Of All Kentucky Derby Lists, Only One Rules

When a horse steps onto the trail for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), there are two types of races they must win in order to prove themselves worthy of going to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday of May. There are the horse races on the track in which they must win or compete strongly, and the graded stakes earnings race. The needed victories in races seem obvious, but it is the graded stakes earnings list that determines who gets the precious 20 spots in the starting gate for the Derby.

And then there is the challenge of getting through the remainder of the trail injury free, hope racing luck at least leans in your direction and outperform the one hundred or so 3-year-olds that are still seriously on the Kentucky trail. Seriously is a relative term here. There is an apparent difference between the those that may be serious contenders and those whose human counterparts are seriously dreaming about a spot in the Derby… but little else.

Yet a look back at the grade stakes earnings list of Kentucky Derby contenders in the middle of March last year may give more credence to the so-called dreamers. Of the top ten on the graded stakes earnings list as of March 16 last year, only half made it to the Derby. They were Looking at Lucky (left), Noble’s Promise, Discreetly Mine, Dublin and Homeboy Kris.

Of the eventual top three finishers in the 136th running of the Derby last year, only Super Saver was ranked in the top 20 at this time last year AND he was ranked 20th. Runner-up Ice Box was not ranked in the top 40 and Paddy O’Prado came in at number 23.

Ice Box was not the only Derby starter in last year's Derby not to be ranked in the top 40 of 3-year-old graded stakes earners in mid-March. Stately Victor, Mission Impazible, Devil May Care, Dean’s Kitten and Lines of David were all ranked below the 40 mark in graded earnings this time last year. Make Music For Me, the fourth-place finisher in the Derby, was ranked 12th on the graded stakes earnings list in mid-March last year, yet became the last to qualify for a slot in the Derby starting gate with $55,000.

One can expect a similar pattern of changes from between now and the Derby on May 7, there are seventeen graded races for 3-year-olds including the Palm Beach Stakes on turf this weekend and two 7 furlong graded stakes in the Bay Shore and Swale. Those races are not exactly the kind of races in which a contender needs to run leading up to the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby on dirt. Regardless, the earnings still count so one never knows.

The purses for those 17 remaining graded races before the Derby total $8.8 million, so there is plenty of graded stakes earnings yet left to be disseminated. Depending on the conditions of each race, there are at least 85 opportunities in those 17 races to earn graded stakes money.

It is difficult to determine the graded stakes earnings cut-off for the 20 Derby positions. Last year, Make Music For Me needed $218,750 in graded earnings to qualify. But the year before, No Where To Hide needed on $55,500 to make into the 2009 Derby. In 2008 Denis of Cork qualified with the lowest total at $165,500 while Imawildandcrazyguy pulled into Churchill Downs with $104,000.

With Sweet Ducky and Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) winner Brethren currently tied in the twentieth spot on the grade stakes earning list at $120,000, it is not difficult to imagine or even predict it will take more than last year’s $218,000 to qualify for Kentucky Derby 137.

Although $8.8 million in 17 races seem like a good number of opportunities for a Derby hopeful, don’t think that makes those dollars and races any less precious. Realistically, each horse has two more stops on the trail before Kentucky in the next 60 days or so. Some connections may push for three starts, but that is just not practical - especially if a five-week Triple Crown is at all a part of their plan.

Choosing those two races are perhaps some of the most important decisions a trainer can make leading up to the Derby. Case in point this year is Brethren. Brethren won the traditional prep race for the Tampa Bay Derby, the Sam Davis Stakes (gr. 3) Feb. 12. He is the logical favorite for the Tampa Bay Derby Saturday unless Uncle Mo runs. Uncle Mo is entered, but trainer Todd Pletcher is looking for another race that weekend for Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) winner and Champion Uncle Mo so as not to run him against Brethren. Uncle Mo is slated to start in the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park, also on Saturday, but if for some reason the Timely Writer does not fill with enough entries, Uncle Mo will be going into the Tampa Bay Derby.

With Brethren on the bubble the winner’s share of the $350,000 Tampa Bay Derby is $210,000. That would give him $330,000 in graded stakes earnings and probably enough to qualify for the Derby. But the second-place check of $35,000 puts Brethren at only $155,000 and in all likelihood in need of another big performance leading up to the Derby. That race would likely be in the late grade 1 preps like the Florida, Arkansas and Santa Anita Derbies or in the Wood Memorial. Other avenues for Brethren might include some of the lesser late preps like the Illinois Derby (gr. 3) April 9 or the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. 2) April 23. But Brethren would be in a must win situation in those races that have $250,000 and $200,000 purses respectively in order to get into the Derby. Even second place in, say the $1,000,000 Arkansas Derby would be $200,000 and third money of $100,000 may be enough to qualify.

So one can easily see the challenges ahead for those on top now, but also envision a set of circumstances that sees a Machen, currently ranked at 51 with $12,000, qualify for the Derby. Trained by Neil Howard, the son of Distorted Humor will have to improve vastly over his recent fourth in the grade 2 Risen Star in February. But imagine if he wins the $1 million Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) Mar. 26. With $612,000 in graded stakes earnings, he's Kentucky bound. Even with the second-place money of $200,000 and Machen is suddenly up from 51 to being at least the proverbial Kentucky Derby bubble of not enough to qualify.

