Kentucky Derby Bubble At $120,000

This week Churchill Downs released the current rankings of 3-year-olds by graded earnings, which determines which horses may enter the $2 million Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) to be run May 5.

No surprise that last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male Hansen sits atop the list with $1,160,000, of which $1,080,000 was earned when he captured the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs last November. In his first start of 2012 Hansen was second to Algorithms in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulfstream Park Jan. 29.

Second to Hansen in both the Juvenile and on the graded earnings list is Union Rags with $830,000 of which $360,000 was earned in the Juvenile and all earned last year as a 2-year-old. Sabercat is third on the list with the $600,000 he earned in the grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot run at Delta Downs in Louisiana, also run last November.

However, the most important slots on the graded earnings list are much further down where Battle Hardened, Brother Francis and the filly Disposablepleasure sit tied for 18th with $120,000 each in graded earnings. For it is those three horses and their respective earnings that currently define the amount needed to make the top 20. Twenty is the maximum number of starters allowed in the Run for the Roses.

The owners, trainers, jockeys and fans of all the 3-year-olds currently below the $120,000 mark should not fret too much however, as that number will change many times in the next 77 days before the Derby. Some of the horses currently in the top 20 will be forced out of contention due to injury while others may just not have the Kentucky Derby in their plans. Both instances would lower the $120,000 mark.

Two fillies, On Fire Baby and Disposablepleasure, are on the list and they have the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) as an option. There are also two foriegn-based horses on the list in Wrote and Genten. Wrote, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) at Churchill Downs, is based in Ireland with trainer Aidan O'Brien. O'Brien crossed the Atlantic many times last year with Cape Blanco and won the Eclipse Award for Champion Turf Horse in North America. O'Brien has started two horses in the Kentucky Derby. Johannesburg and Castle Gondolfo finished eighth and 12th respectively in the 2002 Derby. O'Brien has won six Breeders' Cup races over the years from more than 70 starters.

Trainer Yoshito Yahagi has Genten at his base in Japan and has never started a horse in either the Derby nor the Breeders' Cup.

There are some 31 graded races for 3-year-olds remaining before the Derby. That equates to some 150 opportunities to earn graded money, which of course, could drive up the $120,000 number.

Twenty horses have entered the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 and in 11 of the past 13 years. Interestingly, last year Derby Kitten was the last to qualify for the Derby with $120,000 but it took a record $218,750 for Make Music For Me to get into the Run for Roses two years ago. Over the last five years, the final horse to make the Derby field has averaged $132,750 in graded earnings.

Graded stakes are considered graded or group status as assigned to the race by the International Cataloguing Standards Committee in Part I of the International Cataloguing Standards as published by The Jockey Club Information Systems, Inc. each year.

In the case of a tie for the final entry position or the determination of all remaining starters, preference is given to horses that accumulated the highest earnings in non-restricted stakes races. If a tie still remains, the final spots in the starting gate will be determined by lot or a “shake.”

For the first time since 1984, there will be an “also eligible” list with as many as four horses eligible to draw into the field until scratch time on Friday, May 4 at 9 a.m. ET.

Top 32 Graded Stakes Earners
Rank, Horse, Graded Earnings, Trainer
Thru Sunday, Feb. 12, 2012
1. Hansen, $1,160,000, Mike Maker
2. Union Rags, $830,000, Michael Matz
3. Sabercat $600,000, Steve Asmussen
4. Wrote-IRE $556,630, Aidan O’Brien
5. Creative Cause $488,000, Mike Harrington
6. Liaison $375,000, Bob Baffert
7. Dullahan $375,000, Dale Romans
8. Excaper $240,736, Ian Black
9. Algorithms $240,000, Todd Pletcher
10. On Fire Baby (f) $211,729, Gary Hartlage
11. Drill $210,000, Bob Baffert
12. Alpha $180,000, Kiaran McLaughlin
13. Rousing Sermon $164,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
14. Prospective $155,452, Mark Casse
15. I’ll Have Another $151,000, Doug O’Neill
16. Currency Swap $150,000, Teresa Pompay
17. Genten $123,826, Yoshito Yahagi
t-18. Battle Hardened $120,000, Eddie Kenneally
t-18. Brother Francis $120,000, Jim Cassidy
t-18. Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000, Todd Pletcher
21. Mr. Bowling $115,848, Larry Jones
22. Jack’s in the Deck $105,000, Robin Graham
23. Gemologist $103,855, Todd Pletcher
24. Longview Drive $102,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
25. Fly Lexis Fly $99,481, Neil Drysdale
26. Take Charge Indy $98,400, Pat Byrne
27. Daddy Long Legs $94,030, Aidan O’Brien
28. Red Duke $90,823 Maxilead Ltd. John Quinn
t-29. Overdriven $90,000, Todd Pletcher
t-29. Reneesgotzip (f) $90,000, Peter Miller
t-29. State of Play $90,000, Graham Motion
t-29. Thunder Moccasin $90,000, Todd Pletcher

Despite Training Trends, Holy Bull Remains Important Step On Kentucky Derby Trail

A couple of things about the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) from an historical point of view may help put this weekend’s early Derby prep into perspective. The $400,000 Holy Bull will be run Sunday at Gulfstream Park with a field of six going the one-turn mile. The lead story line for this year’s Holy Bull Stakes is the 2012 debut of Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) winner and champion 2-year-old male Hansen (photo right).

Even if Hansen is successful in his debut, there have been few Holy Bull winners who also went on to don the blanket of roses in the winners’ circle of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1). The only Holy Bull winners to also win the Kentucky Derby later were Barbaro in 2006 (photo below left) and Go For Gin in 1994 but others have faired well enough at Churchill Downs.

First run in 1990 as The Preview Stakes, the Holy Bull was created to replace the Flamingo Stakes that had been run at then closed Hialeah race track. The Holy Bull has been run at three different distances in its more than 20-year history, going as far as 1-1/8 miles, to 1-1/16 miles, to its current distance of one mile in various orders and years.

