Horse of the Year Defense Starts Early for Havre de Grace

It will be very easy to cheer for 2011 Horse of the Year Havre de Grace (photo right) this year. After all, owner Rick Porter and trainer Larry Jones are the popular sort with fans who are beginning to especially appreciate those keeping their equine stars around the track a bit longer. For that reason alone, there will be just a few more cheering on those red and white silks of Fox Hill Farms worn by jockey Gabriel Saez aboard Havre de Grace in 2012.

Havre de Grace may also pick up some fans from her rival, the recently retired Blind Luck. Why would a fan begrudge Blind Luck for retiring earlier than Havre de Grace? No matter the reason for her retirement, Blind Luck was an equine version of Winston Wolfe. She was the sort who would take the call, write down the address and then travel anywhere, anytime and take care of business.

One may also assume any further accolades accomplished by Havre de Grace on the track, really just add to the racing legacy of Blind Luck. Point being, Havre de Grace should have plenty of fans this year. But from the looks of things early this year, while training well at Oaklawn Park, Havre de will not have a monopoly on popularity among racing fans.

The Florida Sunshine Millions gave affirmation to fans of Mucho Macho Man as he won the $400,000 Sunshine Millions Classic and Awesome Feather, winner of the $300,000 Sunshine Millions Distaff.

Mucho Macho Man continues his wave of acclaim that started during his 3-year-old old season. The Kathy Ritvo-trainee joined only Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness (gr. 1) winner Shackleford as the only three horses to start in every Triple Crown race last year. The Florida-bred son of Macho Uno was third in the Derby but disappointed with off-the-board finishes in the Preakness and Belmont.

Mucho Macho Man was given a break after the Belmont but returned with vigor easily winning an allowance race at Aqueduct in November before making his 2012 debut in the Sunshine Millions Classic.

Awesome Feather also returned to the races in New York last Fall after tendon injuries sidelined her for most of her sophomore year. After an undefeated and championship season as a 2-year-old, Awesome Feather came back from her lay-off last year and won the Le Slew Stakes at Belmont in October and the Gazelle Stakes (gr. 1) at Aqueduct in November. Although many of her wins have come against fellow Florida-breds, Awesome Feather has had little trouble when stepping up to open, grade I races. And as long as she keeps that race record unblemished, her fame will continue to grow along with the streak.

Few horses in North America carry the esteem of a Kentucky Derby winner, and it seems all systems are go for Animal Kingdom’s return in 2012. After his sixth-place finish in the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) won by Ruler on Ice last year, a hairline fracture in the left hock of Animal Kingdom was discovered and ended his year. But the now 4-year-old son of Leroidesanimaux has been doing well for trainer Graham Motion who saw Animal Kingdom put in a bullet work Jan. 25 at Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida, going five furlongs on grass in :59 4/5.

According to reports, owner Team Valor International manager Barry Irwin says Animal Kingdom is scheduled to race again in the grade 3 Tampa Bay Stakes Feb. 25. Irwin said the 1-1/16 mile race on the Tampa Bay Downs turf will act as preparation for the $10 million, group 1 Dubai World Cup Mar. 31 at Meydan Race Course in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Shackleford (photo left) is also working toward his return to the races at Palm Meadows for trainer Dale Romans who says the Donn Handicap (gr. I) at Gulfstream Park Feb. 11. Last seen finishing second to Caleb’s Posse in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (gr. I) Nov. 5 at Churchill Downs, Shackleford also had runner-up finishes last year in the Florida Derby (gr. I), Haskell Invitational (gr. I) and Indiana Derby (gr. 2). His “catch me if you can” running style also keeps Shackleford popular among his fans.

Don’t under estimate Game On Dude and his fans either. The runner-up to Drosselmeyer in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. I) and winner of the two Santa Anita Handicap (gr. I) and Goodwood Stakes (gr. I) also has jockey Chantal Sutherland and trainer Bob Baffert on her team. Both world-class in their trades, they are equally charismatic and media savey.

And then of course there is the possibility of an ultra popular 3-year-old. It has been since Derby and Preakness winner Big Brown in 2008 when we last saw a horse go to the Belmont Stakes for a chance at the Triple Crown and since Affirmed in 1978 when had our last Triple Crown winner. Big Brown was pulled up and finished last in the Belmont Stakes, but as chronicled many times on this blog, not since Big Brown won the 2008 Monmouth Stakes have seen a Kentucky Derby champ even win a subsequent race.

Horse racing is not only due for a popular and post Kentucky Derby successful 3-year-old, but 33 years is long enough to wait for a Triple Crown winner too.

Yes Havre de Grace, unless she repeats as Horse of the Year in 2012, will probably go down in Thoroughbred history as the difficult part of the answer to a trivia question. No doubt her 2011 can not compare to Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta before her.

Looking at some of the horses that are expected to compete in for the 2012 golden Eclipse Award for Horse of the Year, things are not going to be any easier for Havre de Grace this year. After all, we now know that Jones and Porter are not afraid to take their champion mare and run against older horses at the highest of levels.

Any way one looks at it however, the race for 2012 Horse of the Year is already interesting. And we have barely started.

Let's Play!

With so many great races this weekend from Santa Anita to New York and Indiana in between, there is so much that can be written. So instead of spinning some epic saga… let’s pick some winners. The National Football League has their Play 60 program to encourage kids to exercise. The weekend horse racing has Play Saturday for adults.

Indiana Derby (gr. 2), Hoosier Park, 3-year-olds, 1-1/16 miles, $500,000
Post Time 6:15 pm EDT Saturday

Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) winner Shackleford stands on the Indiana Derby program page as the 8-to-5 morning line favorite, coupled with stable mate Friends Place as part of the Dale Romans (photo right)-trained entry. This will be the second consecutive year the Preakness winner has come to Anderson, Indiana for the Indiana Derby as Lookin at Lucky won this race last year as part of his championship season. Hoosier Park has also been a frequent stop for Romans, who is the all-time leading stakes winning trainer at the track.

None of those accolades, trends or records will be helping Shackleford Saturday night however, as the Indiana Derby has drawn a qualified cast of eight. What seperates Shackleford from the other seven is the class in which he has competed this year. After finishing second at 68-to-1 in the Florida Derby (gr. 1), Shackled hit the Triple Crown and came out, not only with a win in the Preakness, but as only one of three horses this year to competed in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands, Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

After a short vacation, Shackleford hit the Resorts Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park in New Jersey where he was second to a Bob Baffert-trained Coil. Coil was a record 5th Haskell for Baffert, so the runner-up for Shackleford was no disgrace.

But the next race seemed to give an indication that the miles and competition may be taking an effect on the iron horse of the 2011 sophomore class of Thoroughbreds. After leading the Travers Stakes for the first three-quarters of a mile, Shackleford tired badly and finished second to last, more than 22 lengths behind winner Stay Thirsty.

Should that be the case and the Preakness winner has little left in the tank, the obvious choice is Caleb’s Posse, trained by Oklahoma/Texas mainstay Donnie Von Hemel. The homebred son of the $10,000 stallion Posse, has had a constitution testing campaign this year as well. Caleb’s Posse was perhaps the most impressive in his last race when he came from off the pace to sour the comeback of one-time Derby fave Uncle Mo in the King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga in late August.

At one time considered a Kentucky Derby contender after finishing second in the grade 2 Rebel at Oaklawn Park in March, Calleb’s Posse skipped the Triple Crown and has spent the year winning the grade 2 Ohio Derby at Thistledown in June and the grade 2 Amsterdam, also at Saratoga. Although the King’s Bishop and Amsterdam were seven and 6-1/2 furlongs respectively, Calleb’s Posse should have no problem with the Indiana Derby distance of 1-1/16 miles having won the Ohio Derby at the same distance of eight and one-half furlongs.

Among others to watch are 4-to-1 morning line choice Wilburn, a nice winner of the $300,000 Smarty Jones over the same surface in his last race and Populist Politics, a participating third in the super slow Super Derby (gr. 2) in his last race at Louisiana Downs Sept. 10.

Indiana Derby Picks
6 - Caleb’s Posse
4 - Populist Politcs
1 – Shackleford

The Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1), Belmont Park, 3-year-olds and older, 1-1/4 Miles, $750,000
Post Time: 5:46 pm EDT Saturday

Like the Indiana Derby, the Jockey Club Gold Cup has a morning line with solid entry as the favorite with Flat Out and Birdrun coupled as part of the Preston Farms, Inc.-owned entry at 7-to-5. Also like the Indiana Derby, the second choice in Belmont the morning line is just one tick off favoritism, in this case at 8-to-5.