There are so many decisions to be made by trainers with condition books and graded races to be run between now and the Kentucky Derby. Hence there will be races studied and evaluated by serious horse players, fans and trainers alike. Results will be recorded and horses will climb and fall the many Kentucky Derby lists published by turf writers and bloggers. But the list everybody will be watching is the graded stakes earnings of each Kentucky Derby hopeful. Because that's the one that counts.

Lookin at Four in the Haskell

The $1 million IZOD Haskell Invitational of 2010 has certainly met the challenge of attaining the standard set by the previous best versions of the 1-1/8 mile, grade 1, race. Won last year by Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra over eventual Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or Gelding Summer Bird and the site of one of epic battles of the 1980s when Alysheba tried valiantly to run down his Triple Crown nemisis Bet Twice in ’87 and failed, this year’s Haskell Invitational features nearly every top 3-year-old male in training.

The race features the first two finishers in the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands in Super Saver and Ice Box respectively and the top two finishers in the Preakness in winner Lookin at Lucky and second-place finisher First Dude. Only the Belmont Stakes is lightly represented with the winner Drosselmeyer on the sideline due to a minor injury and runner-up Fly Down running the previous day at Saratoga in the grade 2 Jim Dandy Stakes.

Because of the success of the Elite Summer Season at Monmouth Park and preponderance of some of the nation’s top stables running at the New Jersey track, this Haskell Invitational also brings the most legitimate winner of the local prep race (the Longbranch Stakes on in Trappe Shot, installed as the morning line co-second choice at 3-1.

Only horse racing can produce the irony of one of the best versions of the Haskell Invitational during a year when GAHP (Generally Accepted Handicapping Principals – I was an accounting major in college) have defined this crop of sophomores as mediocre at best.

And with that being said – let’s pick a winner. My comments in post position order.

1. Lookin at Lucky (Martin Garcia) – The morning line favorite at 5-2 odds is, in my opinion, the most logical winner. Whether one can bet on him at 5-2 is the question. He has a knack for trouble when he gets too far behind and young jockey Martin Garcia is likely to receive instructions from trainer Bob Baffert to stay engaged with the leaders. Baffert, who has won the Haskell three times with Point Given (2001), War Emblem (2002) and Roman Ruler in 2005, knows that closers have a difficult time getting to the winner’s circle in the Haskell. His 1-5 favorite Point Given won while overcoming the biggest deficit at the half-mile pole in the last ten runnings of the Haskell at 4 lengths. Point Given won by a half-length over 13-1 shot Touch Tone and 7-1 choice Burning Roma. In other words: stay close.

2. Afleet Again (Joe Bravo) – Not even the best 3-year-old colt named “Afleet” to have run at Monmouth Park this year having lost to Afleet Express in the grade 3 Pegasus June 19. Breaking from the 2 post will help him improve off of his last two wide trips at Monmouth Park as will local leading jockey Joe Bravo. But he’ll need a bigger boost than that to have an impact on this field.

3. Ice Box (Jose Lezcano) – The winner of the Florida Derby, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby and the favorite in the Belmont Stakes. Trouble in Kentucky and a bad day in New York kept this Nick Zito trainee from a Triple Crown credential. Needs a fast pace to run down and still belongs to the mysterious, riddle-wrapped enigma club of this class. Recent Haskell history is also against him from a pace standpoint. See comments on Point Given.

4. First Dude (Ramon Dominguez) – If speed is what you need to win the Haskell Invitational than nobody comes more prepared than 6-1 morning line choice First Dude. If the Preakness and Belmont are 1-1/8 miles, you may be looking at the winner of both races. But the Preakness is a sixteenth of a mile and the Belmont three furlongs longer. The Haskell is not. It is exactly 1-1/8 miles and it may be exactly the distance for perennial second and third fiddle First Dude.

5. Our Dark Knight (Elvis Trujillo) – The Rabbit. Owned by Robert V. LaPuenta and trained by Nick Zito, Our Dark Knight has apparently been entered into the Haskell to insure an honest pace for the connection’s stable star Ice Box. Look for this allowance race winner to shoot to the lead in an effort to disrupt any possibility of a slow pace by First Dude – then fade into the dark night that is the Haskell also rans.

6. Super Saver (Calvin Borel) – Ice Box has nothing on this guy in the mysterious enigma department. The Kentucky Derby winner flopped in the Preakness running eighth and had previous trouble living up to his juvenile expectations before the run for the roses. His Kentucky Derby was a dream trip, which jockey Calvin Borel is more than capable of delivering Sunday. It was also on a sloppy track. There is also a chance of a sloppy track Sunday at Momouth Park. Super Saver has every ability to capitalize on both. I’ll pass at 3-1 morning line odds but will definitely have him in my exotics.

7. Uptowncharlybrown (Rajiv Maragh) – The horse that runs for the memory of late trainer Alan Seewald had one of those unexplainable mishaps in the Belmont Stakes
while running fifth, just three lengths off of winner Drosselmeyer. During the running of the race, the saddle pad carrying the additional weight necessary to give jockey Rajiv Maragh the needed 126 pounds of assigned weight, slipped completely out from under the securing girth straps and fell to the track. One can only assume that, despite carrying some ten pounds or so less weight to the finish line, the balance and effectiveness of Maragh was compromised. Uptowncharlybrown and Maragh will have to be closer to lead in the Haskell than they usually like so the pace circumstances may be too big of an obstacle to overcome for the win. But don’t leave him out of your exactas.

