Kentucky Derby Bubble At $120,000

This week Churchill Downs released the current rankings of 3-year-olds by graded earnings, which determines which horses may enter the $2 million Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1) to be run May 5.

No surprise that last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Male Hansen sits atop the list with $1,160,000, of which $1,080,000 was earned when he captured the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. 1) at Churchill Downs last November. In his first start of 2012 Hansen was second to Algorithms in the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. 3) at Gulfstream Park Jan. 29.

Second to Hansen in both the Juvenile and on the graded earnings list is Union Rags with $830,000 of which $360,000 was earned in the Juvenile and all earned last year as a 2-year-old. Sabercat is third on the list with the $600,000 he earned in the grade 3 Delta Downs Jackpot run at Delta Downs in Louisiana, also run last November.

However, the most important slots on the graded earnings list are much further down where Battle Hardened, Brother Francis and the filly Disposablepleasure sit tied for 18th with $120,000 each in graded earnings. For it is those three horses and their respective earnings that currently define the amount needed to make the top 20. Twenty is the maximum number of starters allowed in the Run for the Roses.

The owners, trainers, jockeys and fans of all the 3-year-olds currently below the $120,000 mark should not fret too much however, as that number will change many times in the next 77 days before the Derby. Some of the horses currently in the top 20 will be forced out of contention due to injury while others may just not have the Kentucky Derby in their plans. Both instances would lower the $120,000 mark.

Two fillies, On Fire Baby and Disposablepleasure, are on the list and they have the Kentucky Oaks (gr. I) as an option. There are also two foriegn-based horses on the list in Wrote and Genten. Wrote, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (gr. I) at Churchill Downs, is based in Ireland with trainer Aidan O'Brien. O'Brien crossed the Atlantic many times last year with Cape Blanco and won the Eclipse Award for Champion Turf Horse in North America. O'Brien has started two horses in the Kentucky Derby. Johannesburg and Castle Gondolfo finished eighth and 12th respectively in the 2002 Derby. O'Brien has won six Breeders' Cup races over the years from more than 70 starters.

Trainer Yoshito Yahagi has Genten at his base in Japan and has never started a horse in either the Derby nor the Breeders' Cup.

There are some 31 graded races for 3-year-olds remaining before the Derby. That equates to some 150 opportunities to earn graded money, which of course, could drive up the $120,000 number.

Twenty horses have entered the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 and in 11 of the past 13 years. Interestingly, last year Derby Kitten was the last to qualify for the Derby with $120,000 but it took a record $218,750 for Make Music For Me to get into the Run for Roses two years ago. Over the last five years, the final horse to make the Derby field has averaged $132,750 in graded earnings.

Graded stakes are considered graded or group status as assigned to the race by the International Cataloguing Standards Committee in Part I of the International Cataloguing Standards as published by The Jockey Club Information Systems, Inc. each year.

In the case of a tie for the final entry position or the determination of all remaining starters, preference is given to horses that accumulated the highest earnings in non-restricted stakes races. If a tie still remains, the final spots in the starting gate will be determined by lot or a “shake.”

For the first time since 1984, there will be an “also eligible” list with as many as four horses eligible to draw into the field until scratch time on Friday, May 4 at 9 a.m. ET.

Top 32 Graded Stakes Earners
Rank, Horse, Graded Earnings, Trainer
Thru Sunday, Feb. 12, 2012
1. Hansen, $1,160,000, Mike Maker
2. Union Rags, $830,000, Michael Matz
3. Sabercat $600,000, Steve Asmussen
4. Wrote-IRE $556,630, Aidan O’Brien
5. Creative Cause $488,000, Mike Harrington
6. Liaison $375,000, Bob Baffert
7. Dullahan $375,000, Dale Romans
8. Excaper $240,736, Ian Black
9. Algorithms $240,000, Todd Pletcher
10. On Fire Baby (f) $211,729, Gary Hartlage
11. Drill $210,000, Bob Baffert
12. Alpha $180,000, Kiaran McLaughlin
13. Rousing Sermon $164,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
14. Prospective $155,452, Mark Casse
15. I’ll Have Another $151,000, Doug O’Neill
16. Currency Swap $150,000, Teresa Pompay
17. Genten $123,826, Yoshito Yahagi
t-18. Battle Hardened $120,000, Eddie Kenneally
t-18. Brother Francis $120,000, Jim Cassidy
t-18. Disposablepleasure (f) $120,000, Todd Pletcher
21. Mr. Bowling $115,848, Larry Jones
22. Jack’s in the Deck $105,000, Robin Graham
23. Gemologist $103,855, Todd Pletcher
24. Longview Drive $102,000, Jerry Hollendorfer
25. Fly Lexis Fly $99,481, Neil Drysdale
26. Take Charge Indy $98,400, Pat Byrne
27. Daddy Long Legs $94,030, Aidan O’Brien
28. Red Duke $90,823 Maxilead Ltd. John Quinn
t-29. Overdriven $90,000, Todd Pletcher
t-29. Reneesgotzip (f) $90,000, Peter Miller
t-29. State of Play $90,000, Graham Motion
t-29. Thunder Moccasin $90,000, Todd Pletcher