While Birdrun is no slouch, having won the grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap at Belmont Park in June, it appears Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott may have the Birdstone in the Jockey Club Gold Cup: Stay Thirsty likes to run on or near the lead. Flat Out, also trained by Mott, likes to come from off the pace. No other horse in the field appears likely to test Stay Thirsty on the lead and insure an honest pace. So instead of leaving it others, Moss has the speedy Birdrun in the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Although Birdrun may keep Stay Thirsty from stealing the Gold Cup, his presence will not leave Stay Thirsty and jockey Javier Castellano without options. A son of 2006 Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Bernadini, Stay Thirsty appears to like the lead, but need it as was the case in his victory in the Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) two months ago when he was as far back as fourth in the first half-mile.

Not only is this is the first race for Stay Thirsty against older horses, but he is the only 3-year-old among the seven entrants. It will be a whole new class of characters waiting for Stay Thirsty this time in the saddling paddock before the race.

Flat Out and Birdrun are both 5-year-old horses; A.U. Miner and Rodman are both 6-year-olds. Drosselmeyer and Ice Box, two veterans from the 2010 Triple Crown wars, are the youngsters here at age four. There’s not a gelding in the bunch.

We also know that consistency has been a rarity in both the 3-year-old and older ranks this year. That too works against Stay Thirsty who is coming off two consecutive wins. A.U. Miner is the only other Gold Cup starter to have won his last race having taken the $200,000 Greenwood Cup at Parx Racing near Philadelphia in July.

There is also that $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic elephant on the grandstand apron. Will trainer Todd Pletcher wind the strings tight on Stay Thirsty to win the $750,000 Gold Cup with nearly seven times that much sitting at Churchill Downs Nov. 6 waiting to be claimed?

Flat Out also comes out of a difficult summer also with a win in the grade 2 Suburban at Belmont then firing at both the Whitney Handicap and Woodward Stakes at Saratoga, running second in both to Tizway and the filly Havre de Grace respectively.


That leaves the door open enough for me to think that Rodman will have a big day at Belmont Park Saturday. Second to Tizway in the Metropolitan (gr. 2) at one mile in May and third behind Flat Out in the Suburban, he may have been set for a big race in the Woodward, but traffic trouble in the first turn quickly faded those hopes and he finished seventh. Rodman should improve significantly off that race.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Picks
3- Rodman
4-Stay Thirsty
5-Flat Out

The Vosburgh Invitational (gr. 1), Belmont Park, 3-year-olds and older, 6 furlongs, $350,000
Post Time: 3:57 pm EDT Saturday

I chose to handicap the Indiana Derby and the Jockey Club Gold Cup because of their popularity and probable influence on the richest horse racing in North America, the Breeders’ Cup Classic. With Havre de Grace in the Beldame Invitational (gr. 1) and Uncle Mo in the Kelso Handicap (gr. 2) in the two races preceding the Gold Cup and two obvious singles, find a horse with a price in the Vosburgh and I’ve got a Pick-4 ticket to bet. Havre de Grace is a better single than Uncle Mo in my opininion, so if one would want to spread a little in the Kelso, that might not be a bad idea.

The Vosburgh certainly has a horse to beat in Trappe Shot at 9-to-5 in the morning line, and quite frankly he does look tough having won two of his last three races, all at the Vosburgh distance of six furlongs. Second choice Big Drama (photo left) is also solid as the defending Breeders’ Cup Sprint champion which has easily won his only two races this year. He had a nice eight-month vacation from January to September, but since returning has done nothing but win the minor Whipleton Stakes at Calder in September and put in two very nice morning works. The most recent morning drill was a five furlong bullet and before that worked a four furlong breeze that was the second fastest of 75 that morning at Calder.

In trying to find something that might provide more return, Apriority peaks interest as one who likes to come from off the pace. Although his only two wins this year have come against optional claimers, the son of Grand Slam has shown he can compete at this level after a second in the Carter Handicap and fourth in the Vanderbuilt, both grade 1 races earlier this year in New York. He was also just a nose short of Aikenite from winning the seven furlong Churchill Downs (gr. 2) two starts back.

Giant Ryan will also be difficult to pass up at 12-to-1 coming off of five consecutive victories going back to an optional claiming race at Aqueduct in March. In his last race, he came from just off the pace to win the grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder in Florida. That race was just more than 60 days ago, but he has been training well in the morning coming into this race.

Vosburgh Picks
3 - Apriority
6 - Big Drama
8 - Trappe Shot

Pick 4
Race 7 - 3-5-6-8
Race 8 - 3
Race 9 - 5
Race 10 - 3-4-1

Travers Winner Will Join Ghosts and Greats

Take every winner of a major 3-year-old race since the second leg of the Triple Crown and throw in the winners of Monmouth Park’s Long Branch and Woodbine’s Victoria Park Stakes, some long shots, and you have the recipe for the 142nd running of the grade 1 Travers Stakes Saturday at historic Saratoga Race Course.

Winners of the Preakness (gr. 1), Belmont (gr. 1), Resorts Casino & Hotel Casino Invitational (gr. 1) and Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. 2) have entered the 1-1/4 mile “Mid-Summer” Derby and the million dollar purse has attracted four non-stakes winners hoping to capitalize on Saratoga’s historic moniker as the “graveyard of favorites.” It was after all, Saratoga that added “upset” to the sports vernacular when a horse by the same name defeated Man o’War in the 1919 Sanford Memorial at Saratoga.

But the Travers is also known for producing champions. In 2009, Summer Bird was the most recent Travers winner to be named champion 3-year-old colt. The first Travers winner to be so honored was Baden-Baden in 1877 with 24 Travers winning champions in between.

Whirlaway (photo) is the only Triple Winner to win the Travers – having done so in 1941 – but eight others have won two legs of the Triple Crown before winning the Travers some 3 months later in their respective years. Point Given (2001), Man o’War (1920), Damascus (’67), Native Dancer (’53) and Duke of Magenta won the Preakness, Belmont and Travers. Thunder Gulch (1995), Shut Out (’42) and Twenty Grand (’31) won the Derby, Belmont and Travers while.

Since no single horse won two legs of the Triple Crown this year, nobody has a chance to join the likes of Whirlaway, Point Given, Man o’War and Damascus on those lists, but there are plenty other historical clubs to join coming out of the Travers winner's circle.

Favorite Stay Thirsty comes into the Travers after winning the Jim Dandy over the same Saratoga track July 30. Arts and Letters was the first horse to win the Travers after winning the 1969 Jim Dandy with seven others having done so since. Since 1964, the Jim Dandy has been the main local prep race for the Travers and was the same path Bernardini, (sire of Stay Thirsty), used to win the 2006 Travers and later, title as champion 3-year-old colt or gelding that year.

Stay Thirsty also broke his maiden last year at Saratoga, while the only other Travers runner with a win over the track is Malibu Glow. At 20-1 in the morning line, Malibu Glow defeated older allowance horses in a 1-1/8 mile allowance race in late July and is among those with upset aspirations.

Stay Thirsty is trained by Todd Pletcher, who is the current leading trainer at this Saratoga meeting and in search of his seventh title at the Spa. Pletcher is also trying for his second Travers victory after winning in 2005 with Flower Ally.

Another nationally prominent trainer trying for his second Travers win is Bob Baffert, trainer of Haskell winner Coil. Baffert won the 2001 Travers with Point Given, who like his son after him, also won the Haskell Invitational. In fact, Point Given was the last of seven horses to win both the Haskell and Travers. Others who have won the two races include Coranado's Quest (1998), Holy Bull ('94), Forty Niner ('88), Wise Times ('86), Wajima ('75) and Holding Pattern in 1974.

So both Stay Thirsty and Coil hope to follow in the footsteps of their sires, both of whom won a graded race before the Travers, the Travers, and the division championship later.

Belmont Stakes winners have had the most success in the Travers with 27 of them coming back to win the Mid-Summer Derby, of which 14 were also named champion 3-year-old colt or gelding. Summer Bird was the last take the Belmont, Travers and championship, having done so in 2009. The first horse to list those three titles among their accomplishments was Duke of Magenta in 1878. The list also includes legends such as Man o’War (1920), Whirlaway (‘41), Native Dancer (’53), Damacus (’67) and Thunder Gulch (’95).

This year, Belmont winner Ruler On Ice (photo winning the Belmont) is hoping to join that list, but he won’t have the genetic history or trainer accomplishments of Stay Thirsty or Coil. Neither Roman Ruler (sire of Ruler On Ice) nor trainer Kelly Breen have a Travers win on their record, but Ruler On Ice remains among the probable winners at 6-1 odds as one of three grade 1 stakes winners in the Travers. Coil and Shackleford are the others.