8. Trappe Shot (Alan Garcia) – If you are a Beyer Speed Figure disciple then this Kiaran McLaughlin trainee is an attention getter. In his last two starts (in the ungraded Longbranch Stakes at Monmouth and an allowance race at Belmont Park) he has registered 105 Beyer numbers in both races. The next best Beyer in the Haskell field is Super Saver and his 104 in the Derby and Lookin at Lucky with a 102 in the Preakness. Neither them nor anybody else in the Haskell has two triple digit Beyer numbers on their resume. He also has the speed to win the Haskell, never laying more than 1-1/2 lengths of the leader in any of his last four consecutive victories. It’s a big jump in class from the Longbranch to the Haskell and no horse has ever accomplished the double. So despite his Beyer credentials, I’m leaving him to my exotics.

Selections: 1-4-3

Haskell Has Skins As Eclipse Award Barometer

With a stellar and competitive field assembling on the Jersey shore for the $1 million IZOD Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) Sunday, perhaps the best bet of the race will be that the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or Gelding of 2010 will come out of Monmouth Park’s marquee event.

In a Triple Crown that saw no horse win more than one race and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) winner Drosselmeyer on the sidelines through August, there is no clear cut favorite for 3-year-old championship title.

The $1 million Haskell at 1-1/8 miles is expected to feature Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) presented by Yum! Brands winner Super Saver (top photo), Preakness (gr. 1) winner Lookin at Lucky, Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up Ice Box and First Dude, second in the Preakness. So other than Drosselmeyer and Belmont second-place finisher Fly Down, who is headed for the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) Saturday at Saratoga, the current 3-year-old crop is well represented in the Haskell.

There are also a slew of other Haskell contenders that could still be champion honorees with potential wins left this year in the Travers Stakes (gr. 1) later in August at Saratoga and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs November 5. A late season hot streak by Uptowncharlybown or Trappe Shot would give them credentials to at least enter the discussion.

History also makes a pretty good case for the Haskell producing a divisional champion. In the previous 42 runnings of the race, 15 Haskell starters have gone to become the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or Gelding, two have been named Champion 3-Year-Old Filly; and five of those 17 have been named Horse of the Year at year’s end.

The 2009 Haskell would go on to produce the most decorated group as winner Rachel Alexandra became the Champion 3-Year-Old Filly and Horse of the Year while Summer Bird, second to Rachel Alexandra in the Haskell, was named the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt.

Serena’s Song in 1995, is the only other filly to win the Haskell Invitational and she was also given the Eclipse Award that year as the Champion 3-Year-Old Filly.

Champion production has been going one for nearly 40 years in Haskell going back to 1974 when Kentucky Derby winner Little Current went on to become Champion 3-Year-Old Colt or gelding after finishing second to Holding Pattern in the Haskell. A year later, Wajima won the Haskell and the championship.

In 1983, Slew O’Gold won the Champion 3-Year-Old male title after finishing sixth in the Haskell behind Preakness winner Deputed Testamony. Two years later Spend A Buck became the first future Horse of the Year to start in the Haskell, finishing second to Skip Trial at Monmouth Park.

In 1994 Holy Bull won the Horse of the Year and divisional honors after winning the Haskell but it was the decade of the oughts when Eclipse Award winners began coming off the Haskell assembly line. From 2001 through last year, seven Haskell starters have been named divisional champions including and Point Given (2001) (photo right), Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra all also received the gold trophy for Horse of the Year.

Big Brown (2008), Funny Cide (2003) and War Emblem (2002), all Kentucky Derby winners, were the other divisional champions from the decade along with Summer Bird and Rachel Alexandra. Big Brown and War Emblem were also Haskell winners while Funny Cide was third behind the speedy Peace Rule at Monmouth Park.

So this year’s Haskell Invitational, like most, is more than just a rematch of some Triple Crown contenders, locals and late bloomers. It is perhaps a pre-cursor to the road to championship.

Brock Belmont Bet Swings Hard

To those who believe Ice Box was the best horse in the Kentucky Derby and that he will benefit from the additional quarter-mile distance of the “Big Sandy,” the Belmont must be an easy race to handicap. And that of course, is the reason he is the 3-1 favorite. Coming from the popular barn of Nick Zito doesn’t hurt the colt’s popularity either.

But Ice Box won’t get the fast Derby pace in the Belmont. In fact, I predict quite the opposite. The first half-mile of the Belmont is often a gallop. And sometimes the pace remains slow during the first mile. That puts a lot of pressure on a closer and his jockey and gives me enough ammunition to eliminate Ice Box.

So pace makes the race right? And First Dude will get to that easy, uncontested lead (even from the #11 post position) and gallop to the finish line.

Nope. I’m not betting that either. To beat First Dude, I’m incorporating the “bounce” handicapping theory. That is, I’m betting that he won’t repeat the Preakness performance in which he almost wired the field to run a gallant second to Lookin at Lucky. I’m not usually a “bounce” advocate, but First Dude ran a race that is significantly better than anything he produced prior to that Preakness. I have to believe he will regress at least somewhat off of that giant performance.

How do I beat Dwyer winner Fly Down then? I can’t. I think this Nick Zito trainee looks primed for a big performance in the Belmont. He has all of the home field advantage, which can sometimes be very important in the Belmont Stakes. He has a win over the track, New York top jockey John Velazquez and Zito.

So how I am going to justify betting against Fly Down? On value alone. With all of the New York support, he is likely to be over bet. And with an evenly matched field like this Belmont, value is my prime directive.

