A Quick Start to another HOY Campaign

Veterinary science definitively tells us that horses are unable to read, despite what many think how Mr. Ed, the talking horse on the 1950s television program by the same name, was able to stay on script. Even if they could read, it is doubtful Florida-bred star Ron the Greek knew he was not being considered as a candidate for Horse of the Year in 2012, or even that he is capable of comprehending the concept of an award.

But on Jan. 19, in the $400,000 Sunshine Millions Classic at Gulfstream Park, he ran like he knew his connections had not been invited as finalists to the awards gala, also held at the Hallandale Beach track just hours after race. In other words, Ron the Greek seemed to be running with a vengeance. And if such a thing existed, it may not have been a vengeance against the Eclipse Award voters who snubbed the Santa Anita Handicap (G1) and Stephen Foster Handicap (G1) winner and Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Whitney Handicap (G1) runner-up by not even giving him a second or third-place vote.

It may have been a reprisal against fellow Sunshine Millions Classic defending champion Mucho Macho Man, who had defeated runner-up Ron the Greek by a length and-a-half last year in this race.

Whatever the catalyst for the performance, Ron the Greek put in quite an effort to start his 2013 campaign and another possible run at Horse of the Year.

To those who saw the race in person, on television or on the internet, it was quite the spectacle.

Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott knew early in the race something was different with Ron the Greek, a son of the Hartley/DeRenzo stallion Full Mandate and the Fortunate Prospect mare Flambe’. At the half-mile pole of Ron the Greek’s three previous races, he was 12, 11 and nine and one-half lengths off of the early pace. But in the Sunshine Millions, he was much closer.

“We had asked [jockey] Jose [Lezcano] if he could, to stay a little closer. But I didn’t expect him to be that close,” Mott said of pace scenario that had longshot I’m Steppin’ It Up and wagering third-choice Fort Loudon running in a relatively quick :23.19 for the first quarter-mile and :46.59 for the first four furlongs while Ron the Greek was just four and-a-half lengths behind. “I thought… …the closest he’d be was 12 lengths.” But any concern Mott may have had, ended with three-eighths of a mile to go when Lezcano gave Ron the Greek the go-ahead to make his move.

By the time Ron the Greek hit the top of the stretch, he was seven lengths in front and still pulling away. Bred by Jack T. Hammer of Ocala, Ron the Greek eventually hit the wire more than 11 lengths in front of Cash Rules in second and Fort Loudon in third in a running time of 1:49.19.

While the time over the sloppy track may not have turned many heads, the 115 Beyer Speed Figure remains the best in North America on a main track at a mile or further this year through Feb. 1. And it was certainly good enough for Mott and owners Brous Stable, Wachtel Stable and Mr. Hammer to consider shipping again to Santa Anita in Southern California to defend their title in the Mar. 2, $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap.

There Ron the Greek is expected to meet Game on Dude, another older horse with Horse of the Year aspirations after winning the Grade 2 San Antonio Handicap on Feb. 2 at Santa Anita.

Yes, I admit it is a bit early to start campaigning for Ron the Greek to be Horse of the Year. There are still more than 10 months to go and as the late Hall of Fame trainer Charlie Whittingham said, “Thoroughbreds are like strawberries. They can go bad overnight.”

But if Ron the Greek stays as ripe as he was in the Sunshine Millions, it will be difficult on his adversaries in future contests. And maybe Ron the Greek will get those necessary nods from the voters for the golden trophy given to the Horse of the Year next January.

Despite Training Trends, Holy Bull Remains Important Step On Kentucky Derby Trail

A couple of things about the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) from an historical point of view may help put this weekend’s early Derby prep into perspective. The $400,000 Holy Bull will be run Sunday at Gulfstream Park with a field of six going the one-turn mile. The lead story line for this year’s Holy Bull Stakes is the 2012 debut of Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) winner and champion 2-year-old male Hansen (photo right).

Even if Hansen is successful in his debut, there have been few Holy Bull winners who also went on to don the blanket of roses in the winners’ circle of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1). The only Holy Bull winners to also win the Kentucky Derby later were Barbaro in 2006 (photo below left) and Go For Gin in 1994 but others have faired well enough at Churchill Downs.

First run in 1990 as The Preview Stakes, the Holy Bull was created to replace the Flamingo Stakes that had been run at then closed Hialeah race track. The Holy Bull has been run at three different distances in its more than 20-year history, going as far as 1-1/8 miles, to 1-1/16 miles, to its current distance of one mile in various orders and years.

The shortened distance makes the Holy Bull perhaps a more attractive prep race for horses that are considering the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown and need or want at least three starts to prepare for and attempt to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The Holy Bull is part of a series of graded races at Gulfstream Park for 3-year-olds that also includes the Feb. 26 Fountain of Youth (gr. II) at 1-1/16 miles and the 1-1/8 mile Florida Derby (gr. 1) on Mar. 31. This year the Kentucky Derby will be run May 5.