Shackleford attained his grade 1 status the classic way, taking the Preakness, the second leg of the Triple Crown. But also like Ruler On Ice, Shackleford’s close bloodlines are not speckled with winners of such races as the Travers, Haskell and Belmont – both have worked for their respect this year. Shackleford has been second in the Florida Derby at 68-1, fourth in Kentucky at 23-1 and won the Preakness at 12-1. His only race as the favorite was the Haskell last month when he was second by a neck behind Coil at 3-2 odds.

Shackleford also fights a futile history of Preakness winners in the Travers. Since Duke of Magenta won the Preakness and Travers in 1878, only six others have pulled off the same double. However, every one of them were champions including Man o’War, Whirlaway, Native Dancer, Damascus, Point Given and Bernardini.

It has been a much maligned group, these 3-year-old colts that make up the sophomore class of 2011. Early season long shots dotted the pre-Kentucky Derby landscape among this crop and different horses have won nearly every major race in this division this year.

But after all of that, some survivors still have a chance to step into the company of legends. Others may be looking for the edge brought on in the company of Saratoga ghosts that haunt race favorites at the upstate New York track.

But whether by grade one or grave yard, the winner of this Travers should have a say in the voting for the coveted Eclipse Award for the champion of this division and perhaps more.

Jumbled Group of 3-Year-Olds Reaching Fast Times Levels of Confusion

There hasn’t been a class like this since Fast Times at Ridgemont High. Literally. Not since 1982, when Sean Penn’s Jeff Spicoli said “Aloha” to Ray Walston’s Mr. Hand in the California teen-culture classic movie, has there been no 3-year-old with more than one grade 1 win at 1-1/8 miles or further on the main track this late in the year.

This schedule of grade 1 races begins just before the Triple Crown with the Florida Derby six weeks before the first Saturday in May. Other grade I Derby prep races include the the Santa Anita Derby, the Arkansas Derby, the Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial, the Blue Grass Stakes and the Arkansas Derby. The grade I schedule continues with the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands, the Preakness, Belmont which make up the Triple Crown, and continues with the Resorts World Casino Haskell Invitational. There is also the grade 1 Queen’s Plate run at Woodbine in Canada in late June or early July and the Travers Stakes run in late August.

Since 1982, there have been 13 years in which the Triple Crown races were won by three different horses. In fact, in the last three years, nine different horses have won the nine Triple Crown races in that span. There were also three different winners of the Derby, Preakness and Belmont in 2006, 2000, 1996,’93, ’92, ’90, ’86, ’85, ’83 and 1982.

In ten of those 13 years, there was yet a different winner of the Haskell. So it is not uncommon for the sophomore thoroughbred male picture to be so unclear this late in the year.

What is unique about this group, is that their inability as individuals two win two grade I races on the main track around two turns goes back to the major Kentucky Derby prep races in Florida, New York, California, Kentucky and Arkansas. This year's winners of those races were Dialed In, Toby’s Corner, Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed and Arch Arch Arch respectively. Then Animal Kingdom, Shackleford and Ruler on Ice won the Derby, Preakness and Belmont as Inglorious wins the Queen’s Plate and Coil wins the Haskell.

In fact, one has to go back 20 years to match this level of inconsistency through July among our star 3-year-olds.

In 1982 Gato Del Sol won the Kentucky Derby while Aloma’s Ruler, Conquistador Cielo and Wavering Monarch won the Preakness, Belmont and Haskell respectively. Six days prior to the Belmont Stakes, Conquistador Cielo won the grade 1 Metropolitan Mile Handicap over older horses, but that was around a one turn one mile at Belmont Park.

The prep races that year were won by Muttering (Santa Anita Derby), Timely Writer (Florida Derby), Air Forbes Won (Wood Memorial) and Hostage (Arkansas Derby). Son of Briartic won the Queen’s Plate that year.

There have been some classes get close to matching the infamous mid-season mark. In 1985, Tank’s Prospect won the Preakness after winning the Arkansas Derby, but was the only sophomore colt or gelding with two grade 1 wins as of Aug. 1. Eight years later, Prairie Bayou won the 1993 Blue Grass Stakes and the Preakness to become the only male 3-year-old with two grade I wins on his resume in the first seven months of that year. But both 1985 and 1993 had interesting circumstances that may mislead to assume apparent confusion in the grade 1 ranks in those years.

Spend A Buck (photo), winner of the 1985 Derby, skipped the Preakness in pursuit of big bonus money then offered by the folks at Garden State Park. That class also included Crème Fraiche, the middle member of trainer Woody Stephens’ five-consecutive Belmont victors; and the next two Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) champions in Florida Derby winner Proud Truth and Skywalker, winner of the Santa Anita Derby. Spend A Buck was named Champion 3-year-old and Horse of the Year that year.

In the 1993 Kentucky Derby, 12-1 shot Sea Hero upset favorite Prairie Bayou, who came to the Derby off his win the Blue Grass. Prairie Bayou managed second in Kentucky, but avenged his loss by winning the Preakness in his next start. Unfortunately, Prairie Bayou broke down in the Belmont Stakes and had to be euthanized. That day Colonial Affair made jockey Julie Krone the only female jockey to win a Triple Crown and Kissin Kris would win he Haskell to keep Prairie Bayou as the only dual grade 1 winner so far that year. Early the next year, owner John Ed Anthony accepted the Eclipse Award naming Prairie Bayou as the champion 3-year-old male of 1993.

This year, nationally acclaimed trainers Todd Pletcher, Nick Zito, Bob Baffert, Bill Mott, Dale Romans, Graham Motions and Kelly Breen have tried everything except the toolbox belonging to Spicoli’s dad in an effort to return their grade I victors to more grade I winners’ circles. But none have been able to muster much consistency out of their high profile trainees of this class to do so.

The next grade I for this bunch is the Travers Stakes at Saratoga Aug. 27. After that, the natural transgression then leads to races against older horses as the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont, and the Goodwood Stakes at Santa Anita lead to the Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in early November.

Some grade I winners from this 2011 sophomore class are sidelined temporarily with minor injuries. Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom and Wood Memorial winner Toby’s Corner are among them. Others such as Arch Arch Arch have met early retirement due to more serious lameness issues. But the connections behind Ruler On Ice, Coil and Shackleford have indicated they are pointing toward the mid-Summer Derby at Saratoga.

So as Spicoli might say in Fast Times "If Baffert, Breen and Pletcher don't get their stars back in form pronto, this class of 3-year-olds might be remembered as bogus too. Get it?"

Jim Dandy and Haskell Bring Out Old and New Faces Alike

This weekend has traditionally been one my favorite weekends on the horse racing calendar each year. It is when the top 3-year-olds return to racing after the long, seven weeks between the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) in the first week of June; and the Jim Dandy (gr. II) and Resorts Casino and Hotel Haskell Invitational (gr. I) this Saturday. It is the weekend when Triple Crown runners typically begin to return to action to meet those that are new to the sophomore scene – having missed the Triple Crown for one reason or the other.

Some might not characterize the seven weeks between the Belmont and the Haskell and Jim Dandy much of a lull anyhow – especially looking at the fields set to run in the Haskell and Jim Dandy this weekend.

Trainer Steve Asmussen won his second Dwyer Stakes (gr. 2) July 2 with Dominus, who ran like he was well-named, winning by some two lengths after leading from the start. Asmussen stays in New York with Dominus who makes his next start Saturday in the Jim Dandy. Peter Pan Stakes (gr. 2) winner Alteration and Matt Winn Stakes (gr. 3) winner Scotus are two other post-Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) stakes winners who will also join the fray in the Jim Dandy.

But the Jim Dandy also features two Triple Crown veterans in Stay Thirsty (second in the Belmont behind Ruler on Ice last out); and Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I) winner Brilliant Speed, (third in the Belmont in his last race. So there is plenty of quality for the Jim Dandy with acts as the local Saratoga prep race for the Travers Stakes (gr. I) to be run later this meeting at the Spa.

Past winners of the 1-1/8 mile Jim Dandy include Arts and Letters (1969), Affirmed (’78), Conquistador Cielo (’82), Louis Quatorze (’96), Favorite Trick (’98) and Street Sense in 2007 so there is plenty of quality and history to keep the Jim Dandy on the list of important races for 3-year-olds.

Two Triple Crown race winners are headed for the 1-1/8 mile Haskell at Monmouth Park in New Jersey. Preakness (gr. 1) winner Shackleford (photo above) and Belmont winner Ruler On Ice are both expected to enter the Haskell and a win by either, perhaps establishes them as the favorite for champion 3-year-old colt or gelding at year’s end. Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom was diagnosed with a small fracture to the cannon bone of his left hind leg and will be out of action for an unknown period of time.

