Standing By My Man

There is perhaps one basic question regarding the 143rd running of the Belmont Stakes (gr. 1) Saturday at Belmont Park in Elmont, New York. Even though there is no Triple Crown winner to be crowned in the third jewel of the classic American series, the 1-1/2 mile Test of Champions has plenty of opportunity for definition in 2011. But will this crop of 3-year-old thoroughbreds have a stand out - a divisional leader - Saturday evening.

Animal Kingdom, winner of the grade 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands but second in the Preakness to Shackleford, has perhaps the best chance at separating himself from his piers. He was a convincing winner at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May and came back to run a strong second to Shackleford in the Preakness. The son of Brazilian-bred sire Leroidesanimaux is also the only Belmont starter other than Shackleford with two wins this year. Animal Kingdom also won the Vinary Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. 3) in March while Shackleford also won an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in early February.

Animal Kingdom has been given the respect as the 5-2 morning line favorite while Shackleford has been taken down a notch to 9-2 as the third choice behind Derby runner-up Nehro at 4-1 in the morning line. The thinking behind that might be that Shackleford had difficulty holding the lead In the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby which raises questions about him going a quarter-mile further. Nehro also skipped the Preakness after the Kentucky Derby, so he arrives in New York with some needed time off that Shackleford of which Shackleford and Animal Kingdom have not enjoyed.

Wednesday morning, one might have thought Shackleford would have a relatively easy time getting to the lead and setting a comfortable pace as he did in the Derby. However, the post position draw changed that assumption when the speedy son of Forestry drew the far outside 12 hole. Jockey Jesus Castanon will have plenty of time to negotiate where he wants to be with Shackleford going into the second turn of the vast sweeping Belmont main track, but both Prime Cut and Isn’t He Perfect have the inside track to the relatively short run to the first turn at the Big Sandy. Yes, Shackleford can rate as he did in winning the Preakness, but he will then have less control to establish a pedestrian pace he may desire.

None of the above make my top Belmont selection however, has I will remain true to a horse for which I am just waiting for his break out moment. I have supported Mucho Macho Man since his third-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) in March – a race in which he ran most of with but three shoes. There was concern about the six-weeks between Louisiana and Kentucky, but it did not shake my resolution as I was sure the improvement without the naked hoof would be significant.

Mucho Macho Man finished a solid third in the Derby and I again speculated on improving Mucho Macho Man in the Preakness. Difficult to say a horse may have needed the Kentucky Derby after the six weeks, but my thinking was just that. But the shoe monster struck Mucho Macho Man again as he again threw a racing plate in the Preakness while finishing a disappointing sixth.

Mucho Macho Man has new glue-on shoes for the Belmont and just as important, will finally turn three-years-old (actually) four days after the Belmont Stakes on June 15. One would think that Mucho Macho Man is the beneficiary of added maturity that has bypassed others with earlier foaling dates. At 10-1, the Belmont is certainly no time to desert Mucho Macho Man at the windows.

Another horse at the attractive price of 10-1 also has my attention is Master of Hounds. In a case of the clock not defining actual speed, Master of Hounds looked to be making up considerable ground in the final 110 yards of the Kentucky Derby. He eventually ran out of ground coming from as far back as eight and three-quarters lengths and Master Hounds should be much closer in the Belmont Stakes if he can manage to repeat the running styles he showed when second in the UAE Derby (gr. II-UAE) in March. The England-to-Kentucky, Kentucky-to-England then England-to-New York itinerary has created some skepticism, but the cool front expected to hit New York Saturda and having trainer Aidan O’Brien erase much of that doubt.

Belmont Selections
1. Mucho Macho Man
2. Animal Kingdom
3. Master of Hounds

Belmont Trends Say Stay Close Early

With the post positions now set and the morning line made for the 143rd Belmont Stakes (gr. I) Saturday, handicappers and prognosticators can now get underway. But before speed figures are studied and past performances perused, perhaps defining what it takes to win the Belmont Stakes is in order. After all, with the 1-1/2 mile distance, the sandy Belmont main track, the wide sweeping turns and it place as the third leg of the grueling Triple Crown to name a few of the races nuances, the Belmont Stakes is among the most unique in North America.

Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) winner Animal Kingdom has been installed as the morning line favorite with 5-to-2 odds. Unfortunately, being either the Derby winner or the favorite have not been so prosperous in the concrete jungle where dreams are made of.