The 2011 Holy Bull Stakes produced two eventual Kentucky Derby starters in Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Dialed In gave trainer Nick Zito his record third victory in the Holy Bull Stakes last year (along with Go For Gin and Suave Prospect in 1995). Dialed In later won the Florida Derby last year before finishing a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby.

Third in last year’s Holy Bull, Mucho Macho Man would go on to also run third in the Kentucky Derby and join Animal Kingdom and Shackleford as the only horses to start in all three Triple Crown races last year. Mucho Macho Man was sixth in the Preakness (gr. I) and seventh in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).

West Side Bernie, third in the 2009 Holy Bull Stakes; and Homeboy Kris, third a year later in the Holy Bull, would both make the Kentucky Derby but neither fared well in their Run for the Roses. West Side Bernie was ninth behind Mine That Bird and Homeboy Kris was 16th in the Derby won by Super Saver.

Until last year when two Holy Bull starters made it the Kentucky Derby, the Holy Bull has not had a strong connection to the Derby. Recent Derby winning horsemen have leaned toward starting their promising sophomores only twice before the Kentucky Derby and closer to the race than the late January Holy Bull. Of the last five Kentucky Derby winners since Barbaro, all started in only two Kentucky Derby prep races with only Mine That Bird starting as early as February. The 2009 Derby winner began his 3-year-old year running second in the $100,000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park on Feb. 28.

Animal Kingdom last year, Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008) and Street Sense (2007) all made their first starts of their respective years in March preceding their Kentucky Derby wins.

Despite being the expected heavy favorite, a victory in Sunday’s Holy Bull is certainly not a necessity for Hansen. His winner’s check of $600,000 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile insures him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate if he can stay sound and competitive. The Derby is limited to 20 starters with earnings in graded races used to determine the eligible entrants. But the competition only gets tougher as the Derby draws near and it is doubtful that trainer Mike Maker and owners Dr. Hansen Kendall and Sky Chai Racing want to go to Louisville based only on last year’s accomplishments.

A victory in the Holy Bull would be much more impactful for any of the other five starters, of which none have any graded earnings. The $240,000 first-place check in the Holy Bull would place any of the other five in the top ten on the current list of 3-year-olds with graded earnings and likely enough to eventually qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Currently $105,000 in graded earnings makes the top 20, but that is likely to be a very fluid number during the next three months before those Derby slots are awarded.

Second and third-place checks of $80,000 and $40,000 in the Holy Bull respectively will leave plenty of work for those starting this race with a zero balance in their graded stakes bankrolls – but every little bit may help. West Side Bernie, Homeboy Kris and Mucho Macho Man have proven that a third in the late January Holy Bull does not qualify nor disqualify one from making it to Kentucky for the first Saturday in May.

If nothing else, a good performance in the Holy Bull Sunday remains important in creative rose colored hopeds for these six 3-year-olds, their connections and their quest to make it the prestigious Kentucky Derby.

New Sunshine Millions Showcases Florida Stars

The Florida Sunshine Millions takes on a new format in 2012 when the six-race event for Florida-breds highlights the Saturday card at Gulfstream Park. In year’s past, the Sunshine Million consisted of eight races run at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita (four races at each track), with Florida-breds and California-breds competing against each other.

Whether it was the format change or not however, the $1.3 million program has attracted two Champions making their 2012 debuts in Awesome Feather and Musical Romance and the popular Mucho Macho Man, third in the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) last year behind winner Animal Kingdom.

Awesome Feather was named Champion Two-Year-Old Filly in 2010 after she finished the year undefeated in six races including winning the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs. Last year, her 3-year-old campaign was stymied by tendon issues but she came back late in the year to win two stakes. She won the Le Slew Stakes at Belmont Park and the grade 1 Gazelle Stakes at Aqueduct last year before trainer Chad Brown gave her a bit of a winter break. The daughter of Awesome of Course has been at Palm Meadows Training Center where she has been preparing for her return in the $300,000 Florida Millions Distaff. A win Saturday would extend her career undefeated streak to nine wins.

Musical Romance was just named the Champion Filly or Mare Sprinter of 2011 after her year that included winning three stakes at Calder Race Course near Miami, the Presque Isle Downs Master Stakes (gr. II) and the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint (gr. I) at Churchill Downs. Trained by Bill Kaplan who owns the Concorde’s Tune filly with Adam Lazarus’ Pinnacle Racing Stable, Musical Romance will likely be favored in the $150,000 Sunshine Million Filly and Mare Sprint at six furlongs.

Mucho Macho Man makes his seasonal debut at Gulfstream Park the last weekend of January for the second consecutive year having finished fourth behind Dialed In in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. II) last year. He then won the Risen Star Stakes (gr. II) and finished third in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II) at Fairgrounds in New Orleans before going on to the Kentucky Derby. Although he disappointed by finishing sixth and seventh in the Preakness and Belmont respectively, Mucho Macho Man was among only Animal Kingdom and Shackleford to start in all three legs of last year’s Triple Crown.