Astrology, third in the Preakness; and ninth-place Derby finisher Pants On Fire, are two other Triple Crown alumni headed to the Haskell. Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire, also won the Pegasus (gr. III), the main local prep for the Haskell June 2, defeating Concealed Identity, also back at Monmouth Park for the Haskell.
Trainer Bob Baffert, who won his fourth Haskell with Lookin at Lucky last year, is back with Coil, winner of the grade 3 Affirmed at Hollywood Park in June before being edged by longshot Dreamy Kid in the Swaps (gr. 2) July 9, also at Hollywood.

The Haskell may not have the prestige the Derby, Preakness and Belmont carry, but like the Jim Dandy, there is plenty of history to solidify the importance of Monmouth Park’s signature race. Rachel Alexandra (2009), Big Brown (2008), War Emblem (2002), Point Given (2001), Skip Away (1996), Holy Bull (’94), Bet Twice (’87) and Our Native (’73) are among the Haskell winners’ fraternity.

It is also that time of year when old faces from the Triple Crown and before begin to return while the boys of summer like Scotus, Coil and Dominus have a chance to show their talent against the bigger names.

I again am looking forward to one of my favorites weekends of racing.

Horse of the Year Race Slow After Six Months

Approaching the six-month mark in 2011 and nobody has a hint as to who might be Horse of the Year. There are plenty of possibilities with perhaps even more predictions, but at the half-way mark of this second or third year of the decade depending on how you look at it - nobody has come to the forefront in the run for the golden Eclipse Award.

Three different horses won the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), Preakness Stakes (gr. 1) and Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) for the second consecutive year and Derby winner Animal Kingdom is now out for the year with a slab fracture. There are no stars in the older horse ranks and for the first time in North American history, there are rumblings of three consecutive female Horse of the Year titles. Zenyatta was Horse of the Year last year and Rachel Alexandra took home the golden statue in 2009.

Preakness winners in recent years at least have some bling in their trophy cases giving Shackleford fans some hope. Since Derby winner Charismatic won Horse of the Year in 1999, (he also won the Preakness that year) three Preakness winners have been honored with the golden Eclipse Award. Preakness winners Point Given (2001), Curlin (2007) and Rachel Alexandra were all so honored without Kentucky Derby victories. The last Derby winner to garner Horse of the Year without a Preakness win was Spend A Buck in 1985.

Belmont winner Ruler on Ice also might have something going for him depending on your definition of asset. Although the Test of Champions has not produced the number of Horse of the Year winners in recent years, the three most contemporary Belmont winners to be named HOY were Point Given 10 years ago, A.P. Indy in 1992 and Conquistador Cielo 10 years before that. So if the Belmont Stakes continues its recent trend of producing a Horse of the Year every ten years or so, Ruler on Ice may be right on schedule. Which brings us back to the definition of asset.

Adding further optimism to the Shackleford and Ruler on Ice camps, Rachel Alexandra and Curlin also won only one Triple Crown race. Both won the Preakness and then showed what it takes for a 3-year-old to get Horse of the Year post Triple Crown.

Rachel Alexandra won the Mother Goose against fillies, the Haskell Invitational against colts again, and the Woodward against older horses to finish her 2009 campaign. All three of her year-end races were grade 1, at three different tracks and Rachel had zero losses on the year to boot.

Curlin wasn’t so accomplished losing the Belmont to Rags to Riches after his Preakness win. He was then third behind Any Given Sunday and Hard Spun in the Haskell. But Curlin hit his stride in his last two races defeating older horses in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1).

Not that any of the current 3-year-old males can’t make a late season run, but Curlin and Rachel Alexandra illustrate just how high that Horse of the Year bar has been set.

As in most years, the older horse division is most likely to produce the HOY but they too have struggled to produce a favorite. Donn Handicap winner Giant Oak has lost three straight since taking the division's first grade 1 race in January and Game On Dude, upset winner of the Santa Anita Handicap (gr. 1) in more ways than one, lost the grade 3 Lone Star Park Handicap to Awesome Gem in his next start. The other grade 1 race for older horses at a mile or more, the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs, produced long shot winner Pool Play, who returned $75.20 to his supporters that day.

Perhaps the front runners for Horse of the Year as June turns to July come from the ranks of the older fillies and mares. Havre de Grace may have the slight advantage in that division as the winner of three graded races this year including the prestigious Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. 1) at Oaklawn Park. A recent winner of the grade 3 Obeah Stakes at Delaware Park, Havre de Grace is on target for the grade 1 Delaware Handicap July 16.

Although a slow starter this year with three consecutive seconds in graded stakes, Blind Luck (photo above) remains the longtime nemesis of Havre de Grace in a rivalry that goes back to the Delaware Oaks (gr. 2) last year won by former. Havre de Grace has the edge this year, however, defeating Blind Luck in the Azeri Stakes (gr. 3) in March at Oaklawn. Blind Luck then came back to win the grade 2 La Troinne at Churchill Downs before recently defeating an accomplished group of fillies and mares in the grade I Vanity Handicap at Hollywood Park.

Meanwhile, Awesome Maria has gone undefeated in four races this year including winning the grade 1 Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park. Trainer Todd Pletcher has indicated that the grade I Ruffian at Saratoga may be the next start for Awesome Maria who was among the top 2-year-old fillies on the East coast last year.

Should a female win the Horse of the Year again this year after Rachel Alexandra in 2009 and Zenyatta last year, it will be the first time in the history of North American thoroughbred racing that females will have been named Horse of the Year in three consecutive years. Since the Horse of the Year was established in 1887, Twilight Tear and Busher in 1944-’45 respectively, were the only other females to win Horse of the Year in consecutive years, so the odds seem a little stacked against the ladies. There may not be another Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta in this group of older fillies and mares, but they do bring enough name recognition and industry credentials to be respected.

Perhaps todays male have some respect, but none of the colts, horses and geldings racing today have quite yet obtained the credentials of some of their female counterparts. This may not quite be Tea Leoni and David Duchonvy splitting up, but it is soon time for all to step up make some Horse of the Year waves.

Championship Path Can Skip Triple Crown Wins

With the less than star power talent of the thoroughbred colts and geldings class of 2011, it seems the times are ripe for perhaps a late season run by a non-winner of a Triple Crown race for year-end championship honors.

Three horses have been named the champion 3-year-old male in the last 30 years without winning the Kentucky Derby (gr. 1), Preakness (gr. 1) or Belmont Stakes (gr. 1). Tiznow was the most recent to take home the divisional eclipse award after going 0-for-triple crown in 2000 while Skip Away (photo left) in 1996 and Holy Bull two years earlier, also share the distinction.

Holy Bull was one of the early stars of the 1994 class chasing after the Kentucky Derby after going undefeated in three starts as a 2-year-old including a victory in the grade 1 Futurity. The big grey colt started 1994 just as hot, winning the grade 2 Hutchinson Stakes at Gulfstream Park keeping his record unblemished. The son of Great Above then had his first bad race in the Fountain of Youth, tiring badly to finish sixth, more than 24 lengths behind winner Dehere. But trainer Warren Croll bounced right back with Holy Bull, and won both the Florida Derby (gr. I) and Blue Grass (gr. 2) Stakes as they headed to Kentucky with jockey Mike Smith as the favorite.

But Holy Bull broke slow in the Kentucky Derby and he was never able to completely recover, finishing a well beaten twelfth behind Go For Gin. Croll then decided to rest Holy Bull and skipped they both the Preakness and Belmont.

But Holy Bull came back stronger than ever, winning the Metropolitan Handicap (gr. 1), Dwyer Stakes (gr. 2), Haskell Invitational (gr. 1), Travers (gr. 1) and Woodward (gr. 1) to end the year with a five-race winning streak and eight wins in ten starts. He also accumulated more than $2 million in earnings that year and was also named Horse of the Year for 1994.

Tiznow and Skip Away both started their championship years much more inconspicuously than Holy Bull. It took Tiznow three races to break his maiden as a 3-year-old in Southern California and Skip Away bled and was distanced in his first race as sophomore at Gulfstream Park.

Also unlike Holy Bull, Skip Away started in all three Triple Crown events after finishing third in the Florida Derby and winning the Blue Grass that year. He would go winless in the three races, however, finishing 12th in the Derby and second to both Louis Quartorze in the Preakness and Editor’s Note in the Belmont.

There would be no rest for Skip Away though, as he went to win the Ohio Derby (gr. 2) three weeks later before winning the Haskell Invitational and finishing third in the Travers behind Will's Way and Louis Quartorze. The son of Skip Trial then finished the year winning the Woodbine Million (gr. 1) and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) over the great Cigar.