The shortened distance makes the Holy Bull perhaps a more attractive prep race for horses that are considering the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown and need or want at least three starts to prepare for and attempt to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The Holy Bull is part of a series of graded races at Gulfstream Park for 3-year-olds that also includes the Feb. 26 Fountain of Youth (gr. II) at 1-1/16 miles and the 1-1/8 mile Florida Derby (gr. 1) on Mar. 31. This year the Kentucky Derby will be run May 5.

The 2011 Holy Bull Stakes produced two eventual Kentucky Derby starters in Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Dialed In gave trainer Nick Zito his record third victory in the Holy Bull Stakes last year (along with Go For Gin and Suave Prospect in 1995). Dialed In later won the Florida Derby last year before finishing a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby.

Third in last year’s Holy Bull, Mucho Macho Man would go on to also run third in the Kentucky Derby and join Animal Kingdom and Shackleford as the only horses to start in all three Triple Crown races last year. Mucho Macho Man was sixth in the Preakness (gr. I) and seventh in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).

West Side Bernie, third in the 2009 Holy Bull Stakes; and Homeboy Kris, third a year later in the Holy Bull, would both make the Kentucky Derby but neither fared well in their Run for the Roses. West Side Bernie was ninth behind Mine That Bird and Homeboy Kris was 16th in the Derby won by Super Saver.

Until last year when two Holy Bull starters made it the Kentucky Derby, the Holy Bull has not had a strong connection to the Derby. Recent Derby winning horsemen have leaned toward starting their promising sophomores only twice before the Kentucky Derby and closer to the race than the late January Holy Bull. Of the last five Kentucky Derby winners since Barbaro, all started in only two Kentucky Derby prep races with only Mine That Bird starting as early as February. The 2009 Derby winner began his 3-year-old year running second in the $100,000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park on Feb. 28.

Animal Kingdom last year, Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008) and Street Sense (2007) all made their first starts of their respective years in March preceding their Kentucky Derby wins.

Despite being the expected heavy favorite, a victory in Sunday’s Holy Bull is certainly not a necessity for Hansen. His winner’s check of $600,000 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile insures him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate if he can stay sound and competitive. The Derby is limited to 20 starters with earnings in graded races used to determine the eligible entrants. But the competition only gets tougher as the Derby draws near and it is doubtful that trainer Mike Maker and owners Dr. Hansen Kendall and Sky Chai Racing want to go to Louisville based only on last year’s accomplishments.

A victory in the Holy Bull would be much more impactful for any of the other five starters, of which none have any graded earnings. The $240,000 first-place check in the Holy Bull would place any of the other five in the top ten on the current list of 3-year-olds with graded earnings and likely enough to eventually qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Currently $105,000 in graded earnings makes the top 20, but that is likely to be a very fluid number during the next three months before those Derby slots are awarded.

Second and third-place checks of $80,000 and $40,000 in the Holy Bull respectively will leave plenty of work for those starting this race with a zero balance in their graded stakes bankrolls – but every little bit may help. West Side Bernie, Homeboy Kris and Mucho Macho Man have proven that a third in the late January Holy Bull does not qualify nor disqualify one from making it to Kentucky for the first Saturday in May.

If nothing else, a good performance in the Holy Bull Sunday remains important in creative rose colored hopeds for these six 3-year-olds, their connections and their quest to make it the prestigious Kentucky Derby.

Hansen Gets Rodney Treatment For An Eclipse Champion

Despite his victory in the prestigious Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Monday night being honored with an Eclipse Award as Champion Two-Year-Old Male, one would think Hansen (photo right) returns to training this year among a wave of popularity. After all, his eventual task now is to carry that success to Churchill Downs in May and win America’s most prestigious race, the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). Nothing in January insures victory in May of course, but with all of the accolades, one would think the reigning champ would at least be the favorite for the Derby.

Not so fast say the future book odds-makers.

Despite his last two significant accomplishments, the son of the successful young sire Tapit is not among the top three choices to the Kentucky Derby according to the Derby future book on gohorsebetting.com. The on-line betting service has Breeders’ Cup runner-up Union Rags as the favorite at 10-1 with Algorithms and Liason both second choice at 12-1. Hansen is co-fourth choice at 15-1 with Alpha. That’s right: Hansen can’t even eek out solo position for fourth choice in the wagering circles.

After a brief break, Hansen has returned to trainer Mike Maker’s barn at Gulfstream Park in Florida where he is expected to make his 2012 debut in a stake race there according to reports.

However, owner Dr. Kendall Hansen has indicated that the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) in late March at Turfway Park in northern Kentucky is the eventual planned Kentucky Derby prep race. Hansen broke his maiden and won the $95,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway in 2011 before winning the prestigious Juvenile. Last year, Animal Kingdom used his victory in the Spiral Stakes as his final race before also winning the Kentucky Derby.

Union Rags was also the heavy post time favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with near even odds and an undefeated record at the time from three starts. Trained by Michael Matz who won the 2006 Kentucky Derby with the ill-fated Barbaro, Union Rags won the Saratoga Special and one mile Champagne Stakes as a 2-year-old but will need to prove he can handle the longer races leading up to and including the Triple Crown. A son of Dixie Union and out of the Gone West mare Tempo, Union Rags is currently the 10-1 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

Algorithms is from the large group of potential Derby horses trained by 2011 Eclipse Award nominee Todd Pletcher and is also one of many sons of the popular and productive young sire Bernardini. Although he has no stakes wins to his credit, Algorithms is undefeated in two races including a maiden win in June and then an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park in December, defeating fellow Bernardini son and Derby hopeful Consortium trained by Kairan McLaughlin.


Liason is another in a line of Indian Charlie sons trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. After losing his first start in a one mile allowance race at Del Mar in early September, Liason has won three straight including the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes and grade 1 CashCall Futurity, both 1-1/16 mile races at Hollywood Park in the late Fall.


Along with Hansen at 15-1 in the gohorsebetting future line is Alpha, also by Bernardini. Another trained by McLaughlin, Alpha is one of the first winners on this year’s trail to the Kentucky Derby, taking Aqueduct’s Count Fleet Stakes Jan. 7.

As a 2-year-old, Alpha garnered some attention finishing second to Union Rags in the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. While not among the favorites in the Juvenile, Alpha compromised his chances before the start of the Juvenile by being fractious in the gate. Alpha still broke well and raced into early competition down the backstretch in the Juvenile, but when the serious running started, Alpha didn’t and eventually finished 11th.