In the last 30 years, only Swale in 1984 and Thunder Gulch 11 years later, have won both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. During that same span, seven others who won the Run for the Roses finished second – sometimes heartbreaking seconds – in the Belmont. Smarty Jones (2004), Real Quiet (1999), Silver Charm (’97) and Sunday Silence all finished second in the Belmont to end their bid for the Triple Crown. Pleasant Colony (’81), Alysheba (’87), Charismatic (’99),War Emblem ('02)and Big Brown (’08) were less dramatic in losing their Triple Crowns in the Belmont.

Favorites have not fared so well in the last three decades either. Only six favorites have won the last 30 runnings (20%) of the Belmont Stakes with the last being Afleet Alex in 2005. Other favorites to don the white carnations in the Belmont winners’ circle were Point Given (’01), Thunder Gulch, A.P. Indy (’92), Risen Star (’88) and Swale.

Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro has been assigned the role as second favorite in the morning line at 4-to-1. If Nehro goes to the gate in the Belmont as the second most popular among punters, he will have a considerable advantage, at least from a historical perspective, over the favorite. In the last 30 years, ten Belmont winners (30%) have gone off as the second choice In the wagering.

Although many wrongly assume that the 12 furlong Belmont plays into an advantage for closers, trainer Steve Asmussen may want jockey Corey Nakatani to repeat his strategy in the Kentucky Derby with Nehro. Previously a closer from as far back as tenth-place in earlier races, Nehro was sixth after the first half-mile of the Derby, but was just more than 3 lengths from the lead.

That seems to be the cat bird seat in the Belmont Stakes, or near that margin anyway. Looking back 30 years again, only five horses have won the Belmont virtually from gate to wire and seven others have won the race from 6-1/2 lengths off the lead or more after the first four furlongs. The other 18 winners raced from between a half-length to 3-1/2 lengths off the lead early in their victorious romps in New York.

It would not be smart to totally discount a front runner like Shackleford, however. With little competition for the front-runner position, Shackleford is likely to try to join the likes of Da’ Tara (2008), Touch Gold, Swale and Conquistador Cielo in 1982 as those who won after leading early in the Belmont. Touch Gold throws a bit of a monkey wrench into this analysis after his quirky 1997 victory in which he lead after a half-mile, then dropped back to fourth, before making another run to catch Silver Charm at the wire.

And not all speedsters are completely defeated by the long Belmont distance. Nine other front runners have held on to finish second or third in the last 30 years. In fact, in the last three years, the pace-setter has finished in the top two with First Dude and Dunkirk both finishing second last year and 2009 respectively; and Da’ Tara winning.

Preakness winners have had their challenges in the Belmont with only five winning the second and third jewels of the Triple Crown in the last 30 years including Afleet Alex (’05), Point Given (’01), Tobasco Cat (’94), Hansel (’91) and Risen Star.

Master of Hounds returns to the United States from his base in trainer Aidan O’Brien’s stable in Britain after finishing sixth in the Kentucky Derby and returning to Europe. In the last 30 years, he will be the 11th invader to start in the Belmont Stakes after traveling to New York from abroad with only Go And Go winning in 1990. Others of note were Le Voyageur, third in the 1989 Belmont behind Easy Goer and Sunday Silence; and My Memoirs, second to A.P. Indy in 1992.

The history of the Belmont is as interesting and unique as the race itself and over the last 30 years some trends seem to have developed. Speed horses, obviously, do not win the Belmont with any regularity, but they stay in the top three more often than some might think. Closers seem to have their challenges as well while staying close to the pace seems to be the winning formula.

The race has certainly measured up to its moniker as the Test of Champions as ten of the last 30 winner’s have been recognized as the divisional champion at year’s end and 59 in all. It is a large field that has entered to run in the 2011 Belmont with 12 slated to start in one of the oldest races in North America. Whether this Belmont is to be won by Derby champion Animal Kingdom, invader Master of Hounds, Preakness winner Shackleford or any other, after the race, somebody will be under the bright lights of New York and all its fame and history.

The Brock Talk Kentucky Derby Picks

Its time to step up to the plate and swing away at the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Here’s my picks.

