Horse of the Year Defense Starts Early for Havre de Grace

It will be very easy to cheer for 2011 Horse of the Year Havre de Grace (photo right) this year. After all, owner Rick Porter and trainer Larry Jones are the popular sort with fans who are beginning to especially appreciate those keeping their equine stars around the track a bit longer. For that reason alone, there will be just a few more cheering on those red and white silks of Fox Hill Farms worn by jockey Gabriel Saez aboard Havre de Grace in 2012.

Havre de Grace may also pick up some fans from her rival, the recently retired Blind Luck. Why would a fan begrudge Blind Luck for retiring earlier than Havre de Grace? No matter the reason for her retirement, Blind Luck was an equine version of Winston Wolfe. She was the sort who would take the call, write down the address and then travel anywhere, anytime and take care of business.

One may also assume any further accolades accomplished by Havre de Grace on the track, really just add to the racing legacy of Blind Luck. Point being, Havre de Grace should have plenty of fans this year. But from the looks of things early this year, while training well at Oaklawn Park, Havre de will not have a monopoly on popularity among racing fans.

The Florida Sunshine Millions gave affirmation to fans of Mucho Macho Man as he won the $400,000 Sunshine Millions Classic and Awesome Feather, winner of the $300,000 Sunshine Millions Distaff.

Mucho Macho Man continues his wave of acclaim that started during his 3-year-old old season. The Kathy Ritvo-trainee joined only Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness (gr. 1) winner Shackleford as the only three horses to start in every Triple Crown race last year. The Florida-bred son of Macho Uno was third in the Derby but disappointed with off-the-board finishes in the Preakness and Belmont.

Mucho Macho Man was given a break after the Belmont but returned with vigor easily winning an allowance race at Aqueduct in November before making his 2012 debut in the Sunshine Millions Classic.

Awesome Feather also returned to the races in New York last Fall after tendon injuries sidelined her for most of her sophomore year. After an undefeated and championship season as a 2-year-old, Awesome Feather came back from her lay-off last year and won the Le Slew Stakes at Belmont in October and the Gazelle Stakes (gr. 1) at Aqueduct in November. Although many of her wins have come against fellow Florida-breds, Awesome Feather has had little trouble when stepping up to open, grade I races. And as long as she keeps that race record unblemished, her fame will continue to grow along with the streak.

Few horses in North America carry the esteem of a Kentucky Derby winner, and it seems all systems are go for Animal Kingdom’s return in 2012. After his sixth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) won by Ruler on Ice last year, a hairline fracture in the left hock of Animal Kingdom was discovered and ended his year. But the now 4-year-old son of Leroidesanimaux has been doing well for trainer Graham Motion who saw Animal Kingdom put in a bullet work Jan. 25 at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, going five furlongs on grass in :59 4/5.

According to reports, owner Team Valor International manager Barry Irwin says Animal Kingdom is scheduled to race again in the grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes Feb. 25. Irwin said the 1-1/16 mile race on the Tampa Bay Downs turf will act as preparation for the $10 million, group 1 Dubai World Cup Mar. 31 at Meydan Race Course in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Shackleford (photo left) is also working toward his return to the races at Palm Meadows for trainer Dale Romans who says the Donn Handicap (gr. I) at Gulfstream Park Feb. 11. Last seen finishing second to Caleb’s Posse in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs, Shackleford also had runner-up finishes last year in the Florida Derby (gr. I), Haskell Invitational (gr. I) and Indiana Derby (gr. 2). His “catch me if you can” running style also keeps Shackleford popular among his fans.

Don’t under estimate Game On Dude and his fans either. The runner-up to Drosselmeyer in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) and winner of the two Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) and Goodwood Stakes (gr. I) also has jockey Chantal Sutherland and trainer Bob Baffert on her team. Both world-class in their trades, they are equally charismatic and media savey.

And then of course there is the possibility of an ultra popular 3-year-old. It has been since Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown in 2008 when we last saw a horse go to the Belmont Stakes for a chance at the Triple Crown and since Affirmed in 1978 when had our last Triple Crown winner. Big Brown was pulled up and finished last in the Belmont Stakes, but as chronicled many times on this blog, not since Big Brown won the 2008 Monmouth Stakes have seen a Kentucky Derby champ even win a subsequent race.

Horse racing is not only due for a popular and post Kentucky Derby successful 3-year-old, but 33 years is long enough to wait for a Triple Crown winner too.

Yes Havre de Grace, unless she repeats as Horse of the Year in 2012, will probably go down in Thoroughbred history as the difficult part of the answer to a trivia question. No doubt her 2011 can not compare to Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta before her.

Looking at some of the horses that are expected to compete in for the 2012 golden Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year, things are not going to be any easier for Havre de Grace this year. After all, we now know that Jones and Porter are not afraid to take their champion mare and run against older horses at the highest of levels.

Any way one looks at it however, the race for 2012 Horse of the Year is already interesting. And we have barely started.

US Stars Have Dubai World Cup In Sights

With the recent announcement by trainer Bill Mott (photo right) that Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic winner Royal Delta will be pointed to the $10 million Dubai World Cup sponsored by Emirates Airlines, it appears the United States will again be well represented in the March 31 race. Earlier this month, trainer Graham Motion told Daily Racing Form that 2011 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands winner Animal Kingdom is also scheduled for the world’s richest horse race. The Dubai World Cup is run annually at the luxurious Meydan Race Club in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Royal Delta, purchased for $8.5 million at the Keeneland November Sale by Ben Leon’s Besilu Stables from breeder Palides Investments N. V., has been training lightly at Payson Park training Center in Florida and may make the Dubai World Cup her first start of the year. Last year as a 3-year-old, Royal Delta also won the Alabama Stakes and Black Eyed Susan Stakes in addition to her big score in the Ladies Classic. Mott will be trying for his second World Cup victory after winning the inaugural edition with Cigar in 1996.

Meanwhile, Animal Kingdom has been training more aggressively from Motion’s barn at Fair Hill Training Center in Maryland and may be headed to the Gulfstream Park Handicap on grass Feb. 11 before heading to Dubai for the World Cup. Motion also told Daily Racing Form that he has not ruled out a February turf race in Dubai either.

Two-time Dubai World Cup winning trainer Bob Baffert has also indicated that his star older horse, Game On Dude (photo left), may also make the international trip to Dubai this year. Game On Dude was last seen finishing second to Drosselmeyer in the Nov. 5 Breeders’ Cup Classic and also won the Santa Anita Handicap and Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita last year. Baffert won the 1998 Dubai World Cup with Kentucky Derby winner Silver Charm and the 2001 World Cup with Captain Steve.

Baffert told Daily Racing Form that he is planning to start Game On Dude next in the San Antonio Stakes Feb. 5 at Santa Anita and then will decide between defending his title in the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap or shipping to the Dubai World Cup after that.

The 10-furlong Dubai World Cup has been won by North American-based horses seven times. Others include Pleasantly Perfect in 2004 and Invasor, Curlin and Well Armed in 2007-09 respectively. Street Cry, winner of the 2002 World Cup, had raced in the United States at age two and three but was based in Dubai during the winter of his 4-year-old campaign and was owned by Sheikh Mohammed al Maktoum of Dubai. Sheikh Maktoum is the Vice President of the U.A.E., ruler of Dubai and owner of Meydan Race Club.

Help Needed For Large Louisiana Thoroughbred Rescue

The Louisiana Horse Rescue, Remember Me Rescue, Sabine Humane Society and the Louisiana State school of veterinary medicine are asking for your assistance in a 60-horse seizure currently underway in Many, Louisiana.

According to the Remember Me website and reports from KSLA-TV in Shreveport, La., some 25 horses have already been found dead with others assumed buried at the farm owned by Charles Ray Ford, 46, a thoroughbred owner and breeder in the Ark-La-Tex area.

Sabine Parish District Attorney Don Burkett reportedly has been to the site where some 53 broodmares and 20 yearlings were believed to be located as recent as 2010, and has indicated that felony animal cruelty charges will be levied against Ford. KSLA-TV reports also said they were told Burkett would levy a separate charge for each horse affected, whether deceased or starving. Less than half of the broodmares and only six yearlings have been found at the farm.