So that leads me to my top choice: Uptowncharlybrown. This horse has been pointed toward the Belmont Stakes since early this year by late trainer Alan Seewald and he is in able Belmont hands now in the barn of Kiaran McLaughlin. McLaughlin is a former D. Wayne Lukas assistant who won the 2006 Belmont with Jazil and I’m betting he will do it again here with Uptowncharlybrown.

His third-place finish in the Lexington was against a speed favoring racetrack that compromised his chances and the winner of that race, Exhi, came back to impressively win the Marine Stakes at Woodbine. Uptowncharlybrown also gets jockey Rajiv Maragh and all of his Belmont Park success and experience to negotiate the dynamics of the largest oval in North American racing. McLaughlin has also taken the blinkers off of Uptowncharlybrown, which should allow him to be much closer to the pace and within striking distance at the top of the stretch.

My other key horse – again swinging for the IRS window fences here a little bit – is Interactif, from the Kentucky Derby winning connections of trainer Todd Pletcher and WinStar Farm. No horse has ever won the Belmont Stakes from the number 12 post position, but I don’t think Interactif and jockey Javier Castellano will have any problem settling into a stalking position.

If he takes to the Belmont Park surface during the last half of the Belmont the way he has for the last two weeks of training, he is a prime candidate to win the Test of Champions at a decent price.
Because I’m looking for some bigger prices in the Belmont, I’m going to reduce my investments by playing exactas only. So I’m going to key my two upset contenders to run first or second with the three logical winners and betting favorites.

$2 Exacta (8 Bets. Total Cost = $16)
1st - 3-12
2nd – 3-5-6-11-12

$2 Exacta (8 Bets. Total Cost = $16)
1st – 3-5-6-11-12
2nd – 3-12

Total cost is $32.

We need #3 Uptowncharlybrown or #12 Interactif to finish first or second along with #5 Fly Down, #6 Ice Box or #11 First Dude completing the exacta. Note however, that if Uptowncharlybrown and Interactif finish first and second in any order, we hit the exacta twice.

Good luck Belmont fans.

Belmont Posts Not Likely To Influence Race Outcome

Post positions for the $1 million Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) have been set and the third leg of the Triple Crown will have a field of twelve. At the marathon distance of 1-1/2 miles, the importance of starting gate positions is almost negligible, but there are two notes of interest when looking at this year's race.

The most likely pace setter in the race, First Dude, breaks from post position 11 Saturday and jockey Calvin Borel breaks from post position number one on longshot Dave in Dixie.

With more than an eighth of a mile (843 feet) from the starting gate to the clubhouse turn, jockey Ramon Dominguez should have little trouble urging and steering First Dude into a safe position near the front of the pack before they reach the first turn. But being in the 11 post will offer slightly more of a challenge that had he drawn further inside.

Borel, famous for his rail hugging riding style that has produced three of the last four Kentucky Derbies, begins the race in his most comfortable position from the far inside post. While the inside post can be a curse in the 20-horse field and running out of the chute in the Derby, the slow early pace of the Belmont allows for horses to settle and relax from nearly any position.

The inside post has been by far the most productive in the history of the Belmont, producing 23 winners, 40% more than any other starting spot going back to 1905 when post position records were first kept for the race. The post that has produced the second most winners is the five gate with 14, followed the three post with 13 and the seven post with 12 winners.

If you are offered an odd-even proposition bet in the Belmont, be sure to take the odds. Odd numbered posts have accounted for 68 wins during that time while 36 winners have started from an even numbered post. No horse has ever won the Belmont Stakes outside of the 11 post and only four have won from the 10 and 11 holes combined (2 each).

Ice Box (photo), as expected, is listed at the morning line favorite at 3-1 odds while breaking from post six.

At one time, the Belmont Stakes had an extraodinary record of winning favorites. During the first 96 Belmonts with pari-mutuel wagers, 49 of the 96 races were won by the favorite. Even more extraodinary, another 34 were second or third for an incredible in-the-money rate of 86%. Only 13 favorites between 1877 and 1978 finished worse than third and all finished the race.

Since 1978, only 6 favorites have won the 31 Belmonts for a 19% win rate. But nine of them finished worse than third compared to 13 in the previous 96 wagering Belmonts and for the first time, favorites Prairie Bayou (1993), Cavonnier ('96) and Big Brown (2008) did not finish the race. The in-the-money rate during that span has been a respectable 71% with 22 of the favorites finishing first, second or third but favorites have not fared well for their supporters with win tickets.

So if Ice Box is to somehow benefit from the Belmont history gods, he'll have to go back further than 1978 before he begins to ask around. And there is plenty of room in the Belmont history books as the Belmont Stakes is the fourth oldest stakes race in North America. The Phoenix Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland was first run in 1831 and The Queens Plate in Canada first began in 1860. The Travers was first run at Saratoga in 1864. However, the Belmont, which will be run for the 142nd time in 2010, is third only to the Phoenix(157th running in 2009)and Queens Plate (150th running in 2009) in total runnings because the Travers has had gaps in its history and will be run for the 141st time this year.

Belmont Stakes Takes Shape With Large Field

The field for Saturday's Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) continues to take shape as trainer Todd Pletcher has indicated Interactif is now on schedule for the Belmont after his two most recent morning works convinced the trainer "to take a shot."

Having not started since a fourth-place finish in the grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland April 10, Pletcher told Daily Racing Form "He's been training really well on the dirt here. His work two back was really good and then he came back with another big work," he said, referring to the Saturday 1:00.41 clocking over five-eighths of a mile.