After breaking his maiden at Hollywood Park May 31, it was already post Kentucky Derby and Preakness for Tiznow in 2000. But he would win the grade 2 Affirmed in his next race before a string of seconds against grade 1 company hit him in the Swaps and Pacific Classic against older horses. But Tiznow was not deterred and kept on rolling while winning the Super Derby (gr. 1) at Louisiana Downs and the Goodwood Handicap (gr. 1) back in Southern California. Trainer Jay Robbins put the son of Cee's Tizzy back on a plane and he soon at Churchill Downs defeating Giant’s Causeway to win his first Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) (photo right). Like Holy Bull in 1994, Tiznow concluded his year with the Championship 3-Year-Old Male trophy but the golden Horse of the Year Ecplise as well.

There are candidates for such a run in 2011 with Mucho Macho Man among the possibilities. Celebrating his real birthday (official birthday for thoroughbreds is Jan. 1) just this month, he is likely to continue to grow into his large frame and may excel on the track at the same time. He is the only non-winner of any of the Triple Crown races to start in all three this year finishing third in the Derby, sixth in the Preakness and seventh in the Belmont Stakes.

Belmont second and third-place finishers Stay Thirsty and Brilliant Speed respectively should be late season contenders with their late running styles that may have compromised them in the Belmont. Santiva, eighth in the Belmont Stakes, may be another late bloomer who will benefit running in races at much more conventional distances than the 1-1/2 mile Belmont Stakes.

There are some other possibilities for some earlier stars to return to racing after not making the Triple Crown. Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor and pre-Derby favorite Uncle Mo are considered likely to return. The Factor has been recovering from minor throat surgery and may start in the Aug. 27 King’s Bishop Stakes (gr. 1) at Saratoga while Uncle Mo continues to recover from a liver ailment that forced to be withdrawn from the Derby at the last hour. There may be another Tiznow out there as well that remains virtually anonymous for the first six months before exploding to success in the later part of 2011. One-time Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) favorite Jaycito may not be so under the radar, but certainly has the potential for late season success.

There are certainly plenty of big races left on the racing calendar dispite with the less informed racing fan might think. The Jim Dandy (gr. 2) and Travers are the big races for 3-year-olds at Saratoga and the Haskell Invitational likewise at Monmouth Park. There will be plenty of opportunities for sophomores to take on their older brethren in the Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup in the East and the Hollywood Gold Cup, Pacific Classic and Goodwood on the West Coast to name but a few.

There is no doubt that Derby winner Animal Kingdom, Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont champion Ruler On Ice all have a jump on the field in pursuing the Eclipse Award over all other 3-year-old colts and geldings. But they will likely have to win more than their respective Triple Crown jewels to remain in the race for the championship.

Standing By My Man

There is perhaps one basic question regarding the 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. Even though there is no Triple Crown winner to be crowned in the third jewel of the classic American series, the 1-1/2 mile Test of Champions has plenty of opportunity for definition in 2011. But will this crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds have a stand out - a divisional leader - Saturday evening.

Animal Kingdom, winner of the grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands but second in the Preakness to Shackleford, has perhaps the best chance at separating himself from his piers. He was a convincing winner at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May and came back to run a strong second to Shackleford in the Preakness. The son of Brazilian-bred sire Leroidesanimaux is also the only Belmont starter other than Shackleford with two wins this year. Animal Kingdom also won the Vinary Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) in March while Shackleford also won an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in early February.

Animal Kingdom has been given the respect as the 5-2 morning line favorite while Shackleford has been taken down a notch to 9-2 as the third choice behind Derby runner-up Nehro at 4-1 in the morning line. The thinking behind that might be that Shackleford had difficulty holding the lead In the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby which raises questions about him going a quarter-mile further. Nehro also skipped the Preakness after the Kentucky Derby, so he arrives in New York with some needed time off that Shackleford of which Shackleford and Animal Kingdom have not enjoyed.

Wednesday morning, one might have thought Shackleford would have a relatively easy time getting to the lead and setting a comfortable pace as he did in the Derby. However, the post position draw changed that assumption when the speedy son of Forestry drew the far outside 12 hole. Jockey Jesus Castanon will have plenty of time to negotiate where he wants to be with Shackleford going into the second turn of the vast sweeping Belmont main track, but both Prime Cut and Isn’t He Perfect have the inside track to the relatively short run to the first turn at the Big Sandy. Yes, Shackleford can rate as he did in winning the Preakness, but he will then have less control to establish a pedestrian pace he may desire.

None of the above make my top Belmont selection however, has I will remain true to a horse for which I am just waiting for his break out moment. I have supported Mucho Macho Man since his third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) in March – a race in which he ran most of with but three shoes. There was concern about the six-weeks between Louisiana and Kentucky, but it did not shake my resolution as I was sure the improvement without the naked hoof would be significant.

Mucho Macho Man finished a solid third in the Derby and I again speculated on improving Mucho Macho Man in the Preakness. Difficult to say a horse may have needed the Kentucky Derby after the six weeks, but my thinking was just that. But the shoe monster struck Mucho Macho Man again as he again threw a racing plate in the Preakness while finishing a disappointing sixth.

Mucho Macho Man has new glue-on shoes for the Belmont and just as important, will finally turn three-years-old (actually) four days after the Belmont Stakes on June 15. One would think that Mucho Macho Man is the beneficiary of added maturity that has bypassed others with earlier foaling dates. At 10-1, the Belmont is certainly no time to desert Mucho Macho Man at the windows.

Another horse at the attractive price of 10-1 also has my attention is Master of Hounds. In a case of the clock not defining actual speed, Master of Hounds looked to be making up considerable ground in the final 110 yards of the Kentucky Derby. He eventually ran out of ground coming from as far back as eight and three-quarters lengths and Master Hounds should be much closer in the Belmont Stakes if he can manage to repeat the running styles he showed when second in the UAE Derby (gr. II-UAE) in March. The England-to-Kentucky, Kentucky-to-England then England-to-New York itinerary has created some skepticism, but the cool front expected to hit New York Saturda and having trainer Aidan O’Brien erase much of that doubt.

Belmont Selections
1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Animal Kingdom
3. Master of Hounds

Belmont Trends Say Stay Close Early

With the post positions now set and the morning line made for the 143rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I) Saturday, handicappers and prognosticators can now get underway. But before speed figures are studied and past performances perused, perhaps defining what it takes to win the Belmont Stakes is in order. After all, with the 1-1/2 mile distance, the sandy Belmont main track, the wide sweeping turns and it place as the third leg of the grueling Triple Crown to name a few of the races nuances, the Belmont Stakes is among the most unique in North America.

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) winner Animal Kingdom has been installed as the morning line favorite with 5-to-2 odds. Unfortunately, being either the Derby winner or the favorite have not been so prosperous in the concrete jungle where dreams are made of.

In the last 30 years, only Swale in 1984 and Thunder Gulch 11 years later, have won both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. During that same span, seven others who won the Run for the Roses finished second – sometimes heartbreaking seconds – in the Belmont. Smarty Jones (2004), Real Quiet (1999), Silver Charm (’97) and Sunday Silence all finished second in the Belmont to end their bid for the Triple Crown. Pleasant Colony (’81), Alysheba (’87), Charismatic (’99),War Emblem ('02)and Big Brown (’08) were less dramatic in losing their Triple Crowns in the Belmont.

Favorites have not fared so well in the last three decades either. Only six favorites have won the last 30 runnings (20%) of the Belmont Stakes with the last being Afleet Alex in 2005. Other favorites to don the white carnations in the Belmont winners’ circle were Point Given (’01), Thunder Gulch, A.P. Indy (’92), Risen Star (’88) and Swale.

Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro has been assigned the role as second favorite in the morning line at 4-to-1. If Nehro goes to the gate in the Belmont as the second most popular among punters, he will have a considerable advantage, at least from a historical perspective, over the favorite. In the last 30 years, ten Belmont winners (30%) have gone off as the second choice In the wagering.

Although many wrongly assume that the 12 furlong Belmont plays into an advantage for closers, trainer Steve Asmussen may want jockey Corey Nakatani to repeat his strategy in the Kentucky Derby with Nehro. Previously a closer from as far back as tenth-place in earlier races, Nehro was sixth after the first half-mile of the Derby, but was just more than 3 lengths from the lead.

That seems to be the cat bird seat in the Belmont Stakes, or near that margin anyway. Looking back 30 years again, only five horses have won the Belmont virtually from gate to wire and seven others have won the race from 6-1/2 lengths off the lead or more after the first four furlongs. The other 18 winners raced from between a half-length to 3-1/2 lengths off the lead early in their victorious romps in New York.

