A Quick Start to another HOY Campaign

Veterinary science definitively tells us that horses are unable to read, despite what many think how Mr. Ed, the talking horse on the 1950s television program by the same name, was able to stay on script. Even if they could read, it is doubtful Florida-bred star Ron the Greek knew he was not being considered as a candidate for Horse of the Year in 2012, or even that he is capable of comprehending the concept of an award.

But on Jan. 19, in the $400,000 Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park, he ran like he knew his connections had not been invited as finalists to the awards gala, also held at the Hallandale Beach track just hours after race. In other words, Ron the Greek seemed to be running with a vengeance. And if such a thing existed, it may not have been a vengeance against the Eclipse Award voters who snubbed the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) winner and Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Whitney Handicap (G1) runner-up by not even giving him a second or third-place vote.

It may have been a reprisal against fellow Sunshine Millions Classic defending champion Mucho Macho Man, who had defeated runner-up Ron the Greek by a length and-a-half last year in this race.

Whatever the catalyst for the performance, Ron the Greek put in quite an effort to start his 2013 campaign and another possible run at Horse of the Year.

To those who saw the race in person, on television or on the internet, it was quite the spectacle.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott knew early in the race something was different with Ron the Greek, a son of the Hartley/DeRenzo stallion Full Mandate and the Fortunate Prospect mare Flambe’. At the half-mile pole of Ron the Greek’s three previous races, he was 12, 11 and nine and one-half lengths off of the early pace. But in the Sunshine Millions, he was much closer.

“We had asked [jockey] Jose [Lezcano] if he could, to stay a little closer. But I didn’t expect him to be that close,” Mott said of pace scenario that had longshot I’m Steppin’ It Up and wagering third-choice Fort Loudon running in a relatively quick :23.19 for the first quarter-mile and :46.59 for the first four furlongs while Ron the Greek was just four and-a-half lengths behind. “I thought… …the closest he’d be was 12 lengths.” But any concern Mott may have had, ended with three-eighths of a mile to go when Lezcano gave Ron the Greek the go-ahead to make his move.

By the time Ron the Greek hit the top of the stretch, he was seven lengths in front and still pulling away. Bred by Jack T. Hammer of Ocala, Ron the Greek eventually hit the wire more than 11 lengths in front of Cash Rules in second and Fort Loudon in third in a running time of 1:49.19.

While the time over the sloppy track may not have turned many heads, the 115 Beyer Speed Figure remains the best in North America on a main track at a mile or further this year through Feb. 1. And it was certainly good enough for Mott and owners Brous Stable, Wachtel Stable and Mr. Hammer to consider shipping again to Santa Anita in Southern California to defend their title in the Mar. 2, $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap.

There Ron the Greek is expected to meet Game on Dude, another older horse with Horse of the Year aspirations after winning the Grade 2 San Antonio Handicap on Feb. 2 at Santa Anita.

Yes, I admit it is a bit early to start campaigning for Ron the Greek to be Horse of the Year. There are still more than 10 months to go and as the late Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham said, “Thoroughbreds are like strawberries. They can go bad overnight.”

But if Ron the Greek stays as ripe as he was in the Sunshine Millions, it will be difficult on his adversaries in future contests. And maybe Ron the Greek will get those necessary nods from the voters for the golden trophy given to the Horse of the Year next January.

US Stars Have Dubai World Cup In Sights

With the recent announcement by trainer Bill Mott (photo right) that Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner Royal Delta will be pointed to the $10 million Dubai World Cup sponsored by Emirates Airlines, it appears the United States will again be well represented in the March 31 race. Earlier this month, trainer Graham Motion told Daily Racing Form that 2011 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands winner Animal Kingdom is also scheduled for the world’s richest horse race. The Dubai World Cup is run annually at the luxurious Meydan Race Club in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Royal Delta, purchased for $8.5 million at the Keeneland November Sale by Ben Leon’s Besilu Stables from breeder Palides Investments N. V., has been training lightly at Payson Park training Center in Florida and may make the Dubai World Cup her first start of the year. Last year as a 3-year-old, Royal Delta also won the Alabama Stakes and Black Eyed Susan Stakes in addition to her big score in the Ladies Classic. Mott will be trying for his second World Cup victory after winning the inaugural edition with Cigar in 1996.

Meanwhile, Animal Kingdom has been training more aggressively from Motion’s barn at Fair Hill Training Center in Maryland and may be headed to the Gulfstream Park Handicap on grass Feb. 11 before heading to Dubai for the World Cup. Motion also told Daily Racing Form that he has not ruled out a February turf race in Dubai either.