Horses that are healthy enough to move are being taken to New Orleans where they will be evaluated and rehabilitated. Remember Me reports on their website that the cost to care for the horses is currently $450 per day. Remember Me is a Texas-based horse rescue operation run by Donna Keen, wife of trainer Dallas Keen who races in Texas and Louisiana.

For more information and to help financially, go to the Remember Me website.

Jumbled Group of 3-Year-Olds Reaching Fast Times Levels of Confusion

There hasn’t been a class like this since Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Literally. Not since 1982, when Sean Penn’s Jeff Spicoli said “Aloha” to Ray Walston’s Mr. Hand in the California teen-culture classic movie, has there been no 3-year-old with more than one grade 1 win at 1-1/8 miles or further on the main track this late in the year.

This schedule of grade 1 races begins just before the Triple Crown with the Florida Derby six weeks before the first Saturday in May. Other grade I Derby prep races include the the Santa Anita Derby, the Arkansas Derby, the Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. The grade I schedule continues with the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, the Preakness, Belmont which make up the Triple Crown, and continues with the Resorts World Casino Haskell Invitational. There is also the grade 1 Queen’s Plate run at Woodbine in Canada in late June or early July and the Travers Stakes run in late August.

Since 1982, there have been 13 years in which the Triple Crown races were won by three different horses. In fact, in the last three years, nine different horses have won the nine Triple Crown races in that span. There were also three different winners of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont in 2006, 2000, 1996,’93, ’92, ’90, ’86, ’85, ’83 and 1982.

In ten of those 13 years, there was yet a different winner of the Haskell. So it is not uncommon for the sophomore thoroughbred male picture to be so unclear this late in the year.

What is unique about this group, is that their inability as individuals two win two grade I races on the main track around two turns goes back to the major Kentucky Derby prep races in Florida, New York, California, Kentucky and Arkansas. This year's winners of those races were Dialed In, Toby’s Corner, Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed and Arch Arch Arch respectively. Then Animal Kingdom, Shackleford and Ruler on Ice won the Derby, Preakness and Belmont as Inglorious wins the Queen’s Plate and Coil wins the Haskell.

In fact, one has to go back 20 years to match this level of inconsistency through July among our star 3-year-olds.

In 1982 Gato Del Sol won the Kentucky Derby while Aloma’s Ruler, Conquistador Cielo and Wavering Monarch won the Preakness, Belmont and Haskell respectively. Six days prior to the Belmont Stakes, Conquistador Cielo won the grade 1 Metropolitan Mile Handicap over older horses, but that was around a one turn one mile at Belmont Park.

The prep races that year were won by Muttering (Santa Anita Derby), Timely Writer (Florida Derby), Air Forbes Won (Wood Memorial) and Hostage (Arkansas Derby). Son of Briartic won the Queen’s Plate that year.

There have been some classes get close to matching the infamous mid-season mark. In 1985, Tank’s Prospect won the Preakness after winning the Arkansas Derby, but was the only sophomore colt or gelding with two grade 1 wins as of Aug. 1. Eight years later, Prairie Bayou won the 1993 Blue Grass Stakes and the Preakness to become the only male 3-year-old with two grade I wins on his resume in the first seven months of that year. But both 1985 and 1993 had interesting circumstances that may mislead to assume apparent confusion in the grade 1 ranks in those years.

Spend A Buck (photo), winner of the 1985 Derby, skipped the Preakness in pursuit of big bonus money then offered by the folks at Garden State Park. That class also included Crème Fraiche, the middle member of trainer Woody Stephens’ five-consecutive Belmont victors; and the next two Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) champions in Florida Derby winner Proud Truth and Skywalker, winner of the Santa Anita Derby. Spend A Buck was named Champion 3-year-old and Horse of the Year that year.

In the 1993 Kentucky Derby, 12-1 shot Sea Hero upset favorite Prairie Bayou, who came to the Derby off his win the Blue Grass. Prairie Bayou managed second in Kentucky, but avenged his loss by winning the Preakness in his next start. Unfortunately, Prairie Bayou broke down in the Belmont Stakes and had to be euthanized. That day Colonial Affair made jockey Julie Krone the only female jockey to win a Triple Crown and Kissin Kris would win he Haskell to keep Prairie Bayou as the only dual grade 1 winner so far that year. Early the next year, owner John Ed Anthony accepted the Eclipse Award naming Prairie Bayou as the champion 3-year-old male of 1993.

This year, nationally acclaimed trainers Todd Pletcher, Nick Zito, Bob Baffert, Bill Mott, Dale Romans, Graham Motions and Kelly Breen have tried everything except the toolbox belonging to Spicoli’s dad in an effort to return their grade I victors to more grade I winners’ circles. But none have been able to muster much consistency out of their high profile trainees of this class to do so.

The next grade I for this bunch is the Travers Stakes at Saratoga Aug. 27. After that, the natural transgression then leads to races against older horses as the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont, and the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita lead to the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in early November.

Some grade I winners from this 2011 sophomore class are sidelined temporarily with minor injuries. Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Wood Memorial winner Toby’s Corner are among them. Others such as Arch Arch Arch have met early retirement due to more serious lameness issues. But the connections behind Ruler On Ice, Coil and Shackleford have indicated they are pointing toward the mid-Summer Derby at Saratoga.

So as Spicoli might say in Fast Times "If Baffert, Breen and Pletcher don't get their stars back in form pronto, this class of 3-year-olds might be remembered as bogus too. Get it?"

Horse of the Year Race Slow After Six Months

Approaching the six-month mark in 2011 and nobody has a hint as to who might be Horse of the Year. There are plenty of possibilities with perhaps even more predictions, but at the half-way mark of this second or third year of the decade depending on how you look at it - nobody has come to the forefront in the run for the golden Eclipse Award.

Three different horses won the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) for the second consecutive year and Derby winner Animal Kingdom is now out for the year with a slab fracture. There are no stars in the older horse ranks and for the first time in North American history, there are rumblings of three consecutive female Horse of the Year titles. Zenyatta was Horse of the Year last year and Rachel Alexandra took home the golden statue in 2009.

Preakness winners in recent years at least have some bling in their trophy cases giving Shackleford fans some hope. Since Derby winner Charismatic won Horse of the Year in 1999, (he also won the Preakness that year) three Preakness winners have been honored with the golden Eclipse Award. Preakness winners Point Given (2001), Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra were all so honored without Kentucky Derby victories. The last Derby winner to garner Horse of the Year without a Preakness win was Spend A Buck in 1985.

Belmont winner Ruler on Ice also might have something going for him depending on your definition of asset. Although the Test of Champions has not produced the number of Horse of the Year winners in recent years, the three most contemporary Belmont winners to be named HOY were Point Given 10 years ago, A.P. Indy in 1992 and Conquistador Cielo 10 years before that. So if the Belmont Stakes continues its recent trend of producing a Horse of the Year every ten years or so, Ruler on Ice may be right on schedule. Which brings us back to the definition of asset.

Adding further optimism to the Shackleford and Ruler on Ice camps, Rachel Alexandra and Curlin also won only one Triple Crown race. Both won the Preakness and then showed what it takes for a 3-year-old to get Horse of the Year post Triple Crown.

Rachel Alexandra won the Mother Goose against fillies, the Haskell Invitational against colts again, and the Woodward against older horses to finish her 2009 campaign. All three of her year-end races were grade 1, at three different tracks and Rachel had zero losses on the year to boot.

Curlin wasn’t so accomplished losing the Belmont to Rags to Riches after his Preakness win. He was then third behind Any Given Sunday and Hard Spun in the Haskell. But Curlin hit his stride in his last two races defeating older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1).

Not that any of the current 3-year-old males can’t make a late season run, but Curlin and Rachel Alexandra illustrate just how high that Horse of the Year bar has been set.

As in most years, the older horse division is most likely to produce the HOY but they too have struggled to produce a favorite. Donn Handicap winner Giant Oak has lost three straight since taking the division's first grade 1 race in January and Game On Dude, upset winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. 1) in more ways than one, lost the grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap to Awesome Gem in his next start. The other grade 1 race for older horses at a mile or more, the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs, produced long shot winner Pool Play, who returned $75.20 to his supporters that day.