It is still 108 days before the Kentucky Derby which is an eternity for trainers trying to get their horses to the Run for the Roses. And the odds-makers nor their probabilities have any influence as to who will be wearing the blanket of roses at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Like a college football coach ranked number one in preseason polls, Maker and Dr. Hansen will probably tell you they prefer not to wear that extra target on their back as Hansen the thoroughbred begins his sophomore campaign and trip down the trail to Kentucky and beyond.

But for a champion, they they must feel a little too much like a Rodney for a Hansen.

CashCall Stars Can Emerge From Long Shadows Cast by Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Our last look into the 2011 chrystal ball that is next year’s road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands presents itself Saturday in the $750,000 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park. Run in the shadow of the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, the CashCall Futurity has neither the $1 million purse nor history of producing divisional champions like the more prestigious Juvenile, but they are both grade 1 and their winners have donned an equal number of rose blankets – one each. Street Sense is the only horse to win both Juvenile (2006) and Kentucky Derby (’07) while Real Quiet won the 1997 CashCall and the Derby the following year.

Both races are also run at distance of 1-1/16 miles.

Championship voters don’t seem to emphasized the similarities between the two races however, and have given the Juvenile significantly more weight in determining their selections. For disclosure, I agree the Juvenile should have greater importance than other grade 1 races in determining the year-end champion. If the industry is going to call the Breeders’ Cup a World Championship, they (we) need to treat it like one. The Eclipse Award voters have that well since the Breedeer Cup first ran some 27 years ago.

Since the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile was first won by Chief’s Crown in 1984, 20 winners have been named Champion Two-Year-Old Colt or Gelding for that year. Since Roving Boy won the CashCall (then Hollywood Futurity) in 1982 and the corresponding divisional championship, only CashCall winners Declan’s Moon and Looking at Lucky have been honored with Eclipse Awards. The four others named divisional champions during that 27-year span without winning either the CashCall nor the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile were Forty Niner (1987), Easy Goer (1988), Dehere (1993) and Maria’s Mon (1995). All four were named 2-year-old male champions after winning their respective Champagne Stakes in New York but losing or not running in the Juvenile.

Forty Niner, Maria Mon’s and Declan’s Moon were champions that did not start in the Breeders’ Cup while Looking at Lucky, Dehere and Easy Goer won the divisional honor after losing in the Breeders’ Cup. Looking at Lucky and Easy Goer were second to long shot Vale of York and Is It True in 1988 and 2009 Juveniles respectively. Dehere was eighth as the odds-on favorite in the 1987 Juvenile won by Success Express before winning his 2-year-old male championship.

What makes the CashCall of more interest is the annual participation and sometimes domination by three-time Derby winning trainer and Hall of Famer Bob Baffert. Baffert has won two of the last three CashCall Futurities and a record five total. Known as the other silver-haired fox from

Arizona (former University of Arizona basketball coach Lute Olsen being the first white-haired legend from the Grand Canyon State), Baffert has won the CashCall with Real Quiet, Captain Steve (1999), Point Given (2000) (photo left), Poineerof the Nile (‘08) and Looking at Lucky.

Also adding to the uniqueness of the CashCall is the artificial Cushion Track material that makes up the main track at Hollywood Park. Last year, Comma to the Top made the CashCall his fifth-straight win, but all were on artificial main tracks or grass. In his first race on natural dirt, Comma to the Top came back to run second in the Santa Anita Derby and then last in the Kentucky Derby, also on dirt. Looking at Lucky would eventually win the Preakness and then repeat as the division champion and show he could run on natural dir and Pioneerof the Nile was second on natural dirt in the Kentucky Derby.

Now, Santa Anita will have their natural dirt for the second time for their winter prep races leading up to the Derby, so any natural dirt-challenged winner of the CashCall will now likely be exposed sooner or prepare the Kentucky Derby over the PolyTrack surfaces at Turfway Park and/ or Keeneland. (see 2010 Derby winner Animal Kingdom.) Any plans to take the Southern California, New York, Arkansas, Florida or Louisiana roads to Kentucky, mean running on natural dirt.

According to Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen, Baffert will again be loaded for the CashCall with three 2-year-olds set for the 1-1/16-mile race. Del Mar Futurity winner Drill will try to return to the winners’ circle after graded stakes loses in the Norfolk, Juvenile and Delta Jackpot. Maiden winner Sky Kingdom and Real Quiet Stakes winner Liason will also be saddled by Baffert in this CashCall Futurity.

Not sure other CashCall contenders Basmati and Longview Drive, the place and show horses in the Delta Jackpot in their last start, don’t appear to have enough credentials for the championship, even with a big performance in the CashCall.

No matter, the CashCall winner is sure to move up near the top of many Kentucky Derby 2012 lists of contenders. Winter Future Books will be adjusted and for some, rosy dreams will begin to bloom for others. Regardless of who gets honored with the 2-year-old male title, it will be the Derby that holds all the glamour and history and the CashCall Futurity is more than a month closer than its Breeders’ Cup brother-race. The CashCall Futurity now crawls from beneath the long shadow cast by the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and at least one shining star will emerge and walk into the Hollywood Park winners’ circle Saturday.

Then on to the road that may lead to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Kentucky Derby Conditions Help Wrong Horses Qualify

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is in the books and with it, the $1,080,000 in graded earnings that went to the winner, Hansen (inside horse photo right). Favorite Union Rags missed catching Hansen by just a head in the Juvenile, but still pulled down $360,000 for finishing second and pushing him over $800,000 in graded earnings - or money won in America’s most significant races for 2-year-olds. Graded earnings are not so significant now; for Hansen and Union Rags the differences are small anyway. For horses at this level in their 2-year-old career, graded earnings often only eliminate the $30,000 or so made in the maiden ranks.

Graded earnings become more important when planning for the 2012 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. And when a horse has enough graded earnings to qualify for the Derby by the preceding new year, it makes those plans much, much less stressful.

In the case that more than 20 horses want to enter the Kentucky Derby, the conditions of the race give preference to those with the most earnings in graded races. At least twenty horses have entered the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 with it taking an average of $128,708 to make the entry box over the last six years.