That brings the field size for the third leg of the Triple Crown to 12 with Kentucky Derby (gr. 1) runner-up Ice Box as the probable favorite. Ice Box will inherit the betting window popularity with the absence of Derby and Preakness winners Super Saver and Lookin at Lucky respectively. But the son of Pulpit also has several other factors in his favor coming into the Belmont.

Ice Box, who won the grade 1 Florida Derby just prior to the Derby, is trained by Nick Zito (top photo). The popular New Yorker who is looking for his third Belmont stakes after winning with Birdstone in 2004 and Da'Tara in 2008. Ice Box also has a furious late rally in his armament that many feel will be conducive to the long 1-1/2 mile Belmont.

Zito will take the home field advantage one step further with his other Belmont entry, Fly Down. In his last race, the son of Mineshaft roared to a six-length victory over fellow Belmont contender Drosselmeyer in the 1-1/8 mile Dwyer Stakes (gr. 2) at Belmont Park May 8. Fly Down has since looked good in two solid four furlong (1/2 mile) works at Belmont Park including a bullet work (fastest work at that distance that morning) Sunday in 47 2/5 seconds.

Monday morning at Belmont, Drosselmeyer put in a sparkling morning effort working five furlongs in :59 3/5 seconds. Last week Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott had indicated the promising young son of Distorted Humor had perhaps bruised his front "frogs" (the shock absorbers located on the sole of a horse's feet) and Daily Racing Form reported Drosselmeyer had worked in a protective bar shoe Monday. Mott has also indicated, however, that they do not intend to run Drosselmeyer with the bar shoe in the Belmont.

A $600,000 yearling purchase by owner WinStar Farm, Drosselmeyer missed qualifying for the Kentucky Derby after a fourth in the grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and a third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2), both at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. WinStar Farm would go on to win the Kentucky Derby with Super Saver and Drosslemeyer was pointed to the Belmont via the Dwyer.

While the Derby bridesmaid Ice Box will be getting much attention in the Belmont, the other Triple Crown race runner-up is sure to get some winning bets as well. First Dude almost went wire-to-wire in the Preakness and only lost to Lookin at Lucky by three-quarters of a length after a stretch-long battle. The Preakness by most handicapping standards, was a more impressive race than the Derby which seems to work in First Dude's favor. Those that favor speed horses in the long Belmont will also like First Dude, but he will likely have to run back to that career-best Preakness form to be a contender in the Belmont. So the handicapping "bounce" theory will be working against him Saturday.

Trainer Bob Baffert, who won the Preakness with Lookin at Lucky, will bring the "other" Dude in the Belmont Saturday when he leads Lone Star Derby (gr. 3) winner Game On Dude (left photo) to the paddock. While the Lone Star Derby was light on competition, the stalking four-length victory in Texas may be the right preparation for a horse that is perhaps improving this time of year.

Baffert won the 2001 Belmont with Preakness winner Point Given but has also experienced some of his most heartbreaking moments in racing in the Test of Champions. He narrowly lost the Triple Crown in 1987 with Silver Charm and again the next year when Real Quiet lost by a scant nose in New York after winning the Derby and Preakness. Four years later, the front running War Emblem stumbled at the start of the Belmont after winning the first two legs of the Triple Crown and finished a well beaten eighth in New York.

While the 2010 3-year-old crop has come under deserved scrutiny for their mediocrity compared to other classes, the Belmont continues to be an American classic based on it's Triple Crown status and more importantly the long distance. There have been plenty of late developing sophomore thoroughbreds that have had their coming out party in the Belmont including horses such as Summer Bird, Lemon Drop Kid, Tabasco Cat and Easy Goer to a certain degree.

At the very least, it is an intriguing betting race with a large field and many capable winners. Whether it is again a Test of Champions remains to be seen Saturday and during the remaining months of the 2010 season.

Light Beginning To Shine At End Of Belmont Tunnel

With less than two weeks until the grade 1 Belmont Stakes, there seems to be as much talk in the media and more chatter on about the potential closing of New York racing rather than the third leg in the Triple Crown. With Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Preakness winner Lookin at Lucky skipping the Belmont, it will be difficult for the field live up to the historical billing as the Test of Champions and to be held under such an umbrella of uncertainty doesn't make matters any better.

Although New York governor David Patterson offered the New York Racing Association, made up of Belmont Park, Saratoga and Aqueduct, a $25 million loan that would keep them in business through the Spring of 2011, the state Senate and Assembly must enact the legislation. NYRA officials have said they do not have the cash to remain open through June without the loan and has sent a lay-off warning to it's 1,300 employees so there is a great deal of urgency to the legislators necessary assistance.

Make no mistake that if Super Save had won the Preakness and was headed for a possible Triple Crown, the potential closure of NYRA would still be a significant story.

But with the absence of the Derby and Preakness winner and only three of the likely ten starters coming into the Belmont off a victory in their last race, it is not the brightest of times for the Belmont Stakes.

The most credible of the winning Belmont trio is the Nick Zito-trained Fly Down, a 6-length winner of the grade 2 Dwyer Stakes at Belmont Park May 8. Zito will be looking for his third Belmont Stakes after winning with the longshot Da'Tara in 2007 and stopping Smarty Jones' Triple Crown bid with Birdstone in 2004.

Prior to the Dwyer, Fly Down was never a factor when ninth in the Louisiana Derby and and had only an allowance and maiden wins to his credit.