#13 – Mucho Macho Man: Has been among the most consistent and competitive this year while technically racing at a young age. While all thoroughbreds birthday is officially January 1, Mucho Macho Man wasn’t born until June. Which means he may be just primed to blossom. He finished fourth behind Dialed In in January, then won the Risen Star (gr. 3) in February before losing a shoe in the Louisiana Derby (gr. 2) and finishing third behind Pants On Fire and Nehro. Six-week lay-off is a concern but he has the speed and post position to negotiate away from most traffic and into contention at the top of the stretch.
#8 – Dialed In: There is much to like about the Florida Derby (gr. 1) winner who also won the Holy Bull (gr. 3) over Mucho Macho Man in January. Seemed to have an undisclosed hiccup in his training in February, but was impressive in winning the Fla. Derby on a track favoring speed. Will have to negotiate traffic around the far turn with his late kick, but a relatively clean trip and he will be very dangerous. Three of last four Kentucky Derby winners have trained at Palm Meadows during the winter where trainer Nick Zito had trained Dialed In until last week.
#19 – Nehro: Don’t worry about the post position because this Steve Asmussen trainee is a closer as well. Second in the Louisiana Derby after traffic problems then a hard charging second, just missing to Archarcharch in Arkansas Derby (gr. 1). Sire Mineshaft won two grade 1 races at this distance, so the 1-1/4 miles should not be a problem. Like other closer Dialed In, traffic may be the problem late while trying to pass tired horses and catch others doing much better on the front. Another son of Mineshaft, so he should have plenty in the tank down the long Churchill Downs stretch.
#1 – Archarcharch: Arkansas Derby (gr. 1) winner took it on the chin drawing the #1 post, but then got a little lucky with the closest speed horses (Decisive Moment) breaking from post five. So he should have time and room to pull back and let the wave hit the rail in front of him in first 1/2 mile. With luck, he’ll also be at the back of the pack early, but a more forward than Dialed In and Nehro. Also won the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3) at Oaklawn, but was still let go at 25-1 in the Ark. Derby. Should be a good price Saturday in Kentucky as well.

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Baffling Kentucky Derby Group Could Produce Some High Odds

As the Spring season of prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands comes to a close (it officially ends with the Derby Trial (gr. 3) at Churchill Downs, Saturday, before Apr. 30) it has been no secret that this group of 3-year-old thoroughbreds have been difficult to decipher and will be equally, if not more challenging to handicap on the first Saturday in May.

Dialed In will likely be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby this year and the win price may be even higher than some expect. Mike Watchmaker of Daily Racing Form currently has Dialed In as the favorite at 4-1 odds, just ahead of Uncle Mo at 6-1, Nehro at 8-1 and Toby’s Corner and Archarcharch at 10-1. There is also plenty of chat on Twitter, Facebook and other horse racing blogs and columns about the possibility that Dialed In may even go as high as 5-1.

I see no reason why the favorite this year can’t be as high as 6-1. The field is certainly befuddling enough with only Toby’s Corner and Dialed In among the probably Kentucky Derby starters with more than one victory in a graded prep race this year. Even those two were not the favorites in their respective last starts. Dialed In was the second choice at 2.90-1 behind favored Soldat at 1.5-1 in his Florida Derby victory and Toby’s Corner was the 8.70-1 second choice behind 1-10 Uncle Mo while winning the New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1).

The 4-1 mark also seems to be the natural over-under point for the Kentucky Derbies run since the field wagers were eliminated in 2001. Prior to that, wagering on the Run for the Roses was limited to 14 betting interests because of the technological limitations of that time. In the ten Kentucky Derbies since, the favorite has been below 4-1 five times and the above 4-1 five times.

Last year, Lookin at Lucky was the highest price favorite during that time at 6.30-1. His rough trips in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 2) at Oaklawn and the Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) combined with his number one post position in Kentucky, of course, contributed to the high price. But also remember that undefeated Barbaro was just a little more popular as the favorite in the 2006 Kentucky Derby at 6.10-1. 2002 Derby favorite Came Home was also 6-1 so having a Derby favorite with odds that high may not be such an anomaly - especially with as many as 20 betting interest in modern Kentucky Derbies.

The most popular horse in the last ten runnings of the Kentucky Derby was Point Given at 1.8-1 in 2001. With slightly less betting appeal were Big Brown in 2008 at 2.40-1; Empire Maker in 2003 at 2.50-1; and Bellamy Road in 2005 at 2.60-1. Empire Maker and Point Given were also in the only two Kentucky Derbies during that span with less than 18 wagering interests. There were 16 betting interests in 2003 and 17 in 2001.

Give credit where it is due to those four however. Point Given had romped through southern California’s San Felipe Stakes (gr. 2) and Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1). Bellamy Road came into the Derby off of a 14-1/2 length win the Wood Memorial while Empire Maker had won both the Florida Derby and Wood Memorial. Big Brown overcame a bad post position in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) breaking from the 12 gate, but still won easily by five lengths.

Uncle Mo was certainly on his way to that kind of popularity this year before his disappointing third-place finish in the Wood. He stumbled at the start and grabbed a front hoof in that race, but trainer Todd Pletcher said neither was an excuse. Two days later, it is determined that Uncle Mo had a gastrointestinal infection but again, there is no way of knowing if that affected his race in the Wood.