Perhaps the front runners for Horse of the Year as June turns to July come from the ranks of the older fillies and mares. Havre de Grace may have the slight advantage in that division as the winner of three graded races this year including the prestigious Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. 1) at Oaklawn Park. A recent winner of the grade 3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park, Havre de Grace is on target for the grade 1 Delaware Handicap July 16.

Although a slow starter this year with three consecutive seconds in graded stakes, Blind Luck (photo above) remains the longtime nemesis of Havre de Grace in a rivalry that goes back to the Delaware Oaks (gr. 2) last year won by former. Havre de Grace has the edge this year, however, defeating Blind Luck in the Azeri Stakes (gr. 3) in March at Oaklawn. Blind Luck then came back to win the grade 2 La Troinne at Churchill Downs before recently defeating an accomplished group of fillies and mares in the grade I Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park.

Meanwhile, Awesome Maria has gone undefeated in four races this year including winning the grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park. Trainer Todd Pletcher has indicated that the grade I Ruffian at Saratoga may be the next start for Awesome Maria who was among the top 2-year-old fillies on the East coast last year.

Should a female win the Horse of the Year again this year after Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and Zenyatta last year, it will be the first time in the history of North American thoroughbred racing that females will have been named Horse of the Year in three consecutive years. Since the Horse of the Year was established in 1887, Twilight Tear and Busher in 1944-’45 respectively, were the only other females to win Horse of the Year in consecutive years, so the odds seem a little stacked against the ladies. There may not be another Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta in this group of older fillies and mares, but they do bring enough name recognition and industry credentials to be respected.

Perhaps todays male have some respect, but none of the colts, horses and geldings racing today have quite yet obtained the credentials of some of their female counterparts. This may not quite be Tea Leoni and David Duchonvy splitting up, but it is soon time for all to step up make some Horse of the Year waves.

Championship Path Can Skip Triple Crown Wins

With the less than star power talent of the thoroughbred colts and geldings class of 2011, it seems the times are ripe for perhaps a late season run by a non-winner of a Triple Crown race for year-end championship honors.

Three horses have been named the champion 3-year-old male in the last 30 years without winning the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1), Preakness (gr. 1) or Belmont Stakes (gr. 1). Tiznow was the most recent to take home the divisional eclipse award after going 0-for-triple crown in 2000 while Skip Away (photo left) in 1996 and Holy Bull two years earlier, also share the distinction.

Holy Bull was one of the early stars of the 1994 class chasing after the Kentucky Derby after going undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old including a victory in the grade 1 Futurity. The big grey colt started 1994 just as hot, winning the grade 2 Hutchinson Stakes at Gulfstream Park keeping his record unblemished. The son of Great Above then had his first bad race in the Fountain of Youth, tiring badly to finish sixth, more than 24 lengths behind winner Dehere. But trainer Warren Croll bounced right back with Holy Bull, and won both the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Blue Grass (gr. 2) Stakes as they headed to Kentucky with jockey Mike Smith as the favorite.

But Holy Bull broke slow in the Kentucky Derby and he was never able to completely recover, finishing a well beaten twelfth behind Go For Gin. Croll then decided to rest Holy Bull and skipped they both the Preakness and Belmont.

But Holy Bull came back stronger than ever, winning the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. 1), Dwyer Stakes (gr. 2), Haskell Invitational (gr. 1), Travers (gr. 1) and Woodward (gr. 1) to end the year with a five-race winning streak and eight wins in ten starts. He also accumulated more than $2 million in earnings that year and was also named Horse of the Year for 1994.

Tiznow and Skip Away both started their championship years much more inconspicuously than Holy Bull. It took Tiznow three races to break his maiden as a 3-year-old in Southern California and Skip Away bled and was distanced in his first race as sophomore at Gulfstream Park.

Also unlike Holy Bull, Skip Away started in all three Triple Crown events after finishing third in the Florida Derby and winning the Blue Grass that year. He would go winless in the three races, however, finishing 12th in the Derby and second to both Louis Quartorze in the Preakness and Editor’s Note in the Belmont.

There would be no rest for Skip Away though, as he went to win the Ohio Derby (gr. 2) three weeks later before winning the Haskell Invitational and finishing third in the Travers behind Will's Way and Louis Quartorze. The son of Skip Trial then finished the year winning the Woodbine Million (gr. 1) and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) over the great Cigar.

After breaking his maiden at Hollywood Park May 31, it was already post Kentucky Derby and Preakness for Tiznow in 2000. But he would win the grade 2 Affirmed in his next race before a string of seconds against grade 1 company hit him in the Swaps and Pacific Classic against older horses. But Tiznow was not deterred and kept on rolling while winning the Super Derby (gr. 1) at Louisiana Downs and the Goodwood Handicap (gr. 1) back in Southern California. Trainer Jay Robbins put the son of Cee's Tizzy back on a plane and he soon at Churchill Downs defeating Giant’s Causeway to win his first Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) (photo right). Like Holy Bull in 1994, Tiznow concluded his year with the Championship 3-Year-Old Male trophy but the golden Horse of the Year Ecplise as well.

There are candidates for such a run in 2011 with Mucho Macho Man among the possibilities. Celebrating his real birthday (official birthday for thoroughbreds is Jan. 1) just this month, he is likely to continue to grow into his large frame and may excel on the track at the same time. He is the only non-winner of any of the Triple Crown races to start in all three this year finishing third in the Derby, sixth in the Preakness and seventh in the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont second and third-place finishers Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed respectively should be late season contenders with their late running styles that may have compromised them in the Belmont. Santiva, eighth in the Belmont Stakes, may be another late bloomer who will benefit running in races at much more conventional distances than the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes.

There are some other possibilities for some earlier stars to return to racing after not making the Triple Crown. Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor and pre-Derby favorite Uncle Mo are considered likely to return. The Factor has been recovering from minor throat surgery and may start in the Aug. 27 King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga while Uncle Mo continues to recover from a liver ailment that forced to be withdrawn from the Derby at the last hour. There may be another Tiznow out there as well that remains virtually anonymous for the first six months before exploding to success in the later part of 2011. One-time Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) favorite Jaycito may not be so under the radar, but certainly has the potential for late season success.

There are certainly plenty of big races left on the racing calendar dispite with the less informed racing fan might think. The Jim Dandy (gr. 2) and Travers are the big races for 3-year-olds at Saratoga and the Haskell Invitational likewise at Monmouth Park. There will be plenty of opportunities for sophomores to take on their older brethren in the Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup in the East and the Hollywood Gold Cup, Pacific Classic and Goodwood on the West Coast to name but a few.

There is no doubt that Derby winner Animal Kingdom, Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont champion Ruler On Ice all have a jump on the field in pursuing the Eclipse Award over all other 3-year-old colts and geldings. But they will likely have to win more than their respective Triple Crown jewels to remain in the race for the championship.

Class of 2011 Still Has Chances To Thrill Fans

So there is not a Triple Crown winner. We knew that three weeks ago. Nope. No rivalry between Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness Stakes (gr. I) champion Shackleford either. And another long shot (Ruler On Ice) wins a grade 1 race for 3-year-old colts (The Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in 2011. And I am less wealthy because I didn’t listen to Captain Obvious on that last one.

But our three champions coming out of the Triple Crown races, each have plenty of which to be attracted.

It was refreshing to read on the Daily Racing Form site this morning that Animal Kingdom managing partner Barry Irwin is backing off of his plans to run the Derby winner on grass to prepare for a possible start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs. Before the Belmont, Irwin told NBC’s Bob Costas that Animal Kingdom was headed for the Secretariat Stakes for 3-year-olds or against older horses in the Arlington Million, both grade I races on grass at Arlington Park near Chicago this summer. But Team Valor president Irwin has since told the Form’s Jay Privman that the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) at Monmouth Park and the Travers Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga are two $1 million races now under consideration.

What horse racing might need more than the staying power of its stars this year, is a victory by Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom. Since Big Brown won the 2008 Monmouth Stakes in final race of his career, Kentucky Derby winners have gone 0-13. Animal Kingdom is now winless since his big win at Churchill Downs, finishing second in the Preakness and sixth in the Belmont after a disastrous start. Super Saver, winner of the 2010 Derby, was winless in the Preakness and Haskell Invitational before he was retired last year and 2009 Derby Champion Mine That Bird was 0-9 before he was prematurely retired.