The other two recent winners are Game On Dude, the Bob Baffert trainee who won a sub-par Lone Star Derby (gr. 3) May 8; and Stay Put, who won an allowance race at Churchill Downs in his last start.

Zito will come to the Belmont paddock well armed with with talent and class for the June 5 Belmont as he will also saddle probable favorite Ice Box (top photo). A hard charging second to Super Saver in the Kentucky Derby in his last race and winner of the Florida Derby (gr. 1) before that, Ice Box encountered several traffic problems in the Derby and was considered the best horse that day by many.

For those who have closely followed the Triple Crown trail throughout the Spring, Drosslemeyer will be a familiar name among this year's Belmont runners. Another in the arsenal of WinStar Farm-owned three-year-olds this year, Drosslemeyer missed qualifying for the Kentucky Derby after finishing fourth in the Risen Star Stakes and third in the Louisiana Derby, both grade 2 stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans before the Derby. Trainer Bill Mott has also employed the riding services of jockey Mike Smith for the Belmont replacing Kent Desormeaux. While Mott and Smith are Hall of Famers, both will be looking for their first Belmont Stakes victory.

Among others expected in the Belmont are First Dude, second in Preakness behind Lookin at Lucky; Kentucky Derby fourth-place finisher Make Music For Me and Uptowncharlybrown, third in the Lexington Stakes (gr. 2) at Keeneland in his last race. Uptowncharlybrown will be making his first start from the barn of trainer Kiaran McLaughlin after his trainer Alan Seewald passed away unexpectedly shortly be the Lexington. Longtime Seewald assistant Linda White was listed as the official trainer in the Lextingon Stakes.

Trained by Dale Romans, First Dude ran a very big race while almost stealing the Preakness Stakes in a gate to wire performance. Despite setting fast fractions while racing alone on the lead in the Preakness, he held on gamely when challenged by Lookin at Lucky, Carcortado, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist in the stretch. Despite the misconception that the 1-1/2 mile Belmont favors horses with a come-from-behind running style, a horse like First Dude can be dangerous alone on a slow lead.

So we head to the 142nd running of the Test of Champions under dark and uncertain skies. But before you become too disappointed in this inglorious Belmont, just remember less than a year ago when an unheralded Summer Bird came into the Belmont with a certain amount of anonymity, pulled a mild upset and went win the grade 1 Travers at Saratoga and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) over older horses. The credentials may not be attached to this field yet, but there is evidence of class.

And sometimes, that's more than enough to make a good horse race.

An Awesome Lookin Exacta

1. Lookin at Lucky (3-1) – Definitely battle tested with significant trouble in his last two races in the Rebel (gr. 2) victory and the third in the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). His unlucky draw into the inside post will be helped by Ice Box, who is next door in hole #2 and likely to fall back quickly, giving Lookin at Lucky a little space. He also has the ability to launch his rally from any location in the pack (he raillied from 10th to just miss by a head in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile) so if he gets shuffled back early, he can still roll from far back late. If you’re a fan, then 3-1 odds Saturday may be the best value you’ll ever see on this horse for a while. He's a potential super star who has looked great in the mornings. If he goes to 7-2 or higher, he’ll be irresistible.

2. Ice Box (10-1) – The winner of the Florida Derby (gr. 1) has many things going for him - not the least of which is the likely pace in this year’s Derby. He is one of two big closers (along with long shot and Ark. Derby winner Stately Vicor) in a year filled with front runners who are likely to insure an early fast pace. He is trained by 2-time Kentucky Derby winner Nick Zito and although the Florida Derby may not have been that strong, he ran down the leaders on his left lead. Traffic and the 6-week gap since the Florida Derby will be his biggest obstacles. I’m siding with the obstacles.

3. Noble’s Promise (12-1) – A bridesmaid to Lookin at Lucky in his two starts just previous to a disastrous Arkansas Derby that almost cost him a trip to this Derby because of cuts and bruises suffered at Oaklawn. It was also later discovered that Noble's Promise had lung infection that week that has also since been irradicated. Had a big work over the Churchill Downs mud Monday so it appears he’s recovered and ready.

4. Super Saver (15-1) – Second as the front runner in a suspect Arkansas Derby (gr. 1). If he couldn’t hold on as the speed in Arkansas, he's not likely to do it in Kentucky.

5. Line of David (30-1) – A long shot winner of the Arkansas Derby and a winner of three straight as an intriguing speed horse that is improving with distance. Will need some breaks and a slow pace to have a chance. A half-mile in 47 seconds ala 2002 winner War Emblem will be a plus, but that scenario is not likely this year with all the competing gas.

6. Stately Victor (30-1) – He won the Blue Grass (gr. 1) on Keeneland’s Polytrack at 40-1 odds. His other win came against maidens. Distance won’t be the problem with this horse with 7 of 8 races at 1-1/16 miles or further. Talent may be the challenge.

7. American Lion (30-1) – Won the Illinois Derby (gr. 3) as the front runner on a Hawthorne track that may have favored his style. In much the same boat as other speed horses needing some luck and a slow pace but his ability to lay back in second/third might come in handy if he can rate in the Derby. At big odds he stays on the bottom of my superfecta, and not much else.

8. Dean’s Kitten (50-1) – He looks like a turf horse that took to the Polytrack at Turfway and defeated a weak Lane’s End (gr. 2) group. Just not much I like about this horse.