Two-time Dubai World Cup winning trainer Bob Baffert has also indicated that his star older horse, Game On Dude (photo left), may also make the international trip to Dubai this year. Game On Dude was last seen finishing second to Drosselmeyer in the Nov. 5 Breeders’ Cup Classic and also won the Santa Anita Handicap and Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita last year. Baffert won the 1998 Dubai World Cup with Kentucky Derby winner Silver Charm and the 2001 World Cup with Captain Steve.

Baffert told Daily Racing Form that he is planning to start Game On Dude next in the San Antonio Stakes Feb. 5 at Santa Anita and then will decide between defending his title in the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap or shipping to the Dubai World Cup after that.

The 10-furlong Dubai World Cup has been won by North American-based horses seven times. Others include Pleasantly Perfect in 2004 and Invasor, Curlin and Well Armed in 2007-09 respectively. Street Cry, winner of the 2002 World Cup, had raced in the United States at age two and three but was based in Dubai during the winter of his 4-year-old campaign and was owned by Sheikh Mohammed al Maktoum of Dubai. Sheikh Maktoum is the Vice President of the U.A.E., ruler of Dubai and owner of Meydan Race Club.

Help Needed For Large Louisiana Thoroughbred Rescue

The Louisiana Horse Rescue, Remember Me Rescue, Sabine Humane Society and the Louisiana State school of veterinary medicine are asking for your assistance in a 60-horse seizure currently underway in Many, Louisiana.

According to the Remember Me website and reports from KSLA-TV in Shreveport, La., some 25 horses have already been found dead with others assumed buried at the farm owned by Charles Ray Ford, 46, a thoroughbred owner and breeder in the Ark-La-Tex area.

Sabine Parish District Attorney Don Burkett reportedly has been to the site where some 53 broodmares and 20 yearlings were believed to be located as recent as 2010, and has indicated that felony animal cruelty charges will be levied against Ford. KSLA-TV reports also said they were told Burkett would levy a separate charge for each horse affected, whether deceased or starving. Less than half of the broodmares and only six yearlings have been found at the farm.

Horses that are healthy enough to move are being taken to New Orleans where they will be evaluated and rehabilitated. Remember Me reports on their website that the cost to care for the horses is currently $450 per day. Remember Me is a Texas-based horse rescue operation run by Donna Keen, wife of trainer Dallas Keen who races in Texas and Louisiana.

For more information and to help financially, go to the Remember Me website.

Process of Elimination Produces Classic Winner

There is money to be made betting on the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year.

The large 13-horse field will create large pools and Uncle Mo, the popular Champion 2-Year-Old Male and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner from last year, is the very beatable morning line favorite at 5-2. Uncle Mo is by the respected sire Indian Charlie who commands a $70,000 fee from his home at Airdre Stud in Midway, Kentucky. Since his first crop hit the track in 2002, Indian Charlie has produced more than 1,000 winners and more than 100 stakes wins. Along with Uncle Mo, Indian Charlie’s daughters Fleet Indian and Indian Blessing were also champions. Of the three, however, only Fleet Indian won at the Classic distance of 10 furlongs (1.25 miles). She won both the Personal Ensign Stakes in New York and the Delaware Handicap, both at 1-1/4 miles.

Indian Charlie’s nine furlong stigma is further illustrated by his racing career. After winning the prestigious 1-1/8 mile Santa Anita Derby, he finished third to Real Quiet in the Derby. The comment in the Daily Racing Form official chart for Indian Charlie, “held on well to the final furlong then weakened.” In other words, at nine furlongs Indian Charlie was a world beater. But between that last green and white pole and the finish line of a 1-1/4 race, folks from episode one of Biggest Loser were faster.

Combine his distance challenged genetics with his preparation for the Classic in the one mile Kelso Handic ap Oct. 1 at Belmont, and Uncle Mo gets cut from my list of top contenders. Be mindful that Uncle Mo should be the one to catch turning for home and should keep that lead deep into the stretch. So don’t leave him out of any exotic tickets you are considering.
Havre de Grace, the popular 4-year-old filly that already defeated older males this year in the Woodward Stakes, also gets crossed off my Classic list. Should she prove me wrong and win the Classic, Havre de Grace should become the third consecutive female Horse of the Year.

But questions were raised about her training when she abruptly stopped after a five furlong work in 1:02 flat Monday at Churchill. A week earlier at Keeneland, Havre de Grace put in a quick five furlong work over their polytrack, stopping the clock in :58.3. Everything else on her past performances places her among my top choices, but the quick stop in the work is enough of a red flag in a race as competitive as this Classic.

