Deep Florida Derby Has Trainers In The Know

There is no question the Florida Derby (gr. 1) Sunday at Gulfstream Park is the deepest prep race for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands so far this year. And Sandra Bullock is more popular than Jesse James. The race has two horses that are ranked in the top five of most Derby watch lists this Spring, two other top ten candidates and four new comers to the Triple Crown trail including a monkey wrench. The eventual winner is the mystery.

The favorite is Soldat, a good looking son of War Front who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26. Although War Front was a sprinter and Soldat’s grandsire, Rubiano, was a champion sprinter, Soldat has had little trouble winning his two previous starts this year, both at the Florida Derby distance of 1-1/8 miles. Befor the Fountain of Youth, Soldat also won a 9 furlong allowance race in February by more than 10-1/2 lengths.

Soldat has used his speedy genetics to win both races from gate to wire, making one think jockey Alan Garcia might employ the same tactics in the Florida Derby. However, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (photo right) calls the game plan and it is doubtful he wants Soldat to race to the front Sunday. “He does everything right,” McLaughlin said on Televison Games Network. “The only thing I’d like to change is for him to get some dirt in his face. Whether it be in the Florida Derby or in the morning, we might do both. But on the first Saturday in May, you don’t want to be on the lead.”

Soldat has already fulfilled his morning “dirt in the face” requirement, beginning his Mar. 20 five furlong work behind two runners from the McLaughlin stable before accelerating around them to complete the assigned task. The grimy trip didn’t seem to bother Soldat much as he recorded a bullet work in 1:00 3/5, the fastest of 29 five-eighths of a mile works at Palm Meadows that morning. Odds are that McLaughlin wants to fulfill the other “dirt in the face” requirement Sunday.

Regardless of McLaughlin’s strategy, trainer Rick Dutrow looks to have his sights on the early lead in the Florida Derby with his late entrant Flashpoint. Like Soldat, Flashpoint is by a young sire who was successful on the track as a sprinter. His sire Pomeroy won the King’s Bishop and Kelso Handicap, both grade 1 races at seven furlongs in New York. Unlike Soldat, however, Flashpoint has never been further than the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes, a grade 2 race on Feb. 26 he won by seven and a half lengths.

Flashpoint breaks from the outside post in the eight-horse field, but he figures to the first leader in the Florida Derby and perhaps putting McLaughlin at some ease for the moment. Should Soldat also want the lead as his past performances may indicate, that would be the wrench du monkey previously mentioned.

A trainer that will be rooting for Soldat and Flashpoint to battle each early, is two-time Kentucky Derby winning condition Nick Zito, who saddles 2-1 second choice Dialed In. Considered among the future book favorites to win in Kentucky, the son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft is a classic late closer. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs coming from last in a 12-horse field and then won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) Jan. 30 at Gulfstream Park coming from last, ten lengths off the lead.

Scheduling challenges and a need to expand out to nine furlongs, forced Zito to run Dialed In against older horses in a Mar. 6 optional claiming. A slow pace in that race also presented a challenge for the young closer and jockey Julien Laparoux, but they rallied to finish second to remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Having some difficulty staying on the Derby track is To Honor and Serve who finished a tired looking third behind Soldat In the Fountain of Youth. Coming from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (photo left) somewhat eases those concerns for To Honor and Serve fans, but that does not reduce the necessity of a much improved performance in the Florida Derby in order to stay the Kentucky course.

If the Derby path had somehow narrowed to a straight line down the stretch of Aqueduct’s inner track on March 5, it is uncertain if Stay Thirsty would still be aboard. But the Derby path didn’t constrict and Stay Thirsty remains pointed toward Kentucky.

Although Stay Thirsty won the grade 3 Gotham Stakes that day, he looked less than professional in doing so. That day he broke poorly but jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to eventuall place him into contention. Turning for home, Stay Thirsty veered in without impeding another horse before then changing leads a few times. But his talent endurred and Stay Thirsty drew off to win the Gotham by just over three lengths.

It was the first start of the year for Stay Thirsty, so trainer Todd Pletcher looked at the Gotham with a glass half full attitude - seeing the room for improvement in his young son of Bernadini. He will put blinkers on Stay Thirsty in the Florida Derby to help him focus and seems confident he’ll see a smarter Stay Thirsty this time.