Horses like Archarcharch, Nehro, Toby's Corner, Mucho Macho Man and frankly, quite a few others also have a chance to take some unpredicted late action. Soldat certainly has the credentials to regain some respect in the weeks leading up to the Derby, just as prep race upset winners Midnight Interlude, Brilliant Speed and Pants on Fire have the opportunity to build on their races.

Regardless of the many excuses and reasons that have seemed to plague this group headed for the Kentucky Derby, it is almost certain that the post time favorite is going to be at a healthy price. Placing 4-1 odds on Dialed In seems perfectly reasonable to me, as it does many others opinionating throughout the social media circles and horse racing journals and papers.

But with the uncertainty that seems to follow these 3-year-olds, it would also not be too surprising to see the favorite as high as 6-1.

The Factor Fights Favorite Failures and More In Arkansas Derby

It has not been a good season for favorites in the grade 1 prep races leading up to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands.

Most notably, Uncle Mo finished third in Saturday’s Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial (gr. 1) Saturday at Aqueduct in what was described by track announcer Tom Durkin as the biggest upset since Secretariat. Further south, Soldat finished a dismal fifth as the 3-2 choice behind winner Dialed In in the Florida Derby (gr. 1) while the 2011 Santa Anita Derby (gr. 1) could easily borrow from a Saratoga moniker as the graveyard of favorites.

This year’s Santa Anita Derby lost not one, but three favorites. Morning line favorite Premier Pegasus was the first to be withdrawn after a hairline fracture was diagnosed just days before the race. The Bob Baffert-trained Jaycito took over as the favorite but a foot abscess forced him to be scratched on the Friday before the race. When the dust and scratches finally settled before the race, Silver Medallion inherited the roll of post time favorite but then finished fourth behind winner Midnight Interlude at 13-1.

In the world of logic and reality, those races and their upsets thereof, should have absolutely no impact on the Arkansas Derby this Saturday, one of the last two grade 1 prep races on the road to the Kentucky Derby along with the Toyota Bluegrass Stakes the same day at Keeneland.

Arkansas Derby morning line favorite The Factor, has enough challenges ahead of him on Saturday. A natural speedster who trainer Bob Baffert has likened to a runaway train, The Factor will likely have some company during the early stages of the Arkansas Derby - something he has not dealt with since his only loss, a race against maidens in his first start in November. The Todd Pletcher-trained Dance City has shown he likes the lead in winning a maiden and allowance race at Gulfstream Park racing on lead more often than not. Another from the Pletcher barn, Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) winner Brethren also likes to lead the pack from the start.

If by chance The Factor is unable to relax early and use up energy against the aforementioned front runners, there are several closers waiting in the wings.

The Steve Asmussen-trained Nehro was just a neck short of defeating Pants on Fire in the grade 2 Louisiana Derby while racing from a stalking position and having to fight for running room down the stretch. He also broke his maiden two starts back at Oaklawn, coming from as far back as 11th, some 12 lengths behind the winner, so the son of former Horse of the Year Mineshaft has repeatedly shown he can make a late move.

Another closer, Sway Away, may have bounced when running sixth behind The Factor in the Rebel Stakes (gr. 3), also at Oaklawn. A month earlier in Southern California, Sway Away’s late rally fell less than a length short of chatching The Factor in the seven furlong San Vincente.

Trip handicappers looking for an Arkansas Derby winner will be looking closely at Elite Alex. A son of 2005 Arkansas Derby winner Afleet Alex, the Tim Ritchie trainee was very wide in both the Louisiana Derby at Fairgrounds and the Southwest Stakes (gr. 3), races in which he was fourth and third respectively.

The final hurdle The Factor may have to overcome is that of genetics. I say “may” because we can only suspect that sons and daughters of The Factor’s sire, War Front, will have similar running tendancies and War Front was a solid, multiple, graded stakes winning sprinter. On the bottom side of The Factor’s pedigree, his dam is by Rubianno, a champion sprinter.

The folks at Claiborne Farm, home to War Front, have certainly had their celebrations and toasts to War Front during this, his first crop of 3-year-old runners. Other War Front get Soldat and Summer Soiree are both headed to Kentucky for Kentucky Derby week. Soldat for the Derby and Summer Soiree is headed for the Kentucky Oaks (gr. 1). Soldat won the 1-1/8 mile Fountain of Youth Stakes, so that works in The Factor’s favor in trying the same distance for the first time in the Arkansas Derby. But the genetic question remains and will get asked again should The Factor succeed in Hot Springs.

Based on other major Kentucky Derby prep races this year, one may suggest there is a cosmic influence that has so cursed the favorites. But even if the more sensible examine Saturday Arkansas Derby, it appears 7-5 morning line favorite The Factor has plenty of adversity – star alignment or not.