Ruler On Ice, Ice Box, Rattlesnake Bridge and Headache are all long shots, each listed at 30-1 in the morning line. The handicapping paradox however, is that these four represent the only closers in this year’s Classic. Five of the seven Breeders’ Cup Classic winners at Churchill Downs have come from well off the pace including last year’s winner Blame. Closers are also known to have done well in the Kentucky Derby in recent years, giving additional credence to assumption.

It is always difficult to exclude trainer Nick Zito, but his Ice Box has been defeated by nearly 30 lengths in his last two races. History shows that horses need to come into the Classic off of a much better efforts than that. No horse has won the Classic without finishing first, second or third in their final start before the Classic. Rattlesnake Bridge, while third in the Pennsylvania Derby last out behind To Honor and Serve and Ruler On Ice, has never hit triple digit Beyer numbers which makes it difficult to imagine him hitting that big race Saturday. Headache is also speed figure challenged but he has three career wins at Churchill Downs. Ruler On Ice has the Belmont Stakes on his resume so distance should not be a challenge for him and his performance in the Pennsylvania Derby last race was strong.

Game On Dude, winner of the 10 furlong Santa Anita Handicap in March and the Goodwood at 1-1/8 miles in October, has had a difficult time putting together two consecutive good starts. He did win an Optional Claiming before winning the Santa Anita Handicap, but failed to win in the next four starts until the Goodwood. A close second in the Hollywood Gold Cup and a fourth in the Pacific Classic were among those losses, but he looks to need to take a step up from even his career best to win Saturday.

Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve were both on the road to the Kentucky Derby earlier this year but only Stay Thirsty made it. Unfortunately, he finished 12th. In fact, Stay Thirsty has had two starts at Churchill, neither with much success with a fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year under the twin spires. Stay Thirsty skipped the Preakness, returned in the Belmont to finish second to Ruler on Ice and eventually became the star 3-year-old of the summer. After two big wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers, he was a solid third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup behind Classic foes Flat Out and Drosselmeyer.
To Honor and Serve also comes into the Classic on a two-race winning streak, taking the Pennsylvania Derby in his last race winning at optional claiming race against older horses at Saratoga before that.

However, neither Stay Thirsty nor To Honor and Serve look quite exceptional enough to win the Classic as 3-year-olds.

The three older horses that will be getting plenty of support will be European invader So You Think (NZ); and Flat Out and Drosselmeyer, the top two finishers in the Jockey Club Gold Cup respectively. Euros, Asians have had little success in the Classic, save for Raven’s Pass winning over Santa Anita’s artificial surface in 2008.

That leaves Flat Out and Drosselmeyer, two older horses that have been turning heads during morning training hours. Not so much that they have been blazing bullet works back and forth, but reports are that both are training with ease and aggressiveness. Flat Out and trainer Charles “Scooter” Dickey provide a good story, but its performance that attracts wagers and Flat Out has shown no indication that the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a peak performance.

Flat Out looks to be sharper than Drosselmeyer coming into the Classic, but Drosselmeyer has the flexibility to lay further off the pace and make that big run that can be so important down the long stretch at Churchill Downs. Somebody is going to have to catch Uncle Mo and these two are set to launch a two-pronged attack.

At the wire in the Classic, Flat Out will have the edge over Drosselmeyer with Uncle Mo in third. The long shot with the best chance after Drosselmey is Ruler On Ice.


That leaves, So You Think (NZ), the second choice in the morning line at 5-1, Flat Out (6-1), Game on Dude (10-1), Stay Thirsty and To Honor and Serve both at 12-1 and Drosselmeyer at 15-1, still left for Classic consideration.

As I said before, there’s money to be made in the Breeders’ Cup Classic this year.

Deep Ladies Classic Division Can Withstand Defections, Retirements and Injuries

At one time this year - as recent as early October – the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic had the potential to be one for ages. The $2 million feature race on ESPN’s Friday night, Nov. 4 telecast, was to feature Havre de Grace and Blink Luck, two 4-year-old fillies that have produced one of the best rivalries of our generation over the last two years. During the 16 months, Havre de Grace and Blind Luck have met six times, in which five they finished first and second. Blind Luck has the edge on wins 3-2. )The only race neither filly won in which they both ran, Blind Luck was second and Havre de Grace was third in last year’s Ladies Classic behind winner Unrivaled Belle.