It would not be smart to totally discount a front runner like Shackleford, however. With little competition for the front-runner position, Shackleford is likely to try to join the likes of Da’ Tara (2008), Touch Gold, Swale and Conquistador Cielo in 1982 as those who won after leading early in the Belmont. Touch Gold throws a bit of a monkey wrench into this analysis after his quirky 1997 victory in which he lead after a half-mile, then dropped back to fourth, before making another run to catch Silver Charm at the wire.

And not all speedsters are completely defeated by the long Belmont distance. Nine other front runners have held on to finish second or third in the last 30 years. In fact, in the last three years, the pace-setter has finished in the top two with First Dude and Dunkirk both finishing second last year and 2009 respectively; and Da’ Tara winning.

Preakness winners have had their challenges in the Belmont with only five winning the second and third jewels of the Triple Crown in the last 30 years including Afleet Alex (’05), Point Given (’01), Tobasco Cat (’94), Hansel (’91) and Risen Star.

Master of Hounds returns to the United States from his base in trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Britain after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby and returning to Europe. In the last 30 years, he will be the 11th invader to start in the Belmont Stakes after traveling to New York from abroad with only Go And Go winning in 1990. Others of note were Le Voyageur, third in the 1989 Belmont behind Easy Goer and Sunday Silence; and My Memoirs, second to A.P. Indy in 1992.

The history of the Belmont is as interesting and unique as the race itself and over the last 30 years some trends seem to have developed. Speed horses, obviously, do not win the Belmont with any regularity, but they stay in the top three more often than some might think. Closers seem to have their challenges as well while staying close to the pace seems to be the winning formula.

The race has certainly measured up to its moniker as the Test of Champions as ten of the last 30 winner’s have been recognized as the divisional champion at year’s end and 59 in all. It is a large field that has entered to run in the 2011 Belmont with 12 slated to start in one of the oldest races in North America. Whether this Belmont is to be won by Derby champion Animal Kingdom, invader Master of Hounds, Preakness winner Shackleford or any other, after the race, somebody will be under the bright lights of New York and all its fame and history.

Belmont Iconic Regardless of Triple Crown

Since Shackleford dug in on his left lead in the final strides of the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) two weeks ago, holding off Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom, we’ve known there will be no Triple Crown winner in 2011. It will be 33 years to the day Friday, since Affirmed and the young jockey Steve Cauthen captured the attention of America by holding off the nemisis Alydar by head to win the Belmont Stakes after taking the Derby and Preakness in 1978.

Therefor, the crowd at Belmont Park Saturday will not be as big as the crowd if Animal Kingdom had been going for the illustrious Triple Crown; and the television ratings probably won’t be as strong. The mediocrity of this group of thoroughbreds has also been concluded by those analysts who calculate such equine performance evaluations and not widely disputed by many outside the Beyers and Ragozins of the world.

But you have to give this 2011 class of 3-year-olds some credit – on many different fronts quite frankly. They have been a sound bunch compared to some classes in front of them. Arkansas Derby (gr. I) winner Archarcharch has been retired due to an injury he suffered in the Kentucky Derby, but most of the other 2008 3-year-old colt models are either still racing or in an extended pit stop.

In fact, the last three stars to leave the Triple Crown trail are all expected to return to the races. Premier Pegasus, scratched just days before going to the gate as the Santa Anita Derby (gr. I) favorite, is recovering from his surgery to repair a hair line fracture in his left front cannon bone and may return to the races this summer. San Vincente Stakes (gr. II) and Rebel Stakes (gr. II) winner The Factor is recovering from similar surgery and trainer Bob Baffert has said the August 27 Foxwood’s King’s Bishop Stakes(gr. I) at Saratoga is the target for the Arkansas Derby (gr. I) favorite. Uncle Mo, the champion 2-year-old male from last year and favorite to win the Derby for most of the winter, was scratched the day before the race not because of injury, but problems with his liver, (cholangeohepatitis for those scoring at home.) There is optimism that last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile (gr. I)winner will again race if efforts to treats his current condition succeed.

Having nineteen from a given class start in the Kentucky Derby is nothing special, but this group came right back and filled up the gate with 14 starting in the Preakness and there are 11 probable and three additional possible starters for the Belmont Stakes. That is partially due to a lack of an intimidating star, but as Jay Privman pointed out in his Daily Racing Form column, it may be the first time ever that the first seven finishers in the Kentucky Derby also start in the Belmont. As Privman also said, even if the top six finishers in the Derby start in the Belmont, it will be history. It has been since 1950 since the first five Derby finishers came back to run in the Belmont Stakes.

This group is not the most accomplished: there are only three 2011 stakes victories between Shackleford and Animal Kingdom and multiple graded stakes winners in the class since the first of the year can be counted on one hand. Long shot winners dominated the races leading up to the Triple Crown with the Florida Derby the only grade 1 race on dirt this year with a single digit win pay-off.

Even with no chance of a Triple Crown winner, both Animal Kingdom and Shackleford have an opportunity to join a fairly elite group that has won two legs of the Triple Crown and not the other. Only eleven horses have won the Kentucky Derby, lost in the Preakness, then won the Belmont. Coincidentally, eleven others have lost in the Derby, then come back to win the Preakness and Belmont. Seven others have won the Preakness and Belmont without running in the Kentucky Derby, but all of those were in 1922 and before when the Preakness was run before the Kentucky Derby.

The last to pull of the Derby-Belmont double was Thunder Gulch in 1995 with Swale (1984), Bold Forbes (’76), Chateaugay (’63), Needles (’56) and Zev (’23) among them as well. All were named champions in their respective years.

Among the eleven to win the Preakness and Belmont after losing the Derby, ten of those were named champions including Afleet Alex (2005), Point Given (’01), Hansel (1991), Risen Star (’88), Little Current (’74), Damascus (’67), Nashua (’55), Native Dancer (’53), Capot (’49) and Bimelech in 1940. Tabasco Cat in 1994 was the only member of that fraternity not to be named champion.

Certainly though, the Belmont Stakes is an iconic sporting event in North America regardless of a potential Triple Crown winner or not. Since the race was first run at Jerome Park in 1867, 59 of its winners have been named the champion 3-year-old colt or gelding of their respective years.

Three times, the Belmont Park crowd has exceeded 100,000 on-track fans with the largest crowd coming in 2004 when 120,139 came to watch Birdstone stop the Triple Crown bid of Smarty Jones. Large crowds of between 45,000 and 70,000 are typical on Belmont day.


The Belmont is also the oldest of the Triple Crown races predating the first Preakness (1873) by six years and the first Kentucky Derby (1875) by eight years. The Belmont Stakes is one of the oldest races in North America with the Phoenix Stakes at Keeneland (1831), the Queen’s Plate (1864) at Woodbine in Canada and the Travers Stakes (1864) at Saratoga older. However, the Belmont, which will be run for the 143rd time in 2011, is third to the Phoenix (159th running in 2011) and Queens Plate (152nd running in 2011) in total runnings. The Travers has had gaps in its history and its 142nd running will be in 2011.

For those reasons, the Belmont Stakes has plenty of history and prestige and the winner will be deserving of the all that comes with winning the American classic.

Rivalry Wishes

Now that we don’t have a Triple Crown winner for the thirty-third consecutive year, what can we hope for from this much maligned crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds?

One, we can hope for a rivalry to develop between Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) winner Animal Kingdom and Preakness (gr. I) winner Shackleford. It would be wonderful to see both come back in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I) at Belmont Park June 4. It would be better if the two hooked up at the top of the Belmont stretch and had a good old fashioned ding-dong battle to the wire.

To take our wish a little further, think how special it would be for the two to race together throughout the summer in say the Haskell Invitational (gr. I) at Monmouth in July, then on to the Travers Stakes (gr. I) at Saratoga in August. While we’re in the wishing mood, let’s add to the list the Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) and full circle back to Churchill Downs for the Breeders’ Cup World Championships.

But there are many things that will likely prevent our wish list from happening, not the least of which is owners who may not share our hopes. Animal Kingdom is instead owned by Team Valor International while Michael Lauffer and Bill Cubberdge own Shackleford.

Team Valor International is a syndicate of some 20 owners involved in Animal Kingdom. Controlling that syndicate is the sometimes controversial Barry Irwin, the long time proprietor of Team Valor International. Regardless of how much the racing industry needs stars (i.e. Kentucky Derby winners) to stay in the sport, there will be the lure of further riches in breeding shed for Animal Kingdom. Although his Brazilian/German pedigree may keep him on the track longer than if he had more popular bloodlines, there will be a point of marginal financial return in which Irwin will have to strongly consider the colt’s retirement, regardless of his soundness and/or success on the track.