Despite Training Trends, Holy Bull Remains Important Step On Kentucky Derby Trail

A couple of things about the Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III) from an historical point of view may help put this weekend’s early Derby prep into perspective. The $400,000 Holy Bull will be run Sunday at Gulfstream Park with a field of six going the one-turn mile. The lead story line for this year’s Holy Bull Stakes is the 2012 debut of Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I) winner and champion 2-year-old male Hansen (photo right).

Even if Hansen is successful in his debut, there have been few Holy Bull winners who also went on to don the blanket of roses in the winners’ circle of the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. 1). The only Holy Bull winners to also win the Kentucky Derby later were Barbaro in 2006 (photo below left) and Go For Gin in 1994 but others have faired well enough at Churchill Downs.

First run in 1990 as The Preview Stakes, the Holy Bull was created to replace the Flamingo Stakes that had been run at then closed Hialeah race track. The Holy Bull has been run at three different distances in its more than 20-year history, going as far as 1-1/8 miles, to 1-1/16 miles, to its current distance of one mile in various orders and years.

The shortened distance makes the Holy Bull perhaps a more attractive prep race for horses that are considering the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown and need or want at least three starts to prepare for and attempt to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. The Holy Bull is part of a series of graded races at Gulfstream Park for 3-year-olds that also includes the Feb. 26 Fountain of Youth (gr. II) at 1-1/16 miles and the 1-1/8 mile Florida Derby (gr. 1) on Mar. 31. This year the Kentucky Derby will be run May 5.

The 2011 Holy Bull Stakes produced two eventual Kentucky Derby starters in Dialed In and Mucho Macho Man. Dialed In gave trainer Nick Zito his record third victory in the Holy Bull Stakes last year (along with Go For Gin and Suave Prospect in 1995). Dialed In later won the Florida Derby last year before finishing a disappointing ninth in the Kentucky Derby.

Third in last year’s Holy Bull, Mucho Macho Man would go on to also run third in the Kentucky Derby and join Animal Kingdom and Shackleford as the only horses to start in all three Triple Crown races last year. Mucho Macho Man was sixth in the Preakness (gr. I) and seventh in the Belmont Stakes (gr. I).

West Side Bernie, third in the 2009 Holy Bull Stakes; and Homeboy Kris, third a year later in the Holy Bull, would both make the Kentucky Derby but neither fared well in their Run for the Roses. West Side Bernie was ninth behind Mine That Bird and Homeboy Kris was 16th in the Derby won by Super Saver.

Until last year when two Holy Bull starters made it the Kentucky Derby, the Holy Bull has not had a strong connection to the Derby. Recent Derby winning horsemen have leaned toward starting their promising sophomores only twice before the Kentucky Derby and closer to the race than the late January Holy Bull. Of the last five Kentucky Derby winners since Barbaro, all started in only two Kentucky Derby prep races with only Mine That Bird starting as early as February. The 2009 Derby winner began his 3-year-old year running second in the $100,000 Borderland Derby at Sunland Park on Feb. 28.

Animal Kingdom last year, Super Saver (2010), Big Brown (2008) and Street Sense (2007) all made their first starts of their respective years in March preceding their Kentucky Derby wins.

Despite being the expected heavy favorite, a victory in Sunday’s Holy Bull is certainly not a necessity for Hansen. His winner’s check of $600,000 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile insures him a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate if he can stay sound and competitive. The Derby is limited to 20 starters with earnings in graded races used to determine the eligible entrants. But the competition only gets tougher as the Derby draws near and it is doubtful that trainer Mike Maker and owners Dr. Hansen Kendall and Sky Chai Racing want to go to Louisville based only on last year’s accomplishments.

A victory in the Holy Bull would be much more impactful for any of the other five starters, of which none have any graded earnings. The $240,000 first-place check in the Holy Bull would place any of the other five in the top ten on the current list of 3-year-olds with graded earnings and likely enough to eventually qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Currently $105,000 in graded earnings makes the top 20, but that is likely to be a very fluid number during the next three months before those Derby slots are awarded.

Second and third-place checks of $80,000 and $40,000 in the Holy Bull respectively will leave plenty of work for those starting this race with a zero balance in their graded stakes bankrolls – but every little bit may help. West Side Bernie, Homeboy Kris and Mucho Macho Man have proven that a third in the late January Holy Bull does not qualify nor disqualify one from making it to Kentucky for the first Saturday in May.