Mucho Macho Man was then sidelined until his successful return when easily winning an Nov. 9 allowance race at Aqueduct. The son of Macho Uno trained by Kathy Ritvo, is perhaps the pre-race star of the $400,000 Sunshine Million Classic, but figures to be well challenged by Adios Charlie and Duke of Mishchief.

Although Adios Charlie did not make it to any of the Triple Crown races last year, he had a successful 3-year-old campaign winning the Jerome (gr. II) at Aqueduct in April and finishing second in the both Peter Pan (gr. II) and Dwyer (gr. II) later in the year.

Duke of Mischief last year won the Charles Town Classic (gr. III) and was second in the Sunshine Classic to Tackleberry. The 6-year-old son of Graeme Hall is a veteran of the older horse ranks with wins in the Philip Iselin (gr. III) and Oaklawn Handicap (gr. II) and nearly $1.7 million in earnings on his resume.

Hansen Gets Rodney Treatment For An Eclipse Champion

Despite his victory in the prestigious Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Monday night being honored with an Eclipse Award as Champion Two-Year-Old Male, one would think Hansen (photo right) returns to training this year among a wave of popularity. After all, his eventual task now is to carry that success to Churchill Downs in May and win America’s most prestigious race, the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). Nothing in January insures victory in May of course, but with all of the accolades, one would think the reigning champ would at least be the favorite for the Derby.

Not so fast say the future book odds-makers.

Despite his last two significant accomplishments, the son of the successful young sire Tapit is not among the top three choices to the Kentucky Derby according to the Derby future book on gohorsebetting.com. The on-line betting service has Breeders’ Cup runner-up Union Rags as the favorite at 10-1 with Algorithms and Liason both second choice at 12-1. Hansen is co-fourth choice at 15-1 with Alpha. That’s right: Hansen can’t even eek out solo position for fourth choice in the wagering circles.

After a brief break, Hansen has returned to trainer Mike Maker’s barn at Gulfstream Park in Florida where he is expected to make his 2012 debut in a stake race there according to reports.

However, owner Dr. Kendall Hansen has indicated that the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) in late March at Turfway Park in northern Kentucky is the eventual planned Kentucky Derby prep race. Hansen broke his maiden and won the $95,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway in 2011 before winning the prestigious Juvenile. Last year, Animal Kingdom used his victory in the Spiral Stakes as his final race before also winning the Kentucky Derby.

Union Rags was also the heavy post time favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with near even odds and an undefeated record at the time from three starts. Trained by Michael Matz who won the 2006 Kentucky Derby with the ill-fated Barbaro, Union Rags won the Saratoga Special and one mile Champagne Stakes as a 2-year-old but will need to prove he can handle the longer races leading up to and including the Triple Crown. A son of Dixie Union and out of the Gone West mare Tempo, Union Rags is currently the 10-1 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

Algorithms is from the large group of potential Derby horses trained by 2011 Eclipse Award nominee Todd Pletcher and is also one of many sons of the popular and productive young sire Bernardini. Although he has no stakes wins to his credit, Algorithms is undefeated in two races including a maiden win in June and then an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park in December, defeating fellow Bernardini son and Derby hopeful Consortium trained by Kairan McLaughlin.


Liason is another in a line of Indian Charlie sons trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. After losing his first start in a one mile allowance race at Del Mar in early September, Liason has won three straight including the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes and grade 1 CashCall Futurity, both 1-1/16 mile races at Hollywood Park in the late Fall.


Along with Hansen at 15-1 in the gohorsebetting future line is Alpha, also by Bernardini. Another trained by McLaughlin, Alpha is one of the first winners on this year’s trail to the Kentucky Derby, taking Aqueduct’s Count Fleet Stakes Jan. 7.

As a 2-year-old, Alpha garnered some attention finishing second to Union Rags in the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. While not among the favorites in the Juvenile, Alpha compromised his chances before the start of the Juvenile by being fractious in the gate. Alpha still broke well and raced into early competition down the backstretch in the Juvenile, but when the serious running started, Alpha didn’t and eventually finished 11th.


It is still 108 days before the Kentucky Derby which is an eternity for trainers trying to get their horses to the Run for the Roses. And the odds-makers nor their probabilities have any influence as to who will be wearing the blanket of roses at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Like a college football coach ranked number one in preseason polls, Maker and Dr. Hansen will probably tell you they prefer not to wear that extra target on their back as Hansen the thoroughbred begins his sophomore campaign and trip down the trail to Kentucky and beyond.

But for a champion, they they must feel a little too much like a Rodney for a Hansen.

Flat Out, Jackson Bend Make 2012 Debuts at Gulfstream Park

Three years ago this weekend, trainer Charles “Scotter” Dickey won the $50,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park with a promising 3-year-old son of Flatter for owner Art Preston’s Preston Stables LLC. It was a solid three and-a-half length victory for Flat Out in only his third career start and enough to put him on the road to the 2009 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). But feet ailments would soon begin to plague Flat Out and during a sixth-place finish in the Arkansas Derby (gr. 2) in April, a fractured shoulder was added to the colt’s injury list, ending the colt's chances to go to Kentucky for the Run for the Roses.