Blind Luck is headed to Kentucky in November, but she will be traveling to Lexington for the Keeneland November Sale Nov. 7-17 to be sold at public auction. Havre de Grace arrived at Churchill Downs Monday for the Breeders’ Cup, but she is being pointed toward the $5 million Classic against males Saturday, Nov. 5.

Okay then. Regroup. The Ladies Classic fans should be used to important defections after Zenyatta ran in the previous two Classics instead of the Ladies Classics won by Life is Sweet in 2009 and Unrivaled Belle.

Then more bad news when trainer John Sadler announced that Zazu, (who is a bit of a Zenyatta impersonator with the same green and teal Moss colors and come from out of the clouds running style), but a grade 1 winner of the Lady’s Secret Stakes in her own right, will miss this year’s Ladies Classic because of inflamation in a shoulder. Telling Daily Racing Form’s David Grening, “"We're going to bypass the Ladies' Classic," Sadler said. "She came out of her work a little off. We put her in the nuclear scan, and it revealed a little inflammation. The timing is lousy, but the prognosis for next year is 100 percent."

As a racing fan, I’ll take that trade. Zazu could easily develop into one of next year’s distaff stars, depending on what owners Fox Hill Farm decide to do with Havre de Grace in 2012 of course.

Even after all the defections, however, this Ladies Classic will still have some star power.

Juddmonte Spinster Stakes (gr. 1) winner Aruna is trained by 2011 Kentucky Derby winning trainer Graham Motion and is starting to attract some attention. Although the Ladies Classic would be the first race on natural dirt for Aruna, the Spinster was her first start on polytrack after career on turf. Motion had entered Aruna in the Spinster after scratching the Mr. Greely filly from the Flower Bowl Handicap (gr. 1) on the Belmont Park turf because of weather.

Since the Spinster is also a Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic “Win and You’re In” race, Motion has said he is considering the Ladies Classic for Aruna. As Frank Angst pointed out in his Oct. 11 analysis of the Ladies Classic for Thoroughbred Times, “Much like Motion’s Derby winner Animal Kingdom, Aruna would be making her first career dirt start at Churchill Downs if she enters the Ladies Classic.”

More seasoned on dirt is Ultra Bend, who was second to Zazu in the Lady’s Secret and stakes winner of two races over synthetic tracks taking the Clement Hirsch at Del Mar and the Milady (gr. 2) at Hollywood Park. In 23 career starts, Ultra Bend has been first, second or third 21 times.

At ages four and five respectively, Aruna and Ultra Bend will also have an age advantage over three of the other popular contenders in the Ladies Classic.

No match for Havre de Grace in the Oct. 1 Beldame Stakes (gr. 1) at Belmont, second-place finisher Royal Delta now comes into the Ladies Classic among the favorites. Among the 3-year-old fillies in the Classic, Royal Delta comes into the Ladies Classic as the winner of this year’s Alabama Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga and grade 2 Black Eyed Susan in May. Royal Delta is trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott (photo above), who will be attempting to win his fourth Ladies Classic after previously winning the race with Ajina, 1997; Escena, 1998 and Unrivaled Belle.

It’s Tricky was the other 3-year-old filly star at Saratoga this summer, taking the Coaching Club American Oaks (gr. 1) in July over Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty in second and Royal Delta in third. Later in the Saratoga meeting, It’s Tricky was second to Royal Delta in the Alabama. Trained by Kiaran McGlothlin, It’s Tricky was also second to Plum Pretty in the Oct. 1 in the Cotillion (gr. 2) at Parx Racing near Philadelphia, Pa., in their last race.

Plum Pretty, also fourth in the Alabama, did not have such a great summer at Saratoga, but she is also headed to the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic and will again be saddled by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. Winning the Kentucky Oaks over the Churchill Downs surface in May at the 1-1/8 mile distance will also work in the Medaglia d’Oro filly’s favor.

Between Royal Delta, It’s Tricky and Plum Pretty, they have a decent rivalry going amongst them. All three ran in the Coaching Club American Oaks and Alabama; and Plum Pretty and It’s Tricky faced each other again in the Cottillion. Between them, they have 11 starts against one another.

Like Blind Luck and Havre de Grace last year, however, the 3-year-olds are still racing against older fillies and mares, the most accomplished of which is Aruna - who just happens to be trained by 3-time Ladies Classic winner Mott. The other mare is the ultra-consistent Ultra Bend.

The gap left by Havre de Grace and Blink Luck has not yet been filled and quite frankly is not expected to be. But the Ladies Classic is far from empty. In fact, the Ladies Classic may have as many as ten fillies and mare pre-enter on Monday (including Havre de Grace.) Last year’s champion 2-year-old filly Awesome Feather and Spinster second Pachattack may also be among them.