If nothing else, a good performance in the Holy Bull Sunday remains important in creative rose colored hopeds for these six 3-year-olds, their connections and their quest to make it the prestigious Kentucky Derby.

Hansen Gets Rodney Treatment For An Eclipse Champion

Despite his victory in the prestigious Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and Monday night being honored with an Eclipse Award as Champion Two-Year-Old Male, one would think Hansen (photo right) returns to training this year among a wave of popularity. After all, his eventual task now is to carry that success to Churchill Downs in May and win America’s most prestigious race, the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). Nothing in January insures victory in May of course, but with all of the accolades, one would think the reigning champ would at least be the favorite for the Derby.

Not so fast say the future book odds-makers.

Despite his last two significant accomplishments, the son of the successful young sire Tapit is not among the top three choices to the Kentucky Derby according to the Derby future book on gohorsebetting.com. The on-line betting service has Breeders’ Cup runner-up Union Rags as the favorite at 10-1 with Algorithms and Liason both second choice at 12-1. Hansen is co-fourth choice at 15-1 with Alpha. That’s right: Hansen can’t even eek out solo position for fourth choice in the wagering circles.

After a brief break, Hansen has returned to trainer Mike Maker’s barn at Gulfstream Park in Florida where he is expected to make his 2012 debut in a stake race there according to reports.

However, owner Dr. Kendall Hansen has indicated that the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (gr. III) in late March at Turfway Park in northern Kentucky is the eventual planned Kentucky Derby prep race. Hansen broke his maiden and won the $95,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile at Turfway in 2011 before winning the prestigious Juvenile. Last year, Animal Kingdom used his victory in the Spiral Stakes as his final race before also winning the Kentucky Derby.

Union Rags was also the heavy post time favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with near even odds and an undefeated record at the time from three starts. Trained by Michael Matz who won the 2006 Kentucky Derby with the ill-fated Barbaro, Union Rags won the Saratoga Special and one mile Champagne Stakes as a 2-year-old but will need to prove he can handle the longer races leading up to and including the Triple Crown. A son of Dixie Union and out of the Gone West mare Tempo, Union Rags is currently the 10-1 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

Algorithms is from the large group of potential Derby horses trained by 2011 Eclipse Award nominee Todd Pletcher and is also one of many sons of the popular and productive young sire Bernardini. Although he has no stakes wins to his credit, Algorithms is undefeated in two races including a maiden win in June and then an allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park in December, defeating fellow Bernardini son and Derby hopeful Consortium trained by Kairan McLaughlin.


Liason is another in a line of Indian Charlie sons trained by three-time Derby winner Bob Baffert. After losing his first start in a one mile allowance race at Del Mar in early September, Liason has won three straight including the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes and grade 1 CashCall Futurity, both 1-1/16 mile races at Hollywood Park in the late Fall.


Along with Hansen at 15-1 in the gohorsebetting future line is Alpha, also by Bernardini. Another trained by McLaughlin, Alpha is one of the first winners on this year’s trail to the Kentucky Derby, taking Aqueduct’s Count Fleet Stakes Jan. 7.

As a 2-year-old, Alpha garnered some attention finishing second to Union Rags in the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at Belmont Park in preparation for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. While not among the favorites in the Juvenile, Alpha compromised his chances before the start of the Juvenile by being fractious in the gate. Alpha still broke well and raced into early competition down the backstretch in the Juvenile, but when the serious running started, Alpha didn’t and eventually finished 11th.


It is still 108 days before the Kentucky Derby which is an eternity for trainers trying to get their horses to the Run for the Roses. And the odds-makers nor their probabilities have any influence as to who will be wearing the blanket of roses at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Like a college football coach ranked number one in preseason polls, Maker and Dr. Hansen will probably tell you they prefer not to wear that extra target on their back as Hansen the thoroughbred begins his sophomore campaign and trip down the trail to Kentucky and beyond.

But for a champion, they they must feel a little too much like a Rodney for a Hansen.

Back and Better Than Ever

Happy New Year and my apologies for the late start. My wife and I got hit with some kind of cold/flu “this, that and the otheritis” and have been totally out of commission since Christmas. But now it's time to get started and return to the world of blogging about Thoroughbred racing and breeding.

I’m predicting a good year for horse racing with the return of many stars and a sophomore class that has yet to define their leading Kentucky Derby candidates. Five-year-old Caracortado, last seen finishing fifth to Regally Ready in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Churchill Downs in November, has been one of the first stars of previous years to debut the year successfully, winning the grade 3 (Turf) Daytona Stakes at Santa Anita over the weekend, defeating Really Ready (DH for third) and Victory Pete (second) in the process. Mr. Gruff was the other in the dead heat for show.

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Hansen and runner-up Union Rags are the probably the two leaders of those trying to get to Kentucky for the Derby presented by Yum! Brands, but like recent years, I’m sure there are many more anonymous stars in the class in weighting who will try to knock them off.