Disappointed but not discouraged, Dickey and Preston did not retire Flat Out, but put him on a 20-month rehabilitation that resulted in a successful return to the races in December of 2010, winning an optional claiming race at Fairgrounds. Still battling for a full recovery, it would be six months again before his next start, a second place finish to Awesome Gem in the Lone Star Park Handicap (gr. III) last May. But that was just the beginning of a year that ended with wins in the grade 2 Suburban Handicap and Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I) at Belmont Park, seconds in both the Whitney Handicap (gr. I) and Woodward (gr. I) at Saratoga and perhaps the top older handicap horse in North America.

Flat Out ended the year with a disappointing sixth place finish behind winner Drosselmeyer in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs in November and earned some time off for some well deserved rest. But there would be no more long rehabilitation.

Apparently Dickey figures Flat Out has missed enough racing in his career because they start 2012 quickly with his turf debut Saturday in the $100,000 Ft. Lauderdale Stakes (gr. 3T) at Gulfstream Park. The 1-1/16-mile Ft. Lauderdale will be the turf debut for Flat Out against eleven others that include grade 1 winner Teaks North and European group I winner Mutual Trust.

“We worked him on the turf here and decided on this race for a combination of reasons,” Dickey said Wednesday morning. “We still want to try him on the turf and the timing is right to get to the Donn Handicap (gr. I). If we waited and ran him in the Sunshine Millions (Classic on Jan. 28) it would probably be too quick back to make the Donn (Feb. 11).”

The Saturday card at Gulfstream Park also features the grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes at one mile for older horses where the popular Jackson Bend makes his first start of the year. Trained by Nick Zito, the Florida-bred Jackson Bend was last seen finishing third to Amazombie in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (gr. I) in November. Before that he was second to Uncle Mo in the grade 2 Kelso Handicap at Belmont Park and he won the grade 1 Forego at Saratoga at seven furlongs.

The Hal’s Hope has drawn a field of nine that also includes Successful Mission and Soaring Empire, both stakes winners at Monmouth Park in New Jersey in their last starts. Successful Mission is making his first start since winning the $77,000 Elkwood Stakes in May and Soaring Empire returns after winning the $100,000 Majestic Light Stakes in late July.

Filly On Fire Baby Challenges Colts in Smarty Jones
Returning to the Smarty Jones Stakes, the 2012 version runs during a special opening weekend Monday card at Oaklawn Park and is the first in a series of races for sophomores leading up to the grade I Arkansas Derby in April then Kentucky Derby in May. The $100,000 Smarty Jones this year is likely to feature the filly On Fire Baby taking on the boys in an interesting early Derby story line. Trained by Gary Hartlage, On Fire Baby won the Pocahontas Stakes (gr. II) and Golden Rod Stakes (gr. II) at Churchill Downs last Fall against fillies.

Trainer Gary Hartlage talking about On Fire Baby

Further west, early action on the Derby trail gets under way in the $100,000 California Derby Saturday at Golden Gate Fields near San Francisco where trainer Jerry Hollendorfer has two contenders. Hollendorfer will saddle Russian Greek, winner of the Dec. 10 Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate; and maiden race winner Reconstruction.

The California Derby will also include Southern California invader Hodge, third in the Hollywood Prevue Stakes (gr. III) in November; Blacky the Bull and Cahill Chrome, third and fourth respectively in the Gold Rush. The California Derby is the local prep race for the grade 3 El Camino Real Derby in February.

Gulfstream Park's Wide Open Spectacular Bid Stakes May See Price Repeat

The $100,000 Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park has never produced a Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands winner but Groovy still ranks third on the list of all-time fastest quarter and half-mile fractions in the Run for the Roses. After winning the inaugural Spectacular Bid Stakes in 1986, the Texas-bred Groovy lead for just about six furlongs before faltering and finishing last in that Derby.

The last Spectacular Bid Stakes starter to make it to Kentucky was Discreetly Mine, a fourth-place finisher behind A Little Warm in the Spectacular Bid two years ago and 13th in the subsequent Kentucky Derby.

So don’t look for the winter future book favorite to come out of Saturday’s featured Spectacular Bid Stakes for opening day at Gulfstream Park. The Specatular Bid, named for the 1979 Kentucky Derby (photo right) winner and 1980 Horse of the Year, the Spectacular Bid has traditionally been the first 3-year-old stake of the prestigious Gulfstream Park meeting. This year, the seven furlong Spectacular Bid will be run for 2-year-olds for the first time due to the early opening day for Gulfstream Park. At first glance, no Kentucky Derby winner jumps out of the Daily Racing Form, but it appears there are some colts with potential.

Morning line favorite Luke of York makes his first start on dirt after narrowly winning his first two races on Polytrack. The humbly-bred son of Put It Back broke his maiden by a nose at Arlington Park in late September then came back to win the $125,000 Keeneland 75th Anniversary Stakes Oct. 15, again by a nose. Rajiv Marach rides Luke of York for trainer James P DiVito and is 5-to-2 in the morning line.