Preakness winners have a propensity for post Triple Crown success the last few years with 12 of the last 14 winners of the second jewel taking home post season honors as the champion 3-year-old male. The only Preakness winners not to garner that award since 1997were Rachel Alexandra, a filly who was named Horse of the Year following her 2009 Preakness win; and 2000 winner Red Bullet.

Shackleford, this year’s Preakness winner, has built in popularity with his front-running style and coming from the barn of Dale Romans, which has been in vouque rightly so the last few years.

As for Belmont Stakes (gr. I) winner Ruler On Ice maintaining his popularity, his reproductive status dictates that he will likely stay on the track for awhile. The gelding trained by Kelly Breen and owned by George and Lori Hall has nothing to send him to retirement other than injury.

Not thinking Ruler On Ice can reach the popularity of champion geldings such as Kelso or Forego, but he is sure to benefit from better management than Mine That Bird, who quite frankly, should still be running with success.

Regardless of their popularity before and during the recently concluded Triple Crown races, this much maligned class of 3-year-olds still has plenty to offer racing fans. So far they have not been the fastest class of colts and geldings, but they have been relatively sound and if nothing, surprising for those of us who have wagered on this bunch.

Standing By My Man

There is perhaps one basic question regarding the 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. Even though there is no Triple Crown winner to be crowned in the third jewel of the classic American series, the 1-1/2 mile Test of Champions has plenty of opportunity for definition in 2011. But will this crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds have a stand out - a divisional leader - Saturday evening.

Animal Kingdom, winner of the grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands but second in the Preakness to Shackleford, has perhaps the best chance at separating himself from his piers. He was a convincing winner at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May and came back to run a strong second to Shackleford in the Preakness. The son of Brazilian-bred sire Leroidesanimaux is also the only Belmont starter other than Shackleford with two wins this year. Animal Kingdom also won the Vinary Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) in March while Shackleford also won an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in early February.

Animal Kingdom has been given the respect as the 5-2 morning line favorite while Shackleford has been taken down a notch to 9-2 as the third choice behind Derby runner-up Nehro at 4-1 in the morning line. The thinking behind that might be that Shackleford had difficulty holding the lead In the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby which raises questions about him going a quarter-mile further. Nehro also skipped the Preakness after the Kentucky Derby, so he arrives in New York with some needed time off that Shackleford of which Shackleford and Animal Kingdom have not enjoyed.

Wednesday morning, one might have thought Shackleford would have a relatively easy time getting to the lead and setting a comfortable pace as he did in the Derby. However, the post position draw changed that assumption when the speedy son of Forestry drew the far outside 12 hole. Jockey Jesus Castanon will have plenty of time to negotiate where he wants to be with Shackleford going into the second turn of the vast sweeping Belmont main track, but both Prime Cut and Isn’t He Perfect have the inside track to the relatively short run to the first turn at the Big Sandy. Yes, Shackleford can rate as he did in winning the Preakness, but he will then have less control to establish a pedestrian pace he may desire.

None of the above make my top Belmont selection however, has I will remain true to a horse for which I am just waiting for his break out moment. I have supported Mucho Macho Man since his third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) in March – a race in which he ran most of with but three shoes. There was concern about the six-weeks between Louisiana and Kentucky, but it did not shake my resolution as I was sure the improvement without the naked hoof would be significant.

Mucho Macho Man finished a solid third in the Derby and I again speculated on improving Mucho Macho Man in the Preakness. Difficult to say a horse may have needed the Kentucky Derby after the six weeks, but my thinking was just that. But the shoe monster struck Mucho Macho Man again as he again threw a racing plate in the Preakness while finishing a disappointing sixth.

Mucho Macho Man has new glue-on shoes for the Belmont and just as important, will finally turn three-years-old (actually) four days after the Belmont Stakes on June 15. One would think that Mucho Macho Man is the beneficiary of added maturity that has bypassed others with earlier foaling dates. At 10-1, the Belmont is certainly no time to desert Mucho Macho Man at the windows.

Another horse at the attractive price of 10-1 also has my attention is Master of Hounds. In a case of the clock not defining actual speed, Master of Hounds looked to be making up considerable ground in the final 110 yards of the Kentucky Derby. He eventually ran out of ground coming from as far back as eight and three-quarters lengths and Master Hounds should be much closer in the Belmont Stakes if he can manage to repeat the running styles he showed when second in the UAE Derby (gr. II-UAE) in March. The England-to-Kentucky, Kentucky-to-England then England-to-New York itinerary has created some skepticism, but the cool front expected to hit New York Saturda and having trainer Aidan O’Brien erase much of that doubt.

Belmont Selections
1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Animal Kingdom
3. Master of Hounds

Belmont Trends Say Stay Close Early

With the post positions now set and the morning line made for the 143rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I) Saturday, handicappers and prognosticators can now get underway. But before speed figures are studied and past performances perused, perhaps defining what it takes to win the Belmont Stakes is in order. After all, with the 1-1/2 mile distance, the sandy Belmont main track, the wide sweeping turns and it place as the third leg of the grueling Triple Crown to name a few of the races nuances, the Belmont Stakes is among the most unique in North America.

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) winner Animal Kingdom has been installed as the morning line favorite with 5-to-2 odds. Unfortunately, being either the Derby winner or the favorite have not been so prosperous in the concrete jungle where dreams are made of.

In the last 30 years, only Swale in 1984 and Thunder Gulch 11 years later, have won both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. During that same span, seven others who won the Run for the Roses finished second – sometimes heartbreaking seconds – in the Belmont. Smarty Jones (2004), Real Quiet (1999), Silver Charm (’97) and Sunday Silence all finished second in the Belmont to end their bid for the Triple Crown. Pleasant Colony (’81), Alysheba (’87), Charismatic (’99),War Emblem ('02)and Big Brown (’08) were less dramatic in losing their Triple Crowns in the Belmont.

Favorites have not fared so well in the last three decades either. Only six favorites have won the last 30 runnings (20%) of the Belmont Stakes with the last being Afleet Alex in 2005. Other favorites to don the white carnations in the Belmont winners’ circle were Point Given (’01), Thunder Gulch, A.P. Indy (’92), Risen Star (’88) and Swale.

Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro has been assigned the role as second favorite in the morning line at 4-to-1. If Nehro goes to the gate in the Belmont as the second most popular among punters, he will have a considerable advantage, at least from a historical perspective, over the favorite. In the last 30 years, ten Belmont winners (30%) have gone off as the second choice In the wagering.

Although many wrongly assume that the 12 furlong Belmont plays into an advantage for closers, trainer Steve Asmussen may want jockey Corey Nakatani to repeat his strategy in the Kentucky Derby with Nehro. Previously a closer from as far back as tenth-place in earlier races, Nehro was sixth after the first half-mile of the Derby, but was just more than 3 lengths from the lead.

That seems to be the cat bird seat in the Belmont Stakes, or near that margin anyway. Looking back 30 years again, only five horses have won the Belmont virtually from gate to wire and seven others have won the race from 6-1/2 lengths off the lead or more after the first four furlongs. The other 18 winners raced from between a half-length to 3-1/2 lengths off the lead early in their victorious romps in New York.

It would not be smart to totally discount a front runner like Shackleford, however. With little competition for the front-runner position, Shackleford is likely to try to join the likes of Da’ Tara (2008), Touch Gold, Swale and Conquistador Cielo in 1982 as those who won after leading early in the Belmont. Touch Gold throws a bit of a monkey wrench into this analysis after his quirky 1997 victory in which he lead after a half-mile, then dropped back to fourth, before making another run to catch Silver Charm at the wire.

And not all speedsters are completely defeated by the long Belmont distance. Nine other front runners have held on to finish second or third in the last 30 years. In fact, in the last three years, the pace-setter has finished in the top two with First Dude and Dunkirk both finishing second last year and 2009 respectively; and Da’ Tara winning.

Preakness winners have had their challenges in the Belmont with only five winning the second and third jewels of the Triple Crown in the last 30 years including Afleet Alex (’05), Point Given (’01), Tobasco Cat (’94), Hansel (’91) and Risen Star.