That decision would not be based solely on greed either. Regardless of Irwin’s perception or lack of popularity among racing fans, he must responsibly answer to the many Team Valor folks who own a piece of Animal Kingdom. Team Valor International has been one of the most accomplished thoroughbred ownership syndicates in the world for more than 20 years. Irwin didn’t build that success by making a bunch of decisions based on emotion and popularity.

Lauffeer and Cubbedge on the other hand, are only responsible to themselves in making decisions about Shackleford. Should they decide to keep the colt on the race track, only injury can derail that plan. But in many ways, the two partners face the same dilemma as Irwin, regardless if they have intentions to keep the colt racing or not.

While Shackleford has more domestic bloodlines, his sire Forestry has had limited success after a decade in the stallion shed. If he doesn’t prove himself as a sire early, Shackleford may have some lean years later in his stud career. Still, with his Preakness credentials and speed, there will be plenty of money to be made during his early years in the stud shed. Of course, like all stallions, if Shackleford is successful producing runners such as himself, those lean years will never come.

Another obvious road block to a rivalry is the racing schedule. The Jim Dandy Stakes (gr. II) is the New York prep race for the Travers and is run at the same time as the Haskell. One camp could go to the Jim Dandy while the other runs in the Haskell.

Less prestigious Summer and Fall races like the West Virginia Derby, Pennsylvania Derby, Indiana Derby and Louisiana’s Super Derby are sometimes options for Triple Crown race winners as well. Management teams at tracks that host these minor derbies often contrive bonuses at the last minute, specifically targeting Derby, Preakness and/or Belmont winners.

But if both colts stay healthy and the breeding industry can wait, then there is no reason why a rivalry could not be born. The East Coast/West Coast barrier that kept Zenyatta and Rachel Alexandra apart during their racing careers does not exist between these two colts. Animal Kingdom trainer Graham Motion is stabled in Maryland during the summer while Dale Romans, trainer of Shackleford, is based at Churchill Downs giving both, easy access to the races in our dream schedule.


Now that we have come to the realization that there won’t be another Triple Crown winner in 2011, the best racing fans can hope for now from this crop of 3-year-olds is a rivalry. While neither Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom nor Preakness winner Shackleford have been confirmed for the Belmont Stakes, both camps have said the 1-1/2 mile Test of Champions is a possible next start for both.

Of course, like last year, a different horse could win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness and Belmont. That would not be optimal for rivalry wanting fans, but as long as Animal Kingdom and Shackleford are competitive, there is nothing wrong with a three-horse rivalry either. It’s just much more difficult keeping three horses on the same path for any extended period of time.

Schedules, injuries and the riches of the breeding shed can – and probably will – keep such a rivalry from developing. Or maybe the racing gods will bless the fans with such a wish. After all, they haven’t given us a Triple Crown winner since 1978. They kinda owe us a little something.

No More Debbie Downers for Shackleford

You have to give credit to trainer Dale Romans and owners Michael Lauffer and Bill Cubbedge. Yes, they deserve all the prestige and riches that come with winning an American sports classic like the Preakness Stakes (gr. I) with their Shackleford. But they should get some additional recognition for the tenacity and faith that they’ve shown through what has been a bumpy Winter and Spring campaign with Shackleford.

With each step leading up to the Triple Crown races, it seems that Romans, Lauffer and Cubbedge were plaqued by many in the racing media and gaming circles playing the role of 2000s Saturday Night Live character Debbie Downer. Rachel Dratch’s Debbie Downer was famous for adding negative comment to otherwise pleasant discussion, thus bringing down the mood of everyone. Of course her commentary was followed by the cartoonish muted trombone sound effect “wah! wa-a-a-a-ah.”

After Shackleford broke his maiden last November at Churchill Downs, Roman’s was giving hints of a potential horse the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Early this year, Shackleford was indeed listed on a few Kentucky Derby watch lists. But those were usually very long lists. The likes of Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve were on the short lists. “wah! wa-a-a-a-ah.”

Shackleford started the year winning an entry level allowance race at Gulfstream Park in the first week of February. It was a solid win over a good field and it was around two turns at 1-1/8 miles. But it wasn’t like winning the grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park a week earlier. “wah! wa-a-a-a-ah.”

Shackleford’s next race was a bust as he finished fifth, some 23 lengths behind winner Soldat in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. II). But Romans, Lauffer and Cubbedge stayed on plan with Shackleford and the Florida Derby (gr. I) would be next.

At odds of 68-1, jockey Jesus Castanon put Shackledford on the lead right from the start of the Florida Derby. It would be a position maintained until last few yards of the 1-1/8 mile Florida Derby as Holy Bull winner Dialed In hit the wire, just a head in front of second-place Shackleford. It was a dynamite performance by the long shot Shackleford.

The Debbie Downers, however, were quick to point out the main track had been beneficial to front runner all that day at Gulfstream Park. Shackleford and mearily benefited from the bias while Dialed In, a closer, had overcome it. “wah! wa-a-a-a-ah.”

And Shackleford would never get such an easy lead in the Kentucky Derby, usually run in not a fast pace, but more frantic during the early and middle parts of the race. “wah! wa-a-a-a-ah.”

But Castanon would hear nothing of the Debbie Downer’s criticism and put Shackleford on the lead in the Kentucky Derby. But he also slowed Shackleford to a pedestrian pace – in fact the slowest 1/1 mile in the Derby since 1947. Shackleford did not win the Kentucky Derby, but certainly ran a credible race, hanging on for fourth.

But again the Debbie Downers would say that the slow pace in the Derby was an anomaly and would surely not happen again in the Preakness. “wah! wa-a-a-a-ah.”

As if all of that wasn’t enough, in the moments just before the start of the Preakness, it appeared Shackleford was anything but ready for the race. He had become very hot while warming up for the Preakness and looked on edge before entering the starting gate. One final “wah! wa-a-a-a-ah.”

In the end, Shackleford was able to silence his critics with the Preakness victory, if only for a while. But in the Pimlico winner’s circle and on the infield podium where the Woodlawn Vase was presented to the winners – Debbie Downer and her trumpet where neither seen nor heard.

The Ins And Outs Of The Kentucky Derby

Getting an early start on any project can sometimes be the key definition between success and failure. “The early bird gets the worm” as the old saying goes. Trying to apply that benefit to betting on the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands – or horse betting on any other race for that matter – can sometimes add to confusion of an already challenging task. Because in horse racing, significant changes can happen in an instant while others seem to just come to the front under the circumstances and pressures of owning, training or riding a thoroughbred bound for the Kentucky Derby.

The conditions of the Kentucky Derby dictate that should more than the maximum 20 horses enter, graded stakes earnings will be used to determine those 20 horses eligible to run. Every year since 2004, the Kentucky Derby has overfilled at the entry box.

Last Saturday morning the cut-off for eligibility to enter the Derby belonged to 20th ranked Santiva and his $242,397. Trainer Aidan O’Brien had also confirmed from Europe that UAE Derby (gr. UAE2) runner-up Master of Hounds (photo) would be entered into the Kentucky Derby. That late decision pushed pushed Watch Me Go out of the Derby with his $235,500 in graded earnings.

There were two graded races for 3-year-olds run last weekend that had the potential to impact the graded earnings list – the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (gr. 3) at Keeneland and the grade 2 Jerome at Aqueduct. Despite the fact that both races had their respective grades, neither seems ideal for a last start before the Kentucky Derby. Both races were just a short two weeks away from the Derby. Horse of this calibre are accustomed to running more on a three or four-week cycle. Like the Blue Grass Stakes, also a Keeneland, the Lexington was run on the artificial Polytrack while the Derby is on natural dirt. And the Jerome was a one turn mile.

Champion trainer Steve Asmussen had horses in each race, but only Silver Medallion in the Lexington was believed to be headed to Kentucky. He also had Astrology in the Jerome, but had indicated to Churchill Downs officials that he was not likely to run in the Derby (though Astrology already had enough graded earnings to be ranked a comfortable 17th in graded earnings with his $281,893).

Silver Medallion, on the other hand, needed some help. His $184,397 was far enough below Santiva’s earnings, that Silver Medallion needed either the $120,000 winner’s check or the $40,000 second-place earnings to garner a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Silver Medallion ran fourth in the Blue Grass behind winner Derby Kitten and the $10,000 check did little ti help qualify for the Derby. Astrology, however ran a good second in the Jerome, spawning a case of Derby fever that co-owner George Bolton had to deal with. Perhaps it was just for a few moments in Bolton's mind or maybe even a day or two, but Astrology was possible for the Derby. That would have pushed Santiva out and Jaycito into the bottom spot with $250,000. That also pushed stable mate Silver Medallion all the way down to the 25th spot, pushing down hopes of Silver Medallion connections to make the Derby.

