenyata fame, has a newcomer to stakes competition in the Santa Anita Derby in Mr. Commons. After finishing sixth in his first start at Hollywood Park, Mr. Commons seemed to excel on the Santa Anita turf, breaking his maiden by five and-a-half lengths in January. Shirreffs then tried his son of Artie Schiller on the main track and he defeated allowance colts at one mile.

Comma to the Top may be another to watch for the Santa Anita Derby. After winning five consecutive races from October to December including the CashCall Futurity (gr. 1) at Hollywood Park, he was among the highest regarded in his three-year-old class. But a fourth-place finish behind Silver Medallion in the El Camino Real and a similarly disappointing fourth in the San Felipe behind winner Premier Pegasus, and Comma to the Top was pushed off most lists of serious Kentucky Derby contenders. Among those lists were those held by trainer Peter Miller and owners Gary Barber, Roger Birnbaum, and Kevin Tsujihara. They have said they have decided not to take their colt to Kentucky. Perhaps a big race in the Santa Anita Derby will change that.

No matter which horses go on to Kentucky after the Santa Anita Derby, two big doors have opened for all those hoping to make a Run for the Roses. Last week three top Kentucky Derby contenders put in less that impressive performances in the Florida Derby while locally, morning line favorite Premier Pegasus was scratched from the Santa Anita Derby with a fracture to his left cannon bone. Say nothing of the $1 million purse that offers $600,000 to the winner and $200,000 to second. All personal accounting aside, those checks each appear to have enough graded stakes earnings to qualify the recipient for the Kentucky Derby.

The question now is: Who will take those opportunities to capitalize and walk through the door at Santa Anita that leads to Churchill Downs.

Neither Paradise Nor Bust, Horse Racing Presses On

Thoroughbred racing in North America is a vast industry that spans all three countries, including every state in the United States whether the home of tracks, breeders, owners and horsemen, management, manufacturing, service, agriculture or fans and gamblers. So whether you're elated by the Medaglia d' Oro filly that sold for a Maryland record $650,000 last week or prepared to take arms against the closing of Saratoga, be aware that all is not lost nor are we paradise bound.

The Triple Crown Bad News
The 2010 Triple Crown has never had much star quality momentum since the injury and departure of Fountain of Youth (gr. 2) and Wood Memorial (gr. 1) winner Eskendereya (photo right). Even before that, Looking at Lucky, who was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby throughout most of the winter, never got untracked barely winning a troubled Rebel Stakes (gr. 3), and unlucky losses in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) and the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands.

Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver provided plenty of star potential coming from the barn of Todd Pletcher and having the services of public favorite Calvin Borel, but that team flattened out in the Preakness and will now skip the Belmont.

To make matters worse for racing fans, Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky will also skip the Belmont and instead be pointed toward the grade 1 Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in New Jersey on August 1. So we are left with a Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) without a Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner for the first time since 2006.

The Triple Crown Good News
The NBC telecast of the Kentucky Derby was the highest in 18 years and eclipsed the 2009 Derby telecast that was the highest in 20 years. The 10.3 overnight rating and 23 share mean that nearly one in four television sets turned on Saturday afternoon were tuned into the Kentucky Derby. In terms of comparison to other major league sports on tv, the Derby ratings were higher than the final game of the 2009 World Series, the 2009 NBA Championship final game and the Stanley Cup finals in the NHL.

While the television ratings for the Preakness fell nearly 20% from a year ago, that Preakness was bolstered by the presence of the filly Rachel Alexandra and was among the highest rated Preakness telecasts in two decades. Even with the drop in comparison to last year, the Preakness ratings were still higher than the 2008 telecast and NBC reported that the combined ratings for the two telecasts results in the highest numbers of any consecutive horse telecasts since 1989.

More Good News To Triple Crown Bad News
While the 3-year-old crop of 2010 has yet to develop a horse with much star power, the older horse division is perhaps as loaded with stars as any year in decades.