Master of Hounds returns to the United States from his base in trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Britain after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby and returning to Europe. In the last 30 years, he will be the 11th invader to start in the Belmont Stakes after traveling to New York from abroad with only Go And Go winning in 1990. Others of note were Le Voyageur, third in the 1989 Belmont behind Easy Goer and Sunday Silence; and My Memoirs, second to A.P. Indy in 1992.

The history of the Belmont is as interesting and unique as the race itself and over the last 30 years some trends seem to have developed. Speed horses, obviously, do not win the Belmont with any regularity, but they stay in the top three more often than some might think. Closers seem to have their challenges as well while staying close to the pace seems to be the winning formula.

The race has certainly measured up to its moniker as the Test of Champions as ten of the last 30 winner’s have been recognized as the divisional champion at year’s end and 59 in all. It is a large field that has entered to run in the 2011 Belmont with 12 slated to start in one of the oldest races in North America. Whether this Belmont is to be won by Derby champion Animal Kingdom, invader Master of Hounds, Preakness winner Shackleford or any other, after the race, somebody will be under the bright lights of New York and all its fame and history.

Belmont Iconic Regardless of Triple Crown

Since Shackleford dug in on his left lead in the final strides of the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) two weeks ago, holding off Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom, we’ve known there will be no Triple Crown winner in 2011. It will be 33 years to the day Friday, since Affirmed and the young jockey Steve Cauthen captured the attention of America by holding off the nemisis Alydar by head to win the Belmont Stakes after taking the Derby and Preakness in 1978.

Therefor, the crowd at Belmont Park Saturday will not be as big as the crowd if Animal Kingdom had been going for the illustrious Triple Crown; and the television ratings probably won’t be as strong. The mediocrity of this group of thoroughbreds has also been concluded by those analysts who calculate such equine performance evaluations and not widely disputed by many outside the Beyers and Ragozins of the world.

But you have to give this 2011 class of 3-year-olds some credit – on many different fronts quite frankly. They have been a sound bunch compared to some classes in front of them. Arkansas Derby (gr. I) winner Archarcharch has been retired due to an injury he suffered in the Kentucky Derby, but most of the other 2008 3-year-old colt models are either still racing or in an extended pit stop.

In fact, the last three stars to leave the Triple Crown trail are all expected to return to the races. Premier Pegasus, scratched just days before going to the gate as the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) favorite, is recovering from his surgery to repair a hair line fracture in his left front cannon bone and may return to the races this summer. San Vincente Stakes (gr. II) and Rebel Stakes (gr. II) winner The Factor is recovering from similar surgery and trainer Bob Baffert has said the August 27 Foxwood’s King’s Bishop Stakes(gr. I) at Saratoga is the target for the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) favorite. Uncle Mo, the champion 2-year-old male from last year and favorite to win the Derby for most of the winter, was scratched the day before the race not because of injury, but problems with his liver, (cholangeohepatitis for those scoring at home.) There is optimism that last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)winner will again race if efforts to treats his current condition succeed.

Having nineteen from a given class start in the Kentucky Derby is nothing special, but this group came right back and filled up the gate with 14 starting in the Preakness and there are 11 probable and three additional possible starters for the Belmont Stakes. That is partially due to a lack of an intimidating star, but as Jay Privman pointed out in his Daily Racing Form column, it may be the first time ever that the first seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby also start in the Belmont. As Privman also said, even if the top six finishers in the Derby start in the Belmont, it will be history. It has been since 1950 since the first five Derby finishers came back to run in the Belmont Stakes.

This group is not the most accomplished: there are only three 2011 stakes victories between Shackleford and Animal Kingdom and multiple graded stakes winners in the class since the first of the year can be counted on one hand. Long shot winners dominated the races leading up to the Triple Crown with the Florida Derby the only grade 1 race on dirt this year with a single digit win pay-off.

Even with no chance of a Triple Crown winner, both Animal Kingdom and Shackleford have an opportunity to join a fairly elite group that has won two legs of the Triple Crown and not the other. Only eleven horses have won the Kentucky Derby, lost in the Preakness, then won the Belmont. Coincidentally, eleven others have lost in the Derby, then come back to win the Preakness and Belmont. Seven others have won the Preakness and Belmont without running in the Kentucky Derby, but all of those were in 1922 and before when the Preakness was run before the Kentucky Derby.

The last to pull of the Derby-Belmont double was Thunder Gulch in 1995 with Swale (1984), Bold Forbes (’76), Chateaugay (’63), Needles (’56) and Zev (’23) among them as well. All were named champions in their respective years.

Among the eleven to win the Preakness and Belmont after losing the Derby, ten of those were named champions including Afleet Alex (2005), Point Given (’01), Hansel (1991), Risen Star (’88), Little Current (’74), Damascus (’67), Nashua (’55), Native Dancer (’53), Capot (’49) and Bimelech in 1940. Tabasco Cat in 1994 was the only member of that fraternity not to be named champion.

Certainly though, the Belmont Stakes is an iconic sporting event in North America regardless of a potential Triple Crown winner or not. Since the race was first run at Jerome Park in 1867, 59 of its winners have been named the champion 3-year-old colt or gelding of their respective years.

Three times, the Belmont Park crowd has exceeded 100,000 on-track fans with the largest crowd coming in 2004 when 120,139 came to watch Birdstone stop the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones. Large crowds of between 45,000 and 70,000 are typical on Belmont day.


The Belmont is also the oldest of the Triple Crown races predating the first Preakness (1873) by six years and the first Kentucky Derby (1875) by eight years. The Belmont Stakes is one of the oldest races in North America with the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland (1831), the Queen’s Plate (1864) at Woodbine in Canada and the Travers Stakes (1864) at Saratoga older. However, the Belmont, which will be run for the 143rd time in 2011, is third to the Phoenix (159th running in 2011) and Queens Plate (152nd running in 2011) in total runnings. The Travers has had gaps in its history and its 142nd running will be in 2011.

For those reasons, the Belmont Stakes has plenty of history and prestige and the winner will be deserving of the all that comes with winning the American classic.

Rivalry Wishes

Now that we don’t have a Triple Crown winner for the thirty-third consecutive year, what can we hope for from this much maligned crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds?

One, we can hope for a rivalry to develop between Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness (gr. I) winner Shackleford. It would be wonderful to see both come back in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park June 4. It would be better if the two hooked up at the top of the Belmont stretch and had a good old fashioned ding-dong battle to the wire.

To take our wish a little further, think how special it would be for the two to race together throughout the summer in say the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) at Monmouth in July, then on to the Travers Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga in August. While we’re in the wishing mood, let’s add to the list the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) and full circle back to Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships.

But there are many things that will likely prevent our wish list from happening, not the least of which is owners who may not share our hopes. Animal Kingdom is instead owned by Team Valor International while Michael Lauffer and Bill Cubberdge own Shackleford.

Team Valor International is a syndicate of some 20 owners involved in Animal Kingdom. Controlling that syndicate is the sometimes controversial Barry Irwin, the long time proprietor of Team Valor International. Regardless of how much the racing industry needs stars (i.e. Kentucky Derby winners) to stay in the sport, there will be the lure of further riches in breeding shed for Animal Kingdom. Although his Brazilian/German pedigree may keep him on the track longer than if he had more popular bloodlines, there will be a point of marginal financial return in which Irwin will have to strongly consider the colt’s retirement, regardless of his soundness and/or success on the track.

That decision would not be based solely on greed either. Regardless of Irwin’s perception or lack of popularity among racing fans, he must responsibly answer to the many Team Valor folks who own a piece of Animal Kingdom. Team Valor International has been one of the most accomplished thoroughbred ownership syndicates in the world for more than 20 years. Irwin didn’t build that success by making a bunch of decisions based on emotion and popularity.

Lauffeer and Cubbedge on the other hand, are only responsible to themselves in making decisions about Shackleford. Should they decide to keep the colt on the race track, only injury can derail that plan. But in many ways, the two partners face the same dilemma as Irwin, regardless if they have intentions to keep the colt racing or not.