Vexor, the second choice among the field of eight at 3-to-1 morning line odds, backs down in class after finishing ninth behind Secret Circle in the $454,000 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint Nov. 4 at Churchill Downs. Vexor is the only Bid runner with graded stakes experience adding a grade 2 victory in the Nashua Stakes at Belmont October 2 to his past performances. Also of budgetary friendly bloodlines as a son of Wildcat Heir, Vexor was eighth in the grade 1 Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga, some 42 lengths behind winner Currency Swap. A close look at the John Kimmel trainee before the race may indicate which Vexor will be breaking from the starting gate in Saturday’s Spectacular Bid. He runs as if he has handicapped the race running well against grade 1 or less, but flopping when in the grade 1 Hopeful or on the national stage of the Juvey Sprint.

Town Prize, 8-1 in the morning line, and Ancient Rome, (4-1), have a little more blue running in their blood being by Speightstown and Roman Ruler respectively. Ancient Rome moves out of maiden company for the first time in the Spectacular Bid after winning his second start by more than seven lengths. Town Prize has won two of three races including a maiden and an allowance, but finished third in the $150,000 Colin Stakes at Woodbine in July. Town Prize is another making his natural dirt debut after all of his previous starts were on Polytrack.

Town Prize, Ancient Rome and Vexor are the only three starters to have a wire-to-wire victory under their belts and should provide an honest pace. Vexor will have a slight advantage, breaking from post three while Ancient Rome is number seven and Town Prize eight. Most of the other Spectacular Bid entrants are true stalkers with a fondness to run within two-to-four lengths off the leaders early. Longshot Rex’s Last Tour is the only Bid foe with a win coming from as far back as five lengths. Number one Jordon’s Image (8-to-1 morning line), rallied from ten lengths back four starts back, but only managed a third and it was against maiden claimers.

For Oby may be the choice for some as he is the only starter to have won at seven furlongs, having done so in his last out in the J. Price Juvenile over fellow Spectacular Bid runner Jordon’s Image. At 6-to-1, For Oby is at an attractive price and gets Alan Gacia in the saddle for trainer Pedro Maestre.

Selections
7 - Ancient Rome
2- Rex's Last Tour
3 - Vexor

Florida Win Is No Requisite For Kentucky Fame

This Sunday, one of the premier prep races for the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) will be run in the grade 1 Florida Derby. Not only does the $1 million purse provide plenty of incentive to those connections needing graded stakes money to qualify their colt for the Run for the Roses, but the 1-1/8 distance, calendar placement and tradition also adds to the races allure.

Run just five weeks before the Kentucky Derby, this Florida Derby looks to have one of the deepest fields the race has offered in some time. Probable starters Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are all among leading contenders for the Kentucky Derby with all appearing in Paulick Report’s Vinery LTD Derby Index, a top ten ranking of Kentucky Derby contenders as ranked by 28 turf writers and thoroughbred racing bloggers throughout North America. Soldat is ranked second behind leader Uncle Mo with Dialed In tallying the third most votes. To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty are ranked sixth and seventh respectively in the weekly poll.

Although Soldat, with his $510,000 in graded stakes earnings, is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby should he make it there, Stay Thirsty ($260,000), To Honor and Serve ($250,000) and Dialed In ($240,000) appear not to need more than a $50,000 fourth-place Florida Derby check that push them near the $300,000 mark believed to safely be enough to stamp a ticket to Louisville, Kentucky. But one can rest assured that the owners, trainers and jockeys in this race are thinking nothing short of the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle after the Florida Derby.

After all, since the Florida Derby was first run in 1953, ten winners have gone to take the Kentucky Derby including Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (’06), Monarchos (‘01), Thunder Gulch (1995), Unbridled (’90), Swale (’84), Spectacular Bid (’79), Forward Pass (’68), Northern Dancer (’64), Carry Back (’61) and Needles in 1956 (photo above). Of those, however, only Big Brown, Barbaro and Needles went directly from the Florida Derby to Kentucky.

Spectacular Bid, Forward Pass and Northern Dancer (photo left) all won the Bluegrass Stakes between their Florida and Kentucky victories and Tim Tam won the Derby Trial. Swale, Unbridled and Thunder Gulch also went to Lexington for the Blue Grass before the Derby, but finished second, third and fourth respectively in the Keeneland’s Bluegrass.

Monarchos, and Carry Back went to Aqueduct in New York to finish second in the Wood Memorial before going to Kentucky for their post race blanket of roses.

With the quality of the 2011 Florida Derby as high and deep as it is, one might also think a Florida Derby might be a must for Kentucky glory. However, nine Kentucky Derby winners ran in the Florida Derby but failed to win. Strike The Gold (’91), Cannonade (’74) and Venetian Way (’60) finished second in the Florida Derby before winning the big one in Kentucky. Foolish Pleasure (’75) and Iron Liege (’57) were third, while Go For Gin (’94) and Kaui King (’66) were both unplaced in Florida before their historical wins in Kentucky.