Rounding out the Florida Derby are Arch Traveler, Bowman’s Causeway and Shackleford, all at 20-1 and none of which are stakes winners.

There have been eleven Kentucky Derby winners who ran in the Florida Derby without winning. The most recent of those was Monarchos who took the 2001 Run for the Roses after finishing second in Florida. Before that, both Thunder Gulch (1995) and Go For Gin (’94) won Kentucky Derbies after finishing fourth in their respective Florida Derbies.

Pletcher, McLaughlin, Mott, Pletcher and Zito probably know of a few of those horses. Zito does. He trained Go For Gin. The four trainers also know their horses likely have enough graded earnings to qualify for the big prize at Churchill. And despite the $1 million purse in Florida, the riches and prestige of the Kentucky have no rival in North American horse racing – perhaps even the world.

So a loss Sunday does not present any type of third strike or punch off the proverbial trail to the Kentucky Derby. But the talent in this field in abundant and wide spread – even hidden, perhaps, in one of the three long shots. The light prep races disappeared with the days of February and March and time is eroding the options for change as the first Saturday in May nears.

Still the Florida Derby is not life or death. But a bad race by any of the promising contenders will surely cause less than comfortable illness for the previously hopeful connections. You can bet the four trainers know that too.

Belmont Stakes Will Be Tough Challenge For Jockey Calvin Borel.

If anybody saw jockey Calvin Borel on the Late Show with David Letterman last night, they saw pretty much what would be expected. Honest-to-goodness Calvin Borel. Ever polite and quite composed, he was as insightful as the format allowed and he came through with his patent unpredictability when Letterman stunned him with the outfit question. My bottom line is that anytime one gets to hear a good horseman like Borel talk about good horses it's cool.

But I fear Calvin has a tough task ahead of him on favorite Mine That Bird today in the Belmont. And nobody could have said it better than Churchill Downs Communications man Darren Rogers. Today on his facebook page Rogers admitted that he and his Chuchill crew will be pulling for Mine That Bird in New York, but that he saw an upset in the making. The villian according to Rogers? Pace. The very thing I have written about throughout the week.

What is Borel going to do when the pace of the Belmont is slow as anticpated. Will he move Mine That Bird within striking distance a little earlier? Will that comprosise his patent late rush? Or Borel can lay far back behind a slow pace and still try to make a still make that late run and hope he can still catch the less tired leaders. To me this is the second most anticipated point in the race behind only the finish... and way ahead of the singing of New York New York.

On paper Dunkirk looks to me to be the logical choice. His second-place finish behind Quality Road in the Floriday Derby in late March is a far better performance than most of these other runners have yet achieved. He will also be saddled by champion trainer Todd Pletcher and ridden by jockey John Valazquez, a perenial leader among the East Coast riders. Valazquez knows the large Belmont oval known as the "big sandy" as well as anybody and won the Belmont Stakes two years ago with Pletcher and the filly Rags to Riches.

According to Progessive Handicapping, Borel has only three races over the Belmont track in the last three years with a second and a third. The record is of little consequence. What concerns me is that the 1-1/2 main track at Belmont Park is 50 percent larger than the Kentucky and Arkansas tracks on which Borel regularly rides. Many riders have fallen victim to the big track at the Big Apple and that list does not discriminate against Hall of Famers.

Usually much more reserved, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has been boasting all week about his Belmont starter Charitable Man. The anticipated second choice in the wagering is coming off of a victory at Belmont Park in winning the grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes May 9 so we know he likes the track. And Charitable Man does have the home-track advantage as well as McClughlin has been basing Charitbable Man out of his barn at Belmont Park.

Nobody wants Mine That Bird and Calvin Borel to win this race more than me. Not only do I think it would be very fun to have a horse like Mine That Bird continue on his path to racing stardom, but to see Calvin Borel win the Triple Crown in such distinctive fashion will be somthing people will remember for a long time. If Mine That Bird achieves to status and following of the last Kentucky Derby winning gelding Funny Cide, it will be to the benefit of all racing fans. That late acceleration that he has makes him even more exciting and fun to watch.

And those post-victory horseback interviews with Borel on network television are worth the price of admission alone. It won't matter if we see the emotional Calvin Borel we saw following the Kentucky Derby or a more calm Calvin Borel talking about how he just chirped to the little horse and he just went on. Listening to Borel talk about horses is cool.