While Shackleford has more domestic bloodlines, his sire Forestry has had limited success after a decade in the stallion shed. If he doesn’t prove himself as a sire early, Shackleford may have some lean years later in his stud career. Still, with his Preakness credentials and speed, there will be plenty of money to be made during his early years in the stud shed. Of course, like all stallions, if Shackleford is successful producing runners such as himself, those lean years will never come.

Another obvious road block to a rivalry is the racing schedule. The Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) is the New York prep race for the Travers and is run at the same time as the Haskell. One camp could go to the Jim Dandy while the other runs in the Haskell.

Less prestigious Summer and Fall races like the West Virginia Derby, Pennsylvania Derby, Indiana Derby and Louisiana’s Super Derby are sometimes options for Triple Crown race winners as well. Management teams at tracks that host these minor derbies often contrive bonuses at the last minute, specifically targeting Derby, Preakness and/or Belmont winners.

But if both colts stay healthy and the breeding industry can wait, then there is no reason why a rivalry could not be born. The East Coast/West Coast barrier that kept Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra apart during their racing careers does not exist between these two colts. Animal Kingdom trainer Graham Motion is stabled in Maryland during the summer while Dale Romans, trainer of Shackleford, is based at Churchill Downs giving both, easy access to the races in our dream schedule.


Now that we have come to the realization that there won’t be another Triple Crown winner in 2011, the best racing fans can hope for now from this crop of 3-year-olds is a rivalry. While neither Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom nor Preakness winner Shackleford have been confirmed for the Belmont Stakes, both camps have said the 1-1/2 mile Test of Champions is a possible next start for both.

Of course, like last year, a different horse could win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. That would not be optimal for rivalry wanting fans, but as long as Animal Kingdom and Shackleford are competitive, there is nothing wrong with a three-horse rivalry either. It’s just much more difficult keeping three horses on the same path for any extended period of time.

Schedules, injuries and the riches of the breeding shed can – and probably will – keep such a rivalry from developing. Or maybe the racing gods will bless the fans with such a wish. After all, they haven’t given us a Triple Crown winner since 1978. They kinda owe us a little something.

Look For A Macho Preakness

If we have learned one thing from the 3-year-old Thoroughbred class of 2011, is that they are full of surprises. They might not be that talented compared to other classes of years past either. That's two things.

Therefore, it is difficult to interpret the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) victory by Animal Kingdom two weeks ago. Is Animal Kingdom a horse that has suddenly blossomed into a world-class race horse and is to dominate this mediocre class? Or is he the beneficiary of this year's trend - a horse peaking in a given grade 1 race only to regress and disappoint in their next start.

Certainly Animal Kingdom can be the former. He can win the Preakness, the Belmont and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978. I’m just going to have to bet against it.

The Kentucky Derby was by far his best career race and that obviously sets up for a negative bounce in the Preakness. Even if he drops off only slightly in his Preakness performance, odds are that somebody else in the 14-horse field will step up and perhaps have their career best day. That, after all, does seem to be the pattern for this group.

So where does that leave us in terms of finding a winner? The connections behind Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro have passed on the Preakness in favor of a rest and relaxation for their well-traveled star in place of firing their best shot at the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in three weeks. But third-place finisher Mucho Macho Man and fourth-place speedster Shackleford will be a Pimlico Saturday to make another run at the Derby champion. Dialed In, eighth in the Derby as the favorite; and Santa Anita Derby winner Midnight Interlude (the 16th-place finisher in Kentucky are also making another run Animal Kingdom.

There weren’t many excuses for those who chased Animal Kingdom in the Kentucky Derby. It was one of the cleanest run Kentucky Derbies in quite some time. But my top choice in the Preakness may have had a more subtle reason for not being at his best on the first Saturday in May.

Mucho Macho Man found himself in perfect stalking position in the early part of the Kentucky Derby as jockey Rajiv Maraj had him placed four to five lengths behind frontrunner Shackleford down the backside. The son of Macho Uno made what looked like a potentially winning move around the far turn, but was five wide and may have covered too much extra ground by the time he had a clear shot at the finish line. Instead of accelerating and passing Shackleford at the top of the stretch, he seemed to not have quite enough to close the victory. The six weeks between his previous start in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) and Kentucky may have had something to do with that as well.

My second pick in the Preakness did not run in the Kentucky Derby, but that was not because of any decision by his owner or trainer. The connections behind Sway Away had every intention of running in the Run for the Roses but fell just short on eligibility. The top 20 Derby entrants in terms of earnings in graded stakes races get a slot in the Churchill Downs starting gate. Sway Away was ranked 21st among those wanting to run in Kentucky. But he qualified for the Preakness and may be a good bet with his 15-1 morning line odds.

Sway Away first caught my attention in February when he was a fast closing second behind the speedy The Factor in the seven furlong San Vincente Stakes (gr. III) at Santa Anita. The Factor, a speedster, had many advantages that day, not the least of which was the short distance. It seemed that Sway Away would benefit from the extra distance of races ahead on the Triple Crown trail.

The Jeff Bonde trained Sway Away would have that chance in his next start, 1-1/16th mile Rebel Stakes (gr. II) at Oaklawn Park. But Sway Away looked to have no interest in racing that day as he was fractious at the gate and just as uneasy in the early part of the race. He he finished sixth, nearly 10 lengths behind The Factor.

In his next race, new jockey Pat Valenzuela kept him much closer to the leaders in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) and it momentarily looked like the correct strategy. Sway Away took the lead at the top of the stretch would eventually finish fourth behind Archarcharch, Nehro and Dance City.

Two important things have happened since Arkansas Derby that makes Sway Away attractive in the Preakness. First, the Arkansas Derby has developed into perhaps the most significant race leading up to the Kentucky Derby making it a "key race" in handicapping parlance. Second-place finisher Nehro was also second in the Derby and fifth-place finisher Alternation just won the grade 2 Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park, the major local prep for the grade 1 Belmont Stakes.

A rider change from the aggressive Pat Valenzuela in the Arkansas Derby to the more patient Garret Gomez in the Preakness should also benefit Sway Away in the Preakness. Laying further back in Baltimore should allow Sway Away to use his energy much more efficiently and perhaps have much more in the tank down the stretch and improve to an in-the-money performance if not better.

Animal Kingdom should be credited with a few accomplishments in the Kentucky Derby that make him a legitimate Triple Crown threat. He came from off the pace and reeled in the front runners in a race run at tepid pace and advantageous to those who lead early in the classic contest. But Animal Kingdom still had enough acceleration to overcome the leaders and that is a valuable commodity to any race horse at this level. A duplication of that effort will probably not be defeated at Pimlico. He seems to be improving with every race – regardless of the surface having won on artificial and dirt and finishing second on turf in his last three races – and don’t underestimate his little win over 18 rivals on the first Saturday in May. Right now Animal Kingdom looks the best. But that has been the case for many this year that have disappointed in their next race.

Dialed In has taken the role of Preakness favorite away from Animal Kingdom in the early wagering despite his eighth-place finish in Kentucky. Trainer Nick Zito suffered the frustration of watching the slowest Kentucky Derby pace since 1947 as his come-from-behind Dialed In languished even further back than normal during the first six furlongs in the Derby. The Florida Derby winning Dialed In still managed to pass eleven horses before the finish line, but was unable to overcome the adversity of trying to catch the front runners who had managed to slow the early running to nearly a crawl. Dialed In should benefit from a faster pace in the Preakness but will again have plenty of horses to pass from his customary last place early running style.

The other long shot that may have some potential to make an impact is Mr. Commons. After finishing third in the Santa Anita Derby behind Midnight Interlude, the son of Artie Schiller was not considered for the Kentucky Derby because of a lack of earnings in graded stake races. Mr. Commons has plenty of tactical speed to allow jockey Victor Espinoza to lay close if necessary or just off the pace. Mr. Commons breaks from the far outside 14 post position, but will have plenty of time and room before the first turn forces him into an uncomfortable running position. Ultra-conservative trainer John Shirreffs of Zenyatta fame does not send horses across the country from his base at Hollywood Park unless he thinks he has a horse that can fire a major bullet.

The Brock Talk’s Preakness Picks
1- #9 Mucho Macho Man
2- #7 Sway Away
3- #11 Animal Kingdom
Longshot: #14 Mr. Commons.