So by the time the Ladies Classic concludes ladys’ day at the Breeders’ Cup on Nov. 4, there should be enough stars to enlighten the gap getting much more narrow.

To Honor And Win Pennsylvania Derby

Parx Racing figures to be punching some of the final tickets Saturday for a trip to Churchill Downs in for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic to be run Nov. 5. While older horses will have their chances to prepare for the Classic in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont Park and the Goodward at Santa Anita, two grade 1 races to be run Oct. 2, the Pennsylvania Derby allows three-year olds an opportunity to prepare for the big race against contenders their own age.

Some of the nine Pennsylvania Derby contenders may not have the Breeders’ Cup Classic in their plans if the win Saturday, but with Horse of the Year candidate Tizway missing the Jockey Club Gold Cup and division leadership currently belonging to single grade 1 winner Stay Thirsty, it would be difficult to pass up the opportunity.

Although the Penn Derby has an impressive list of winners going back to Smarten taking the inaugural version of the race in 1979, the race has little success at producing Breeders’ Cup winners. The lack of association with the Breeders’ Cup is not so much because of quality, but rather chronology. The first eleven Penn Derbies were run on Memorial Day and the first five were run before the first Breeders’ Cup in 1984. Then from 1990 through 2009, the Pennsylvania Derby was run on Labor Day.

The race favorite this year is Ruler on Ice at 5-2 in the morning line. The Kelly Breen trainee is looking to become only the second Belmont Stakes winner to also take the Pennsylvania Derby, following Summing in 1981. Since his score in the third leg of the Triple Crown, Ruler On Ice is winless in two tries, finishing third behind winner Coit in the Haskell Inviational (gr. 1) and fourth, just four lengths behind winner Stay Thirsty in the Travers (gr. 1) Aug. 27. Breaking from the inside post, jockey Garret Gomez should have little trouble placing the son of Roman Ruler just behind the speed of the race and find a position from which to pounce turning for home.

Some of the speed may come from To Honor and Serve, once thought to be a Kentucky Derby contender before a strained suspensory ligament in the colt’s left front forced him to miss the Triple Crown. Trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, To Honor and Serve has started twice since his comeback, a lackluster sixth-place finish in the Amsterdam Stakes (gr. 2) and winning an optional claiming, both at Saratoga in August.

Breaking from post position seven, jockey Jose Lezcano should have little trouble placing To Honor and Serve just to the outside of Rush Now, who figures to be on the lead immediately from post position five. Not sure if the problem is the jockeys or To Honor and Serve, but Lezcano will be the fifth different rider in as many races for the son of Bernardini.
Rush Now with number eight JW Blue are also entered in the grade 3 Kent Stakes at Delaware Park and number three Pender Harbor is cross entered in the ungraded Ontario Stakes at Woodbine.

Rush Now is the 4-to-1 third choice in the Ontario and 9-to-2 fourth choice in Pennsylvania. Second to Prayer For Relief in the West Virginia Derby Aug. 6, Rush Now also won the $81,000 Spend A Buck Stakes at Monmouth and a $40,000 claiming race at Laurel in February.

Expected to be a bit further back early but close to if not the leader at the wire is Rattlesnake Bridge breaking from the far outside. Trained by Kiaran McLaughlin the son of Tapit was four-wide in the first turn of the Travers and drifted out in the streatch as well. However, the grey Rattlesnake Bridge was still able to get up for second, just ahead of fellow Penn Derby foe JW Blue.

Brock Talk Penn Picks
To Honor and Serve has an abundance of talent over this field and could win very easily. He should have no problem sitting behind Rush Now; or taking the lead himself should the later go to Delaware.

Ruler On Ice looks to be a very beatable favorite here and it’s doubtful third choice Rush Now will get the easy lead he may need. Ruler On Ice has not looked sharp since winning the Belmont and Rush Now could also go to Delaware.

That leaves some room for some price horses to put along with To Honor and Serve in what ever exotic you may enjoy.

JW Blue finished just two lengths behind Stay Thirsty in the Travers Aug. 27 and if not for bad racing luck, may have more of a race of it. Another from the Anthony Dutrow stable, JW Blue broke slow in the Travers and was then caught five wide turning for home. He hasn’t won since an allowance victory at Oaklawn Park in January, but has only been worse than third twice in six starts, all against stakes horses.