Zenyatta continues to run into the racing history books and living rooms of America with every race as she continues to add to her now undefeated record in 16 career starts. While 2009 Horse of Year Rachel Alexandra has stumbled a bit in two close losses this year, there is no doubt she will draw attention and crowds when she makes here next start. Should Rachel Alexandra develop any resemblance of her 2009 form and eventually meet Zenyatta, the race will be a significant historical event in racing.

Just below the two superstars looms the popular Quality Road, winner of the 2009 Florida Derby (gr. 1) and undefeated in two starts this year; Summer Bird, the first horse in 20 years to win Belmont, Travers (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1); and Rail Trip on the West coast, who looked impressive while winning the Mervyn LeRoy (gr. 2)in preparation for his defense of the Hollywood Gold Cup (gr. 1) title.

Closings on the Coasts?
For at least the last two years, Hollywood Park near Los Angeles has ended a race meet with little or no assurance that it would not be the last. In July 2005, Churchill Downs sold the track to the Bay Meadows Land Company for $260 million in cash. Under the terms of the deal, the company was to continue thoroughbred racing at Hollywood Park for at least three years and longer if favorable gaming legislation was passed in California. Five years later, there are no slots at California race tracks, Hollywood Park Race Track is still running and the Hollywood Park Tomorrow retail, commercial and residential development is still just a plan.

Across town at Santa Anita, owner Magna Entertainment appears to have survived a bankruptcy in their Roman racetrack empire that has spanned to Texas, Maryland, Michigan and various points in between. Now parent company Magna International Development has told the Oak Tree Racing Association, which has leased Santa Anita since 1969 for their non-profit Fall meeting, that they are reneging on a previous agreement and want to void the lease. But California neighbors Hollywood Park and Del Mar near San Diego quickly told Oak Tree officials they are welcome to run the meeting at their tracks. MID blinked and is expected to resume negotiations with Oak Tree Officials.

MID chief executive officer Dennis Mills has a standing offer to play poker at the Sheridan house any time. He wouldn’t last an hour at the same table as my wife.

On the East coast, New York Racing Association president and CEO Charlie Hayward said Monday that cash problems must be resolved with the state or they will not have the funds to continue the Belmont Park meeting past the Belmont Stakes nor open Saratoga. Due to a $17 million shortfall from the New York Off-Track Betting Corp., NYRA, which operates Belmont Park, Saratoga and Aqueduct race tracks, has hit a cash crisis with devastating potential.

Although New York governor David Paterson and various state legislators have pledged not to allow racing to halt in New York, those same politicians have been working nine years to approve a slot operator and allow Video Lottery Terminals to be installed at Aqueduct. Slot revenues are expected to be a large benefit to the NYRA and state bottom line just as it has in other racing jurisdictions where slots have been allowed at tracks.

East Coast Good News
Saturday, Monmouth Park will open perhaps the most anticipated racing season in their 64-year history, offering $1 million per day in purses and attracting some of the top stables from New York, California and Kentucky. The 50-day summer meet is part of a plan that has sliced live thoroughbred racing days in New Jersey to 71 total and eliminating the thoroughbred season at the Meadowlands.

The season will feature racing predominantly on a Friday through Sunday basis in an effort to boost attendance and handle at the track to subsidize the large purses. Management is also counting on full fields and 11 and 12-race cards that are likely to become more attractive to the thoroughbred players across the country.

The racing industry has for years clamored for the "less racing/larger fields" strategy to be implemented in racing jurisdictions throughout the country. But the risk of potential lost revenue due to lost racing dates has been too large for managements and states before the Monmouth experiment begins this week.

Bad Economy Blasts Breeders Too
According to Bloodhorse.com, fees for advertised stallion may have fallen as much as 25% in 2009 and the 2010 season may be even worse for stallion owners and breeders. Gross sales at public auctions in North America fell from $972 million in 2008 to $659 million a year later, a decrease of some 32%. Lost revenues at sales directly and adversely affect studs fees, in particular the summer yearling market.

But the sales markets are showing signs of improvement in the early months of 2010 which will have a positive impact on stallion fees should the trend continue.