Animal Kingdom Gallops Into Preakness. Asmussen Not Sure On Nehro

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom will likely face a full field of challengers in the Preakness (gr. I) as it appears that at least 14 are pointing toward the second leg of the Triple Crown.

It will be the first time the Preakness starting gate will be filled with 14 starters since 2005 when 50-1 Giacomo won the Kentucky Derby. Prior to that, it was in 1992 when the Preakness last featured a full field. That year the Kentucky Derby was won by 16-1 shot Lil E. Tee with Casual Lies (29-1) second and Dance Floor (33-1). This year, Animal Kingdom won the Kentucky Derby at 20-1 with 8-1 Nehro second and Mucho Macho Man (9-1) third.

The full 14-horse field does not concern Graham Motion, trainer of Animal Kingdom, who told the Preakness notes team that he is just hoping for a good post position.

Although the gate is expected to be full for the Preakness, the field has not yet been set in stone. Trainer Steve Asmussen and owner Ahmed Zayat have said they will make a decision Tuesday as to whether Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehor will go in the Preakness after watching him work a half-mile in :50-4/5 over a sloppy Churchill Downs track Monday the two

Nehro was second in his three previous races, the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) March 26, the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) April 16 and the May 7 Kentucky Derby so the Preakness would be the colt’s fourth start in just eight weeks. “He’s done a lot over a short period of time,” Asmussen said. “I think you’re trying to evaluate the runs, the races themselves and how he’s doing, while also trying to weigh the opportunity that is ahead of you.” Asmussen and Zayat are pondering whether to save Nehro and his come-from-behind running style for the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes or go this week in the Preakness.

If Nehro is not entered into the Preakness, that would make way for Isn’t He Perfect, most recently fifth in the Jerome.

Amsussen also worked Astrology a half-mile Monday at Churchill Downs. Considered a definite for the Preakness, Astrology covered the work in :50.60. Like his stable mate Nehro, Astrology also has three seconds in his last three starts going back to the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (gr. II) in November. After overcoming an illness this winter in Southern California, Astrology was also a runner-up in the Sunland Derby (gr. III) March 27 and the Jerome (gr. II) at Belmont Park April 23.

Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In is also set the Preakness after finishing eighth in the Kentucky Derby. Dialed In encountered two problems during the Run for the Roses which give his supporters plenty of hope in the Preakness. After being pinched back at the start, Dialed In found himself unusually far back from pace setter Shackleford. Hence, Dialed In’s second problem. Shackleford was able to slow the pace of the Kentucky Derby to a pedestrian pace while setting the slowest half-mile fractional time (:48.63) since 1947 making it even more difficult for the come-from-behind running style of Dialed In. “You just can’t win in those situations, but he came with his run,” trainer Nick Zito said. “It was probably the best eighth-place finish in Kentucky Derby history.”

Should Dialed In win the Preakness, it will be a $6.1 million payday for him. Dialed In won the Florida Derby (gr. I) at sister track Gulfstream Park fulfilling the first part of the 5.5 Bonus set up by the Magna Corporation. Should Dialed In also win the Preakness, he would earn the $5.5 million bonus to be added to $600,000 winner’s share of the Preakness should the son of Mineshaft win.

Sway Away, who just missed becoming eligible for the Kentucky Derby with his 21st rank in graded earnings, is set for the Preakness and hoping to follow in the footsteps of some of his family. Sway Away is the son of 2005 Preakness winner Afleet Alex and his dam is a daughter of 1977 Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew and granddaughter of 1990 Preakness winner Summer Squall.

Preakness Pulling In Plenty Of Competition For Derby Winner Animal Kingdom

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands winner Animal Kingdom has arrived at trainer Graham Motion’s base at Fair Hill Training Center in Elkton, Maryland. There he will prepare for the Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) to be run at Pimlico Race Course in nearby Baltimore, May 21. Animal Kingdom jogged one mile Tuesday morning and Motion said he will likely jog for a few days before beginning a daily gallop routine leading up to the second leg of the Triple Crown. Motion has not said whether he plans to work Animal Kingdom before the Preakness.

As expected when a 20-1 shot wins the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness looks like it will feature a full gate of challengers. According to the Pimlico media department, the connections behind 20 horses are hoping to have one of the 14 available slots in the Preakness starting gate including Animal Kingdom and six others from the Kentucky Derby. There are also 12 newcomers to the Triple Crown trail whose connections have said they are planning to take on Animal Kingdom in the 1-3/16 mile Preakness – 110 yards shorter than the 1-1/4 mile Kentucky Derby.

Kentucky Derby starters planning on wheeling back into the Preakness include Animal Kingdom (1st), Nehro (2nd), Mucho Macho Man (3rd), Shackleford (4th), Santiva (6th) Dialed In (8th), and Midnight Interlude (16th).

While Dialed In was disappointing as the Kentucky Derby favorite, the late closing son of Mineshaft was handicapped by the incredibly slow pace in the Kentucky Derby as trainer Nick Zito explained Monday. “They ran the slowest first three-quarters in the Derby since 1947 and my horse ran the second fastest (final) half-mile (in :47.02),” Zito said. “Only Secretariat ran a faster final half (:46 2/5). He (Dialed In) was not a short horse. We are going to keep doing what we’ve been doing with him when he was in Florida.”

Credit jockey Julio Castanon for slowing down the Kentucky Derby pace with the speedy Shackleford and putting the Florida Derby runner-up in position to win at the top of the stretch. Before 1910, half-mile splits in :49-plus were commonplace. But in the 100 years since 1910, only Jet Pilot (1947), Clyde Van Dussen (29), Misstep in the 1928 Derby won by Reigh Count, Viva America in the 1918 Exterminator Derby and Worth in 1912 have been slower than Shackleford. Only six others ran the first half-mile in the Derby in :48s with Rockhill Native being the last. In the 1980 Derby won by Genuine Risk, he lead the field after a half-mile in :48 flat.

Dialed In will also be trying for the biggest payday in North American racing history with his 5.5 bonus made possible by winning the Florida Derby. Should he also win the Preakness, an additional $5 million will be paid to owner Robert LaPenta and $500,000 to Zito. With the $600,000 winner’s share of the Preakness, it would be a $6.1 million pay-day eclipsing the $5.8 million earned by Smarty Jones for winning the Arkansas Derby and Kentucky Derby.

Among the Triple Crown rookies expected in the Preakness are Astrology, Dance City, Mr. Commons, Flashpoint, Sway Away and the locally based Norm Asbjornson.

Trained by Steve Asmussen Astrology was on the road to the Kentucky Derby before an illness slowed his winter progress. Second in both the Sunland Derby (gr. 3) in March and Jerome Handicap (gr. 2) in late April, Astrology worked six furlongs in 1:12.40 at Churchill Downs Monday morning preparing for the Preakness. Two days earlier, Shackleford ran the first six furlongs in the Kentucky Derby exactly one second slower than Astrology's work.


Dance City is a lightly raced Todd Pletcher trainee who last finished third behind Archarcharch and Nehro in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) in early April. The John Shirreffs-trained Mr. Commons also finished third in his last race, the grade 1 Santa Anita Derby behind winner Midnight Interlude and Comma to the Top in second. Sway Away was a late charging second behind The Factor in the San Vincente Stakes in Februay before finishing fourth in the Arkansas Derby in his last race.

Norman Asbjornson is based at Pimlico with trainer Chris Grove, has at least more credentials than most Maryland-based Preakness runners. In March, the son of 1998 Preakness winner Real Quiet finished second to Stay Thirsty in the Gotham Stakes (gr. 2), and was fourth, beaten only 4-1/2 lengths by Toby’s Corner in the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) in April.

At one time trainer Bob Baffert had indicated that Rebel Stakes winner The Factor was possible for the Preakness but has now said that the Woody Stephens at Belmont Park will be his next race. In another Preakness note, jockey Robbie Albarado, who was taken off Animal Kingdom the day before the Kentucky Derby because the connections deemed his injuries to serious to ride, has picked up the Preakness mount on King Congie.