Asmussen received some good news that day that jockey Corey Nakatani had committed to riding Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) runner-up Nehro. Nakatani had also been riding Santa Anita Derby second, Comma to the Top but had chosen Nehro for the Derby. Comma to the Top trainer Gary Barber was prepared and quickly named jockey Pat Valenzuela to ride in Kentucky. Valenzuela won the 1989 Kentucky Derby aboard Sunday Silence.

Then Tuesday came and the defections began. As expected, J P’s Gusto was taken out of the Derby after finishing seventh in the Rebel (gr. 2) and eighth in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 1). Soon Bolton came with the expected news that Astrology would in fact, not run.

Santiva and Watch Me Go were back in the Derby. Then trainer Bob Baffert, who had just announced that Jaycito would not run, confirmed the same about Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor. The Factor had been recovering successfully from surgery to repair an entrapped epiglottis that was the likely cause of The Factor's dismal third in the Arkansas Derby. But the son of War Front was nowhere near ready to compete in the Kentucky Derby.

Suddenly, Shackleford and Twinspired are in the Kentucky Derby and the cutoff has gone all the way down to $197,500. That again takes us back to Silver Medallion, who now is on the bubble, ranked at 21st with his $194,334.

As soon as Twinspired gets the nod, jockey Robbie Alabardo is forced into a decision between the second-place finisher in the Blue Grass and Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) winner Animal Kingdom. Albarado chose Animal Kingdom leaving Twinspired trainer Mike Maker without a rider. Maker was ready and quickly named Mike Smith to ride Twinspired. Smith won the 2005 Kentucky Derby aboard Giacomo and was the regular rider for Horse of the Year Zenyatta more recently.

One conundrum that hits Kentucky Derby owners and trainers each year this time, is the opportunity to replace a regular, lesser-known, regional jockey with a nationally established rider for the Run for the Roses. Derby experience can be vital to a jockey who needs to negotiate through the 19 other horses and all the potential trouble thereof. But it's usually the local guy that rode all those races that got the horse to the big dance.

In 2009, Calvin Borel (photo left) picked up the mount on longshot Mine That Bird, who had made his last start in the then un-graded Sunland Derby. Casey Lambert, a stalwart rider in the Southwest for many years, had ridden Mine That Bird in his races at Sunland but had never ridden in the Kentucky Derby. Borel, who had won the Kentucky Derby on Street Sense two years earlier and was a regular rider at Churchill Downs, was given the mount on Mine That Bird and together they won the Derby.

This year, the Sunland Derby was a grade 3 and winner Twice The Appeal is in Kentucky with trainer Jeff Bonde. And like 2009, Borel takes the mount on the Sunland Derby horse while jockey Christian Santiago Reyes, while the 2009 champion apprentice in earnings, bowed out to the more experienced Borel.

The team behind Decisive Moment took the loyalty road with regard to their riding chores. Kerwin Clarke, a 52-year-old mainstay on the Louisiana circuit, picked up the mount on Decisive Moment because of his experience riding at Delta Downs in the Delta Downs Jackpot (gr. 3) last November. They finished second at Delta but won the ungraded Jean Lafitte the next race. Back in graded competition, Decisive Moment was fifth in the Risen Star (gr. 2) then second in the Spiral, but Saturday, owner Ruben Sierra announced that the 52-year-old Clarke – with former Derby winners such as Kent Desormeaux and Edgar Prado without mounts, would get the mount on Decisive Moment in the Kentucky Derby.

When J P’s Gusto was withdrawn from the Derby Tuesday, it marked the second time in three years that jockey Cliff Berry lost his first chance to ride the Kentucky in the days leading up to the race. In 2009, Berry was set to ride Rebel Stakes winner Win Willy in Kentucky before his was withdrawn in the final week. The 48-year-old Berry has been a leading rider in Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas in recent years and won the 2011 grade 1 Oaklawn Handicap this year with Win Willy.

Just in case you're now comfortable with the Kentucky Derby field, the last chance for more graded earnings comes a week before the Kentucky Derby when they run the Derby Trial (gr. 3) Saturday night at Churchill.

Florida Derby Confirms, Changes and Provides Hope For Kentucky Plans

Like ugly pitchers and pretty quarterbacks, everybody loves a late running thoroughbred and an emotional Nick Zito. Who can forget the raspy sounding Zito thanking God and everybody within reach after Strike the Gold won the 1991 Kentucky Derby. Well Dialed In gave horse racing both again Sunday afternoon at Gulfstream Park when he won the grade 1 Florida Derby narrowly over a stubborn Shackleford in second.

“This particular horse [Dialed In], I’ve become attached to," Zito said Monday at his barn at Palm Meadows Training Center. "I’ve had a lot of great horses, but with this particular horse there’s something about him, the horse’s courage, the way he is. More importantly, you’re not supposed to do what he’s done in his young career,“ Zito continued. “It’s almost impossible to do the things he’s done. You get emotional. He defies a speed favoring track – he defies it.”

Zito said Monday that he would not be shipping Dialed In to Kentucky anytime soon and would instead remain at the Palm Meadows Training Center in Florida for at least a few more weeks. But there is not doubt they are headed to Kentucky where Zito will be trying to win his third Run for the Roses. Zito won the Kentucky Derby in 1991 with Strike the Gold and again in 1994 with Go For Gin.

Shackleford, the Florida Derby runner-up at odds of 68-1, will be leaving for Kentucky a little sooner according to his trainer Dale Romans. The question for Shackleford will be whether his $212,000 will be enough graded stakes earnings to qualify for the Derby. Shackleford added the $200,000 second-place Florida Derby check to his previous $12,000 earned while finishing fifth in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) won by Soldat Feb. 26.

“We’ll see how everything shakes down and if the $212,000 will be good enough to get in,” Roman’s said Monday. “We won’t run him again. He’ll be pointed to the Derby and if doesn’t get in, we’ll give the Preakness a try.” Shackleford is currently ranked 20th on the list of graded stakes earnings by Kentucky Derby contenders. While that will be the final spot available to enter on May 4 for the Derby three days later, there are plenty of very rich graded stakes between now and the Kentucky Derby and that day. On the positive side for Shackleford, there are several horses ranked above the son of Forrestry that are questionable for the Kentucky Derby. The owners of Comma To The Top, currently sixth on the money list, have said the Kentucky Derby is not in their plans for the colt. Also ranked above Shackleford are three horses that finished well behind him in the Florida Derby.

Florida Derby favorite Soldat is ranked fifth on the list with $540,000 in graded earnings but was fifth in the Florida Derby, beaten more than 10 lengths by Dialed In. Florida Derby third-place finisher To Honor and Serve is ranked tenth with $350,000; and Stay Thirsty, seventh in the Florida Derby, has the 15th highest graded stakes earnings with $260,000.

“My gut tells me, ‘yeah, go on to the Kentucky Derby’” Kiaran McLaughlin, trainer of Soldat, said Monday. “You’ve got the earnings and [the Florida Derby was the] first race he wasn’t first or second. But I’ll have to talk to all the owners.” McLaughlin also said the 3-year-old son of War Front came out of the Florida Derby with no concerns.

Unlike Soldat, To Honor and Serve has not had a good race this year. In his only two races as a 3-year-old, To Honor and Serve has finished third, more than 6-1/2 lengths behind the winner, in both the Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth. Last year To Honor and Serve won the grade 2 Remsen Stakes at 1-1/8 miles over Mucho Macho Man but has yet to match that race as a sophomore. Bill Mott, his Hall of Fame trainer is also not one to be smitten over having a Kentucky Derby starter. In a training career that spans some 40 years, Mott has had only seven Kentucky Derby starters with Hold Me Back, 12th in 2009, as his most successful starter.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has not indicated as to whether Stay Thirsty will be heading to Kentucky for the Derby, but the odds are that he and owner Mike Repole will be looking elsewhere. Stay Thirsty was never a factor while finishing a well beaten sixth in the Florida Derby. Pletcher also trains Derby future book favorite Uncle Mo for Repole, so it not likely they will need Stay Thirsty to get to Churchill Downs for the Derby.

Whether To Honor and Serve, Soldat or Stay Thirsty head to Kentucky or not, one can be assured the list will change many times during the next four weeks leading up to the Derby. Millions of graded earnings have yet to be given away in New York, California, Illinois, Kentucky and Arkansas, so new names on the list of probable Kentucky Derby are likely to appear. Just as names fall of that list for various reasons as well.

Safe be it to say that the connections behind Shackleford will watch their colt fall of and return to the Derby list a few times in the next four weeks.