9. Make Music For Me (50-1) – The second to last horse to get into the Derby Wednesday morning and eight lengths behind Stately Victor in the Blue Grass in his last race. Doesn’t mind being behind the front runners and making a late move, but his only win came on grass in an ungraded stakes in California.

10. Paddy O’Prado (20-1) – He looks like another turf horse who adapted well to Keeneland’s Polytrack and ran a second in the Blue Grass behind Stately Victor. Not sure that will translate in the Kentucky Derby but he has looked good in the mornings this week.

11. Devil May Care (10-1) – Will be trying to become only the fourth filly to win the Kentucky Derby in 136 years so odds are against her. Word has it she’s been training the best of Pletcher’s army and put in nice final work Saturday to convince the trainer to let her go. Six weeks since her nice win against fillies in the Bonnie Miss (gr. 3) in Florida raises additional questions, although a very nice race and one of the few in this field to achieve a triple digit Beyer Speed Figure (100 in Bonnie Miss.) Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez won the Belmont with the filly Rags To Riches and I’m sure they’d like to each pick up the first Derby victory with another female.

12. Conveyance (12-1) – Strategy will be to go to the lead and let the others try to catch him much like Baffert trainee War Emblem in the 2002 Kentucky Derby win. Undefeated until second in Sunland Derby (gr. 3), a race in which Baffert said he was not on his game. His sire, Indian Charlie, couldn’t run successfully at 1-1/4 miles so that is a concern along with others who want to run on the lead. He has been impressive in his works, but I’m not going to play him at 12-1 odds.

13. Jackson Bend (15-1) – A distant second to once Derby favorite Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial who has worked very well at Churchill. Nick Zito, who can win Derbies and pull upstets in Triple Crown races will need all of Zito’s talent and luck to adorn the blanket of roses.

14. Mission Impazible (20-1) – My favorite of the Pletcher horses with a stalking running style, a good work at Churchill Saturday and comments from the trainer about this horse’s “improvement.” On paper there are additional signs of him getting better so he has all the right ingredients of a horse perhaps “peaking at the right time,” (A most important spice with intentions of cooking on Derby Day.)

15. Discreetly Mine (30-1) – Pletcher’s “Anti“ Mission Impazible who looks like he might have peaked in his Risen Star (gr. 2) victory in February then a fourth in the La. Derby. Another speed horse that is not even on my top tier of front runners.

16. Awesome Act (10-1) – British invader who crossed the pond to finish 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November before going home for the winter. Flew back to United States to win the Gotham Stakes (gr. 2) in New York before finishing third to Eskendereya in the Wood when losing a shoe after stumbling out of the starting gate. Works have not been great but I like his chances at double digit odds and will be my top choice on some trifecta and superfecta tickets.

17. Dublin (12-1) – Came home a weak third in the Arkansas Derby which didn’t concern me as Lukas may not have wound him real tight for that race. But his training at Churchill Downs has not been as sharp as what I would have liked. I kept thinking this horse would give me something to hang a wager on… but no to the any positive signs and no to getting 12-1 when I think there’s better value elsewhere.

18. Backtalk (50-1) – The Brock Talk has been a fan of this horse since we began following him shortly after he broke his maiden in June. He is the final horse to qualify for this Kentucky Derby and the 50-1 odds are certainly fair after a dull third in the Illinois Derby. He is by Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones and will benefit from his stalking running style and if can show the quick turn of foot he had in winning a minor stake at Delta Downs in Louisiana. According to trainer Tom Amoss, if it rains Saturday, 100,000 fans will be upset, but Backtalk will be happy.

19. Homeboykris (50-1) – You may hear or read about horses who are 50-1 in the Kentucky Derby when they should be 100-1. Homeboykris is just such a horse with his last win coming in October in the grade 1 Champagne. While a nice victory, it was seven months and his last race, a loss in a non-stake race at only one mile, was more than two months ago.

20. Sidney’s Candy (5-1) – I’m not one to put too much into post positions, especially with a horse like Sidney’s Candy with a ton of speed who will have the entire field to his inside as jockey Joe Talamo picks a spot for him to negotiate the first turn. Although trainer John Sadler says the horse will also rate just fine, he appears to be the best of the speedsters by quite a margin and an expected improvement off of the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita keeps him among the best even with the outside starting point. He has the breeding to run all day and looked good while extending his lead in the Santa Anita Derby. His morning works have been fast enough but reports are not glowing as to how he looked doing it under more than expected urging from the rider. He’ll be second and third on a lot of my tickets, but not on top.

Kentucky Derby: Pace, Traffic and Faith

One of oldest and most sound handicapping principles in thoroughbred racing is "pace makes the race." The study of handicapping under this theory dictates that each horse in a given race be classified as a front runner, a stalker or a closer. (Different systems have different terms, but the definitions are fairly consistent). After which the potential prognosticator attempts to map out the race at different stages relative to the competitors positions and energy used and determine which has the best chance to win.If there are too many front runners, the thinking goes, they will fight each other for the lead and run too fast, too early, tire and eventually surrender the lead to the stalkers and closers. A lone speed horse, on the other hand, may dictate a slow pace and have plenty to withstand the late challengers.

Without question, the first scenario appears very likely in the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Among the 20 most likely Derby starters as of Tuesday, no less than seven of them are legitimate speed horses including Sidney's Candy (photo), the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) winner and the probable second choice in the betting behind only Lookin at Lucky.

With that many horses going for the lead, the pace of this year's Kentucky Derby figures to be very rapid and will theoretically compromise the chances of the front running horses. Of the seven speed horses in the Derby, Line of David, Conveyance and Sidney's Candy are the most apt at winning from the front end and are likely to try to set the pace in the Derby.