There have been 21 horses win both the Derby and the Preakness. Big Brown (2008), Smarty Jones (’04) and Funny Cide (’03) are the most recent. A victory by Animal Kingdom and he’s number 22. More important, a Preakness victory also means he will then have a chance at becoming the 12th Triple Crown winner. Even though Animal Kingdom has the Kentucky Derby victory on his resume, it appears he’s not scarring anybody out of the Preakness. Just more than ten days away from the second leg of the Triple Crown and 19 horses are considering the race. Dialed In has 6.1 million incentives while others have plenty with just the $600,000 and history.

Kentucky Derby Thoughts, Comments and Questions

A couple of rattlings before pondering the Preakness…

You won’t be alone if you don’t expect Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) winner Animal Kingdom to win the Preakness (gr. 1) and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) and become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1977. But is too much for horse racing to want to see a Kentucky Derby victor win a a race after the big win at Churchill Downs? Not since Big Brown won the Monmouth Stakes over Proudinsky in September of 2008, has a Kentucky Derby champion won race after the Kentucky Derby. Since then, Mine That Bird and Super Saver have been 0-12 during their post Kentucky Derby careers.

If you're not a big fan of Animal Kingdom, you’re not alone either. It is difficult to root for owner Team Valor’s manager Barry Irwin after he told NBC’s Bob Newmeier that he chose Graham Motion to train Animal Kingdom because he was “just tired of other trainers lying to me and I wanted a guy to tell me the truth.” When pressed by Newmeier as to how many trainers are liars, he responded “plenty.” Then a slick, “hey listen, I’ve gotta go”… Justified or not, replacing jockey Robbie Albarado at the last minute because of injury concerns to the jockey’s eye and broken nose, isn’t helping Irwin’s popularity either. There was no reason to make the jockey change the day before instead of waiting to see if Albarado could ride. Especially after Albarado won the grade 1 Humana Distaff earlier on the Derby card with Sassy Image.

Churchill always seems to fall a little short on the star power of the their Kentucky Derby day National Anthem singer. “Grammy-nominated, platinum selling artist,” Jordan Sparks did little to change that notion. But she got all the words right…

Calling the Kentucky Derby for the first time for NBC, Larry Collmus was flawless. In text book track announcer fashion, he described the action up front early while the field settled. He then went horse-by-horse through the entire field with out a stumble and was observant in picking up horses making their moves around the far turn. As Neho and Shackleford battled down the stretch, Collmus immediately picked up Animal Kingdom and his late rally from the middle of the pack. I give Collmus an Excellent, A+, top of the bell curve 10.

With Animal Kingdom paying $43.80 to win the Kentucky Derby, the trend continues. The average win pay-off in six grade 1 races this year for 3-year-olds is $28.71. That includes Dialed In winning the Florida Derby and paying $7.80 on the low end and Archarcharch paying $52.40 to win the Arkansas Derby on the top end of the long shot spectrum.

It was a very clean race by Kentucky Derby standards. My Kentucky Derby top choice, Mucho Macho Man, broke well from the 13 hole and only had to check once in the charge to the first turn when he was mildly brushed by Soldat. Winner Animal Kingdom probably had a similarly minor check at about the same time. There was some other bumping, but nobody was eliminated by the calvary charge that is usually the Kentucky Derby clubhouse turn.

Kentucky Derby television ratings dropped 6% from last year but still had a strong 9.7 overnight rating which translates to 9.7% of households in 56 urban markets according to USA Today. In comparison, the Los Angeles Lakers playoff loss to the Dallas Mavericks Sunday drew a 6.5 rating which was up 27% from last year. NBA playoffs were also up across the board over the weekend while NASCAAR, like the Kentucky Derby was also down compared to last year.

A finally a Kentucky Derby seperated at birth?

Jockey Shaun Bridgmohan and Parks and Recretation start Aziz Ansari

Mucho Reasons To Like The Macho Man

For all intents and purposes, six horses qualified for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) by earning enough graded stakes money in the three stakes considered serious prep races this past weekend.

Animal Kingdom, Pants on Fire and Twice the Appeal won the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3), Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) and Sunland Derby (gr. 3) respectively. Decisive Moment added $95,000 to his previous bankroll of $206,000 with his runner-up finish in the Spiral Stakes and now looks to have enough to enter the Kentucky Derby. In fact, Decisive Moment was the first Kentucky Derby contnender to arrive at Churchill Downs today. (photo) Mucho Macho Man likely had enough graded earnings before the Louisiana Derby but the $100,000 third-place check out of the Louisiana Derby pretty much solidifies his Kentucky qualifications. Similarly, Sunland Derby second-place finisher Astrology added enough to his existing earnings to likely get a spot in the starting gate in the Run for the Roses.

Although the Louisiana Derby has produced some Kentucky Derby starters that have gone to the gate at Churchill Downs among the favorites, the past winners of the Sunland Derby and Spiral Stakes are often among the less popular on the first Saturday in May, (If they make it to the Kentucky Derby at all.)

That is not to say that we did not see the future Kentucky Derby winner run this weekend. All three of these prep races have produced winners of the first leg of the Triple Crown. Horses that have won both the Louisiana Derby and Kentucky Derby include Grindstone (1996) and Black Gold (1924) while Lil E. Tee won in Kentucky in 1992 after winning the Spiral Stakes that year. Two years ago, Mine That Bird won the Derby at odds of 50-1, coming to Kentucky from the 2009 Sunland Derby where he finished third.

Interestingly, among the starters this weekend, the horse with the best chance of attracting wagers at the Kentucky Derby, finished third this weekend. Mucho Macho Man looked as though we was set to challenge leader Pants on Fire at the top of the stretch in the Louisiana Derby, the eventual winner pulled away and held off late charging and eventual runner-up Nehro. At first glance, it appeared as if Mucho Macho Man had run the second disappointing race in his last three starts.

Following the race, however, it was discovered that Mucho Macho Man had lost a shoe at some point very near the start of the race. That completely changes how the Louisiana Derby performance of Mucho Macho Man is evaluated. Instead of looking at Mucho Macho Man with doubt as to if he belongs in the Kentucky Derby, he instead retains his place among those likely to have a chance to win.

The thrown shoe by Mucho Macho Man in Louisiana will also be something lost among a great many of those betting the Kentucky Derby. So should Mucho Macho Man make it to Kentucky, there is a good chance he will be a bit of a wagering overlay. That is to say his odds will be artificially higher than they perhaps they should be.

Mucho Macho Man may not be the fastest or most talented of this group of 3-year-olds in 2011, but he oozes with determination. The son of Macho Uno started the year as the favorite in the grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park but finished fourth behind eventual winner Dialed In. After the race, jockey Eibar Coa said he had a difficult time getting Mucho Macho Man to relax during the early part of the Holy Bull and therefore spent too much energy too early in the race.

But Mucho Macho Man came back strong to win the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 3) at Fairgrounds in his next start showing that he had the determination to win and the character to rebound from a loss. Trainer Kathy Ritvo also took the blinkers off of Mucho Macho Man, which may have allowed him to settle a little easier for jockey Rajiv Maragh. Despite any lack of talent or pedigree, determination and character can be extremely valuable in a race with 19 other horses at a distance of 1-1/4 miles. Having the ability to rate and settle behind the always fast fractions in the Kentucky Derby will also be an asset.

Of course the Mucho Macho Man story can tug at one’s heart in other ways as well. Three years ago Ritvo was hospitalized and in very serious condition as she lay waiting for a heart transplant that had no guarantee of arrival. The donated heart eventually arrived and Ritvo has not only recovered, but now has a Kentucky Derby contender in her stable.

What the stable is missing however is jockey Eibar Coa, the regular rider aboard Mucho Macho Man before breaking a vertebrae in a spill at Gulfstream Park in February. Although Maragh has taken over riding Mucho Macho Man, the ownership team of Reeves Thoroughbred Racing and Dream Team One Thoroughbred Racing have insisted the recovering Coa is still very much a part of the team. In fact majority owner Dan Reeves visited Coa in the hospital following the Risen Star victory and presented him a check for $18,000, equal to the compensation paid Maragh for the win.

So there are plenty of reason to pull for Mucho Macho Man to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. Not the least of which is your knowledge of the lost shoe in New Orleans.