The Eclipse Awards nominations have been announced and I’m hoping Havre de Grace becomes the third consecutive female Horse of the Year, something that has never happened in North American racing history.

As Mike Greenburg of ESPN likes to stay, “We’re back and better than ever” and ready to hit the horse racing blogosphere again.

Kentucky Derby Musings With My Friend Captain Obvious

I ran into Captain Obvious the other day at the track and as happens between many horse racing enthusiasts this time of year, 2-year-olds became the topic of discussion – specifically as they relate to the 2012 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands.

As is the case most of the time with Obvious, I was not surprised which horses he was going to follow this winter, through the spring Derby prep races and into the Run for the Roses.

“Hansen is my Derby horse,” the Captain proclaimed as if bestowing knowledge and insight into the conversation. “He’s had three races and not only has he won all three, but he’s been in front from the first jump to the wire in every one of ‘em. Never even been headed yet. He won the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvey at a mile and a-sixteenth, so he’s the Derby horse to watch, that’s for sure.”

Why was I then surprised to hear him say Union Rags was also on his Derby radar. Radar? I thought. You don’t need radar to find Union Rags on a list of Derby contenders. You need glasses and maybe even a new hearing aid if you hadn’t heard of Union Rags. He was a head off of being the undefeated champion of the class when the favorite in the Juvenile, he just missed catching Hansen to finish second. It was on TV and everything.

I won’t continue to bore you like Captain Obvious can me with his plebian prognostications, only to say that he list Juvenile third and fourth-place finishers Creative Cause and Dullahan respectively as the others he is watching along with the winners of the Delta Jackpot this Saturday and the CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park December 17.

“Really?” I asked. And just before I had a chance to get too agitated, Captain Obvious turned and trotted toward the betting windows, disappearing into the simulcasting crowd on his way to betting another 6-to-5 shot to show.

Two of the horses that Captain Obvious may be looking at are Liaison and Arousing Sermon, the first two finishers I the $100,000 Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood Park Saturday. The Real Quiet is the local prep race for the CashCall Futurity.

His other Derby horse runs Saturday, when the $1 million Delta Jackpot features by far the most accomplished field in the eight times the race has been run during its nine year history. The Delta Jackpot did not run in 2006 due to hurricane Rita. Because of the large purse and graded status, the winner of the Delta Jackpot will have plenty of graded earnings to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Entry eligibility for the Derby is based on earnings in graded races. No preference is given to grade 1 races over grade 2 or 3. Management at Delta Downs in tiny Vinton, Louisiana have taken advantage of the clause and are now bringing top 2-year-olds to Cajun country each December.

Run as a grade 3 since 2006, the Delta Jackpot has attracted its first grade 1 winner in Del Mar Futurity winner Drill. Since Del Mar, Drill was second to Creative Cause in the Norfolk and a disappointing 10th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Although listed as the 2-to-1 favorite in the Delta Jackpot, the Bob Baffert trainee will have plenty of competition in Vinton. Norfolk fourth-place finisher Basmatie and the Jerry Hollendorfer-trained Longview Drive are also heading to Louisiana from California. From Churchill Downs comes Seven Lively Sins off a second in the grade 3 Iroquios Stakes and allowance winners Jake Mo and Laurie’s Rocket.

There are others 2-year-olds to keep an eye on so far, outside of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, CashCall Futurityand Delta Jackpot.

For those not in the Captain Obvious camp, Sheihk Mohammed al Maktoum’s Darley Stables and trainer Kiarin McLaughlin unleashed a good looking son of Bernardini on a field of maidens at Aqueduct over the weekend. A bit of a surprise winning at 13-to-1 odds, Consortium stalked the leaders after breaking well before jockey Alan Garcia let him roll 3-wide around the field and win confidently by nearly five lengths.


After the race, McLaughlin told the Aqueduct public relations staff, “[Consortium] broke sharply and was able to sit and wait. It’s another nice win for Bernardini, he is a great sire.” The stallion fee for second crop sire Bernardini, who stands at Darley Stud, has been doubled to $150,000 for the 2012 breeding season due to his great success in the breeding shed. Consortium is also the first foal out of the Machiavellian mare Marietta, a grade 3 winner of both the Iowa and Arlington Oaks during her racing career. McLaughlin also said they were undecided as to his next start or as to whether he will stay at Aqueduct or move to Gulfstream Park for the winter.

On the west coast, the Empire Maker colt Empire Way has garnered some attention after winning a maiden race at Hollywood Park Sunday. Empire Way is out of the A.P. Indy mare Delta Princess, making him a full brother to Alabama Stakes (gr. 1) and Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic (gr. 1) winner Royal Delta. Empire Way is trained by Mike Harrington and was ridden by Joel Rosario.