The jockeys on these speed horses will be riding much more aggressively out of the gate and during the first quarter-mile run past the grandstand for the first time and looking for the few front row spots around the famous clubhouse turn.

Each year hundreds of photos are taken of the horses running around the first turn in the Kentucky Derby with the twin spires in the backround. Television producers also make a point of taking annual signature shot of the stampede around the first. For the jockeys aboard the front runners - it is their first job in the race to make that shot. You don't have to be the first one in the picture, but the cameras better see you. The race is most like over for any front runner lost back in the pack that early.

Eleven of the Derby contenders appear to be stalkers and will most likely be making up the middle of the pack as the field begins their run down the Churchill Downs backstretch.

Note: After saying Monday that Interactif was unlikely for the Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher said a final decision will be made Wednesday. That would eliminate Backtalk should Interactif enter.

Of this group, Paddy O'Prado, Jackson Bend and Homeboykris are the most likely to be nearest the leaders as they have raced very near the front runners in their recent races and are thus most vulnerable to also getting caught in a fast pace early. While the other stalkers appear to be more flexible in how they can be placed by their jockey during the race. Notable horses such as Lookin at Lucky, Devil May Care, Mission Impazible, Awesome Act and Noble's Promise should fall into the second tier of stalkers.

The stalkers will be looking to have a clean break from the gate and an uneventful first run past the grandstand and into the clubhouse turn. The objective of the jockeys aboard these stalkers will be to avoid as much of the inevitable traffic jam caused when the 20 horses begin to negotiate positions in the first 400 yards. Going into the first turn, those plans can collide and horses can bump, check, jostle and even stumble. The stalkers are most likely to get the brunt of that traffic and can also lose all chance of victory at this point as well.

Down the backstretch, relaxation and rhythm will be everyone's goal. Jockeys will be hoping for a ride with still hands, long reins and a straight back that will hold a martini glass and not spill a drop.

Near the red and white pole near the far turn a half-mile from the finish, the jockeys hands will begin to move as front runners begin to tire and stalkers and closers begin to rally. Turn number two also provides the second bevy of traffic obstacles, but this time it will be more vertical as the jockeys on any potential winners begin to steer around and through the stopping pretenders.

As three-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer Bob Baffert says, "At the top of the stretch, you just want your horse to have a chance to win. If they're backing up at that point, it's just not very fun."

The Churchill Downs stretch is one of the longest in North America at 1,097 feet from the far turn to the finish line - just 223 feet short a quarter-mile. So closer and late stalkers have plenty of ground closers to run down any front runners.

How that turns out Saturday, nobody yet knows. But it is sure to be another fitting conclusion to the most exciting two minutes in sports.

Tuesday Work Recap from Mike Welsh Daily Racing Form

More Derby Fun Facts
102 of the 135 previous winners of the Kentucky Derby 102 were foaled in Kentucky. Florida is next with six winners followed by Virginia (4), California (3) and Tennessee (3)... Citation (1948) (coupled with Coaltown) and Count Fleet (1943) each paid $2.80. These were the smallest winning prices recorded since pari-mutuel betting on the Derby was introduced in 1908...

Time Not On The Side of Ice Box

In looking at Ice Box in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) I don't see much wrong with the performance. Like most runners with a come-from-behind style, he seemingly galloped along far back behind a solid pace then excelled with agility and speed on the far turn, raced around the field and chased down the stubborn leaders Rule and Pleasant Prince for the win.

No doubt the quick pace benefited Ice Box and the stalking Pleasant Prince while potentially hindering the chances of front-running Rule, but a similar if not quicker pace is more than likely in the Kentucky Derby. The Run for the Roses will also be a run through traffic for Ice Box and any other late runners and the large field in Kentucky will accentuate racing luck.

There are two obvious points to make about the 2010 Florida Derby however. First, it was without the first three finishers from the main local prep, the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2), including the impressive winner Eskendereya who defected to New York for the Wood Memorial (gr. 1) in two weeks. Which takes us to the second point regarding the Florida Derby and it's new time slot six weeks before the Derby.



That timing makes the Florida Derby a bit like mama bear's porridge. A month and-a-half may be too long to train leading up to the biggest race in the world. And it may not be enough time to squeeze in another start. Thus the delimma for Nick Zito (photo) and Wesley Ward, the trainers of Ice Box and Pleasant Prince respectively.

The Florida Derby has a long history of producing Kentucky Derby winners, but it also has a reputation for moving around the calendar. Thunder Gulch won the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby in 1995, as did Monarchos in 2001. But there was a seven week gap before Kentucky during those years. Both horses raced again before winning their Derbies and both finished second - Thunder Gulch in the Louisiana Derby and Monarchos in the Wood Memorial.

Big Brown and Barbaro, the last two Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby winners in 2008 and '06 respectively, both had only five weeks between the two races. Both went directly from Florida to Kentucky.

Neither Zito nor Ward have indicated their plans, other than to say they both want to go to Kentucky, as does trainer Todd Pletcher with Florida Derby third-place finisher Rule. All three trainers are well qualified to take the Derby but only Zito has done it - with Strike the Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994.

Zito did tell ESPN's Paul Moran that he is "going to try as hard as I can to win the Kentucky Derby with this horse." Coming from Zito that means something. But how he plans to manage it, remains to be seen. Then comes the if.