Kentucky Derby Bubble At $120,000

This week Churchill Downs released the current rankings of 3-year-olds by graded earnings, which determines which horses may enter the $2 million Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) to be run May 5.

No surprise that last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male Hansen sits atop the list with $1,160,000, of which $1,080,000 was earned when he captured the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs last November. In his first start of 2012 Hansen was second to Algorithms in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulfstream Park Jan. 29.

Second to Hansen in both the Juvenile and on the graded earnings list is Union Rags with $830,000 of which $360,000 was earned in the Juvenile and all earned last year as a 2-year-old. Sabercat is third on the list with the $600,000 he earned in the grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot run at Delta Downs in Louisiana, also run last November.

However, the most important slots on the graded earnings list are much further down where Battle Hardened, Brother Francis and the filly Disposablepleasure sit tied for 18th with $120,000 each in graded earnings. For it is those three horses and their respective earnings that currently define the amount needed to make the top 20. Twenty is the maximum number of starters allowed in the Run for the Roses.

The owners, trainers, jockeys and fans of all the 3-year-olds currently below the $120,000 mark should not fret too much however, as that number will change many times in the next 77 days before the Derby. Some of the horses currently in the top 20 will be forced out of contention due to injury while others may just not have the Kentucky Derby in their plans. Both instances would lower the $120,000 mark.

Two fillies, On Fire Baby and Disposablepleasure, are on the list and they have the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) as an option. There are also two foriegn-based horses on the list in Wrote and Genten. Wrote, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) at Churchill Downs, is based in Ireland with trainer Aidan O'Brien. O'Brien crossed the Atlantic many times last year with Cape Blanco and won the Eclipse Award for Champion Turf Horse in North America. O'Brien has started two horses in the Kentucky Derby. Johannesburg and Castle Gondolfo finished eighth and 12th respectively in the 2002 Derby. O'Brien has won six Breeders' Cup races over the years from more than 70 starters.

Trainer Yoshito Yahagi has Genten at his base in Japan and has never started a horse in either the Derby nor the Breeders' Cup.

There are some 31 graded races for 3-year-olds remaining before the Derby. That equates to some 150 opportunities to earn graded money, which of course, could drive up the $120,000 number.

Twenty horses have entered the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 and in 11 of the past 13 years. Interestingly, last year Derby Kitten was the last to qualify for the Derby with $120,000 but it took a record $218,750 for Make Music For Me to get into the Run for Roses two years ago. Over the last five years, the final horse to make the Derby field has averaged $132,750 in graded earnings.

Graded stakes are considered graded or group status as assigned to the race by the International Cataloguing Standards Committee in Part I of the International Cataloguing Standards as published by The Jockey Club Information Systems, Inc. each year.

In the case of a tie for the final entry position or the determination of all remaining starters, preference is given to horses that accumulated the highest earnings in non-restricted stakes races. If a tie still remains, the final spots in the starting gate will be determined by lot or a “shake.”

For the first time since 1984, there will be an “also eligible” list with as many as four horses eligible to draw into the field until scratch time on Friday, May 4 at 9 a.m. ET.

Top 32 Graded Stakes Earners
Rank, Horse, Graded Earnings, Trainer
Thru Sunday, Feb. 12, 2012
1. Hansen, $1,160,000, Mike Maker
2. Union Rags, $830,000, Michael Matz
3. Sabercat $600,000, Steve Asmussen
4. Wrote-IRE $556,630, Aidan O’Brien
5. Creative Cause $488,000, Mike Harrington
6. Liaison $375,000, Bob Baffert
7. Dullahan $375,000, Dale Romans
8. Excaper $240,736, Ian Black
9. Algorithms $240,000, Todd Pletcher
10. On Fire Baby (f) $211,729, Gary Hartlage
11. Drill $210,000, Bob Baffert
12. Alpha $180,000, Kiaran McLaughlin
13. Rousing Sermon $164,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
14. Prospective $155,452, Mark Casse
15. I’ll Have Another $151,000, Doug O’Neill
16. Currency Swap $150,000, Teresa Pompay
17. Genten $123,826, Yoshito Yahagi
t-18. Battle Hardened $120,000, Eddie Kenneally
t-18. Brother Francis $120,000, Jim Cassidy
t-18. Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000, Todd Pletcher
21. Mr. Bowling $115,848, Larry Jones
22. Jack’s in the Deck $105,000, Robin Graham
23. Gemologist $103,855, Todd Pletcher
24. Longview Drive $102,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
25. Fly Lexis Fly $99,481, Neil Drysdale
26. Take Charge Indy $98,400, Pat Byrne
27. Daddy Long Legs $94,030, Aidan O’Brien
28. Red Duke $90,823 Maxilead Ltd. John Quinn
t-29. Overdriven $90,000, Todd Pletcher
t-29. Reneesgotzip (f) $90,000, Peter Miller
t-29. State of Play $90,000, Graham Motion
t-29. Thunder Moccasin $90,000, Todd Pletcher