With five weeks remaining until the Kentucky Derby on May 7, the pressure is surely beginning to mount in the shed rows of those with aspirations of taking the coveted race so there is no need to heap on additional albatross of a must win in Florida Sunday. Florida Derby probables Bowman’s Causeway, Arch Traveler and perhaps Flashpoint need the $600,000 first-place check for the needed graded earnings for Derby consideration. But for Soldat, Dialed In, To Honor and Serve and Stay Thirsty, the additional burden of a must-win is unnecessary.

That is unlikely to make much difference for their connections, however. Urgency is not a necessary ingredient for determination. And few run horse races to finish second.

Derby Hopefuls Begin to Face Kentucky Fried Pressure Cooker

Kentucky is famous, of course, for its namesake Derby, quality bourbon, limestone, caves and a certain fried chicken that carries the state’s namesake. Suggesting what KFC founder Kentucky Col. Harland David Sanders might have once said, “start breadin’ the chicken. The pressure cooker is heatin’ up.” That is exactly what begins to happen this time of year for those with aspirations of being in Louisville for the Derby – the pressure begins to build.

There are three big stakes this Saturday on the trail to the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1), and each race has a recognizable star on this relatively young path to the run for the roses.

Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) winner Brethren should go to the post as the favorite in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2) at Tampa Bay Downs in Florida. Just across the state in Hallendale, Florida near Miami, last year’s Champion Two-Year-Old Male and current Kentucky Derby favorite Uncle Mo (photo left), will make his 2011 debut in the $100,000 Timely Writer Stakes. While on the west coast, Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) winner Jaycito makes his first start of the year in the grade 2 San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita.

While two of these stars have something to prove, another is under much less pressure. That is if you look at it a certain way.

Brethren, a half-brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver, must legitimize his easy victory in the Sam Davis in the Tampa Bay Derby (gr. 2). In winning the Feb. 12 Sam Davis, Brethren handled the field with ease, winning by four lengths while under the wraps of jockey Ramon Dominguez. Despite the apparent easy victory, the son of Distorted Humor came under criticism after he recorded a time of 1:45.07 for the 1-1/16 miles. It was the slowest Sam Davis since Andromeda’s Hero came home in 1:46.73 after a bumpy trip in 2005. Brethren’s 84 Beyer from that day is the lowest “Best Beyer” of the 20 leading contenders for the Derby according to Daily Racing Form.

Brethren also has money concerns. He currently is tied with Sweet Ducky at number 20, (each with $120,000), on the graded stakes earnings list used to determine the 20 Kentucky Derby starters. Nobody knows exactly how much graded earnings it will take to get a starting spot in the Derby, but it is safe to say, that $120,000 is not going to cut it. It took $218,750 to get into the Derby last year. The $210,000 first-place check for the Tampa Bay Derby would certainly ease those concerns while boosting Brethren's graded earnings to $330,000. However, the $70,000 second-place payout in the Tampa Bay Derby would likely leave work to do for Brethren to get to Louisville on Derby Day.


Further west, Jaycito also has a few things to prove in order for him to punch his ticket to Kentucky in May. Although he is a grade 1 winner with $200,000 in graded earnings, there is likely some work to do. Jaycito supporters and trainer Bob Baffert (photo right) have other concerns based on his suddenly swerving to the outside rail coming out of the first turn of the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) last Fall. After that erratic move, Jaycito would go on to finish a lackluster seventh in the Juvenile, nearly 20 lenghts behind winner Uncle Mo.

Jaycito has been working very well at both Hollywood Park and Santa Anita coming into the San Felipe, but as Baffert told Daily Racing Form’s Steve Andersen, “So far, he’s minding his manners, but you don’t know what he’ll do in a race,” Baffert said. “It will be interesting. We’ll learn a lot about Jaycito [in the San Felipe].” Jaycito moved into Baffert’s barn following his 2-year-old campaign, taking over for trainer Mike Mitchell, so Baffert has never saddled Jaycito for a race.

Like Jaycito, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Uncle Mo lifts the lid on his much anticipated 2011 campaign. But unlike Jaycito and stablemate Brethren, Uncle Mo will start under little pressure. Of course there is the pressure of his high expectations after his sensational 2-year-old campaign. After he broke his maiden by 14 lengths at Saratoga in New York, he came back to win the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park. Uncle Mo ended his 2-year-old season by producing the most impressive Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victory since Arazi in 1991.

Sure, there is the pressure of being the Kentucky Derby favorite in March. But Uncle Mo leads the graded stakes earnings list with $1,260,000 so that reduces the stress for his connections to a point.

Uncle Mo should be able to outrun his five opponents in the Timely Writer wearing cowboy boots and tight Wrangler jeans, but this is horse racing and heavy favorites lose races (Rachel Alexandra say what?!). So as big a surprise as it may be, even a loss may not be a catastrophe for Uncle Mo.

Yes there will be many in horse racing bitterly disappointed. (Blame, Zenyatta say what?!). And the skeptics will come out of the woodwork as they should. But Uncle Mo won’t be the first 2-year-old super star to disappoint at three. In fact only Street Sense has pulled the Breeders’ Cup Juvey-Kentucky Derby double since the Breeders’ Cup was established in 1984.

But a loss in the Timely Writer leaves some time for the son of Indian Charlie. Uncle Mo will likely start next in the April 9 Wood Memorial (gr. 1) as New York owner Mike Repole has said for months. That means Uncle Mo will go into the Kentucky Derby off two starts (pending injury), and that is not something that should be of much concern to trainer Todd Pletcher and owners WinStar Farm. After all, the last four Kentucky Derby winners came into the classic off of two starts that year. The old handicapping angle of third start off of a lay-off seems to be a prudential formula for the Kentucky Derby in recent years for sure.

Regardless of the spin one might put on a Kentucky Derby hopeful in mid-March, it is without doubt that the pressure is beginning to build with every Derby prep race and crossed off date on the calendar. Some are under more pressure than others. But then again, pressure can be a relative term.

Nobody knows that more than the connections of Brethren, Jaycito and Uncle Mo this weekend.

Fountain of Youth Is Next Step To Maturity On Derby Trail

The first trimester of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brand (gr. 1) season of preparation ends this weekend with the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes (gr. 2) at Gulfstream Park in the biggest spotlight. The $400,000, 1-1/8 race for 3-year-olds will be the last major race along the Triple Crown trail for the month of February with now only March and April before the Run for the Roses in May.

There is also the Borderland Derby at Sunland Park, the Turf Paradise Derby at Turf Paradise in Phoenix, Arizona and the seven furlong Hutcheson Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulstream Park this weekend, but none are expected to have the impact on the Derby like the Fountain of Youth field.

There have been a number of notable Derby prep races in February and most were won by respectful but short of awe inspiring winners. Brethren looked very good while winning the Sam F. Davis (gr. 3) at Tampa Bay Downs, but the Todd Pletcher trainee fell short of impressing the speed figure and numbers handicappers in that race. Dialed In had a nice come from-behind win in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) Gulfstream Park and has the benefit of trainer Nick Zito. But the Mineshaft colt missed this weekend’s Fountain of Youth which at least raises some doubts.

Mucho Macho Man finished fourth behind Dialed In in the Holy Bull then came back to take the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 2) at Fair Grounds. Although the Risen Star wasn’t that deep of a field, Mucho Macho Man seems to be moving in the right direction - and improvement this time of year is a valuable commodity for a 3-year-old thoroughbred.

Further West, trainer Bob Baffert unleashed The Factor in the seven furlong San Vincente Stakes (gr. 3) in February, and again, it was a solid performance. But like Dialed In, Baffert may not have as many opportunities as may like to prepare for the 10 furlong Kentucky Derby. The grade 3 Sunland Derby Mar. 27 or the Mar. 19 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas are possibilities.

This is no knock on the winner’s of the these graded races in February, but the reality is that of those four races only the Holy Bull and San Vincente have had winners go on to also take the Derby. In 1994 Go For Gin won both the Holy Bull and Kentucky Derby and Barbaro won both races in 2006. No horse has ever won both the Risen Star and the Derby nor the Sam Davis and Derby. Three horses have taken the Derby and San Vincente, but one has to go back to Silver Charm in 1997 to find the most recent. The other two were 30 and 40 years previous to Silver Charm in Lucky Debonair in 1965 and Swaps in 1955.

While there has not been a superstar performance among the sophomores this year, many of more anticipated contenders have yet to make a stakes appearance including 2010 Champion Two-Year-Old Male Uncle Mo – set for a March 12 race in either the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream or the Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs the same day.

The other 3-year-old near the top of most Derby lists yet to debut this year is To Honor and Serve, winner of the Remsen Stakes (gr. 2) (video below) and Nashua Stakes (gr. 2) last year. But To Honor and Serve will be making his first start in nearly 90 days this weekend as the favorite in the Fountain of Youth. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott has expressed little concern however, saying To Honor and Serve may be his best chance to win the Kentucky Derby and has seemed pleased with the colts winter training regime in Florida.

The Fountain of Youth will also be the second start of the year for Soldat, a winner of an 1-1/8 allowance race at Gulfstream Park by more than 10 lengths Jan. 21. Last year Soldat concluded the year by finishing second behind Pluck in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. 2T) after winning the grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes at Saratoga last summer, also on grass. But trainer Kiaran McLaughlin had to like what he saw when Soldat seemed to even excel on dirt in that recent allowance win. With little doubt Soldat likes the Gulfstream main track at least.

Also interesting about Soldat is his pedigree. He is by War Front, who was more of a sprinter as a race horse but who also won the minor Princelet Stakes at Belmont Park at 1-1/16 miles. Also known as a sire of sprinters, War Front has San Vincente Stakes (gr. 2) winner The Factor on the Triple Crown trail with trainer Bob Baffert in Southern California as well.