Six months ago, Derby Kitten was the last “bubble” horse to get into the Derby with $120,000. Eventual Preakness winner Shackleford was also one of the final qualifiers for the 2011 Kentucky Derby with $212,000 in graded earnings at entry time. Nowhere to Hide made it into the Derby starting gate with the least graded earnings ($55,500 in 2009) while it took Make Music For Me a record $218,750 to enter in 2010. The Kentucky Derby has been limited to 20 starters since 1975.


Granted, the Derby is still seven months away and the graded earnings list may not be as popular in the water cooler circles as March Madness Basketball brackets or Super Bowl office pools that feature the over/under on how long it takes to sing the National Anthem; but the graded earnings list will be widely followed by racing fans before the first Saturday in May of 2012 arrives.

Whether graded earnings is the best qualifier for a Kentucky Derby field has been the topic of much debate since they were first used to determine the Derby field in 1986. Under particular fire is the rationale behind using performances from horse’s 2-year-old seasons to determine who qualifies for the Derby, run one-third of the way into a horse's 3-year-old campaign.

It is puzzling that the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is so influential on Derby qualifiers when it has only produced one Kentucky Derby winner in 27 years. Street Sense won the 2006 Juvenile and 2007 Kentucky Derby. However, Street Sense was also the last Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to even start in the Kentucky Derby. Among the 2011 Derby field, only 12th-place finisher Stay Thirsty had started in the Juvenile.

Other grade 1 races for 2-year-olds have had been even less productive in producing Kentucky Derby winners, yet graded money earned by running in these races in 2011, will help qualify horses for America’s most important race in 2012.

The last Kentucky Derby winner that also won the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at two was Sea Hero in 1992 and 1993. The last Champagne winner to start in the Derby was Scat Daddy, 18th in the 2007 Derby. By the time the Derby comes around again on May 5, 2012, it will have been two years since a Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) winner made to Kentucky for the Derby when Lookin at Lucky was sixth in the 2010. No winner of the Norfolk Stakes has ever won the Kentucky Derby the following year. It has been since 1984 when Swale won the Kentucky Derby after winning what is now the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, Keeneland’s Fall grade 1 event for 2-year-old colts and geldings.

Yet Dullahan, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity and third in the Juvenile, and Creative Cause, the Norfolk winner and fourth in the Juvenile, join Hansen and Union Rags with enough money already to qualify for the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

There is still the grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park with its $750,000 purse and the $1 million Delta Jackpot (gr. 3) at Delta Downs yet to be run before year’s end.

Previously known as the Hollywood Futurity, the CashCall Futurity has had plenty of prestige in its 31-year history with its winners including Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet, Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given, Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy, Best Pal and Snow Chief.

But the Delta Downs Jackpot was designed to be affiliated with the Kentucky Derby. Sponsored by Boyd Gaming, the Delta Downs Jackpot was first run in 2002 at one mile. The next year, the race was increased to 1-1/16 miles in distance and given a $1 million money with hopes of attracting top horses. The plan worked and in 2006 the Delta Jackpot ran as a grade 3 race.

Once the graded status came, the major horsemen followed. Delta Downs Jackpot winners included Birdbirdistheword (2006), Z Humor (2007-DH), Turf War (2007-DH) Big Drama (2008), Rule (2009), and Gourment Dinner last year. Only Z Humor has made it to the Derby, finishing 14th, but Rule and Big Drama went on to productive careers. Rule stayed on the Kentucky Derby trail winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) and finished third in the Florida Derby before being sidelined by injury. Big Drama just retired as the winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint and earnings of more than $2.7 million.

Pre-entries for the November 19, Delta Jackpot include Drill, the Bob Baffert-trained winner of the grade 1 Del Mar Futurity but a disappointing tenth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; and Jake Mo, fifth in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. The day at Delta Downs also includes the $500,000 Delta Downs Princess among the eight stakes and $2.2 million in purses that night.

There are no rooms available at the Delta Downs Casino and Hotel for Friday or Saturday night next week, so the Delta Downs Jackpot has put “butts in seats” as they say in sports marketing. It has also promoted the racing instituted by Director of Racing Chris Warren who has channeled the casino money effectively into his racing program. As a further indication of the Jackpot quality, trainers Steve Asmussen, Kelly Breem, Al Stall Jr., Bret Calhoun and Jerry Hollendorfer also have horses pre-entered in the Jackpot.

The Delta Downs Jackpot will also create another 2-year-old qualified for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Along with the CashCall Futurity winner, the top four finishers from the Juvenile; Wrote, winner of the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle, at least eight 2-year-olds will have more than the $300,000 In graded earnings, more than what is expected to be needed to enter the Kentucky Derby.

By no means does that mean that all eight will make it to the Kentucky Derby. But it does mean that these eight will have less pressure put on them in February, March and April when other 3-year-olds are trying to accumulate graded earnings. Logic and history tell us the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial and such have the greatest impact on the Kentucky Derby.

Horses in those races are making their final preparations for Kentucky and have already overcome many of the obstacles that will stop a great many of the top 2-year-olds from the year before. And it would be a shame to see an close third-place finisher in the grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes get excluded because a horse earned money in the grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs nearly a year ago.

But that is the way the Kentucky Derby conditions read. And until they are changed, I hope the south Louisiana fans get to see a future Kentucky Derby winner. And I congratulate Delta Downs management for taking advantage.

Favorite Union Rags Faces Formidable Foes In Alpha, Creative Cause and Drill

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is always just a little bit more exciting than many of its counterparts. Sure the $2 million purse adds some additional prestige, but it is the potential of producing horse racing’s next super star that attracts us. Like the annual Senior Bowl in college football or high school’s McDonald’s All-American basketball game, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is that last showcase event of the year for many of these 2-year-old thoroughbreds. Next stop: the road to the Kentucky Derby.

The favorite in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is the undefeated Union Rags (photo right). After breaking his maiden at Delaware Park in July, he easily won the 6-1/2 furlong Saratoga Special (gr. 2) in August and the one mile Champagne Stakes (gr. 1) at Belmont Park in October. His sire, the deceased Dixie Union, was fifth in the 1999 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind long shot winner Anees ($62.60) and counted the 1-1/8 Haskell Invitational (gr. 1) among his multiple grade 1 wins. Dixie Union also sired Dixie Chatter, winner of the 1-1/16 Norfolk (gr. 1); and 1-1/8 mile Pennsylvania Derby (gr. 2) winner Gone Astray, so the 1-1/16 mile distance in the Juvenile should be of little concern.