At 12-to-1, Norman Asbjornson won his last race, (an optional claiming at Parx), by nearly five lengths. That means he likes the track at the very least and he has some back class to go with it. In March he was second to now divisional leader Stay Thirsty in Gotham (gr. 2) and a decent fourth in the grade 1 Wood Memorial a race later. He skipped the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), then had a very rough trip and finished 11th in the Preakness.

7-8-4

Florida Derby Confirms, Changes and Provides Hope For Kentucky Plans

Like ugly pitchers and pretty quarterbacks, everybody loves a late running thoroughbred and an emotional Nick Zito. Who can forget the raspy sounding Zito thanking God and everybody within reach after Strike the Gold won the 1991 Kentucky Derby. Well Dialed In gave horse racing both again Sunday afternoon at Gulfstream Park when he won the grade 1 Florida Derby narrowly over a stubborn Shackleford in second.

“This particular horse [Dialed In], I’ve become attached to," Zito said Monday at his barn at Palm Meadows Training Center. "I’ve had a lot of great horses, but with this particular horse there’s something about him, the horse’s courage, the way he is. More importantly, you’re not supposed to do what he’s done in his young career,“ Zito continued. “It’s almost impossible to do the things he’s done. You get emotional. He defies a speed favoring track – he defies it.”

Zito said Monday that he would not be shipping Dialed In to Kentucky anytime soon and would instead remain at the Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida for at least a few more weeks. But there is not doubt they are headed to Kentucky where Zito will be trying to win his third Run for the Roses. Zito won the Kentucky Derby in 1991 with Strike the Gold and again in 1994 with Go For Gin.

Shackleford, the Florida Derby runner-up at odds of 68-1, will be leaving for Kentucky a little sooner according to his trainer Dale Romans. The question for Shackleford will be whether his $212,000 will be enough graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Derby. Shackleford added the $200,000 second-place Florida Derby check to his previous $12,000 earned while finishing fifth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) won by Soldat Feb. 26.

“We’ll see how everything shakes down and if the $212,000 will be good enough to get in,” Roman’s said Monday. “We won’t run him again. He’ll be pointed to the Derby and if doesn’t get in, we’ll give the Preakness a try.” Shackleford is currently ranked 20th on the list of graded stakes earnings by Kentucky Derby contenders. While that will be the final spot available to enter on May 4 for the Derby three days later, there are plenty of very rich graded stakes between now and the Kentucky Derby and that day. On the positive side for Shackleford, there are several horses ranked above the son of Forrestry that are questionable for the Kentucky Derby. The owners of Comma To The Top, currently sixth on the money list, have said the Kentucky Derby is not in their plans for the colt. Also ranked above Shackleford are three horses that finished well behind him in the Florida Derby.

Florida Derby favorite Soldat is ranked fifth on the list with $540,000 in graded earnings but was fifth in the Florida Derby, beaten more than 10 lengths by Dialed In. Florida Derby third-place finisher To Honor and Serve is ranked tenth with $350,000; and Stay Thirsty, seventh in the Florida Derby, has the 15th highest graded stakes earnings with $260,000.

“My gut tells me, ‘yeah, go on to the Kentucky Derby’” Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of Soldat, said Monday. “You’ve got the earnings and [the Florida Derby was the] first race he wasn’t first or second. But I’ll have to talk to all the owners.” McLaughlin also said the 3-year-old son of War Front came out of the Florida Derby with no concerns.

Unlike Soldat, To Honor and Serve has not had a good race this year. In his only two races as a 3-year-old, To Honor and Serve has finished third, more than 6-1/2 lengths behind the winner, in both the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth. Last year To Honor and Serve won the grade 2 Remsen Stakes at 1-1/8 miles over Mucho Macho Man but has yet to match that race as a sophomore. Bill Mott, his Hall of Fame trainer is also not one to be smitten over having a Kentucky Derby starter. In a training career that spans some 40 years, Mott has had only seven Kentucky Derby starters with Hold Me Back, 12th in 2009, as his most successful starter.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has not indicated as to whether Stay Thirsty will be heading to Kentucky for the Derby, but the odds are that he and owner Mike Repole will be looking elsewhere. Stay Thirsty was never a factor while finishing a well beaten sixth in the Florida Derby. Pletcher also trains Derby future book favorite Uncle Mo for Repole, so it not likely they will need Stay Thirsty to get to Churchill Downs for the Derby.

Whether To Honor and Serve, Soldat or Stay Thirsty head to Kentucky or not, one can be assured the list will change many times during the next four weeks leading up to the Derby. Millions of graded earnings have yet to be given away in New York, California, Illinois, Kentucky and Arkansas, so new names on the list of probable Kentucky Derby are likely to appear. Just as names fall of that list for various reasons as well.