Flat Out, Jackson Bend Make 2012 Debuts at Gulfstream Park

Three years ago this weekend, trainer Charles “Scotter” Dickey won the $50,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park with a promising 3-year-old son of Flatter for owner Art Preston’s Preston Stables LLC. It was a solid three and-a-half length victory for Flat Out in only his third career start and enough to put him on the road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). But feet ailments would soon begin to plague Flat Out and during a sixth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 2) in April, a fractured shoulder was added to the colt’s injury list, ending the colt's chances to go to Kentucky for the Run for the Roses.

Disappointed but not discouraged, Dickey and Preston did not retire Flat Out, but put him on a 20-month rehabilitation that resulted in a successful return to the races in December of 2010, winning an optional claiming race at Fairgrounds. Still battling for a full recovery, it would be six months again before his next start, a second place finish to Awesome Gem in the Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III) last May. But that was just the beginning of a year that ended with wins in the grade 2 Suburban Handicap and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) at Belmont Park, seconds in both the Whitney Handicap (gr. I) and Woodward (gr. I) at Saratoga and perhaps the top older handicap horse in North America.

Flat Out ended the year with a disappointing sixth place finish behind winner Drosselmeyer in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs in November and earned some time off for some well deserved rest. But there would be no more long rehabilitation.

Apparently Dickey figures Flat Out has missed enough racing in his career because they start 2012 quickly with his turf debut Saturday in the $100,000 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (gr. 3T) at Gulfstream Park. The 1-1/16-mile Ft. Lauderdale will be the turf debut for Flat Out against eleven others that include grade 1 winner Teaks North and European group I winner Mutual Trust.

“We worked him on the turf here and decided on this race for a combination of reasons,” Dickey said Wednesday morning. “We still want to try him on the turf and the timing is right to get to the Donn Handicap (gr. I). If we waited and ran him in the Sunshine Millions (Classic on Jan. 28) it would probably be too quick back to make the Donn (Feb. 11).”

The Saturday card at Gulfstream Park also features the grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes at one mile for older horses where the popular Jackson Bend makes his first start of the year. Trained by Nick Zito, the Florida-bred Jackson Bend was last seen finishing third to Amazombie in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I) in November. Before that he was second to Uncle Mo in the grade 2 Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park and he won the grade 1 Forego at Saratoga at seven furlongs.

The Hal’s Hope has drawn a field of nine that also includes Successful Mission and Soaring Empire, both stakes winners at Monmouth Park in New Jersey in their last starts. Successful Mission is making his first start since winning the $77,000 Elkwood Stakes in May and Soaring Empire returns after winning the $100,000 Majestic Light Stakes in late July.

Filly On Fire Baby Challenges Colts in Smarty Jones
Returning to the Smarty Jones Stakes, the 2012 version runs during a special opening weekend Monday card at Oaklawn Park and is the first in a series of races for sophomores leading up to the grade I Arkansas Derby in April then Kentucky Derby in May. The $100,000 Smarty Jones this year is likely to feature the filly On Fire Baby taking on the boys in an interesting early Derby story line. Trained by Gary Hartlage, On Fire Baby won the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II) and Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs last Fall against fillies.

Trainer Gary Hartlage talking about On Fire Baby

Further west, early action on the Derby trail gets under way in the $100,000 California Derby Saturday at Golden Gate Fields near San Francisco where trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has two contenders. Hollendorfer will saddle Russian Greek, winner of the Dec. 10 Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate; and maiden race winner Reconstruction.

The California Derby will also include Southern California invader Hodge, third in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) in November; Blacky the Bull and Cahill Chrome, third and fourth respectively in the Gold Rush. The California Derby is the local prep race for the grade 3 El Camino Real Derby in February.