Who knows. Maybe for the first time since Street Since in 2006-’07 Hansen will win the Kentucky Derby after taking the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Then Captain Obvious and probably a whole bunch more can say on the first Sunday of May next year, they picked the Derby winner six months earlier. No matter how you look at it, it would be impressive.

It would just be a little more impressive if we can find the Derby winner coming out of a rather anonymous maiden race. But that won’t change my friend Captain Obvious. He’ll still be betting show tickets on favorites.

A few others of Note:
Hierro - A winner in his third try at Churchill Downs Nov. 9 against maidens he his by Hard Spun, second in the Derby himself and currently the second leading first-crop sire.
Common Bond - A half brother to To Honor and Serve who had some trouble while finishing sixth to Consortium in the bump and run seventh race on Saturday, Nov. 13.
Motor City - A son of Street Sense who won the Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on opening day Oct. 30. Motor City is trained by Ian Wilkes and is ridden by three-time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel.

Havre de Grace Was Tops In A Difficult Year

It has been a rough year for the Horse of the Year award. So troubled has the year been for those horses pursuing the golden Eclipse award, that I have pondered the dilemma for more than a week since the completion of the Breeders’ Cup, and still, I am not adamant about my selection.

For disclosure, I do not vote for Horse of the Year. That honor has been bestowed upon the folks at Daily Racing Form and the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. But if I did have a vote this year, I would approach it the following way.

It would be difficult to give the award to Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Drosselmeyer (photo right). His only victory this year other than the Classic came in the $60,000 One Count Stakes at Belmont Park in May. No matter the significance of the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it needs a little more help than the One Count Stakes to confirm a Horse of the Year.

Others under consideration had difficult days at the Breeders’ Cup that may have eliminated them from Horse of the Year. The Breeders' Cup is billed as the World Championship after all.

Goldikova was attempting an unprecedented fourth consecutive Breeders’ Cup Mile hoping to add to her record three straight, but was unable to overcome a trip filled with traffic difficulties this and finished third. And one third place finish in American does not a Horse of the Year make.

Classic favorite Flat Out went into the Breeders’ Cup off of a win in the grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup, two seconds in the Woodward and Whitney, Saratoga’s two main events for older horses, and third in the grade 2 Suburban Handicap at Belmont in July. Flat Out also had one of the better human interest stories this year in 70-year-old trainer Charles “Scooter” Dickey, but a fifth-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic compromised the Horse of the Year chances for Flat Out.

Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom should also be considered. Although Animal Kingdom has not run since finishing sixth in the Belmont Stakes June 11, the Kentucky is certainly the most noteworthy race in America and its winner she be duly noted.

There is also some precedent for Animal Kingdom being named Horse of the Year – at least from a chronological standpoint. In 1999, Cat Thief won the Breeders’ Cup Classic at nearly 20-to-1 odds over favored Behrens in seventh. That year Charismatic was named Horse of the Year after being injured in the Belmont Stakes and not running thereafter. Like Animal Kingdom, Charismatic won the Kentucky Derby but unlike Animal Kingdom, also had a victory in the Preakness and in the grade 2 Lexington. Animal Kingdom has the grade 2 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes win to match Charasmatic's Lexington and of course the Kentucky Derby, but no Preakness.

Stay Thirsty is another from the 3-year-old ranks that should get some attention from the Horse of the Year voters. He has three graded stakes wins this year in the Travers (gr. 1), Jim Dandy (gr. 2) and Gotham Stakes (gr. 3). Hurting him, however, was his performance in the Kentucky Derby (12th) and the Breeders’ Cup Classic (11th).

Game On Dude deserves consideration from Horse of the Year voters based on his two grade 1 victories this year in the Santa Anita Handicap in March and the Goodwood Stakes, again at Santa Anita, in October. He was also second in the grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup this summer but probably still needed to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic to solidify the Horse of the Year award. Zenyatta can run second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic and be named Horse of the Year. But can Game On Dude do it? I’m not so sure.

Having the best record in the most graded stakes this year was the filly Havre de Grace (photo left). She won five of seven starts in 2012, three of which were grade 1 including a win over older males in the Woodward. Her fourth-place finish in the Classic and the fact that four of her five wins came against fillies and mares will be her Achilles heel among Eclipse voters.

Unlike Favorite Trick in 1997 and Secretariat in 1972, the 2012 Horse of the Year is not likely to come from the 2-year-old ranks. Like Favorite Trick, Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Hansen finished the year undefeated, but that was only Hansen’s third start of the year and first in graded stakes company. Hansen’s other victories, while impressive with 12-1/4 and 12-1/4 winning margins, came in the $95,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile and a maiden race, both at Turfway Park.

Juvenile Favorite Union Rags has wins in the grade 2 Saratoga Special and grade 1 Champagne Stakes but very much needed to win the Juvenile in order to be considered for Horse of the Year. Instead, a second place keeps him in contention for divisional honors, but probably not for Horse of the Year.