Safe be it to say that the connections behind Shackleford will watch their colt fall of and return to the Derby list a few times in the next four weeks.

Deep Florida Derby Has Trainers In The Know

There is no question the Florida Derby (gr. 1) Sunday at Gulfstream Park is the deepest prep race for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands so far this year. And Sandra Bullock is more popular than Jesse James. The race has two horses that are ranked in the top five of most Derby watch lists this Spring, two other top ten candidates and four new comers to the Triple Crown trail including a monkey wrench. The eventual winner is the mystery.

The favorite is Soldat, a good looking son of War Front who won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 26. Although War Front was a sprinter and Soldat’s grandsire, Rubiano, was a champion sprinter, Soldat has had little trouble winning his two previous starts this year, both at the Florida Derby distance of 1-1/8 miles. Befor the Fountain of Youth, Soldat also won a 9 furlong allowance race in February by more than 10-1/2 lengths.

Soldat has used his speedy genetics to win both races from gate to wire, making one think jockey Alan Garcia might employ the same tactics in the Florida Derby. However, trainer Kiaran McLaughlin (photo right) calls the game plan and it is doubtful he wants Soldat to race to the front Sunday. “He does everything right,” McLaughlin said on Televison Games Network. “The only thing I’d like to change is for him to get some dirt in his face. Whether it be in the Florida Derby or in the morning, we might do both. But on the first Saturday in May, you don’t want to be on the lead.”

Soldat has already fulfilled his morning “dirt in the face” requirement, beginning his Mar. 20 five furlong work behind two runners from the McLaughlin stable before accelerating around them to complete the assigned task. The grimy trip didn’t seem to bother Soldat much as he recorded a bullet work in 1:00 3/5, the fastest of 29 five-eighths of a mile works at Palm Meadows that morning. Odds are that McLaughlin wants to fulfill the other “dirt in the face” requirement Sunday.

Regardless of McLaughlin’s strategy, trainer Rick Dutrow looks to have his sights on the early lead in the Florida Derby with his late entrant Flashpoint. Like Soldat, Flashpoint is by a young sire who was successful on the track as a sprinter. His sire Pomeroy won the King’s Bishop and Kelso Handicap, both grade 1 races at seven furlongs in New York. Unlike Soldat, however, Flashpoint has never been further than the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes, a grade 2 race on Feb. 26 he won by seven and a half lengths.

Flashpoint breaks from the outside post in the eight-horse field, but he figures to the first leader in the Florida Derby and perhaps putting McLaughlin at some ease for the moment. Should Soldat also want the lead as his past performances may indicate, that would be the wrench du monkey previously mentioned.

A trainer that will be rooting for Soldat and Flashpoint to battle each early, is two-time Kentucky Derby winning condition Nick Zito, who saddles 2-1 second choice Dialed In. Considered among the future book favorites to win in Kentucky, the son of 2003 Horse of the Year Mineshaft is a classic late closer. He broke his maiden at Churchill Downs coming from last in a 12-horse field and then won the one mile Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) Jan. 30 at Gulfstream Park coming from last, ten lengths off the lead.

Scheduling challenges and a need to expand out to nine furlongs, forced Zito to run Dialed In against older horses in a Mar. 6 optional claiming. A slow pace in that race also presented a challenge for the young closer and jockey Julien Laparoux, but they rallied to finish second to remain on the Kentucky Derby trail.

Having some difficulty staying on the Derby track is To Honor and Serve who finished a tired looking third behind Soldat In the Fountain of Youth. Coming from the barn of Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott (photo left) somewhat eases those concerns for To Honor and Serve fans, but that does not reduce the necessity of a much improved performance in the Florida Derby in order to stay the Kentucky course.

If the Derby path had somehow narrowed to a straight line down the stretch of Aqueduct’s inner track on March 5, it is uncertain if Stay Thirsty would still be aboard. But the Derby path didn’t constrict and Stay Thirsty remains pointed toward Kentucky.

Although Stay Thirsty won the grade 3 Gotham Stakes that day, he looked less than professional in doing so. That day he broke poorly but jockey Ramon Dominguez was able to eventuall place him into contention. Turning for home, Stay Thirsty veered in without impeding another horse before then changing leads a few times. But his talent endurred and Stay Thirsty drew off to win the Gotham by just over three lengths.

It was the first start of the year for Stay Thirsty, so trainer Todd Pletcher looked at the Gotham with a glass half full attitude - seeing the room for improvement in his young son of Bernadini. He will put blinkers on Stay Thirsty in the Florida Derby to help him focus and seems confident he’ll see a smarter Stay Thirsty this time.

Rounding out the Florida Derby are Arch Traveler, Bowman’s Causeway and Shackleford, all at 20-1 and none of which are stakes winners.

There have been eleven Kentucky Derby winners who ran in the Florida Derby without winning. The most recent of those was Monarchos who took the 2001 Run for the Roses after finishing second in Florida. Before that, both Thunder Gulch (1995) and Go For Gin (’94) won Kentucky Derbies after finishing fourth in their respective Florida Derbies.

Pletcher, McLaughlin, Mott, Pletcher and Zito probably know of a few of those horses. Zito does. He trained Go For Gin. The four trainers also know their horses likely have enough graded earnings to qualify for the big prize at Churchill. And despite the $1 million purse in Florida, the riches and prestige of the Kentucky have no rival in North American horse racing – perhaps even the world.

So a loss Sunday does not present any type of third strike or punch off the proverbial trail to the Kentucky Derby. But the talent in this field in abundant and wide spread – even hidden, perhaps, in one of the three long shots. The light prep races disappeared with the days of February and March and time is eroding the options for change as the first Saturday in May nears.

Still the Florida Derby is not life or death. But a bad race by any of the promising contenders will surely cause less than comfortable illness for the previously hopeful connections. You can bet the four trainers know that too.

Derby Notice Served

Just as everyone became comfortable with Breeders’ Cup top two finishers Uncle Mo and Boys of Toscanova being the standouts from this 2-year-old crop, To Honor and Serve wins the grade 2 Remsen Stakes and is at least making room for himself on the Derby trail. While To Honor and Serves' the two-length margin of victory over runner-up Mucho Macho Man in the grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct Saturday may not have been eye-popping, the ease at which the son of Bernardini raced wire-to-wire and the 1:50.3 time has turned some heads. It was the fastest time for the 1-1/8 mile Remsen since Java Gold’s 1:49.60 in 1986 and was more than 2.80 seconds faster than Dixie City's grade 2 Demoiselle Stakes win a race earlier. Believe It set the Remsen Stakes record in 1977 with his time of 1:47.80.

There is also the tradition of the Remsen as a producer of Derby winners and runners among the top of the sophomore class. Although it has been since Go For Gin in 1994 and Thunder Gulch in 1995 since a Remsen winner also took the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands, Remsen winners also include 1992 Preakness (gr. 1) winner Pine Bluff, 2006 Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) winner Bluegrass Cat and 2007 Wood Memorial (gr. 1) winner Nobiz Like Shobiz more recently. Kentucky Derby winners Pleasant Colony (1980), Northern Dancer (1964), Carry Back (1960) and Johnstown (1938) also won the Remsen Stakes as 2-year-olds.

Trainer Bill Mott said after the Remsen that To Honor and Serve will be pointing toward the first Saturday in May at Churchill Downs and will soon travel to the Hall of Fame trainer’s barn at the Palm Meadows training center in Florida for a Winter base.

Along with his victory in the grade 3 Nashua at Aqueduct, it is likely To Honor and Serve will be weighted within 10 pounds of the top weighted 2-year-old male in the 2010 Experimental Free Handicap, with the likely high weight being assigned to Uncle Mo. To Honor and Serve has a nice low dosage index of 2.38, so he is likely going to be a dual qualifier for those that take note of such things.

To Honor and Serve is regally bred, by young sire Bernardini, currently the second leading freshman sire in the country with more than $1.2 million in progeny earnings. Bernardini is by sire of sires A.P. Indy and as a runner, became the first horse since Damascus in 1967 to win the Preakness, Travers (gr. 1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) in the same year before finishing second to Invasor in the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

To Honor and Serve is equally classy on the bottom side of the pedigree with both first dam Pilfer, by Deputy Minister; and Misty Hour, by Miswaki, stakes winners. He also has plenty of Buckpasser, Northern Dancer and Mr. Prospector throughout both the top and bottom lines of his family so distance does not appear to be a genetic challenge for To Honor and Serve. He has had promise from a very young age apparently as he sold for $250,000 at the 2008 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale and then $575,000 as a Keeneland September yearling.

Be cautious that it remains very early to be touting the 2011 Kentucky Derby winner. After all, the 2010 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park remains as the final grade 1 race for 2-year-olds open to colts and geldings on the calendar.

But To Honor and Serve has certainly stepped up on the medal stands among his divisional leaders and looks to be the contenders when the Triple Crown trail resumes early next year.