One of the leading early economic indicators for public auctions are the success of two-year-old in training sales held by public auction houses Barretts, Fasig-Tipton, Keeneland, and the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. While gross sales at these auctions have decreased at many of the sales, the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic sale of 2-year-olds in training Monday in Maryland saw horses sold and gross revenue increase 7.9% and 23%, respectively, from a year ago.

One segment of the industry that has done well throughout the 2-year-old season are pin-hookers. (those that purchase yearlings at summer auctions with the express intent of reselling them in 2-year-old-in-training sales the following spring.) The rate of return on investment for most pin-hookers this year has more than doubled into the 70% range according to bloodhorse.com, giving plenty of hope to the yearling market later this summer.

Good yearling sales means improved stud fees and hopefully the recovery of yet another thoroughbred racing segment from the depths of this latest recession.

Eskenderya Perfect. Lookin at Lucky Not

If one could envision a perfect preparation for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), it might look a lot like Eskendereya's Wood Memorial (gr. 1). Jockey John Velazquez spent more energy looking for challengers in the final quarter mile of the Wood than urging Eskendereya. And Eskendereya apparently knew it. Down the stretch his ears were pricked as if asking the jockey for instructions or perhaps permission - permission to run faster.

Instead, Velazquez only rode, relaxed and probably relished in the machine beneath him. All while galloping past the wire 8-1/2 lengths ahead of Jackson Bend, Awesome Act and Schoolyard Dreams.


The picture perfect Wood Memorial by Eskendereya will make him the favorite - or maybe heavy favorite - for the Kentucky Derby to be run May 1.

Bob Baffert, the trainer of west coast favorite Lookin at Lucky in the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby Saturday, perhaps could not have envisioned a more unpleasant preparation for Kentucky. He saw Lookin at Lucky crowded shortly after the break by Cardiff Giant and almost dropped around the turn by Who's Up only to see his horse valiantly rebound for third when many horses would have quit.

After the Santa Anita Derby, Baffert criticized jockey Garrett Gomez. Gomez punched Victor Espinoza (jockey of Who's Up), who then got punched again by the Santa Anita board of stewards with a 3-day suspension for careless riding. Gomez also got slapped with a fine for punching.

Meanwhile, Sidney's Candy had just won the Santa Anita Derby by 4-1/2 lengths ahead of the late charging Setsuko and the rebounding Looking at Lucky in third. Although he drew away from the field down the stretch, he was coming off of slow fractions of :24.00 seconds for the first quarter and :48.50 for the half. He won't get away with a waltz like that on the lead in the Derby, which is why I don't have any higher than eighth on my Elite Eight this week.

American Lion won the Illinois Derby (gr. 2) Saturday and looked good while pulling away from second-place finisher Yuwanna Twist. American Lion also got away with easy fractions with the first half-mile in a 49.32 seconds. But American Lion had 8-5 favorite Yuwanna Twist on his flanks almost the entire trip around the track. But it is the first good race of the year for American Lion and additional improvement will be needed in Kentucky.



The Kentucky Derby Elite Eight
1-Eskendereya: He improved on his Fountain of Youth in the Wood with a 109 Beyer Speed Figure with a stretch run that more resembled a stroll.
2-Lookin at Lucky: The trip handicapper in me keeps this horse among the top contenders still. Although after two terrible trips and the Rebel and Santa Anita Derby, hoping for the first clear trip in three races among the Kentucky Derby field of 20, may be a little naive.
3-Noble's Promise: Ran a big race in the Rebel to almost take down Lookin at Lucky and may well be among the favorites in the Arkansas Derby Saturday.
4-Odysseus: His very late move in the last 100 yards of the Tampa Bay Derby was unusual, but impressive. He runs in the Bluegrass Stakes Saturday at Keeneland in his final prep.
5-Setsuko: The pedestrian pace in the Santa Anita Derby compromised his chances of improving on a second-place finish. He will have a much more honest pace to target in Kentucky.
6-Sidney's Candy: The benefactor and horse responsible for the tepid pace on his way to winning the Santa Anita Derby. He won't get that easy lead in Louisville.
7-Dublin: Has the stalking running style I like and I'm counting on the experience of four-time Derby winner D. Wayne Lukas to manage the needed improvement. He will likely meet Noble's Promise again at home in Arkansas.
8-American Lion: Finally lived up to some of his expectations with a clear trip in the Illinois Derby. He'll have to improve further to get to the winner's circle in the Derby.