Maybe the Horse of the Year title will go to a horse that did not run in the Breeders’ Cup. Acclamation finished 2012 with five consecutive wins in graded stakes including three grade 1 wins – something only he has accomplished this year. His grade 1 victories came in the Charlie Whittingham Stakes at Hollywood Park and the Eddie Read and Pacific Classic at Del Mar. A tenth-place finish in the grade 3 Charles Town Classic and no appearance in the Breeders’ Cup will be the hurdles facing Acclamation with voters. They will just have to decide what is the biggest detriment to a Horse of the Year - losing in the Breeders’ Cup or not running at all.

It has been a difficult year for racing stars. Again the Kentucky Derby has failed to win another race after the Run for the Roses and a long shot takes the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Preakness winner Shackleford and Belmont winner Ruler On Ice also finished the year with no victories after their trips to the winners’ circle in their respective Triple Crown races.

I don’t have a vote in the Eclipse Awards, but for records’ sake, Havre de Grace deserves to become the third consecutive female to be named Horse of the Year in a close call over Acclamation. Helping Havre de Grace is her appearance at five different tracks this year in four different states. Acclamation raced at four tracks in two states. Havre de Grace raced primarily against females while Acclamation won most of his races on the grass. However, both have grade 1 wins against older male horses on dirt around two turns. Neither Acclamation nor Havre de Grace won the Breeders’ Cup Classic, but it has been four years since Curlin won the Classic and the Horse of the year.

It is not an easy year to vote for Horse of the Year, but it should again go to another female. She may not be as accomplished at her most recent predecessors, but seldom ever have been. What matters is that Havre de Grace had the best year of any thoroughbred this year.

And for that, Havre de Grace should be honored with golden Eclipse Award for a rich and accomplished year.

Kentucky Derby Conditions Help Wrong Horses Qualify

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is in the books and with it, the $1,080,000 in graded earnings that went to the winner, Hansen (inside horse photo right). Favorite Union Rags missed catching Hansen by just a head in the Juvenile, but still pulled down $360,000 for finishing second and pushing him over $800,000 in graded earnings - or money won in America’s most significant races for 2-year-olds. Graded earnings are not so significant now; for Hansen and Union Rags the differences are small anyway. For horses at this level in their 2-year-old career, graded earnings often only eliminate the $30,000 or so made in the maiden ranks.

Graded earnings become more important when planning for the 2012 Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. And when a horse has enough graded earnings to qualify for the Derby by the preceding new year, it makes those plans much, much less stressful.

In the case that more than 20 horses want to enter the Kentucky Derby, the conditions of the race give preference to those with the most earnings in graded races. At least twenty horses have entered the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 with it taking an average of $128,708 to make the entry box over the last six years.

Six months ago, Derby Kitten was the last “bubble” horse to get into the Derby with $120,000. Eventual Preakness winner Shackleford was also one of the final qualifiers for the 2011 Kentucky Derby with $212,000 in graded earnings at entry time. Nowhere to Hide made it into the Derby starting gate with the least graded earnings ($55,500 in 2009) while it took Make Music For Me a record $218,750 to enter in 2010. The Kentucky Derby has been limited to 20 starters since 1975.


Granted, the Derby is still seven months away and the graded earnings list may not be as popular in the water cooler circles as March Madness Basketball brackets or Super Bowl office pools that feature the over/under on how long it takes to sing the National Anthem; but the graded earnings list will be widely followed by racing fans before the first Saturday in May of 2012 arrives.

Whether graded earnings is the best qualifier for a Kentucky Derby field has been the topic of much debate since they were first used to determine the Derby field in 1986. Under particular fire is the rationale behind using performances from horse’s 2-year-old seasons to determine who qualifies for the Derby, run one-third of the way into a horse's 3-year-old campaign.

It is puzzling that the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile is so influential on Derby qualifiers when it has only produced one Kentucky Derby winner in 27 years. Street Sense won the 2006 Juvenile and 2007 Kentucky Derby. However, Street Sense was also the last Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner to even start in the Kentucky Derby. Among the 2011 Derby field, only 12th-place finisher Stay Thirsty had started in the Juvenile.

Other grade 1 races for 2-year-olds have had been even less productive in producing Kentucky Derby winners, yet graded money earned by running in these races in 2011, will help qualify horses for America’s most important race in 2012.

The last Kentucky Derby winner that also won the grade 1 Champagne Stakes at two was Sea Hero in 1992 and 1993. The last Champagne winner to start in the Derby was Scat Daddy, 18th in the 2007 Derby. By the time the Derby comes around again on May 5, 2012, it will have been two years since a Norfolk Stakes (gr. 1) winner made to Kentucky for the Derby when Lookin at Lucky was sixth in the 2010. No winner of the Norfolk Stakes has ever won the Kentucky Derby the following year. It has been since 1984 when Swale won the Kentucky Derby after winning what is now the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity, Keeneland’s Fall grade 1 event for 2-year-old colts and geldings.