After winning the Saratoga Special from the front while laying back in the Champagne, Union Rags has the versatile running style that will be among his biggest assets. In the six previous runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, none of the winners have gone gate-to-wire. Union Rags also showed the ability to overcome adversity in the Champagne (his comment line in the official Daily Racing Form chart for the Champagne is eight lines long). After all that trouble that lasted until deep stretch when he was finally swung out into the clear, Union Rags still defeated fellow Juvenile runner Alpha by five and one-quarter lengths.


Union Rags will be saddled by trainer Michael Matz, best known as the conditioner of 2006 Kentucky Derby winner and ill-fated Barbaro. Matz also has a perfect record in the Breeders’ Cup having won the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Distaff (now Ladies Classic) with Round Pond – his only other Breeders’ Cup starter.

Second choice in the morning line at 7-2 is Creative Cause from Southern California. Unlike Union Rags, Creative Cause has a blemish on his record, finishing third in grade 1 Del Mar Futurity behind winner Drill. A closer look at the Del Mar Futurity shows that perhaps Creative Cause should be undefeated after being cut off by Majestic City. Creative Cause was placed second through disqualification, but the spotless record was gone.

The grey/roan Creative Cause comes into the Juvenile off of a nice win in the Norfolk Stakes at Santa Anita, avenging the loss to Drill at Del Mar. Creative Cause took the lead at the top of the stretch in the Norfolk and this time got the jump on Drill, the odds-on 3-5 Norfolk favorite. Being by Giant’s Causeway and out of Apple Blossom Handicap (gr. 1) winner and racing millionaire Dream of Summer, Creative Cause comes from an accomplished family. His obstacle might be trainer Mike Harrington and his 9% winning clip.

Undeterred by running second in the Norfolk, trainer Bob Baffert (photo left) comes to the Juvenile with Drill. Looking for his third Breeders’ Cup Juvenile after winning with Vindication in 2006 and Midshipman two years later, Baffert is also fourth in Breeders’ Cup earnings with more than $10.7 million. Baffert has taken the blinkers off of Drill for the Juvenile, indicating he might want Drill to make a late run down the long Churchill Downs stretch instead of staying within striking distance throughout.

The likely front runner will be Hansen, an impressive 13-1/4 length winner of the Kentucky Cup Juvenile over Turfway Park’s Polytrack main track. Coming off the artificial surface is of less concern being that Animal Kingdom, winner of this year’s Kentucky Derby, also came to Churchill Downs in May after winning at Turfway Park. Also a winner of a maiden race at Turfway by 12-1/4 lengths, the Michael Maker-trained Hansen will need a large lead to hold off the late challengers expected in the Juvenile.

Another coming into the Juvenile off of a victory over Polytrack is Dullahan. The Dale Romans-trainee travels to Churchill Downs from Keeneland where he won the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity (gr. 1) over Creative Cause’s Del Mar nemisis Majestic City in second; and fellow Juvenile runner Optimizer in third. Of concern about Dullahan are his two failed attempts to break his maiden in June and July. Both races were at Churchill on the main track. Perhaps grass and artificial surfaces are more to Dullahan’s liking. On the other hand, Dullahan’s half-brother, Mine That Bird, was quite fond of Churchill.

At 15-1, Alpha needs consideration as well. He was well beaten by Union Rags in the Champagne, but suffered through a bad start and other traffic problems throughout that race. He broke his maiden by six lengths at Saratoga and comes from the barn of high percentage trainer Kairan McLaughlin.


The more one studies this race, the more Union Rags begins to separate from this group. While sire Dixie Union might not help Union Rags at 1-1/4 (10 furlongs), the mile and one-sixteenth Juvenile should be no problem. Creative Cause looks like a potential challenger, but the Breeders’ Cup is a big show that can illuminate a weakness like Harrington’s low winning percentage. I’ll have Drill and Alpha at higher odds on any multi race tickets.

Brock’s Picks
#10 Union Rags
#9 Alpha
#4 Drill

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Tuesday Notes - Juvenile and Juvenile Fillies Roundup, Part 2

From Breeders' Cup Press Release

Animal Spirits – The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf contender walked the shedrow Tuesday morning in the same barn that housed 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame. Trainer Al Stall Jr. said the 2yo son of Arch came out of his Monday morning work of 4f in 49 1/5 fine.

“Being a younger horse with only two races under his belt, I put him in company with Trading Paint and put him on the inside to get him every little bit of seasoning he could possibly get,” Stall explained.

“Robby (Albarado) was in the saddle and said we’re right on schedule. He said he shied away from the purple signage along the rail, but that’s what these young horses will do and he was under the lights. So he was just in company to get around there and get a little more seasoning. He looked good this morning, too.”

Animal Spirits, winner of the Bourbon Stakes at Keeneland on Oct. 9, will return to the racetrack to gallop Wednesday.

Caspar Netscher – Alan McCabe’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf contender Caspar Netscher went out to the main track Tuesday and cantered a couple of circuits before heading back to the barn. McCabe said that he was very pleased with the condition of his charge and plans to do a slightly stronger canter Wednesday.

Daddy Nose Best – Bob and Cathy Zollars’ 2yo son of Scat Daddy has only one win from five career starts, but according to trainer Steve Asmussen, the 30-1 shot shouldn’t be discounted from Saturday’s Juvenile Turf.

“We’re happy he got in (to the race) and I’m very anxious to run him on Saturday,” Asmussen said.

A maiden winner two starts back over the Saratoga turf, he last finished a late- closing third last out in the Summer Stakes.

“The Summer was a strong prep for this race last year (producing winner More Than Real), so we feel good about our chances,” Asmussen said. “I think he ran well in the Summer, but I also think he can run better than that. We had him entered at Saratoga a week earlier than he broke his maiden and he was excluded and didn’t get to run.

“Running him and breaking the maiden a week later going into the Summer had him flatter than we wanted. I think that week would have been very important to him, to get there and get settled in.

“I think that’s why he was so flat early in the race,” he continued. “There wasn’t much pace. He gave himself a tremendous amount to do, and he still loped up there for third. I think he’s a horse that’s capable of more acceleration and a sharper race.”

Julien Leparoux, who has been aboard for the colt’s last three starts, gets the return call on Saturday.

Fantastic Song – Trainer Chad Brown sent the Lemon Drop Kid colt out for a routine 1 3/8 m gallop Tuesday morning.

“He will gallop into the race,” Brown said. “He’s pretty sharp right now.”

Farraaj – Farraaj, trained by Roger Varian went out on to the dirt Tuesday morning to get used to his new environment and walked a circuit of the track.

“It was all a bit new to him and he was having a good look around. It is slightly different to Newmarket,” said Varian.

Finale – Trainer Todd Pletcher was admittedly perplexed when this son of Scat Daddy failed to be a serious threat in his first two starts at Belmont Park. A trip to the turf quickly remedied that.

The 2yo colt responded with three consecutive victories on grass, two in minor stakes. He is 5-1 on the morning line in a full field of 14 despite drawing post 13. John Velazquez has the mount.

“That was the only post position we really weren’t too pleased with,” said Pletcher, who has nine other Breeders’ Cup entrants. “He may have a future. He worked the other day and went very well for a 2-year-old working with a horse like Sidney’s Candy. He was right there with him.”

Lucky Chappy, State of Play – Trainer Graham Motion’s two Juvenile Turf hopefuls both galloped 1m Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs.

Although their training schedules were similar, Team Valor International’s 2-year-olds are “very different horses,” according to their trainer.

“They are very different horses. Lucky Chappy is a very European type. He had a rough go last time in that he walked away from the gate – typical of the Europeans first time (in the U.S.). I don’t think he’ll do that Saturday. I thought he ran a very creditable race, actually, considering how much ground he gave up early.

“State of Play is very professional, very nice work horse in the morning. He’s a really good horse. He’s had sort of a mixed-up month getting here. It’s been disappointing but having said that, he’s had two very good works. I feel very good about running him.”

Lucky Chappy, who finished third in his U.S. debut after winning twice in Italy, will be ridden by Joel Rosario.

State of Play, who won twice at Saratoga to launch his career, will be ridden by Ramon Dominguez.

Majestic City – “We had a good schooling day today,” said trainer Peter Miller. “He jogged, stood in the gate and made a trip to the paddock.”

The chestnut son of City Zip has been listed as the 4-1 morning-line favorite in the Juvenile Turf and has drawn post 8.

“The eight-hole is just right,” said the trainer, who’ll be sending out his second Breeders’ Cup starter. “It will give our rider (Garrett Gomez) a perfect spot to survey the situation.”

Miller indicated that he was going to look into galloping his charge on the turf course Wednesday. His start in the Juvenile Turf will be his first on the grass after four earlier outings on synthetic surfaces in California and one at Keeneland.

“I don’t have much doubt he’ll handle the grass,” he said. “I worked him twice on it at Santa Anita and he went just fine.”

Tequila Factor – A three-time winner from six starts, the 2yo son of Pure Prize needs a scratch by Friday morning in order to draw into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf from the also-eligible list. An undisclosed percentage of the colt was recently purchased from Coby Tresner by Darrell and Evelyn Yates, longtime clients of new trainer Wayne Catalano.

“The original owners were on the backstretch of Keeneland looking to sell part of the horse and take up some of the expense going into the Breeders’ Cup,” Catalano explained. “We did a little research on the horse and Mr. Yates didn’t mind taking a little shot to go to the Breeders’ Cup. The horse has won three races already, and shows he’s got some talent. The Yates’ enjoy racing, so they get to come down and have a good time. It would be nice if they got into the race.”

Should he get a chance to run on Saturday, Rafael Bejarano would be the jockey.

Breeders’ Cup World Championships, Nov. 4-5
$1 Million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (Grade II) 1 Mile (Turf)

Ann of the Dance – The daughter of 2007 Breeders’ Cup Turf winner English Channel was out on the racetrack early Tuesday morning with Heather Irion in the irons. The filly jogged to the wire and then galloped 1 ½ m.

“She’s doing great,” said Irion, assistant to trainer Marty Wolfson. “She’s very happy to be training. She’s doing so well. I wish the race was farther than a mile.”

Ann of the Dance, a 30-1 longshot in the field of 14, finished ninth last time out in the Alcibiades Stakes on Oct. 7 on the Polytrack at Keeneland. She was purchased privately by Farnsworth Stables after the Alcibiades and this will be her first start for her new connections.

Customer Base – Glen Hill Farm’s Customer Base, undefeated in two starts and coming into the Juvenile Fillies Turf off an allowance victory at Keeeland on Oct. 19, might be taking a significant step up in class against a field packed with graded stakes fillies, but trainer Tom Proctor sees potential in the daughter of two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic (1999-2000) runner Lemon Drop Kid.

“She’s a young filly, and hopefully, she’s got a nice career in front of her,” he said of the $170,000 yearling purchase at the 2010 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky sales.

Dayatthespa – The City Zip filly, trained by Chad Brown, galloped 1 3/8 m Tuesday morning.

In her debut at Saratoga Race Course, Dayatthespa won a 5 1/2f race by four lengths. On September 17 at Woodbine, she was second in the Natalma.

“She really looks good physically,” Brown said. “She’s got an excellent post (2). Ramon Dominguez knows her real well and I think she’s sitting on a good race.”

Elusive Kate – The 2-1 morning-line favorite cleared quarantine Tuesday morning and went out to the turf course at 9:30 a.m. for her first bit of exercise since shipping from Europe on Saturday. -MORE-

Owned by Magnolia Racing and Rachel Hood, the Elusive Quality filly, trained by John Gosden, brings a four-race winning streak into the Breeders’ Cup. In her last start, she won the Prix Marcel Boussac-Criterium de Pouliches on Oct. 2 at Longchamp.

Somali Lemonade – The undefeated Lemon Drop Kid filly made her first appearance over the Churchill Downs turf course Tuesday, having an easy gallop.
“She came out of her race at Keeneland (the Jessamine Stakes) well,” trainer Michael Matz said. “I don’t think the 14 post will hurt her. It’s her style to drop back and come from out it. As long as she doesn’t have to go too wide, she should be OK.”

Stephanie's Kitten – Surveyors of the work tab could look at Saturday’s 4f in 54 3/5 Churchill turf breeze logged by the 2yo filly Stephanie’s Kitten with a skeptical eye, but according to trainer Wayne Catalano, there is no cause for concern for this Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey Juvenile Fillies Turf contender.

“She went a little bit slower than I wanted, but we didn’t want to do too much and the grass was a little heavy,” Catalano explained. “She had the major work ten days before in that 59 move (Oct. 20 at Keeneland). This was just a maintenance half mile. She had a strong gallop (on Monday), and we made up for the slowish work.”

The daughter of Kitten’s Joy will once again be piloted by John Velazquez, who was aboard for her recent win in the Alcibiades.

Stopshoppingmaria/Sweet Cat – Both 2yo fillies were on the track for gallops Tuesday, their serious work having been finished over the weekend for trainer Todd Pletcher.

“They’ve both been doing well here,” said Pletcher, who had cross-entered Stopshoppingmaria in this race and the Juvenile Fillies. “She (Stopshoppingmaria) had a nice work over this turf course (Oct. 29). That sealed the deal. Plus, she’s a More Than Ready and we won two grass races in the Cup with his offspring last year (Pluck and More Than Real).”

Sweet Cat is a daughter of sire Kitten’s Joy owned by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners. She finished second in the Jessamine at Keeneland in her last start on a yielding turf course.

Stopshoppingmaria, owned by Repole Stable, broke her maiden on the dirt at Saratoga by more than nine lengths, then was a non-threatening second to unbeaten Juvenile Fillies favorite My Miss Aurelia last time out in the Frizette.

Breeders’ Cup World Championships, Nov. 4-5
$500,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint 6 Furlongs

Seeker – Installed as the 4-1 second choice for Friday’s inaugural running of the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint, Winchell Thoroughbred’s son of Hard Spun swings back off a third-place finish in the Nashua, but trainer Steve Asmussen believes he has a lot more to give.

“I thought his maiden win at Saratoga was impressive and fast, and he did it really nicely,” Asmussen said. “The Nashua wasn’t exactly how we wanted it to unfold, but I didn’t think that he showed a lot of urgency that day. He went through the motions and was just kind of out there for exercise.

“More than the others (Breeders’ Cup horses), we’ve put a little more pressure on him since then, and I think he’s responded. We wanted him to be a little more forward and aggressive. In the Nashua, it looked like he was in the spot, but he wasn’t doing a lot to change his position himself.”

Julien Leparoux, who has been aboard the colt for all three of his starts, gets the return call on Friday.

Shumoos – Fawzi Abdullaa Nass’ colt cleared quarantine Tuesday morning and went to the main track at 6:30 a.m. for some light exercise.

Brian Meehan trains the filly, who is taking on males in the inaugural running of the Juvenile Sprint. Shumoos, a daughter of Distorted Humor out of a Storm Cat mare, will be making her first start on dirt after racing five times on turf and once on a synthetic surface.

Trinniberg – Hopeful Stakes and Nashua Stakes runner-up Trinniberg has worked twice at Churchill Downs since his mid-October arrival and will gallop up to the Juvenile Sprint according to owner Shivananda Parbhoo, whose father Bisnath Parboo trains the 2yo son of Teuflesberg.

“I think he’s adjusted to the Churchill surface better than (Breeders’ Cup Sprint starter) Giant Ryan, and Giant Ryan has taken to the track very well, so that tells you how good this horse has been doing,” Shivananda Parbhoo said.

“Since he’s a 2-year-old, we’ve never worked or trained him with another horse before. We didn’t want to put any real pressure on him,” Parbhoo said. “But after finishing second in his last two races, we thought we needed to change that. His last two breezes have been in company, and we’re really happy with what he has shown us.”

Trinniberg has also schooled several times at the gate since his arrival at Churchill.

“After his last race, the starter at Belmont told me I needed to take the horse to the gate; that when they were putting him in, he wanted to go under the gate,” Parbhoo said. “So that’s exactly what I’ve done. I’ve taken him to the gate three times since we’ve been here, and his last work was from the gate. And each time he’s been sharp.”

Breeders' Cup Juvenile: A Breeders' Cup Race Apart

The $2 million Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile for 2-year-old colts and geldings has always separated itself from most of the other Breeders’ Cup races and it has been because of a number of reasons. When the inaugural Breeders’ Cup was held at Hollywood Park in 1984, it was Chief’s Crown that won the first race of the day, the $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the first ever Breeders’ Cup race. The Juvenile would act as the Breeders’ Cup lid-lifter for the first three Breeders’ Cups, but was moved later in the card in 1987, due to the race’s popularity with the bettors, television audience and television executives with ratings and perhaps a Kentucky Derby to promote the next year. This year, there will be 15 Breeders’ Cup races at Churchill Downs Nov. 4-5, and the Juvenile is one of seven with a purse of least $2 million.

All Breeders’ Cup races have the riches and the prestige, no doubt. The $5 million Classic and $3 Turf are cornerstone events with international appeal and have the ability to impact racing and breeding world wide. But the Juvenile has that connection to the Kentucky Derby. Yes, it is notable when a Derby winner runs in the Classic and only Sunday Silence in 1989 and Unbridled a year later have won both races in the same year. But we haven’t seen a Kentucky Derby winner win a race since Big Brown won the Monmouth Stakes back in 2008; and Derby winners Animal Kingdom this year and Super Saver last, did not make it to the Classic, so the Classic does not have that attraction every year.

Not to be too romantic, but the Juvenile brings with it every year, Derby dreams with blankets of red roses on a sunny first Saturday in May.

True, only Street Sense (photo above right) in 1996-97 has won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and the Kentucky Derby the following year, but that doesn’t stop the speculation and knee jerking. (For the record: I raise my hand in blogging court; guilty as charged on both of those counts.) But Americans are almost possessive of the Juvenile winner. If a horse wins the Juvenile, we expect him on the Derby trail next year. When Vale of York was retired after one bad start as a 3-year-old in Dubai, we at the very least were disappointed and at the most even agitated.

When trainer Francois Boutin and owners Allen Paulson and Shiek Mohammed al Maktoum took Arazi back to France after his sensational 1993 Juvenile, they were harshly criticized by the American press and fans. And when they prepped him for the Kentucky Derby with one start in the one mile Prix Omnium, a group 2 grass race at Saint-Cloud in France, we scoffed at the training schedule while at the same time making him odds-on favorite at 3-to-10 in the Derby. Then Arazi finished eighth in the Run for the Roses which only accelerated the criticism.

We love the Juvenile too, because it gives us that glimpse into what we vision in our minds as the Kentucky Derby future.

Those future dreams do not have to emanate from the horse that wins the Juvenile either. Kentucky Derby winners Spend A Buck (’85) (photo left) and Alysheba (’87) both finished third in their respective Breeders’ Cup Juveniles the preceding years. Sea Hero, winner of the 1993 Derby, was seventh in the ’92 Breeders’ Cup Juveniles and Mine That Bird won the 2009 Derby after finishing ninth in preceding year’s Juvenile.

Other great horses have been defeated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Easy Goer was second behind Is It True in the 1988 Juvenile. Best Pal was sixth behind winner Fly So Free. Afleet Alex was second to Wilko. Lookin at Lucky would have his first of what would be several unlucky races in the 2009 Breeders’ Cup, losing to Vale of York by a nose. Last year, Travers winner and Classic contender Stay Thirsty was fifth behind Uncle Mo, also Classic bound next month.

A Juvenile winner in early November is also perfect timing for the stallions that benefit when their get win the Juvenile. With breeding season coming that winter, many mare owners will be impressed by the Juvenile win and the following extra attention the victory gives to the winner’s family.

Three stallions have had great success in producing Juvenile winners and the sires of juvenile winners. Only Kris S., Seattle Slew and Unbridled have two sons each with Breeders’ Cup Juvenile wins. Kris S. sired Brocco (1993) and Action This Day (2003); while Unbridled’s Song (’95) and Anees (’99) are both sons of Unbridled. Seattle Slew is the sire of Juvenile winners Capote (’86) and Vindication (’02).

Unbridled and Seattle Slew also have additional Juvenile winners, each further down their bloodlines. For Unbridled, it is 2008 Juvenile winner Midshipman, a son of Unbridled’s Song, while Seattle Slew has to go through his prolific son A.P. Indy, the sire of Stephen Got Even and grandsire of Vale of York, to get his other Juvenile winner.

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, perhaps even more than those who take much richer races later in the day such as the Classic or Turf, has a certain mystique that seems to set it apart from others on the Breeders’ Cup slate. The extra significance can be attributed as much to its intangible connection to the following year’s Kentucky Derby than even the rich purse, grade 1 status or Breeders’ Cup glory that comes with the festive day.

But whether it is deserved or not some 2-year-old colt will be the next great thoroughbred hope for a Kentucky Derby winner and maybe even more.

Despite Breeders' Cup Riches, Champagne Thoughts Are Still Of Roses

Last Saturday, Belmont Park presented their prestigious Super Saturday which is also annually billed as the big East coast preview to the Breeders’ Cup World Championships – this year to be held at Churchill Downs in Kentucky on Nov. 5-6. Stars

Uncle Mo (photo right), Havre De Grace, Stacelita and Cape Blanco all put in memorable victories as odds-on favorites and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. 1) winner Flat Out won as the ever so slight second choice at 7-to-5 odds. And now all are headed for the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic, except Stacelita; ($1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf [gr. 1]); and Cape Blanco, who has been retired.

While Saturday’s Champagne Stakes (gr. 1) is similar to those races in that it is a preview to the Breeders' Cup, (more specifically the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) for these colts), the Champagne has that extra little kick. It is the same extra quality that makes the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile or Keeneland’s Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity as captivating as they are. These races are our eyes into the future. Even with the inception of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, the Champagne continues to have that special connection to the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1).

First run in 1938, the Breeders’ Futurity is older and quickly had an impact on the Kentucky Derby run seven months later; Johnstown and Whirlaway, the first and third winners of the Breeders’ Futurity, went on to win the 1939 and 1941 Kentucky Derbies respectively. The first Champagne was run in 1946 and Capot became the first Champagne winner to run in the Derby, finishing second to Ponder in the ’49 Run For The Roses. However, Capot would come back and win both the Preakness and Belmont and be one of only a handful of 2-year-olds to be named Horse of the Year.

It would be 1953 before another Champagne winner made it to the Derby, but Fisherman and Flying Fury the year after, would both be also rans in Kentucky. The 1962 Champagne winner Never Bend, came close, finishing second to Chateaugay in the ’63 Derby that also had Candy Spots finishing third and No Robbery fifth. The next year, Champagne champion Roman Brother was fourth to Northern Dancer’s ’64 Derby.

But it would not be until the wild 1970s, that the Champagne Stakes really began to become a bit of Derby crystal ball.

In 1972, Riva Ridge completed the Champagne-Derby double and before the decade was out, Foolish Pleasure (’75), Seattle Slew (’77) (left), and Spectacular Bid (’79) had all done the same. In the 1978 Derby Alydar came up a length and-a-half short from joining the clug and defeating Affirmed. Champagne winners Forty Niner and Easy Goer finished second in consecutive Derbies in 1987-’88; but Sea Hero was able to hit both winners’ circles in the ’92 Champagne and ’93 Derby. Two years later Timber Country became the last to win both races.

Last year, Uncle Mo won the Champagne and was the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby for much of the winter. Then a liver ailment was discovered after his first loss in the Wood Memorial (gr. 1), and he missed the Triple Crown.

It is a difficult double to hit, the Champagne-Kentucky double. And the seven months between the two races are a long seven months indeed. Expecting Saturday’s winner to repeat in the Derby is too much. I think we all admit to that. And of course, we have that $1 million Juvenile in three weeks at Churchill to compel us for now. And it is not for us to question the first what surely must be the first thoughts of the winning owner, trainer and jockey tomorrow. They’ll be thinking Kentucky Derby. And so will most of us for that matter.