Gourmet Dinner is another making his second start of 2011 after finishing third behind winner Dialed In and runner-up Sweet Ducky in the Holy Bull. However, in the Holy Bull, Gourmet Dinner finished ahead of Mucho Macho Man in fourth. Mucho Mach Man of course, won his next start in the Risen Star Stakes (gr. 2) at Fair Grounds Feb. 19. Trainer Steve Stanbridge has also made a rider change for the son of Trippi, giving the reins aboard Gourmet Dinner to Ramon Dominguez.

Among other Fountain Youth starters is the trio of Shakleford, Casper’s Touch and El Grayling, the top three finishers in a Feb. 5 allowance race at Gulfstream Park, also at the 1-1/8 mile distance. While Shackleford was the winner, Casper’s Touch was closing second after overcoming plenty of trouble in that race.

Like the Holy Bull Stakes, the Fountain of Youth has seen only two of it’s winners go on to take the Derby in Kentucky. Spectacular Bid in 1979 and Thunder Gulch in 1995 both won the Fountain of Youth on their way to the Derby winner’s circle.

It would be difficult to be certain that this year’s Kentucky Derby winner will be running in the Fountain of Youth Stakes Saturday, but it is certainly the most serious Derby prep to date and this field has it's share of potential that previous runnings may not have had. And this time of year, potential is just what we'll be looking for.

The Donn Can Sometimes Produce A Diamond

There is a funny phenomena in sports that has only to do with time. It is the perception of fans and media alike, that early season competition somehow has less significance than the games or races later in the year.

The Red Sox versus the Yankees in May just doesn't seem as important and that same series in September. The Cowboys playing the Redskins during the second week of the season just doesn't pack the punch of that same game during the last few weeks of the regular season.

The reason is obvious of course, in that early in the year, we just don't know what teams are good and what these games may mean come playoff time. We sometimes think we know what teams are good, but often we and every sports pundit on radio and television and in blogs and newspapers are very wrong.

I mention this because Saturday, Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. presents their centerpiece event for older horses, the grade 1, $500,000 Donn Handicap.

It is the first major event each year for older horses and although Quality Road looks like a championship contender, there might be a New Orleans Saint in the bunch too.

That was never more evident than in the 1995 Donn Handicap. Holy Bull was the heavy favorite and brought national attention to the race as the Champion 3-Year-Old Colt the previous year with his victories including the Manhattan, Travers, Haskell Invitational, Woodward and Dwyer Stakes. He was also a local hero of sorts, having won the Hutcheson Stakes and Florida Derby at Gulfstream less than a year earlier as well.

Unfortunately Holy Bull never finished the Donn after being pulled up on the backstretch by jockey Mike Smith. Holy Bull's injury was career ending, but not life threatening, but nobody knew that at the time. Disappointment, shock and concern for Holy Bull dominated our attention as a relatively unknown Cigar won the Donn.

More recently and less dramatic, Saint Liam's story relative to the Donn Handicap is a bit of a diamond in the ruff tale as well. During the previous year, Saint Liam had won the Clark Handicap at Churchill Downs and was a close second to Ghostzapper in the Woodward. It was a notable year, but certainly not enough to garner national attention.

Saint Liam won Donn over Roses in May, Eddington and Seek Gold then went on to win three more grade 1 races that year including the Breeders' Cup Classic. I don't know that I would consider the Donn a turning point for Saint Liam, but it again produced a champion.

Even going back to the 1974 Donn Handicap when it had just grade 3 status, the race has appeared to launch some notable careers. The previous year had been dominated by Secretariat and his historic run through the Triple Crown and beyond.

But the '74 Donn had a 4-year-old gelding who during the previous year had finished fourth, 11 lengths behind Secretariat in the Derby. Forego was his name and he won the grade 2 Roamer and grade 3 Discovery Handicaps in New York to finish his undistinguished sophomore campaign.

Forego won the Donn Handicap that year on his way to his seven eventual Eclipse Awards including three as Horse of the Year. It was also his first of eight wins in 1974, six of which came in grade 1 company.

Quality Road is the 7-5 morning line so it is difficult to attach the diamond in the ruff label to him. But Cigar was 4-1, Forego (photo) was odds-on and Saint Liam was no longshot. But the Donn Handicap has a history of sometimes acting as a catalyst for perhaps exposing greater potential.

And I can think of no horse currently in training that would fit this model more than Quality Road. If not for a quarter crack injury, he would have started in the Kentucky Derby and likely the Preakness and Belmont too. And one could certainly make the case for his potential before he pulled a Kanye West to Zenyatta's Breeders' Cup and dissed the gate crew on national television.

Now he's the heavy favorite in the Donn, but he also finds himself far below the attention of Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta and perhaps even below Champion Older Horse Gio Ponti.

But no matter the winner of the Donn - longshot or favorite - they have often proven that early season wins can influence or even produce a championship too.