Yet Dullahan, winner of the Breeders’ Futurity and third in the Juvenile, and Creative Cause, the Norfolk winner and fourth in the Juvenile, join Hansen and Union Rags with enough money already to qualify for the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

There is still the grade 1 CashCall Futurity at Hollywood Park with its $750,000 purse and the $1 million Delta Jackpot (gr. 3) at Delta Downs yet to be run before year’s end.

Previously known as the Hollywood Futurity, the CashCall Futurity has had plenty of prestige in its 31-year history with its winners including Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet, Preakness and Belmont winner Point Given, Belmont Stakes winner A.P. Indy, Best Pal and Snow Chief.

But the Delta Downs Jackpot was designed to be affiliated with the Kentucky Derby. Sponsored by Boyd Gaming, the Delta Downs Jackpot was first run in 2002 at one mile. The next year, the race was increased to 1-1/16 miles in distance and given a $1 million money with hopes of attracting top horses. The plan worked and in 2006 the Delta Jackpot ran as a grade 3 race.

Once the graded status came, the major horsemen followed. Delta Downs Jackpot winners included Birdbirdistheword (2006), Z Humor (2007-DH), Turf War (2007-DH) Big Drama (2008), Rule (2009), and Gourment Dinner last year. Only Z Humor has made it to the Derby, finishing 14th, but Rule and Big Drama went on to productive careers. Rule stayed on the Kentucky Derby trail winning the Sam F. Davis Stakes (gr. 3) and finished third in the Florida Derby before being sidelined by injury. Big Drama just retired as the winner of the 2010 Breeders' Cup Sprint and earnings of more than $2.7 million.

Pre-entries for the November 19, Delta Jackpot include Drill, the Bob Baffert-trained winner of the grade 1 Del Mar Futurity but a disappointing tenth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile; and Jake Mo, fifth in the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. The day at Delta Downs also includes the $500,000 Delta Downs Princess among the eight stakes and $2.2 million in purses that night.

There are no rooms available at the Delta Downs Casino and Hotel for Friday or Saturday night next week, so the Delta Downs Jackpot has put “butts in seats” as they say in sports marketing. It has also promoted the racing instituted by Director of Racing Chris Warren who has channeled the casino money effectively into his racing program. As a further indication of the Jackpot quality, trainers Steve Asmussen, Kelly Breem, Al Stall Jr., Bret Calhoun and Jerry Hollendorfer also have horses pre-entered in the Jackpot.

The Delta Downs Jackpot will also create another 2-year-old qualified for the 2012 Kentucky Derby. Along with the CashCall Futurity winner, the top four finishers from the Juvenile; Wrote, winner of the Juvenile Turf and Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle, at least eight 2-year-olds will have more than the $300,000 In graded earnings, more than what is expected to be needed to enter the Kentucky Derby.

By no means does that mean that all eight will make it to the Kentucky Derby. But it does mean that these eight will have less pressure put on them in February, March and April when other 3-year-olds are trying to accumulate graded earnings. Logic and history tell us the Florida Derby, Santa Anita Derby, Arkansas Derby, Wood Memorial and such have the greatest impact on the Kentucky Derby.

Horses in those races are making their final preparations for Kentucky and have already overcome many of the obstacles that will stop a great many of the top 2-year-olds from the year before. And it would be a shame to see an close third-place finisher in the grade 1 Wood Memorial Stakes get excluded because a horse earned money in the grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs nearly a year ago.

But that is the way the Kentucky Derby conditions read. And until they are changed, I hope the south Louisiana fans get to see a future Kentucky Derby winner. And I congratulate Delta Downs management for taking advantage.

Most Likely Breeders' Cup Winner In First Juvenile Sprint

One week from today we’ll be enjoying the first day of Breeders’ Cup 2011. Churchill Downs’ Friday, Nov. 4 card has six Breeders’ Cup races beginning with the new $500,000 Sentient Jet Juvenile Sprint (gr. 1) and concluding with the $2 million Ladies Classic (gr. 1). Nine Breeders’ Cup races follow on the card Saturday, Nov. 5 highlighted by the $5 million Breeder Cup Classic (gr. 1).

Perusing through the Breeders’ Cup pre-entries and their accompanying past performances, the horses begin to define themselves in my mind. Where are the key horses? Who is the most likely winner regardless of odds? Who’s the best bet?