Wood Memorial and Santa Anita and Illinois Derbies Look To Leave Decade of Disappointment Behind

There are many questions regarding the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands to be answered this weekend with the running of Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) in California, the Illinois Derby (gr. 3) and the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) at Aqueduct in New York.

Will juvenile male champion Lookin at Lucky (right) benefit from the last minute schedule change to stay home at Santa Anita instead of traveling to Arkansas next week? Will Eskendereya replicate his dominating performance in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) in which he achieved a division leading 106 Beyer Speed Figure? Will American Lion finally live up to his winter hype and take the Illinois Derby?

During the last ten years, all three races have produced a Kentucky Derby winner as 2002 Illinois Derby winner War Emblem won in Kentucky as did 2000 Wood Memorial winner Fusaichi Pegasus. The sole Kentucky Derby winner to have run in the Santa Anita Derby during that time is Giacomo, who was fourth at Santa Anita.

Two other Kentucky Derby winners during the oughts made their previous starts in the Wood Memorial. Both 2001 winner Monarchos and 2003 winner were second in their respective Wood Memorials.

Two Wood Memorial winners have run well without winning the Derby including Congaree in 2001 (third in Kentucky) and Empire Maker (2nd in 2003). Santa Anita Derby winners, on the other hand, have lit the board only twice in Kentucky in that span. Pioneerofthe Nile finished second last year and Brother Derek was in a dead heat for fourth with Jazil in 2006.

One other historical notation in the last decade of Kentucky Derby winners: Only five, Big Brown, Barbaro, Smarty Jones, War Emblem and Fusaischi Pegasus won their race just previous to the Derby. Meaning the best horse in early April is not always the fastest on the first Saturday in May. The average Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby winners have finished seventh in Kentucky - the average Illinois Derby winner 9th.

But this is a new decade and the two current favorites to win the Kentucky Derby are running this weekend in Lookin at Lucky and Eskenderya and both have formidable foes in their paths.

Lookin at Lucky will likely be a heavy favorite in the $750,000 Santa Anita Derby after over coming trouble several times to win the Rebel Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn. Also entered in the Santa Anita Derby are Sidney's Candy, currently third in TBA 3-year-old colt standings provided by OCD Pellets and the winner of the San Felipe (gr. 2) and San Vicente Stakes (gr. 2) at Santa Anita during the winter; and Caracortado, a winner of his first five career starts and the grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes before finishing third in the San Felipe last race. A rapidly improving Alphie's Bet, already a winner at 1-1/8 miles in the Sham Stakes.

The Wood Memorial may be a bit more competitive with the likes of Awesome Act, Jackson Bend and Schoolyard Dreams also headed to New York.

Awesome Act is a British import who came to New York to impressively win the grade 3 Gotham Stakes last month and has remained stateside to train for the Wood. Jackson Bend comes from the Nick Zito barn that has won the Wood Memorial three times with Thirty Six Red in 1990, Adonis ('99) and Bellamy Road ('05). Zito is hoping Jackson Bend can improve enough to avenge the runner-up performance in the Fountain of Youth behind Eskendereya. Schoolyard Dreams comes from Tampa Bay Downs where he lost their Derby by a close nose behind Odysseus.

The Illinois Derby will be a test of two sophomores trying to establish themselves and earn a trip to the Kentucky Derby. Backtalk, a favorite of this blog, will be trying for his second victory this year after winning the one-mile Sportsman’s Paradise Stakes at Delta Downs Feb. 26. Trained by Tom Amoss, the son of Smarty Jones may already have the graded earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby but may need a solid effort in Illinois to secure the ticket.

American Lion has shipped to Illinois from California where he was third behind Caracortado in the Robert B. Lewis and fourth behind winner Sidney's Candy in the San Felipe.