Should she run in the Ladies Classic, Havre de Grace (photo right) would be the most likely winner and equally popular with the betting public. Although I wrote in the blog a few days ago about the talent and depth of the distaff division this year, Havre de Grace is in a class by herself against fillies and mares and I would expect her to go off near even odds. In her last race, the Larry Jones-trained Havre de Grace won the Beldame (gr. 1) at Belmont Park by 8-1/2 lengths over Ladies Classic bound Royal Delta, Satan’s Quick Chick and has already defeated the boys once in the Woodward Handicap (gr. 1) at Saratoga just two starts back.

All signs have Havre de Grace headed to the Classic on Saturday where a victory would make her only the second female to win the Classic and a favorite to become the third consecutive female Horse of the Year. Rachel Alexandra was Horse of the Year in 2009 and Zenyatta received the honor last year. By 2005 Classic winner St. Liam, Havre de Grace would also be only the second Classic winner with a Classic winner as a sire and the third to by another Breeders’ Cup winner. In 2004, Ghostzapper won the Classic as the son of Awesome Again, the 1998 Classic winner. Alphabet Soup, the 1996 Classic winner, was by 1985 Mile (gr. 1) winner Cozzene.

Having said that, the “most likely to win” label moves from the last Breeders’ Cup race of the day to the first Breeders’ Cup race on Friday, the $500,000 Sentien Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint. The Juvenile Sprint makes its debut in 2011 and is the only ungraded race on the World Championship menu this year.

Trainer Bob Baffert (left) probably had little to no input in writing of the conditions of the new race, but Breeders’ Cup officials may as well have. A Hall of Fame trainer with seven career Breeders’ Cup victories, Baffert has won the Juvenile (gr. 1) twice and the Sprint (gr. 1) three times. Of three grade 1 races for 2-year-olds run each year in Southern California, Baffert has won the Del Mar Futurity ten times, and the Norfolk and Hollywood/CashCall futurities five times each.

A former Quarter Horse trainer from the Arizona border town of Nogales, Baffert knows how to train very young horses to run very short distances very fast. The only trainer to have more Breeders’ Cup Juvenile titles is D. Wayne Lukas, another Quarter Horse alum, with five Breeders' Cup Juvenile titles.

It would be idiotic to infer that Baffert will win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint every year, but it looks like he will get a good start Friday as he saddles probable favorite Secret Circle.

Ridden by Rafael Bejarano, Secret Circle will be making his third start in the 6 furlong Juvenile Sprint. Secret Circle debuted at Del Mar in July, winning a 5-1/2 furlong maiden race by seven and one-quarter lengths on Polytrack. He then duplicated that effort at Santa Anita Oct. 10, this time winning the $71,000 Jack Goodman Stakes at 6 furlongs by five and one-quarter lengths. Both races are the fastest at their distance among Juvenile Sprint competitors and in both races, the Daily Racing Form trackman described Secret Circle as being “under a long hold.” In other words, there may have been something left in the Secret Circle tank.

Also attractive about Secret’s Circle is that he looks as if he may rate based on his performance in the Goodman. In that race, Secret’s Circle broke well but Bejarano quickly settled him into third, eight lengths off of front runner Sweep Swap. He then swept three-wide in the turn and wore down his foes in upper stretch before easily drawing away.

Many times in Breeders’ Cup Sprint races, the concentration of so much speed creates frantic paces early. While horses have won the Breeders’ Cup Sprint and the Filly and Mare Sprint from gate-to-wire (see Big Drama winning the Sprint last year), the flexibility of being able to come from behind a torrid pace can be quite an asset.


Secret Circle’s main competition in the Juvenile Sprint should come from Hansen, a fast gray son of Tapit who has won a maiden race at Turfway Park and the $95,000 Kentucky Cup Juvenile by 12-1/4 and 13-1/4 lengths respectively. As impressive as it was however, Hansen’s maiden race was more than a second and a-half slower than Special Secret’s maiden race. Both races were run on Polytrack. Hansen’s Kentucky Cup victory was also at Turfway Park, so the Juvenile Sprint will be his first trip over natural dirt at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Steve Asmussen, also long known for success with 2-year-olds, brings Seeker to the Juvenile Sprint. After breaking his maiden in his second start over 5-1/2 furlongs at Saratoga, Asmussen tried the son of Hard Spun in the grade 2 Nashua on Oct. 2 at Belmont Park at six furlongs. There he was third behind fellow Juvenile Sprinters Vexor, the winner, and Trinniberg in second. Although the Nashua was graded, the final time of 1:10.71 for six furlongs was again slower than Secret Circle’s 1:08.27 in the Goodman.

Run as the fifth race on Friday, the Juvenile Sprint is part of the Pick 4, Pick 5 and Pick 6. There is also a Pick3, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta and a Daily Double available, so there figures to be plenty opportunity to capitalize on Secret Circle’s projected low odds. He makes the perfect key horse in any of these exotic bets.

And Baffert should be off to a fast start in the yet to be written history of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint.